USD/JPY Price Analysis – May 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Thursday's European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair continued its upward momentum, climbing to the 144.25 level.
However, the surge was largely driven by the dovish stance of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and growing optimism surrounding the potential de-escalation of the US-China trade conflict.
Therefore, the combination of these factors weighed heavily on the Japanese Yen (JPY) and contributed to the gains in the USD/JPY pair.
BoJ's Dovish Outlook Dampens Expectations for Rate Hike
However, the recent BoJ meeting played a key role in the Yen's decline. The BoJ kept its interest rate at 0.5%, as expected, but its cautious outlook reduced hopes for a rate hike soon.
Governor Kazuo Ueda said Japan’s inflation wouldn't hit the 2% target in the short term, delaying any rate increase plans for June or July. This, along with a lowered inflation forecast for fiscal 2026, highlights Japan's struggle to achieve stable inflation, weakening the Yen further.
Ueda also mentioned that Japan's economic outlook is uncertain, mainly due to global trade issues, especially ongoing US tariffs. While Japan’s economy is "roughly on track," changes in US trade policy could have a big impact on Japan’s monetary decisions.
US-China Trade Optimism Adds Pressure to the JPY
Meanwhile, renewed optimism surrounding US-China trade relations also weighed on the Yen. US President Donald Trump’s remarks fueled market sentiment, suggesting the possibility of a trade deal with China, and the broader hope that the US-China trade war could de-escalate.
This positive tone surrounding risk assets undermined the JPY, traditionally a safe-haven currency in times of uncertainty, as investors favored higher-yielding assets.
Trump’s comments about trade deals with countries such as India, South Korea, and Japan, along with the "very good probability" of reaching a deal with China, further bolstered optimism in the markets.
These signals of de-escalation helped support the USD, as investors took a more risk-on approach, leaving the JPY vulnerable to further declines.
US Economic Data and Fed Rate Cut Speculation
On the other hand, the US economic data painted a mixed picture. The latest employment figures from ADP showed a sharp slowdown in private-sector job growth in April, with only 62,000 new jobs added, well below expectations.
Meanwhile, the US GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q1 2025, stoking concerns about a potential US recession. Additionally, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation gauge, edged lower to 2.3% in March, adding to the belief that inflationary pressures are easing.
Despite the somewhat gloomy data, market participants remain focused on the Federal Reserve's dovish outlook.
There is growing speculation that the Fed may resume its rate-cutting cycle in June, with traders pricing in the possibility of a full 100 basis points cut by the end of the year.
Therefore, the prospect of further rate cuts by the Fed weighs on the USD, limiting its strength, but the overall positive risk sentiment and market optimism around US-China trade relations continue to support the USD/JPY pair's bullish trend.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY has broken out aggressively from consolidation and is now trading at 144.38, having breached a critical resistance at 144.03. Price surged from the ascending channel’s lower boundary, confirming the bullish structure, and is now approaching the midline of the rising parallel channel.
A bullish engulfing candle formed at the breakout point, supported by strong volume and follow-through, suggests further upside potential.
The 50-period SMA at 142.976 has begun sloping upward and now aligns with dynamic support. Price is trading firmly above both the 50 SMA and the channel’s median line, signaling trend continuation.
The RSI is currently at 72.82—technically overbought—but historically, during strong uptrends, it tends to hover above 70 for extended periods. No immediate divergence is visible, which further supports the bullish outlook.
Immediate resistance stands at 145.13, with further upside potential toward 146.15 and 147.15 if momentum continues.
On the downside, 144.03 is the key breakout level to watch; any retest that holds could offer a buying opportunity. Further support sits at 143.01, which aligns with the ascending trendline and SMA support.
While RSI suggests some caution, the overall structure—breakout above resistance, channel continuation, and SMA alignment—favors bulls.
A daily close above 145.13 could confirm further gains toward 146.15, completing the next leg of the ascending channel.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – May 01, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – May 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have shown a bearish trend through the first half of the European session, trading around the $3,219 region. However, the global risk sentiment remains bolstered by signs of easing trade tensions between the US and China, the world’s two largest economies. This, coupled with a stronger US Dollar, has pushed traders away from the safe-haven precious metal for the third consecutive day.
US-China Trade Optimism Boosts Risk Appetite and Weighs on Gold
Investor sentiment received a boost following optimistic comments from US President Donald Trump, who indicated a “very good probability” of reaching a trade deal with China. He also mentioned potential trade agreements with other countries such as India, South Korea, and Japan.
These remarks add to the already positive outlook, easing some of the trade-related uncertainties that had previously weighed on markets. As a result, the US dollar saw upward momentum, further pressuring the gold price lower.
Therefore, the ongoing optimism surrounding US-China trade relations and the potential for economic recovery have been key drivers of this risk-on sentiment, which tends to divert flows away from safe-haven assets like gold.
Weak US Economic Data and Easing Inflation Support Gold Despite Bearish Momentum
In addition to the positive trade developments, the weak economic data from the US further supported bearish momentum for gold. On the data front, the US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, following a growth rate of 2.4% in the previous quarter.
Consequently, the disappointing GDP figures reignited concerns over a potential US recession, while a surprise drop in private sector employment, with ADP reporting only 62K job additions in April, further fueled worries.
Moreover, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, showed signs of easing inflation, with the YoY rate slipping to 2.3% in March, down from 2.5% in February. The core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, also softened to 2.6%, reinforcing expectations of a more dovish Fed policy stance.
As a result, the weak economic data has intensified bets that the Federal Reserve will accelerate its rate-cutting cycle in June. Market expectations are now pricing in a 100-basis-point rate cut by the end of 2025.
Thus, the US Dollar may stay strong in the short term due to US-China trade optimism, but Fed rate cut expectations could limit its rise and support gold in the long run.
Geopolitical Tensions and US Economic Data to Impact Gold Prices
On the geopolitical front, the escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine continue to contribute to market uncertainty. Russian drone attacks on Ukraine have resulted in civilian casualties, further fueling global risk aversion.
These factors may limit losses for gold in the short term as investors remain cautious about broader geopolitical risks.
Moving ahead, traders now look forward to key US macroeconomic releases, including the ISM Manufacturing PMI later this Thursday and the Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday.
These releases will play a significant role in shaping the Federal Reserve's policy decisions and could have a big impact on gold prices.
If the data shows that the US economy remains weak, it could increase expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Fed. This would likely limit the strength of the US Dollar and provide some support for gold prices in the weeks ahead, as investors may look to it as a safe haven.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) remains entrenched in a descending wedge pattern, struggling to reclaim resistance above $3,260. The price has sharply declined from April highs, forming a series of lower highs and lower lows, with clear rejection from the $3,314 zone.
Candlestick structure is bearish, including a series of red-bodied candles and a breakdown through $3,261, reinforcing downside bias. The 50 SMA at $3,299 continues to act as dynamic resistance.
The RSI sits near 30.2, teetering on the edge of oversold territory without showing divergence—suggesting sellers remain in control. The presence of a spinning top followed by another bearish candle hints at indecision followed by renewed pressure.
If $3,222 breaks, expect a slide toward $3,188 and $3,153. For bulls to regain momentum, a decisive close above $3,260 and the wedge’s upper trendline is essential. Until then, short positions remain technically favorable.
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GOLD Price Analysis – April 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Wednesday, the price of gold (XAU/USD) dropped more than 1%, trading near $3,274. The decline marks a second consecutive day of profit-taking amid improving global trade sentiment and caution ahead of crucial US economic data releases.
However, the recent pullback in gold prices is largely driven by rising optimism surrounding global trade. US President Donald Trump signed an executive order easing tariffs on car parts, signaling positive progress in trade negotiations, according to Bloomberg.
The move has sparked hopes that further de-escalation in trade tensions could be on the horizon, reducing demand for traditional safe-haven assets like gold.
Gold's Bullish Momentum Eases Ahead of Key US Economic Data and Fed Rate Outlook
Looking ahead, traders are now focusing on the upcoming release of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q1, which is scheduled for 12:30 GMT. Economists expect a slowdown in economic growth, with forecasts suggesting just a 0.4% annualized increase.
This is much lower than the 2.4% growth seen in Q4 2024. The GDP data will be important in shaping the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates.
Alongside the GDP report, the March Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is also due. This is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.
The Core PCE, which excludes food and energy, is expected to drop to 0.1% from 0.4%, and the overall headline PCE is expected to come in at 0%, down from 0.3%.
If these inflation numbers show a cooling trend, it could increase hopes that the Fed may take a softer approach at its May 7 policy meeting.
At the same time, former President Trump has again criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, claiming he understands interest rates better than him. This political tension adds more uncertainty to what the Fed might do next.
Gold’s Long-Term Appeal Remains Supported Despite Short-Term Pullback
Despite the recent decline, long-term demand for gold remains strong. The World Gold Council reports that global investors added around 227 tons of gold to ETFs in Q1, marking the largest inflow since 2022 and driving a 19% rally.
However, with trade tensions easing and US economic data coming into focus, short-term sentiment has shifted to a more cautious outlook.
In India, one of the world's largest gold consumers, jewelry sales dropped in March, and they are expected to decline by up to 11% through the fiscal year ending in March 2026, according to Bloomberg. This adds additional pressure on global physical gold demand.
While gold prices may face short-term pressure due to weak jewelry demand in India and cautious sentiment, strong ETF inflows and long-term demand may support a potential rebound later.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is consolidating just above an ascending trendline support drawn from the April 19 low, while capped below a descending channel top from the $3,410 swing high. The price is coiling inside a symmetrical triangle, suggesting a breakout is likely.
Price is currently below the 50-period EMA ($3,313.50), which is acting as dynamic resistance, while support remains intact near $3,306.94 and the broader $3,273.00 zone.
Recent candles show multiple spinning tops and small-bodied dojis, reflecting indecision at a key technical junction. The absence of momentum suggests traders are awaiting a fundamental catalyst.
However, price action continues to print higher lows, showing underlying bullish intent. A close above $3,313.50 could trigger a bullish continuation toward $3,352.47, and potentially $3,379.07.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering around 45.68, below the midpoint, and diverging slightly from price—a potential sign of fading downside pressure.
No bearish engulfing or three black crows are visible on this timeframe, but the failure to print a clean bullish engulfing or hammer near support also implies hesitancy among buyers.
If gold fails to hold above $3,306.94, it may retest the ascending trendline near $3,273.00. Below that, key horizontal support rests at $3,246.38 and then $3,212.28.
Overall, a break above the triangle and reclaim of the 50 EMA could shift short-term sentiment back to bullish.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its losing streak and stayed around the 1.3352 level.
The reason for this downward movement can be linked to a slight rise in the US Dollar, as traders prepared for key US economic data releases.
Moving ahead, tmarket is awaiting reports on GDP, employment, and inflation, which could offer more insight into the strength of the US economy and influence future currency movements.
The pair had recently reached a three-year high of 1.3445 but is now facing a correction due to the Dollar's strength ahead of these important reports.
US Economic Data Pressures Dollar and Raises Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts
On the data front, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is anticipated to report slower GDP growth of just 0.4% for Q1, a significant slowdown from the previous 2.4%. The sluggish growth reflects the strain from President Trump’s tariffs on US trading partners, which have heightened global economic uncertainty.
Investors are also watching the Q1 Employment Cost Index, ADP Employment Change data for April, and the March PCE Price Index. These reports are expected to show signs of cooling job growth and inflationary pressures.
The ADP report forecasts just 108K new hires in April, below the previous month’s 155K, while core PCE inflation is expected to slow to 2.6%, from February’s 2.8%.
These signs of weakening economic conditions have led markets to speculate on a 65% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June. Therefore, the dovish stance from the Fed would put additional pressure on the US Dollar and benefit GBP/USD in the short term.
BoE Rate Cut Expectations Grow Amid Trade War Fears
Meanwhile, the British Pound has struggled against its peers, except for the Japanese Yen, due to growing concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) could follow the Fed's lead and lower interest rates.
The BoE’s dovish outlook is largely driven by fears over the impact of Trump’s trade war on the UK economy. The imposition of new US tariffs could dampen inflationary pressures and slow UK economic growth, adding to the challenges faced by the BoE.
BoE policymaker Megan Greene noted that the trade war could be “net disinflationary” for the UK, with potential shocks in the job market due to higher social security contributions.
Moreover, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has stressed the risks to economic growth from the ongoing trade conflict, which has led traders to price in a 25 basis point rate cut at the BoE’s May meeting.
Escalating Trade War Fears Put Pressure on GBP
On the other side, the global trade war, particularly the US-China tariff dispute, continues to weigh on market sentiment. The US is pressuring China to ease tensions, while Beijing has vowed to fight back, further escalating the uncertainty.
The Pound has been caught in the crossfire, with rising trade tensions undermining its outlook. Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war has exacerbated market fears, which in turn, have affected the Pound’s performance against the US Dollar.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is climbing within a well-defined ascending channel, currently supported by the lower trendline near $1.3380. Price is hovering just above the 50 SMA ($1.3392), which has recently acted as dynamic support.
A successful bounce here could fuel further upside toward the mid-channel level around $1.3438, aligned with recent price structure.
The candlestick formation shows a clear series of higher lows, reflecting sustained buying interest. After a brief consolidation, bullish momentum may resume if price holds above $1.3380.
The RSI is at 49.71, marginally below neutral but attempting to cross its signal line, suggesting a potential recovery in momentum.
No classic reversal patterns like engulfing or three white soldiers are present, but the structure supports gradual upside.
A break below $1.3358 would invalidate the setup and expose downside risk toward $1.3348 and $1.3315. Until then, bulls remain in control within the channel framework.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair continued to fall and reached close to the 1.1355 level. This decline was mainly due to the renewed strength of the US Dollar, which gained momentum ahead of important US economic data expected later in the North American session.
Investors are being cautious as they wait for key reports like the first-quarter GDP, the ADP Employment Change, and the March PCE Price Index. At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) moved up slightly to around 99.35, showing growing demand for the dollar as markets prepare for these high-impact data releases.
EUR/USD Weighed by Firm USD and Cautious Fed Outlook Ahead of Key US Data
However, the pressure on the EUR/USD pair increased as investors sought the safe-haven US Dollar, expecting slower US economic growth and easing inflation. The US economy is expected to have grown just 0.4% in Q1, a sharp decline from the previous 2.4% growth.
Data on the labor market and inflation is also likely to show less economic momentum, which could affect future decisions by the Federal Reserve. Despite the weaker outlook, the dollar remains strong as markets wait for today’s data to confirm the slowdown.
Rising US-China Trade Tensions Keep Markets on Edge and Support the Greenback
Apart from the economic data, rising geopolitical tensions are also affecting market sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent emphasized a tough stance from the US, stating that it is up to China to ease trade tensions. His comments came after China imposed retaliatory tariffs of 125% on US goods in response to the US's 145% tariffs.
Although China temporarily removed tariffs on some US imports, analysts believe this is more out of necessity than a genuine effort to reduce tensions. This ongoing trade conflict is keeping risk appetite low and supporting the strength of the US Dollar.
EUR/USD Weakens on Eurozone Inflation Concerns and ECB Rate Cut Expectations
On the European front, the Euro also came under pressure due to disappointing inflation data across major Eurozone economies. Preliminary April CPI figures from six German states and France showed slowing price growth, while inflation in Italy and Spain remained stable.
Although French CPI slightly beat estimates at 0.8%, it was still below March’s 0.9%. Therefore, the overall picture of subdued inflation has heightened expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) in its June policy meeting.
Despite the dismal inflation outlook, the Eurozone economy showed some resilience in Q1. Preliminary GDP data released on Wednesday beat expectations, with the region expanding by 0.4% quarter-on-quarter—double the growth seen in the previous quarter.
While this provided some temporary relief for the Euro, concerns around inflation, interest rates, and global trade continue to overshadow the broader economic narrative, keeping the EUR/USD pair under pressure in the near term.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading within a tightening ascending structure, supported by a rising trendline from the April 23 low. The pair recently rebounded from $1.13618, just above the trendline and the proposed entry point at $1.13621, hinting at a potential bullish continuation.
Price remains close to the 50-period SMA ($1.13836), which is currently acting as dynamic resistance. If this level is cleared, the next target is $1.14098, followed by stronger resistance near $1.14248.
Candlestick behavior reveals indecision, with recent spinning tops and small-bodied candles near the support zone.
However, there’s no strong reversal pattern yet—no bullish engulfing or three white soldiers—but the higher lows remain intact, keeping the bullish structure technically alive.
The RSI (14) is printing 46.88, slightly below neutral but curling upward, suggesting early bullish momentum. If RSI crosses above 50 and price clears the SMA, it would further confirm bullish intent.
A failure to hold the trendline near $1.13365 would invalidate this setup, potentially exposing the pair to a drop toward $1.13077.
For now, the setup favors a cautious long with tight risk control, watching the ascending trendline as a key inflection point. A breakout above $1.14098 may open up space for a run toward $1.14508.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure around the 0.6411 level, hitting the intra-day low of 0.6409 level.
However, the reason for its downward trend could be linked to the strength of the US Dollar, which has been supported by easing global trade tensions and shifting market sentiments.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid US-China Trade Optimism, but Uncertainty Persists
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is currently trading around 99.20, reflecting the strength of the US Dollar. This recent rally is largely driven by improved global trade sentiment.
US President Donald Trump has signaled a willingness to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has started exempting certain US products from its steep 125% tariffs.
These developments have fueled optimism that the prolonged trade war between the US and China may be nearing a resolution.
Despite these optimistic remarks, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy firmly denied any ongoing negotiations with the US over tariffs, asserting that the two nations are not in talks. This has left markets uncertain about the future of US-China trade relations, keeping the pressure on the AUD.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Ahead of Australia's Inflation Report and Ongoing US-China Trade Tensions
Another factor that has been putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair is the upcoming inflation report from Australia, set for release on Wednesday.
Traders are closely watching this data, as it could influence expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
There is speculation that the RBA may lower interest rates by 25 basis points in May to mitigate the effects of US tariffs, which would add downward pressure on the Australian Dollar in the short term.
Meanwhile, the ongoing US-China trade conflict continues to create uncertainty. While US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that talks with China are ongoing, no deal has been reached yet.
The US is also working to ease the impact of automotive tariffs, but these efforts have not stopped the growing trade tensions.
If the situation escalates further, the US Dollar could also face pressure, especially if China retaliates with tariffs or other measures. Traders will keep a close eye on these developments, as they could influence both currencies.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD continues to consolidate within a well-defined horizontal channel, supported by an ascending trendline that’s held since April 24.
Price recently bounced off the $0.6400 handle and is now hovering above the key intraday pivot at $0.64151 — the proposed entry level. Buyers will need a firm break and close above $0.64350 to target the next resistance at $0.64501, followed by $0.64691.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $0.64020 (50 SMA), with $0.63955 and $0.63707 acting as deeper structural floors. Candlestick action near support shows a bullish rejection wick followed by a minor engulfing candle, signaling a shift in short-term momentum back to the upside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58.79, staying comfortably above midline without being overbought. No bearish divergence is present, suggesting momentum could favor a continuation move higher.
Price structure also shows higher lows since April 23, aligning with the ascending trendline — a classic early bull trend formation.
There’s a minor supply zone between $0.64300 and $0.64450, and price has tested it twice, forming short wicks to the upside — watch for a clean breakout here before scaling in aggressively. The 50 SMA at $0.64020 is now sloping upward, adding confluence to the bullish thesis.
If buyers hold above $0.64151, this structure suggests another attempt toward $0.64501 is likely — but patience is key as resistance remains sticky.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 29, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) is trading around the $3,312 level and has faced some challenges in recent trading sessions, with the precious metal struggling to maintain its ground amid growing optimism surrounding US-China trade talks and a strengthening US Dollar.
Despite a slight recovery from the $3,300 mark, Gold remains under pressure, primarily driven by the improving sentiment in global markets and expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy stance.
Gold Price Struggles as US-China Trade Tensions Ease and USD Strengthens
However, the recent bearish bias can be attributed to the easing of trade tensions between the US and China, which has shifted investor sentiment away from safe-haven assets.
China's recent decision to exempt certain US goods from retaliatory tariffs has sparked hope for de-escalation in the trade war between the two largest economies in the world.
This move has contributed to a more positive market mood, with investors growing hopeful that the ongoing tariff disputes may be resolved in the near future.
Moreover, US President Donald Trump’s changing stance on trade policies has created uncertainty, but his comments suggesting the possibility of negotiations with global trade partners have bolstered market optimism. Despite some ambiguity about the specifics of the trade talks, the overall sentiment remains more upbeat, undermining demand for the safe-haven Gold price.
At the same time, the US dollar has regained strength, driven by increased buying interest in the greenback. The dollar's strength has been another hurdle for Gold, as the inverse correlation between the two assets often leads to pressure on Gold when the USD rises.
However, the optimism surrounding US-China trade talks has contributed to the USD's rebound, further diminishing Gold’s appeal.
Fed Policy Outlook and Geopolitical Risks Provide Support to Gold
On the other hand, the possibility of more aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) could provide some support to Gold. Market expectations for rate cuts have intensified, with traders anticipating at least three rate cuts by the end of the year.
Moreover, Gold traders are awaiting key US macroeconomic data releases, including the Fed's preferred inflation gauge and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could influence the central bank’s future policy decisions.
These reports may provide fresh insight into the Fed's direction, reinforcing Gold's position if the data supports a dovish stance from the Fed.
In addition to US economic factors, the geopolitical risks continue to loom large, keeping market participants on edge.
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, with Russian President Vladimir Putin declaring a 72-hour unilateral ceasefire, adds a layer of uncertainty.
However, Ukraine’s rejection of the ceasefire and North Korea's involvement in the war keeps the geopolitical risk premium intact.
These developments maintain a level of support for Gold, as investors hedge against potential global instability.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold remains in a broad consolidation phase but is showing early signs of bullish intent. After bouncing near $3,307 support, the price now trades above the 50 SMA ($3,306.41), with $3,319 acting as a key intraday pivot.
The recovery is supported by a series of higher lows and a short-term ascending trendline drawn from the April 23 low near $3,272. This structure reinforces the bullish bias unless $3,273 is breached.
Candlestick analysis reveals a recent bullish engulfing candle followed by a small-bodied Doji near support, suggesting indecision fading in favor of buyers.
Momentum picked up again after this pattern, as the RSI turned higher from midline (now at 55.86), hinting at renewed strength without yet being overbought.
The $3,352 area has acted as a strong intraday resistance, rejecting advances twice. A clear breakout above this level would expose the $3,371 zone, which coincides with the top of a horizontal price channel that’s defined the trading range since mid-April.
Beyond that, $3,387 stands as the next upside target. On the downside, $3,306 remains the first technical floor, followed by $3,273 and $3,246.
The 50 SMA crossover above the price earlier last week suggested short-term bearishness, but the current recovery above that level negates the prior signal.
No bearish divergence is visible on the RSI, and volume has slightly increased on green candles, giving additional weight to bullish momentum.
If gold breaks and sustains above $3,352, the three white soldiers pattern from last week could extend, signaling trend continuation.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD pair reversed intraday losses and rose to around the 1.3849 level. The pair gained traction as political uncertainty in Canada weighed on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) following the country’s recent federal election.
However, the Canadian Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, managed to retain power but fell short of securing a parliamentary majority, sparking concerns over political gridlock and weakened trade negotiation power with the United States.
According to early results, the Liberals were ahead in 167 seats—just 5 short of the 172 needed for a majority in Canada’s 343-seat House of Commons.
The Conservative Party was in second place with 145 seats. This unclear outcome caused pressure on the Canadian dollar (CAD), as investors worried about political uncertainty and future trade deals.
USD/CAD Supported by Renewed US-China Trade Optimism
Adding to the bullish momentum of USD/CAD was the positive sentiment surrounding US-China trade relations. The US Dollar drew strength after President Trump signaled a possible rollback of tariffs on Chinese imports.
Meanwhile, Beijing responded by announcing exemptions on select US goods, reviving hopes of a resolution to the long-standing trade conflict between the two largest economies.
Trump further reassured markets by confirming active communication with Chinese President Xi Jinping and ongoing progress in negotiations.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the US administration is considering lowering overlapping duties on automobiles and reducing tariffs on imported car parts—moves that suggest a broader shift towards easing trade barriers.
This renewed optimism around US-China ties boosted demand for the greenback, as easing trade tensions typically support global risk sentiment and strengthen the US Dollar’s appeal.
Canadian Political Instability and US Trade Signals Strengthen USD/CAD Outlook
Therefore, the combination of Canadian domestic uncertainty and growing confidence in global trade talks has tilted sentiment in favor of the USD/CAD pair.
Market participants remain cautious about the implications of Canada’s minority government, particularly its limited influence in key policy areas like trade, economic recovery, and foreign investment.
At the same time, US economic diplomacy is gaining traction, with President Trump actively pursuing measures to reduce trade frictions.
These developments reinforce bullish pressure on the USD, especially as markets shift focus to more stable and proactive economic leadership.
Going forward, traders will likely keep a close eye on Canada’s political negotiations and further US-China trade announcements, both of which could significantly influence the direction of the USD/CAD pair in the near term.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is coiling within a symmetrical triangle pattern, showing reduced volatility as price action compresses between converging trendlines.
The pair is currently trading just below the $1.38452 pivot, with downside momentum building after a clear rejection at the triangle’s upper boundary near $1.38921.
A break below $1.38452 activates a short setup targeting $1.37828, with a stop placed above the triangle’s top near $1.38792.
Structure-wise, the pair has formed a series of lower highs since April 15, while support around $1.37973 and $1.37621 continues to attract bids — setting the stage for a breakout resolution.
The 50 SMA at $1.38592 is trending flat, reflecting consolidation rather than directional bias. However, current price action below this level, along with the recent engulfing candle, suggests bearish momentum may be brewing.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 40.45, pointing downward and nearing oversold territory — but not yet offering divergence or reversal signals.
Should price push below the triangle's ascending trendline near $1.37973, it would likely open the door to deeper losses toward $1.37621 and potentially $1.37226. On the flip side, if bulls defend $1.38200 and reclaim $1.38592, we could see another test of $1.38921 and beyond.
Until a clean break occurs, traders should expect choppy price action within the triangle. The bias slightly favors bears as long as price remains below $1.38452.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair extended its upward momentum, reaching near 1.3350.
The rally continued as the US Dollar (USD) traded cautiously amidst ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks and the anticipation of crucial US economic data later in the week.
Market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach, awaiting clearer signals from the US-China discussions, with no definitive signs of active talks between the two leaders.
US Dollar’s Caution amid Trade Deal Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained subdued as investors awaited more clarity on the status of US-China trade talks. On Monday, China denied reports that President Xi Jinping had spoken directly with US President Donald Trump about trade terms.
This denial came after Trump suggested that Xi had reached out to him, but he didn't provide any clear details about their conversation. As a result, investors are hesitant to make big moves, waiting for more updates on whether a trade deal is possible.
In addition to the trade-related uncertainty, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against six major currencies, hovered around the 99.50 level. This cautious tone in the USD kept the Pound supported, as traders refrained from making bold moves until clearer economic signals emerged.
Focus on US Economic Data and Fed Policy Outlook
Investors are also awaiting a slew of economic data from the US this week, with attention focused on employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and inflation reports. These releases are crucial for shaping market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants widely anticipate that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in its upcoming meeting on May 6-7, with the current rate range of 4.25%-4.50% expected to remain unchanged.
However, Fed officials have suggested that any future policy changes will depend on clearer signals about the state of the economy.
Pound Outperforms Despite Dovish UK Economic Outlook and Rate Cut Expectations
Despite a generally dovish outlook for the UK economy, the Pound outperformed its peers early in the week.
Market participants continue to price in expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% in its policy meeting on May 8.
These dovish bets were driven by concerns over the potential negative impact of US tariffs on the UK economy and subsiding inflation pressures in the UK.
Moreover, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has acknowledged that global trade tensions, especially the US-China trade dispute, could hurt UK growth, but he has ruled out the chance of a recession soon.
BoE policymaker Megan Greene also raised concerns about weak productivity and risks to the UK labor market, as employers face higher social security costs.
These factors, along with expectations of a potential rate cut, have helped keep the Pound strong against the Dollar.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is displaying early signs of bullish momentum after breaking above a key symmetrical triangle pattern.
The entry trigger near $1.3306 aligns with the breakout of a consolidation structure, suggesting a measured move toward the $1.3348 resistance zone. A bullish breakout from the triangle is often indicative of renewed trend continuation.
Technically, the 50-period EMA, currently at $1.3307, is flattening and attempting to turn higher, providing dynamic support beneath current prices.
The RSI reading at 54.10, edging above the 50 midline, confirms a strengthening bias without approaching overbought levels, leaving room for further upside.
Candle structures around the breakout reveal a mild bullish engulfing pattern followed by a spinning top, reflecting healthy consolidation post-breakout without signs of exhaustion.
No bearish divergence is detected on the RSI, reinforcing the likelihood of continued gains if immediate resistance is breached.
A move above $1.3348 could trigger additional buying, possibly exposing $1.3385 next. Conversely, failure to sustain above the breakout could see a pullback toward $1.3277, which remains key short-term support.
Pattern traders will note the “ABCD harmonic pattern” formation within the broader triangle structure, reinforcing the measured move thesis toward higher resistance levels.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During early European trading hours on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a modest dip, trading near the 1.1350 level.
The pair's decline was primarily driven by the underperformance of the Euro (EUR), as investors await critical economic data from the Eurozone this week, including the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April and the Q1 GDP figures.
Therefore, the results of these reports are expected to significantly influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook.
EUR/USD Weakness Fueled by Eurozone Economic Data Expectations
On the EUR front, the shared currency has weakened due to expectations around upcoming economic data from the Eurozone.
Analysts predict that the Eurozone's headline HICP inflation will return to the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, marking the slowest price growth since October 2024. This follows a 2.2% increase in March.
Moreover, GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter for the first quarter of the year.
While moderate inflation and steady growth could suggest a more dovish stance from the ECB, traders are closely watching these figures, as they may increase expectations for an ECB rate cut in June.
In fact, some ECB policymakers are already expressing growing confidence in reducing rates as inflation eases.
However, there is still caution because of risks from global trade tensions, especially between the US and the Eurozone.
ECB policymaker Klaas Knot mentioned that while inflation is expected to decrease, the situation is complicated. US trade tariffs could reduce demand and cause prices to rise more slowly.
Impact of US Dollar Strength on GBP/USD Amid Economic Data and Trade Uncertainty
On the other hand, the US Dollar has managed to hold its ground amid mixed developments in global trade relations.
Despite mixed messages from Washington and Beijing, the Dollar remains strong because of overall market confidence. Investors are cautious, but the Dollar still gets support from the broader market outlook.
Moving ahead, the upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for later this week, is expected to be a major catalyst for the US Dollar.
Traders are closely watching the labor market figures, which could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy moves. Despite the uncertainty in global trade relations, the US economy remains relatively resilient, further supporting the USD’s strength.
Therefore, the US Dollar's strength, supported by positive economic data and market confidence, could pressure the GBP/USD pair, potentially pushing the Pound lower as traders adjust to stronger USD expectations.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is attempting a recovery after defending support at $1.1331. Prices are now pushing against the $1.1362 pivot zone, aided by a modest bullish crossover where the price reclaims the 50-EMA ($1.1362).
A clean hourly close above this level opens the path toward $1.1406, with bulls eyeing the higher range.
Candlestick behavior reveals a series of small-bodied candles followed by a bullish engulfing pattern near the pivot, suggesting strengthening momentum.
The RSI reading at 55.98, slightly above the neutral 50 level, indicates a growing bullish bias without being overbought, offering room for further upside.
There is no visible bearish divergence at this stage, reinforcing the upward momentum. Higher lows from the $1.1316 region further validate the emerging bullish structure.
However, $1.1406 remains a key resistance that needs a decisive break for continuation; failure here could trigger profit-taking.
In a broader context, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle, typically a bullish formation, and a break above the horizontal barrier could spark a measured move towards $1.1442.
Traders should monitor for three white soldiers formation or successive bullish candles confirming the breakout strength.
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