EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and climbed to around 1.0912. The Euro (EUR) is gaining strength against the US Dollar (USD) despite ongoing trade tensions between the United States and the European Union.
Investors are closely watching key economic data releases, including Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) for February and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March, which could further influence the pair’s movement.
EUR/USD Rises Despite Trade Tensions and Recession Concerns
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a 200% tariff on European wine, cognac, and other alcohol in response to the EU’s planned tariffs on American whiskey and other goods starting in April.
The EU’s move came after Trump imposed a 25% duty on steel and aluminum imports. Despite these trade tensions, the Euro (EUR) is holding strong, and EUR/USD continues to rise as investors focus on upcoming economic data.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that higher US tariffs could push Germany, Europe’s largest economy, into another recession.
He said on Thursday that if the tariffs go into effect, Germany might face a recession this year. Despite these concerns, the Euro (EUR) remains resilient, and EUR/USD continues to rise as investors focus on upcoming economic data.
Fed Rate Cut Speculations Cap Dollar Gains
On the other hand, the downside for EUR/USD is limited due to growing concerns about the US economy. Analysts at Barclays have updated their Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut forecast, now expecting two cuts in June and September instead of just one.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 75% chance of a rate cut by June, signaling market confidence in upcoming easing, which supports the Euro's strength and keeps EUR/USD rising.
Hence, the weaker US economic data has also contributed to speculation that the Fed may move to lower interest rates sooner rather than later. A slowdown in economic growth would put further pressure on the Greenback, potentially limiting further losses in the EUR/USD pair.
Moving forward, investors will closely monitor developments in the US-EU trade dispute, as any further escalation could intensify selling pressure on the Euro.
Moreover, upcoming economic data from both regions, including inflation reports and consumer sentiment figures, will play a crucial role in determining EUR/USD’s next move.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08339, down 0.03%, as the pair continues to face pressure amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. The euro remains on a downward trajectory, struggling to break past the pivot level at $1.08740.
A failure to reclaim this level suggests that sellers remain in control, with immediate resistance seen at $1.09314, followed by $1.09856 and $1.10365.
On the downside, the $1.08094 support level is a key area to watch. A sustained break below this threshold could accelerate losses toward $1.07650 and $1.07213, reinforcing a broader bearish trend.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08735 is acting as dynamic resistance, further limiting upside potential. A failure to close above this moving average could keep bearish sentiment intact.
For now, a break below $1.08094 could confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside likely.
Conversely, a close above $1.08740 would signal potential stabilization, opening the door for a recovery toward $1.09314.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) remains in sideways consolidation after hitting a fresh all-time high of around $3,001 on Friday.
Despite some pullback, the precious metal remains on track for strong weekly gains as investors assess the impact of escalating US trade policies and increasing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts.
The ongoing uncertainty supports gold's status as a safe-haven asset, keeping its bullish outlook intact.
US Trade Tensions and Fed Rate Cut Bets Support Gold
On the geopolitical front, the escalating tariff war initiated by Trump continues to fuel market uncertainty, increasing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
The latest move includes a proposed 200% duty on European wine and cognac imports unless the European Union removes surcharges on US whiskey.
This follows the recent 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, raising fears of further escalation. These aggressive trade policies have heightened recession concerns, leading investors to increase their bets on Fed rate cuts.
Market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to implement three 25 basis point rate cuts in June, July, and October to mitigate a potential economic downturn.
This outlook has been reinforced by softer US inflation data, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 2.8% YoY in February, down from 3% previously.
Gold's Gains Capped by US Dollar Recovery Despite Bullish Factors
Despite strong support from trade tensions and Fed rate cut expectations, gold’s gains remain limited by a recovering US Dollar.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its rebound for the third straight day, recovering from its lowest level since mid-October.
However, the recent stability in global equity markets, spurred by positive US-Canada trade negotiations and reduced fears of a US government shutdown, has also tempered gold's bullish momentum. Although, the overall market sentiment still favors gold’s upside potential.
Market participants now turn their attention to the upcoming Michigan US Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations Index for further direction.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's two-day monetary policy meeting next week will be crucial in shaping the near-term outlook for gold.
Hence, the dovish signals from the Fed could further support gold’s bullish trend, while stronger-than-expected economic data could weigh on prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,985.31, slipping 0.01% as it hovers below the key pivot level of $2,993.84. The metal remains in a tight range as traders weigh Federal Reserve rate cut expectations against a strengthening U.S. dollar.
Gold’s inability to sustain momentum above $2,993 highlights investor caution, with resistance levels at $3,005.25 and $3,015.30 posing near-term hurdles.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $2,979.51, with further selling pressure potentially driving gold toward $2,963.65 and $2,956.39.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,928.44 continues to provide dynamic support, reinforcing the longer-term uptrend. However, failure to hold above this level could expose gold to further declines.
Despite short-term weakness, gold’s broader trend remains bullish, driven by growing expectations of Federal Reserve policy easing.
Softer U.S. inflation data has fueled speculation of three rate cuts in 2024, with traders eyeing the upcoming FOMC meeting for further guidance. A dovish stance from policymakers could propel gold beyond the $3,000 psychological mark.
For now, a daily close above $2,993.84 is required to confirm bullish momentum, while a break below $2,979.51 may signal deeper consolidation.
Traders should watch for a decisive move in either direction to determine the next leg of gold’s price action.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The global market sentiment has been flashing red as witnessed by the continued decline in the S&P 500 (SPX), which hit an intra-day low of 5,504.
However, the ongoing concerns over US trade policies and the strengthening US dollar have put pressure on market sentiment.
Investors are worried that former President Donald Trump’s tough trade stance could shake up global markets, making businesses and traders uncertain about the future.
Moreover, expectations are rising that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might increase interest rates multiple times this year.
This has given the US dollar a boost, making it stronger, but at the same time, it has put more pressure on the stock market. As a result, investors are staying cautious, watching closely how these factors will impact the economy and their investments.
Stronger US Dollar Weighs on S&P 500 Amid Cooling Inflation
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining strong traction in the wake of stronger-than-expected jobless claims and softer Producer Price Index (PPI) data.
This combination of economic indicators has fueled optimism about the US economy, boosting demand for the greenback.
As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, has gained momentum.
At the time of writing, DXY is trading around 104.00 as investors shift their attention to the upcoming Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data.
Meanwhile, the previously released labor market data showed that Initial Jobless Claims came in at 220,000 for the week ending March 7, lower than the expected 225,000. Additionally, continuing claims dropped to 1.87 million, below the forecasted 1.90 million, indicating resilience in the US job market.
Whereas, inflationary pressures eased, with the US PPI rising 3.2% year-over-year in February, down from 3.7% in January and below the 3.3% forecast.
Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 3.4% annually, slowing from 3.8% in January. On a monthly basis, the headline PPI remained unchanged, while core PPI fell by 0.1%.
Therefore, the S&P 500 faced downward pressure as a stronger US dollar and resilient job data fueled concerns about prolonged higher interest rates, while easing inflation provided limited relief to equity markets.
Trade Policy Uncertainty and Geopolitical Risks Exacerbate Market Jitters
Apart from this, President Trump’s latest trade threats intensified fears of global economic instability. Trump recently announced a potential 200% tariff on all European wines and champagne via his social media account, raising concerns over heightened trade tensions.
This move has amplified fears of retaliatory measures from the European Union, potentially disrupting global trade flows and corporate earnings.
Meanwhile, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer confirmed his support for a GOP stopgap funding bill to keep the government open, but political uncertainty over fiscal policy continues to worry investors.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick emphasized the administration’s plan to balance the budget within three years under Trump.
While this shows a focus on fiscal discipline, investors fear that aggressive spending cuts could slow economic growth.
As a result, the S&P 500 remains under pressure, with markets reacting cautiously to ongoing political and economic uncertainties.
Looking ahead, investor focus remains on the upcoming Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index data, which could provide further insights into consumer confidence and spending trends.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 (SPX) is trading at 5521.53, holding steady after a strong run, but facing resistance as traders assess macroeconomic conditions.
The index remains above the pivot point at 5510.29, suggesting underlying strength, yet the momentum appears to be losing steam near key resistance at 5599.36. A breakout above this level could fuel further gains toward 5685.55 and 5780.12, reinforcing the longer-term uptrend.
However, downside risks persist, particularly if SPX fails to hold above 5510.29. Immediate support sits at 5406.38, and a break below this level could expose the index to a deeper pullback toward 5313.07 and 5200.68.
The 50-day EMA at 5764.78 remains a critical long-term marker, currently indicating a stretched market that may be due for consolidation or correction.
Investor sentiment remains cautious ahead of key economic events, including the upcoming Federal Reserve minutes and macroeconomic data releases.
Traders are closely monitoring inflation signals and the Fed’s policy stance, which could dictate near-term direction. A hawkish tone from the central bank may trigger profit-taking, while dovish comments could reignite bullish momentum.
For now, the index remains in a consolidation phase, with a decisive move above 5599.36 needed to confirm a continuation of the rally. Conversely, a break below 5406.38 may signal a shift in sentiment, prompting a correction.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – March 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair remained under pressure, falling to around 147.58 on Thursday. The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened against the US Dollar (USD) as concerns over trade tariffs and growing expectations of further interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) bolstered demand for the safe-haven currency.
Meanwhile, the USD remained weak amid rising speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates this year, adding further downside pressure on the pair.
USD/JPY Pressured by BoJ Rate Hike Expectations and Trade Concerns
The Japanese Yen found strong support as market participants anticipated that the BoJ would continue raising interest rates to curb inflation. With Japanese firms agreeing to wage hikes for the third consecutive year, consumer spending is expected to rise, further fueling inflation.
This scenario increases the likelihood of additional rate hikes by the BoJ, pushing the yield on Japan’s 10-year government bond near its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis. Additionally, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that long-term interest rates would be left to market forces, reinforcing expectations of higher yields.
On the trade front, US President Donald Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports heightened global trade tensions. His warning of reciprocal tariffs on other countries increased uncertainty, leading investors to seek refuge in the safe-haven Japanese Yen.
Market concerns over potential retaliatory measures from the European Union and Canada further weighed on sentiment, benefiting the JPY.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation
The US Dollar remained subdued near a multi-month low, struggling against the backdrop of growing expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Traders increased their bets on multiple rate cuts this year, especially after weaker-than-expected US inflation data. On the data front, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report showed that headline inflation slowed to 2.8% year-over-year in February from 3% in the previous month.
Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, also eased to 3.1% from 3.3%, missing market expectations of 3.2%.
This softer inflation data reinforced market speculation that the Fed may need to ease monetary policy to prevent an economic slowdown.
The outlook for lower interest rates reduced the USD’s appeal, contributing to the ongoing weakness of the USD/JPY pair. Investors now turn their focus to the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) data for further clues on the Fed’s policy direction.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is holding steady at 147.609, up slightly as the market weighs broader risk sentiment and central bank expectations.
The pair remains under pressure below its pivot point at 148.390, signaling a potential downside move if sellers gain control. The 50-day EMA at 147.667 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, keeping further upside limited for now.
If USD/JPY breaks below immediate support at 147.285, the next downside targets are 146.547 and 145.969, where buyers may attempt to regain control.
However, a move back above 148.390 could shift momentum in favor of the bulls, with resistance at 149.124 and 149.600 standing as key hurdles before the psychologically significant 150.167 level.
For now, USD/JPY remains bearish below 147.925, with traders targeting key support levels. A sustained move below 147.285 could accelerate losses, while a break above 148.390 would indicate a potential shift in sentiment toward further upside.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – March 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and extended its losses for the third consecutive session around $0.6285 on Thursday.
However, the pair found some support as the US Dollar (USD) remained under pressure due to uncertainty surrounding US tariffs and growing concerns over a potential recession.
Despite this, the Australian Dollar (AUD) struggled to gain traction following a sharp drop in Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations and rising global trade tensions, which weighed on market sentiment.
AUD/USD Pressured by Trade Disputes and Weak Inflation Expectations
The Australian Dollar came under fresh selling pressure after US President Donald Trump confirmed that Australia would not be exempt from the 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel. This decision heightened trade concerns and weighed on market sentiment.
At the same time, Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations dropped sharply to 3.6% in March from 4.6% in February, the lowest level since April 2024. This unexpected decline raised concerns about inflation in Australia, making it harder for the AUD to recover.
Adding to the pressure, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed that Australia would not respond with its own tariffs against the US.He explained that retaliatory measures would only raise costs for Australian consumers and push inflation even higher.
This decision left the Australian Dollar more exposed to trade uncertainties, adding to its weakness in the market.
US Dollar Remains Subdued Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar struggled as the US Dollar Index (DXY) hovered around 103.50. Traders analyzed the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which showed that inflation slowed in February.
The report increased expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could cut interest rates sooner than expected. Monthly headline inflation dropped to 0.2% in February from 0.5% in January, while core inflation also eased to 0.2%, missing the expected 0.3%. The weaker inflation numbers reduced demand for the US Dollar, providing some support to the AUD/USD pair.
However, market sentiment turned negative after the European Union (EU) responded to US tariffs with its own measures. The US had imposed a 25% levy on European steel and aluminum, and in retaliation, the EU announced tariffs on $26 billion worth of US goods.
This move added to global trade uncertainty. At the same time, trade tensions between the US and China remained unresolved, with reports indicating that negotiations between the two countries had stalled, further weighing on market confidence.
RBA Policy Outlook and Market Focus on Key US Data
Investors are keeping a close eye on the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and its policy outlook, especially after recent economic data reduced expectations for more rate cuts.
Australia’s economy showed unexpected strength, with growth surpassing forecasts and picking up for the first time in over a year.
However, the RBA remains cautious, as global trade uncertainties and weakening consumer confidence could still influence future policy decisions.
Looking ahead, traders are focused on Thursday’s US Producer Price Index (PPI) data and weekly jobless claims. These reports could offer new clues about the US economy and impact the direction of the US Dollar.
If the data comes in stronger or weaker than expected, it may create market volatility and influence the AUD/USD pair in the short term.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The Australian dollar is struggling to gain momentum, with AUD/USD trading at $0.6296, down marginally as traders assess shifting market sentiment.
The pair remains under pressure below its pivot point at $0.6327, signaling potential downside risks in the near term. Despite attempts at recovery, the 50-day EMA at $0.6298 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, keeping a lid on bullish attempts.
If AUD/USD remains below $0.6327, sellers could push the pair toward immediate support at $0.6268, with a break lower exposing $0.6233 and $0.6198 as next downside targets.
However, should buyers regain control, resistance stands at $0.6355, followed by $0.6383 and $0.6407, which will need to be cleared for a shift in momentum.
Macroeconomic factors, including expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and risk sentiment in global markets, will play a crucial role in the Aussie dollar’s direction.
The Reserve Bank of Australia’s stance on monetary policy also remains in focus, with any hawkish signals potentially providing support to the currency.
For now, AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.6309, with sellers targeting key support levels. A sustained move below $0.6268 could accelerate losses, while a break above resistance at $0.6355 would indicate a potential reversal.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 13, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) extended its upward trend and remained well-supported around $2,950 on Thursday, as the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data came in weaker than expected.
However, the softer inflation figures eased concerns about economic stagflation, reducing fears of an imminent recession.
This led to an outflow from US bonds, pushing bond yields higher, while stocks rallied as investors became more optimistic about economic conditions.
Despite the rise in bond yields, gold remained strong, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates sooner, keeping demand for the precious metal intact.
The US inflation data reinforced market expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in June.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 97.0% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged in its March 19 meeting, while the odds of a rate cut in May stand at 39.5%.
Geopolitical Tensions Fuel Gold’s Bullish Momentum Amid Trade and Military Concerns
In addition to economic factors, geopolitical uncertainties are further driving gold’s bullish momentum. US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose reciprocal tariffs on European goods, set to take effect on April 2.
This move has raised concerns about potential trade disputes between the US and the EU, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold as a safe-haven asset.
Meanwhile, US diplomatic efforts are underway to negotiate a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Reports suggest that a deal, which includes continued US military support for Ukraine, has already gained some traction.
If geopolitical tensions escalate further, demand for gold could increase, pushing prices toward new record highs.
Gold Poised for Further Gains Amid Economic Uncertainty and Trade Tensions
Looking ahead, analysts predict that gold will continue its upward climb. BNP Paribas expects XAU/USD to surpass $3,100 in Q2 2025, driven by heightened economic uncertainty due to Trump’s aggressive trade policies.
Furthermore, Macquarie Bank projects gold could reach $3,500 by Q3 2025, citing a worsening US budget outlook that may trigger higher inflation and increase demand for gold as an inflation hedge.
Traders will closely watch upcoming US economic data and central bank decisions for further direction. For now, gold remains well-supported as investors weigh trade tensions, Fed rate cut expectations, and the broader economic landscape.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is holding firm above $2,938.55, up 0.01%, as it consolidates within a tight range. The metal continues to benefit from expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties, supporting its bullish momentum.
The key pivot point at $2,931.19 serves as an important level—staying above this mark could fuel further gains, while a drop below may expose gold to increased selling pressure.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $2,947.09, followed by $2,956.47 and a stronger barrier at $2,965.37.
A breakout above these levels could trigger a move toward fresh highs, particularly if macroeconomic conditions continue to favor safe-haven assets.
Gold remains well-supported by its 50-day EMA at $2,914.06, reinforcing near-term bullish sentiment.
Conversely, should gold fail to hold above $2,931.19, immediate support is found at $2,921.65, followed by $2,909.24 and $2,897.64.
A break below these levels would indicate a shift in sentiment, increasing downside risk. The overall trend remains bullish as long as prices stay above $2,931, with traders eyeing key economic data for potential market-moving catalysts.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum, retreating near the 1.2914 level.
The pair is now hovering around 1.2942 as the US Dollar gains temporary support ahead of key inflation data from the United States.
However, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, due at 12:30 GMT, is set to be a major driver for market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy stance.
Investors remain cautious after Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently signaled that the central bank could maintain its restrictive policy for longer if inflation does not ease as expected.
Market forecasts suggest that headline inflation may slow to 2.9% from 3.0% in January, while core CPI is expected to rise by 3.2%, slightly down from 3.3%.
If inflation cools, expectations for a Fed rate cut in May could grow, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing a 42% chance—up from 10.4% last month.
However, higher-than-expected inflation could reduce these chances, strengthening the US Dollar and limiting the Pound’s gains.
GBP/USD Supported by BoE Rate Expectations and Upcoming UK Economic Data
Despite some pressure on GBP/USD, the Pound is still supported by expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will keep its interest rate at 4.5% during next week’s policy meeting.
Several BoE officials, including Governor Andrew Bailey, have stressed the need for a cautious approach to reducing restrictive policies, pointing to ongoing inflation concerns.
However, BoE member Catherine Mann has suggested a more aggressive approach to easing due to the volatility in global financial markets.
Moreover, traders are keeping an eye on the UK’s upcoming economic data, including the January Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report and Industrial and Manufacturing Production figures, scheduled for release on Friday.
The UK economy is expected to have expanded by 0.1% in January, down from 0.4% in December, while factory data is likely to show a decline.
Market Uncertainty and Key Data Events Ahead for GBP/USD
Adding to market uncertainty is former US President Donald Trump’s position on trade policies. His recent threats to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports caused concern among investors.
However, the decision was reversed after talks with Canadian officials. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick explained that Trump’s tariff threats are often used as bargaining tactics in trade negotiations. Still, the unpredictability of these policies continues to affect market sentiment.
Looking ahead, GBP/USD traders will closely monitor the US inflation report and upcoming UK economic data for further direction.
However, the softer inflation print from the US could weaken the Dollar and support GBP/USD, while strong inflation figures might reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, limiting the Pound’s upside potential.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.29285, showing slight downward pressure but maintaining stability above the key pivot point at $1.29094. The 50-day EMA at $1.29086 reinforces this level, suggesting that staying above it could keep the pair in a bullish zone.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at $1.29655, followed by $1.30114 and $1.30606. A break above $1.29655 could spark further upside momentum, with traders eyeing the psychological $1.30 level as a potential inflection point. However, failing to surpass resistance may lead to continued range-bound movement.
Support levels lie at $1.28691, $1.28206, and $1.27756. A drop below $1.28691 could indicate renewed selling pressure, possibly pushing the pair toward $1.28206, where stronger demand could emerge. The 50-day EMA at $1.29086 is a key short-term threshold—if breached, it could shift sentiment to the downside.
A buy strategy above $1.29094 is preferred, targeting $1.29788 while maintaining a stop-loss at $1.28740 to mitigate risk.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, staying well bid around the 1.0926 level.
However, the bullish bias can be attributed to growing concerns surrounding the US economic outlook under President Donald Trump’s leadership, which has put pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
Another factor supporting the EUR/USD pair is optimism about Germany’s defense spending deal. Investors hope debt restructuring will boost defense spending and stimulate Eurozone growth, potentially influencing the ECB’s interest rate stance.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Recession Fears and Trump’s Tariff Agenda
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is underperforming, mainly due to concerns that President Trump’s tariff policies could increase the risk of a US recession.
His "America First" approach is seen as potentially driving up inflation, which could hurt consumer purchasing power already impacted by high inflation.
These worries grew after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick defended Trump’s policies in a CBS interview on Tuesday, acknowledging they could lead to a recession but arguing they are necessary for the country’s future.
Looking forward, traders are waiting for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, set to be published at 12:30 GMT.
This inflation data is important because it will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next actions on interest rates.
Headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.9% year-over-year, down from 3% in January. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecasted to ease to 3.2% from 3.3%.
These numbers could impact speculation about future rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would affect the USD.
Euro Strengthened by German Economic Optimism and Ukrainian Ceasefire
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) has gained traction over the past week, driven by optimism surrounding the German defense spending deal.
Investors are hopeful that a clearance for German debt restructuring could increase defense spending and stimulate economic growth in the Eurozone.
The upcoming meeting between key German political figures is seen as pivotal in determining the course of this potential fiscal policy shift.
If successful, it could lead to a reassessment of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s dovish stance on interest rates.
Moreover, positive developments on the geopolitical front, including Ukraine’s agreement to a 30-day ceasefire, have boosted the Euro’s appeal.
With US officials in Saudi Arabia facilitating peace talks, optimism about stability in the region has given further support to the EUR.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.09041, maintaining a neutral stance as investors await fresh economic catalysts.
The pivot point at $1.08848 serves as a crucial threshold, with the pair needing to hold above this level to sustain bullish momentum.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 provides further support, reinforcing the short-term upward trend.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $1.09488, followed by $1.10045 and $1.10602. A breakout above $1.09488 could push the pair toward the psychological $1.10 level, which, if breached, may lead to further gains. However, failure to clear this resistance zone may keep the pair in consolidation mode.
Support levels are $1.08374, $1.07700, and $1.07151. A move below $1.08374 would signal increased selling pressure, potentially triggering a deeper pullback toward the $1.07700 handle.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 is a key technical floor—if breached, it could accelerate downside momentum.
Given the current setup, a buy position above $1.08848 is favored, targeting $1.09542 for profit, while maintaining a stop-loss at $1.08449 to protect against downside risks.
The short-term outlook hinges on upcoming economic data, particularly U.S. inflation figures and European Central Bank signals, which could drive volatility.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Wednesday, gold prices remained steady, holding above the $2,900 mark as investors stayed cautious ahead of the highly anticipated US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report.
However, the upcoming inflation data will help determine the Fed's rate decisions, which will affect gold prices in the coming weeks.
Moreover, the risk-off mood in the market also helped keep gold prices high. The global market sentiment has been flashing red on the day amid combination of factors.
Gold Gains Support Amid US Tariff Impact on Steel and Aluminum
Gold also found support as trade tensions escalated following President Donald Trump’s 25% tariff on US steel and aluminum imports, which took effect on Wednesday.
The tariff, impacting a broad range of industrial and consumer goods, fueled concerns over a economic slowdown.
Initially, Trump proposed increasing tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum to 50% in response to Ontario’s trade restrictions.
However, following negotiations, the US administration retracted the proposed hike, maintaining the 25% rate.
Therefore, the trade uncertainty has fueled concerns of a global economic downturn, further reinforcing gold’s status as a safe-haven asset.
US Dollar Stabilizes as Traders Await Key Inflation Data and Job Market Trends
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar gained modest traction but remained near the four-month low recorded last week.
Despite the dollar’s slight recovery, gold prices held steady, supported by risk aversion amid economic uncertainty.
On the data front, the US job openings increased by 232,000 to 7.740 million in January, according to the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report.
However, revisions showed fewer vacancies than previously estimated from January to December 2024. Despite strong hiring numbers, small business confidence dipped for the third consecutive month, reflecting concerns over trade policy volatility and fiscal uncertainties.
Traders are now closely watching the upcoming US inflation data, as it could influence the Fed’s rate decision. However, the lower-than-expected CPI reading may boost expectations for rate cuts, potentially driving gold prices higher. Conversely, stronger inflation data could strengthen the US dollar and cap gold’s.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,918.48, up 0.02%, as it hovers near its pivot point at $2,919.09. The metal remains in a tight range, with traders awaiting a decisive move amid shifting market sentiment.
The 50-day EMA at $2,908.68 suggests moderate downside pressure, with short-term selling opportunities emerging below the pivot.
On the upside, gold faces immediate resistance at $2,930.55, with additional barriers at $2,942.01 and $2,954.43. A break above these levels could trigger bullish momentum, targeting new highs. However, failure to surpass $2,930.55 may reinforce a bearish outlook.
Support lies at $2,902.12, with further downside levels at $2,891.50 and $2,880.40. A drop below $2,902.12 would confirm increased selling pressure, potentially accelerating losses toward lower support zones.
The pivot point at $2,919.09 serves as a key threshold—trading below it favors a bearish bias, while sustaining above it may shift momentum toward the bulls.
Given the technical setup, a sell position below $2,919 is favored, targeting $2,902 for a take-profit level, with a stop-loss placed at $2,930. Gold’s near-term movement will largely depend on U.S. inflation data and Federal Reserve signals, which could sway sentiment and drive volatility.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD is struggling to stop its declines and remain under pressure around 1.4407.
The pair faces downside pressure as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid growing concerns that uncertainty over tariff policies could push the US economy into recession.
Investors are now looking ahead to February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday, which could provide further insights into inflation trends and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential policy direction.
US Economic Uncertainty Weighs on the US Dollar
The global market sentiment turned cautious after former President Donald Trump said the economy is in a "transition period," hinting at a possible slowdown. Investors saw this as a warning of economic trouble.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is weak, staying around 103.80. Meanwhile, US job data for February was weaker than expected, increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year.
According to LSEG data, traders now anticipate a total of 75 basis points (bps) in rate cuts, with a June rate cut fully priced in. On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by only 151,000 in February, missing the forecast of 160,000.
Meanwhile, January’s job growth was revised downward to 125,000 from 143,000. This weak labor market data adds to recession fears and puts further pressure on the US Dollar.
Impact of Tariff Policies and Trade Tensions
On the other hand, the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum will start on Wednesday as planned.
US steelmakers have urged Trump to maintain these tariffs, but businesses reliant on these materials may face increased costs, further impacting economic stability.
Meanwhile, Trump also commented on trade relations with Ukraine, mentioning that his administration is considering lifting an intelligence pause and reviewing tariff measures against Russia. These geopolitical uncertainties contribute to market caution, further weakening USD sentiment.
Bank of Canada’s Rate Decision and USD/CAD Outlook
On the Canadian front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming March meeting on Wednesday.
Analysts at CIBC predict that the BoC will lower its benchmark rate to 2.75%, with further cuts likely if trade uncertainty persists.
Hence, the rate cut by the BoC could limit USD/CAD’s downside, but broader US economic concerns are likely to keep the pair under pressure.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch the US CPI data release on Wednesday, as it could shape expectations for the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions.
If inflation remains subdued, it could reinforce expectations for multiple rate cuts, adding further pressure on the USD and influencing USD/CAD’s movement.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.44456, edging up 0.03% as buyers maintain control above the $1.44097 pivot point. The pair remains in an uptrend, bolstered by a weaker Canadian dollar and sustained strength in the U.S. dollar.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43654 is providing strong dynamic support, reinforcing bullish momentum. If USD/CAD continues higher, immediate resistance is seen at $1.44735, followed by $1.45426 and $1.45986, signaling further upside potential.
On the downside, support at $1.43537 remains critical—losing this level could push the pair toward $1.43003, with further declines targeting $1.42409. However, as long as USD/CAD holds above the $1.44097 pivot point, the short-term trend favors buyers.
From a trading perspective, a buy entry above $1.44097 is favored, targeting $1.44739, with a stop loss at $1.43773. Key drivers include Fed rate expectations, oil price fluctuations, and overall risk sentiment in global markets.
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