USD/CAD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

Daily Price Outlook

- Price rejected descending trendline and 50 EMA zone

- RSI neutral at 49.99 with bearish crossover

- Shooting star and indecision candles flag reversal risk

USD/CAD is trading near $1.38227 after rejecting the descending trendline that has capped price action since April. The pair tested the trendline around $1.38393, posting a near-term rejection candle—a classic shooting star—followed by lower-volume indecision candlesticks (doji and spinning tops), signaling fading bullish momentum.

Price remains beneath the downward-sloping trendline and is also hovering around the 50-period EMA at $1.38177, which has flattened, reflecting a neutral to mildly bearish bias.

Sellers appear to be defending the $1.38481–$1.38393 supply zone, making it a critical short-term resistance area. Below current levels, the first major support lies at $1.37945, with further downside potential toward $1.37893 and $1.37767.

The RSI stands at 49.99, below the 50 neutral line, suggesting neither overbought nor oversold conditions, but lacking bullish conviction. No clear divergence is visible at the moment, though a bearish RSI crossover confirms weakening upward momentum.

Structurally, the pair has been carving out lower highs beneath the trendline and is at risk of resuming the broader bearish channel unless bulls retake $1.38626.

No reversal candle patterns such as three white soldiers or bullish engulfing are present, indicating the recent bounce may be corrective. The setup now favors short entries if the pair breaks below $1.38254 with follow-through, targeting $1.37893, while risk is managed above $1.38481.

USD/CAD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.38254

Take Profit – 1.37893

Stop Loss – 1.38481

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.59

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$361/ -$227

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$36/ -$22