AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to recover and stayed under pressure around the 0.6270 level, even dropping to an intra-day low of 0.6264.
However, the reason for this downward trend can be linked to growing fears of a global trade war. The US is expected to announce new tariffs, which could hurt global trade and weaken riskier currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Despite this pressure, the AUD later found some support after Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.6% in February, up from 4.0% previously.
However, the gains in the AUD remain limited as traders await key US economic data. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, due later in the day, could influence the US Dollar’s (USD) movement.
If the data shows higher-than-expected inflation, it could strengthen the USD by increasing the chances of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher. This would add further pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
US Dollar Weakness and Trade Tensions Impact AUD/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing traction and remains under pressure as the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades around 108.00.
This weakness comes after US inflation data showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.0% year-over-year in January, slightly higher than the expected 2.9%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also increased to 3.3% from 3.2%.
These higher inflation figures have lowered expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
However, the CME FedWatch Tool now suggests only a 30% chance of a rate cut in June. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this view, stating that strong job growth and rising prices mean there’s no rush to lower rates.
Meanwhile, a Reuters poll shows that most economists now expect the Fed to delay cutting rates until later this year.
For the AUD/USD pair, the weakening US Dollar provides some support, but gains remain limited due to ongoing trade concerns. US President Donald Trump has expanded steel and aluminum tariffs by 25%, affecting key allies like Australia.
This move has raised fears of further trade tensions, which could negatively impact riskier currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD).
Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady, with officials like Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing a patient approach. Investors now await more US economic data, as any surprises could influence the AUD/USD pair’s direction in the coming days.
AUD/USD Faces Pressure Amid Trade Tensions and RBA Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to gain some ground against the US Dollar (USD) after Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.6% in February from 4.0% previously.
This increase suggests that inflation pressures remain, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. However, the AUD’s gains were limited due to growing concerns over a potential global trade war.
US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff hike on imports, sparking fears of economic strain. Traders are also closely watching the US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, which could impact the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move on interest rates.
Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Australia have added more pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, accused Australia of damaging the aluminum market, increasing uncertainty about whether Australia will receive exemptions from the new tariffs.
Moreover, expectations for an RBA interest rate cut are rising, with a 95% chance of rates being lowered from 4.35% to 4.10% in the coming months. If the RBA moves forward with a rate cut, the AUD could face further downside against the USD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62926, hovering above its pivot point of $0.62860. The pair is attempting to sustain its modest upside momentum, supported by the 50-day EMA at $0.62845, which reinforces near-term bullish sentiment.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $0.63149, with a breakout paving the way for a move towards $0.63357 and potentially $0.63568 if buyers maintain control. A sustained rally above these levels would indicate growing strength in the Australian dollar, driven by risk appetite and a softening U.S. dollar.
Conversely, immediate support is located at $0.62665, followed by $0.62438 and $0.62214. A decisive drop below these levels would expose AUD/USD to further losses, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal.
The preferred entry strategy is to buy above $0.62863, targeting $0.63253 as a take-profit level, while stop-loss is set at $0.62662 to manage downside risk.
Overall, the pair remains bullish above $0.62860, with a break above $0.63149 likely to confirm a stronger uptrend. However, traders should monitor price action closely, as a failure to hold above support levels could shift sentiment in favor of the bears.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains bullish above $0.62860, with $0.63149 as the next key resistance.
- 50-day EMA at $0.62845 supports the uptrend, keeping buyers in control.
- Break above $0.63149 may push the pair toward $0.63357, while a drop below $0.62665 could signal renewed selling pressure.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62926, hovering above its pivot point of $0.62860. The pair is attempting to sustain its modest upside momentum, supported by the 50-day EMA at $0.62845, which reinforces near-term bullish sentiment.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $0.63149, with a breakout paving the way for a move towards $0.63357 and potentially $0.63568 if buyers maintain control. A sustained rally above these levels would indicate growing strength in the Australian dollar, driven by risk appetite and a softening U.S. dollar.
Conversely, immediate support is located at $0.62665, followed by $0.62438 and $0.62214. A decisive drop below these levels would expose AUD/USD to further losses, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal.
The preferred entry strategy is to buy above $0.62863, targeting $0.63253 as a take-profit level, while stop-loss is set at $0.62662 to manage downside risk.
Overall, the pair remains bullish above $0.62860, with a break above $0.63149 likely to confirm a stronger uptrend. However, traders should monitor price action closely, as a failure to hold above support levels could shift sentiment in favor of the bears.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62863
Take Profit – 0.63253
Stop Loss – 0.62662
Risk to Reward – 1:1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$390/ -$201
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$39/ -$20
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward rally and remained under pressure around 0.6260 level on Tuesday. However, the decline came after former US President Donald Trump announced a 25% expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, removing trade agreements with key allies, including Australia. The White House confirmed that all previous tax exclusions had been removed and hinted at possible new tariffs on microchips and vehicles in the coming weeks.
At the same time, the US Dollar gained strength, putting more pressure on the Australian Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, continued its winning streak for the fourth straight session, climbing near 108.50. A stronger USD makes it harder for the Australian Dollar to recover, keeping the AUD/USD pair under pressure.
Strong US Dollar and Fed's Rate Cut Uncertainty Weigh on AUD/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar has been gaining strength, putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, extended its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, reaching near 108.50.
The main reason behind this strength is the growing belief that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts due to rising inflation concerns.
A recent Reuters poll showed that most economists no longer expect a rate cut in March, with many now predicting at least one cut by June. However, opinions remain divided.
The US job market data also played a role in boosting the USD. January’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed weaker job growth, adding only 143,000 jobs compared to December’s 307,000. Despite this, the Unemployment Rate dropped slightly to 4%, giving the Fed more reason to keep interest rates steady for now.
Meanwhile, US economic data continues to influence market sentiment. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219K last week, surpassing expectations and the previous week's revised 208K.
This suggests some weakness in the labor market, but Fed officials remain cautious. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted uncertainty in economic policies, making it harder to predict inflation trends.
Fed Governor Adriana Kugler noted that the economy is still strong, but progress on inflation has been uneven. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned that he would support rate cuts only if inflation improves and the labor market remains stable. These factors keep the USD strong, weighing on the AUD/USD pair.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid US Tariffs and RBA Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar is under pressure after former US President Donald Trump announced a 25% expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, removing trade agreements with key allies, including Australia.
The White House confirmed that all previous import tax exclusions had been removed and hinted at possible new tariffs on microchips and vehicles.
However, Trump later mentioned that he would consider exempting Australia from the steel tariffs, citing the trade deficit between the two countries. In response, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell stated that Australia is actively seeking an exemption, similar to the one granted in 2018.
This uncertainty in trade policies has weighed on the AUD/USD pair, as investors fear a negative impact on Australia's economy.
Meanwhile, the Australian economy is facing mixed signals. The Westpac Consumer Confidence index edged up slightly by 0.1% in February, but overall confidence remains weak due to concerns over household finances and the rising cost of living.
Moreover, traders are now expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates at its next meeting, with a 95% probability of a reduction from 4.35% to 4.10%. The expectation of lower rates has pressured the AUD further.
On the global front, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed some improvement, rising 0.5% year-on-year in January. However, it missed monthly growth expectations, adding to uncertainties, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner and a key driver of the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is facing downward pressure, trading at $0.62745, down 0.01% over the last 24 hours. The pair remains near its pivot point at $0.62606, struggling to find directional momentum as market participants assess broader macroeconomic trends and U.S. dollar strength.
From a technical standpoint, immediate resistance is located at $0.63014, followed by $0.63303 and $0.63612. A break above $0.63014 could spark further upside, especially if buying pressure builds above the 50-day EMA at $0.62422. A decisive close above $0.63303 would indicate a shift toward bullish sentiment, paving the way for a recovery.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $0.62322, with additional cushions at $0.62043 and $0.61711. A drop below $0.62322 may trigger increased selling pressure, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward the lower supports. If the pair breaks below $0.62043, it could signal a deeper correction.
Traders should watch for a break above $0.63014 to confirm bullish sentiment. However, failure to hold above $0.62606 could shift momentum back in favor of sellers, leading to a potential test of lower support levels.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD holds above $0.62606 pivot, struggling for directional momentum.
- Break above $0.63014 may trigger upside towards $0.63303 and beyond.
- Drop below $0.62322 could accelerate selling pressure toward $0.62043.
The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is facing downward pressure, trading at $0.62745, down 0.01% over the last 24 hours. The pair remains near its pivot point at $0.62606, struggling to find directional momentum as market participants assess broader macroeconomic trends and U.S. dollar strength.
From a technical standpoint, immediate resistance is located at $0.63014, followed by $0.63303 and $0.63612. A break above $0.63014 could spark further upside, especially if buying pressure builds above the 50-day EMA at $0.62422. A decisive close above $0.63303 would indicate a shift toward bullish sentiment, paving the way for a recovery.
On the downside, immediate support sits at $0.62322, with additional cushions at $0.62043 and $0.61711. A drop below $0.62322 may trigger increased selling pressure, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward the lower supports. If the pair breaks below $0.62043, it could signal a deeper correction.
Traders should watch for a break above $0.63014 to confirm bullish sentiment. However, failure to hold above $0.62606 could shift momentum back in favor of sellers, leading to a potential test of lower support levels.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62605
Take Profit – 0.63013
Stop Loss – 0.62315
Risk to Reward – 1:1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$408/ -$290
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$40/ -$29
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its downward movement, staying around the 0.6259 level and hitting an intra-day low of 0.6255. The main reason for this decline can be traced to a few key factors.
First, the Australian Dollar (AUD) came under pressure due to weaker-than-expected Trade Balance data released earlier in the week. This news highlighted that Australia's exports were lower than anticipated, which caused the AUD to lose some strength against the US Dollar (USD).
Second, the ongoing tensions between the US and China over trade issues also contributed to a "risk-off" sentiment in the market. Traders are worried about the potential impact of these trade disputes, which is making them more cautious and pushing the AUD lower.
Lastly, although the US Dollar Index (DXY) was relatively steady at around 107.50, the weaker-than-expected US Services PMI data might have put some downward pressure on the USD.
Despite this, the overall market sentiment remains cautious, which continues to favor the US Dollar, contributing to the Australian Dollar’s struggles.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid Weaker Trade Data and US-China Tensions
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) dropped against the US Dollar (USD) after weaker-than-expected Trade Balance data was released on Thursday. Australia's trade surplus for December fell to 5,085 million AUD, missing the expected 7,000 million AUD and lower than the previous month's surplus of 6,792 million AUD.
Although exports increased by 1.1%, they slowed from November’s 4.2% rise. Meanwhile, imports surged by 5.9%, up from 1.4% in the previous month. This weaker trade data contributed to the AUD's decline.
Moreover, the ongoing US-China trade tensions added to the downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. China responded to new US tariffs with its own set of tariffs, including a 15% levy on US coal and LNG imports and a 10% tariff on US crude oil, farm equipment, and certain automobiles.
These escalating trade disputes are causing uncertainty, especially for Australia, as China is a key trading partner. Traders are closely monitoring the situation, fearing that further tensions could hurt global trade and economic growth.
Despite the trade concerns, Australia’s private sector showed some growth in January, with the Judo Bank Composite PMI rising to 51.1 from 50.2, indicating modest expansion. The Services PMI also climbed to 51.2, marking its twelfth consecutive month of growth. While the overall growth was moderate, it provided some positive news for the Australian economy. However, the combination of trade data and global risks kept the AUD under pressure.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62631, down 0.33%, reflecting sustained bearish sentiment amid broader market weakness. The pair remains under pressure below the pivot point at $0.62917, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend unless buyers regain control.
Immediate resistance stands at $0.63262, followed by $0.63556 and $0.63858, which align with previous price rejections. A breakout above these levels could trigger renewed bullish momentum, potentially shifting sentiment. However, given the current price action, upward movement appears constrained.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.62417, with additional safety nets at $0.62061 and $0.61697. A decisive break below $0.62417 could intensify selling pressure, exposing the pair to further declines.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62218 is in close proximity to support, making it a critical level for short-term traders. A bounce from this area may indicate temporary stabilization, but sustained trading below the pivot point at $0.62917 favors the bearish outlook.
From a strategic standpoint, a sell position below $0.62915 is preferred, with a take profit target at $0.62417 and a stop loss at $0.63255 to mitigate risk. Traders should monitor price action near the 50 EMA and support levels to assess potential reversal signs.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.62917, with resistance at $0.63262 and $0.63556.
- Support at $0.62417 is key; a break below could accelerate selling toward $0.62061.
- Sell setup below $0.62915, targeting $0.62417, with stop loss at $0.63255 for risk control.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62631, down 0.33%, reflecting sustained bearish sentiment amid broader market weakness. The pair remains under pressure below the pivot point at $0.62917, signaling a potential continuation of the downtrend unless buyers regain control.
Immediate resistance stands at $0.63262, followed by $0.63556 and $0.63858, which align with previous price rejections. A breakout above these levels could trigger renewed bullish momentum, potentially shifting sentiment. However, given the current price action, upward movement appears constrained.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $0.62417, with additional safety nets at $0.62061 and $0.61697. A decisive break below $0.62417 could intensify selling pressure, exposing the pair to further declines.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62218 is in close proximity to support, making it a critical level for short-term traders. A bounce from this area may indicate temporary stabilization, but sustained trading below the pivot point at $0.62917 favors the bearish outlook.
From a strategic standpoint, a sell position below $0.62915 is preferred, with a take profit target at $0.62417 and a stop loss at $0.63255 to mitigate risk. Traders should monitor price action near the 50 EMA and support levels to assess potential reversal signs.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62915
Take Profit – 0.62417
Stop Loss – 0.63255
Risk to Reward – 1:1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$498/ -$340
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$49/ -$34
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Bias Below $0.62087: Sustained trading below this pivot point suggests further downside toward $0.61324.
- Critical Resistance at $0.62568: A break above this level could trigger a corrective rally toward $0.62922.
- 50-EMA at $0.62432: This dynamic resistance reinforces the prevailing bearish trend.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.61872, down 0.62%, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment as the pair struggles below the key pivot point at $0.62087.
The price action remains under pressure, with the pair facing immediate resistance at $0.62568. A breakout above this level could trigger a corrective rally toward $0.62922, with further gains potentially capped at $0.63235.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $0.61674. A decisive break below this level may accelerate selling pressure, exposing the next support levels at $0.61324 and $0.60890.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62432 reinforces the bearish outlook, acting as a dynamic resistance level. The sustained price action below this moving average indicates that sellers maintain control.
Technical indicators further confirm the downward bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in bearish territory, suggesting the pair is not yet oversold, leaving room for additional downside.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also signals bearish momentum with a widening gap between the MACD line and the signal line.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62083
Take Profit – 0.61324
Stop Loss – 0.62572
Risk to Reward – 1:1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$759/ -$489
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$75/ -$48
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to continue its upward trend and turned bearish around the 0.6213 level, hitting an intra-day low of 0.6170.
However, the decline was mainly due to rising US-China trade war tensions after China retaliated against new US tariffs. China announced a 15% tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports, along with a 10% tariff on crude oil, farm equipment, and some automobiles.
Moreover, China is imposing export controls on key minerals like tungsten and molybdenum to safeguard national security. As Australia relies heavily on trade with China, these tensions increased market uncertainty, putting pressure on the Australian dollar.
Furthermore, concerns over the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) possibly cutting interest rates in February added to the AUD/USD pair’s weakness. The RBA has kept its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 4.35% since November 2023, waiting for inflation to return to its 2%-3% target before easing policy.
Market expectations remain cautious, but Westpac still predicts a total of 100 basis points in rate cuts during 2025. If the RBA signals an earlier rate cut, the AUD could face further downside pressure.
AUD/USD Under Pressure from US-China Trade Tensions and RBA Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the losses in the AUD/USD pair came after market volatility increased due to concerns over the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China, Australia’s major trading partner.
President Trump hinted at speaking with China soon, but warned that if a deal wasn’t reached, tariffs could become much higher. This uncertainty around trade is adding pressure to the Australian dollar, as investors watch how these tensions will unfold.
In addition, Trump recently announced a delay in steep tariffs on Mexico and Canada after the countries agreed to deploy 10,000 soldiers to help combat drug trafficking at the US border. This decision comes right after Trump imposed heavy tariffs on goods from Mexico, Canada, and China, causing further concerns over global trade.
Meanwhile, Chinese manufacturers are shifting production to other countries to avoid these tariffs, which could affect Australia’s trade relationship with China and weaken the AUD even more.
Moreover, the Australian dollar is also under pressure from expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might cut interest rates in February. The RBA has kept rates steady at 4.35% since November 2023, waiting for inflation to fall within the target range.
With economic signs such as a decline in retail sales and a lower-than-expected PMI in China, the likelihood of a rate cut has grown. Analysts now expect a 25 basis point cut in February, which could add further weakness to the Australian dollar.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Trade Tensions, Inflation Data, and Fed Caution
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been stabilizing around 108.70 after losing some gains from the previous session. A key development was the announcement that President Trump signed an executive order to create a government-owned investment fund.
This fund could potentially help the US profit from TikTok if an American buyer is found. Trump has pushed for the US to acquire a 50% stake in the company, and TikTok has until early April to secure a deal.
In addition, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee suggested that the Fed would need to be cautious with any rate cuts due to uncertainties, including inflation risks.
Meanwhile, data from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed that the US Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.9 in January, indicating better-than-expected economic activity.
The US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index also showed inflation pressures, with an annual rise of 2.6%, keeping the Fed cautious about adjusting monetary policy.
On the trade front, President Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they try to introduce a currency alternative to challenge the US dollar.
These developments, along with the Fed's cautious stance, have contributed to the strengthening of the US dollar, impacting the AUD/USD pair.
The Australian dollar is facing pressure as global trade tensions and US monetary policy uncertainties continue to shape market sentiment.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.61872, down 0.62%, reflecting persistent bearish sentiment as the pair struggles below the key pivot point at $0.62087.
The price action remains under pressure, with the pair facing immediate resistance at $0.62568. A breakout above this level could trigger a corrective rally toward $0.62922, with further gains potentially capped at $0.63235.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $0.61674. A decisive break below this level may accelerate selling pressure, exposing the next support levels at $0.61324 and $0.60890.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.62432 reinforces the bearish outlook, acting as a dynamic resistance level. The sustained price action below this moving average indicates that sellers maintain control.
Technical indicators further confirm the downward bias. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers in bearish territory, suggesting the pair is not yet oversold, leaving room for additional downside.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator also signals bearish momentum with a widening gap between the MACD line and the signal line.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD trades below $0.62428 pivot, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
- 50-day EMA at $0.62668 remains a key resistance level.
- Break below $0.62110 could accelerate losses toward $0.61865.
The AUD/USD pair continues to face downward pressure, trading at $0.62202, below the $0.62428 pivot level. A stronger U.S. dollar and risk-off sentiment have kept the Australian dollar under pressure, limiting any significant recovery attempts.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at $0.62668 is reinforcing resistance, aligning with the immediate resistance at $0.62632. A break above this level could lead to a retest of $0.62927, while further bullish momentum may push prices toward $0.63235.
However, given the prevailing bearish sentiment, upside potential remains limited unless there’s a fundamental shift in market conditions.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $0.62110, with a break below this level exposing AUD/USD to further losses toward $0.61865 and $0.61648. A sustained move below $0.62110 could accelerate selling pressure, with the pair possibly extending losses if risk aversion strengthens.
From a trading perspective, a sell position below $0.62425 aligns with a take profit target at $0.61980 and a stop loss at $0.62687, reflecting the ongoing bearish momentum. The market is currently struggling to gain traction, and without a break above the pivot level, the bearish bias remains intact.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62425
Take Profit – 0.61980
Stop Loss – 0.62687
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$445/ -$262
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$44/ -$26
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its losing streak, staying under pressure around the 0.6215 level.
The Aussie dollar has been struggling for the past four days, mainly due to a strong US dollar and cautious market sentiment.
However, the Australian dollar found some support after the release of the Export Price Index. The Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that export prices rose by 3.6% in Q4 2024, bouncing back from a 4.3% drop in Q3. This marked the first increase in export prices since Q4 2023, giving the Aussie dollar a slight boost.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained stable around 108.00, reflecting the dollar’s strength. The Federal Reserve, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in its January meeting.
This came after three rate cuts since September 2024, totaling 1%. With the Fed signaling a cautious approach, the US dollar held firm, keeping pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Australian Dollar Faces Pressure Amid Rate Cut Expectations and Mixed Economic Data
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth straight day on Thursday, but the AUD/USD pair saw some recovery after the release of key data.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that export prices rose by 3.6% in Q4 2024, bouncing back from a 4.3% decline in the previous quarter.
This marked the first increase since Q4 2023, giving the Aussie dollar a brief boost. Additionally, Australia’s Import Price Index rose by 0.2% in Q4 2024, recovering from a 1.4% drop in Q3, with surging gold prices playing a big role due to investors seeking safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, speculation about future interest rate cuts in Australia added to market pressure on the AUD. Major banks like ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) now expect a 25 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February, earlier than previously expected.
This is driven by easing inflationary pressures toward the end of 2024. The RBA has kept the official cash rate at 4.35% since November 2023, but it is holding out for inflation to sustainably return to its target range of 2%-3% before making any cuts, which could influence the AUD/USD pair further.
USD Strengthens Amid Fed’s Cautious Stance and Awaited US GDP Data, Putting Pressure on AUD/USD
On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) strengthened, putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in its January meeting, as expected.
However, the Fed did not signal any immediate rate cuts, which helped maintain the strength of the US dollar.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank would need to see significant progress on inflation or weakness in the labor market before making any changes to its policy. This cautious stance from the Fed further supported the US dollar.
Traders are now awaiting the release of the US fourth-quarter GDP data, which is expected to show a slowdown in growth, with a forecast of 2.6% compared to the previous 3.1%. Inflation concerns also linger, as the Q4 GDP Price Index is expected to rise to 2.5%, up from 1.9%.
Meanwhile, political developments, including the possibility of new tariffs proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, could also influence the USD’s future strength, adding uncertainty to the market.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair continues to face downward pressure, trading at $0.62202, below the $0.62428 pivot level. A stronger U.S. dollar and risk-off sentiment have kept the Australian dollar under pressure, limiting any significant recovery attempts.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at $0.62668 is reinforcing resistance, aligning with the immediate resistance at $0.62632. A break above this level could lead to a retest of $0.62927, while further bullish momentum may push prices toward $0.63235.
However, given the prevailing bearish sentiment, upside potential remains limited unless there’s a fundamental shift in market conditions.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $0.62110, with a break below this level exposing AUD/USD to further losses toward $0.61865 and $0.61648. A sustained move below $0.62110 could accelerate selling pressure, with the pair possibly extending losses if risk aversion strengthens.
From a trading perspective, a sell position below $0.62425 aligns with a take profit target at $0.61980 and a stop loss at $0.62687, reflecting the ongoing bearish momentum. The market is currently struggling to gain traction, and without a break above the pivot level, the bearish bias remains intact.
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