AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its downward slide, holding steady around the 0.6360 level. This decline followed disappointing Australian employment data. The unemployment rate for March rose to 4.1%, slightly better than the expected 4.2%.
However, the Employment Change came in at 32.2K, falling short of the forecasted 40K. This weaker employment data added pressure on the Australian Dollar, resulting in negative market sentiment.
AUD Struggles Amid Weak Labor Market and Global Uncertainty
Despite the poor labor market data, the Australian Dollar found some support from improved global risk sentiment. The AUD gained a boost after US President Donald Trump announced exemptions for key tech products, such as smartphones, semiconductors, and solar cells, from proposed tariffs.
Since China, Australia’s biggest trading partner, would benefit from these exemptions, there was some optimism for Australian exports. However, uncertainty around US trade policy still lingers, as the Trump administration is considering new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, keeping traders on edge.
Back in Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has shown uncertainty about when the next interest rate change might occur. In their latest policy meeting minutes, they mentioned that May could be a good time to review monetary policy, though the market is expecting a 25-basis-point rate cut.
Some even predict there could be more cuts later in the year. Traders are now awaiting the upcoming employment report, which could provide crucial insights into the job market and influence the RBA's next move.
US Dollar Rebounds, Pressures AUD/USD
On the other side, the US Dollar has been on a strong rebound, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) climbing to 99.60. This rise in the greenback is supported by solid US retail sales, which increased by 1.4% in March, beating both the previous month’s growth and market expectations.
Moreover, comments from Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic suggest that the Federal Reserve still has a long road ahead to hit its 2% inflation target, reducing expectations for imminent rate cuts. As the US economy shows resilience, the stronger US Dollar continues to weigh on the AUD/USD pair.
Looking ahead, the market is also eyeing key US economic data later this week, including Building Permits, Housing Starts, and Initial Jobless Claims, which could provide further direction for the US Dollar. Meanwhile, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data showed a dip in inflation to 2.4% year-over-year in March, below market expectations, reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance on future rate cuts.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is slipping lower after another rejection from the $0.6391 resistance zone, which has repeatedly capped price action over recent weeks.
This area is forming a well-defined supply zone, with multiple failed breakout attempts reinforcing its technical relevance. The recent rejection aligns with the broader structure of a potential lower high, suggesting downside risk is building.
The pair is currently trading back below the highlighted resistance band, with the bearish move gaining traction. Immediate support is now seen at $0.6276 — a level that coincides with prior swing lows and the lower bound of the current consolidation. A breakdown below this point could expose $0.6193 as the next target.
The 50-period SMA, now at $0.6199, remains upward sloping but is yet to catch up with the latest price action, indicating a potential gap between short-term trend and momentum.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has rolled over from a peak near 70 and is now sitting at 56, reflecting weakening bullish pressure without being oversold — a setup that often precedes deeper retracements.
As long as price remains below $0.6391, the short-term outlook favors a move lower. A clear break below $0.6300 would confirm bearish continuation and validate the $0.6276 target.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 17, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 16, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) surged to a fresh all-time high during the early European session on Wednesday, reaching above the $3,300 mark.
However, the metal remains well-supported by growing expectations of aggressive policy easing by the Federal Reserve (Fed) and renewed geopolitical risks, particularly from the intensifying US-China trade conflict.
Despite trimming some gains due to overbought technical conditions and profit-taking, the overall sentiment remains bullish for the safe-haven metal.
XAU/USD Rally Fueled by Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Weakening US Dollar
On the other side, the upward rally in gold prices continues to be driven by the market’s firm belief that the Fed will cut interest rates aggressively in 2025, possibly by as much as 100 basis points. This outlook has weakened the US Dollar, which slipped to its lowest level since April 2022 last week.
Hence, the softer greenback boosts demand for gold, as it becomes cheaper for foreign buyers. Investors are now closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming remarks, which may offer clearer guidance on the path of interest rates.
Moreover, market confidence in the US economy has been shaken by fears that steep tariffs could lead to a slowdown. This has further fueled speculation that the Fed will need to adopt a more dovish stance to support economic growth, adding upward pressure on gold prices.
US-China Trade War Escalation Lifts Safe-Haven Demand for Gold
Apart from this, the bullish momentum in gold has also been supported by escalating trade tensions between the United States and China.
President Donald Trump recently rolled back some tariff threats temporarily, removing electronics like smartphones and computers from the list.
However, he maintained a 145% tariff on various Chinese goods and announced future levies on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, keeping uncertainty alive.
Meanwhile, China retaliated by raising tariffs on US imports to 125%, sparking renewed fears of a deepening trade war. This tit-for-tat escalation continues to erode investor confidence in global growth, increasing the appeal of safe-haven assets like gold.
Trump’s unpredictable tariff policy has further added to market anxiety, weighing heavily on the US economic outlook and supporting gold’s upward move.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold continues to extend its upward move within a well-defined ascending channel, having broken through short-term resistance at $3,270. The metal is now approaching the next key level at $3,298, a zone that may attract profit-taking after a sharp rally from the $3,215 area earlier this week.
Price structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows intact, and strong buying interest evident on each pullback.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $3,229, supports the trend and confirms buyers remain in control. Price is trading well above this moving average, indicating a short-term overextension, which is also reflected in momentum indicators.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is now at 82, signaling overbought conditions — a possible precursor to a temporary pause or minor pullback. However, overbought signals alone are not enough to invalidate a bullish trend, especially in trending markets.
If momentum persists, a clean break above $3,298 could lead to a test of the $3,310 resistance zone, followed by $3,338 as the next upside target. On the other hand, any weakness below $3,270 could prompt a retest of the $3,250 support zone, with deeper downside levels emerging near the SMA around $3,229.
The current structure favors buying on dips as long as price remains above $3,250. Traders should monitor price behavior near resistance, particularly with momentum stretched.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 16, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD Rises Toward 1.1400 as Dollar Weakens and ECB Rate Cut Looms
During European trading hours on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair surged to trade firmly near the 1.1393 mark, recovering from a slight correction seen on Tuesday.
However, the rally was fueled by renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar, pushing the DXY index down to around 99.40. This decline in the Greenback comes as traders grow increasingly doubtful about its long-term appeal amid unpredictable tariff policies and rising inflationary concerns in the US.
EUR/USD Gains Momentum on Weak US Dollar and Tariff Uncertainty
On the US front, the recent weakness in the US Dollar has been driven by escalating concerns over US trade policy, particularly President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff strategy. His recent decision to impose up to 145% tariffs on Chinese goods while pausing others for 90 days has confused markets.
Analysts fear this could push US importers to raise prices on substitutes, thereby fueling inflation and potentially slowing down economic growth. ING analysts predict the EUR/USD could rise toward 1.1500, citing diminishing demand for the USD as a reserve and safe-haven asset and favoring the Euro’s high liquidity.
Investors are now closely watching the US Retail Sales data for March, due later today, which is expected to show a 1.3% increase compared to February’s 0.2%.
Therefore, the stronger reading could briefly support the Dollar, but overall sentiment remains bearish due to structural doubts surrounding US trade and fiscal policy.
Euro Strengthens Ahead of ECB Decision Amid Falling Inflation
On the other side, the shared currency also found support from expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% during its Thursday meeting. This would mark the sixth consecutive rate cut by the ECB.
Market confidence in a rate cut has risen following a significant slowdown in Eurozone services inflation, which grew just 3.4% year-over-year in March — the slowest pace since July 2022.
Standard Chartered analysts expect the ECB may pause in June, allowing time for Germany’s potential fiscal stimulus and wider EU defense spending plans to become clearer. These developments could influence further monetary policy adjustments in the coming months.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern after consolidating below $1.1343 for several sessions. The breakout is supported by higher volume and firm bullish candles, pushing price above both the 50-period SMA and a descending trendline resistance. This shift in structure signals a bullish continuation toward the next resistance near $1.1427.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $1.1342, has turned upward and is offering early confirmation of trend reversal support. Price is trading decisively above this level, and short-term momentum is picking up.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 65.79, rising steadily but still below overbought territory. This suggests that the breakout is healthy, and further upside may be achievable before buyers begin to fade.
As long as the price remains above the $1.1343 breakout level, bullish pressure is likely to persist. The key upside target lies at $1.1427 — a level aligned with a prior rejection zone. On the downside, a fall below $1.1340 could shift short-term sentiment back to neutral, while a break below $1.1294 would invalidate the current setup.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 16, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Wednesday, the GBP/USD saw a rise, reversing earlier losses, after the UK released softer-than-expected March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Meanwhile, the headline CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the 2.7% forecast and down from February’s 2.8%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.4%, missing the 3.5% expectation. The month-on-month CPI grew by 0.3%, down from 0.4% in February, showing easing inflation in the UK.
As a result of the softer inflation data, markets are adjusting their expectations for the Bank of England's future policy. The cooling inflation in the services sector, now at 4.7% from 5%, and the weak labor market outlook raise the chances of a dovish shift by the BoE in May.
The rise in employers' social security contributions could add pressure on the UK economy, making rate hikes less likely. This has boosted demand for the Pound, pushing GBP/USD to 1.3272, with an intra-day high of 1.3293.
USD Struggles Amid Recession and Trade War Concerns
On the other hand, the US dollar continues to face bearish trend due to concerns about a potential recession and ongoing trade tensions.
These concerns are primarily linked to US President Trump’s economic policies and trade wars, which are raising fears of a slowdown.
The 90-day tariff pause on some US trading partners, excluding China, has failed to reassure markets, with investors still wary of the long-term impacts.
The US economy’s inability to quickly replace Chinese imports could lead to higher prices for substitute goods, dampening consumer spending and economic growth.
Impact of US Dollar Weakness on GBP/USD Amid Trade War Concerns
On the other side, concerns about the ongoing trade war, especially with China, are adding to the US Dollar’s weakness.
The US is still working on trade deals with several countries, including the UK, but the uncertainty surrounding these talks and the potential impact of tariffs is causing worry in the market.
As tariffs increase the cost of imports and put pressure on consumer spending, the outlook for the US economy remains unclear, which is further hurting the US Dollar and causing it to underperform.
Therefore, the US Dollar's weakness, driven by trade war concerns, could benefit the GBP/USD pair, pushing the British Pound higher as market uncertainty reduces confidence in the Dollar's strength.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is extending its upward momentum after confirming a breakout above the key $1.3207 Fibonacci level. The pair has now entered a higher resistance zone, targeting the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $1.3340.
The rally from the $1.2700 region has been steady, with price consistently printing higher highs and respecting short-term support levels — a sign of sustained buyer interest.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $1.2981, is sloping upward and well below the current price, underlining the strength of the bullish structure.
Momentum indicators also support this trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74.1, showing overbought conditions but not yet diverging. This could signal that bullish sentiment remains intact, though short-term pullbacks should not be ruled out.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.3340. A break above this could expose the next key levels at $1.3412 and $1.3512. On the downside, the first support is seen at $1.3207 — the breakout level — followed by $1.3133, which marks the lower boundary of the most recent bullish impulse.
While overbought signals warrant some caution, price action suggests that dips may offer renewed buying opportunities as long as the pair holds above $1.3133.
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AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its bullish trend and remained well-bid around the 0.6361 level, hitting an intra-day high of 0.6378. This continued strength was driven by a mix of factors, including positive global trade sentiment and a weakening US Dollar. The boost came after US President Donald Trump exempted certain technology products from new tariffs, which lifted global risk sentiment and supported the Australian Dollar.
AUD/USD Boosted by Positive Trade Developments and China’s Economic Growth
Moreover, President Trump’s decision to exempt key technology products like smartphones, computers, semiconductors, and solar panels from tariffs sent a positive signal to global markets.
These products, mainly produced in China, are important for Australia’s trade, as China is its largest trading partner and a major buyer of its commodities.
This development supported the AUD, as markets saw it as a step toward easing trade tensions between the US and China, which is seen as positive for global trade stability.
In addition to this, China’s strong trade performance, with exports rising 13.5% year-over-year in March, boosted optimism.
Despite global uncertainties, China’s trade surplus exceeded expectations, improving the global growth outlook and further supporting the AUD.
US Dollar Weakness Amid Economic Concerns and Stagflation Risks
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar faced downward pressure, especially after the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached its lowest level since 2022. The DXY hovered around 99.90 as investors reacted to growing signs of stagflation risks in the US economy.
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic’s comments added to concerns about the Fed’s ability to achieve its 2% inflation target, dampening market expectations for aggressive interest rate cuts. This uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy further weakened the USD.
In addition, US economic data presented a mixed picture. The US Producer Price Index (PPI) showed a slight easing in inflation, while jobless claims ticked up to 223,000.
On the other hand, the University of Michigan’s sentiment index dropped to 50.8, signaling deteriorating consumer confidence, which further added to the negative sentiment surrounding the USD.
Reserve Bank of Australia’s Cautious Outlook and Market Rate Cut Expectations
On the AUD front, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) maintained a cautious approach on future rate decisions, as shown in the minutes from its March 31–April 1 meeting.
The RBA highlighted global uncertainties, including trade tensions, and noted both risks to Australia’s economy and inflation. Although the RBA kept interest rates unchanged in April, markets are now expecting a 25-basis point rate cut in May, with further cuts likely later in the year.
Australia’s 10-year government bond yield fell to about 4.33%, indicating lower inflation expectations. The RBA’s cautious tone, along with easing core inflation, fueled speculation that the central bank might adopt a more supportive policy in the near future.
Despite the RBA's cautious stance, the AUD has been rising. This could be due to positive global trade sentiment, particularly the easing of US-China tensions, and strong Chinese trade data, which boost Australia's trade prospects and support the AUD.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD is encountering firm resistance near the $0.6391 level, where a potential triple top formation is taking shape. This technical pattern, which indicates repeated failure to move higher, suggests that bullish momentum may be weakening.
Price action has tested this area multiple times over the past few weeks, and the most recent approach was met with renewed selling interest.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) is trending higher and currently sits around $0.6218, showing that the short-term structure has improved since the early April low.
However, with the pair approaching a historically strong resistance area, traders may start considering pullback scenarios — particularly if price slips below the $0.6391 neckline of the pattern.
Momentum indicators are signaling caution. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 64.8, just below overbought levels. A decline below the 60 zone could confirm bearish divergence and further support the case for a short-term reversal.
A break below the $0.6391 threshold would shift the focus to $0.6277 as the next target, with potential to extend toward $0.6218 — close to the SMA and previous support.
Unless AUD/USD manages a clean breakout above $0.6444 — invalidating the triple top — the path of least resistance appears tilted to the downside in the near term.
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USD/CAD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/CAD currency pair dropped back toward the 1.3857 level, reversing its short-lived recovery and continuing its downward trend.
This decline happened as the US Dollar (USD) lost strength due to growing market worries about the US economic outlook and unclear signals about the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates.
Investors are now focusing on Canada’s Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for March, which is expected later today and could give the pair a new direction.
US Dollar Weakens Despite Earlier Hawkish Fed Commentary
Despite earlier support from hawkish comments by Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who emphasized that reaching 2% inflation will take time, the US Dollar faced renewed selling pressure. Market participants are becoming more cautious due to concerns over stagflation and mixed opinions about the Fed’s next move.
Deutsche Bank recently updated its forecast, now expecting a 25 basis point rate cut in December, followed by two more rate cuts in early 2026. This change in expectations has reduced demand for the US Dollar, pushing the USD/CAD pair lower again.
Canadian Dollar Gains Ground on Improved Risk Sentiment and Trade Relief
On the other hand, the Canadian Dollar (CAD) strengthened as market sentiment improved after US President Donald Trump decided to exempt certain tech products, such as smartphones and laptops, from tariffs.
This decision eased concerns about the US-China trade tensions and increased demand for risk-sensitive currencies like the CAD.
Moreover, the Loonie received support from falling US bond yields and growing expectations ahead of Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) data release today, which could influence the Bank of Canada’s future policy decisions.
USD/CAD Volatility Ahead as Investors Await Canadian CPI and Central Bank Signals
Looking forward, the USD/CAD pair is expected to remain volatile as inflation data and central bank policies continue to influence market sentiment in both the US and Canada.
Investors are adjusting their positions ahead of Canada’s Core CPI release, as a stronger-than-expected inflation reading could make near-term rate cuts from the Bank of Canada less likely, which would support the CAD.
At the same time, Canada’s 10-year government bond yield dropped to 3.12%, down from a recent peak of 3.27%, indicating caution from investors amid ongoing global economic uncertainties.
Therefore, the expectation of stronger Canadian inflation and a lower bond yield suggests reduced likelihood of Bank of Canada rate cuts, supporting the CAD and potentially causing further downside pressure on the USD/CAD pair.
USD/CAD – Technical Analysis
USD/CAD is trading in a narrow range following an extended downward move, holding below key resistance at $1.3912. This level aligns with a previous consolidation area and coincides with the 1.414 Fibonacci extension of the prior leg. The pair has been unable to break through this ceiling, reinforcing a bearish setup, especially with momentum indicators remaining under pressure.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $1.4076, is sloping downward and far from current price levels, confirming that the medium-term trend remains to the downside. Additionally, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 37.6, with no strong sign of reversal, indicating persistent bearish momentum.
Price continues to test the lower boundary of a short-term consolidation box between $1.3912 and $1.3830, signaling potential for further downside if the lower bound is breached.
If sellers regain control and push below $1.3830, the next support zone comes into focus near $1.3750 — a key Fibonacci projection level. A move beyond that may extend toward $1.3677, where deeper support from the 2.272 extension lies.
As long as price remains below the $1.3912 resistance, short-term bias stays bearish. A break above this level would invalidate the setup and open the way back toward the $1.3965 resistance. Until then, rallies are likely to face selling pressure.
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- GOLD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – April 15, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Tuesday, the Gold price (XAU/USD) maintains its firm tone around the $3,225 level, hovering just below the record high set the previous day.
However, the yellow metal continues to draw support from intensifying US-China trade tensions and increasing market speculation that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy further in 2025.
Although, the temporary tariff relief offered by the US has kept broader market sentiment steady, preventing aggressive bullish momentum in Gold.
Gold Supported by Escalating US-China Trade Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand
However, the bullish undertone in Gold remains intact as concerns deepen over the rapidly worsening US-China trade war. After President Trump increased tariffs on Chinese products to a record 145%, China responded by raising its own tariffs on US goods up to 125%.
These back-and-forth actions between the two largest economies have made investors nervous about a global economic slowdown. As a result, more people are turning to safe-haven assets like Gold, which has helped keep its price strong.
Despite the temporary exemptions on some electronic products and suggested he might ease tariffs on the auto industry, the overall situation is still uncertain.
He also warned that new tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals could be coming soon. Because of this ongoing tension between the US and China, investors remain cautious, and this continues to support Gold prices near their all-time highs.
Gold Gains from Fed Rate-Cut Bets and Weak US Dollar Sentiment
Gold also finds tailwinds from growing expectations of aggressive rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Traders are now pricing in at least three rate cuts in 2025 as fears of a US recession rise.
The US Dollar remains on the back foot as investors bet that softer monetary policy will be required to cushion the economic blow from trade disruptions.
Recent comments from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who warned that the tariff shock may force the Fed to act, and Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, who noted inflation pressures remain due to tariffs, have reinforced dovish sentiment.
Market focus is now turning to Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech on Wednesday for clearer policy guidance, which could further shape Gold’s next move.
Traders are watching Tuesday's Empire State Manufacturing Index and upcoming speeches from Fed officials to get a sense of short-term direction. The overall trend is still leaning upward, as concerns and expectations of rate cuts keep Gold in demand, especially with the weaker US dollar.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices are exhibiting strong bullish momentum after decisively breaking above the $3,168 Fibonacci pivot level, retracing fully from the April 4 dip near $2,956.
The recent breakout above the 1.0 Fibonacci level at $3,168 has been sustained, with prices consolidating in a tight range just below the $3,255 resistance — the 1.414 Fib extension level. This signals a potential continuation toward the 1.618 extension at $3,298, provided the bullish structure remains intact.
Technically, gold remains supported by the upward sloping 50-period SMA, currently at $3,167. This moving average has acted as a dynamic support since the April rebound began, reflecting the persistent demand for the metal amid geopolitical and inflationary concerns.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering near 61, indicating that while bullish momentum is present, the market is not yet in overbought territory, offering room for further upside.
Immediate support is now observed at $3,206 — aligning with recent consolidation lows — followed by stronger buying interest expected near the $3,168 and $3,123 retracement zones. As long as gold holds above the $3,167 stop-loss threshold, the bullish thesis remains valid.
A breakout above $3,255 could trigger momentum toward the $3,283 and $3,298 resistances, with potential for a further extension to $3,338 should bullish sentiment intensify. However, failure to hold above $3,206 would expose gold to a pullback toward the $3,167-$3,123 support cluster.
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GOLD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) prices experienced a mild retreat after reaching a fresh all-time high earlier this week, trading with a slight negative bias around the $3,220 level during the first half of the European session.
This pullback can be attributed to profit-taking, as markets adopt a more risk-on sentiment and global equity markets show strength.
Despite the dip, the broader market outlook suggests that strong downside remains unlikely, particularly as global uncertainties continue to underpin demand for the safe-haven asset.
Gold Price Supported by Escalating US-China Trade Tensions
However, the recent retreat in gold prices comes amid heightened risk sentiment, but any notable declines are expected to be limited. This is largely due to escalating US-China trade tensions, which are expected to continue to act as a tailwind for gold.
Last Friday, China increased tariffs on US imports to 125%, responding to President Donald Trump’s decision to raise tariffs on Chinese goods to 145%. These developments have sparked further fears of a slowdown in global economic growth, which could lift gold prices back to their all-time highs.
Investors are keenly watching these trade dynamics, as the continued friction between the world’s two largest economies presents a strong case for holding gold as a safe-haven asset.
Fed Rate Cut Expectations and Weak US Dollar Keep Gold Supported
Investor sentiment has also been influenced by expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon resume its rate-cutting cycle.
Meanwhile, the recent US economic data, including weaker-than-expected inflation figures, have fueled speculation that the Fed may lower borrowing costs at least three times this year.
The sharp decline in US Treasury yields and the continued weakness of the US Dollar, which is hovering near its lowest level since April 2022, have provided further support to gold.
This outlook for easing monetary policy comes amid concerns over a slowdown in the US economy due to tariff-driven disruptions.
Gold, being a non-yielding asset, benefits from a weaker dollar and lower interest rates, and these factors are likely to keep downward pressure on gold prices at bay.
On the data front, the latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for March showed a 0.1% monthly decline and a decrease in the yearly inflation rate to 2.4%, further fueling expectations that the Fed may pivot towards more dovish monetary policies.
Inflation Concerns and Safe-Haven Demand Provide a Strong Floor for Gold
Another factor supporting gold's rise is the expectation that tariffs will cause higher inflation in the coming months. As a result, gold is seen as a safe bet against rising prices, which helps maintain strong demand for the metal.
With the market expecting the Fed to cut rates by 90 basis points by the end of 2025, gold is likely to keep appreciating in the near future.
This week, investors are paying close attention to statements from key Federal Reserve officials, including Fed Chair Jerome Powell on Wednesday, as these comments could shed light on future rate cuts.
Additionally, the US Retail Sales data, set for release later this week, could drive demand for the US Dollar and influence gold's price.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is extending its bullish momentum, currently hovering near the $3,232 level after decisively breaking past the $3,206 pivot. The uptrend remains firmly intact, supported by strong price action and a 50 SMA rising below current levels at $3,096.
The market is now testing resistance at $3,255.39, a key Fib extension level, with upside potential toward $3,298.43 if buyers maintain control.
However, RSI at 70.82 signals overbought conditions, suggesting the rally could stall or consolidate before pushing higher. If the price fails to clear $3,255, we could see a retest of $3,206 or deeper toward $3,167, which now serves as a key downside risk level.
Gold remains bullish above the $3,206 breakout point. A sustained close above this level keeps the upside bias toward $3,283 and $3,298, with caution warranted as RSI stretches into overbought territory.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Monday, the GBP/USD pair extended its winning streak, climbing near the 1.3190 mark, its highest level in over two months.
The pair aims to reclaim the six-month high of 1.3207 as the US dollar continues to lose ground amid escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty in the United States. The ongoing weakness in the US Dollar has been a key driver of the pair’s bullish momentum.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Escalating US-China Trade Tensions and Consumer Sentiment Drop
However, the reason for its bullish trend could be attributed to renewed trade tensions between the US and China. Despite US President Donald Trump announcing a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, the situation escalated when China raised tariffs on US goods to 125%.
This back-and-forth has shaken investor confidence in the US Dollar, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to drop to 99.00, its lowest point in three years.
Moreover, Trump’s push to bring manufacturing back to the US has raised concerns among American business owners, who worry about sudden policy changes.
These uncertainties have had an impact on consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index falling sharply to 50.8 in April, far below expectations.
Dollar Weakens Amid Fed's Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Uncertainty
On the other side, the Dollar's troubles have deepened as market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its June meeting. Although the Fed is being cautious, New York Fed President John Williams admitted that predicting the economy is tough given the current political climate.
This uncertainty has made traders expect a more dovish stance from the Fed, which has weakened the US Dollar even further, helping push GBP/USD higher.
UK Economic Data and Trade Tensions Support the Pound
On the other hand, the British Pound has shown strength, supported by positive expectations ahead of important UK economic data.
Labor market and CPI figures due this week are expected to show slight softness in wage and inflation growth, which could reinforce the idea that the Bank of England (BoE) might cut rates in May. Despite this, the Pound remains strong as the UK government takes a proactive approach to handle global trade disruptions.
Former BoE Deputy Governor Charlie Bean has suggested aggressive rate cuts, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized the need to boost the UK’s trade presence.
Reeves is confident in securing new trade deals with both the EU and the US, aiming to protect the UK economy from external challenges.
Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair is likely to stay supported as the Fed and BoE follow different policy paths, and ongoing trade uncertainties continue to pressure the US Dollar.
If UK data meets or exceeds expectations and global trade tensions remain, the pair could break above the 1.3200 level in the near future.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The British pound has resumed its climb against the U.S. dollar, currently trading at $1.31659 after holding the uptrend support. The pair broke above the critical $1.31025 pivot level, turning it into new support and validating a bullish continuation setup.
RSI is above 73, suggesting buying momentum remains elevated, although price is now flirting with overbought conditions.
Price action is aligned with a rising trendline, and as long as that structure holds, the bullish case toward $1.32078 remains valid. If this resistance breaks convincingly, GBP/USD could extend to $1.32697, and potentially toward the psychological barrier at $1.33236. A pullback below $1.31025, however, would expose the market to deeper corrections toward $1.30387 and $1.29847.
The technical setup favors a bullish bias as long as price stays above $1.31025. Traders may consider initiating long positions on a sustained break, aiming for $1.32078 while managing risk tightly below $1.30387.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Monday’s European trading session, the EUR/USD pair maintained it upward trend and surged to near 1.1425 level. However, the euro showed impressive strength as the US Dollar (USD) continued its decline amid increasing fears of stagflation in the United States, where inflation is rising, economic growth is slowing, and unemployment is cooling down.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Stagflation Concerns and US-China Trade Tensions
On the US front, the broad based US dollar has been under pressure as market participants anticipate stagflation in the US, particularly after the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in April, its lowest since June 2022.
The decline reflects deepening concerns about a potential recession as US households worry about escalating trade tensions with China.
On Friday, China retaliated by increasing tariffs on US goods to 125%, compounding fears of a trade war that could hinder investment and economic growth.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's 12-month forward inflation expectations surged to 6.7%, up from 5% in March, signaling rising concerns over persistent inflation.
These negative economic signals are adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may struggle to bring inflation under control, contributing to the weakening of the USD.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations and Euro Strength Amid US-China Tariff Tensions
The euro has continued to strengthen as traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) this Thursday. If this happens, it would be the seventh consecutive 25 bps cut since June.
Many traders are confident that the ECB will ease its monetary policy further, as they believe the US-driven trade war will not cause inflation in the Eurozone.
Moreover, the ongoing trade war between the US and China is expected to shift some of China’s exports to the Eurozone. This benefits Eurozone importers, who will choose Chinese products over domestically made goods due to their cost advantage. This shift is seen as a way to offset the impact of US tariffs on global inflation, providing further support for the euro.
ECB officials, including Gediminas Šimkus, have suggested that cutting interest rates could help boost economic growth in the face of trade tensions. Šimkus also emphasized the need for a "less restrictive policy" to address challenges caused by the tariff dispute.
Furthermore, EU finance ministers have agreed to present a unified stance in trade talks with the US, which is expected to increase the euro’s appeal.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The euro continues its strong upward trajectory against the dollar, trading around $1.14158 after breaking above the psychological $1.13960 pivot. The bullish trend remains intact, supported by a steep ascending structure and consistent higher highs. Price action has extended well beyond the 50 EMA ($1.10505), underlining bullish dominance.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.14661, and a break above could expose $1.14895, the next logical technical target. Beyond that, $1.15533 becomes relevant based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
On the downside, $1.13330 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.13015 and $1.12505. The Relative Strength Index at 70.50 suggests momentum remains elevated, though near-term exhaustion is possible. Traders should monitor potential profit-taking around $1.14895.
The bullish setup remains favorable as long as EUR/USD holds above $1.13960. A confirmed break above resistance could fuel further upside, but overbought signals may prompt a brief pause or consolidation.
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