AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

Daily Price Outlook

- Bearish engulfing candle below trendline signals downside continuation.

- RSI points lower, confirming bearish momentum.

- Entry below $0.63985 targets $0.63659, stop-loss above $0.64205.

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading under pressure near $0.63900 after rejecting key resistance at $0.64192. Price action remains capped by a descending trendline that has contained rallies since April 15, reinforcing the short-term bearish structure.

The recent rejection forms a lower high near $0.64205, just beneath a confluence of resistance levels and the 50-hour SMA, currently at $0.63974, acting as dynamic resistance.

The current candlestick structure reveals bearish continuation potential, with a strong bearish engulfing candle forming after multiple indecisive attempts to break the $0.64192 zone.

The RSI has turned lower from 53.38 and now prints at 44.84, suggesting waning bullish momentum and no divergence—aligning with broader bearish sentiment.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $0.63662, followed by $0.63487 and then $0.63335. If the pair breaches $0.63659 with follow-through, the move could extend to test April’s lows.

The confluence of the descending trendline and failure to establish higher highs reaffirms bearish bias. A confirmed break below $0.63985 would validate short entries, targeting $0.63659 while capping risk with a stop-loss above $0.64205.

With both price and RSI failing to push higher and no bullish reversal patterns present (e.g., Doji, Hammer, or Piercing Line), the path of least resistance remains to the downside. Unless price recovers and sustains above the 50 SMA, intraday rallies may continue to be sold into.

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.63985

Take Profit – 0.63659

Stop Loss – 0.64205

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$326/ -$220

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$32/ -$22