AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and extended its losses for the third consecutive session around $0.6285 on Thursday.
However, the pair found some support as the US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and growing concerns over a potential recession.
Despite this, the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to gain traction following a sharp drop in Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations and rising global trade tensions, which weighed on market sentiment.
AUD/USD Pressured by Trade Disputes and Weak Inflation Expectations
The Australian Dollar came under fresh selling pressure after US President Donald Trump confirmed that Australia would not be exempt from the 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel. This decision heightened trade concerns and weighed on market sentiment.
At the same time, Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations dropped sharply to 3.6% in March from 4.6% in February, the lowest level since April 2024. This unexpected decline raised concerns about inflation in Australia, making it harder for the AUD to recover.
Adding to the pressure, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that Australia would not respond with its own tariffs against the US.He explained that retaliatory measures would only raise costs for Australian consumers and push inflation even higher.
This decision left the Australian Dollar more exposed to trade uncertainties, adding to its weakness in the market.
US Dollar Remains Subdued Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar struggled as the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 103.50. Traders analyzed the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed that inflation slowed in February.
The report increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates sooner than expected. Monthly headline inflation dropped to 0.2% in February from 0.5% in January, while core inflation also eased to 0.2%, missing the expected 0.3%. The weaker inflation numbers reduced demand for the US Dollar, providing some support to the AUD/USD pair.
However, market sentiment turned negative after the European Union (EU) responded to US tariffs with its own measures. The US had imposed a 25% levy on European steel and aluminum, and in retaliation, the EU announced tariffs on $26 billion worth of US goods.
This move added to global trade uncertainty. At the same time, trade tensions between the US and China remained unresolved, with reports indicating that negotiations between the two countries had stalled, further weighing on market confidence.
RBA Policy Outlook and Market Focus on Key US Data
Investors are keeping a close eye on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and its policy outlook, especially after recent economic data reduced expectations for more rate cuts.
Australia’s economy showed unexpected strength, with growth surpassing forecasts and picking up for the first time in over a year.
However, the RBA remains cautious, as global trade uncertainties and weakening consumer confidence could still influence future policy decisions.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on Thursday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and weekly jobless claims. These reports could offer new clues about the US economy and impact the direction of the US Dollar.
If the data comes in stronger or weaker than expected, it may create market volatility and influence the AUD/USD pair in the short term.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is struggling to gain momentum, with AUD/USD trading at $0.6296, down marginally as traders assess shifting market sentiment.
The pair remains under pressure below its pivot point at $0.6327, signaling potential downside risks in the near term. Despite attempts at recovery, the 50-day EMA at $0.6298 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, keeping a lid on bullish attempts.
If AUD/USD remains below $0.6327, sellers could push the pair toward immediate support at $0.6268, with a break lower exposing $0.6233 and $0.6198 as next downside targets.
However, should buyers regain control, resistance stands at $0.6355, followed by $0.6383 and $0.6407, which will need to be cleared for a shift in momentum.
Macroeconomic factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and risk sentiment in global markets, will play a crucial role in the Aussie dollar’s direction.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance on monetary policy also remains in focus, with any hawkish signals potentially providing support to the currency.
For now, AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.6309, with sellers targeting key support levels. A sustained move below $0.6268 could accelerate losses, while a break above resistance at $0.6355 would indicate a potential reversal.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.6309, with sellers eyeing support at $0.6268 and $0.6233.
- The 50-day EMA at $0.6298 is capping upside moves, reinforcing near-term bearish sentiment.
- A breakout above $0.6355 could shift momentum, potentially targeting $0.6383 and higher levels.
The Australian dollar is struggling to gain momentum, with AUD/USD trading at $0.6296, down marginally as traders assess shifting market sentiment. The pair remains under pressure below its pivot point at $0.6327, signaling potential downside risks in the near term. Despite attempts at recovery, the 50-day EMA at $0.6298 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, keeping a lid on bullish attempts.
If AUD/USD remains below $0.6327, sellers could push the pair toward immediate support at $0.6268, with a break lower exposing $0.6233 and $0.6198 as next downside targets. However, should buyers regain control, resistance stands at $0.6355, followed by $0.6383 and $0.6407, which will need to be cleared for a shift in momentum.
Macroeconomic factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and risk sentiment in global markets, will play a crucial role in the Aussie dollar’s direction. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance on monetary policy also remains in focus, with any hawkish signals potentially providing support to the currency.
For now, AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.6309, with sellers targeting key support levels. A sustained move below $0.6268 could accelerate losses, while a break above resistance at $0.6355 would indicate a potential reversal.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.63096
Take Profit – 0.62674
Stop Loss – 0.63383
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$422/ -$287
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$42/ -$28
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite deepening deflationary concerns in China, the Australian Dollar (AUD) has regained traction against the US Dollar (USD), trading around the 0.6289 level.
However, the weaker US Dollar and market expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts have provided support to the AUD/USD pair, even as trade tensions and economic uncertainty persist.
China's Deepening Deflationary Pressures
On the data front, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) dropped by 0.7% year-over-year in February, worse than the expected 0.5% decline.
This is the first time China has experienced consumer deflation since January 2024, mainly due to weaker demand after the Spring Festival.
Monthly CPI inflation also fell to -0.2%, showing low price pressures in the Chinese economy. Since China is Australia’s biggest trading partner, its slowdown is affecting the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD Finds Support Amid Weaker US Dollar and Rate Cut Speculation
Despite these headwinds, the AUD/USD pair found support as the US Dollar struggled. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains subdued around 103.80, as concerns over tariff policy uncertainty and weaker US labor market data have reinforced expectations of multiple Federal Reserve rate cuts this year.
On the data front, the February’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed only 151,000 new jobs, missing the 160,000 forecast and adding to speculation that the Fed will ease monetary policy.
Traders now anticipate a total of 75 basis points (bps) in rate cuts, with a June cut fully priced in. The Federal Reserve’s blackout period ahead of its March 19 meeting has limited further guidance, keeping market focus on upcoming economic data, particularly the February Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
Australia’s Economic Developments and RBA Outlook
At home, Australia’s economic data has been mixed. The Westpac Consumer Confidence index rose 4% in March to 95.9, reaching its highest level in three years.
The improved sentiment is attributed to the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate cut in February and easing cost-of-living pressures.
However, Australia’s 10-year government bond yield declined to 4.39% as escalating global trade tensions dampened investor appetite for risk.
The RBA’s policy outlook remains a focal point, especially after stronger-than-expected economic growth reduced expectations of additional rate cuts.
The latest RBA Meeting Minutes signaled a cautious stance, clarifying that February’s rate cut does not indicate a broader easing cycle.
Geopolitical and Trade Uncertainty Weigh on Sentiment
Apart from this, trade tensions between the US and China are still unresolved, adding to the uncertainty. China started new tariffs on some US farm products on Monday after the US raised tariffs on Chinese imports from 10% to 20%.
China also put a 100% tariff on Canadian rapeseed oil and other farm goods, making global trade more uncertain.
Meanwhile, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick confirmed that the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will take effect on Wednesday, despite calls from US businesses for postponement.
These protectionist measures have heightened concerns over a global economic slowdown, influencing market sentiment and adding to volatility in currency markets.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor the US CPI release for further clues on inflation trends and Federal Reserve policy direction.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62633, slipping 0.05% as the market struggles to find bullish momentum. The pair remains under pressure, trading below the pivot point of $0.62829, signaling a bearish bias in the short term.
The 50-day EMA at $0.63087 serves as immediate resistance, reinforcing downward pressure on the Australian dollar. A break above this level could push the pair toward $0.63287, with further resistance at $0.63650 and $0.64051.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $0.62465. A decisive break below this level could expose the pair to $0.62201, with deeper losses potentially extending to $0.61875. The overall structure remains weak, with sellers controlling price action as risk sentiment continues to weigh on the currency.
For traders, the technical setup suggests a sell position below $0.62826, targeting $0.62468, with a stop loss at $0.63092.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.62829, with key resistance at $0.63087 and $0.63287.
- Support at $0.62465 is critical; a break below could push the pair toward $0.62201 and $0.61875.
- Traders favor selling below $0.62826, targeting $0.62468, with a stop loss at $0.63092.
The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62633, slipping 0.05% as the market struggles to find bullish momentum. The pair remains under pressure, trading below the pivot point of $0.62829, signaling a bearish bias in the short term.
The 50-day EMA at $0.63087 serves as immediate resistance, reinforcing downward pressure on the Australian dollar. A break above this level could push the pair toward $0.63287, with further resistance at $0.63650 and $0.64051.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $0.62465. A decisive break below this level could expose the pair to $0.62201, with deeper losses potentially extending to $0.61875. The overall structure remains weak, with sellers controlling price action as risk sentiment continues to weigh on the currency.
For traders, the technical setup suggests a sell position below $0.62826, targeting $0.62468, with a stop loss at $0.63092.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.62826
Take Profit – 0.62468
Stop Loss – 0.63092
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$358/ -$266
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$26
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD stays above $0.63386, signaling near-term bullish momentum.
- A breakout above $0.63650 could push prices toward $0.64051 and $0.64452.
- Failure to hold $0.63035 may lead to downside pressure toward $0.62681.
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63392, showing resilience above its pivot point of $0.63386, as traders gauge market sentiment ahead of key U.S. and Australian economic data.
The pair has remained in a tight consolidation phase, but the short-term technical setup suggests a potential breakout if buying pressure intensifies.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62483 provides solid dynamic support, reinforcing the pair’s near-term bullish outlook. Immediate resistance stands at $0.63650, and a decisive break above this level could push AUD/USD toward $0.64051, where further bullish momentum may emerge.
A move past this resistance zone would set up a potential rally toward $0.64452, marking the next key level for traders to monitor.
On the downside, the immediate support level is at $0.63035, followed by $0.62681 and $0.62326. A breakdown below the pivot point could trigger selling pressure, exposing the pair to further declines, particularly if global risk sentiment weakens or the U.S. dollar strengthens on positive data.
Macroeconomic factors remain critical in shaping AUD/USD’s trajectory. The Australian dollar has found support from stabilizing commodity prices and expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve stance on interest rates.
However, any surprises in upcoming U.S. employment data or inflation readings could drive volatility in the pair.
For now, traders should watch for a sustained move above $0.63650 as confirmation of renewed bullish strength. A failure to break this resistance could lead to further consolidation, keeping the pair range-bound in the short term.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.63325
Take Profit – 0.63819
Stop Loss – 0.63029
Risk to Reward – 1: 6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$494/ -$296
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$49/ -$29
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair extended its gains, holding steady around the 0.6345 level as the US dollar remained under pressure amid improved risk sentiment and weaker US economic data.
Market confidence received a boost after the White House announced a temporary exemption for automakers from newly imposed import tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
Moreover, the administration is considering tariff exclusions for certain agricultural products. This development helped ease investor concerns, supporting risk-sensitive assets like the Australian Dollar.
Australia’s Trade and Economic Data Support AUD/USD
On the AUD front, the Australian economy continues to show strength, with positive trade and economic data boosting the AUD.
Australia’s trade surplus rose to 5,620 million in January, exceeding the expected 5,500 million and improving from the previous 4,924 million.
The rise in exports, particularly non-monetary gold, combined with a decline in imports, supported the trade balance.
Moreover, building permits in Australia surged by 6.3% in January, marking the second consecutive month of expansion and the fastest growth rate since July 2023. Therefore, the strong domestic data provided further support for the Australian Dollar, allowing it to maintain its gains against the Greenback.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Economic Concerns
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar faced downward pressure as economic concerns mounted. On the data front, the US ADP Employment Change for February reported only 77K new jobs, significantly below the forecast of 140K and the previous month’s 186K.
Investors are now awaiting the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which is expected to show a modest rebound to 160K jobs in February.
Meanwhile, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in slightly lower at 50.3 versus the expected 50.5, further fueling concerns about economic momentum. Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book for March highlighted uncertainties stemming from Trump’s trade policies, signaling potential strain on economic activity.
Therefore, the weaker US economic data and Fed's Beige Book uncertainties pressured the USD, boosting AUD/USD. Investors anticipate a dovish Fed stance, supporting the Aussie as risk sentiment improves.
Geopolitical Tensions and China’s Economic Outlook Impact AUD/USD
Despite the strong domestic data, the Australian Dollar’s gains could be limited due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. However, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson stated that China is prepared to respond to any escalation in tariffs imposed by the US.
Given China’s status as Australia’s largest trading partner, heightened trade tensions could weigh on the Aussie Dollar.
On a positive note, China’s Services PMI unexpectedly rose to 51.4 in February from 51.0 in January, exceeding market expectations.
Additionally, Chinese authorities set a target of approximately 5% economic growth for 2025, with a 2% goal for the Consumer Price Index (CPI). These factors could provide some support to the Australian Dollar, given its close economic ties with China.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.63392, showing resilience above its pivot point of $0.63386, as traders gauge market sentiment ahead of key U.S. and Australian economic data.
The pair has remained in a tight consolidation phase, but the short-term technical setup suggests a potential breakout if buying pressure intensifies.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62483 provides solid dynamic support, reinforcing the pair’s near-term bullish outlook. Immediate resistance stands at $0.63650, and a decisive break above this level could push AUD/USD toward $0.64051, where further bullish momentum may emerge.
A move past this resistance zone would set up a potential rally toward $0.64452, marking the next key level for traders to monitor.
On the downside, the immediate support level is at $0.63035, followed by $0.62681 and $0.62326. A breakdown below the pivot point could trigger selling pressure, exposing the pair to further declines, particularly if global risk sentiment weakens or the U.S. dollar strengthens on positive data.
Macroeconomic factors remain critical in shaping AUD/USD’s trajectory. The Australian dollar has found support from stabilizing commodity prices and expectations of a less aggressive Federal Reserve stance on interest rates.
However, any surprises in upcoming U.S. employment data or inflation readings could drive volatility in the pair.
For now, traders should watch for a sustained move above $0.63650 as confirmation of renewed bullish strength. A failure to break this resistance could lead to further consolidation, keeping the pair range-bound in the short term.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD remains weak below $0.62494, with the 50-day EMA at $0.62496 acting as strong resistance.
- Immediate support at $0.61885—failure to hold could accelerate losses toward $0.61407.
- Buy positions above $0.61885 are favorable, with a take-profit target at $0.62499 and a stop-loss at $0.61529.
The Australian dollar is trading at $0.62062, slipping below its pivot point of $0.62494 as sellers maintain control. The short-term trend remains bearish, with the pair struggling to regain traction above key technical levels.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62496 is acting as immediate resistance, reinforcing the near-term downside risk. A failure to reclaim this level could extend losses toward the first support at $0.61885, with additional downside potential toward $0.61407 and $0.60880 if bearish momentum intensifies.
On the upside, a breakout above $0.62494 could trigger a move toward the first resistance at $0.63034, with further bullish targets at $0.63546 and $0.64064. However, sustained buying pressure is required to confirm a shift in momentum.
Given the recent weakness, traders may consider buying above $0.61885, targeting a move toward $0.62499, with a stop-loss set at $0.61529 to manage downside risk.
Market participants should monitor broader macroeconomic factors, including U.S. dollar strength and risk sentiment, which continue to influence AUD/USD.
Rising U.S. bond yields and Federal Reserve rate expectations may keep pressure on the pair, while any improvement in global risk appetite could provide support for the Australian dollar.
Technical traders should watch for increased volume near key support levels, as a bounce from $0.61885 could indicate renewed buying interest. However, a break below this level would expose AUD/USD to further downside, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.61885
Take Profit – 0.62499
Stop Loss – 0.61529
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$614/ -$356
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$61/ -$35
AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the weaker US dollar, the AUD/USD currency pair continues its mild bearish trend, staying under pressure around the 0.6210 level. The downward movement can be attributed to the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes and retail sales data.
However, the RBA's February minutes highlighted economic risks, strong job growth, and persistent inflation, which raised expectations for potential rate cuts.
This sentiment weighed on the AUD/USD pair. Apart from this, a risk-off market sentiment, fueled by escalating trade tensions, further contributed to the pressure on the pair.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid RBA Rate Cut Concerns and Mixed Economic Data
On the AUD front, the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes and Retail Sales data kept the AUD/USD pair under pressure. However, the RBA’s February minutes highlighted economic risks and concerns about inflation, despite a strong job market.
The central bank noted that current labor market conditions did not align with its 2.5% inflation target, increasing the likelihood of future rate cuts. Meanwhile, the weaker consumer confidence and ongoing economic uncertainty continued to weigh on the Australian dollar.
On the data front, Australia’s retail sales rose by 0.3% in January after a 0.1% decline in December, but consumer confidence dropped to 87.7 from 89.8.
The manufacturing sector showed some resilience, with the PMI revised slightly down to 50.4 in February but still higher than January’s 50.2, marking its strongest growth since early 2023.
Meanwhile, Australia’s TD-MI Inflation Gauge fell by 0.2% in February, reversing a previous 0.1% rise, indicating slowing inflation after the RBA’s recent rate cut. These figures reinforced expectations that further rate cuts could be on the horizon, keeping the Aussie dollar under pressure.
On the global side, China’s economic data showed signs of recovery, which could impact the AUD/USD pair. The Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.8 in February from 50.1, exceeding market expectations. Similarly, the official NBS Manufacturing PMI climbed to 50.2 from 49.1, suggesting stronger industrial activity. The Non-Manufacturing PMI also improved, reaching 50.4.
Therefore, the AUD/USD pair remains under pressure as expectations of RBA rate cuts weaken the Aussie dollar, while improved Chinese data offers limited support, failing to offset broader economic concerns and weaker sentiment.
US Tariffs Spark Trade War Fears, Weighing on AUD/USD
On the geopolitical front, the tensions rose after US President Donald Trump confirmed new tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. Markets were unsure if Trump would extend the deadline before Monday, as these countries had been making efforts to meet US demands.
However, he moved forward with the tariffs starting Tuesday, fueling uncertainty in global trade. This decision added pressure on market sentiment, affecting risk-sensitive assets like the Australian dollar (AUD).
In response, Canada and China announced retaliatory tariffs against US imports. Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau stated that Canada would impose 25% tariffs on US goods worth C$30 billion from Tuesday, with additional tariffs on C$125 billion of products coming in 21 days.
Similarly, China’s Commerce Ministry declared new tariffs of up to 15% on key US agricultural products, including chicken, pork, soy, and beef, effective from March 10. These countermeasures heightened trade war concerns, weighing on market confidence.
For the AUD/USD pair, this trade dispute adds bearish pressure. The Australian dollar is highly sensitive to global trade conditions, particularly due to its strong economic ties with China.
Increased tariffs between the US and China could hurt demand for Australian exports, weakening the AUD against the USD. Traders will closely watch further developments, as any signs of easing tensions could help the Aussie dollar recover.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is trading at $0.62062, slipping below its pivot point of $0.62494 as sellers maintain control. The short-term trend remains bearish, with the pair struggling to regain traction above key technical levels.
The 50-day EMA at $0.62496 is acting as immediate resistance, reinforcing the near-term downside risk. A failure to reclaim this level could extend losses toward the first support at $0.61885, with additional downside potential toward $0.61407 and $0.60880 if bearish momentum intensifies.
On the upside, a breakout above $0.62494 could trigger a move toward the first resistance at $0.63034, with further bullish targets at $0.63546 and $0.64064. However, sustained buying pressure is required to confirm a shift in momentum.
Given the recent weakness, traders may consider buying above $0.61885, targeting a move toward $0.62499, with a stop-loss set at $0.61529 to manage downside risk.
Market participants should monitor broader macroeconomic factors, including U.S. dollar strength and risk sentiment, which continue to influence AUD/USD.
Rising U.S. bond yields and Federal Reserve rate expectations may keep pressure on the pair, while any improvement in global risk appetite could provide support for the Australian dollar.
Technical traders should watch for increased volume near key support levels, as a bounce from $0.61885 could indicate renewed buying interest. However, a break below this level would expose AUD/USD to further downside, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 27, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its bearish trend and remained under pressure around the 0.6285 level.
However, the declines were weighed down by disappointing economic data and a stronger US Dollar (USD). This marks the fifth consecutive day of losses for the Australian currency, following a series of disappointing economic data releases from Australia.
Weaker Australian Economic Data and Inflation Figures Weigh on AUD
On the data front, the Australian Private Capital Expenditure (CapEx) data for Q4 2024 revealed a contraction of 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, significantly below market expectations of a 0.8% increase. This unexpected decline follows a revised 1.6% growth in the previous quarter.
However, the weaker-than-anticipated business investment figures have raised concerns about the strength of the Australian economy, contributing to the bearish sentiment surrounding the AUD.
The decline in CapEx has added to worries about future economic growth, weighing on investor confidence and further pressuring the Australian dollar.
Moreover, Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a 2.5% year-over-year increase, falling short of market expectations of a 2.6% rise, signaling weaker inflation momentum.
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser also expressed cautious optimism, stating that inflation may improve but emphasizing the need for concrete results, especially given the tightness in the Australian labor market, which continues to pose challenges to controlling inflation.
Therefore, the weaker-than-expected economic data and inflation figures have increased bearish sentiment around the AUD, contributing to downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair, potentially leading to further declines.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Strong Economic Data and Geopolitical Risks
On the other side, the US Dollar remained bullish, buoyed by stronger-than-expected US economic data and geopolitical factors.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) strengthened, reaching near 106.50, as traders assessed the strength of the US economy and the prospects of continued Federal Reserve policy tightening.
Federal Reserve officials, including Raphael Bostic, have reiterated that interest rates should remain at current levels to continue exerting downward pressure on inflation.
Furthermore, US President Donald Trump’s statements regarding tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, coupled with tightening controls on chip exports to China, added fuel to concerns over a potential trade war.
These geopolitical risks boosted the demand for the US Dollar as a safe haven, further weighing on the AUD/USD currency pair.
PBOC Actions and US-China Trade Tensions Add to Pressure
Apart from this, the Australian Dollar also faced pressure from developments in China, Australia’s largest trading partner. The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) took steps to support its banking sector by issuing special treasury bonds to strengthen the capital of state-owned banks.
Despite this action help stabilize China’s economy and potentially boost demand for Australian exports, the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China continue to heighten market uncertainty, which could still weigh on the AUD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading at $0.62940, down 0.01%, showing some hesitation below the Pivot Point at $0.62854. The pair is struggling to gain momentum as it remains under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63443, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63271, with stronger hurdles at $0.63560 and $0.63921. A break above $0.62854 could trigger buying interest, pushing the pair towards these resistance levels.
On the downside, support is located at $0.62544, followed by more substantial floors at $0.62163 and $0.61848. A break below $0.62544 would reinforce the bearish outlook, likely leading to a test of the next support at $0.62163.
Should prices continue to fall, the key support at $0.61848 could act as a crucial area for potential buyers to step in.
The technical setup favors a bearish trend as long as AUD/USD trades below the 50 EMA at $0.63443. The 4-hour chart shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, highlighting the downward momentum.
The Pivot Point at $0.62854 is a critical level to watch; a break above this could invalidate the bearish bias, leading to a potential recovery towards $0.63271. Conversely, a drop below $0.62544 would confirm the bearish trend, targeting $0.62163.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Bias: AUD/USD remains bearish below the Pivot Point at $0.62854 and the 50 EMA at $0.63443.
- Support Levels: Immediate support at $0.62544, with significant floors at $0.62163 and $0.61848.
- Resistance Levels: Upside resistance at $0.63271, $0.63560, and $0.63921.
AUD/USD is trading at $0.62940, down 0.01%, showing some hesitation below the Pivot Point at $0.62854. The pair is struggling to gain momentum as it remains under the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $0.63443, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term.
Immediate resistance is seen at $0.63271, with stronger hurdles at $0.63560 and $0.63921. A break above $0.62854 could trigger buying interest, pushing the pair towards these resistance levels.
On the downside, support is located at $0.62544, followed by more substantial floors at $0.62163 and $0.61848. A break below $0.62544 would reinforce the bearish outlook, likely leading to a test of the next support at $0.62163.
Should prices continue to fall, the key support at $0.61848 could act as a crucial area for potential buyers to step in.
The technical setup favors a bearish trend as long as AUD/USD trades below the 50 EMA at $0.63443. The 4-hour chart shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, highlighting the downward momentum.
The Pivot Point at $0.62854 is a critical level to watch; a break above this could invalidate the bearish bias, leading to a potential recovery towards $0.63271. Conversely, a drop below $0.62544 would confirm the bearish trend, targeting $0.62163.
For traders, the strategy remains to Buy Above $0.62851 with a Take Profit at $0.63277 and a Stop Loss at $0.62540.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62851
Take Profit – 0.63277
Stop Loss – 0.62540
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$426/ -$311
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$42/ -$31