EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair traded lower near 1.1350 as the US Dollar (USD) gained strength. This was due to increasing optimism about possible improvements in US-China trade relations.
Moreover, the Euro's weakness was also driven by concerns about the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy, with growing speculation that the ECB might cut interest rates soon.
US Dollar Strengthened by Optimism Over US-China Trade Talks
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback's value against six major currencies, rebounded from a previous correction near 99.20 and surged back towards 99.65, eyeing the weekly high of around 100.00.
This recovery was driven by optimism in the financial markets that the trade war between the US and China may de-escalate.
Bloomberg reported that China is considering suspending the 125% tariff on US medical equipment and industrial chemicals. US President Donald Trump echoed this sentiment, stating that trade talks with Beijing were progressing positively, and expressing hope that a deal could be reached soon.
Despite these signs of progress, China denied that any significant economic and trade negotiations were taking place. A Chinese spokesperson clarified that the US would need to completely cancel all unilateral tariffs if trade talks were to continue.
These mixed signals from both countries have added to the market’s uncertainty, yet the initial optimism over potential trade de-escalation continues to support the US Dollar’s strength.
Euro Under Pressure Amid ECB Concerns on Inflation and Economic Outlook
On the Eurozone front, the Euro came under pressure as concerns about the ECB’s monetary policy outlook mounted. ECB policymakers have expressed increasing worry about the region’s economic prospects, particularly the risk of inflation undershooting the central bank’s 2% target.
Finnish central bank governor Olli Rehn highlighted these concerns, stating that inflation projections could remain below target in the medium term and suggesting that current circumstances might justify an interest rate cut in June.
Looking ahead, the future direction of EUR/USD will likely be influenced by developments in both US-China trade relations and the ECB’s monetary policy stance.
While the US Dollar could continue to gain strength on optimism surrounding trade talks, concerns about inflation and economic growth in the Eurozone are likely to weigh on the Euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is currently testing the lower boundary of a descending wedge, reinforced by a bullish harmonic pattern (likely a bullish Gartley) forming at point D near $1.13085.
Price action has been contained within the wedge since April 19, and recent support at $1.1309 marks a potential reversal zone. A bullish bias emerges if the pair breaks decisively above $1.13092.
Candle structure supports this view, with buyers repeatedly defending the 1.1300 zone. A clean break above the wedge resistance could push prices toward the 50-hour SMA at $1.13596, followed by the next key level at $1.13962.
The 50 SMA continues to slope downward but is flattening—an early sign of potential crossover reversal if bullish momentum accelerates.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is printing 39.03, rising from oversold territory. While no bullish divergence is confirmed yet, the oscillator’s uptick indicates waning bearish momentum. Additionally, the recent hammer and spinning top near support add to bullish reversal cues.
A failure to hold above $1.13085 may invalidate the bullish setup, exposing the pair to deeper losses toward $1.12788 and ultimately $1.12666.
However, the harmonic completion and wedge compression suggest an imminent volatility breakout, favoring bullish scenarios if volume confirms.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices faced renewed selling pressure on Friday, driven by a positive risk sentiment that undermined the appeal of safe-haven assets.
The precious metal, often seen as a refuge during times of uncertainty, struggled to maintain its value as optimism surrounding trade relations between the US and China gained momentum.
Additionally, the emergence of US Dollar (USD) buying further weighed on Gold prices, adding to the downward momentum for XAU/USD.
US-China Trade Optimism Drags on Safe-Haven Gold
However, the major factor behind the decline in Gold was growing optimism surrounding the US-China trade relations. US President Donald Trump indicated that trade talks between the two largest economies were progressing, raising hopes of a potential de-escalation in the trade war.
This sentiment was further fueled by reports that China might suspend its 125% tariff on some US imports, despite China's Foreign Minister denying any ongoing negotiations. The market optimism regarding a resolution of trade tensions between the two nations has acted as a headwind for the safe-haven Gold price.
Geopolitical Risks and Fed's Rate Cut Expectations Offer Some Support
Despite the positive risk-on sentiment, several factors helped limit the decline in Gold prices. This include geopolitical risks, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
The recent missile attack on Ukraine’s capital Kyiv, which resulted in multiple casualties, underscored the continued volatility in the region, preventing a sharp drop in Gold prices.
Moreover, the possibility of aggressive monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) provided some caution before placing further bearish bets on Gold.
The Fed's stance on potential interest rate cuts, as suggested by Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, remained a significant factor for market participants.
The prospect of multiple rate cuts by the end of the year kept some traders from betting too heavily against Gold, with investors awaiting further developments on the Fed’s policy actions.
US Dollar Strength Weighs on Gold Prices
On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) garnered some strength, driven by stronger-than-expected US economic data. Notably, the Department of Labor’s report on Initial Jobless Claims showed modest increases to 222,000 for the week ending April 19, indicating a resilient labor market.
Meanwhile, Durable Goods Orders surged 9.2% in March, surpassing expectations and adding to the positive tone around the US economy.
These data points provided the USD with upward momentum, further pressuring Gold prices, which are inversely correlated with the USD.
Looking ahead, traders are likely to continue monitoring trade-related developments and broader risk sentiment for short-term trading opportunities in the XAU/USD pair.
In the meantime, the release of the revised Michigan US Consumer Sentiment Index and potential updates on US-China trade talks will be key catalysts for market movements.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are under pressure as they flirt with a critical breakdown below the $3,316 support zone, following a textbook lower high rejection around $3,342.
The market is tracing a descending triangle, defined by falling highs and a flat base near $3,314, reinforcing bearish sentiment. The 50-period EMA at $3,367 has turned decisively downward, acting as dynamic resistance, and capping intraday rallies.
A sequence of spinning tops and Doji candles formed along the descending trendline—most recently at $3,342—signals market indecision and exhaustion of buying momentum.
Notably, the failure to breach this zone confirms the pattern of lower highs, supported by a short-lived three white soldiers pattern that reversed into a bearish engulfing candle.
Adding weight to the bearish case is the RSI, which currently sits at 42.41. A clear bearish divergence emerged earlier this week, as prices posted higher highs while RSI made lower highs—often a prelude to deeper pullbacks. A crossover below the 50-level confirms the shift toward downside momentum.
If gold breaks below $3,316 on strong volume, it may open the path to $3,260 and possibly $3,228. Key trendline support drawn from the April 10 low coincides with this confluence zone, making it the next battleground for bulls.
However, a sharp move above $3,357 would invalidate the short setup and could pave the way for a retest of $3,386.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) jumped by 2.03%, reaching 5,484.77, with an intraday high of 5,489.40. The rally was supported by a combination of US-China trade optimism, solid economic data from the US, and growing speculation about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
US-China Trade War De-Escalation Boosts Market Sentiment, Fueling S&P 500 Surge
Investors are increasingly optimistic about the ongoing de-escalation of the US-China trade war. US President Donald Trump recently stated that trade talks between the two nations are underway, raising hopes that tensions may ease soon.
In a further sign of potential improvement, China is reportedly considering suspending its 125% tariff on some US imports. While China's Foreign Minister downplayed the discussions, the possibility of a trade resolution has provided a significant boost to market sentiment, propelling the S&P 500 higher.
Strong US Economic Data Enhances Investor Confidence
On the economic front, US macro data continues to outperform expectations. The Department of Labor's report revealed that Initial Jobless Claims increased modestly to 222,000 for the week ending April 19, indicating sustained labor market resilience.
Moreover, the Census Bureau reported a remarkable 9.2% surge in Durable Goods Orders for March, exceeding the forecasted 2% increase. Transportation equipment also saw significant growth, rising 27% for the third consecutive month.
These robust economic figures reinforce the belief that the US economy remains in good shape, boosting investor confidence and supporting the S&P 500's upward movement.
Fed Rate Cut Speculation Adds to Market Optimism
Adding further fuel to the market rally is growing speculation that the Federal Reserve could implement rate cuts soon. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack recently suggested that a rate cut as early as June could be on the table if there is clear data supporting the need for such action.
Moreover, Fed Governor Christopher Waller expressed his willingness to support rate cuts if tariffs begin to negatively impact the job market. With traders pricing in the possibility of multiple rate cuts by the end of 2025, the outlook for lower borrowing costs has further lifted investor sentiment, contributing to the S&P 500's rise.
Geopolitical Tensions Persist Amid S&P 500's Positive Momentum from US-China Trade and Economic Resilience
Despite the optimism, geopolitical tensions persist, as highlighted by a recent Russian missile attack on Ukraine's capital, Kyiv, which resulted in casualties. This ongoing conflict has kept the geopolitical risk premium in play, adding an element of caution for investors.
Nonetheless, the market's focus on US-China trade progress, economic resilience, and Fed policy expectations continues to drive the positive momentum in the S&P 500.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 has broken out above a long-standing descending trendline resistance near 5,455, confirming a bullish breakout from a falling wedge pattern. Price action shows a convincing close above the 50-period SMA, now at 5,325, signaling a shift in short-term momentum.
This technical milestone is reinforced by a higher low structure and a fresh bullish engulfing candle that cleared a week-long consolidation range.
RSI stands at 66.25, approaching overbought territory but not yet flashing divergence. This RSI level—paired with the MACD signal line crossing above zero (not shown)—supports the case for further upside.
Momentum has been building gradually since the reversal from 5,102, marked by three white soldiers near the April 19–22 lows—an optimistic reversal signal rarely seen in isolation.
The breakout candle itself is a strong-bodied bullish candle, closing well above resistance without significant upper wicks—often a sign that buyers are confident and in control. If price holds above 5,455, we expect the rally to extend toward 5,579 and eventually test the key resistance at $5,670.
However, a failed retest below 5,453 would invalidate the breakout and expose the index to downside risk back toward the 5,325 support level. In this case, bulls will want to see a defense of the rising trendline from the April lows.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 25, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) managed to bounce back after falling for two days and are now trading around $3,335.
However, the recent decline was mainly due to growing worries about the US-China trade conflict. US President Donald Trump mentioned that new tariffs on China could be introduced within the next two to three weeks.
This statement increased uncertainty in global trade, making markets more unstable — and gold was also affected by this volatility.
Gold Price Recovery Driven by Trade Tensions and US Tariff Speculation
The global market sentiment has turned cautious again as President Trump’s comments on Wednesday about potential new tariffs sparked concerns. He suggested that China could face higher tariffs unless trade talks with the US progress well.
This warning of escalating trade tensions has worried investors, driving them to buy gold as a safe-haven asset. The fear that additional tariffs could negatively affect economic growth has boosted gold demand, as it is considered a protective investment during periods of market uncertainty.
In addition, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent clarified that Trump’s comments don’t mean the US will reduce tariffs on China without conditions. The government is considering other factors, like non-tariff barriers and Chinese subsidies.
With no clear plan on what the US will do next about tariffs, markets are still uncertain. This uncertainty has led traders to buy gold for safety, pushing its prices up.
Swiss National Bank's Gold Holdings Boost Investor Confidence
Meanwhile, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) provided another boost to gold prices, reporting a significant gain from its gold holdings. The SNB’s first-quarter profit of 6.7 billion Swiss Francs, driven by its gold assets, highlights the continued strength of gold in global markets.
This performance shows that gold remains a strong asset during times of market uncertainty, encouraging more investors to turn to the precious metal.
Gold Prices Drop in Shanghai Market as Trade War Fears Resurface, but Strong Buying Interest Persists
Apart from this, the Shanghai gold futures market experienced the biggest one-day drop in gold prices since 2013. Chinese investors, who had been hopeful about a US-China trade deal, quickly started selling to take profits after Trump’s comments brought back fears of a long trade war.
Even though there was a sharp sell-off at first, signs of strong buying interest are still there. Many investors who missed the chance to buy gold at lower prices in April are now getting back in.
Therefore, the sharp drop in Shanghai gold futures triggered a brief sell-off, but strong buying interest emerged as investors, missing April's lower prices, returned to gold, supporting its price recovery.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is struggling to regain bullish momentum after its recent breakdown from the ascending channel. The price was rejected around the $3,345 level — now acting as short-term resistance — and remains below the 50-period SMA ($3,366), indicating that sellers are still in control.
A bearish setup is building below this structure, with a potential continuation toward the $3,290 support zone if $3,345 fails to break.
Recent price action shows lower highs and a rejection candle off the $3,345 resistance zone, forming a potential bearish flag. This aligns with the RSI reading of 45.67, which remains under pressure and confirms weakening upward momentum.
If sellers manage to push the price below $3,345, the next key level to watch will be $3,290, followed by $3,288. A close above $3,390 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a short-term reversal toward $3,411.
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- AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Despite expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) might cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its upcoming meeting in May, the Australian Dollar (AUD) continues to show resilience.
The AUD/USD pair remains in an upward trend, trading near 0.6389, amid a weaker US Dollar (USD) and mixed US economic data.
AUD/USD Strengthened by Weaker USD and Soft US Economic Data
However, the main driver behind the AUD/USD's upward momentum is the weakness in the US Dollar, which has been pressured by recent mixed US economic data.
The Federal Reserve's (Fed) Beige Book for April revealed signs of a weakening economy, particularly in consumer spending and the labor market, which has started to show signs of softening.
Many US districts reported flat or slightly declining employment levels, which raised concerns about the broader economic outlook.
At the same time, the US Dollar Index (DXY) edged lower, trading near 99.60 after registering gains in previous sessions.
The weaker USD, in combination with disappointing data from the S&P Global PMI for April, which showed a slowdown in both the services and manufacturing sectors, has added downward pressure on the Greenback. These developments have made the USD less attractive, benefiting the Australian Dollar.
Potential RBA Rate Cut Weighs on the AUD, but Economic Resilience Caps Losses
Despite the anticipated 25 basis point rate cut from the RBA at its May 20 meeting, the AUD/USD remains relatively strong. Westpac's forecast of a rate cut comes in response to mixed domestic economic conditions, although recent data suggests continued resilience in the Australian economy.
For instance, Judo Bank’s preliminary data showed that private sector activity expanded for the seventh consecutive month in April, with manufacturing and services both showing growth.
Although the expected rate cut might put some downward pressure on the Australian Dollar, the outlook for the AUD remains supported by Australia's robust economic data compared to the softer US economy.
As traders anticipate further easing from the Fed, with rate cuts possibly extending into the second half of 2023, the AUD continues to hold its ground.
US-China Trade Tensions and Global Sentiment Impacting the AUD/USD
On the flip side, mixed US economic data combined with ongoing US-China trade tensions have made global markets cautious. Although President Trump has shown a willingness to discuss tariffs with China, the trade situation remains uncertain.
This uncertainty has caused market volatility and raised questions about future tariffs. As a result, the US dollar is under pressure, which has given more support to the Australian dollar (AUD).
Looking ahead, despite the potential rate cut by the RBA, the AUD/USD pair is likely to remain supported as long as the US Dollar faces pressure from weaker economic data and global uncertainties.
As markets continue to digest the Fed’s more dovish outlook and the ongoing trade discussions, the Australian Dollar stands to benefit from its relatively stronger economic performance.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is showing signs of stabilizing after defending the ascending trendline support near 0.6349. The price has bounced off this level multiple times and is attempting to hold above it once again, forming a potential higher low. The bullish setup remains valid if the pair sustains above 0.6349.
The 50-period SMA at 0.6393 still acts as immediate dynamic resistance. A break above this level would clear the way toward the 0.6435 resistance. On the downside, any sustained move below 0.6321 would invalidate the bullish outlook and suggest a deeper correction.
The RSI sits at 42.45 — slightly bearish but curling upward, hinting at early recovery momentum. A close above 0.6395 would confirm short-term bullish strength, while failure to reclaim the 50-SMA could lead to range-bound trading.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Thursday, the USD/JPY currency pair struggled to maintain its upward momentum, facing resistance around the 142.39 level.
However, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained strength amid renewed safe-haven demand, driven by global uncertainties, including geopolitical tensions and the policy divergence between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
While the Fed continues tightening, the BoJ maintains its accommodative stance, supporting JPY demand and putting downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
Geopolitical Uncertainty and Trade Concerns Drive JPY’s Safe-Haven Demand
However, the recent developments in US-China trade relations have been a key factor supporting the JPY's safe-haven appeal. US President Donald Trump's remarks on tariffs have dampened optimism for a quick resolution to the trade standoff. Trump hinted that the 145% tariffs on Chinese imports might be reduced significantly in the future.
Nevertheless, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent contradicted earlier reports, suggesting that the White House might await China's move before making any tariff adjustments. This uncertainty has contributed to a renewed demand for the JPY, traditionally viewed as a safe-haven currency.
Moreover, Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, raised concerns about the negative impact of US tariffs on market stability. Japan’s Economic Revitalization Minister, Ryosei Akazawa, will visit the US on April 30 to discuss the tariffs further.
BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda also mentioned the possibility of policy changes if the tariffs harm Japan's economic growth, highlighting the risks to the country’s economy.
Diverging Central Bank Policies Weigh on USD/JPY Pair
Therefore, the divergence between the Fed's dovish stance and the BoJ's more hawkish outlook has created a significant policy gap, further pressuring the USD/JPY pair.
Market expectations for the Fed to cut rates multiple times this year have weighed heavily on the US Dollar, limiting its ability to capitalize on recent recovery gains.
Traders are pricing in the possibility of a rate-cut cycle beginning as soon as June, with more cuts expected by year-end. This dovish outlook contrasts sharply with the BoJ’s stance, which remains focused on tightening policy to address inflation concerns.
Japan's inflation has remained persistently above the BoJ's 2% target, and traders are increasingly convinced that the BoJ will raise interest rates in 2025.
Moving ahead, traders turn their attention to the US economic calendar, upcoming data such as Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and Existing Home Sales will be closely monitored for further clues on the Fed's future actions.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY continues to hold within a rising price channel after bouncing off the 141.57 support. Price is currently testing a confluence zone marked by the 50-period SMA (142.59) and previous resistance-turned-support at 142.58. A breakout above this level could open the door toward 144.29 in the near term.
The pair has also breached the descending trendline from the March high, indicating a shift in short-term momentum. RSI at 59.27 supports the bullish outlook, as it remains above the 50 threshold, suggesting buyers are still in control. However, traders should monitor for potential rejection around the channel top.
Should price drop below 141.57, the bullish structure would weaken, exposing 140.19 as the next support level.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 24, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 23, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have extended their decline after failing to hold above the psychological $3,500 mark—a fresh record high.
The precious metal has now fallen for a second consecutive day, retreating to around the $3,300 level amid waning safe-haven demand and shifting market dynamics.
Gold Price Faces Pressure from Easing Geopolitical Tensions
However, the major factor behind the recent decline in gold prices is the easing of geopolitical tensions. US President Donald Trump’s administration hinted at the possibility of de-escalating the trade dispute with China, which has been a major driver of global uncertainty.
Meanwhile, Trump backtracked on his threats to dismiss Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, signaling a more stable political outlook.
These moves helped ease market concerns, boosting investor confidence and diminishing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset.
Apart from this, the upbeat comments from Trump’s administration officials regarding the US-China trade talks, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s positive stance on peace initiatives in Ukraine, have helped calm global tensions.
These developments have resulted in profit-taking in gold, following its recent record highs, as investors shifted to riskier assets.
Gold Prices Weighed Down by USD Recovery and Fed's Rate Cut Speculation
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar maintained its bullish trend and remained strong. Although, the gains could be fade due to ongoing concerns about the US economy and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve may ease policy aggressively.
Many investors now believe the Fed could restart its rate-cutting cycle in June, with some even expecting at least three rate cuts by the end of the year.
Furthermore, the market's focus has shifted to the upcoming release of global flash PMIs, which are expected to provide fresh insights into global economic health and influence investor sentiment further. If the data signals weaker economic conditions, gold may see renewed support, even as geopolitical tensions ease.
Investor Caution as Geopolitical Risks Fade and Fed Actions Loom
Despite the recent slide in gold, investors remain cautious about declaring the end of gold’s upward trend. The ongoing speculation surrounding the Fed’s potential rate cuts continues to support gold’s allure. Moreover, while easing geopolitical tensions have contributed to the retreat, concerns about the health of the global economy and the Fed's actions could offer a potential tailwind for the precious metal.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold has broken below its rising channel and is showing signs of trend exhaustion after failing to hold above the $3,370 support zone. The recent break under both the ascending channel support and the 50-period SMA ($3,368) confirms a short-term bearish shift. Price action is now targeting the next support area around $3,273, provided the bearish pressure sustains.
The rejection near $3,453 followed by consecutive bearish candlesticks points to a strong reversal pattern. This is further supported by a drop in the RSI, now at 36.00, which reflects increasing downside momentum and puts buyers on the defensive.
Sellers are likely to remain in control below $3,370. A daily close beneath this threshold confirms the breakdown. The next area of interest for sellers is the $3,273 support, while any recovery above $3,433 would invalidate the short setup and suggest bullish reentry.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 23, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the mid-European session on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair faced renewed downside pressure, slipping below the 1.3300 mark following disappointing UK PMI figures.
However, the British Pound struggled to find support after weak data fueled fears of an economic slowdown and raised the likelihood of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut at the May meeting.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar remained volatile as markets reacted to mixed signals surrounding trade policy and Federal Reserve expectations.
GBP/USD Falls After UK PMI Miss and Services Sector Weakness
On the data front, the latest UK S&P Global/CIPS PMI data triggered sharp selling in the Pound Sterling, as both the services and manufacturing sectors contracted unexpectedly.
The Composite PMI dropped to 48.2 in April, down from 51.5 in March and well below forecasts of 50.4. This marked the first contraction in overall business activity since October 2023.
The decline was largely driven by a steep fall in the Services PMI, which fell to 48.9 versus expectations of 51.3. Hence, the weak domestic demand and global economic uncertainty weighed heavily on output.
Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI also dropped further into contraction, registering 44.0 – in line with expectations but down from 44.9 previously.
BoE Rate Cut Bets Rise Amid Slowing Inflation and Wage Growth
As a result, the weak PMI data added to growing speculation that the BoE may begin easing monetary policy as soon as its May meeting. Market participants are increasingly pricing in a rate cut due to the recent slowdown in inflation and wage growth.
UK pay awards have risen by only 3% for the fourth consecutive quarter, marking the slowest pace since December 2021. Investors are now closely watching UK Retail Sales data for March, set to be released Friday. Therefore, the decline of 0.4% is anticipated, which could further reinforce the case for a rate cut.
US Dollar Volatile Amid Trade Talk Optimism and Fed Uncertainty
Across the Atlantic, the US dollar failed to sustain its bullish rally and lost some of its early gains despite easing tensions in the US-China trade relationship and reassurances from President Donald Trump regarding Federal Reserve leadership.
The US Dollar Index fell back toward 99.00 after touching recent highs, with investors digesting Trump's comments on ongoing trade discussions and his softened stance on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Therefore, the US Dollar's pullback, fueled by easing US-China tensions and Trump's comments on the Fed, provided some relief for the GBP/USD pair, helping it recover from early losses and stabilize.
Looking ahead, market participants are eyeing the flash US S&P Global PMI data for April during the North American session, which could influence Fed rate expectations and impact the USD outlook (edited)
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD has found support around the 1.3291 level following a sharp pullback from its recent highs near 1.3415.
The pair is now attempting to regain footing above the 50-period SMA (1.3318), which could serve as a pivot for bullish continuation. Price action suggests potential for a rebound if buyers maintain control above the 1.3291 trigger level.
A bullish engulfing candle has formed near the rising trendline and 50-SMA support zone, reinforcing a potential reversal. This pattern gains significance with RSI recovering from 45.12 — signaling early bullish momentum without entering overbought territory.
If the pair holds above 1.3291, the upside target sits at 1.3395. A break below 1.3228 would invalidate the setup and expose GBP/USD to deeper correction levels.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 23, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remains under pressure below the 1.1400 mark during the European trading session. However, the reason for its bearish rally can be linked to the stronger US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD’s value against six major currencies, has climbed back to around 99.30 from its low of 98.00.
However, the strength of the Greenback can be attributed to several factors, including improved market sentiment towards the USD following US President Donald Trump’s statements and ongoing economic concerns in the Eurozone.
US Dollar Strengthens as Trump Expresses Optimism and Safeguards Fed’s Autonomy
On the US front, the US Dollar has regained traction as President Donald Trump expressed confidence in finalizing a trade deal with China. His remarks on trade negotiations, though not providing details about potential tariff reductions, helped to stabilize the market sentiment.
Furthermore, Trump's statement about not intending to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell despite previous criticisms provided a sense of reassurance.
This has alleviated some concerns over the US Dollar’s credibility, which had been under pressure due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and the Fed’s monetary stance.
However, Trump also voiced his frustration with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, creating a tug-of-war between the executive and the central bank. Despite this, the overall sentiment remains positive for the USD, benefiting from its safe-haven status amid global uncertainties.
Euro Under Pressure Amid Weak Economic Data and ECB Rate Cut Speculations
On the flip side, the Euro has come under pressure as economic data from the Eurozone paints a grim picture. Preliminary April data from Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) revealed a decline in business activity, with the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 50.1 from 50.9 in March.
Hence, the reading below 50.0 would indicate contraction, though the Eurozone economy has just avoided this threshold. Notably, the Service PMI dropped unexpectedly to 49.7, showing that the service sector is weakening more than anticipated.
The Manufacturing PMI, however, performed slightly better, coming in at 48.7, signaling slower-than-expected contraction.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on the Euro
As a result of the weaker economic performance and persistent inflation concerns, market participants are growing increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) may opt for another rate cut in its upcoming June policy meeting.
ECB President Christine Lagarde recently mentioned that inflation might return to 2% by the end of the year, which has led to more speculation about rate cuts. Although Lagarde didn't confirm this directly, the chances of further rate cuts are putting pressure on the Euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has shifted to a bearish bias after failing to hold above the 50-period SMA at 1.1431. The pair has broken below key support at 1.1403, which is now acting as short-term resistance.
This breakdown, paired with the rejection from the $1.1450 zone, suggests bearish continuation if price sustains below the 1.1403 pivot.
The RSI reading at 39.25 confirms momentum has turned bearish, with room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.
The recent bearish candlestick pattern (a strong red candle closing below the 50-SMA and horizontal support) provides additional confirmation of the trend shift.
The pair is now eyeing a retest of the rising trendline support near 1.1309. If that breaks, the next support lies at 1.1265. On the flip side, a close above 1.1451 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a possible rebound.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 22, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to extend its previous upward rally and lost traction, falling below the 0.6400 level. This was mainly due to growing concerns about economic uncertainty in the US and rising global trade tensions.
The Australian Dollar had previously gained strength against the US Dollar, but the market was rattled by fresh criticism of the Federal Reserve from US President Donald Trump. This added to fears about the Fed's independence, leading to increased market unease.
US Economic Uncertainty and Fed's Independence Concerns Impact USD
Global market sentiment has turned cautious following comments from White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett. He revealed that President Trump was considering whether he had the authority to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Trump's public criticism of Powell for his reluctance to lower interest rates raised concerns about potential political interference in the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process.
On his Truth Social platform, Trump warned that if Powell did not act swiftly to cut interest rates, the US economy could face a slowdown.
These remarks heightened fears that the US Dollar could be subjected to political pressure, contributing to its decline.
Apart from this, the situation was also complicated by the ongoing deadlock in global trade talks. While the US imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, there were signs of potential progress, with Trump suggesting a trade deal might be possible in the coming weeks.
However, the uncertainty surrounding trade relations and tariffs continued to weigh on market confidence, putting additional downward pressure on the US Dollar.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding US economic policies and trade tensions has weakened the US dollar, boosting the AUD/USD pair as investors seek safer, higher-yielding assets like the Australian Dollar.
Trade Tensions and Global Economic Outlook Weigh on Market Sentiment
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, continued its downward slide, trading near 98.10. This decline was driven by growing concerns over US economic uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions with China.
Trump’s suggestion to investigate critical mineral imports added to fears of slower economic growth and rising inflation, further weakening sentiment towards the US Dollar.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on monetary policy weighed on the USD. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the challenges the central bank could face in balancing economic growth and inflation, increasing the risk of stagflation. This uncertainty around the Fed’s actions has left markets uneasy, putting further downward pressure on the US Dollar.
Therefore, the decline in the US Dollar, driven by economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and the Fed's cautious stance, has supported the Australian Dollar, pushing the AUD/USD pair higher as investors seek alternatives.
AUD Supported by Global Economic Uncertainty and Domestic Resilience
On the other hand, the Australian Dollar has gained slight support as previously released mixed Australian data kept investors hopeful. While Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in March, slightly lower than expected, the employment report showed a positive increase of 32.2K jobs.
However, the Westpac Leading Index, which tracks economic momentum, dropped to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February, suggesting slower economic growth in Australia.
Despite these mixed signals, the Australian dollar has found some support due to global economic uncertainty and expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may hold off on further rate cuts.
RBA meeting minutes indicated there is no immediate decision on monetary policy changes, with both risks and opportunities facing the Australian economy.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD remains in a bullish structure, trading within an ascending channel and holding above the 50-period SMA at 0.6385. The pair recently bounced from a confluence support zone near 0.6409 and is currently attempting another push toward the upper channel boundary around 0.6452.
The technical setup remains constructive as long as price sustains above the 0.6409 breakout level, now acting as immediate support. The RSI stands at 61.63 — neutral to bullish — showing potential for continued upward momentum without being overbought.
A sustained break above 0.6452 could expose the next resistance at 0.6471, while failure to hold above 0.6409 may lead to a drop toward the 0.6387–0.6385 support area.
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