AUD/USD Price Analysis – April 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure around the 0.6411 level, hitting the intra-day low of 0.6409 level.
However, the reason for its downward trend could be linked to the strength of the US Dollar, which has been supported by easing global trade tensions and shifting market sentiments.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid US-China Trade Optimism, but Uncertainty Persists
On the US front, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is currently trading around 99.20, reflecting the strength of the US Dollar. This recent rally is largely driven by improved global trade sentiment.
US President Donald Trump has signaled a willingness to reduce tariffs on Chinese goods, while China has started exempting certain US products from its steep 125% tariffs.
These developments have fueled optimism that the prolonged trade war between the US and China may be nearing a resolution.
Despite these optimistic remarks, a spokesperson for the Chinese embassy firmly denied any ongoing negotiations with the US over tariffs, asserting that the two nations are not in talks. This has left markets uncertain about the future of US-China trade relations, keeping the pressure on the AUD.
AUD/USD Under Pressure Ahead of Australia's Inflation Report and Ongoing US-China Trade Tensions
Another factor that has been putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair is the upcoming inflation report from Australia, set for release on Wednesday.
Traders are closely watching this data, as it could influence expectations for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).
There is speculation that the RBA may lower interest rates by 25 basis points in May to mitigate the effects of US tariffs, which would add downward pressure on the Australian Dollar in the short term.
Meanwhile, the ongoing US-China trade conflict continues to create uncertainty. While US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that talks with China are ongoing, no deal has been reached yet.
The US is also working to ease the impact of automotive tariffs, but these efforts have not stopped the growing trade tensions.
If the situation escalates further, the US Dollar could also face pressure, especially if China retaliates with tariffs or other measures. Traders will keep a close eye on these developments, as they could influence both currencies.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
AUD/USD continues to consolidate within a well-defined horizontal channel, supported by an ascending trendline that’s held since April 24.
Price recently bounced off the $0.6400 handle and is now hovering above the key intraday pivot at $0.64151 — the proposed entry level. Buyers will need a firm break and close above $0.64350 to target the next resistance at $0.64501, followed by $0.64691.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $0.64020 (50 SMA), with $0.63955 and $0.63707 acting as deeper structural floors. Candlestick action near support shows a bullish rejection wick followed by a minor engulfing candle, signaling a shift in short-term momentum back to the upside.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 58.79, staying comfortably above midline without being overbought. No bearish divergence is present, suggesting momentum could favor a continuation move higher.
Price structure also shows higher lows since April 23, aligning with the ascending trendline — a classic early bull trend formation.
There’s a minor supply zone between $0.64300 and $0.64450, and price has tested it twice, forming short wicks to the upside — watch for a clean breakout here before scaling in aggressively. The 50 SMA at $0.64020 is now sloping upward, adding confluence to the bullish thesis.
If buyers hold above $0.64151, this structure suggests another attempt toward $0.64501 is likely — but patience is key as resistance remains sticky.
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