USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD breaks out of descending trendline, reclaiming bullish structure
- RSI confirms momentum shift with continued upside pressure
- As long as $1.4370 holds, bulls remain in control targeting $1.4450 and higher
USD/CAD has broken decisively above a multi-week descending trendline, signaling a potential bullish reversal as price reclaims ground above the 50-period simple moving average ($1.43219).
The pair’s upward momentum accelerated following the breakout from the $1.4370 resistance, which now flips to near-term support. Price is now hovering just below the $1.4450 zone, a level last tested mid-March.
The momentum shift is confirmed by the Relative Strength Index (RSI), currently reading 65.88 and trending higher—suggesting sustained buying interest without yet entering overbought territory.
The bullish crossover of the RSI and its moving average line reinforces this positive momentum. The 50-SMA, once resistance, is now providing dynamic support and aligning with the former descending trendline, offering technical confluence.
If price sustains above the $1.4370 breakout level, upside potential remains toward the $1.4450–$1.4526 resistance corridor. Conversely, a drop back below $1.4315 could invalidate the breakout and expose the pair to renewed bearish pressure toward $1.4237 and $1.4160.
Overall, technicals support a bullish near-term outlook, with momentum, structure, and breakout signals all aligned in favor of further gains—provided price holds above the $1.4370 pivot.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.43714
Take Profit – 1.44507
Stop Loss – 1.43050
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$793/ -$664
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$79/ -$66
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD holds above pivot at $1.43084; bias leans mildly bullish.
- Break above $1.43596 may target $1.44013 and $1.44518 resistance.
- Support sits at $1.42661; deeper risk toward $1.42125 if broken.
USD/CAD is trading marginally lower at $1.43282, just above its pivot point at $1.43084, maintaining a cautiously bullish tone in early trading.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair consolidating above a key support level, with the 50-period EMA positioned at $1.43445. Price action remains tightly compressed between this EMA and immediate resistance at $1.43596, signaling indecision but with an upward lean.
A break above $1.43596 would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially lifting the pair toward the next resistance levels at $1.44013 and $1.44518. These zones represent areas of recent selling interest and will be critical in determining the sustainability of any breakout.
On the downside, if the pair dips below the pivot at $1.43084, immediate support lies at $1.42661. A further breakdown may expose deeper levels at $1.42125 and $1.41602, with the latter serving as a major trendline support zone.
As long as the pair stays above the pivot and reclaims the 50-EMA, short-term bias remains upward. However, any failure to hold above $1.43084 could shift control back to sellers.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.43088
Take Profit – 1.43845
Stop Loss – 1.42670
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$757/ -$418
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$75/ -$41
USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair is currently trading around 1.4320, recovering after losses in the previous session.
The pair, which is usually sensitive to market risk sentiment, is gaining strength as traders remain cautious ahead of US President Donald Trump’s upcoming tariff announcement on April 2.
The uncertainty surrounding the potential for new tariffs is affecting investor sentiment, but the Canadian Dollar (CAD) is finding some support due to mixed signals from Trump’s comments. This balance of caution and uncertainty is keeping the pair in focus for traders.
Risk Aversion and Tariff Expectations Impacting USD/CAD
On the CAD front, the Canadian dollar has been buoyed by comments from Trump, who hinted that "a lot" of countries could receive exemptions from the tariffs, though details remain uncertain.
This sparked some optimism among investors, who welcomed the possibility that the US may adopt a more targeted, measured approach to tariffs. This easing of concerns over potential disruptions to Canadian businesses has provided support for the CAD, allowing it to recover against the USD.
Despite this, the US dollar faced pressure due to rising fears of an economic slowdown, fueled in part by concerns surrounding Trump’s trade policies. The uncertainty surrounding the tariff announcement has led to a risk-off sentiment in the markets, with investors seeking safer assets.
However, the pressure on the USD has been somewhat offset by hawkish comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell last week. Powell emphasized the solid labor market and inflation moving closer to the Fed’s 2% target, which helped to support the Greenback.
US Economic Data Provides Mixed Signals
On the economic front, the latest data paints a mixed picture for the US economy. The S&P Global US Composite PMI for March rose to 53.5, marking a strong recovery from February’s 10-month low of 51.6 and signaling the strongest expansion since December 2024.
This growth was largely driven by a sharp rebound in business activity in the services sector. The S&P Global US Services PMI surged to a three-month high of 54.3, surpassing expectations and showing a marked improvement from February’s reading of 51.0.
On the other hand, the Manufacturing PMI showed signs of weakness, slipping to 49.8 from 52.7 and falling short of expectations. This decline followed February’s strong manufacturing growth, indicating that while the services sector remains robust, the manufacturing sector is facing headwinds.
Therefore, the mixed US economic data, with strong services growth but weak manufacturing, could create volatility in the USD/CAD pair, as traders weigh the overall strength of the US economy.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading marginally lower at $1.43282, just above its pivot point at $1.43084, maintaining a cautiously bullish tone in early trading.
The 4-hour chart shows the pair consolidating above a key support level, with the 50-period EMA positioned at $1.43445. Price action remains tightly compressed between this EMA and immediate resistance at $1.43596, signaling indecision but with an upward lean.
A break above $1.43596 would indicate renewed bullish momentum, potentially lifting the pair toward the next resistance levels at $1.44013 and $1.44518. These zones represent areas of recent selling interest and will be critical in determining the sustainability of any breakout.
On the downside, if the pair dips below the pivot at $1.43084, immediate support lies at $1.42661. A further breakdown may expose deeper levels at $1.42125 and $1.41602, with the latter serving as a major trendline support zone.
As long as the pair stays above the pivot and reclaims the 50-EMA, short-term bias remains upward. However, any failure to hold above $1.43084 could shift control back to sellers.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD remains bearish below $1.43084, with downside targets at $1.42764 and $1.42409.
- Resistance at $1.43388 must be broken for bulls to regain control and push toward $1.43793.
- Oil price strength and Fed policy shifts will influence USD/CAD’s next major move.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.42958, showing slight weakness as it struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price is currently below the pivot point at $1.43084, suggesting that sellers hold control in the near term.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43514 reinforces bearish sentiment, indicating further downside potential if key support levels break.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.43388, followed by $1.43793 and $1.44214. A break above these levels could indicate renewed buying interest, but momentum remains weak. For bulls to regain control, USD/CAD must decisively close above the 50-day EMA at $1.43514.
On the downside, support at $1.42764 is critical for short-term price action. A break below this level could drive the pair toward $1.42409, with further declines extending to $1.42086. A sustained move below $1.42764 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially leading to deeper losses.
Technically, a break below $1.43080 is likely to accelerate selling pressure, making $1.42573 a key short-term target.
However, if USD/CAD rebounds and moves above $1.43388, sentiment could shift toward a potential bullish correction. Traders should watch for a break below $1.43080 to confirm further downside momentum.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.43080
Take Profit – 1.42573
Stop Loss – 1.43374
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$507/ -$294
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$50/ -$29
USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair maintained its upward trend and stayed above the 1.4300 level. The rise was mainly due to the US Dollar (USD) recovering after recent losses.
Traders remained cautious as they waited for key economic data and central bank decisions, which could impact the pair’s movement.
USD Finds Support Ahead of Fed Meeting but Faces Rate Cut Pressure
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has recovered slightly from its lowest level since October 2024, driven by repositioning ahead of this week’s crucial Federal Reserve (Fed) meeting. Despite this rebound, USD gains remain limited as markets anticipate multiple rate cuts by the Fed this year, keeping broader pressure on the greenback and affecting USD/CAD movement.
Oil Prices and Trade Developments Support the Canadian Dollar
Another factor that impacts the USD/CAD pair is the rise in crude oil prices, which are near a two-week high due to tensions in the Middle East.
This supports the Canadian Dollar (CAD) since Canada is a major oil exporter. Also, progress in US-Canada trade talks has strengthened CAD, limiting further gains in USD/CAD.
Canada’s Inflation Data and BoC Policy Impact on USD/CAD
On the other side, Canada’s February inflation data, set to be released on Tuesday, could impact the USD/CAD pair. Inflation is expected to rise from 1.9% to 2.1%, which may support the Canadian Dollar (CAD).
The Bank of Canada (BoC) will also publish its core CPI report, which tracks underlying inflation trends. In January, core CPI rose by 0.4% MoM and 2.1% YoY.
The BoC recently cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 2.75%, its seventh consecutive cut due to slowing economic growth.
However, new US tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum could raise inflation risks, possibly influencing BoC’s future rate decisions and affecting USD/CAD movements.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.42958, showing slight weakness as it struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price is currently below the pivot point at $1.43084, suggesting that sellers hold control in the near term.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43514 reinforces bearish sentiment, indicating further downside potential if key support levels break.
On the upside, immediate resistance stands at $1.43388, followed by $1.43793 and $1.44214. A break above these levels could indicate renewed buying interest, but momentum remains weak. For bulls to regain control, USD/CAD must decisively close above the 50-day EMA at $1.43514.
On the downside, support at $1.42764 is critical for short-term price action. A break below this level could drive the pair toward $1.42409, with further declines extending to $1.42086. A sustained move below $1.42764 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially leading to deeper losses.
Technically, a break below $1.43080 is likely to accelerate selling pressure, making $1.42573 a key short-term target.
However, if USD/CAD rebounds and moves above $1.43388, sentiment could shift toward a potential bullish correction. Traders should watch for a break below $1.43080 to confirm further downside momentum.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 11, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD is struggling to stop its declines and remain under pressure around 1.4407.
The pair faces downside pressure as the US Dollar (USD) weakens amid growing concerns that uncertainty over tariff policies could push the US economy into recession.
Investors are now looking ahead to February’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on Wednesday, which could provide further insights into inflation trends and the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) potential policy direction.
US Economic Uncertainty Weighs on the US Dollar
The global market sentiment turned cautious after former President Donald Trump said the economy is in a "transition period," hinting at a possible slowdown. Investors saw this as a warning of economic trouble.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) is weak, staying around 103.80. Meanwhile, US job data for February was weaker than expected, increasing hopes that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates multiple times this year.
According to LSEG data, traders now anticipate a total of 75 basis points (bps) in rate cuts, with a June rate cut fully priced in. On the data front, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported on Friday that Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) increased by only 151,000 in February, missing the forecast of 160,000.
Meanwhile, January’s job growth was revised downward to 125,000 from 143,000. This weak labor market data adds to recession fears and puts further pressure on the US Dollar.
Impact of Tariff Policies and Trade Tensions
On the other hand, the US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum will start on Wednesday as planned.
US steelmakers have urged Trump to maintain these tariffs, but businesses reliant on these materials may face increased costs, further impacting economic stability.
Meanwhile, Trump also commented on trade relations with Ukraine, mentioning that his administration is considering lifting an intelligence pause and reviewing tariff measures against Russia. These geopolitical uncertainties contribute to market caution, further weakening USD sentiment.
Bank of Canada’s Rate Decision and USD/CAD Outlook
On the Canadian front, the Bank of Canada (BoC) is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming March meeting on Wednesday.
Analysts at CIBC predict that the BoC will lower its benchmark rate to 2.75%, with further cuts likely if trade uncertainty persists.
Hence, the rate cut by the BoC could limit USD/CAD’s downside, but broader US economic concerns are likely to keep the pair under pressure.
Looking ahead, traders will closely watch the US CPI data release on Wednesday, as it could shape expectations for the Fed’s future monetary policy decisions.
If inflation remains subdued, it could reinforce expectations for multiple rate cuts, adding further pressure on the USD and influencing USD/CAD’s movement.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.44456, edging up 0.03% as buyers maintain control above the $1.44097 pivot point. The pair remains in an uptrend, bolstered by a weaker Canadian dollar and sustained strength in the U.S. dollar.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43654 is providing strong dynamic support, reinforcing bullish momentum. If USD/CAD continues higher, immediate resistance is seen at $1.44735, followed by $1.45426 and $1.45986, signaling further upside potential.
On the downside, support at $1.43537 remains critical—losing this level could push the pair toward $1.43003, with further declines targeting $1.42409. However, as long as USD/CAD holds above the $1.44097 pivot point, the short-term trend favors buyers.
From a trading perspective, a buy entry above $1.44097 is favored, targeting $1.44739, with a stop loss at $1.43773. Key drivers include Fed rate expectations, oil price fluctuations, and overall risk sentiment in global markets.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD remains bullish above $1.44097, with resistance at $1.44735 and $1.45426.
- Support at $1.43537 is critical; a break below could push the pair toward $1.43003 and $1.42409.
- Traders favor buying above $1.44097, with a target at $1.44739 and a stop loss at $1.43773.
The USD/CAD pair is trading at $1.44456, edging up 0.03% as buyers maintain control above the $1.44097 pivot point. The pair remains in an uptrend, bolstered by a weaker Canadian dollar and sustained strength in the U.S. dollar.
The 50-day EMA at $1.43654 is providing strong dynamic support, reinforcing bullish momentum. If USD/CAD continues higher, immediate resistance is seen at $1.44735, followed by $1.45426 and $1.45986, signaling further upside potential.
On the downside, support at $1.43537 remains critical—losing this level could push the pair toward $1.43003, with further declines targeting $1.42409. However, as long as USD/CAD holds above the $1.44097 pivot point, the short-term trend favors buyers.
From a trading perspective, a buy entry above $1.44097 is favored, targeting $1.44739, with a stop loss at $1.43773. Key drivers include Fed rate expectations, oil price fluctuations, and overall risk sentiment in global markets.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.44097
Take Profit – 1.44739
Stop Loss – 1.43773
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$642/ -$324
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$64/ -$32
USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/CAD remains capped below $1.45201; a break lower could trigger selling toward $1.43964.
- The 50-day EMA at $1.44122 is acting as support—holding above it keeps bullish momentum intact.
- Short positions below $1.45190 are favorable, with a take-profit at $1.44178 and a stop-loss at $1.45861.
The U.S. dollar is holding firm against the Canadian dollar, trading at $1.44815, maintaining an upward bias but still below its pivot point of $1.45201.
The pair remains supported by the 50-day EMA at $1.44122, which has provided a near-term floor for buyers.
However, a failure to reclaim the pivot point could shift momentum lower, exposing USD/CAD to downside risks toward immediate support at $1.43964, followed by deeper levels at $1.43190 and $1.42453.
If bullish momentum persists, USD/CAD will need a decisive break above $1.45201 to test the first resistance at $1.45947. A stronger rally could extend gains toward $1.46429, with a more significant upside move targeting $1.47012.
However, recent price action suggests cautious trading, with selling pressure likely to emerge near resistance levels.
Traders may consider short positions below $1.45190, with a take-profit target at $1.44178 and a stop-loss at $1.45861 to manage risk. The U.S. dollar’s strength, largely driven by Federal Reserve rate expectations, remains a key factor in determining USD/CAD’s trajectory.
Meanwhile, oil price movements could influence the Canadian dollar, as stronger crude prices typically provide support for CAD, while weakness in energy markets could exacerbate downside risks for the loonie.
USD/CAD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.45190
Take Profit – 1.44178
Stop Loss – 1.45861
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1012/ -$671
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$101/ -$67
USD/CAD Price Analysis – March 04, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD pair struggled to extend its rally toward the 1.4500 mark, encountering strong selling pressure that pushed it down to 1.4428.
The pair touched an intra-day low of 1.4410 as the US Dollar lost momentum, despite the Canadian Dollar (CAD) sinking to a one-month low.
However, the Loonie came under additional pressure after US President Donald Trump confirmed that new tariffs—25% on Canadian goods and 10% on energy exports—would take effect starting Tuesday.
Therefore, the announcement fueled further weakness in the CAD, limiting USD/CAD’s upside potential and adding to market volatility.
Trump’s Tariffs and Lower Crude Prices Pressure the Canadian Dollar
On the US front, President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to impose tariffs on Canada and Mexico, which were originally set for April but moved up to March. The new trade restrictions have sparked fears of a trade war, raising concerns about their impact on the global economy.
Consequently, the Canadian Prime Minister’s office confirmed that Canada will impose retaliatory tariffs on US imports starting Tuesday.
Canada plans to begin with 25% tariffs on US imports worth C$30 billion and is actively considering additional non-tariff measures in collaboration with provinces and territories.
This escalating trade conflict introduces further uncertainty, which could impact both the Canadian Dollar and broader market sentiment in the coming sessions.
Meanwhile, lower crude oil prices have put additional pressure on the Canadian Dollar (CAD), as Canada is the largest oil exporter to the US. Reports that OPEC+ will increase oil production in April have further dragged oil prices down, reducing demand for the commodity-linked CAD.
Consequently, the tariffs and falling oil prices weakened the Canadian Dollar, pushing USD/CAD higher. However, trade war fears and market volatility limited the pair’s gains, preventing a sustained breakout above key resistance levels.
Weak US Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Speculation, Weighing on USD
On the other hand, the US Dollar has been losing traction due to weaker economic data. The ISM reported that US Manufacturing PMI fell to 50.3 in February, below expectations of 50.5 and down from January’s 50.9.
This raised speculation that the Federal Reserve might cut rates in June, with the probability rising to 87% from 69% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The dovish outlook pressured the US Dollar, limiting further gains for USD/CAD despite the Canadian Dollar's weakness.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
The U.S. dollar is holding firm against the Canadian dollar, trading at $1.44815, maintaining an upward bias but still below its pivot point of $1.45201.
The pair remains supported by the 50-day EMA at $1.44122, which has provided a near-term floor for buyers.
However, a failure to reclaim the pivot point could shift momentum lower, exposing USD/CAD to downside risks toward immediate support at $1.43964, followed by deeper levels at $1.43190 and $1.42453.
If bullish momentum persists, USD/CAD will need a decisive break above $1.45201 to test the first resistance at $1.45947. A stronger rally could extend gains toward $1.46429, with a more significant upside move targeting $1.47012.
However, recent price action suggests cautious trading, with selling pressure likely to emerge near resistance levels.
Traders may consider short positions below $1.45190, with a take-profit target at $1.44178 and a stop-loss at $1.45861 to manage risk. The U.S. dollar’s strength, largely driven by Federal Reserve rate expectations, remains a key factor in determining USD/CAD’s trajectory.
Meanwhile, oil price movements could influence the Canadian dollar, as stronger crude prices typically provide support for CAD, while weakness in energy markets could exacerbate downside risks for the loonie.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – Feb 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD pair struggles to maintain its recent gains and drifts lower after reaching the 1.4275-1.4280 region, marking a one-and-a-half-week high.
It is currently trading around the 1.4240 level, down nearly 0.15% for the day, amid renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
The Greenback remains under pressure following weak US economic data, which has reinforced expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year.
Weaker US Economic Data Weighs on the USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is struggling to recover despite an overnight rebound from its lowest level since December 10.
Recent data showed that US business activity contracted, with flash PMIs released last Friday indicating a decline to a 17-month low in February. This has fueled speculation that the Fed will adopt a more dovish stance, further pressuring the USD.
On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) finds support from a recovery in Crude Oil prices, which had hit a fresh year-to-date low on Monday.
The commodity-linked CAD benefits from higher oil prices, as Canada is a major oil exporter. The recent bounce in oil prices has helped the Loonie gain strength, putting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
Adding to the CAD’s strength, Canadian consumer inflation has shown a slight acceleration, reducing expectations of a rate cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC) at its upcoming policy meeting on March 12. This shift in market sentiment has further bolstered the Canadian currency.
Although, the CAD faces risks due to possible economic problems from Trump’s trade tariffs. On Monday, Trump confirmed that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports will start on March 4, as planned, despite efforts to delay them. If these tariffs happen, they could hurt Canada’s economy and slow down the CAD’s growth.
Market Focus on US Economic Data and FOMC Speeches
Moving ahead, Traders now turn their attention to the upcoming US economic reports, including the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index and the Richmond Manufacturing Index.
In the meantime, the speeches from key Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members could provide further insights into the Fed’s monetary policy direction. Any dovish remarks may extend USD weakness, while a more hawkish stance could help the Greenback recover some ground.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading at $1.42491, showing no significant change for the session as traders remain cautious ahead of key economic data.
The pair is currently hovering below the pivotal level of $1.42817, which serves as a critical threshold for short-term market sentiment.
A sustained move below this pivot keeps the bearish outlook intact, with immediate support at $1.42084. If bearish momentum strengthens, the next support is at $1.41515, followed by a deeper safety net at $1.40999.
On the upside, immediate resistance is seen at $1.43425. A break above this level could trigger a rally towards $1.43805, with the next target at $1.44416 if bullish momentum accelerates.
The 50 EMA is positioned at $1.42076, acting as dynamic support. The pair’s ability to stay above this moving average indicates underlying bullish pressure despite short-term hesitation.
The technical outlook suggests a cautious sell below the pivot point of $1.42820, with an entry at this level targeting $1.42085 and a stop loss at $1.43354.
This setup offers a favorable risk-reward ratio, aligning with the current bearish bias. However, traders should look for volume confirmation to validate the downward momentum before committing to short positions.
Conversely, a break above $1.42817 would flip the sentiment to bullish, potentially driving prices towards $1.43425 and beyond.
Given the market's sensitivity to economic indicators and geopolitical tensions, volatility is likely to persist. Traders should remain vigilant for any macroeconomic surprises that could impact USD/CAD’s trajectory.
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