USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

Daily Price Outlook

- Bearish engulfing candle near triangle top suggests seller strength.

- RSI at 40.45 confirms downside pressure without reversal signals.

- Break below $1.38452 may lead to sharp drop toward $1.37828.

USD/CAD is coiling within a symmetrical triangle pattern, showing reduced volatility as price action compresses between converging trendlines.

The pair is currently trading just below the $1.38452 pivot, with downside momentum building after a clear rejection at the triangle’s upper boundary near $1.38921.

A break below $1.38452 activates a short setup targeting $1.37828, with a stop placed above the triangle’s top near $1.38792.

Structure-wise, the pair has formed a series of lower highs since April 15, while support around $1.37973 and $1.37621 continues to attract bids — setting the stage for a breakout resolution.

The 50 SMA at $1.38592 is trending flat, reflecting consolidation rather than directional bias. However, current price action below this level, along with the recent engulfing candle, suggests bearish momentum may be brewing.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 40.45, pointing downward and nearing oversold territory — but not yet offering divergence or reversal signals.

Should price push below the triangle's ascending trendline near $1.37973, it would likely open the door to deeper losses toward $1.37621 and potentially $1.37226. On the flip side, if bulls defend $1.38200 and reclaim $1.38592, we could see another test of $1.38921 and beyond.

Until a clean break occurs, traders should expect choppy price action within the triangle. The bias slightly favors bears as long as price remains below $1.38452.

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.38452

Take Profit – 1.37828

Stop Loss – 1.38792

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$624/ -$340

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$62/ -$34