Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Feb 13, 2025
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its bearish rally and remained under pressure around the 153.70 level.

The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened after Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) data came out stronger than expected, increasing the chances that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again.

This gave the JPY a boost, making it more attractive to investors. Meanwhile, a drop in US Treasury bond yields added more pressure on the US Dollar (USD), further pushing USD/JPY lower.

However, the downside for the pair remains limited due to concerns over new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on steel and aluminum imports, which could impact global trade and weigh on the JPY.

Moreover, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain its hawkish stance, especially after strong US inflation data released on Wednesday. This could support the USD and prevent the USD/JPY pair from falling further.

As a result, traders should be cautious before expecting a significant drop in the currency pair, especially after it reached a one-week high the previous day.

USD/JPY Struggles as Fed's Hawkish Stance Clashes with BoJ Rate Hike Expectations

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar failed to stop its bearish rally and remained under pressure as the latest inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high for longer.

On the data front, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January, marking the biggest increase since August 2023. On a yearly basis, inflation climbed to 3%, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) reached 3.3%.

This suggests that inflation remains sticky, supporting the Fed’s hawkish stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also signaled that monetary policy will stay restrictive as inflation is still above the 2% target. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond saw its biggest jump since December, increasing the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, which could help limit the US dollar’s losses.

Japanese Yen Gains on BoJ Rate Hike Hopes but Faces Trade Uncertainty

Apart from this, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained strength as inflationary pressures continued to build. Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3% in January and 4.2% year-over-year, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might raise interest rates again. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Himino also hinted at a possible rate hike if economic conditions align with projections.

However, JPY bulls showed some caution due to concerns that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on commodity imports could hurt Japan’s economy.

Looking ahead, traders will focus on the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims data, which could influence the US dollar’s movement and impact the USD/JPY pair.

USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY – Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair is trading at 154.05, showing signs of weakness as it struggles to hold above its pivot point at 154.20. A failure to maintain this level suggests bearish momentum could intensify, with immediate support at 153.74.

A break below this threshold could expose the pair to deeper declines toward 153.27 and 152.77, reinforcing the case for a potential downside move.

On the upside, resistance is forming at 154.80, with further hurdles at 155.24 and 155.86. A push above these levels could reignite bullish sentiment, paving the way for renewed buying interest. However, current price action suggests selling pressure is capping gains, limiting any immediate recovery attempts.

The 50-day EMA at 153.35 serves as a key indicator to watch. If USD/JPY drops below this mark, it could confirm further downside potential, triggering additional selling pressure.

Conversely, a sustained move above the pivot at 154.20 may shift momentum in favor of buyers, though a decisive break above 154.80 would be required to confirm an uptrend.

Traders looking to capitalize on this setup may consider selling below 154.18, with a take-profit target at 153.50 and a stop-loss set at 154.78 to manage risk effectively. While short-term volatility remains, overall sentiment leans bearish unless buyers reclaim key resistance levels.

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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Feb 13, 2025
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their bullish momentum, reaching an intra-day high of $2,922. The recent surge is largely attributed to a decline in US Treasury bond yields, which weakened the US Dollar and made gold more attractive to investors.

Furthermore, growing fears of a global trade war, fueled by former US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies, have intensified demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

Despite gold’s strong upward trend, the concerns over rising US inflation persist. On the data front, the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed a higher-than-expected increase in consumer prices, reinforcing speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain its hawkish stance.

Hence, the prospect of prolonged high interest rates could pose challenges for gold’s rally, as rising US Treasury yields and a stronger Dollar typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold.

US Dollar Struggles Amid Inflation Concerns and Trade Tariffs, Supporting Gold Prices

On the macroeconomic front, the US Dollar has struggled to gain momentum, providing additional support for gold. The latest US inflation report initially triggered market volatility, but persistent concerns over former US President Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs kept safe-haven demand strong.

Trump’s decision to impose a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, along with threats of additional tariffs on countries with high levies on US goods, has heightened market uncertainty.

On the data front, the US inflation data showed that consumer prices surged in January, with the CPI rising by 0.5%, marking the highest increase since August 2023. The annual inflation rate climbed to 3%, while core inflation (excluding food and energy) rose to 3.3%, exceeding market expectations.

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that inflation remains a key concern, making it unlikely that the central bank will cut interest rates until inflation moves closer to the 2% target.

Meanwhile, strong US economic data, including robust job market performance and GDP growth, further supports the Fed’s cautious stance.

Investors are now turning their attention to the upcoming Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which could provide additional clarity on inflation trends.

If inflation remains elevated, gold and silver prices may face resistance, but if inflation shows signs of easing, both metals could continue their bullish momentum.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2917.37, showing slight downside pressure as it hovers just below its pivot point of $2922.88. The 50-day EMA at $2900.68 provides a crucial support level, reinforcing near-term stability. However, the bearish sentiment remains intact as long as gold stays below the pivot.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $2943.27, with a breakout potentially pushing gold towards $2959.89 and ultimately $2975.96. However, recent price action suggests that buyers are struggling to gain control, making a sustained move above these levels uncertain.

On the downside, immediate support is set at $2898.08, followed by $2879.70 and $2864.94. A break below these levels could accelerate selling momentum, with traders eyeing the next key levels for potential entry points.

The entry strategy favors selling below $2922, targeting $2900 as a take-profit level, while stop-loss is set at $2935 to manage risk. The overall trend suggests cautious bearish sentiment, with gold needing a decisive breakout above resistance levels to shift momentum back in favor of buyers.

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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Feb 13, 2025
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair struggled to recover and stayed under pressure around the 0.6270 level, even dropping to an intra-day low of 0.6264.

However, the reason for this downward trend can be linked to growing fears of a global trade war. The US is expected to announce new tariffs, which could hurt global trade and weaken riskier currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Despite this pressure, the AUD later found some support after Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.6% in February, up from 4.0% previously.

However, the gains in the AUD remain limited as traders await key US economic data. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, due later in the day, could influence the US Dollar’s (USD) movement.

If the data shows higher-than-expected inflation, it could strengthen the USD by increasing the chances of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates higher. This would add further pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

US Dollar Weakness and Trade Tensions Impact AUD/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing traction and remains under pressure as the US Dollar Index (DXY) trades around 108.00.

This weakness comes after US inflation data showed the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 3.0% year-over-year in January, slightly higher than the expected 2.9%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, also increased to 3.3% from 3.2%.

These higher inflation figures have lowered expectations for an early interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed).

However, the CME FedWatch Tool now suggests only a 30% chance of a rate cut in June. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reinforced this view, stating that strong job growth and rising prices mean there’s no rush to lower rates.

Meanwhile, a Reuters poll shows that most economists now expect the Fed to delay cutting rates until later this year.

For the AUD/USD pair, the weakening US Dollar provides some support, but gains remain limited due to ongoing trade concerns. US President Donald Trump has expanded steel and aluminum tariffs by 25%, affecting key allies like Australia.

This move has raised fears of further trade tensions, which could negatively impact riskier currencies like the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Meanwhile, the Fed is expected to keep interest rates steady, with officials like Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack emphasizing a patient approach. Investors now await more US economic data, as any surprises could influence the AUD/USD pair’s direction in the coming days.

AUD/USD Faces Pressure Amid Trade Tensions and RBA Rate Cut Expectations

On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) managed to gain some ground against the US Dollar (USD) after Australia’s Consumer Inflation Expectations rose to 4.6% in February from 4.0% previously.

This increase suggests that inflation pressures remain, which could influence the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) monetary policy. However, the AUD’s gains were limited due to growing concerns over a potential global trade war.

US President Donald Trump announced a 25% tariff hike on imports, sparking fears of economic strain. Traders are also closely watching the US Producer Price Index (PPI) inflation report, which could impact the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) next move on interest rates.

Meanwhile, trade tensions between the US and Australia have added more pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

Trump’s trade adviser, Peter Navarro, accused Australia of damaging the aluminum market, increasing uncertainty about whether Australia will receive exemptions from the new tariffs.

Moreover, expectations for an RBA interest rate cut are rising, with a 95% chance of rates being lowered from 4.35% to 4.10% in the coming months. If the RBA moves forward with a rate cut, the AUD could face further downside against the USD.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.62926, hovering above its pivot point of $0.62860. The pair is attempting to sustain its modest upside momentum, supported by the 50-day EMA at $0.62845, which reinforces near-term bullish sentiment.

On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $0.63149, with a breakout paving the way for a move towards $0.63357 and potentially $0.63568 if buyers maintain control. A sustained rally above these levels would indicate growing strength in the Australian dollar, driven by risk appetite and a softening U.S. dollar.

Conversely, immediate support is located at $0.62665, followed by $0.62438 and $0.62214. A decisive drop below these levels would expose AUD/USD to further losses, increasing the likelihood of a bearish reversal.

The preferred entry strategy is to buy above $0.62863, targeting $0.63253 as a take-profit level, while stop-loss is set at $0.62662 to manage downside risk.

Overall, the pair remains bullish above $0.62860, with a break above $0.63149 likely to confirm a stronger uptrend. However, traders should monitor price action closely, as a failure to hold above support levels could shift sentiment in favor of the bears.

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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 12, 2025

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Feb 12, 2025
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) continue to slide, struggling to find support around the $2,890 level, with an intra-day dip to $2,883. However, the main reason behind this decline is the strengthening US Dollar, which gained momentum after Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Tuesday.

His remarks signaled that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates higher for longer, reducing the appeal of gold. As a result, investors are leaning towards the dollar, putting further pressure on gold prices.

Meanwhile, the upbeat mood in the markets has made investors less interested in gold, which is typically seen as a safe-haven asset. On top of that, worries about a potential economic slowdown fueled by former US President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs and the risk of a global trade war could still keep gold from falling too much, as investors may turn back to it for safety.

Stronger US Dollar and Fed’s Cautious Stance Weigh on Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY) is holding strong near 108.00 as traders await key inflation data. The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, set to be released on Wednesday, is expected to show headline inflation steady at 2.9% year-over-year, while core inflation may slightly dip to 3.1% from 3.2%.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his testimony to Congress, stated that the central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates, citing a strong job market and stable economic growth.

He also warned that former President Donald Trump's new tariffs on imports could push prices higher, making it even harder for the Fed to lower rates.

Consequently, the market now expects the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts, possibly until the next quarter, as inflation concerns remain.

Many economists who previously predicted a rate cut in March have revised their expectations, with most now anticipating a cut by June.

As a result, the US Dollar continues to gain strength as the Fed signals a cautious approach, following January’s jobs report, which showed slowing job growth but a lower unemployment rate.

Meanwhile, Fed officials have expressed mixed views, with some, like Neel Kashkari, open to supporting rate cuts if inflation data improves while the job market stays strong.

For gold prices, this outlook is bearish, as a stronger US Dollar and delayed rate cuts make the precious metal less attractive. Moreover, Trump's decision to expand tariffs on steel and aluminum could further fuel inflation, potentially forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is experiencing downward pressure, trading at $2,886.14, slipping 0.01% as the stronger U.S. dollar and hawkish Federal Reserve outlook weigh on sentiment. The metal remains below its pivot point at $2,898.48, signaling a potential continuation of bearish momentum.

On the technical front, the 50-day EMA at $2,854.23 is acting as a key support level, while immediate resistance stands at $2,943.27. A break above this level could trigger further upside towards $2,966.54, with an extended rally possible up to $2,990.75. However, the current structure suggests a lower probability of a breakout as long as the dollar remains strong.

Downside risks persist, with $2,862.33 serving as immediate support. A break below this level could accelerate selling pressure, exposing $2,833.82 and potentially deeper support at $2,806.78. Given the setup, traders may consider short positions below $2,898, targeting $2,862, with a stop loss at $2,920 to manage risk.

Gold’s near-term trend will likely be dictated by upcoming U.S. economic data, particularly inflation figures and any shifts in Federal Reserve rate expectations. If inflation softens, gold could regain ground; however, persistently high inflation may reinforce the dollar’s strength, limiting gold’s upside potential.

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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Feb 12, 2025

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Feb 12, 2025
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD currency pair moved higher, reaching close to 1.0380 ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January, set to be released at 13:30 GMT.

The Euro (EUR) continued to perform well, strengthening against most other major currencies. This rise came despite growing concerns about a potential trade war between the US and the Eurozone.

At the same time, tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) were rising. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the EU would not stand by if President Donald Trump’s administration went ahead with imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

EUR/USD Holds Firm Amid Trade War Concerns and ECB Rate Cut Expectations

On the EUR front, the shared currency has managed to hold its ground and continues to perform well against major peers, even as concerns over a trade war between the US and the Eurozone grow.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned that the EU would not stay silent if the US imposes 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports.

She made it clear that the EU is prepared to take action to protect its economic interests and could introduce countermeasures in response. This growing tension has added uncertainty to the market, but the Euro remains steady, keeping EUR/USD firm.

Former US President Donald Trump has already signed executive orders enforcing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports without any exemptions, aiming to boost local production. He is also considering imposing similar tariffs on other countries he believes engage in unfair trade practices.

Market participants worry that the Eurozone could face additional pressure from reciprocal tariffs. Currently, the EU imposes a 10% tariff on US automobile imports, while US domestic cars entering the EU face a lower 2.5% import duty. These trade conflicts could weigh on EUR/USD movements in the coming days.

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to announce more interest rate cuts this year, as inflation remains below its 2% target. ECB policymaker and Bank of France head Francois Villeroy de Galhau has warned that Trump’s trade policies could harm the economy in the long run.

Investors are also awaiting the European Commission’s economic growth forecasts, which will be released on Thursday and could influence EUR/USD trading.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD – Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is hovering around $1.03581, showing slight weakness as the U.S. dollar maintains its strength. The pair has slipped below its pivot point at $1.03670, reinforcing a short-term bearish bias.

Persistent concerns over Federal Reserve policy tightening and resilient U.S. economic data have kept pressure on the euro, limiting its upside potential.

On the technical side, the 50-day EMA at $1.03465 is acting as a dynamic support level. Immediate resistance stands at $1.04093, with a breakout above this level potentially opening the door to further gains toward $1.04497 and $1.04922. However, the current trend suggests that buyers remain cautious amid macroeconomic uncertainty.

Downside risks are evident, with $1.02997 serving as the first major support level. A sustained break below this level could accelerate losses toward $1.02551, followed by a deeper decline toward $1.02135.

Given the technical setup, traders may look for sell positions below $1.03674, targeting $1.03007, while maintaining a stop loss at $1.04115.

Looking ahead, market participants will be closely watching U.S. inflation data and any Federal Reserve commentary for signals on future rate policy.

A softer inflation reading could weaken the dollar and support the euro, while persistent inflationary pressures may reinforce the Fed’s hawkish stance, keeping EUR/USD under pressure.

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GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 12, 2025

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Feb 12, 2025
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD – Technical Analysis

GBP/USD is trading at $1.24440, struggling to hold ground as bearish sentiment prevails. The pair has dipped below its pivot point at $1.24525, signaling potential downside movement.

The strength of the U.S. dollar, driven by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish outlook and resilient economic data, continues to weigh on the British pound.

From a technical perspective, the 50-day EMA at $1.24194 is providing dynamic support, but if breached, it could accelerate losses. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.24911, and a break above this level may push GBP/USD toward the next targets at $1.25420 and $1.25987. However, with sellers maintaining control, any short-term gains could be met with resistance.

On the downside, $1.23972 is the first key support level. A sustained move below this level could deepen losses toward $1.23340, with the next major support resting at $1.22743.

Given the current trend, traders may consider sell positions below $1.24521, aiming for a take profit at $1.23843 while placing a stop loss at $1.24913 to manage risk.

Looking ahead, traders will monitor upcoming U.S. inflation figures which may further influence market sentiment, determining whether the dollar continues its dominance or retreats, giving GBP/USD a potential lift.

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GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 11, 2025

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Feb 11, 2025
Gold

Daily Price Outlook

Gold’s price (XAU/USD) surged to an intra-day high of $2,942 but struggled to maintain its gains, dropping to around $2,902. The decline is driven by shifting market sentiment and growing uncertainty over US monetary policy.

Investors are closely watching Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony to lawmakers. Powell is expected to emphasize the strength of the US economy, suggesting that the Fed is in no rush to cut interest rates. This is bearish for Gold, as higher rates make non-yielding assets like Gold less attractive.

Besides this, former US President Donald Trump has imposed a 25% tariff on steel and aluminum imports for all countries. China has responded with quiet retaliatory tariffs but hasn’t taken aggressive action yet. Markets remain cautious, but with no major escalation, safe-haven demand for Gold is fading.

If Powell maintains a hawkish stance, Gold could see further downside. However, any unexpected geopolitical tensions or economic slowdown could still provide support.

Strong US Dollar and Delayed Fed Rate Cuts Weigh on Gold Prices

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar continues to rise for the fourth straight session, reaching near 108.50. This strength comes as expectations for Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts are shifting.

However, the recent Reuters poll suggests that the Fed may delay cutting interest rates until the next quarter due to rising inflation concerns. Many analysts who previously expected a rate cut in March now anticipate it happening by June, though opinions remain divided.

On the data front, the latest US jobs report showed that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by only 143,000 in January, far below December’s 307,000. However, the Unemployment Rate unexpectedly fell to 4% from 4.1%.

Initial Jobless Claims also rose to 219K, higher than expected, signaling some labor market weakness. Despite these mixed signals, Fed officials remain cautious about inflation, making them hesitant to cut rates too soon.

For Gold (XAU/USD), the strong US dollar and delayed rate-cut expectations are bearish factors. Higher interest rates make Gold less attractive compared to yield-bearing assets. If the Fed maintains a hawkish stance, Gold could face further downside pressure in the near term.

GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading at $2,866.29, down 0.02%, as investors assess the metal’s resilience amid shifting macroeconomic conditions. The precious metal remains in a consolidation phase, hovering near key support levels while facing resistance from recent highs.

From a technical perspective, gold’s pivot point at $2,906.72 serves as a crucial inflection level. A break above this level could reinforce bullish sentiment, leading to an upward push toward immediate resistance at $2,943.27. If momentum continues, gold could challenge $2,966.54, with a potential test of $2,990.75, marking a significant hurdle for further gains.

On the downside, immediate support sits at $2,882.03, followed by $2,859.72 and $2,833.82. A drop below $2,859.72 would signal a deeper correction, potentially exposing gold to a retest of the 50-day EMA at $2,839.99. A sustained breakdown under $2,833.82 could trigger additional selling pressure, shifting sentiment in favor of bears.

Traders should closely monitor gold’s reaction near the $2,906.72 pivot. A sustained break above this level favors continued gains, while a rejection could lead to further downside.

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USD/CAD Price Analysis – Feb 11, 2025

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Feb 11, 2025
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session on Tuesday, the USD/CAD currency pair continued to rise and reaching around 1.4340. The increase came after US President Donald Trump announced a sharp hike in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to a flat 25% on Monday.

This move is meant to protect struggling US industries but has also raised concerns about a possible trade war, adding pressure to global markets.

Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against major currencies, extended its gains for the fourth consecutive session, reaching around 108.50. The stronger dollar is putting pressure on the Canadian dollar, making USD/CAD move higher.

Moreover, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is now expected to keep interest rates steady throughout the year. This expectation follows the latest jobs report released on Friday, which showed slowing job growth but a lower unemployment rate.

Thus, the stable Fed policy is providing further support to the US dollar, keeping USD/CAD in an uptrend. Traders will watch for further developments in trade policies and economic data for the next move in the pair.

Canada Faces Pressure as US Imposes Higher Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum

On the CAD front, the currency weakened due to rising trade tensions after US President Donald Trump increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to a flat 25% on Monday. This decision removes all exemptions, including special deals and exclusions for certain products.

The new tariffs will take effect on March 12, and further restrictions on microchips and vehicles may follow. The move is meant to protect US industries but has raised concerns about a potential trade war, putting pressure on the Canadian Dollar.

Canada is the biggest supplier of aluminum to the US, providing nearly 80% of its imports in 2024. In 2023, steel imports made up about 23% of US steel consumption, with Canada, Brazil, and Mexico being the top suppliers.

The increased tariffs could negatively impact Canada’s exports, reducing demand for the CAD and pushing the USD/CAD pair higher. Traders are watching closely to see how Canada responds.

Canada’s Industry Minister, Francois-Philippe Champagne, criticized the tariffs as “totally unjustified.” He highlighted that Canadian steel and aluminum are essential for key US industries like defense, shipbuilding, energy, and automotive manufacturing.

He also stated that Canada is consulting with international partners and will respond in a “clear and calibrated” manner. (edited)

USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD – Technical Analysis

USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.43342, marking a slight 0.01% gain, as the pair navigates a critical price zone. The currency pair remains under bullish pressure, reflecting strength in the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar, amid fluctuating commodity prices and macroeconomic data.

From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD is positioned above its pivot point at $1.42750, indicating the potential for further upside. If buyers maintain control, the pair could test immediate resistance at $1.43803. A breakout above this level could open the door toward $1.44394, with an extended rally targeting $1.45029, a level that has previously acted as a significant supply zone.

Conversely, key support levels are situated at $1.42193, followed by $1.41602. A drop below these levels could shift momentum in favor of sellers, with a potential move toward $1.40984, where buyers are likely to step in.

Moving averages suggest a mixed outlook. The 50-day EMA at $1.43988 remains above the current price, indicating short-term resistance. A sustained break above this level would reinforce bullish sentiment, while rejection at this zone could trigger a pullback.

Traders should monitor USD/CAD’s reaction near $1.43803. A strong close above this level could confirm further upside, while a failure to breach resistance may lead to consolidation or retracement toward lower support.

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AUD/USD Price Analysis – Feb 11, 2025

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Feb 11, 2025
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward rally and remained under pressure around 0.6260 level on Tuesday. However, the decline came after former US President Donald Trump announced a 25% expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, removing trade agreements with key allies, including Australia. The White House confirmed that all previous tax exclusions had been removed and hinted at possible new tariffs on microchips and vehicles in the coming weeks.

At the same time, the US Dollar gained strength, putting more pressure on the Australian Dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the USD against six major currencies, continued its winning streak for the fourth straight session, climbing near 108.50. A stronger USD makes it harder for the Australian Dollar to recover, keeping the AUD/USD pair under pressure.

Strong US Dollar and Fed's Rate Cut Uncertainty Weigh on AUD/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar has been gaining strength, putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, extended its winning streak for the fourth consecutive session, reaching near 108.50.

The main reason behind this strength is the growing belief that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts due to rising inflation concerns.

A recent Reuters poll showed that most economists no longer expect a rate cut in March, with many now predicting at least one cut by June. However, opinions remain divided.

The US job market data also played a role in boosting the USD. January’s Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed weaker job growth, adding only 143,000 jobs compared to December’s 307,000. Despite this, the Unemployment Rate dropped slightly to 4%, giving the Fed more reason to keep interest rates steady for now.

Meanwhile, US economic data continues to influence market sentiment. Initial Jobless Claims rose to 219K last week, surpassing expectations and the previous week's revised 208K.

This suggests some weakness in the labor market, but Fed officials remain cautious. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted uncertainty in economic policies, making it harder to predict inflation trends.

Fed Governor Adriana Kugler noted that the economy is still strong, but progress on inflation has been uneven. Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari mentioned that he would support rate cuts only if inflation improves and the labor market remains stable. These factors keep the USD strong, weighing on the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD Under Pressure Amid US Tariffs and RBA Rate Cut Expectations

On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar is under pressure after former US President Donald Trump announced a 25% expansion of steel and aluminum tariffs, removing trade agreements with key allies, including Australia.

The White House confirmed that all previous import tax exclusions had been removed and hinted at possible new tariffs on microchips and vehicles.

However, Trump later mentioned that he would consider exempting Australia from the steel tariffs, citing the trade deficit between the two countries. In response, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell stated that Australia is actively seeking an exemption, similar to the one granted in 2018.

This uncertainty in trade policies has weighed on the AUD/USD pair, as investors fear a negative impact on Australia's economy.

Meanwhile, the Australian economy is facing mixed signals. The Westpac Consumer Confidence index edged up slightly by 0.1% in February, but overall confidence remains weak due to concerns over household finances and the rising cost of living.

Moreover, traders are now expecting the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to cut interest rates at its next meeting, with a 95% probability of a reduction from 4.35% to 4.10%. The expectation of lower rates has pressured the AUD further.

On the global front, China’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed some improvement, rising 0.5% year-on-year in January. However, it missed monthly growth expectations, adding to uncertainties, as China is Australia’s largest trading partner and a key driver of the Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) is facing downward pressure, trading at $0.62745, down 0.01% over the last 24 hours. The pair remains near its pivot point at $0.62606, struggling to find directional momentum as market participants assess broader macroeconomic trends and U.S. dollar strength.

From a technical standpoint, immediate resistance is located at $0.63014, followed by $0.63303 and $0.63612. A break above $0.63014 could spark further upside, especially if buying pressure builds above the 50-day EMA at $0.62422. A decisive close above $0.63303 would indicate a shift toward bullish sentiment, paving the way for a recovery.

On the downside, immediate support sits at $0.62322, with additional cushions at $0.62043 and $0.61711. A drop below $0.62322 may trigger increased selling pressure, potentially pushing AUD/USD toward the lower supports. If the pair breaks below $0.62043, it could signal a deeper correction.

Traders should watch for a break above $0.63014 to confirm bullish sentiment. However, failure to hold above $0.62606 could shift momentum back in favor of sellers, leading to a potential test of lower support levels.

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Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 10, 2025

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Feb 10, 2025
Gbpusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair sustained its bullish trend and remained higher around the 1.2419 level, hitting an intra-day high of 1.2422.

However, the reason for this upward trend can be attributed to the strong performance of the British Pound, which gained traction despite the bullish US Dollar.

Normally, a stronger US Dollar puts pressure on GBP/USD, but this time, the Pound showed resilience and even outperformed many other major currencies.

This strength in the Pound comes as investors digest the Bank of England’s (BoE) recent policy stance. The BoE has adopted a more cautious or “dovish” approach, signaling that interest rate cuts could come sooner than expected. At the same time, the central bank lowered its economic growth forecasts for the year.

Despite this, the Pound continues to hold strong, possibly because the market had already priced in these concerns, and investors are now focusing on other factors influencing GBP’s movement.

BoE’s Cautious Stance and Economic Outlook Impact on GBP/USD

On the BoE front, the Pound Sterling has been performing well against its major peers as investors focus on the Bank of England’s (BoE) recent stance. Last week, the BoE lowered interest rates by 0.25% to 4.5%.

BoE Governor Andrew Bailey mentioned that the outlook for monetary policy would be "gradual and cautious," with expectations that inflation in the UK could rise to 3.7% in the third quarter due to higher energy prices, before returning to the target of 2%.

Despite this, investors were surprised by a vote from BoE member Catherine Mann, who called for a larger 0.5% rate cut, signaling a more dovish stance on policy. This shift in tone raised concerns about the UK’s economic outlook, especially as the BoE also reduced its GDP growth forecast for the year to just 0.75%.

Besides this, the comments from BoE Chief Economist Huw Pill emphasized strong wage growth as a reason for caution in cutting rates further. He noted that wages increased by 5.6% in the three months ending November, the highest since June 2024.

Therefore, the BoE’s cautious stance and reduced GDP forecasts create uncertainty, limiting GBP/USD gains. However, strong wage growth supports the Pound. If Andrew Bailey signals further rate cuts in his speech, GBP/USD could weaken, but any hawkish tone may boost the pair.

GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD – Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.24049, down 0.02%, as the market consolidates following recent fluctuations. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.24290 is acting as a resistance level, restricting bullish momentum while the pair struggles to maintain its footing above the pivot point at $1.23668.

With the U.S. dollar showing strength amid shifting macroeconomic conditions, GBP/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure.

The pivot point at $1.23668 is a crucial marker for trend direction. Holding above this level keeps the bullish bias intact, with immediate resistance at $1.24599, followed by $1.25374 and $1.25987.

A decisive break above these levels could open the door for a sustained upward move, particularly if market sentiment shifts in favor of the British pound.

On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.23048, with further weakness potentially extending declines toward $1.22507 and $1.21903.

A failure to defend these levels could accelerate selling pressure, leading to deeper losses. However, a successful hold above $1.23668 may attract buyers, positioning GBP/USD for a possible rebound.

Traders considering a long position should look for entries above $1.23676, targeting $1.24422, with a stop loss at $1.23225 to manage risk effectively. If GBP/USD fails to sustain above the pivot, sellers may take control, driving the pair lower in the short term.

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GBP/USD