AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 22, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to extend its previous upward rally and lost traction, falling below the 0.6400 level. This was mainly due to growing concerns about economic uncertainty in the US and rising global trade tensions.
The Australian Dollar had previously gained strength against the US Dollar, but the market was rattled by fresh criticism of the Federal Reserve from US President Donald Trump. This added to fears about the Fed's independence, leading to increased market unease.
US Economic Uncertainty and Fed's Independence Concerns Impact USD
Global market sentiment has turned cautious following comments from White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett. He revealed that President Trump was considering whether he had the authority to remove Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Trump's public criticism of Powell for his reluctance to lower interest rates raised concerns about potential political interference in the Federal Reserve’s decision-making process.
On his Truth Social platform, Trump warned that if Powell did not act swiftly to cut interest rates, the US economy could face a slowdown.
These remarks heightened fears that the US Dollar could be subjected to political pressure, contributing to its decline.
Apart from this, the situation was also complicated by the ongoing deadlock in global trade talks. While the US imposed heavy tariffs on Chinese imports, there were signs of potential progress, with Trump suggesting a trade deal might be possible in the coming weeks.
However, the uncertainty surrounding trade relations and tariffs continued to weigh on market confidence, putting additional downward pressure on the US Dollar.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding US economic policies and trade tensions has weakened the US dollar, boosting the AUD/USD pair as investors seek safer, higher-yielding assets like the Australian Dollar.
Trade Tensions and Global Economic Outlook Weigh on Market Sentiment
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the Greenback against six major currencies, continued its downward slide, trading near 98.10. This decline was driven by growing concerns over US economic uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions with China.
Trump’s suggestion to investigate critical mineral imports added to fears of slower economic growth and rising inflation, further weakening sentiment towards the US Dollar.
Moreover, the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance on monetary policy weighed on the USD. Fed Chair Jerome Powell highlighted the challenges the central bank could face in balancing economic growth and inflation, increasing the risk of stagflation. This uncertainty around the Fed’s actions has left markets uneasy, putting further downward pressure on the US Dollar.
Therefore, the decline in the US Dollar, driven by economic uncertainty, trade tensions, and the Fed's cautious stance, has supported the Australian Dollar, pushing the AUD/USD pair higher as investors seek alternatives.
AUD Supported by Global Economic Uncertainty and Domestic Resilience
On the other hand, the Australian Dollar has gained slight support as previously released mixed Australian data kept investors hopeful. While Australia’s unemployment rate rose to 4.1% in March, slightly lower than expected, the employment report showed a positive increase of 32.2K jobs.
However, the Westpac Leading Index, which tracks economic momentum, dropped to 0.6% in March from 0.9% in February, suggesting slower economic growth in Australia.
Despite these mixed signals, the Australian dollar has found some support due to global economic uncertainty and expectations that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may hold off on further rate cuts.
RBA meeting minutes indicated there is no immediate decision on monetary policy changes, with both risks and opportunities facing the Australian economy.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD remains in a bullish structure, trading within an ascending channel and holding above the 50-period SMA at 0.6385. The pair recently bounced from a confluence support zone near 0.6409 and is currently attempting another push toward the upper channel boundary around 0.6452.
The technical setup remains constructive as long as price sustains above the 0.6409 breakout level, now acting as immediate support. The RSI stands at 61.63 — neutral to bullish — showing potential for continued upward momentum without being overbought.
A sustained break above 0.6452 could expose the next resistance at 0.6471, while failure to hold above 0.6409 may lead to a drop toward the 0.6387–0.6385 support area.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 22, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 22, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the Gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend and remained well bid above $3,450. Although the metal slightly retreated from its recent all-time high of $3,500, it continues to show strong demand as traders take a pause after recent gains, which pushed the market into short-term overbought territory. Despite this minor pullback, gold maintains a positive outlook due to ongoing global uncertainties.
However, the main reasons behind this upward momentum is the continued concern over US President Donald Trump's tariffs, which are creating worries about global economic stability. These trade tensions have led investors to seek safer investment options like gold.
Moreover, the persistent geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine is adding to the uncertainty, further boosting the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset. As a result, gold prices remain supported by a mix of economic and political risks, keeping the bullish bias intact.
Gold Price Surge Driven by US Tariff Fears and Trade Policy Uncertainty
On the US front, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariff policies continues to play a major role in pushing gold prices higher. His frequent changes and unclear position on trade tariffs have created concerns about the future of the US economy. This has weakened investor confidence in the US Dollar (USD), which typically boosts demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
In addition, President Trump's ongoing criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell has raised questions about the independence of the US central bank. Trump has been calling for lower interest rates and has shown clear frustration with Powell's decisions. These political pressures on the Fed have added to market uncertainty, encouraging more investors to move their money into gold for protection.
Another important factor supporting gold prices is the market's expectation of a more dovish approach from the Federal Reserve. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are expecting a 25-basis-point interest rate cut in June, with the possibility of at least three more cuts in 2025. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive.
Therefore, the combination of economic instability, political tension, and expectations of lower rates is driving steady demand for the precious metal.
Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Uncertainty Continue to Drive Gold Demand
In addition to trade policy uncertainty, escalating geopolitical tensions have provided additional support for gold. Recently, Russian forces launched a series of drone and missile attacks on Ukraine after a short ceasefire. These geopolitical events have heightened market fears, driving demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Traders are now eyeing upcoming US economic data, including the Richmond Manufacturing Index and the flash PMIs, which could provide further insight into the health of the global economy and potentially affect gold’s price action.
Moving ahead, traders expect gold prices to stay supported due to ongoing trade tensions and rising geopolitical risks. Markets will keep a close watch on updates related to US trade policies, global conflicts, and the Federal Reserve’s next moves to get clues about where gold (XAU/USD) might head next.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to trend higher within a defined ascending channel, recently breaking above the $3,468 resistance and reaching an intraday high near $3,487. The bullish structure remains intact, with price consolidating just below the $3,494 resistance. As long as the $3,468 support level holds, the outlook favors further upside toward the $3,510 target.
The 50-period SMA, currently at $3,332, continues to slope upward, reinforcing bullish momentum. However, the RSI is at 81.23 — firmly in overbought territory — suggesting that some consolidation or a mild pullback could occur before a sustained breakout.
If price maintains above $3,468, bulls could drive the move toward $3,510 and potentially retest the upper channel boundary at $3,519. On the downside, a break below $3,468 would risk a slide to $3,457 and $3,440, where the lower bound of the trade setup sits.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The euro rose to its highest level in over three years on Monday, near $1.1575 against the US dollar as political uncertainty in Washington weighed on the greenback.
This is the latest in a trend reversal for the euro, driven by a broad decline in the US Dollar Index which fell to a three year low near 98.00.
Much of the dollar’s weakness is due to the uncertainty around Federal Reserve leadership. President Donald Trump’s public dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Jerome Powell – including direct suggestions of termination – has raised concerns about the Fed’s independence and the entire US monetary policy framework.
On Friday, Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates despite easing inflationary pressures. “The Fed really owes it to the American people to get interest rates down… If I want him out of there, he’ll be out real fast,” Trump said.
The administration’s economic team, led by adviser Kevin Hassett, has confirmed they are looking into legal ways to remove Powell.
Policy Uncertainty Drives Dollar Down
The market has reacted quickly. Investors are now factoring in the risk of political interference in central banking decisions – a dynamic that undermines one of the key pillars of the dollar’s safe-haven status.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned over the weekend that challenging the Fed’s independence could have long term economic consequences.
In an interview he said: “We should not put ourselves in a situation where monetary independence is in question.” Nations with politically neutral central banks tend to see stronger, more stable economic outcomes.
With eurozone inflation slowing and the ECB being cautious, the big move in EUR/USD is less about the eurozone and more about the decline in US institutions. Traders will now focus on ECB comments and PMI releases this week.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD surged above key resistance near 1.1470, but the pair is now facing selling pressure just below 1.1533 — the recent high.
Price has rejected the upper trendline of the rising channel and is forming a potential bearish setup, especially if it closes below 1.1532. A retracement toward 1.1478 could be underway, aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci support.
The RSI currently stands at 76.04, firmly in overbought territory. This suggests a short-term pullback is likely as bullish momentum cools off.
Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA at 1.1369 continues to trend upward, indicating the medium-term structure remains supportive of dips being bought — though some profit-taking is expected in the near term.
If the pair breaks below 1.1532, bearish confirmation could open the door to a correction toward 1.1478, with deeper support at 1.1459. A move above 1.1559 would invalidate the bearish view and resume the upward breakout toward 1.1598.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The pound rose to near $1.3350 against the dollar in early Monday trading as the dollar weakened. Investors are getting nervous about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies and some are now openly wondering if this could lead to a slowdown in the US economy.
Markets took note as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to President Trump for the first time since the White House imposed tariffs on British exports.
Starmer reportedly told Trump that trade should be open but national interests should be protected. According to Downing Street both sides described the call as “ongoing and productive”.
The latest Trump tariffs – 10% on UK goods and 25% on cars, steel and aluminium – have ratcheted up tensions. But hopes of a broader US-UK trade deal are propping up the pound for now as traders see progress in talks as a counterweight to tariff disruption.
Fed Caution May Cap Sterling Gains
Despite the pound’s strength the outlook for GBP/USD could be clouded by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week.
He said rising tariffs could drive up inflation and slow down the economy – making it harder for the central bank to decide what to do next. But he said no immediate rate change, saying they need to “wait for more clarity”.
These comments suggest a delicate balance ahead for the Fed: navigating inflation risk while managing growth expectations.
If US data shows resilience or if Fed officials get more hawkish the dollar could bounce back – limiting how far the pound can go from here.
For now sentiment is in favour of the pound as the diplomatic tone improves and the dollar softens. But traders will be watching for any change in Fed speak or concrete outcomes from US-UK trade talks.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel and recently surged above the 1.3350 resistance area. The pair is now consolidating near 1.3412 — a key horizontal level — after rejecting the upper boundary of the channel. Price action remains bullish as long as support at 1.3352 holds.
The 50-period SMA at 1.3262 continues to trend upward, confirming strong bullish structure. However, the RSI is now at 81.64, indicating overbought conditions that could trigger a short-term pullback or consolidation before another leg higher.
The entry zone at 1.3352 aligns with the mid-channel support and could attract dip buyers. A bounce from this level would target 1.3412 initially, followed by 1.3458 if bullish momentum continues. A breakdown below 1.3308 would negate the setup and shift short-term bias.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 21, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold surged to a new record on Monday, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar and intensifying concerns over the global economic outlook.
Market unease has grown in recent days as U.S. President Donald Trump escalated tariff threats, raising uncertainty over trade relations with China and sending investors toward safer assets.
Adding to the volatility, China issued a warning to other nations not to enter into broad trade agreements with the U.S. that could compromise their own interests.
Investor sentiment has soured further following Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve. The president’s remarks targeting Fed Chair Jerome Powell—and reports that his team is exploring the legal feasibility of replacing him—have stirred doubts about the central bank’s independence.
This political backdrop has contributed to a sharp pullback in the dollar, with the euro climbing to a multi-year high and the yen strengthening to levels not seen since last fall.
Amid this backdrop, gold has become the asset of choice for investors seeking stability.
Market Anxiety, Policy Concerns Push Bullion Higher
The combined pressure of market instability and central bank uncertainty has pushed investors to reconsider gold’s role in global portfolios.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo notes that weakening confidence in the U.S. dollar’s reserve status and a broader move away from risk are providing strong tailwinds for gold. He expects prices to move toward $3,500 in the coming months if current conditions persist.
Thin liquidity during the Easter Monday trading session amplified price movements, with most European markets still closed.
But even in light volume, the trend was clear: investors are reassessing the reliability of U.S. financial assets, traditionally seen as safe, and turning to alternatives like gold.
With monetary policy credibility under question and geopolitical tension rising, gold appears set to remain in demand—especially if the dollar continues to slide and the Fed’s independence faces further scrutiny.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is extending its bullish momentum within a rising price channel, having broken above the $3,375 level and now eyeing the upper range of resistance at $3,418.
Price action remains firmly supported by the ascending trend structure, and the 50-period SMA at $3,280 continues to trend higher, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
The immediate structure suggests continuation, especially as the recent pullback held firmly above $3,350 — now a key support zone. A close above $3,408 would likely accelerate buying interest toward the next key target at $3,418.
On the other hand, a drop below $3,350 could trigger a move toward $3,323 or even $3,285, where the rising channel and moving average converge.
Momentum indicators also point to strength. The RSI is back above 70 at 73.01, signaling strong bullish pressure. While this may be nearing overbought territory, the trend remains intact as long as $3,350 holds.
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- EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 21, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair attracted some buying interest near 1.1380 level.
However, the major driver of the pair's upward movement is the ongoing concerns over the economic impact of tariffs, which continue to weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR).
Moreover, the gains could be short-lived as the European Central Bank's recent rate cut to 2.25% weighs on the Euro. This dovish move, coupled with ongoing trade tensions, limits the Euro’s potential for further strength.
EUR/USD Finds Support from ECB's Rate Cut and Dovish Outlook
The European Central Bank (ECB) made headlines with its decision to cut interest rates for the third time this year, bringing its main interest rate to 2.25%.
This move was prompted by slowing economic growth in the Eurozone, worsened by the impact of US tariffs on European goods.
ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that tariffs, which have surged from an average of 3% to 13%, are weighing on the European economy's outlook.
Despite the dovish stance, the Euro has managed to hold its ground. The ECB's rate cut has led to concerns over the Euro’s long-term strength, with analysts speculating that further cuts could follow in June. However, the Euro’s resilience stems from ongoing trade tensions, which continue to pressure the US Dollar.
While the ECB remains focused on downside risks to growth, the Euro's positive movement, albeit limited, reflects cautious optimism in the face of broader economic challenges.
Fed's Hawkish Stance and USD Pressure
On the other side of the Atlantic, the US Dollar has faced pressure despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent hawkish comments. Powell warned that the US economy could face stagflation—slowing growth combined with high inflation—which reduced the chances of a rate cut in June.
While this initially supported the USD, ongoing trade tensions and broader economic uncertainty have since weighed on the currency, allowing the Euro to gain some ground.
Despite this, money market traders are still pricing in nearly 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This long-term outlook for rate cuts has led to continued weakness in the USD, providing support for the EUR/USD pair in the medium term.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD continues to coil within a tightening symmetrical triangle, with price hovering around the 1.1370 level. This consolidation phase suggests a breakout is imminent, as the pair trades near converging trendlines while holding above the 50-period SMA at 1.1353. The structure remains neutral, but a dip to the 1.1344–1.1350 region may provide a buy-the-dip opportunity.
The 50-SMA has turned higher, offering support in line with the lower triangle boundary. The RSI is at 54.31, indicating balanced momentum with slight bullish bias. A bounce from the buy zone could trigger upside toward 1.1416, with further extension to 1.1427 if volume confirms.
Should price break below 1.1344, the setup weakens, and downside toward 1.1318 and potentially 1.1304 could follow. A confirmed breakout above triangle resistance, however, could validate a push toward the 1.1470 area in the coming sessions.
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S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – April 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday's trading session, the S&P 500 Index (SPX) managed to extend its upward momentum, climbing around the 5,282.70 mark with a modest gain of +0.13%.
This positive trend was fueled by a combination of trade optimism between the US and China, growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, and supportive global economic data that lifted investor sentiment.
S&P 500 Gains Support from US-China Trade Optimism and Tariff Exemptions
However, the bullish bias in the S&P 500 was mainly driven by renewed hopes of a US-China trade agreement. US President Donald Trump struck an optimistic tone, stating that a deal with China could be finalized within three to four weeks.
He further emphasized his reluctance to raise tariffs, acknowledging the potential negative impact on consumer demand.
Adding to the upbeat tone, President Trump also announced exemptions for key tech products—such as smartphones, computers, and semiconductors—from the proposed reciprocal tariffs.
These exemptions favored Chinese-manufactured goods, helping ease trade tensions and boosting investor confidence in the technology sector.
Meanwhile, China’s Foreign Ministry responded assertively, warning the US against further tariff provocations. Nonetheless, market sentiment remained positive, underpinned by hopes that dialogue would continue and lead to a formal agreement.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations Support Wall Street Rally
In addition to trade optimism, growing expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts contributed to the positive tone in equity markets. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are now pricing in around 86 basis points of rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first anticipated cut expected as early as July.
Although Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell offered a hawkish warning about the risks of persistent inflation amid a slowing economy, markets remained focused on the dovish shift in inflation data.
US CPI inflation eased to 2.4% YoY in March—down from 2.8% in February—while Core CPI also fell to 2.8%, missing estimates and reinforcing the case for monetary easing. This softer inflation outlook weighed on the US Dollar Index (DXY), which slipped to around 99.30.
On the labor front, Initial Jobless Claims dropped to 215,000, beating expectations and signaling a resilient job market. However, Continuing Claims rose to 1.885 million, adding a mixed tone to labor market dynamics.
Strong Global Data Adds to Bullish Momentum
On the other hand, the global economic data also played a key role in supporting risk appetite. China’s economy grew 5.4% YoY in Q1 2025, surpassing expectations of 5.1%, while Retail Sales surged 5.9% and Industrial Production jumped 7.7%, signaling robust domestic activity.
In Australia, despite the unemployment rate rising slightly to 4.1%, job creation remained positive with 32.2K new positions in March. However, Westpac’s Leading Index showed some loss in momentum, easing to 0.6% from 0.9%.
Therefore, the combination of easing trade tensions, hopes for a Fed rate cut, and better-than-expected data from China and Australia has kept the S&P 500 on solid footing. These factors suggest that risk-on sentiment may continue to support the broader market in the near term.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 is consolidating within a symmetrical triangle, trading below its 50-period SMA, currently at 5,307. Price has formed a higher low at 5,212 and is hovering near trendline resistance. The structure suggests indecision, with traders watching closely for a breakout or breakdown confirmation.
The recent pullback from 5,345 has found support at the 5,212 demand zone, which aligns with a rising trendline from the April lows. This zone is reinforced by a prior consolidation area and offers a potential entry point for buyers, particularly if price holds above 5,212.
On the upside, a move toward 5,345 would test the upper boundary of the triangle, followed by the 5,404 level, which marks a key resistance zone from earlier this month. Momentum remains neutral. The RSI stands at 46.30, suggesting a wait-and-see attitude as markets digest recent macro data and earnings.
A breakdown below 5,212 could shift the short-term bias bearish, with downside potential extending toward 5,118 and 5,112. A confirmed bounce from 5,212, however, could provide the foundation for a breakout toward 5,404 and higher.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 18, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have remained steady at $3,327 as of Friday, following a retreat from an all-time high of $3,358. The market has seen some profit-taking as investors headed into a long Easter weekend, but the yellow metal continues to hold its ground amid rising global uncertainties.
The combination of geopolitical tensions and the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance is playing a crucial role in maintaining gold’s current price levels.
Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand Support Gold
Gold has traditionally been considered a safe-haven asset, and with ongoing global tensions, it has once again become a popular choice for investors. Uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariffs on imports and the potential for further escalation in geopolitical conflicts have driven demand for gold.
As trade tensions simmer and recession fears mount, investors are increasingly looking to safeguard their portfolios, ensuring continued support for the precious metal.
Lukman Otunuga, a senior research analyst at FXTM, highlighted that gold remains heavily supported by "a broadly weaker dollar, uncertainty around tariff announcements, and fears about a global recession."
These factors provide a solid foundation for gold’s steady performance, despite the lack of significant price momentum.
Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance Weighs on Gold Price
On the other side of the equation, the Federal Reserve’s recent hawkish tone is creating headwinds for gold. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks reduced the likelihood of an interest rate cut in June, which has lifted the US Dollar and, in turn, applied pressure on gold.
Powell noted that the US economy’s weaknesses and the persistence of high inflation could lead to stagflationary concerns, increasing the complexity of the Fed’s policy decisions.
The market had initially priced in expectations of rate cuts, but Powell’s comments have cast doubt on this, as the likelihood of a rate cut in the near term diminishes. This shift in sentiment is likely to impact gold’s price trajectory as the stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers.
US Economic Data Shows Mixed Signals
Recent US economic data also adds to the uncertainty. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending April 12 dropped to 215K, lower than expectations and the previous week's figure of 224K, signaling strength in the labor market.
However, Continuing Jobless Claims rose by 41K to 1.885 million, suggesting some underlying weakness. Meanwhile, US Building Permits increased by 1.6% to 1.482 million in March, exceeding expectations, although Housing Starts saw a decline.
Despite mixed economic signals, money market traders are pricing in nearly 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
This pricing suggests that markets are still factoring in the possibility of a rate-cutting cycle in the medium term, which could offer some support for gold.
Looking forward, the geopolitical landscape, along with the Fed’s future actions, will likely remain key drivers of gold’s price. The ongoing tariff-related uncertainties and global recession fears continue to provide a robust safe-haven demand for gold.
At the same time, the Fed's hawkish tone could limit significant upside potential, especially if economic data continues to improve and rate cut expectations are pushed further out.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are recovering after finding support near the $3,283 level and are now attempting to reclaim ground above $3,317.
This recovery comes after a volatile session that saw a sharp dip followed by an equally strong rebound. Price action now sits just below the $3,355 resistance zone, where sellers previously rejected upside attempts.
From a technical standpoint, the 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,265, remains upward sloping and continues to offer medium-term support.
Fibonacci retracement levels show a confluence of potential demand zones between $3,274 (50%) and $3,254 (61.8%), reinforcing the validity of the recent rebound.
Momentum is also firming up. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has recovered from below 50 and now prints at 60.62, suggesting buyers are regaining control. If the price holds above $3,317, the next target comes in at $3,369 — a key Fibonacci extension level. A breakout beyond that could re-expose the recent high of $3,379.
On the downside, a drop below $3,283 would challenge the bullish structure and expose the $3,274–$3,254 range as the next area of interest for buyers.
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GOLD Price Analysis – April 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) remained under pressure around 3,323 level, struggling to stay above its fresh all-time high reached earlier this week. During the first half of the European trading session, gold dipped to a daily low around the $3,313 mark as optimism around US trade negotiations and hawkish remarks from the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell prompted profit-taking among traders.
Gold’s Struggles Amid US Economic Data and Fed's Hawkish Outlook
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar found some support following a positive Retail Sales report from the US Census Bureau, showing a 1.4% increase in March—marking the biggest jump in over two years. This followed a revised 0.2% increase in February, outpacing market expectations of a 1.3% rise.
Another factor boosting the dollar is Jerome Powell's comment that the Fed won’t cut interest rates soon because of inflation worries caused by Trump’s tariffs. This made investors less interested in buying gold.
Meanwhile, strong US economic data raised expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged, making gold less attractive. Moving on, traders keep their eyes on upcoming data like jobless claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.
US-China Trade Tensions Boost Gold Prices Amid Economic Uncertainty
Despite the upbeat US economic data, the rapidly escalating trade tensions between the US and China continue to provide support for gold prices.
President Trump’s decision to impose tariffs on Chinese goods has sparked retaliatory actions from China, including new export restrictions on rare earth metals and artificial intelligence chips. These tit-for-tat tariffs heighten global recession fears, which benefits gold as a safe-haven asset.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding President Trump’s tariff policies and the US-China trade war has kept markets on edge, providing a tailwind for gold.
Gold Price Struggles Amid Hawkish Fed Outlook and USD Recovery
Looking ahead, gold prices remain cautious as traders are concerned about the possibility of future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.
Although the market still expects that the Fed might cut rates later this year, recent comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggest a more cautious or "hawkish" approach for now. This, along with the US dollar’s recent recovery, is preventing gold from making strong gains.
Traders are now waiting for upcoming US economic data and further comments from the Fed, which could create short-term chances to adjust their trading strategies.
Despite the current pressure on gold, it continues to hold some value due to its reputation as a safe-haven asset. In times of global economic uncertainty and ongoing trade tensions, many investors still see gold as a reliable option for protecting their wealth.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is showing early signs of a short-term correction after reaching a high of $3,355. Price has since pulled back below the $3,344 resistance area, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.
The move coincides with a retreat from overbought RSI conditions and a rejection at the 0.0 Fibonacci extension level ($3,355), drawn from the March low of $3,192. The market has now slipped below the 0.236 retracement ($3,316), a level that may act as an early trigger for further downside.
Technical structure indicates a possible correction toward the $3,294 region, which aligns with the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement. Should bearish momentum accelerate, further declines toward $3,274 and $3,254 may unfold.
These areas are clustered with deeper retracement levels and near the rising 50-period SMA, currently at $3,251 — a zone likely to attract buyers if tested.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped from over 82 to 71.6, cooling from overbought levels but still above neutral. This supports the case for a continued retracement before a potential re-entry by trend-followers. As long as gold remains below $3,344, near-term risks lean toward a corrective phase.
A break back above $3,344 would weaken the bearish outlook and re-expose the $3,355–$3,375 resistance zone.
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- AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 17, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its downward slide, holding steady around the 0.6360 level. This decline followed disappointing Australian employment data. The unemployment rate for March rose to 4.1%, slightly better than the expected 4.2%.
However, the Employment Change came in at 32.2K, falling short of the forecasted 40K. This weaker employment data added pressure on the Australian Dollar, resulting in negative market sentiment.
AUD Struggles Amid Weak Labor Market and Global Uncertainty
Despite the poor labor market data, the Australian Dollar found some support from improved global risk sentiment. The AUD gained a boost after US President Donald Trump announced exemptions for key tech products, such as smartphones, semiconductors, and solar cells, from proposed tariffs.
Since China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, would benefit from these exemptions, there was some optimism for Australian exports. However, uncertainty around US trade policy still lingers, as the Trump administration is considering new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, keeping traders on edge.
Back in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shown uncertainty about when the next interest rate change might occur. In their latest policy meeting minutes, they mentioned that May could be a good time to review monetary policy, though the market is expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Some even predict there could be more cuts later in the year. Traders are now awaiting the upcoming employment report, which could provide crucial insights into the job market and influence the RBA's next move.
US Dollar Rebounds, Pressures AUD/USD
On the other side, the US Dollar has been on a strong rebound, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbing to 99.60. This rise in the greenback is supported by solid US retail sales, which increased by 1.4% in March, beating both the previous month’s growth and market expectations.
Moreover, comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggest that the Federal Reserve still has a long road ahead to hit its 2% inflation target, reducing expectations for imminent rate cuts. As the US economy shows resilience, the stronger US Dollar continues to weigh on the AUD/USD pair.
Looking ahead, the market is also eyeing key US economic data later this week, including Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Initial Jobless Claims, which could provide further direction for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed a dip in inflation to 2.4% year-over-year in March, below market expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on future rate cuts.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is slipping lower after another rejection from the $0.6391 resistance zone, which has repeatedly capped price action over recent weeks.
This area is forming a well-defined supply zone, with multiple failed breakout attempts reinforcing its technical relevance. The recent rejection aligns with the broader structure of a potential lower high, suggesting downside risk is building.
The pair is currently trading back below the highlighted resistance band, with the bearish move gaining traction. Immediate support is now seen at $0.6276 — a level that coincides with prior swing lows and the lower bound of the current consolidation. A breakdown below this point could expose $0.6193 as the next target.
The 50-period SMA, now at $0.6199, remains upward sloping but is yet to catch up with the latest price action, indicating a potential gap between short-term trend and momentum.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rolled over from a peak near 70 and is now sitting at 56, reflecting weakening bullish pressure without being oversold — a setup that often precedes deeper retracements.
As long as price remains below $0.6391, the short-term outlook favors a move lower. A clear break below $0.6300 would confirm bearish continuation and validate the $0.6276 target.
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