EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD rejected at trendline and 50 SMA near $1.134

- Bearish RSI structure favors downside continuation

- A break below $1.134 could trigger a move toward $1.126

The EUR/USD pair is struggling to reclaim ground above its descending trendline, trading just below the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $1.13530.

Friday's candles printed a rejection wick near the $1.13423 resistance—right where the SMA intersects the trendline—underscoring a strong technical ceiling for now.

Price action remains capped within a bearish channel that’s been intact since the $1.14500 rejection in April.

From a structural view, the pair is forming lower highs and lower lows, preserving bearish momentum. A cluster of indecisive candles, including a spinning top and weak bullish attempt, adds weight to short bias near resistance.

The RSI sits at 46.97, slightly below neutral, with its average at 40.77—indicating a slight bearish lean but no oversold signal yet. No bullish divergence is present.

Key to the bearish outlook is the inability to sustain a close above $1.13423. A confirmed break lower from current levels could expose $1.12676 support, with further downside toward $1.12285.

However, if bulls manage a clean close above $1.13530 with strong volume, it may flip near-term sentiment and force a squeeze toward $1.13901.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.13423

Take Profit – 1.12676

Stop Loss – 1.13908

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$747/ -$485

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$74/ -$48