The U.K. Inflation Figures in Highlights!

The GBP/USD was closed at $1.3808 after placing a high of $1.3907 and a low of $1.3800. GBP/USD extended its loss and dropped for the second consecutive session on Tuesday amid the renewed strength in the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar was strong across the board as the U.S. CPI report from June came in higher than the expectations and supported the bets that Fed might start easing stimulus measures soon. The DXY surged to 92.81 level after rising for about 0.5% on the day and weighed on the currency pair GBP/USD.

At 04:01 GMT, the BRC Retail Sales Monitor for the year declined to 6.7% against the expected 11.5% and weighed on the British Pound that dragged GBP/USD pair further on the downside. From the U.S. side, at 14:57 GMT, the NFIB Small Business Index for June rose to 102.5 against the anticipated 99.5 and supported the U.S. dollar that added further loss in GBP/USD. At 17:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index for June also surged to 0.9% against the predicted 0.5% and supported the U.S. dollar that added extra pressure on GBP/USD currency pair. The Core CPI for June rose to 0.9% against the estimated 0.4% that supported the greenback and added loss in GBP/USD.

At 23:00 GMT, the Federal Budget Balance was declined to -174.2B against the projected -205.0B that weighed on the U.S. dollar and further caped loss in GBP/USD. Investors have been optimistic about the anticipated tightening monetary policy from the central bank as the latest FOMC meeting minutes revealed that Fed officials were talking about early tapering. The June inflation data came in higher than expectations and supported the bets that Fed will soon start tapering asset purchases. These bets drove the U.S. dollar prices higher on Tuesday and kept GBP/USD pair under pressure.

However, some analysts believe that one month reading of higher inflation was not enough for Fed to start easing stimulus measures. Whereas, others believed that as the U.S. Consumer Prices rose to their 13-year higher level during last month, it should be enough for Fed to assume that prices were at alarmingly high levels.

On the flip side , the GBP struggled to gain strength against the U.S. dollar after a warning from the Bank of England. The BOE warned that an increase in risk-taking behavior triggers the danger of a sharp correction in asset valuation. If this occurred, it could directly impact the financial system, tightened financial conditions, and consequently, over the debt vulnerabilities within U.K. households and businesses.

British Pound was also under pressure as, despite the warnings from several global health experts, the U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson insisted on lifting all restrictions at Freedom Day on July 19 and said that the success of the U.K. vaccination drive should mitigate any significant risk to the healthcare system. However, the coronavirus cases and hospitalizations were continuously increasing in the region and were threatening the economy’s return to normal. Furthermore, the disputes over the size of the Brexit bill in the U.K. were also raising the international tensions that deteriorated the outlook of the Sterling and kept the GBP/USD pair under pressure throughout Tuesday.

GBP/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.3769 1.3876

1.3731 1.3945

1.3662 1.3983

Pivot Point: 1.3838

GBP/USD - Technical Outlook

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.3842 level, having crossed over the 50 periods EMA at 1.3825 level. Continuation of a bullish trend extends bullish momentum towards the 1.3851 level, and violation of this level exposes the Sterling price towards the 1.3906 level. On the downside, the Cable pair’s support holds at 1.3801 level, and break out of this exposes Sterling towards 1.3755 level. The MACD has also crossed over the 0 levels, supporting an upward trend in the GBP/USD price. It will be a big day for the GBP as the U.K. economy is due to report the CPI figures. Economists are expecting these figures to perform better than in previous months. CPI data is forecasted to surge from 2.1% to 2.2%, and if this happens, the Sterling can gain support. Let’s keep an eye on the 1.3838 level as Sterling’s bullish bias remains strong over this pivot point level. All the best!

Bearish Bias Dominates Bitcoin

The BTC/USD was closed at $32,727.0 after placing a high of $33,333.0 and a low of $32,210.0. BTC/USD extended its loss on Tuesday and remained depressed for the second consecutive session amid the strength in the greenback and the surrounding hostile environment of the cryptocurrency. The SEC delayed the decision-making on another bitcoin ETF proposal named the First Trust Skybridge Bitcoin ETF. It was revealed in the July 7 filing by the U.S. SEC.

According to the filing, the review period was extended by 45 days, and the new date for a decision was set at August 25. The SEC can extend the review period for 240-days maximum before it must make an official decision. This summer, the SEC has delayed multiple application reviews for bitcoin funds, including the proposed Wisdom Tree Bitcoin Trust and VanEck Bitcoin Trust. Skybridge initially filed for the bitcoin ETF with the SEC on March 19 and later submitted an amended proposal on May 6. However, SEC has delayed the decision and extended it for 45 days, and this news added a negative impression on BTC/USD on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the U.K. police confiscated about 180 million pounds, equal to about $250 million worth of digital assets, in money-laundering suspects.

The Met's Economic Crime Command, British Police, made one of the largest global crypto seizures worth $250 million of numerous digital assets as part of a thorough investigation for international money laundering. This news also added a bad impression on the crypto-environment and added loss in BTC/USD. Meanwhile, the ICIC Bank of India has warned users not to use their remittance services for transferring any form of crypto or digital currency. The bank has clearly stated in its latest Retail Outward Remittance Application form its intent to stop users from using the service for crypto transfers. This also exerted downside pressure on BTC/USD.

Furthermore, the U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback value against the value of six major currencies also surged on Tuesday to 92.81 level amid the upbeat U.S. CPI data for the day. The Fed's hopes to start tapering asset purchases sooner than expected kept the U.S. dollar higher and BTC/USD lower for the day as both have a negative correlation.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

32180.4 33303.4

31633.7 33879.7

31057.4 34426.4

Pivot Point: 32756.7

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

The BTC/USD is trading with a dramatic bearish bias at the 31,800 level since it has violated the symmetrical triangle pattern. On the 4-hour timeframe, the symmetrical triangle pattern supported Bitcoin at 33,335 levels, but the violation of this support brings significant selling pressure in Bitcoin. For the moment, the same resistance level of 33,335 is working at a solid resistance level; however, the BTC/USD will be facing a minor hurdle at 32,139 on the way.

On the downside, the BTC/USD's support holds around 31,050 level that's being extended by a double bottom support level. Breakout of this support level exposes the BTC price towards the next support area of 30,160 level. Selling bias dominates in Bitcoin today. All the best!

U.S. Inflation Figures in the Limelight!

Gold prices were closed at $1807.50 after placing a high of $1810.90 and a low of $1791.50. Gold dropped on Monday during early trading hours as the U.S. dollar gained some ground. However, the precious metal managed to recover its daily loss and ended its session with minor gains.

The U.S. dollar was strong across the board as investors were cautiously looking forward to the U.S. inflation data that could influence the timeline of the Federal Reserve for tapering the bond purchases. On Tuesday, the highly awaited U.S. Consumer Price Index report will be released to give some hints about the decision of the Federal Reserve related to the tapering of bond purchases.

If inflation data remains concerning, the Fed will move with tapering, but if the data about inflation becomes benign, the Fed will feel less need for tapering that could benefit precious metals. Gold fell to its worst month since November 2016 in June after a surprise hawkish tilt by the U.S. Federal Reserve. Fed announced that it might start increasing interest rates in 2023 to 0.6% from the current level of 0.25%. HigherHigher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies remained green for the day and reached 92.42 that weighed on the yellow metal prices, and kept the XAU/USD limited gains.

Furthermore, on Monday, the New York Federal Reserve Bank President, John Williams, said that the purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities from the Federal Reserve were both affecting interest rates and overall financial conditions. He added that one group did not have a significantly larger impact on the housing market. He said that both of them affect the interest rates; therefore, both affect the cost of housing. He also repeated his comments that the U.S. economy was yet far from the substantial further progress threshold set by the Central bank for reducing the asset purchases. He rejected to offer a timeline for starting the process of tapering and said that when the time comes, it would be natural for Fed to ease asset purchases and adjust interest rates. These comments from Williams also supported the U.S. dollar and kept gold under pressure throughout the day.

The precious metal managed to end its day with minor gains on the back of concerns over the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus. The U.S. saw the daily count of coronavirus cases rise above the 20,000 level for three days in a row. These levels have not been seen since May, but now the spread of the Delta variant of coronavirus, especially in the areas of low vaccination, has caused a rising number of infections in the United States.

As perthe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention director, Rochelle Walensky has said that more than 9 in 10 recent coronavirus cases have occurred in countries with vaccination rates lower than 40%. These concerns kept the safe-haven appeal alive in the market, and hence, gold gained against the U.S. dollar on Monday’s trading session despite the strength in the greenback.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1795.70 1815.10

1783.90 1822.70

1776.30 1834.50

Pivot Point: 1803.30

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

On Tuesday, the precious metal gold is trading with a bullish bias at a 1,809 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, gold has tested and formed a double top pattern at 1,812 levels. Closing of candles below this level is supporting sellers. However, the bullish breakout of this level can expose the XAU/USD price towards the 1,818 level. As we can see on the 4-hour chart, gold has formed a bearish engulfing candle below 1,812 resistance levels. That’s adding solid bearish pressure on gold; however, the leading and lagging technical indicators favor a bullish bias. The 50 periods EMA supports gold at 1,804 level while the MACD is also closing histograms in the buying zone. Today, the primary focus will remain on the U.S. CPI and Core CPI figures as these have the potential to drive sharp price action in the gold and dollar-related pairs. All the best!

Brace for the U.S. Inflation Figures!

The EUR/USD was closed at $1.1859 after placing a high of $1.1881 and a low of $1.1836. EUR/USD broke its 2-days bullish streak and fell on Monday amid the strength of the U.S. dollar. The U.S. dollar was strong across the board as the attention of investors was diverted to the release of inflation data that is due on Tuesday and the congressional testimony by the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that is scheduled later for the week. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback value against the basket of six major currencies, rose to 92.42 level and supported the greenback. Whereas the benchmark U.S. Treasury Yields on 10-year note remained steady on Monday at 1.36%.

Meanwhile, the ministers of Finance and Economic of the Eurogroup held a meeting on Monday with the U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, to discuss the financial and banking stability and the recovery after the pandemic. According to the sources, the debate will focus on economic policies to accelerate economic recovery and maintain and strengthen transatlantic ties in the economic sphere. More importantly, rebuilding ties that were temporarily weakened in the presidential mandate of Donald Trump.

On the data front, there was no data released on Monday from the U.S. side; however, from the EU side, at 11:00 GMT, the German WPI for June surged to 1.5% against the expected 0.9% and supported the single currency Euro that further caped loss in EUR/USD. Furthermore, the New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams said that the purchases of mortgage-backed securities and Treasury securities from the Federal Reserve both impact interest rates and overall financial conditions. He noted that one group did not have a considerably more impact on the housing market. He added that both of them impact the interest rates; hence, both affect the cost of housing.

He also reiterated that the U.S. economy was still far from the substantial further progress threshold set by the Federal Reserve for easing the asset purchases. He declined to provide a timeline for beginning the process of easing asset purchases and said that Fed would naturally reduce bond-buying and increase interest rates when the time comes. These comments from Williams gave strength to the U.S. dollar, which eventually dragged the currency pair EUR/USD. Furthermore, the risk-off market sentiment driven by the Delta variant of coronavirus concerns also kept the riskier assets like EUR/USD under pressure on Monday.

The Delta variant of the coronavirus has caused an increased number of cases in the U.S., too, with the third day of reporting more than 20,000 daily cases. Researches suggested that the cases were growing rapidly in the areas where the vaccination was lower than 40%. These concerns kept the risk-off market sentiment supported, and hence, EUR/USD dropped on Monday.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1835 1.1880

1.1813 1.1903

1.1790 1.1926

Pivot Point: 1.1858

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD is trading at 1.1863 level, facing immediate resistance at 1.1879 level that marks a double top pattern. On the hourly timeframe, the EUR/USD pair has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern that’s extending resistance at 1.1879 level along with a support area of 1.1860. Typically, the ascending triangle breakout on the higher side, and if this happens, the EUR/USD price will be exposed to the next resistance level of 1.1908. Likewise, the bearish breakout of 1.1860 exposes the pair towards the next support area of 1.1836. The MACD is holding in a buying zone, but the recent histograms show a weakness in the bullish trend. It looks like the traders are looking for a fundamental reason to trade the market, and the U.S. Inflation figures can be that reason. Let’s keep an eye on the CPI and Core CPI data to determine further trends in the direct currency pair. All the best!

Symmetrical Triangle Breakout

The BTC/USD was closed at $33090.0 after placing a high of $34624.0 and a low of $32616.0. BTC/USD remained under pressure on Monday amid some adverse developments surrounding Bitcoin and the strength in the U.S. dollar. A sales consultant from the United Kingdom, Hisham Chaudhary, has been found guilty of seven offenses under the Terrorism Act by a jury at Birmingham Crown Court. The 28-year old sales consultant was found guilty of using Bitcoin to fund the IS group, and the court has announced that he will be sentenced on September 3.

However, Hisham Chaudhary has denied the accusations and said that he did not use the cryptocurrency to back the terrorism by the organization and spreading propaganda online. As per the investigation, the sales consultant raised thousands of British Pounds and converted them into BTC, which he sent to free IS supporters from detention camps in Syria. Hisham denied the accusation and said that his actions had a humanitarian purpose. However, the court found him guilty and sentenced him on September 3. This news added weight to the BTC/USD as, after this case, it was proved that bitcoin was used in terrorism activities.

According to some analysts, bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies were not necessarily the ideal storage mechanism for illicit funds. It is because, unlike other forms of value transfer like cash, cryptocurrencies are inherently transparent. Every transaction made in BTC can be seen in a publicly visible ledger. Hence, with the right tools, the bad actors could be prevented from terrorism financing and other crimes.

On the other hand, JPMorgan offered its views on the bituminization of El Salvador, the country which made BTC legal tender recently alongside the U.S. dollar. According to JPMorgan, there was no tangible economic benefit attached to adopting bitcoin as a second form of legal tender. The American megabank continued criticizing El Salvador’s decision of making Bitcoin legal tender and warned of the potential risks involved for both country and the cryptocurrency.

According to a report published by the JPMorgan expert group, this move from El Salvador could put pressure on the Bitcoin network. The report suggested that bitcoin was highly illiquid as most of the trading volumes of BTC were internalized by major exchanges, with more than 90% of BTC not changing hands in more than a year. The exerts at JPMorgan said that using BTC as legal tender in the country would potentially put a significant limitation on the capability of bitcoin to serve as a medium of exchange.

All these negative comments and criticism from JPMorgan added further pressure on the prices of BTC/USD on Monday. Additionally, the strength in the U.S. dollar driven by the increased focus of investors over the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index data from June also added extra pressure on BTC/USD and dragged its prices further on the downside.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

32262.6 34270.6

31435.3 35451.3

30254.6 36276.6

Pivot Point: 33443.3

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

On Tuesday, the leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin has violated the symmetrical triangle pattern that supported it at 33,335 levels. The closing of candles below 33,335 support is adding strong selling pressure on Bitcoin. The BTC/USD has closed three black crows patterns on the hourly timeframe, demonstrating strengthening bearish power among investors. On the downside, the BTC/USD’s support holds around 32,575 level that’s being extended by a double bottom support level. Breakout of this support level exposes the BTC price towards the next support area of 32,135 level. At the same time, the resistance continues to hold around 33,335 and 34,060 levels today. Selling bias dominates in Bitcoin today. All the best!

Upward Channel Breakout

A day before, the precious metal gold closed at $1807.10 after placing a high of $1812.00 and a low of $1794.20. Gold extended its gains and continued its bullish streak for the 7th consecutive session on Thursday. However, the gains were a little too limited as the prices remained primarily flat throughout the session. The U.S. dollar index that gauges the greenback value against the basket of six major rival currencies remained on the back foot on Thursday. The DXY dropped to 92.24 level amid the declining U.S. Treasury Yields. The yields on the benchmark 10-year note continued their bearish streak for the 9th consecutive session and reached their lowest since mid-February level at 1.251%. Lower Treasury yields decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding yellow metal and support the gold prices. The precious metal was also supported on the day because of the concerns over a recovery in the U.S. labor market and the Delta variant of the coronavirus.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from the U.S. for last week surged to 373K against the projected 345K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that helped gold remain green for the day. The rising number of jobless claims from Americans depicted a weak U.S. labor recovery that weighed on the U.S. dollar and helped gold prices on Thursday. Meanwhile, the fight against the coronavirus pandemic in some wealthier nations has become a race between the rollout of vaccines and the highly contagious delta variant. As per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the researchers were struggling to confirm the effectiveness of vaccines against the highly contagious variant of the coronavirus that was first identified in India, the Delta variant, which accounts for more than half of the new cases in the U.S.

According to the Health Ministry of Israel, the Pfizer & BioNTech vaccine, which is considered one of the most effective shots, offered only 64% protection against the Delta variant. Given the rising spread of this variant, Sydney extended its lockdown by a week till July 16; Singapore announced that it would not use Sinovac to its people in its national vaccine campaign. The United States reported to dispatch 2 million Moderna vaccine doses to Vietnam, Turkmenistan made the coronavirus vaccination mandatory for all adults. At the same time, England’s chief medical officer warned of a rise in long-covid in which symptoms persist for months among young people.

The Hype around the Delta variant caused a sudden increase in the value of yellow metal prices after Pfizer Inc. revealed its plans to U.S. regulators to authorize a booster dose of its coronavirus vaccine within the next month. The spread of the extremely contagious Delta variant and the risks of reinfection six months after inoculation urged scientists to recommend a booster shot of the vaccine. However, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease and Control Prevention said in a joint statement that Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster coronavirus vaccine shot at this time.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1792.54 1817.34

1780.97 1830.57

1767.74 1842.14

Pivot point: 1805.77

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

On Monday, the precious metal gold is trading with a bearish bias at a 1,799 level. On the 4 hour timeframe, the precious metal gold has violated the upward channel at 1,803, which is now adding strong selling pressure on gold. On the downside, the precious metal's support level prevails at 1,796, and this exposes gold price towards 1,789 level. The lagging technical indicator 50 EMA is supporting a selling bias in gold along with the leading MACD indicator that's exhibiting a bearish crossover. Both of the technical tools are in favor of a selling bias. Speaking about the technical sice, gold has closed three black crows patterns on the 4-hour chart supporting strong bearish bias among investors. All the best!

Double Top Pattern Extends Resistance

A day before, the single currency Euro closed at $1.1872 level after placing a high of $1.1880 and a low of $1.1855. The EUR/USD currency pair managed to recover most of its last daily losses in a single day amid the renewed weakness in the U.S dollar. The declining U.S. Treasury yields that reached their lowest level since February 14 at 1.25% weighed heavily on the greenback and dragged it against the basket of six major currencies. The European Central Bank raised its inflation goals and said it might let the inflation overshoot the target for a while. After an 18-months strategy review, the policymakers agreed to seek consumer-price growth of 2% over the medium-term with an asymmetric aim.

On Sunday, the ECB President Christine Lagarde announced that the central bank would renew its direction on monetary stimulus at its following meeting and intimated that a new policy might be launched in 2022 to support the European economy to succeed in the contemporary bond-buying plan. During the previous week, the ECB revised its stand on inflation, possibly providing CPI to soar higher than its 2% goal if the circumstance delivers.

Besides Europe, the U.S. is due to report inflation numbers for June, whereas, on Wednesday and Thursday, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to testify in the presence of Congress. Powell may potentially provide hints on the central bank’s thought over tapering.

Furthermore, China will deliver second-quarter GDP figures on Thursday amid worries they could disappoint, given a swift easing in monetary policy during the previous week. The number of Covid-19 cases proceeds to grow in considerable sections of Asia. At the same time, the U.S. had the most cases since mid-May as the delta variant covers limited vaccinated areas of the nation.

This strategy review was the first by the ECB since 2003, which included a changed inflation goal to the symmetric target of 2% along with ECB allowing a transitory period in which inflation could remain moderately above the target. The climate change considerations will also be included in monetary policy operations. The new strategy will be applied to start with July 22 monetary policy meeting. The Governing Council has intentions to assess its strategy periodically with the next assessment projected for 2025. The single currency Euro gained strength against the U.S. dollar after the release of strategy review from the European Central Bank and pushed EUR/USD higher on board.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Trade Balance reduced to 12.6B against the forecasted 15,8B and weighed on Euro that further capped gains in EUR/USD. From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from the U.S. for last week rose to 373K against the predicted 345K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1794 1.1879

11746 1.1916

1.1708 1.1964

Pivot Point: 1.1831

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a slightly bullish bias at the 1.1877 level, facing immediate resistance at the 1.1879 level. A bullish crossover of 1.1879 level can expose the EUR/USD pair until the next resistance area of 1.1908. At the same time, the support continues to hold around the 1.1850 mark. The 50 periods EMA supports the EUR/USD pair at the 1.1840 level, and the odds of a bullish bias remain strong over this level. The traders will be keeping their eyes on the 1.1879 level as a violation of this can expose the pair towards the 1.1908 level. All the best!

Symmetrical Triangle Intact

On Monday, the BTC/USD is trading with a bullish bias at 34,500 range as the Deputy Director of the Central Bank of China stated that Bitcoin and stable coins were speculative tools with potential risks threatening financial security and social stability. He also stated that bitcoin and stable coins were also being used for money laundering and illegal economic activities.

According to the Deputy Director, Fen Yufei, the stable coins could potentially bring risks and challenges to the international monetary system. He acknowledged that the bank was worried about this fact and was taking some measures against it. Yufei said that the central bank was continually studying and observing the private digital currencies; however, at the same time, it was also vigorously promoting and improving its own central bank digital currency, Renminbi.

Meanwhile, Israeli officials have said that they will take action to seize cryptocurrencies from 84 wallet addresses. These wallets could hold millions of dollars worth of cryptocurrencies. Additionally, the officials suspected that these addresses belong to Hamas. The estimated accumulated amount held by the wallets is $7.7 million. Furthermore, the Bank of Thailand issued the latest warning to crypto holders against using digital currencies for payments, adding extra pressure on BTC/USD. The bank warned crypto holders who use their digital assets as a medium of exchange that if their practices become widespread, it might take strong measures to regulate the cryptos. On Thursday, the central bank of Thailand said that anyone who is involved in the business of digital assets for goods and services, as a recipient or sender, could face risks, including money laundering, theft, and price volatility. The bank also reiterated that Bitcoin and Ether, including other cryptocurrencies, were not legal tender in the country and warned of consequences from regulators.

As per JPMorgan Chase & Co, El Salvador's announcement of Bitcoin as an authorized tender could produce challenges for both the country and the cryptocurrency. Lately, the leading cryptocurrency's Bitcoin trading volumes surpass $40 billion to $50 billion per day, but most of that is internalized by significant exchanges.

In addition to this, the U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) declared an industry-wide alert about potential attacks on exchanges and crypto holders this week. The institution stated that there are warnings to actively pursuing virtual asset platforms to grasp these assets, producing financial losses in the process. Sim swapping, account stealing, and tech support personnel are the means to fulfil these attacks.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

31978.2 33854.2

31082.6 34834.6

30102.2 35730.2

Pivot Point: 32958.6

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

The leading cryptocurrency has bounced off the support level of 32,065 level to trade at 32,945. On the 4-hour chart above, Bitcoin has violated the symmetrical triangle pattern adding bearish pressure on the pair. The breakout of the 33,750 support level exposed bitcoin price towards the next support area of 32,065 level, and this double bottom support level pushed the pair back to the 32,934 mark. At the moment, Bitcoin's immediate resistance stays at 33,418 level that's being extended by 50 periods EMA level. Bullish crossover of 33,418 level exposes the BTC/USD price towards the resistance level of 34,999 level. All the best!

G20 Meetings in Focus!

Gold prices were closed at $1804.10 after placing a high of $1819.00 and a low of $1794.20. Gold extended its gains and continued its bullish streak for the 7th consecutive session on Thursday. However, the gains were a little too limited as the prices remained primarily flat throughout the session. The U.S. dollar index that gauges the greenback value against the basket of six major rival currencies remained on the back foot on Thursday. The DXY dropped to 92.24 level amid the declining U.S. Treasury Yields. The yields on the benchmark 10-year note continued their bearish streak for the 9th consecutive session and reached their lowest since mid-February level at 1.251%. Lower Treasury yields decrease the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding yellow metal and support the gold prices. The precious metal was also supported on the day because of the concerns over a recovery in the U.S. labour market and the Delta variant of the coronavirus.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from the U.S. for last week surged to 373K against the projected 345K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that helped gold remain green for the day. The rising number of jobless claims from Americans depicted a weak U.S. labor recovery that weighed on the U.S. dollar and helped gold prices on Thursday. Meanwhile, the fight against the coronavirus pandemic in some wealthier nations has become a race between the rollout of vaccines and the highly contagious delta variant. As per the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the researchers were struggling to confirm the effectiveness of vaccines against the highly contagious variant of the coronavirus that was first identified in India, the Delta variant, which accounts for more than half of the new cases in the U.S.

According to the Health Ministry of Israel, the Pfizer & BioNTech vaccine, which is considered one of the most effective shots, offered only 64% protection against the Delta variant. Given the rising spread of this variant, Sydney extended its lockdown by a week till July 16; Singapore announced that it would not use Sinovac to its people in its national vaccine campaign. The United States reported to dispatch 2 million Moderna vaccine doses to Vietnam, Turkmenistan made the coronavirus vaccination mandatory for all adults. At the same time, England’s chief medical officer warned of a rise in long-covid in which symptoms persist for months among young people.

The Hype around the Delta variant caused a sudden increase in the value of yellow metal prices after Pfizer Inc. revealed its plans to U.S. regulators to authorize a booster dose of its coronavirus vaccine within the next month. The spread of the extremely contagious Delta variant and the risks of reinfection six months after inoculation urged scientists to recommend a booster shot of the vaccine. However, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease and Control Prevention said in a joint statement that Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster coronavirus vaccine shot at this time.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1792.54 1817.34

1780.97 1830.57

1767.74 1842.14

Pivot point: 1805.77

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

Gold is trading with a neutral bias at the 1,801 level on Friday as investors await G20 Meetings. In the 4 hour timeframe, the precious metal gold has formed an upward channel that supports it around 1,796 levels. On the lower side, the breakout of 1,796 levels exposes gold prices towards the next support area of 1,78l. At the same time, the resistance stays at 1,807 levels today. The bullish breakout of 1,807 levels can lead the gold price towards 1,817 levels today. The MACD is tossing above and below 0 levels that’s suggesting indecision among investors. Since we don’t have any significant events from the United States, investor’s focus will remain on the technical levels today. All the best!

Bearish Engulfing to Drive Selling Trend!

The EUR/USD was closed at $1.1842 after placing a high of $1.1868 and a low of $1.1783. EUR/USD currency pair reversed its course on Thursday after declining for the previous three consecutive sessions. The currency pair managed to recover most of its last daily losses in a single day amid the renewed weakness in the U.S dollar. The declining U.S. Treasury yields that reached their lowest level since February 14 at 1.25% weighed heavily on the greenback and dragged it against the basket of six major currencies. The DXY fell to 92.24 level on Thursday as the Unemployment Claims rose and dismissed the hopes for an earlier than expected easing of stimulus measures by the Fed.

On Thursday, the European Central Bank raised its inflation goals and said it might let the inflation overshoot the target for a while. After an 18-months strategy review, the policymakers agreed to seek consumer-price growth of 2% over the medium-term with an asymmetric aim.

According to ECB, when interest rates are close to lower limits, the economy will need a forceful monetary stimulus that could suggest a temporary period in which inflation is moderately above target. Christine Lagarde said that the new formulation removes any possible ambiguity and resolutely conveys that 2% is not a ceiling. She added that the strategy review was agreed unanimously as the bank wanted to avoid the negative deviation that will entrench inflation projections.

This strategy review was the first by the ECB since 2003, which included a changed inflation goal to the symmetric target of 2% along with ECB allowing a transitory period in which inflation could remain moderately above the target. The climate change considerations will also be included in monetary policy operations. The new strategy will be applied to start with July 22 monetary policy meeting. The Governing Council has intentions to assess its strategy periodically with the next assessment projected for 2025. The single currency Euro gained strength against the U.S. dollar after the release of strategy review from the European Central Bank and pushed EUR/USD higher on board.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Trade Balance reduced to 12.6B against the forecasted 15,8B and weighed on Euro that further capped gains in EUR/USD. From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Unemployment Claims from the U.S. for last week rose to 373K against the predicted 345K and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.1794 1.1879

11746 1.1916

1.1708 1.1964

Pivot Point: 1.1831

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a strong bearish bias at the 1.1832 level, disrupting the support level of 1.1837 level. On the downside, the major currency pair has the potential to plunge until the next support area of 1.1797 and 1.1780 levels. On the 4- hour timeframe, the EUR/USD pair is facing resistance at 1.1849 level that’s being extended by 50 periods EMA levels along with a downward trendline. Closing the bearish engulfing candle on the 4-hour timeframe exposes the EUR/USD price towards 1.1807 and 1.1780 support levels. The leading technical tool MACD is also trading in a bearish zone; therefore, the selling trend dominates on the EUR/USD pair today. All the best!