Daily Price Outlook
During Friday’s trading session, the price of Gold (XAU/USD) climbed over 0.78%, reclaiming ground above the $3,330 level. The rally comes as investors largely brushed off the recently announced US-UK trade agreement, calling it an "empty shell" with limited economic impact.
This lukewarm deal failed to inspire market confidence, thereby supporting demand for the precious metal amid persistent trade policy uncertainties.
Gold Strengthens as Markets Shrug Off Weak US-UK Trade Deal
Despite claims of progress, the US-UK trade deal fell short of expectations, offering only modest improvements such as faster customs processing and better market access for US exporters.
Notably, 10% tariffs remain intact, and the UK is expected to fulfill $10 billion in Boeing purchases, according to Bloomberg.
This underwhelming agreement cast doubts over Washington’s broader trade strategy, prompting investors to seek the relative safety of gold as a hedge against future economic uncertainty.
Market analysts view the deal as a missed opportunity to form a comprehensive bilateral framework, reinforcing skepticism about upcoming negotiations with China.
Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, noted that "buying gold on dips is still in vogue," suggesting that investor confidence in safe-haven assets remains intact even as some traditional risk-off drivers fade.
XAU/USD Buoyed by Investor Focus on Geneva US-China Tariff Talks
All eyes now turn to Geneva, where crucial US-China tariff talks are set to begin this weekend. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng will lead the discussions, with sources suggesting that the US may reduce tariffs from 145% to below 60% as an initial step—an offer Beijing could potentially match.
Any substantial progress could be followed by the implementation of tariff cuts as early as next week, Bloomberg reported.
Ahead of the talks, US President Donald Trump expressed optimism, stating that negotiations could yield “tangible progress” and even hinted at lowering existing tariffs if discussions proceed smoothly.
Meanwhile, China reiterated its stance that all unilateral tariffs must be rolled back for any serious negotiation to begin. These signals of possible de-escalation in trade tensions are contributing to gold’s appeal, as traders prepare for volatility in the days ahead.
Gold Supported by Policy Uncertainty and Hawkish Signals from Trump
President Trump’s latest comments encouraging Americans to “go out and buy stocks” have added another layer of market unpredictability.
While his remarks suggest confidence in the economic outlook, they also contrast sharply with lingering uncertainties over trade policy and central bank direction.
With safe-haven demand still present, gold remains resilient, especially amid doubts about the Fed’s next moves and potential disruptions from geopolitical developments.
Looking ahead, traders will closely monitor the Geneva summit outcome and its impact on global trade flows.
Until clearer signs of resolution emerge, gold is likely to remain supported near current levels, with the $3,330 threshold serving as a key technical pivot for short-term momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is attempting to recover after finding support at $3,300, aligning with a key ascending trendline that has held since late April. This level coincides with a psychological support zone, providing a potential base for a bullish rebound.
The 50 SMA at $3,355 is acting as immediate resistance, with the next target at $3,352, followed by a more significant barrier at $3,357.
If prices can clear this zone, a move toward $3,385 is possible. However, a break below $3,300 could expose the metal to a deeper decline toward $3,273, aligning with the broader trendline support.
The RSI is currently at 46.68, indicating a neutral stance but with room for further upside if momentum picks up. The recent higher lows pattern suggests building bullish momentum, but the 50 SMA still caps near-term gains.
Notably, the recent candlestick pattern shows a mix of spinning tops and small-bodied candles, reflecting market indecision as traders await a clearer direction.
A break above $3,352 could trigger a push toward $3,385, while a drop below $3,300 risks a retest of $3,273. Traders should watch for a decisive move to confirm the next trend.
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