AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its downward slide, holding steady around the 0.6360 level. This decline followed disappointing Australian employment data. The unemployment rate for March rose to 4.1%, slightly better than the expected 4.2%.
However, the Employment Change came in at 32.2K, falling short of the forecasted 40K. This weaker employment data added pressure on the Australian Dollar, resulting in negative market sentiment.
AUD Struggles Amid Weak Labor Market and Global Uncertainty
Despite the poor labor market data, the Australian Dollar found some support from improved global risk sentiment. The AUD gained a boost after US President Donald Trump announced exemptions for key tech products, such as smartphones, semiconductors, and solar cells, from proposed tariffs.
Since China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, would benefit from these exemptions, there was some optimism for Australian exports. However, uncertainty around US trade policy still lingers, as the Trump administration is considering new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, keeping traders on edge.
Back in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shown uncertainty about when the next interest rate change might occur. In their latest policy meeting minutes, they mentioned that May could be a good time to review monetary policy, though the market is expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Some even predict there could be more cuts later in the year. Traders are now awaiting the upcoming employment report, which could provide crucial insights into the job market and influence the RBA's next move.
US Dollar Rebounds, Pressures AUD/USD
On the other side, the US Dollar has been on a strong rebound, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbing to 99.60. This rise in the greenback is supported by solid US retail sales, which increased by 1.4% in March, beating both the previous month’s growth and market expectations.
Moreover, comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggest that the Federal Reserve still has a long road ahead to hit its 2% inflation target, reducing expectations for imminent rate cuts. As the US economy shows resilience, the stronger US Dollar continues to weigh on the AUD/USD pair.
Looking ahead, the market is also eyeing key US economic data later this week, including Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Initial Jobless Claims, which could provide further direction for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed a dip in inflation to 2.4% year-over-year in March, below market expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on future rate cuts.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is slipping lower after another rejection from the $0.6391 resistance zone, which has repeatedly capped price action over recent weeks.
This area is forming a well-defined supply zone, with multiple failed breakout attempts reinforcing its technical relevance. The recent rejection aligns with the broader structure of a potential lower high, suggesting downside risk is building.
The pair is currently trading back below the highlighted resistance band, with the bearish move gaining traction. Immediate support is now seen at $0.6276 — a level that coincides with prior swing lows and the lower bound of the current consolidation. A breakdown below this point could expose $0.6193 as the next target.
The 50-period SMA, now at $0.6199, remains upward sloping but is yet to catch up with the latest price action, indicating a potential gap between short-term trend and momentum.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rolled over from a peak near 70 and is now sitting at 56, reflecting weakening bullish pressure without being oversold — a setup that often precedes deeper retracements.
As long as price remains below $0.6391, the short-term outlook favors a move lower. A clear break below $0.6300 would confirm bearish continuation and validate the $0.6276 target.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 17, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Rejection at Resistance: Price stalls at $0.6391 with signs of a triple top formation.
- Momentum Caution: RSI hovers near 65, suggesting reduced upside potential.
- Downside Targets: $0.6277 and $0.6218 emerge as key support levels if price breaks lower.
AUD/USD is encountering firm resistance near the $0.6391 level, where a potential triple top formation is taking shape. This technical pattern, which indicates repeated failure to move higher, suggests that bullish momentum may be weakening.
Price action has tested this area multiple times over the past few weeks, and the most recent approach was met with renewed selling interest.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is trending higher and currently sits around $0.6218, showing that the short-term structure has improved since the early April low.
However, with the pair approaching a historically strong resistance area, traders may start considering pullback scenarios — particularly if price slips below the $0.6391 neckline of the pattern.
Momentum indicators are signaling caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.8, just below overbought levels. A decline below the 60 zone could confirm bearish divergence and further support the case for a short-term reversal.
A break below the $0.6391 threshold would shift the focus to $0.6277 as the next target, with potential to extend toward $0.6218 — close to the SMA and previous support.
Unless AUD/USD manages a clean breakout above $0.6444 — invalidating the triple top — the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside in the near term.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 0.63912
Take Profit – 0.62768
Stop Loss – 0.64440
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1144/ -$528
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$114/ -$52
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its bullish trend and remained well-bid around the 0.6361 level, hitting an intra-day high of 0.6378. This continued strength was driven by a mix of factors, including positive global trade sentiment and a weakening US Dollar. The boost came after US President Donald Trump exempted certain technology products from new tariffs, which lifted global risk sentiment and supported the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD Boosted by Positive Trade Developments and China’s Economic Growth
Moreover, President Trump’s decision to exempt key technology products like smartphones, computers, semiconductors, and solar panels from tariffs sent a positive signal to global markets.
These products, mainly produced in China, are important for Australia’s trade, as China is its largest trading partner and a major buyer of its commodities.
This development supported the AUD, as markets saw it as a step toward easing trade tensions between the US and China, which is seen as positive for global trade stability.
In addition to this, China’s strong trade performance, with exports rising 13.5% year-over-year in March, boosted optimism.
Despite global uncertainties, China’s trade surplus exceeded expectations, improving the global growth outlook and further supporting the AUD.
US Dollar Weakness Amid Economic Concerns and Stagflation Risks
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar faced downward pressure, especially after the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached its lowest level since 2022. The DXY hovered around 99.90 as investors reacted to growing signs of stagflation risks in the US economy.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments added to concerns about the Fed’s ability to achieve its 2% inflation target, dampening market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts. This uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy further weakened the USD.
In addition, US economic data presented a mixed picture. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight easing in inflation, while jobless claims ticked up to 223,000.
On the other hand, the University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 50.8, signaling deteriorating consumer confidence, which further added to the negative sentiment surrounding the USD.
Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cautious Outlook and Market Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a cautious approach on future rate decisions, as shown in the minutes from its March 31–April 1 meeting.
The RBA highlighted global uncertainties, including trade tensions, and noted both risks to Australia’s economy and inflation. Although the RBA kept interest rates unchanged in April, markets are now expecting a 25-basis point rate cut in May, with further cuts likely later in the year.
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to about 4.33%, indicating lower inflation expectations. The RBA’s cautious tone, along with easing core inflation, fueled speculation that the central bank might adopt a more supportive policy in the near future.
Despite the RBA's cautious stance, the AUD has been rising. This could be due to positive global trade sentiment, particularly the easing of US-China tensions, and strong Chinese trade data, which boost Australia's trade prospects and support the AUD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is encountering firm resistance near the $0.6391 level, where a potential triple top formation is taking shape. This technical pattern, which indicates repeated failure to move higher, suggests that bullish momentum may be weakening.
Price action has tested this area multiple times over the past few weeks, and the most recent approach was met with renewed selling interest.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is trending higher and currently sits around $0.6218, showing that the short-term structure has improved since the early April low.
However, with the pair approaching a historically strong resistance area, traders may start considering pullback scenarios — particularly if price slips below the $0.6391 neckline of the pattern.
Momentum indicators are signaling caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.8, just below overbought levels. A decline below the 60 zone could confirm bearish divergence and further support the case for a short-term reversal.
A break below the $0.6391 threshold would shift the focus to $0.6277 as the next target, with potential to extend toward $0.6218 — close to the SMA and previous support.
Unless AUD/USD manages a clean breakout above $0.6444 — invalidating the triple top — the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside in the near term.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Aussie rebounds above 0.6159 with bullish momentum.
- Resistance at 0.6213 may stall price near-term.
- RSI suggests temporary overextension before trend confirmation.
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6184 after a strong recovery from last week's low of 0.5930. The pair has climbed back above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6159 and is now testing resistance near 0.6213.
A clean break above this level could accelerate gains toward 0.6237, aligning with the descending trendline from the recent high of 0.6388.
However, momentum appears stretched. The RSI stands at 67, just shy of overbought territory, hinting at possible consolidation.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6160, followed by 0.6107 and the 50-period moving average at 0.6046. Until bulls confirm a close above 0.6213, upside moves may be limited.
AUD/USD has reclaimed key levels, but a decisive close above 0.6213 is needed to fuel further gains. Watch for RSI cooling or trendline breakout.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.61603
Take Profit – 0.62374
Stop Loss – 0.61071
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$771/ -$532
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$77/ -$53
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair rose to around the 0.6187 level on Thursday, following positive news about renewed trade talks between Australia and the European Union (EU).
The EU announced plans to revisit the stalled negotiations, with EU Trade Commissioner Maros Sefcovic proposing a new timeline to restart discussions with Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell.
Although the previous round of talks collapsed two years ago due to disagreements over agricultural access, these new developments have raised hopes for a resolution, boosting sentiment towards the Australian Dollar.
Weak Australian Data and RBA Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on AUD
Despite the positive news from the EU, the Australian Dollar faces pressure from weak domestic economic data. Consumer confidence took a hit, with the Westpac Consumer Confidence Index falling by 6% in April after a 4% rise in March.
Business sentiment also weakened, as the NAB Business Confidence Index dropped to -3 in March, marking its lowest point since November.
This disappointing economic data has bolstered expectations for more dovish monetary policy from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
Markets are now pricing in up to 100 basis points in rate cuts this year, with the first likely to come in May, followed by further reductions in July and August. This dovish outlook is keeping the Australian Dollar under pressure.
Global Trade Tensions Limit AUD Upside Despite EU Progress
On the global front, the escalating trade tensions continue to limit the AUD's upside potential. US President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese imports to 125% has further intensified the ongoing trade war between the US and China.
In retaliation, China increased tariffs on all US imports to 84% and blacklisted six major US companies. Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding global trade, particularly between two of Australia’s largest trade partners, is weighing on investor sentiment.
China's latest economic data has also raised concerns about a slowdown. The country’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.1% year-over-year in March, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) dropped 2.5%.
These signs of weakening demand in China, Australia's largest trading partner, are contributing to the bearish outlook for the AUD.
US Dollar Weakness and Fed Policy Outlook in Focus
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar edged lower, hovering around 102.60, as traders await the upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes revealed concerns about the dual risks of rising inflation and an economic slowdown.
Despite these concerns, policymakers emphasized that future decisions would be based on data. Currently, the market is pricing in only a 40% chance of a rate cut at the next Federal Reserve meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In a positive move for global markets, President Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs for most US trade partners, easing fears of further trade tensions. This step is seen as helping stabilize the market amid ongoing uncertainties.
Therefore, the US dollar's weakness and President Trump's tariff pause could boost risk sentiment, likely supporting the AUD/USD pair as investors seek higher-yielding assets, driving demand for the Australian dollar.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6184 after a strong recovery from last week's low of 0.5930. The pair has climbed back above the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.6159 and is now testing resistance near 0.6213.
A clean break above this level could accelerate gains toward 0.6237, aligning with the descending trendline from the recent high of 0.6388.
However, momentum appears stretched. The RSI stands at 67, just shy of overbought territory, hinting at possible consolidation.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 0.6160, followed by 0.6107 and the 50-period moving average at 0.6046. Until bulls confirm a close above 0.6213, upside moves may be limited.
AUD/USD has reclaimed key levels, but a decisive close above 0.6213 is needed to fuel further gains. Watch for RSI cooling or trendline breakout.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 10, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Recovery hinges on holding $0.60376 and clearing $0.61068.
- RSI hints at early bullish divergence, but no breakout yet.
- EMA structure still favors sellers; caution on upside.
AUD/USD is currently trading at $0.60591, showing early signs of recovery after last week’s steep drop. The pair briefly tested support around $0.59300 before bouncing back above the $0.60376 level, which now serves as a critical short-term pivot.
The bounce coincides with mild bullish divergence on the RSI (currently at 42.27), suggesting a tentative return in buyer interest. However, the broader structure remains fragile. The 50 EMA at $0.62230 continues to slope downward, capping any strong bullish momentum.
From a Fibonacci perspective, the pair is struggling near the 23.6% retracement at $0.60388. A break above $0.61068—the 38.2% retracement—would bolster bullish sentiment and expose higher resistance at $0.61598 and $0.62138.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $0.59821, followed by $0.59307. A breach below those levels could send AUD/USD to test deeper lows near $0.58792.
Traders will want to see a sustained move above $0.61068 to confirm follow-through buying. Until then, any upside moves should be viewed cautiously and within the context of a broader bearish trend.
The RSI still hovers below the midline, while the EMA structure favors bears, leaving the recovery in question unless momentum improves decisively above $0.61385.
The risk-reward favors short-term longs above $0.60376, but upside targets should remain conservative unless we see a daily close above $0.61598.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.60376
Take Profit – 0.61385
Stop Loss – 0.59821
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1009/ -$555
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$100/ -$55
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, remaining bullish around 0.6047 after briefly recovering to 0.6128 during the early Asian session on Tuesday. However, the US dollar continues to strengthen against the Australian Dollar (AUD), driven by increasing concerns about a potential recession in the United States.
These worries are amplified by US President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which are adding to market uncertainty and weighing on investor sentiment.
Impact of US-China Trade War on Australia's Economy and the Australian Dollar
However, the ongoing US-China trade war is having a significant impact on market sentiment. Last Friday, China announced a large 34% counter-tariff on US goods, which will take effect this Thursday, as a response to President Trump’s tariffs.
This rise in trade tensions between the two biggest economies in the world is expected to harm global trade, with Australia being particularly affected since China is its largest trading partner.
As China reacts to the situation, there are growing concerns that Australia’s economy will suffer the most from these trade disputes, leading to further pressure on the value of the Australian Dollar.
US Federal Reserve's Monetary Policy and Its Impact on the US Dollar and AUD
On the other hand, speculation surrounding the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy has added to the uncertainty. Following the mounting trade tensions, traders are increasingly betting that the Fed will implement aggressive interest rate cuts to counteract the economic repercussions.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a nearly 65% chance of a rate cut in May, with futures pointing to a total of 100 basis points worth of rate reductions by December.
This expectation of looser US monetary policy could undermine the value of the US Dollar to some extent, but the broader risk-off sentiment due to trade uncertainties may prevent the AUD from gaining any strong traction.
Reserve Bank of Australia's Easing Policy and Its Impact on the Australian Dollar
On the Australian front, the outlook is similarly clouded. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to follow suit with the global trend of interest rate cuts. The RBA is set to meet in May, and analysts expect a 25 basis points rate cut, with the possibility of a larger 50 basis points reduction.
This growing speculation surrounding the RBA’s easing policy is contributing to the weakening of the AUD against the USD.
The Aussie Dollar remains vulnerable as markets anticipate further rate cuts from the central bank to bolster the struggling Australian economy, which could further widen the interest rate differential between Australia and the US.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is currently trading at $0.60591, showing early signs of recovery after last week’s steep drop. The pair briefly tested support around $0.59300 before bouncing back above the $0.60376 level, which now serves as a critical short-term pivot.
The bounce coincides with mild bullish divergence on the RSI (currently at 42.27), suggesting a tentative return in buyer interest. However, the broader structure remains fragile. The 50 EMA at $0.62230 continues to slope downward, capping any strong bullish momentum.
From a Fibonacci perspective, the pair is struggling near the 23.6% retracement at $0.60388. A break above $0.61068—the 38.2% retracement—would bolster bullish sentiment and expose higher resistance at $0.61598 and $0.62138.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $0.59821, followed by $0.59307. A breach below those levels could send AUD/USD to test deeper lows near $0.58792.
Traders will want to see a sustained move above $0.61068 to confirm follow-through buying. Until then, any upside moves should be viewed cautiously and within the context of a broader bearish trend.
The RSI still hovers below the midline, while the EMA structure favors bears, leaving the recovery in question unless momentum improves decisively above $0.61385.
The risk-reward favors short-term longs above $0.60376, but upside targets should remain conservative unless we see a daily close above $0.61598.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- AUD/USD trades within a tightening triangle pattern
- $0.62650 serves as key technical pivot and entry level
- Break above $0.63130 could trigger broader upside momentum
The Australian dollar is trading near $0.6299, showing signs of bullish momentum after rebounding from the $0.62650 support zone.
This level, which aligns with the ascending trendline and previous demand area, has proven to be a key pivot in recent sessions.
The 50-period SMA at $0.62868 is now being tested as near-term support after a strong upward move that briefly reached resistance at $0.63130.
Price action remains compressed within a broader symmetrical triangle pattern, with lower highs forming against a gradually rising support base.
A break above $0.63130 would signal renewed bullish control, potentially targeting the next resistance levels at $0.63406 and $0.63634.
On the downside, a sustained move below $0.62650 would expose deeper supports at $0.62333 and $0.62255. If breached, this could trigger a broader breakdown toward the base of the pattern near $0.61973.
The RSI at 55.39 shows mild bullish momentum, holding above its moving average. However, traders should watch for a confirmed close above $0.63130 before anticipating any significant upside extension.
Entry above $0.62650 remains valid while price holds trendline support. Targets lie near $0.63130 with a protective stop at $0.62333.
AUD/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 0.62650
Take Profit – 0.63130
Stop Loss – 0.62333
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$480/ -$317
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$48/ -$31
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair is seeing a strong rise, moving towards a two-week high of 0.6365. The Australian Dollar (AUD) is strengthening as the US Dollar (USD) experiences a significant sell-off.
This decline in the dollar is driven by growing concerns among traders that the newly introduced tariffs by President Donald Trump could push the US economy into a recession in the near term.
US Dollar Faces Intense Sell-Off
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has experienced a sharp decline, with the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, dropping more than 2% to near 102.00.
This marks the largest one-day correction in years, highlighting significant weakness in the USD. However, the key factor behind this sell-off is President Trump's announcement of new tariffs on imported goods to the US, set to take effect on April 5.
On Wednesday, President Trump introduced a reciprocal tariff plan, imposing a 10% baseline levy on all imports, with additional tariffs ranging from 10% to 49% depending on the country.
Market participants are worried that these broad tariffs could drive inflation and negatively impact US economic growth, potentially leading to stagflation.
Hence, this scenario would make it more challenging for the Federal Reserve to manage the economy and could slow down future recovery.
Impact on Australia and China
Therefore, the impact of these tariffs extends beyond US borders, particularly affecting Australia. With the US imposing a 34% increase in tariffs on Chinese products, in addition to a 20% levy already imposed on Chinese goods, Australia’s economy could face further pressures.
This is due to Australia's significant trade relationship with China, with China being one of its largest trading partners. However, the concerns over China’s economic outlook are growing, weighing on the Australian Dollar (AUD).
China has already urged the US to reconsider its tariff strategy, warning that countermeasures may be implemented to safeguard its economic interests. This ongoing trade tension between the US and China adds to the uncertainties, especially for countries like Australia that depend heavily on exports to China.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is trading near $0.6299, showing signs of bullish momentum after rebounding from the $0.62650 support zone.
This level, which aligns with the ascending trendline and previous demand area, has proven to be a key pivot in recent sessions.
The 50-period SMA at $0.62868 is now being tested as near-term support after a strong upward move that briefly reached resistance at $0.63130.
Price action remains compressed within a broader symmetrical triangle pattern, with lower highs forming against a gradually rising support base.
A break above $0.63130 would signal renewed bullish control, potentially targeting the next resistance levels at $0.63406 and $0.63634.
On the downside, a sustained move below $0.62650 would expose deeper supports at $0.62333 and $0.62255. If breached, this could trigger a broader breakdown toward the base of the pattern near $0.61973.
The RSI at 55.39 shows mild bullish momentum, holding above its moving average. However, traders should watch for a confirmed close above $0.63130 before anticipating any significant upside extension.
Entry above $0.62650 remains valid while price holds trendline support. Targets lie near $0.63130 with a protective stop at $0.62333.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 03, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The Australian Dollar (AUD) edged higher on Tuesday after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held the Official Cash Rate at 4.10% during its April policy meeting—an outcome widely expected by markets.
In the post-meeting statement, the RBA struck a cautious tone, emphasizing ongoing concerns about the persistence of inflation and heightened geopolitical tensions.
The central bank acknowledged that recent U.S. tariff rhetoric is weighing on global business confidence and contributing to an increasingly uncertain trade environment.
Governor Michele Bullock reinforced the board’s cautious stance, noting that policymakers are not yet prepared to discuss rate cuts. “We have to be careful not to get ahead of ourselves on policy,” she said, confirming that no firm decisions were made regarding a May move. The RBA’s wait-and-see approach comes as inflation data remains sticky, and global risk sentiment stays fragile.
China Data and U.S. Tariff Uncertainty Shape Sentiment
While the RBA decision offered short-term support for the Aussie, global trade risks continue to act as a limiting factor.
Market participants remain wary ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement on Wednesday, which he confirmed would apply to all countries—not just key trading partners.
Such policies could dampen risk sentiment and, by extension, weigh on the AUD, given its sensitivity to global trade flows.
On a more supportive note, economic data from China—Australia’s largest trading partner—surprised to the upside.
China’s Caixin Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in March, while the NBS Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMIs also posted solid gains, offering signs of stabilization in China’s economic activity.
This data provided a modest tailwind for the Aussie, signaling potential demand strength in regional trade.
Mixed Domestic Data Keeps RBA Cautious
Domestically, February retail sales rose 0.2% month-over-month, falling short of market expectations for a 0.3% gain and down from January’s 0.3% increase.
While not alarming, the miss underscores tepid consumer momentum, which could keep the RBA on the sidelines in the near term.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI data later today for further direction in AUD/USD.
Until then, the Aussie remains supported near term, but upside potential could remain capped by global uncertainty.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian Dollar remains under sustained selling pressure, with AUD/USD extending its downside drift below the 50-period simple moving average and clinging to the lower bounds of a descending trend channel.
After failing to sustain gains above the $0.6290 region, price broke below the key $0.6289 SMA and is now positioned precariously near short-term support at $0.6250. The inability to retake the upper trendline or the moving average reflects persistent bearish sentiment.
The recent rejection from the $0.6330 resistance—coupled with the channel breakdown—points to an increasing probability of continuation toward the next key horizontal support at $0.6217.
Momentum indicators reinforce the bearish outlook: the RSI is hovering at 41.30, below the midline and signaling weak upside momentum, while the price remains capped under a firm downtrend line that has held since March 19.
A confirmed breach below $0.6250 could accelerate losses toward the $0.6218 and $0.6188 support levels. Meanwhile, resistance continues to stack at $0.6291 and $0.6330, with any rebounds likely to be short-lived unless the pair closes decisively above the falling trendline and 50-SMA.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025