Technical Analysis

Gold – XAU/USD Analysis - May 18, 2021

By LHFX Technical Analysis
May 18, 2021

Safe Haven Appeal Triggers!

Gold prices were closed at $1869.55 after placing a high of $1869.75 and a low of $1844.00. Gold extended its gains for the 4th consecutive session and reached its highest since January 2021. The rising prices of yellow metal could be attributed to the weakness in the U.S. dollar and losses in the benchmark U.S. stock indexes. The U.S. Dollar Index that measures the greenback's value against the basket of six major currencies extended its losses and continued its bearish streak for 3rd consecutive session and reached a $90.15 level on Monday. The U.S. Treasury yield on the 10-year note dropped to 1.605% in the early session on Monday but managed to recover most of its daily losses and reached 1.652%.

Meanwhile, the benchmark stock indexes of the NYSE fell and posted losses on Monday that helped gold gathered its strength against the U.S. dollar. The NASDAQ fell by -0.60% and reached $13,196.57, S&P 500 dropped by -0.25% to $4142.69, and Dow Jones Industrial Average declined by -0.16% and reached $34,176.65.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, Empire State Manufacturing Index rose to 24.3 against the forecasted 23.9 and supported the U.S. dollar, and capped further gains in the yellow metal. At 19:00 GMT, the NAHB Housing Market Index remained flat as expected 83. On Monday, the Fed Chair Richard Clarida said that the U.S. economic growth could hit 7% this year as labor and other supply bottlenecks get resolved, and the recovery accelerates. He also added that it might take more time to re-open a $20 trillion economy than it did to shut it down.

Meanwhile, the Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic also said on Monday that he was comfortable with the ultra-loose policy of the central bank even as inflation was gaining steam in the economy.

Bostic repeated that there was still an 8 million jobs shortage compared to the pre-pandemic level. Until this gap is closed, Fed will likely keep policies in a very strongly accommodative stance. Bostic considers rising inflation as a positive sign and has often said that the most recent price increases were temporary factors that will disappear later this year.

Furthermore, another factor included in the rising prices of safe-haven metal was the prevailing war-like situation between Palestine and Israel. According to a human rights group, Amnesty International, Israel's shocking disregard for Palestinian civilians might be a war crime.

On Monday, the group of human rights stated that the Israeli government has engaged in a pattern of deadly attacks against residential homes in Gaza. According to Amnesty International, the Israeli government carried out bombing raids without giving the innocent men, women, and children inside any time to escape. This act by Israel may amount to a crime against humanity and a war crime. The escalating tensions between Israel and Palestine could trigger a war, and these fears raised an appeal for safe-haven metal that supported rising prices of gold prices on Monday.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1863.80 1874.70

1844.35 1889.15

1837.90 1900.60

Pivot Point: 1863.25

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

Gold is trading strongly bullish at 1,870, having violated the double top resistance level of 1,844 on the daily timeframe. Closing of candles above 1,844 level supports a solid upward trend in gold. At the moment, gold has entered the overbought zone and facing solid resistance at 1,874 level. On the 4-hour timeframe, gold has also closed Doji candles below 1,874 level that demonstrates that buys are exhausted, and sellers are looming around the corner. Typically, such scenarios drive bearish correction in security, and gold can exhibit downward correction in case of failure to break 1,874. Gold's immediate support stays at 1,863 and 1,844 areas along with resistance at 1,874 and 1,889. All the best!


Technical Analysis

DOGE/USD Analysis – May 18, 2021

By LHFX Technical Analysis
May 18, 2021
DOGE-USD.jpg

Symmetrical Triangle Pattern!

The DOGE/USD was closed at $0.487220 after placing a high of $0.513340 and a low of $0.475650. DOGE coin dropped on Monday and posted losses for the day mainly due to the latest comments from Elon Musk. The CEO of Tesla and SpaceX said that he might develop his crypto if Dogecoin, the crypto that launched as a joke, cannot do what he wants. Elon Musk has been blamed for many movements in the cryptocurrency market after his company decided to acquire $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin earlier this year.

Recently, the billionaire, who calls himself the doge father for supporting DOGE, has called out bitcoin to contribute to the growing use of fossil fuel and the consequences that affect the environment. In his latest tweet, Musk said that cryptocurrency was a good idea on many levels, and he believed that it has a promising future, but he strongly disagreed that this could not come at a great cost to the environment. After his tweet, bitcoin prices a steep decline and weighed on the whole cryptocurrency market due to its impact on the market. Dogecoin also followed the trend and declined on Monday.

Meanwhile, when Musk was asked if he would start his cryptocurrency to do all that he wants. He responded in favor of Dogecoin. He answered that only if Dogecoin cannot do it would he go for making his cryptocurrency. Tesla has repeatedly said that Musk wants a coin with significant low transaction fees and excellent energy efficiency.

With his favorable tweet for Dogecoin, Musk doubled down on his bet that Dogecoin can become a currency that addresses Tesla’s new set of environmental requirements. Musk said that he was working with Dogecoin developers to improve the currency and hoped that it could evolve to be more energy-efficient in the future.

On the other hand, the co-founder of Dogecoin, Billy Markus, said that he had made the Dogecoin in just two hours, and he did not think of its environmental impact. These comments from the co-founder of Dogecoin added weight to its value as Musk has decided not to take payments in Bitcoin due to its impact on the environment. If the same will happen with Dogecoin, then it could cause a decline in dogecoin value.

DOGE/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

0.477756 0.544416

0.441283 0.574603

0.411096 0.611076

Pivot Point: 0.507943

DOGE/USD - Technical Outlook

The DOGE/USD pair is trading sideways at 0.4922 level. On the 4 hour chart, the pair has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern that demonstrates indecision among traders. It looks like the investors are waiting for some solid news to trigger a breakout in Doge. Typically, the symmetrical triangle breakout on either side, depending upon the news release; therefore, the traders will be keeping a closer eye on the pair to capture any significant price action. The DOGE/USD has immediate support at 0.4660, and below this, the next support stays at 0.3735. Conversely, the resistance holds at 0.5273 and 0.5925. All the best!


Technical Analysis

Gold – XAU/USD Analysis - May 17, 2021

By LHFX Technical Analysis
May 17, 2021
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Three White Soliders Pattern!

Gold prices were closed at $1843.85 after placing a high of $1845.50 and a low of $1819.45. Gold extended its gains on Friday and reached the $1845 level on the back of the weak U.S. dollar amid poor-than-expected U.S. economic data. Gold posted about 0.8% gain for the day on Friday and a 0.3% gain for the week. It was a second straight weekly gain posted by gold due to decreased strength in the U.S. dollar. The survey from the University of Michigan said that U.S. Consumer Confidence dropped in May as Americans started worrying about inflation and its impact on their incomes.

The Federal Reserve acknowledged that prices were rising due to disrupted supply chains that were struggling to cope with the demand in an economy after re-opening from pandemic-induced lockdowns. However, the central bank said that these inflationary pressures were temporary and will fade eventually with the recovery in the economy. Fed has also said that there was no need to raise interest rates yet.

On the data front, at 17:30 GMT, Retail Sales for April dropped to 0.0% against the expected 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that pushed gold prices higher. The Import Prices remained flat with the expectations. At 17:32 GMT, the Core Retail Sales also dropped to -0.8% against the forecasted 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in gold prices. At 18:15 GMT, the Industrial Production for April also declined to 0.7% against the projected 0.9% and weighed on the U.S. dollar and pushed gold prices higher.

The Capacity Utilization Rate remained flat at an expected 75.0%. At 19:00 GMT, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment for May reduced to 82.8 against the estimated 90.2 and weighed on the U.S. dollar and added further strength in rising prices of gold. Business Inventories remained flat at 0.3%. The Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations also remained the same as expected 4.6%.

The poor than expected macroeconomic data from the U.S. on Friday weighed heavily on the greenback as the U.S. Dollar Index that measures the value of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies fell to $90.27 on Friday. The U.S. Treasury yields on a 10-year note also declined on Friday and reached 1.625%. Furthermore, an Independent Panel for Pandemic Preparedness and Responses released a report on global handling of coronavirus pandemic that stated that global crisis could have been avoided if proper measures had been taken.

The panel concluded that WHO should have declared a public health emergency sooner, while countries took too long to implement measures to curb the spread of the virus. The panel also said that to avoid such a crisis in the future, the WHO should be granted more financing and more authority in publishing outbreak-related information. The panel also urged rich countries to donate at least one billion vaccine doses to COVAX by September and emphasized the importance of agreeing on voluntary licensing and transfer of vaccine technology to increase global supply. This report added weight to the already declining U.S. dollar and pushed gold higher. Meanwhile, the rising tensions between Palestine and Israel after airstrikes and missile attacks added to the fears of a new war that led to the risk-off market sentiment that ultimately supported safe-haven yellow metal prices.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1812.89 1833.19

1800.52 1841.12

1792.59 1853.49

Pivot Point: 1820.82

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

Gold is trading strongly bullish at 1,853, having violated the double top resistance level of 1,844 on the daily timeframe. Above this, gold’s next immediate resistance stays at 1,854. A violation of this exposes gold towards 1,874 areas. At the same time, the support continues to be at 1,844 level. The RSI and MACD support a buying trend, along with the 20 and 50 EMA held at 1,807 level. Gold has closed three white soliders pattern that demonstrates srong bullish bias amoung investors on the daily timeframe. All the best!


Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – May 17, 2021

By LHFX Technical Analysis
May 17, 2021
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Choppy Session in Play

The EUR/USD closed at 1.2140 after placing a high of 1.2150 and a low of 1.2070. EUR/USD pair rose on Friday after declining for two consecutive days and recovered most of its previous day’s losses amid the weakness in the U.S. dollar. On Friday, the European Central Bank released its latest minutes from the meeting held in March. The central bank noted that they succeeded in maintaining favorable financing conditions as the recent measures had been effective.

ECB also stated that the risks to activity had become more balanced as they were tilted to the upside. This hawkish comment came after so long as the risks had been on the downside due to slow vaccination campaigns in the EU. However, if the vaccination program goes well, there are more chances that ECB could deliver more clues on tightening. The Governing Council of the European Central bank did not discuss any tapering of the bond program. Furthermore, the minutes from the meeting also suggested that countries across Europe with more service-dependent were anticipated to improve at a slower pace despite re-opening. Euro became strong after the release of minutes from ECB and pushed EUR/USD pair higher on Friday.

On the other hand, the U.S. dollar remained weak for the day due to a weaker-than-expected macroeconomic data release. The U.S. Dollar Index fell to $90.27, and the U.S. Treasury yields on the 10-year note dropped to 1.625% on Friday that added further pressure on the U.S. dollar and pushed EUR/USD higher on board.

There was no data to be released from the Europe side on the data front, but from the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, Retail Sales for April declined to 0.0% against the estimated 1.0% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that pushed EUR/USD pair higher. The Import Prices remained flat with the projections of 0.7%. At 17:32 GMT, the Core Retail Sales declined to -0.8% against the anticipated 0.5% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that added further gains in EUR/USD. At 18:15 GMT, the Industrial Production for April also fell to 0.7% against the predicted 0.9% and weighed on the U.S. dollar that supported EUR/USD gains. The Capacity Utilization Rate remained flat as expected 75.0%.

At 19:00 GMT, the Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment for May dropped to 82.8 against the anticipated 90.2 and weighed on the U.S. dollar that pushed EUR/USD higher. Business Inventories remained flat at 0.3% expected. The Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations also remained flat as projected 4.6%. The dismal economic data from the U.S. added pressure on the already declining U.S. dollar and supported the rising prices of the EU/USD currency pair on Friday.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2050 1.2108

1.2021 1.2137

1.1992 1.2165

Pivot Point: 1.2079

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD is trading choppy from 1.2150 to 1.2120 level. Technical side of the EUR/USD pair has remain mostly unchanged as the direct currency pair is gaining immediate support at the 1.2067 level, and violation of this level exposes the EUR/USD level until the next support area of 1.1992 level. On the 4-hour chart, an upward trendline supports the EUR/USD pair at 1.2067, and below this, the EUR/USD will come under selling pressure. However, holding of EUR/USD over 1.2064 level is keeping the pair bullish. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has closed a bearish engulfing candle which is also adding selling pressure on the pair. The EUR/USD immediate resistance holds at 1.2150 and 1.2178 along with support around 1.2120 and 1.2064. All the best!


Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – May 17, 2021

By LHFX Technical Analysis
May 17, 2021
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Bitcoin Takes a Nosedive!

The BTC/USD is currently trading at $44012.0 and is on the course for another bearish day. Bitcoin has been declining continuously since12th May. BTC/USD tried to recover its previous daily losses but failed and remained flat for the day. The latest decline in Bitcoin prices was due to a recent tweet from CEO of Tesla Elon Musk that implied that the electric vehicle maker has sold or may sell the rest of its bitcoin holdings. Musk has been a big-time supporter of cryptocurrencies and has also helped digital coins, including bitcoin, to surge many times in the past year.

In February, Tesla revealed that it bought $1.5 billion worth of bitcoin. The company later said that it registered a net gain of $101 million from sales of bitcoin during the quarter and boosted the company's net profit to a record high in the first quarter. Another reason behind the declining prices of Bitcoin was the latest statement from the CFO of Square, Amrita Ahuja, that the company has no plans to purchase more bitcoin. This statement came in after Elon Musk's announcement that Tesla would no longer accept BTC.

Square, alongside Tesla and MicroStrategy, is among the top tech companies who have been supporters of bitcoin holdings as a hedge against economic inflation. A negative statement from such a company related to Bitcoin added pressure on BTC/USD prices and dragged it below the $45,000 level. On Monday, Bitcoin prices dropped to a three-month lowest level as investors started selling crypto coins in the wake of the latest hinting from Elon Musk that he was considering or may have already sold some of its bitcoin holdings.

Furthermore, the declining pressure among cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin, was raised over the weekend after Financial journalist Edward Chancellor predicted that launching central bank digital currencies could be catastrophic for Bitcoin. Many central banks of numerous leading economies like China, Japan, and the U.S. are moving forward and researching the option of launching their digital currency. According to Edward, the projects of central bank digital currencies are hazardous and could lead to the destruction of bitcoin.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

44795.2 48915.2

43007.6 51247.6

40675.2 53035.2

Pivot Point: 47127.6

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

The BTC/USD pair is trading sharply bearish at 44,971 level, having dropped from 49,800 high to the low level of 42,029. On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin has formed a bearish channel that's supporting strong selling bias among investors. However, the channel is extending support at 42,900 area. Closing of candles above this level makes it more robust support, and BTC is exhibiting a bullish correction above 42,900 support. The leading crypto pair's next resistance stays at 45,500 and 47,510 levels. At the same time, a bullish breakout of 47,510 level exposes the pair towards the 49,300 mark. Considering the leading indicators such as RSI and MACD, bearish bias dominates Bitcoin today. All the best!


Technical Analysis

Gold – XAU/USD Analysis - May 14, 2021

By LHFX Technical Analysis
May 14, 2021

U.S. Retail Sales Ahead!

Gold prices are trading slightly bullish at 1,834, having bounced off over the support area of 1,812 level. During the early European session, the precious metal gold remains under pressure amid the stronger U.S. dollar. The stronger greenback makes precious metals more costly for foreign investors, although a pullback in the U.S. Treasury yields restricted losses for the safe-haven metal.

The U.S. dollar and yields mounted on the back of stronger-than-expected inflation figures released on Wednesday. At the same time, the dollar gains more bullish momentum on the back of stronger than expected jobless claims data. During the week ending May 8, the advance numbers for seasonally adjusted jobless claims was 473K, a drop of 34k from the previous week's improved level. This released data was the lowest level for initial unemployment claims since March 14, 2020, as the figures were 256K.

The jobless claims figure for the previous week was improved by 9K from 498K to 507K. This week, the U.S. Department of Labor reported jobless claims of 473K vs. 487K forecast while the figure was 507K during the previous week. Improved economic data helped the U.S. dollar gain bullish momentum and pressured the precious metal gold. The safe-haven appeal triggered the fears of war between Israel and Gaza. Israel military and Palestinian militants in the Gaza strip exchanged fires and escalated the fears of full-scale war. Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes on Gaza, destroyed three tower blocks, and killed senior Hamas officials. In response to this, Palestinian militants fired more than 1000 rockets into Israel. The UN feared that the rising tensions between countries might start a full-scale war, which raised the need for a safe-haven appeal and supported gold prices.

During the U.S. session, the Census Bureau will be releasing the Retail Sales data for the U.S. economy. Economists are expecting a sharp dip in retail sales from 9.8% to 1.0%, while core retail sales are expected to drop from 8.4% to 0.5%.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1821.99 1846.39

1807.82 1856.62

1797.59 1870.79

Pivot Point: 1832.22

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

Gold is trading bullish at 1,833, having bounced off the support area of 1,814 level. Gold has reentered a trading range of 1,846 - 1,820. On the daily timeframe, gold is soaring towards the triple top resistance level of 1,844 level. The violation of this opens up additional room for buying until the next resistance area of 1,856 and 1,870. On the 4 hour timeframe, gold has crossed above 20 periods EMA at 1,829 level and 50 periods EMA at 1,814 level. Both of these EMA are support gold prices and are demonstrating odds of bullish trend continued until resistance area of 1,844. Later today, the focus will stay on the U.S. retail sales data as it can drive further price action in gold prices. All the best!


Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – May 14, 2021

By LHFX Technical Analysis
May 14, 2021
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Bullish Correction in Play!

The BTC/USD crypto pair managed to stop its early-day crash moves and took a new position around above the $50,000 level. The BTC/USD pair dropped almost 13% of its value over the last 24 hours after the tweet from Elon Musk highlighting Tesla's suspension of bitcoin payment acceptance due to sky-high energy needs.

Elon Musk's crypto-supporting comments have been seen as one of crypto's biggest advocates over the last few months, which in turn, Bitcoin (BTC) has performed "very well" over the previous few months. Although, the gains were short-lived as Musk's latest comments sent bitcoin prices into a tailspin, quickly sparking a steep selloff. Conversely, the upbeat market mood and bearish U.S. dollar were considered one of the key factors that help the BTC/USD pair limit its deeper losses. The BTC/USD crypto pair is trading at 50,334.8 and consolidating in the range between 48,874.0 - 50,811.2.

The BTC/USD pair has been bearing intense pressure from sellers this week as multiple news triggers collectively impacted and pressed to make it bearish. A recent decline in the global stocks or the recent downbeat Musk's comments, everything weighs on the BTC value. As per the keyword, Elon Musk said that Tesla would suspend customer purchases of cars with bitcoin (BTC), pinning the decision on the network's power consumption as the catalyst.

Another reason behind the declining prices of Bitcoin could be the latest statement from the Chairman of the investment firm Bain Capital. Steve Pagliuca, the Chairman of Bain Capital, said that Bitcoin was hard to be seen as a viable currency yet. He added that the stability of the primary cryptocurrency was not satisfactory, and it has a long way to go to be trusted in lots of places. These negative comments from the Chairman of an investment firm weighed on the Bitcoin prices and dragged them lower for the day.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

49068.6 50448.3

48443.7 51203.2

47688.8 51828.1

Pivot Point: 49823.4

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

On Friday, the BTC/USD pair continues to feel the bearish pressure as it consolidates below the psychological resistance level of 50,000. A day before, the BTC/USD plunged dramatically, falling from 52,635 level to 44,900 level. However, the pair has recovered most of its losses already. At the moment, Bitcoin's support holds at 48,850 and 46,980 levels. While the resistance continues to hold around 52,630 level and bullish breakout, this can expose the leading crypto pair towards 53,462 levels. On the 4 hour timeframe, the 20 & 50 periods EMA are extending resistances at 53,465 areas. Considering the technical indicators, the bullish correction has started in BTC/USD pair. All the best!


Technical Analysis

Gold – XAU/USD Analysis - May 13, 2021

By LHFX Technical Analysis
May 13, 2021

U.S. Jobless Claims In Focus!

Gold dropped more than 1% on Wednesday and extended its losses amid the comeback in the U.S. dollar and the U.S. Treasury yields after the release of inflation data. The rising prices of the dollar and U.S Treasury yields reduced the appetite for non-yielding bullion and dragged it on the downside. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the greenback's value against the basket of six major currencies, rebounded on Wednesday and jumped to $90.79. The U.S. Treasury yield on benchmark 10-year note extended its bullish momentum and rose for the 5th consecutive session to reach 1.695%.

Both the U.S. dollar and yields rose on the back of stronger-than-expected highly awaited inflation data released on Wednesday. Logically, gold should have rallied after the higher inflation data due to its status as a store of value and hedge against inflation. But market participants were highly anticipating it already, and the rising bond yields made it difficult for gold to attract investment due to its non-yielding status. At 17:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index in April rose to 0.8% from the expectations of 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar. In April, the Core CPI also surged to 0.9% from the forecasted 0.3% and supported the U.S. dollar.

The rising numbers of inflation raised hopes that the Federal Reserve will be now forced to hike interest rates earlier than expected in 2023. These hopes pushed U.S. Treasury yields higher on board and supported the greenback that ultimately weighed on yellow metal prices.

These hopes for an interest rate hike sooner than expected were downplayed by the Federal Reserve, Richard Clarida, on Wednesday. Clarida affirmed the comments made by Jerome Powell that higher U.S. inflationary signals were temporary and did not require a rate hike.

He said that it was not yet the time to pull back on support for the economy, though he also added that the Fed would not hesitate to use tools if the risk of persistent upward drift in inflation emerged.

Furthermore, according to the Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Raphael Bostic, the U.S. economy was in a transitional period. It has reopened from the pandemic, and the inflation was likely to remain volatile, and workers were closely considering their options. Bostic said that both demand and supply of workers, goods, and services were unsettled now, and hence, a lot of volatility in prices and pricing will be seen in the coming months.

The comments from Fed officials added further strength to the U.S. dollar and weighed heavily on the prices of yellow metal on Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the risk-off market sentiment emerged late Wednesday after the fears of war escalated between Israel and Gaza. Israel military and Palestinian militants in the Gaza strip exchanged fires and escalated the fears of full-scale war. Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes on Gaza, destroyed three tower blocks, and killed senior Hamas officials. In response to this, Palestinian militants fired more than 1000 rockets into Israel. The UN feared that the rising tensions between countries might start a full-scale war, which raised the need for a safe-haven appeal that capped further losses in gold prices on Wednesday.

Gold Intraday Technical Level

Support Resistance

1821.99 1846.39

1807.82 1856.62

1797.59 1870.79

Pivot Point: 1832.22

Gold - XAU/USD - Technical Outlook

Gold is trading bearish at 1,819, having violated a narrow trading range of 250 pips. Gold has broken the trading range of 1,846 - 1,820. On the daily timeframe, gold is heading lower to complete 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 1,814 level, and violation of this opens up additional room for retracement until 61.8% level of 1,799. On the 4 hour timeframe, gold has crossed below 20 periods EMA which demonstrates bearish bias in gold. The leading indicators such as RSI and MACD are neutral, such as the RSI value has dropped below 50, and the MACD is still above 0. This indicates indecision among traders. Later today, the focus will stay on the U.S. Jobless Claims data as it has the potential to drive volatility in the gold market. All the best!


Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Analysis – May 13, 2021

By LHFX Technical Analysis
May 13, 2021
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Eurozone Enjoys Ascension Day Holiday

The EUR/USD fell on Wednesday amid the rising prices of the U.S. Dollar and the U.S. Treasury yields after the release of U.S. inflation data on the day. In April, the strong inflation report added strength in the U.S. treasury yields on rising hopes that Fed will raise interest rates given increased prices.

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) that measures the greenback's value against the basket of six major currencies jumped on Wednesday and reached $90.79. At the same time, the U.S. Treasury yield on benchmark 10-year note rose for the 5th consecutive session and reached 1.695%. The rising yields and dollar prices kept the currency pair EUR/USD under pressure for the day. The EUR/USD pair remained under pressure as the data from the European Union also remained against the single currency Euro on Wednesday after CPI from France and Industrial production from the whole bloc came in short of expectations.

On the data front, at 11:00 GMT, the German Final CPI remained flat at 0.7%. At 11:45 GMT, French Final CPI for April declined to 0.1% against the forecasted 0.2% and weighed on the single currency Euro and added further EUR/USD pair losses. At 14:00 GMT, the Industrial Production in March reduced to 0.1% from the expected 0.8% and weighed on Euro and dragged EUR/USD pair further lower. From the U.S. side, at 17:30 GMT, the Consumer Price Index in April surged to 0.8% from the projections of 0.2% and supported the U.S. dollar and added further losses in EUR/USD pair. In April, the Core CPI also rose to 0.9% from the estimated 0.3%, supported the U.S. dollar, and dragged EUR/USD pair even lower.

Meanwhile, the world's biggest holiday group, TUI Group, said on Wednesday that Europe's summer holiday season could be saved. TUI group expects a strong 2021 summer season as the last-minute bookings increased due to the rising level of vaccinations. The company will operate 75% of pre-pandemic capacity after getting hit hard during the last six months. The world's biggest holiday group reported a 1.3 billion euro loss for the six months ended in March and said that the worst had left behind as European resorts have started to open. This news kept the losses in EUR/USD pair limited for the day as it supported the single currency Euro.

Furthermore, the currency pair EUR/USD was also declining on Wednesday as the risk-off market sentiment emerged in the market after the fears of war between Israel and Palestine escalated. The United Nations feared a full-scale war after Israel militants and the military of Palestine at Gaza strip had a deadly exchange of fires on Wednesday. Israel carried out hundreds of airstrikes on Gaza, destroyed three tower blocks, and killed senior Hamas officials. In retaliation to this, more than 1000 rockets were fired by Palestinian militants into Israel. The UN was alarmed that the rising tensions between both countries might start a full-scale war which raised the risk-off market sentiment and dragged the riskier assets like EUR/USD.

EURUSD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

1.2118 1.2178

1.2091 1.2209

1.2059 1.2237

Pivot Point: 1.2150

EUR/USD - Technical Outlook

The EUR/USD fell dramatically from 1.2126 to 1.2073 level. Currently, the pair is gaining immediate support at the 1.2067 level, and violation of this level exposes the EUR/USD level until the next support area of 1.1992 level. On the 4-hour chart, an upward trendline supports the EUR/USD pair at 1.2067, and below this, the EUR/USD will come under selling pressure. However, holding of EUR/USD over 1.2064 level is keeping the pair bullish. On the 4-hour chart, the EUR/USD pair has closed a bearish engulfing candle which is also adding selling pressure on the pair. The EUR/USD immediate resistance holds at 1.2130 and 1.2175 along with support around 1.2064 and 1.1992. All the best!


Technical Analysis

BTC/USD Analysis – May 13, 2021

By LHFX Technical Analysis
May 13, 2021
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Dramatic Dip in Bitcoin!

Bitcoin crashed and fell below the $54,000 level on Wednesday after the United States Securities and Exchange Commission announced a warning to investors regarding the risk associated with the first-ever cryptocurrency – Bitcoin. The traditional payment methods paused during the pandemic as the world stood still and helped the digital assets, including cryptocurrencies, to move at the forefront of finance. The digital asset was pushed forward like never before after the physical coin was shorted. The rising demand for digital coins led to a shortage of cryptocurrencies on exchanges like Coinbase Pro and elsewhere.

The real reason behind the shortage of cryptocurrencies at exchanges was the investors’ behavior to hold the asset even the prices were declining. After the sudden bitcoin fall below $50,000, investors are still reluctant to sell their positions, hoping that they will reach $100,000 or more this year. However, they could be wrong, and this was one of the major factors that the U.S. SEC warned investors to consider risk as Bitcoin was highly speculative carefully.

Meanwhile, an Australian computer scientist, Craig Wright, who alleges that he created bitcoin, launched a London High Court lawsuit against 16 software developers to secure 4 billion pounds worth of bitcoin that he claimed to be stolen from him.

The court has approved the attempt to legally sue a dozen developers working on Bitcoin, Bitcoin Cash, Bitcoin Cash ABC, and Bitcoin SV networks. The self-proclaimed Satoshi Nakamoto will go after the developers to make them recover over $4 billion of BTC supposedly stolen from his computer last year. This news added pressure on Bitcoin prices that remained below $54,000 on Wednesday.

Another reason behind the declining prices of Bitcoin could be the latest statement from the Chairman of the investment firm Bain Capital. Steve Pagliuca, the Chairman of Bain Capital, said that Bitcoin was hard to be seen as a viable currency yet. He added that the stability of the primary cryptocurrency was not satisfactory, and it has a long way to go to be trusted in lots of places.

These negative comments from the Chairman of an investment firm weighed on the Bitcoin prices and dragged them lower for the day.

On the flip side, a licensed crypto-to-cash exchange, Moneygram International Inc. and Coinme, announced on Wednesday the launch of a new partnership to enable the cash funding and payout of digital currency purchase and sale. It means Moneygram will start letting its customers buy and sell bitcoin at 12,000 locations in partnership with Coinme. It will expand the international market for the crypto king in the second half of 2021.

BTC/USD Intraday Technical Levels

Support Resistance

55617.6 57563.6

54784.3 58676.3

53671.6 59509.6

Pivot Point: 56730.3

BTC/USD - Technical Outlook

By the time of covering this update, the BTC/USD has plunged dramatically, falling from 52,635 level to 44,900 level. But soon after testing the 44,900 support level, the Bitcoin reversed to trade at 50,600 level. Right now, Bitcoin’s immediate resistance holds at 52,685 level, while the pair can gain support at 46,600 and 43,577 levels. Bitcoin has crossover below 20 and 50 periods EMA levels that demonstrate solid selling bias among investors on the daily timeframe. On Thursday, the investor’s focus will remain on the 56,750 area as below this, the bearish bias dominates. All the best!