USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Price rejected descending trendline and 50 EMA zone
- RSI neutral at 49.99 with bearish crossover
- Shooting star and indecision candles flag reversal risk
USD/CAD is trading near $1.38227 after rejecting the descending trendline that has capped price action since April. The pair tested the trendline around $1.38393, posting a near-term rejection candle—a classic shooting star—followed by lower-volume indecision candlesticks (doji and spinning tops), signaling fading bullish momentum.
Price remains beneath the downward-sloping trendline and is also hovering around the 50-period EMA at $1.38177, which has flattened, reflecting a neutral to mildly bearish bias.
Sellers appear to be defending the $1.38481–$1.38393 supply zone, making it a critical short-term resistance area. Below current levels, the first major support lies at $1.37945, with further downside potential toward $1.37893 and $1.37767.
The RSI stands at 49.99, below the 50 neutral line, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but lacking bullish conviction. No clear divergence is visible at the moment, though a bearish RSI crossover confirms weakening upward momentum.
Structurally, the pair has been carving out lower highs beneath the trendline and is at risk of resuming the broader bearish channel unless bulls retake $1.38626.
No reversal candle patterns such as three white soldiers or bullish engulfing are present, indicating the recent bounce may be corrective. The setup now favors short entries if the pair breaks below $1.38254 with follow-through, targeting $1.37893, while risk is managed above $1.38481.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.38254
Take Profit – 1.37893
Stop Loss – 1.38481
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.59
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$361/ -$227
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$36/ -$22
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish engulfing candle near triangle top suggests seller strength.
- RSI at 40.45 confirms downside pressure without reversal signals.
- Break below $1.38452 may lead to sharp drop toward $1.37828.
USD/CAD is coiling within a symmetrical triangle pattern, showing reduced volatility as price action compresses between converging trendlines.
The pair is currently trading just below the $1.38452 pivot, with downside momentum building after a clear rejection at the triangle’s upper boundary near $1.38921.
A break below $1.38452 activates a short setup targeting $1.37828, with a stop placed above the triangle’s top near $1.38792.
Structure-wise, the pair has formed a series of lower highs since April 15, while support around $1.37973 and $1.37621 continues to attract bids — setting the stage for a breakout resolution.
The 50 SMA at $1.38592 is trending flat, reflecting consolidation rather than directional bias. However, current price action below this level, along with the recent engulfing candle, suggests bearish momentum may be brewing.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 40.45, pointing downward and nearing oversold territory — but not yet offering divergence or reversal signals.
Should price push below the triangle's ascending trendline near $1.37973, it would likely open the door to deeper losses toward $1.37621 and potentially $1.37226. On the flip side, if bulls defend $1.38200 and reclaim $1.38592, we could see another test of $1.38921 and beyond.
Until a clean break occurs, traders should expect choppy price action within the triangle. The bias slightly favors bears as long as price remains below $1.38452.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.38452
Take Profit – 1.37828
Stop Loss – 1.38792
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$624/ -$340
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$62/ -$34
USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD pair reversed intraday losses and rose to around the 1.3849 level. The pair gained traction as political uncertainty in Canada weighed on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) following the country’s recent federal election.
However, the Canadian Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, managed to retain power but fell short of securing a parliamentary majority, sparking concerns over political gridlock and weakened trade negotiation power with the United States.
According to early results, the Liberals were ahead in 167 seats—just 5 short of the 172 needed for a majority in Canada’s 343-seat House of Commons.
The Conservative Party was in second place with 145 seats. This unclear outcome caused pressure on the Canadian dollar (CAD), as investors worried about political uncertainty and future trade deals.
USD/CAD Supported by Renewed US-China Trade Optimism
Adding to the bullish momentum of USD/CAD was the positive sentiment surrounding US-China trade relations. The US Dollar drew strength after President Trump signaled a possible rollback of tariffs on Chinese imports.
Meanwhile, Beijing responded by announcing exemptions on select US goods, reviving hopes of a resolution to the long-standing trade conflict between the two largest economies.
Trump further reassured markets by confirming active communication with Chinese President Xi Jinping and ongoing progress in negotiations.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the US administration is considering lowering overlapping duties on automobiles and reducing tariffs on imported car parts—moves that suggest a broader shift towards easing trade barriers.
This renewed optimism around US-China ties boosted demand for the greenback, as easing trade tensions typically support global risk sentiment and strengthen the US Dollar’s appeal.
Canadian Political Instability and US Trade Signals Strengthen USD/CAD Outlook
Therefore, the combination of Canadian domestic uncertainty and growing confidence in global trade talks has tilted sentiment in favor of the USD/CAD pair.
Market participants remain cautious about the implications of Canada’s minority government, particularly its limited influence in key policy areas like trade, economic recovery, and foreign investment.
At the same time, US economic diplomacy is gaining traction, with President Trump actively pursuing measures to reduce trade frictions.
These developments reinforce bullish pressure on the USD, especially as markets shift focus to more stable and proactive economic leadership.
Going forward, traders will likely keep a close eye on Canada’s political negotiations and further US-China trade announcements, both of which could significantly influence the direction of the USD/CAD pair in the near term.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is coiling within a symmetrical triangle pattern, showing reduced volatility as price action compresses between converging trendlines.
The pair is currently trading just below the $1.38452 pivot, with downside momentum building after a clear rejection at the triangle’s upper boundary near $1.38921.
A break below $1.38452 activates a short setup targeting $1.37828, with a stop placed above the triangle’s top near $1.38792.
Structure-wise, the pair has formed a series of lower highs since April 15, while support around $1.37973 and $1.37621 continues to attract bids — setting the stage for a breakout resolution.
The 50 SMA at $1.38592 is trending flat, reflecting consolidation rather than directional bias. However, current price action below this level, along with the recent engulfing candle, suggests bearish momentum may be brewing.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 40.45, pointing downward and nearing oversold territory — but not yet offering divergence or reversal signals.
Should price push below the triangle's ascending trendline near $1.37973, it would likely open the door to deeper losses toward $1.37621 and potentially $1.37226. On the flip side, if bulls defend $1.38200 and reclaim $1.38592, we could see another test of $1.38921 and beyond.
Until a clean break occurs, traders should expect choppy price action within the triangle. The bias slightly favors bears as long as price remains below $1.38452.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Engulfing Candle: Formed near trendline resistance, signaling renewed downside interest.
- Downtrend Intact: Price remains beneath both the descending trendline and 50-SMA.
- Weak Momentum: RSI at 36 confirms bearish control, with more room for downside.
USD/CAD remains under sustained bearish pressure, trading below a descending trendline and the 50-period SMA, currently at 1.3851. The pair is forming lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the downtrend.
A fresh rejection from the 1.3850–1.3863 supply zone suggests sellers remain in control, and momentum favors a continuation lower if 1.3819 is breached.
A bearish engulfing candlestick appeared near the trendline resistance during the latest rejection, signaling increased selling interest at higher levels.
This pattern adds confluence to the bearish outlook, particularly as price action remains beneath both the 50-SMA and the trendline.
The RSI stands at 36 and is sloping lower, showing weakening bullish attempts and renewed bearish momentum.
The entry trigger sits just below 1.3819, with the next support at 1.3742, followed by 1.3704. A close above 1.3863 would invalidate this setup and potentially shift sentiment in the short term.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.38197
Take Profit – 1.37424
Stop Loss – 1.38635
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$773/ -$438
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$77/ -$43
USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 22, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair has continued to move lower for the second day in a row, trading close to 1.3810 on Tuesday. However, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) has been strengthening, mainly due to a rebound in crude oil prices and positive economic factors supporting the currency.
CAD Strengthened by WTI Oil Rebound and Increased Canadian Oil Exports to China
However, the recent strength of the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is mainly driven by the rebound in West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil prices, which bounced back from a recent sell-off and are now trading around $63.30 per barrel. This rise has led investors to cover their short positions, adding to the upward momentum of the CAD.
Moreover, a significant shift in global oil trade is contributing to the CAD’s strength. China has drastically reduced its US oil imports by 90%, redirecting more than a quarter of its seaborne oil demand to Canada through the new Alberta–Vancouver pipeline. This move has boosted Canada's oil export revenues, providing further support to the CAD.
BoC's Steady Rate Decision and Its Impact on CAD Stability Amid US Tariff Risks
On the flip side, the Bank of Canada's (BoC) recent decision to hold its policy rate steady at 2.75% has added further stability to the Canadian Dollar. While the central bank acknowledged an uncertain US tariff outlook, it maintained a cautious optimism that stable growth with near-target inflation remains possible.
However, escalating US tariffs could trigger recessionary pressures and rising inflation in Canada, posing risks to the CAD in the medium term. Nevertheless, the current policy stance has helped keep the CAD resilient in the face of broader market uncertainty.
USD Under Pressure Amid US Political Uncertainty and Trade Tensions with China
On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) remains under pressure, weighed down by heightened political and economic uncertainty in the United States. Investor sentiment has been fragile amid ongoing global trade tensions, particularly with China, as US President Trump faces mounting challenges with his tariff strategies.
Adding to this uncertainty, Trump's proposal to investigate critical mineral imports has raised concerns about slower US growth and potential inflationary risks, further putting the USD on the defensive.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD remains under sustained bearish pressure, trading below a descending trendline and the 50-period SMA, currently at 1.3851. The pair is forming lower highs and lower lows, reinforcing the downtrend.
A fresh rejection from the 1.3850–1.3863 supply zone suggests sellers remain in control, and momentum favors a continuation lower if 1.3819 is breached.
A bearish engulfing candlestick appeared near the trendline resistance during the latest rejection, signaling increased selling interest at higher levels.
This pattern adds confluence to the bearish outlook, particularly as price action remains beneath both the 50-SMA and the trendline.
The RSI stands at 36 and is sloping lower, showing weakening bullish attempts and renewed bearish momentum.
The entry trigger sits just below 1.3819, with the next support at 1.3742, followed by 1.3704. A close above 1.3863 would invalidate this setup and potentially shift sentiment in the short term.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Pressure Holds: Price remains capped below $1.3912, suggesting continued downside risk.
- Momentum Weak: RSI at 37 confirms limited buying strength.
- Break Below $1.3830: Could accelerate a decline toward $1.3750 and $1.3677.
USD/CAD is trading in a narrow range following an extended downward move, holding below key resistance at $1.3912. This level aligns with a previous consolidation area and coincides with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension of the prior leg. The pair has been unable to break through this ceiling, reinforcing a bearish setup, especially with momentum indicators remaining under pressure.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $1.4076, is sloping downward and far from current price levels, confirming that the medium-term trend remains to the downside. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37.6, with no strong sign of reversal, indicating persistent bearish momentum.
Price continues to test the lower boundary of a short-term consolidation box between $1.3912 and $1.3830, signaling potential for further downside if the lower bound is breached.
If sellers regain control and push below $1.3830, the next support zone comes into focus near $1.3750 — a key Fibonacci projection level. A move beyond that may extend toward $1.3677, where deeper support from the 2.272 extension lies.
As long as price remains below the $1.3912 resistance, short-term bias stays bearish. A break above this level would invalidate the setup and open the way back toward the $1.3965 resistance. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.39126
Take Profit – 1.38034
Stop Loss – 1.39652
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1092/ -$526
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$109/ -$52
USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair dropped back toward the 1.3857 level, reversing its short-lived recovery and continuing its downward trend.
This decline happened as the US Dollar (USD) lost strength due to growing market worries about the US economic outlook and unclear signals about the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates.
Investors are now focusing on Canada’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which is expected later today and could give the pair a new direction.
US Dollar Weakens Despite Earlier Hawkish Fed Commentary
Despite earlier support from hawkish comments by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who emphasized that reaching 2% inflation will take time, the US Dollar faced renewed selling pressure. Market participants are becoming more cautious due to concerns over stagflation and mixed opinions about the Fed’s next move.
Deutsche Bank recently updated its forecast, now expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by two more rate cuts in early 2026. This change in expectations has reduced demand for the US Dollar, pushing the USD/CAD pair lower again.
Canadian Dollar Gains Ground on Improved Risk Sentiment and Trade Relief
On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthened as market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump decided to exempt certain tech products, such as smartphones and laptops, from tariffs.
This decision eased concerns about the US-China trade tensions and increased demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the CAD.
Moreover, the Loonie received support from falling US bond yields and growing expectations ahead of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release today, which could influence the Bank of Canada’s future policy decisions.
USD/CAD Volatility Ahead as Investors Await Canadian CPI and Central Bank Signals
Looking forward, the USD/CAD pair is expected to remain volatile as inflation data and central bank policies continue to influence market sentiment in both the US and Canada.
Investors are adjusting their positions ahead of Canada’s Core CPI release, as a stronger-than-expected inflation reading could make near-term rate cuts from the Bank of Canada less likely, which would support the CAD.
At the same time, Canada’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to 3.12%, down from a recent peak of 3.27%, indicating caution from investors amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.
Therefore, the expectation of stronger Canadian inflation and a lower bond yield suggests reduced likelihood of Bank of Canada rate cuts, supporting the CAD and potentially causing further downside pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading in a narrow range following an extended downward move, holding below key resistance at $1.3912. This level aligns with a previous consolidation area and coincides with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension of the prior leg. The pair has been unable to break through this ceiling, reinforcing a bearish setup, especially with momentum indicators remaining under pressure.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $1.4076, is sloping downward and far from current price levels, confirming that the medium-term trend remains to the downside. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37.6, with no strong sign of reversal, indicating persistent bearish momentum.
Price continues to test the lower boundary of a short-term consolidation box between $1.3912 and $1.3830, signaling potential for further downside if the lower bound is breached.
If sellers regain control and push below $1.3830, the next support zone comes into focus near $1.3750 — a key Fibonacci projection level. A move beyond that may extend toward $1.3677, where deeper support from the 2.272 extension lies.
As long as price remains below the $1.3912 resistance, short-term bias stays bearish. A break above this level would invalidate the setup and open the way back toward the $1.3965 resistance. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 08, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure around below 1.4200 level.
The Canadian Dollar (CAD) gained strength against the US Dollar (USD), largely driven by recent developments in global trade dynamics and rising expectations for US Federal Reserve rate cuts. These factors combined with a shift in investor sentiment towards riskier assets, further pressuring the USD/CAD pair.
Canada Avoids New Tariffs, Providing Support for CAD
However, the factors contributing to the Loonie's outperformance is Canada's ability to avoid new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump. Last week, Trump unveiled sweeping new tariffs on dozens of countries, imposing a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the US, alongside higher duties on some major trading partners.
However, Canada and Mexico were notably spared in this round, with the exception of auto exports, as well as steel and aluminum, which fall under separate tariff policies.
This development has offered some much-needed support to the Canadian Dollar, as it remains relatively shielded from the growing global trade war. According to Jayati Bharadwaj, a global FX strategist at TD Securities, "CAD is outperforming non-USD peers as Canada remains relatively shielded from the new round of tariffs."
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Grow Amid Rising Recession Fears
Meanwhile, the US Dollar is facing downward pressure as investors raise their bets on additional interest rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve.
The latest US tariff impositions have sparked concerns of a potential recession, with markets now pricing in a nearly 65% chance of a Fed rate cut in May.
Moreover, futures are indicating approximately 100 basis points worth of rate reductions by December 2025, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
Therefore, the growing expectations for US interest rate cuts put downward pressure on the USD, weakening the US Dollar against the Canadian Dollar (CAD), contributing to the USD/CAD pair's decline.
USD/CAD Outlook: Impact of US Economic Data, Fed Policy, and Global Trade Developments
Looking ahead, the USD/CAD pair's direction will largely depend on developments surrounding the US economy and any potential shifts in Fed policy. With growing recession fears and the likelihood of further rate cuts, the USD may continue to face downward pressure.
On the other hand, the CAD may maintain its strength, aided by Canada's avoidance of new tariffs and its relative immunity to the global trade tensions.
In the coming weeks, traders will closely monitor the impact of these factors on the USD/CAD pair, particularly as US economic data and Fed commentary continue to shape market expectations.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading at $1.41636, leaning bearish after failing to break above the $1.42204 resistance level. The pair continues to struggle under a descending trendline and the 50-period SMA at $1.42646, both of which cap upside momentum.
Price recently attempted a corrective move, but selling pressure resumed near $1.42200, suggesting bears remain in control. The setup shows potential for a deeper decline, particularly if price breaks and holds below $1.41600.
On the downside, key support is seen at $1.41024—just above the April low. A break beneath this level could open the door to $1.40308 and potentially $1.39619 in extension.
The RSI at 41.16 remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating momentum is soft and still favors sellers. If price fails to reclaim $1.42204 and stays below the 50 SMA, a bearish continuation becomes increasingly likely.
Traders will want to see a sustained move under $1.41600 to confirm the breakout, ideally on increased volume and without immediate rejection. Until then, short-term price action remains vulnerable to minor retracements.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Price remains capped below the 50-period SMA and descending trendline.
- Support at $1.41024 is key for confirming further downside.
- Momentum favors bears unless $1.42204 is reclaimed with strength.
USD/CAD is trading at $1.41636, leaning bearish after failing to break above the $1.42204 resistance level. The pair continues to struggle under a descending trendline and the 50-period SMA at $1.42646, both of which cap upside momentum.
Price recently attempted a corrective move, but selling pressure resumed near $1.42200, suggesting bears remain in control. The setup shows potential for a deeper decline, particularly if price breaks and holds below $1.41600.
On the downside, key support is seen at $1.41024—just above the April low. A break beneath this level could open the door to $1.40308 and potentially $1.39619 in extension.
The RSI at 41.16 remains below the neutral 50 mark, indicating momentum is soft and still favors sellers. If price fails to reclaim $1.42204 and stays below the 50 SMA, a bearish continuation becomes increasingly likely.
Traders will want to see a sustained move under $1.41600 to confirm the breakout, ideally on increased volume and without immediate rejection. Until then, short-term price action remains vulnerable to minor retracements.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.42204
Take Profit – 1.41024
Stop Loss – 1.43052
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1180/ -$848
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$118/ -$84
USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 01, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
USD/CAD has climbed decisively above a multi-week descending trendline, crossing the $1.4320 level and reclaiming ground above its 50-period SMA ($1.43219).
The move suggests a bullish reversal is gaining traction, with risk-off sentiment acting as a tailwind for the U.S. dollar.
Traders appear increasingly defensive ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s anticipated tariff announcement on Wednesday.
The president confirmed the plan will target all countries, intensifying concerns of a broader trade conflict. This uncertainty continues to weigh on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), particularly given Canada’s heavy export reliance on the U.S.
CAD Faces Headwinds Despite Oil Support
The Loonie remains under pressure after Trump reiterated his administration’s plans to enforce a 25% tariff on auto imports. Given that nearly 75% of Canadian exports are U.S.-bound—primarily oil and autos—this development poses significant downside risk. However, rising crude oil prices may offer some near-term support for the CAD.
As Canada is the largest oil supplier to the U.S., an uptick in crude often lends strength to its currency. Nonetheless, the overall backdrop remains fragile, with sentiment driven by U.S. policy unpredictability and global trade realignments.
Supportive Factors for CAD:
Brent and WTI prices remain elevated amid OPEC+ monitoring.
Oil remains Canada's key export; gains here cushion downside.
Friday’s jobs report could offset tariff impact if strong.
Traders Focus on Packed Canadian Data Week
The Canadian calendar is packed with high-impact events this week that could steer the USD/CAD pair.
Key Upcoming Events:
Tuesday, April 1 – Manufacturing PMI: Previous reading: 47.8
Thursday, April 3 – Trade Balance: Forecast: C$3.4B (vs. C$4.0B prior)
Friday, April 4 – Employment Change & Unemployment Rate: Forecast: 10.4K jobs, 6.7% unemployment (vs. 1.1K and 6.6% prior)
With the job market data and trade balance numbers in focus, the Loonie's direction hinges on whether economic strength can counteract external trade risks.
A better-than-expected jobs report could slow USD/CAD’s bullish momentum—but if Canadian data disappoints, the pair may target the $1.44 zone next.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD has broken decisively above a multi-week descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal as price reclaims ground above the 50-period simple moving average ($1.43219).
The pair’s upward momentum accelerated following the breakout from the $1.4370 resistance, which now flips to near-term support. Price is now hovering just below the $1.4450 zone, a level last tested mid-March.
The momentum shift is confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently reading 65.88 and trending higher—suggesting sustained buying interest without yet entering overbought territory.
The bullish crossover of the RSI and its moving average line reinforces this positive momentum. The 50-SMA, once resistance, is now providing dynamic support and aligning with the former descending trendline, offering technical confluence.
If price sustains above the $1.4370 breakout level, upside potential remains toward the $1.4450–$1.4526 resistance corridor. Conversely, a drop back below $1.4315 could invalidate the breakout and expose the pair to renewed bearish pressure toward $1.4237 and $1.4160.
Overall, technicals support a bullish near-term outlook, with momentum, structure, and breakout signals all aligned in favor of further gains—provided price holds above the $1.4370 pivot.
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