USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD pair reversed intraday losses and rose to around the 1.3849 level. The pair gained traction as political uncertainty in Canada weighed on the Canadian Dollar (CAD) following the country’s recent federal election.
However, the Canadian Liberal Party, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney, managed to retain power but fell short of securing a parliamentary majority, sparking concerns over political gridlock and weakened trade negotiation power with the United States.
According to early results, the Liberals were ahead in 167 seats—just 5 short of the 172 needed for a majority in Canada’s 343-seat House of Commons.
The Conservative Party was in second place with 145 seats. This unclear outcome caused pressure on the Canadian dollar (CAD), as investors worried about political uncertainty and future trade deals.
USD/CAD Supported by Renewed US-China Trade Optimism
Adding to the bullish momentum of USD/CAD was the positive sentiment surrounding US-China trade relations. The US Dollar drew strength after President Trump signaled a possible rollback of tariffs on Chinese imports.
Meanwhile, Beijing responded by announcing exemptions on select US goods, reviving hopes of a resolution to the long-standing trade conflict between the two largest economies.
Trump further reassured markets by confirming active communication with Chinese President Xi Jinping and ongoing progress in negotiations.
According to The Wall Street Journal, the US administration is considering lowering overlapping duties on automobiles and reducing tariffs on imported car parts—moves that suggest a broader shift towards easing trade barriers.
This renewed optimism around US-China ties boosted demand for the greenback, as easing trade tensions typically support global risk sentiment and strengthen the US Dollar’s appeal.
Canadian Political Instability and US Trade Signals Strengthen USD/CAD Outlook
Therefore, the combination of Canadian domestic uncertainty and growing confidence in global trade talks has tilted sentiment in favor of the USD/CAD pair.
Market participants remain cautious about the implications of Canada’s minority government, particularly its limited influence in key policy areas like trade, economic recovery, and foreign investment.
At the same time, US economic diplomacy is gaining traction, with President Trump actively pursuing measures to reduce trade frictions.
These developments reinforce bullish pressure on the USD, especially as markets shift focus to more stable and proactive economic leadership.
Going forward, traders will likely keep a close eye on Canada’s political negotiations and further US-China trade announcements, both of which could significantly influence the direction of the USD/CAD pair in the near term.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is coiling within a symmetrical triangle pattern, showing reduced volatility as price action compresses between converging trendlines.
The pair is currently trading just below the $1.38452 pivot, with downside momentum building after a clear rejection at the triangle’s upper boundary near $1.38921.
A break below $1.38452 activates a short setup targeting $1.37828, with a stop placed above the triangle’s top near $1.38792.
Structure-wise, the pair has formed a series of lower highs since April 15, while support around $1.37973 and $1.37621 continues to attract bids — setting the stage for a breakout resolution.
The 50 SMA at $1.38592 is trending flat, reflecting consolidation rather than directional bias. However, current price action below this level, along with the recent engulfing candle, suggests bearish momentum may be brewing.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 40.45, pointing downward and nearing oversold territory — but not yet offering divergence or reversal signals.
Should price push below the triangle's ascending trendline near $1.37973, it would likely open the door to deeper losses toward $1.37621 and potentially $1.37226. On the flip side, if bulls defend $1.38200 and reclaim $1.38592, we could see another test of $1.38921 and beyond.
Until a clean break occurs, traders should expect choppy price action within the triangle. The bias slightly favors bears as long as price remains below $1.38452.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 29, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During early European trading session, the Gold price (XAU/USD) continued to slide lower, trading around $3,270 level.
However, this bearish bias follows recent developments suggesting progress in trade negotiations between the United States and several Asian countries, which reduced safe-haven demand for Gold.
Gold Price Pressured by Trade Deal Progress and Tariff Negotiation Hopes
However, the decline in Gold prices was triggered after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s television interview on Sunday, where he highlighted that multiple trade deals with key Asian partners were progressing well.
Bessent emphasized that while China remains a unique case, deals with other Asian nations are moving along strongly.
Adding to the positive trade sentiment, US Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins mentioned ongoing daily conversations with China over tariffs, suggesting that easing measures could soon be realized. This optimism weighed on Gold, which typically benefits from trade uncertainty.
Although, the declines in the Gold could be limited as the Chinese Foreign Ministry clarified on Monday that there had been no recent phone call between President Xi Jinping and President Trump.
They also noted that no negotiations or consultations on tariffs had occurred, injecting a degree of caution back into markets and slowing Gold’s decline.
Focus on US Nonfarm Payrolls: Impact on Fed’s Decisions and Gold Prices
Moving ahead, traders will focus on Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for April to gauge the strength of the job market.
This is important as it could impact the Federal Reserve’s next move at the May 7 meeting. Recent US data, including a drop in Durable Goods Orders and lower consumer confidence, hints that the economy may be slowing down.
Hence, the strong or weak jobs report could change expectations about interest rate hikes, which in turn would affect Gold prices. When rates rise, Gold becomes less appealing because it doesn’t earn interest like other investments.
Gold Prices Impacted by Australian News and Weak Demand from China
Another factor that has been impacting gold price is the news from Australia. Toubani Resources, a gold mining company listed on the ASX, announced a $160 million debt package through a joint venture.
This boosted investor confidence in the gold sector. Meanwhile, Thailand’s bond market is seeing its strongest monthly inflows in over three years, helped by a stronger baht and hopes for interest rate cuts — trends that were partly supported by earlier rises in gold prices.
However, gold prices stayed under pressure because of weak demand in China. In the first quarter of 2025, China's gold consumption dropped by 5.96% compared to last year, according to the China Gold Association.
Jewelry demand fell sharply by almost 27% due to high prices. Although gold bar and coin purchases jumped nearly 30%, it wasn’t enough to balance the overall decline in demand.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices continue to consolidate within a defined descending triangle, a bearish continuation pattern, while maintaining higher low formations near $3,268. A descending trendline caps upside momentum, with sellers firmly defending the $3,331 zone.
Recent candlestick action has produced multiple spinning tops and a bearish engulfing near resistance — a sign of prevailing indecision giving way to downside pressure.
The RSI is hovering at 46.66, recovering modestly from oversold territory but still below the midline, indicating weak bullish momentum.
Notably, there is no significant bullish divergence, suggesting buyers lack strong conviction. Price remains compressed below the 50-EMA ($3,316), which is sloping downward — a bearish signal.
The broader structure still favors sellers unless $3,331 is decisively broken. Failure to break above the triangle resistance could invite renewed pressure toward $3,268, and if breached, $3,233 support may come into play. A break above $3,331 would negate the bearish setup and expose $3,371 as the next major resistance.
The market also shows hints of a broader bear flag developing on higher timeframes, raising the stakes for upcoming sessions.
Traders should monitor for Doji or shooting star confirmations near resistance to validate short entries, while three white soldiers around $3,268 could signal a trend reversal.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair extended its upward momentum, reaching near 1.3350.
The rally continued as the US Dollar (USD) traded cautiously amidst ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks and the anticipation of crucial US economic data later in the week.
Market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach, awaiting clearer signals from the US-China discussions, with no definitive signs of active talks between the two leaders.
US Dollar’s Caution amid Trade Deal Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained subdued as investors awaited more clarity on the status of US-China trade talks. On Monday, China denied reports that President Xi Jinping had spoken directly with US President Donald Trump about trade terms.
This denial came after Trump suggested that Xi had reached out to him, but he didn't provide any clear details about their conversation. As a result, investors are hesitant to make big moves, waiting for more updates on whether a trade deal is possible.
In addition to the trade-related uncertainty, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against six major currencies, hovered around the 99.50 level. This cautious tone in the USD kept the Pound supported, as traders refrained from making bold moves until clearer economic signals emerged.
Focus on US Economic Data and Fed Policy Outlook
Investors are also awaiting a slew of economic data from the US this week, with attention focused on employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and inflation reports. These releases are crucial for shaping market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants widely anticipate that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in its upcoming meeting on May 6-7, with the current rate range of 4.25%-4.50% expected to remain unchanged.
However, Fed officials have suggested that any future policy changes will depend on clearer signals about the state of the economy.
Pound Outperforms Despite Dovish UK Economic Outlook and Rate Cut Expectations
Despite a generally dovish outlook for the UK economy, the Pound outperformed its peers early in the week.
Market participants continue to price in expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% in its policy meeting on May 8.
These dovish bets were driven by concerns over the potential negative impact of US tariffs on the UK economy and subsiding inflation pressures in the UK.
Moreover, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has acknowledged that global trade tensions, especially the US-China trade dispute, could hurt UK growth, but he has ruled out the chance of a recession soon.
BoE policymaker Megan Greene also raised concerns about weak productivity and risks to the UK labor market, as employers face higher social security costs.
These factors, along with expectations of a potential rate cut, have helped keep the Pound strong against the Dollar.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is displaying early signs of bullish momentum after breaking above a key symmetrical triangle pattern.
The entry trigger near $1.3306 aligns with the breakout of a consolidation structure, suggesting a measured move toward the $1.3348 resistance zone. A bullish breakout from the triangle is often indicative of renewed trend continuation.
Technically, the 50-period EMA, currently at $1.3307, is flattening and attempting to turn higher, providing dynamic support beneath current prices.
The RSI reading at 54.10, edging above the 50 midline, confirms a strengthening bias without approaching overbought levels, leaving room for further upside.
Candle structures around the breakout reveal a mild bullish engulfing pattern followed by a spinning top, reflecting healthy consolidation post-breakout without signs of exhaustion.
No bearish divergence is detected on the RSI, reinforcing the likelihood of continued gains if immediate resistance is breached.
A move above $1.3348 could trigger additional buying, possibly exposing $1.3385 next. Conversely, failure to sustain above the breakout could see a pullback toward $1.3277, which remains key short-term support.
Pattern traders will note the “ABCD harmonic pattern” formation within the broader triangle structure, reinforcing the measured move thesis toward higher resistance levels.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During early European trading hours on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair showed a modest dip, trading near the 1.1350 level.
The pair's decline was primarily driven by the underperformance of the Euro (EUR), as investors await critical economic data from the Eurozone this week, including the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for April and the Q1 GDP figures.
Therefore, the results of these reports are expected to significantly influence the European Central Bank’s (ECB) monetary policy outlook.
EUR/USD Weakness Fueled by Eurozone Economic Data Expectations
On the EUR front, the shared currency has weakened due to expectations around upcoming economic data from the Eurozone.
Analysts predict that the Eurozone's headline HICP inflation will return to the European Central Bank's (ECB) 2% target, marking the slowest price growth since October 2024. This follows a 2.2% increase in March.
Moreover, GDP growth is expected to remain steady at 0.2% quarter-on-quarter for the first quarter of the year.
While moderate inflation and steady growth could suggest a more dovish stance from the ECB, traders are closely watching these figures, as they may increase expectations for an ECB rate cut in June.
In fact, some ECB policymakers are already expressing growing confidence in reducing rates as inflation eases.
However, there is still caution because of risks from global trade tensions, especially between the US and the Eurozone.
ECB policymaker Klaas Knot mentioned that while inflation is expected to decrease, the situation is complicated. US trade tariffs could reduce demand and cause prices to rise more slowly.
Impact of US Dollar Strength on GBP/USD Amid Economic Data and Trade Uncertainty
On the other hand, the US Dollar has managed to hold its ground amid mixed developments in global trade relations.
Despite mixed messages from Washington and Beijing, the Dollar remains strong because of overall market confidence. Investors are cautious, but the Dollar still gets support from the broader market outlook.
Moving ahead, the upcoming US economic data, particularly the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report scheduled for later this week, is expected to be a major catalyst for the US Dollar.
Traders are closely watching the labor market figures, which could influence expectations for Federal Reserve policy moves. Despite the uncertainty in global trade relations, the US economy remains relatively resilient, further supporting the USD’s strength.
Therefore, the US Dollar's strength, supported by positive economic data and market confidence, could pressure the GBP/USD pair, potentially pushing the Pound lower as traders adjust to stronger USD expectations.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is attempting a recovery after defending support at $1.1331. Prices are now pushing against the $1.1362 pivot zone, aided by a modest bullish crossover where the price reclaims the 50-EMA ($1.1362).
A clean hourly close above this level opens the path toward $1.1406, with bulls eyeing the higher range.
Candlestick behavior reveals a series of small-bodied candles followed by a bullish engulfing pattern near the pivot, suggesting strengthening momentum.
The RSI reading at 55.98, slightly above the neutral 50 level, indicates a growing bullish bias without being overbought, offering room for further upside.
There is no visible bearish divergence at this stage, reinforcing the upward momentum. Higher lows from the $1.1316 region further validate the emerging bullish structure.
However, $1.1406 remains a key resistance that needs a decisive break for continuation; failure here could trigger profit-taking.
In a broader context, the pattern resembles an ascending triangle, typically a bullish formation, and a break above the horizontal barrier could spark a measured move towards $1.1442.
Traders should monitor for three white soldiers formation or successive bullish candles confirming the breakout strength.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices faced renewed selling pressure on Friday, driven by a positive risk sentiment that undermined the appeal of safe-haven assets.
The precious metal, often seen as a refuge during times of uncertainty, struggled to maintain its value as optimism surrounding trade relations between the US and China gained momentum.
Additionally, the emergence of US Dollar (USD) buying further weighed on Gold prices, adding to the downward momentum for XAU/USD.
US-China Trade Optimism Drags on Safe-Haven Gold
However, the major factor behind the decline in Gold was growing optimism surrounding the US-China trade relations. US President Donald Trump indicated that trade talks between the two largest economies were progressing, raising hopes of a potential de-escalation in the trade war.
This sentiment was further fueled by reports that China might suspend its 125% tariff on some US imports, despite China's Foreign Minister denying any ongoing negotiations. The market optimism regarding a resolution of trade tensions between the two nations has acted as a headwind for the safe-haven Gold price.
Geopolitical Risks and Fed's Rate Cut Expectations Offer Some Support
Despite the positive risk-on sentiment, several factors helped limit the decline in Gold prices. This include geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
The recent missile attack on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, which resulted in multiple casualties, underscored the continued volatility in the region, preventing a sharp drop in Gold prices.
Moreover, the possibility of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) provided some caution before placing further bearish bets on Gold.
The Fed's stance on potential interest rate cuts, as suggested by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, remained a significant factor for market participants.
The prospect of multiple rate cuts by the end of the year kept some traders from betting too heavily against Gold, with investors awaiting further developments on the Fed’s policy actions.
US Dollar Strength Weighs on Gold Prices
On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) garnered some strength, driven by stronger-than-expected US economic data. Notably, the Department of Labor’s report on Initial Jobless Claims showed modest increases to 222,000 for the week ending April 19, indicating a resilient labor market.
Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders surged 9.2% in March, surpassing expectations and adding to the positive tone around the US economy.
These data points provided the USD with upward momentum, further pressuring Gold prices, which are inversely correlated with the USD.
Looking ahead, traders are likely to continue monitoring trade-related developments and broader risk sentiment for short-term trading opportunities in the XAU/USD pair.
In the meantime, the release of the revised Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index and potential updates on US-China trade talks will be key catalysts for market movements.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are under pressure as they flirt with a critical breakdown below the $3,316 support zone, following a textbook lower high rejection around $3,342.
The market is tracing a descending triangle, defined by falling highs and a flat base near $3,314, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The 50-period EMA at $3,367 has turned decisively downward, acting as dynamic resistance, and capping intraday rallies.
A sequence of spinning tops and Doji candles formed along the descending trendline—most recently at $3,342—signals market indecision and exhaustion of buying momentum.
Notably, the failure to breach this zone confirms the pattern of lower highs, supported by a short-lived three white soldiers pattern that reversed into a bearish engulfing candle.
Adding weight to the bearish case is the RSI, which currently sits at 42.41. A clear bearish divergence emerged earlier this week, as prices posted higher highs while RSI made lower highs—often a prelude to deeper pullbacks. A crossover below the 50-level confirms the shift toward downside momentum.
If gold breaks below $3,316 on strong volume, it may open the path to $3,260 and possibly $3,228. Key trendline support drawn from the April 10 low coincides with this confluence zone, making it the next battleground for bulls.
However, a sharp move above $3,357 would invalidate the short setup and could pave the way for a retest of $3,386.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) jumped by 2.03%, reaching 5,484.77, with an intraday high of 5,489.40. The rally was supported by a combination of US-China trade optimism, solid economic data from the US, and growing speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
US-China Trade War De-Escalation Boosts Market Sentiment, Fueling S&P 500 Surge
Investors are increasingly optimistic about the ongoing de-escalation of the US-China trade war. US President Donald Trump recently stated that trade talks between the two nations are underway, raising hopes that tensions may ease soon.
In a further sign of potential improvement, China is reportedly considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports. While China's Foreign Minister downplayed the discussions, the possibility of a trade resolution has provided a significant boost to market sentiment, propelling the S&P 500 higher.
Strong US Economic Data Enhances Investor Confidence
On the economic front, US macro data continues to outperform expectations. The Department of Labor's report revealed that Initial Jobless Claims increased modestly to 222,000 for the week ending April 19, indicating sustained labor market resilience.
Moreover, the Census Bureau reported a remarkable 9.2% surge in Durable Goods Orders for March, exceeding the forecasted 2% increase. Transportation equipment also saw significant growth, rising 27% for the third consecutive month.
These robust economic figures reinforce the belief that the US economy remains in good shape, boosting investor confidence and supporting the S&P 500's upward movement.
Fed Rate Cut Speculation Adds to Market Optimism
Adding further fuel to the market rally is growing speculation that the Federal Reserve could implement rate cuts soon. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack recently suggested that a rate cut as early as June could be on the table if there is clear data supporting the need for such action.
Moreover, Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed his willingness to support rate cuts if tariffs begin to negatively impact the job market. With traders pricing in the possibility of multiple rate cuts by the end of 2025, the outlook for lower borrowing costs has further lifted investor sentiment, contributing to the S&P 500's rise.
Geopolitical Tensions Persist Amid S&P 500's Positive Momentum from US-China Trade and Economic Resilience
Despite the optimism, geopolitical tensions persist, as highlighted by a recent Russian missile attack on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, which resulted in casualties. This ongoing conflict has kept the geopolitical risk premium in play, adding an element of caution for investors.
Nonetheless, the market's focus on US-China trade progress, economic resilience, and Fed policy expectations continues to drive the positive momentum in the S&P 500.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has broken out above a long-standing descending trendline resistance near 5,455, confirming a bullish breakout from a falling wedge pattern. Price action shows a convincing close above the 50-period SMA, now at 5,325, signaling a shift in short-term momentum.
This technical milestone is reinforced by a higher low structure and a fresh bullish engulfing candle that cleared a week-long consolidation range.
RSI stands at 66.25, approaching overbought territory but not yet flashing divergence. This RSI level—paired with the MACD signal line crossing above zero (not shown)—supports the case for further upside.
Momentum has been building gradually since the reversal from 5,102, marked by three white soldiers near the April 19–22 lows—an optimistic reversal signal rarely seen in isolation.
The breakout candle itself is a strong-bodied bullish candle, closing well above resistance without significant upper wicks—often a sign that buyers are confident and in control. If price holds above 5,455, we expect the rally to extend toward 5,579 and eventually test the key resistance at $5,670.
However, a failed retest below 5,453 would invalidate the breakout and expose the index to downside risk back toward the 5,325 support level. In this case, bulls will want to see a defense of the rising trendline from the April lows.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair traded lower near 1.1350 as the US Dollar (USD) gained strength. This was due to increasing optimism about possible improvements in US-China trade relations.
Moreover, the Euro's weakness was also driven by concerns about the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy, with growing speculation that the ECB might cut interest rates soon.
US Dollar Strengthened by Optimism Over US-China Trade Talks
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's value against six major currencies, rebounded from a previous correction near 99.20 and surged back towards 99.65, eyeing the weekly high of around 100.00.
This recovery was driven by optimism in the financial markets that the trade war between the US and China may de-escalate.
Bloomberg reported that China is considering suspending the 125% tariff on US medical equipment and industrial chemicals. US President Donald Trump echoed this sentiment, stating that trade talks with Beijing were progressing positively, and expressing hope that a deal could be reached soon.
Despite these signs of progress, China denied that any significant economic and trade negotiations were taking place. A Chinese spokesperson clarified that the US would need to completely cancel all unilateral tariffs if trade talks were to continue.
These mixed signals from both countries have added to the market’s uncertainty, yet the initial optimism over potential trade de-escalation continues to support the US Dollar’s strength.
Euro Under Pressure Amid ECB Concerns on Inflation and Economic Outlook
On the Eurozone front, the Euro came under pressure as concerns about the ECB’s monetary policy outlook mounted. ECB policymakers have expressed increasing worry about the region’s economic prospects, particularly the risk of inflation undershooting the central bank’s 2% target.
Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn highlighted these concerns, stating that inflation projections could remain below target in the medium term and suggesting that current circumstances might justify an interest rate cut in June.
Looking ahead, the future direction of EUR/USD will likely be influenced by developments in both US-China trade relations and the ECB’s monetary policy stance.
While the US Dollar could continue to gain strength on optimism surrounding trade talks, concerns about inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone are likely to weigh on the Euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is currently testing the lower boundary of a descending wedge, reinforced by a bullish harmonic pattern (likely a bullish Gartley) forming at point D near $1.13085.
Price action has been contained within the wedge since April 19, and recent support at $1.1309 marks a potential reversal zone. A bullish bias emerges if the pair breaks decisively above $1.13092.
Candle structure supports this view, with buyers repeatedly defending the 1.1300 zone. A clean break above the wedge resistance could push prices toward the 50-hour SMA at $1.13596, followed by the next key level at $1.13962.
The 50 SMA continues to slope downward but is flattening—an early sign of potential crossover reversal if bullish momentum accelerates.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is printing 39.03, rising from oversold territory. While no bullish divergence is confirmed yet, the oscillator’s uptick indicates waning bearish momentum. Additionally, the recent hammer and spinning top near support add to bullish reversal cues.
A failure to hold above $1.13085 may invalidate the bullish setup, exposing the pair to deeper losses toward $1.12788 and ultimately $1.12666.
However, the harmonic completion and wedge compression suggest an imminent volatility breakout, favoring bullish scenarios if volume confirms.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) managed to bounce back after falling for two days and are now trading around $3,335.
However, the recent decline was mainly due to growing worries about the US-China trade conflict. US President Donald Trump mentioned that new tariffs on China could be introduced within the next two to three weeks.
This statement increased uncertainty in global trade, making markets more unstable — and gold was also affected by this volatility.
Gold Price Recovery Driven by Trade Tensions and US Tariff Speculation
The global market sentiment has turned cautious again as President Trump’s comments on Wednesday about potential new tariffs sparked concerns. He suggested that China could face higher tariffs unless trade talks with the US progress well.
This warning of escalating trade tensions has worried investors, driving them to buy gold as a safe-haven asset. The fear that additional tariffs could negatively affect economic growth has boosted gold demand, as it is considered a protective investment during periods of market uncertainty.
In addition, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that Trump’s comments don’t mean the US will reduce tariffs on China without conditions. The government is considering other factors, like non-tariff barriers and Chinese subsidies.
With no clear plan on what the US will do next about tariffs, markets are still uncertain. This uncertainty has led traders to buy gold for safety, pushing its prices up.
Swiss National Bank's Gold Holdings Boost Investor Confidence
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) provided another boost to gold prices, reporting a significant gain from its gold holdings. The SNB’s first-quarter profit of 6.7 billion Swiss Francs, driven by its gold assets, highlights the continued strength of gold in global markets.
This performance shows that gold remains a strong asset during times of market uncertainty, encouraging more investors to turn to the precious metal.
Gold Prices Drop in Shanghai Market as Trade War Fears Resurface, but Strong Buying Interest Persists
Apart from this, the Shanghai gold futures market experienced the biggest one-day drop in gold prices since 2013. Chinese investors, who had been hopeful about a US-China trade deal, quickly started selling to take profits after Trump’s comments brought back fears of a long trade war.
Even though there was a sharp sell-off at first, signs of strong buying interest are still there. Many investors who missed the chance to buy gold at lower prices in April are now getting back in.
Therefore, the sharp drop in Shanghai gold futures triggered a brief sell-off, but strong buying interest emerged as investors, missing April's lower prices, returned to gold, supporting its price recovery.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is struggling to regain bullish momentum after its recent breakdown from the ascending channel. The price was rejected around the $3,345 level — now acting as short-term resistance — and remains below the 50-period SMA ($3,366), indicating that sellers are still in control.
A bearish setup is building below this structure, with a potential continuation toward the $3,290 support zone if $3,345 fails to break.
Recent price action shows lower highs and a rejection candle off the $3,345 resistance zone, forming a potential bearish flag. This aligns with the RSI reading of 45.67, which remains under pressure and confirms weakening upward momentum.
If sellers manage to push the price below $3,345, the next key level to watch will be $3,290, followed by $3,288. A close above $3,390 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a short-term reversal toward $3,411.
Related News
- AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting in May, the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to show resilience.
The AUD/USD pair remains in an upward trend, trading near 0.6389, amid a weaker US Dollar (USD) and mixed US economic data.
AUD/USD Strengthened by Weaker USD and Soft US Economic Data
However, the main driver behind the AUD/USD's upward momentum is the weakness in the US Dollar, which has been pressured by recent mixed US economic data.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book for April revealed signs of a weakening economy, particularly in consumer spending and the labor market, which has started to show signs of softening.
Many US districts reported flat or slightly declining employment levels, which raised concerns about the broader economic outlook.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower, trading near 99.60 after registering gains in previous sessions.
The weaker USD, in combination with disappointing data from the S&P Global PMI for April, which showed a slowdown in both the services and manufacturing sectors, has added downward pressure on the Greenback. These developments have made the USD less attractive, benefiting the Australian Dollar.
Potential RBA Rate Cut Weighs on the AUD, but Economic Resilience Caps Losses
Despite the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut from the RBA at its May 20 meeting, the AUD/USD remains relatively strong. Westpac's forecast of a rate cut comes in response to mixed domestic economic conditions, although recent data suggests continued resilience in the Australian economy.
For instance, Judo Bank’s preliminary data showed that private sector activity expanded for the seventh consecutive month in April, with manufacturing and services both showing growth.
Although the expected rate cut might put some downward pressure on the Australian Dollar, the outlook for the AUD remains supported by Australia's robust economic data compared to the softer US economy.
As traders anticipate further easing from the Fed, with rate cuts possibly extending into the second half of 2023, the AUD continues to hold its ground.
US-China Trade Tensions and Global Sentiment Impacting the AUD/USD
On the flip side, mixed US economic data combined with ongoing US-China trade tensions have made global markets cautious. Although President Trump has shown a willingness to discuss tariffs with China, the trade situation remains uncertain.
This uncertainty has caused market volatility and raised questions about future tariffs. As a result, the US dollar is under pressure, which has given more support to the Australian dollar (AUD).
Looking ahead, despite the potential rate cut by the RBA, the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain supported as long as the US Dollar faces pressure from weaker economic data and global uncertainties.
As markets continue to digest the Fed’s more dovish outlook and the ongoing trade discussions, the Australian Dollar stands to benefit from its relatively stronger economic performance.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is showing signs of stabilizing after defending the ascending trendline support near 0.6349. The price has bounced off this level multiple times and is attempting to hold above it once again, forming a potential higher low. The bullish setup remains valid if the pair sustains above 0.6349.
The 50-period SMA at 0.6393 still acts as immediate dynamic resistance. A break above this level would clear the way toward the 0.6435 resistance. On the downside, any sustained move below 0.6321 would invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest a deeper correction.
The RSI sits at 42.45 — slightly bearish but curling upward, hinting at early recovery momentum. A close above 0.6395 would confirm short-term bullish strength, while failure to reclaim the 50-SMA could lead to range-bound trading.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Thursday, the USD/JPY currency pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing resistance around the 142.39 level.
However, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained strength amid renewed safe-haven demand, driven by global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
While the Fed continues tightening, the BoJ maintains its accommodative stance, supporting JPY demand and putting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Geopolitical Uncertainty and Trade Concerns Drive JPY’s Safe-Haven Demand
However, the recent developments in US-China trade relations have been a key factor supporting the JPY's safe-haven appeal. US President Donald Trump's remarks on tariffs have dampened optimism for a quick resolution to the trade standoff. Trump hinted that the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports might be reduced significantly in the future.
Nevertheless, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent contradicted earlier reports, suggesting that the White House might await China's move before making any tariff adjustments. This uncertainty has contributed to a renewed demand for the JPY, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency.
Moreover, Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, raised concerns about the negative impact of US tariffs on market stability. Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, will visit the US on April 30 to discuss the tariffs further.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also mentioned the possibility of policy changes if the tariffs harm Japan's economic growth, highlighting the risks to the country’s economy.
Diverging Central Bank Policies Weigh on USD/JPY Pair
Therefore, the divergence between the Fed's dovish stance and the BoJ's more hawkish outlook has created a significant policy gap, further pressuring the USD/JPY pair.
Market expectations for the Fed to cut rates multiple times this year have weighed heavily on the US Dollar, limiting its ability to capitalize on recent recovery gains.
Traders are pricing in the possibility of a rate-cut cycle beginning as soon as June, with more cuts expected by year-end. This dovish outlook contrasts sharply with the BoJ’s stance, which remains focused on tightening policy to address inflation concerns.
Japan's inflation has remained persistently above the BoJ's 2% target, and traders are increasingly convinced that the BoJ will raise interest rates in 2025.
Moving ahead, traders turn their attention to the US economic calendar, upcoming data such as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Existing Home Sales will be closely monitored for further clues on the Fed's future actions.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY continues to hold within a rising price channel after bouncing off the 141.57 support. Price is currently testing a confluence zone marked by the 50-period SMA (142.59) and previous resistance-turned-support at 142.58. A breakout above this level could open the door toward 144.29 in the near term.
The pair has also breached the descending trendline from the March high, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. RSI at 59.27 supports the bullish outlook, as it remains above the 50 threshold, suggesting buyers are still in control. However, traders should monitor for potential rejection around the channel top.
Should price drop below 141.57, the bullish structure would weaken, exposing 140.19 as the next support level.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025