USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD remains bullish above $1.42750, eyeing resistance at $1.43803 and $1.44394.
- Break above the 50-day EMA at $1.43988 could confirm further upside potential.
- Support at $1.42193 remains key—failure to hold could trigger a deeper pullback.
USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.43342, marking a slight 0.01% gain, as the pair navigates a critical price zone. The currency pair remains under bullish pressure, reflecting strength in the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar, amid fluctuating commodity prices and macroeconomic data.
From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD is positioned above its pivot point at $1.42750, indicating the potential for further upside. If buyers maintain control, the pair could test immediate resistance at $1.43803. A breakout above this level could open the door toward $1.44394, with an extended rally targeting $1.45029, a level that has previously acted as a significant supply zone.
Conversely, key support levels are situated at $1.42193, followed by $1.41602. A drop below these levels could shift momentum in favor of sellers, with a potential move toward $1.40984, where buyers are likely to step in.
Moving averages suggest a mixed outlook. The 50-day EMA at $1.43988 remains above the current price, indicating short-term resistance. A sustained break above this level would reinforce bullish sentiment, while rejection at this zone could trigger a pullback.
Traders should monitor USD/CAD’s reaction near $1.43803. A strong close above this level could confirm further upside, while a failure to breach resistance may lead to consolidation or retracement toward lower support.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.42743
Take Profit – 1.43802
Stop Loss – 1.42176
Risk to Reward – 1:1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1059/ -$567
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$105/ -$56
USD/CAD Price Analysis – Feb 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Tuesday, the USD/CAD currency pair continued to rise and reaching around 1.4340. The increase came after US President Donald Trump announced a sharp hike in tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to a flat 25% on Monday.
This move is meant to protect struggling US industries but has also raised concerns about a possible trade war, adding pressure to global markets.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the value of the US dollar against major currencies, extended its gains for the fourth consecutive session, reaching around 108.50. The stronger dollar is putting pressure on the Canadian dollar, making USD/CAD move higher.
Moreover, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is now expected to keep interest rates steady throughout the year. This expectation follows the latest jobs report released on Friday, which showed slowing job growth but a lower unemployment rate.
Thus, the stable Fed policy is providing further support to the US dollar, keeping USD/CAD in an uptrend. Traders will watch for further developments in trade policies and economic data for the next move in the pair.
Canada Faces Pressure as US Imposes Higher Tariffs on Steel and Aluminum
On the CAD front, the currency weakened due to rising trade tensions after US President Donald Trump increased tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to a flat 25% on Monday. This decision removes all exemptions, including special deals and exclusions for certain products.
The new tariffs will take effect on March 12, and further restrictions on microchips and vehicles may follow. The move is meant to protect US industries but has raised concerns about a potential trade war, putting pressure on the Canadian Dollar.
Canada is the biggest supplier of aluminum to the US, providing nearly 80% of its imports in 2024. In 2023, steel imports made up about 23% of US steel consumption, with Canada, Brazil, and Mexico being the top suppliers.
The increased tariffs could negatively impact Canada’s exports, reducing demand for the CAD and pushing the USD/CAD pair higher. Traders are watching closely to see how Canada responds.
Canada’s Industry Minister, Francois-Philippe Champagne, criticized the tariffs as “totally unjustified.” He highlighted that Canadian steel and aluminum are essential for key US industries like defense, shipbuilding, energy, and automotive manufacturing.
He also stated that Canada is consulting with international partners and will respond in a “clear and calibrated” manner. (edited)
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is currently trading at $1.43342, marking a slight 0.01% gain, as the pair navigates a critical price zone. The currency pair remains under bullish pressure, reflecting strength in the U.S. dollar against the Canadian dollar, amid fluctuating commodity prices and macroeconomic data.
From a technical standpoint, USD/CAD is positioned above its pivot point at $1.42750, indicating the potential for further upside. If buyers maintain control, the pair could test immediate resistance at $1.43803. A breakout above this level could open the door toward $1.44394, with an extended rally targeting $1.45029, a level that has previously acted as a significant supply zone.
Conversely, key support levels are situated at $1.42193, followed by $1.41602. A drop below these levels could shift momentum in favor of sellers, with a potential move toward $1.40984, where buyers are likely to step in.
Moving averages suggest a mixed outlook. The 50-day EMA at $1.43988 remains above the current price, indicating short-term resistance. A sustained break above this level would reinforce bullish sentiment, while rejection at this zone could trigger a pullback.
Traders should monitor USD/CAD’s reaction near $1.43803. A strong close above this level could confirm further upside, while a failure to breach resistance may lead to consolidation or retracement toward lower support.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Bias Above $1.44525: Sustained trading above this pivot supports upside potential toward $1.45906.
- Immediate Resistance at $1.45254: A breakout could drive gains toward the next resistance at $1.46681.
- 50-EMA at $1.44369: Acts as strong dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish trend.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.44852, up 0.38%, reflecting a continuation of bullish momentum. The pair is comfortably holding above the key pivot point at $1.44525, signaling sustained buying interest.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $1.45254, with a break above this level potentially accelerating gains toward $1.45906 and $1.46681, the latter marking a significant barrier for bullish extension.
On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.43820, followed by $1.43175 and $1.42623. A drop below these levels could trigger corrective pullbacks; however, the broader bias remains bullish as long as the pair sustains above the pivot.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.44369 underpins the bullish outlook, acting as dynamic support.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral-to-bullish territory, suggesting further room for upside before reaching overbought conditions.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.44533
Take Profit – 1.45684
Stop Loss – 1.43827
Risk to Reward – 1:1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1151/ -$706
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$115/ -$70
USD/CAD Price Analysis – Feb 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair has failed to stop its downward trend and is still under pressure, trading around 1.4387.
The main reason for this losing streak is the strength of the Canadian Dollar (CAD). The Loonie has gained almost 2.6% from its high of 1.4800 on Monday, partly because US President Donald Trump decided to delay his plan to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico. This move helped boost the CAD, making the USD weaker in comparison.
Moreover, investors are now expecting the Bank of Canada (BoC) to cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75% in its upcoming meeting in March. The possibility of this rate cut is another factor that has weighed on the Canadian Dollar, although it’s still holding strong.
On the other hand, the US Dollar (USD) has been struggling due to Trump’s decision to delay tariffs, which has reduced the Greenback's appeal as a safe-haven currency.
As a result, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the strength of the USD against six major currencies, is struggling to hold above 108.40, which was its low point from Monday.
US Dollar Weakens as Trump Delays Tariff Plans, Boosting Canadian Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar (USD) has weakened after President Trump decided to delay his tariff plans on Canada and Mexico for 30 days.
This decision followed an agreement with his North American counterparts to tighten border restrictions aimed at preventing illegal immigration and the flow of fentanyl into the US. As a result, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has become more attractive, strengthening sharply.
This move also suggests that Trump is using tariffs as a negotiating tool to secure better trade deals, giving the CAD a short-term boost. However, the Canadian Dollar's long-term outlook remains uncertain, as concerns grow that inflation in Canada may fall below the Bank of Canada's (BoC) 2% target.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar's safe-haven appeal has declined, pushing the US Dollar Index (DXY) lower. The DXY, which tracks the value of the USD against six major currencies, is struggling to recover from Monday’s low of 108.40.
Investors are now looking ahead to the US JOLTS Job Openings data for December, set to be released at 15:00 GMT. Economists predict that around 8 million new jobs were posted, slightly fewer than the 8.10 million in November.
This data could provide further insight into the US labor market and the USD's movement against the Canadian Dollar.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.44852, up 0.38%, reflecting a continuation of bullish momentum. The pair is comfortably holding above the key pivot point at $1.44525, signaling sustained buying interest.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $1.45254, with a break above this level potentially accelerating gains toward $1.45906 and $1.46681, the latter marking a significant barrier for bullish extension.
On the downside, immediate support is identified at $1.43820, followed by $1.43175 and $1.42623. A drop below these levels could trigger corrective pullbacks; however, the broader bias remains bullish as long as the pair sustains above the pivot.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.44369 underpins the bullish outlook, acting as dynamic support.
Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains in neutral-to-bullish territory, suggesting further room for upside before reaching overbought conditions.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Momentum: USD/CAD holds above the $1.44158 pivot, eyeing $1.44576 and $1.45185 for extended gains.
- Critical Support Levels: A drop below $1.43340 may invite further selling toward $1.42694.
- Trade Setup: Suggested entry at $1.44266, targeting $1.44846, with a stop loss at $1.43855 for risk management.
USD/CAD is trading at $1.43954, up 0.15%, as the pair maintains a bullish bias supported by positive momentum. The pivot point at $1.44158 acts as a critical threshold, with a break above this level paving the way for further gains.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $1.44576, followed by key levels at $1.45185 and $1.45757, suggesting strong upward potential if the pair clears these barriers.
On the downside, support is seen at $1.43340, with additional buffers at $1.42694 and $1.42101, which could come into play if selling pressure intensifies.
The pair is trading above the 50-EMA at $1.43679, which reinforces the short-term bullish outlook. However, any failure to sustain gains above the pivot may lead to consolidation or correction.
The trade setup suggests a Buy Stop at $1.44266, targeting $1.44846, with a stop loss at $1.43855 to mitigate downside risk.
Traders should monitor developments in oil prices, a key driver for the Canadian dollar, and upcoming economic data for directional cues.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Stop 1.44266
Take Profit – 1.44846
Stop Loss – 1.43855
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$580/ -$411
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$58/ -$41
USD/CAD Price Analysis – Jan 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair maintained its upward trend, staying well-supported around the 1.4410 level and reaching an intraday high of 1.4416. The key driver behind this bullish movement is the US Dollar's recovery from its lowest point since December 18.
The US Dollar found strength due to renewed concerns over inflation, sparked by fears that former President Donald Trump's protectionist policies could reignite inflationary pressures. These worries have led to an increase in US Treasury bond yields, further boosting demand for the US Dollar.
Despite the positive momentum, the USD/CAD pair remains within a familiar trading range that has been in place for about a month.
Traders are cautious ahead of key central bank events later this week, which are likely to influence market sentiment and drive further price movements. As a result, investors are waiting on the sidelines for clearer signals from upcoming central bank decisions.
Impact of Central Bank Policy Divergence and Crude Oil Price Recovery on USD/CAD Pair
On the BoC front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is set to announce its policy decision on Wednesday, with expectations pointing to a 25 basis point interest rate cut.
This move contrasts with the broader market view that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates steady after their two-day meeting on the same day.
This difference in monetary policy is seen as a major factor supporting the USD/CAD pair, as traders expect the US Dollar to benefit from a more hawkish stance compared to the BoC's dovish approach.
However, a slight recovery in Crude Oil prices, which had dropped to a near three-week low on Monday, is helping to limit losses for the Canadian Dollar (Loonie), a currency often influenced by oil price movements. This recovery in oil prices is capping the upside potential for the USD/CAD pair.
Traders are now focusing on the US economic data, including Durable Goods Orders, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, hoping for fresh direction as they anticipate these reports later in the US session. These factors will likely influence the pair's movement going forward.
Therefore, the Bank of Canada's expected interest rate cut, along with the US Federal Reserve's steady stance, supports the USD/CAD pair by strengthening the US Dollar. However, the recovery in Crude Oil prices helps limit the upside potential for the pair.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading at $1.43954, up 0.15%, as the pair maintains a bullish bias supported by positive momentum. The pivot point at $1.44158 acts as a critical threshold, with a break above this level paving the way for further gains.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $1.44576, followed by key levels at $1.45185 and $1.45757, suggesting strong upward potential if the pair clears these barriers.
On the downside, support is seen at $1.43340, with additional buffers at $1.42694 and $1.42101, which could come into play if selling pressure intensifies.
The pair is trading above the 50-EMA at $1.43679, which reinforces the short-term bullish outlook. However, any failure to sustain gains above the pivot may lead to consolidation or correction.
The trade setup suggests a Buy Stop at $1.44266, targeting $1.44846, with a stop loss at $1.43855 to mitigate downside risk.
Traders should monitor developments in oil prices, a key driver for the Canadian dollar, and upcoming economic data for directional cues.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD remains bullish above the pivot point at $1.43655, with resistance at $1.44415 in focus.
- The 50-day EMA at $1.43919 supports the uptrend, offering a critical level for bulls.
- A break below $1.42799 could trigger a corrective move, challenging the bullish sentiment.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.44199, up 0.80%, reflecting strong bullish momentum as the U.S. dollar continues to gain ground against the Canadian dollar.
The pair has successfully breached the pivot point at $1.43655, indicating potential for further upside. Immediate resistance is observed at $1.44415, with the next hurdles at $1.45185 and $1.45861, which could limit further gains if buying momentum weakens.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.42799, followed by deeper levels at $1.42108 and $1.41342, which could provide stability in the event of a pullback.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43919 is currently acting as dynamic support, reinforcing the bullish bias as long as prices remain above this key level.
From a technical perspective, the pair's break above the pivot and sustained movement above the 50-day EMA suggests a continuation of the uptrend. Traders are closely monitoring key resistance levels to assess the strength of the rally.
A break above $1.44415 could accelerate bullish momentum, targeting the higher resistance zones. Conversely, a drop below the pivot may shift sentiment, prompting a potential retracement toward the immediate support at $1.42799.
In conclusion, a buying opportunity emerges above $1.43655, targeting $1.44788, with a stop-loss set at $1.42811 to manage downside risks. The overall outlook remains bullish, contingent on the pair maintaining strength above the pivot level.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.43655
Take Profit – 1.44788
Stop Loss – 1.42811
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1133/ -$844
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$113/ -$84
USD/CAD Price Analysis – Jan 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair has sustained its upward trend, trading around 1.4424 and reaching an intraday high of 1.4518. This bullish momentum is largely due to market reactions to recent policy developments.
The Canadian dollar faced selling pressure after US President Donald Trump hinted at imposing 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, potentially starting in February. This announcement has fueled fears of economic challenges for Canada, weakening the CAD.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar recovered modestly from its recent two-week low. Traders expect Trump's protectionist policies to drive inflation higher, which could prompt the Federal Reserve (Fed) to maintain its hawkish stance on interest rates. This outlook has supported the USD and pushed the USD/CAD pair higher.
Despite the rally, further gains in the pair are capped by mixed sentiment, with traders weighing the potential economic impacts of tariffs and inflation concerns.
USD/CAD Rises Amid Tariff Concerns and Inflation Data Anticipation
On the CAD front, the Canadian Dollar has come under pressure due to concerns over US President Donald Trump’s plan to impose 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico by early February.
This announcement has raised fears of economic strain, weakening the CAD against the USD. However, a slight recovery in crude oil prices has supported the commodity-linked Loonie, preventing further declines in the USD/CAD pair.
Traders are also cautious ahead of Canada’s latest inflation report, scheduled for release today. Statistics Canada is expected to report a 1.8% increase in December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) compared to the previous year.
Core inflation data, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, will also be published by the Bank of Canada (BoC).
While November’s core CPI showed a slight 0.1% monthly contraction, it rose by 1.6% on an annual basis.
These numbers are crucial as they will influence the BoC’s monetary policy decisions, especially after it recently cut interest rates by 175 basis points since June 2024, with the current rate standing at 3.25%.
USD/CAD Fluctuates as Trump’s Tariffs and Inflation Expectations Influence Market Sentiment
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar (USD) is seeing a modest recovery after dropping to a two-week low. This decline was driven by concerns that President Trump's protectionist policies, like imposing tariffs, could push up inflation.
As a result, investors believe the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high, which in turn boosts the USD against the Canadian Dollar (CAD), pushing the USD/CAD pair above the 1.4500 mark. However, several factors are limiting any further gains for the USD.
Investors are also betting that the Fed will reduce interest rates twice by the end of the year. This expectation is based on signs that inflation in the US is slowing down.
As a result, US Treasury bond yields have fallen sharply, which has put some pressure on the USD. Additionally, positive sentiment in the stock markets is making investors less focused on the dollar as a safe-haven asset, further limiting its strength.
Meanwhile, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is being supported by rising crude oil prices. As a commodity-linked currency, the CAD benefits from oil price gains, which helps keep the USD/CAD pair from rising further.
Traders are also cautious and waiting for Canada's upcoming inflation data, which will play a key role in deciding the future direction of the CAD.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Bias Above $1.43442: Sustained trading above the pivot confirms upside potential.
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $1.44631, with further barriers at $1.45272 and $1.45861.
- Support Levels: Key support at $1.42799, with lower levels at $1.42108 and $1.41342 providing downside protection.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.43825, up 0.03%, as the U.S. Dollar holds steady against the Canadian Dollar. The price hovers just above the pivot point at $1.43442, maintaining a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance is observed at $1.44631, followed by stronger hurdles at $1.45272 and $1.45861. On the downside, support lies at $1.42799, with additional levels at $1.42108 and $1.41342, marking critical thresholds for a potential retracement.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43861 provides dynamic resistance, reinforcing the importance of sustained momentum above the pivot point.
A successful break above $1.43442 could set the stage for further gains, targeting the immediate resistance zone at $1.44631. Conversely, a failure to hold above the pivot could lead to selling pressure, testing the $1.42799 support level.
The RSI indicates neutral to bullish momentum, suggesting a balanced market outlook but with an upside bias. Traders should keep an eye on U.S. and Canadian economic data, including oil prices, which heavily influence the Canadian Dollar’s movement.
The overall sentiment remains bullish, but a decisive move above $1.43861 is crucial for validating further gains.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.43435
Take Profit – 1.44641
Stop Loss – 1.43001
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1206/ -$434
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$120/ -$43
USD/CAD Price Analysis – Jan 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is trading weakly around 1.4380 during Tuesday’s early European session, pressured by Canadian Dollar (CAD) strength and shifting market sentiment.
Following stronger-than-expected Canadian labor market data for December, traders have adjusted their outlook on the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) rate cut trajectory.
Simultaneously, rising crude oil prices have bolstered the CAD, further weighing on the pair. With the US Producer Price Index (PPI) for December scheduled for release later on Tuesday, market participants await additional cues on the US Dollar (USD) outlook, which could influence the pair’s trajectory.
US Dollar Supported by Strong Economic Data and Hawkish Fed Outlook
On the US front, robust economic data is supporting a hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) stance, limiting the USD’s downside.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ December Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report showed an increase of 256,000 jobs, the highest since March, alongside a decline in the Unemployment Rate to 4.1%.
These figures reinforce expectations that the Fed will maintain higher interest rates through much of 2025.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, markets are currently discounting the likelihood of a 25 basis points rate cut at the January 28-29 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, with a probability of just 2.7%.
The USD’s resilience, driven by these factors, prevents a steeper decline in the USD/CAD pair, even as external pressures weigh on the Greenback’s performance.
Canadian Dollar Gains Support from Strong Domestic Data and Rising Oil Prices
The Canadian Dollar finds support from robust domestic data and favorable oil market conditions. Canada’s December labor market report revealed unexpected strength, with higher job creation reducing the likelihood of a BoC interest rate cut in January.
Reuters data indicates that expectations for a January 29 rate cut have dropped to 61%, down from 70% before the labor report’s release.
Moreover, crude oil prices have surged amid expanded US sanctions on Russian oil, providing a further boost to the CAD. As Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US, higher oil prices directly enhance the CAD’s appeal, creating downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
This oil-driven momentum underscores the Loonie’s sensitivity to commodity market dynamics, which will likely remain a key driver of the pair in the near term.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.43825, up 0.03%, as the U.S. Dollar holds steady against the Canadian Dollar. The price hovers just above the pivot point at $1.43442, maintaining a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance is observed at $1.44631, followed by stronger hurdles at $1.45272 and $1.45861. On the downside, support lies at $1.42799, with additional levels at $1.42108 and $1.41342, marking critical thresholds for a potential retracement.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43861 provides dynamic resistance, reinforcing the importance of sustained momentum above the pivot point.
A successful break above $1.43442 could set the stage for further gains, targeting the immediate resistance zone at $1.44631. Conversely, a failure to hold above the pivot could lead to selling pressure, testing the $1.42799 support level.
The RSI indicates neutral to bullish momentum, suggesting a balanced market outlook but with an upside bias. Traders should keep an eye on U.S. and Canadian economic data, including oil prices, which heavily influence the Canadian Dollar’s movement.
The overall sentiment remains bullish, but a decisive move above $1.43861 is crucial for validating further gains.
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