EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 23, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remains under pressure below the 1.1400 mark during the European trading session. However, the reason for its bearish rally can be linked to the stronger US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD’s value against six major currencies, has climbed back to around 99.30 from its low of 98.00.
However, the strength of the Greenback can be attributed to several factors, including improved market sentiment towards the USD following US President Donald Trump’s statements and ongoing economic concerns in the Eurozone.
US Dollar Strengthens as Trump Expresses Optimism and Safeguards Fed’s Autonomy
On the US front, the US Dollar has regained traction as President Donald Trump expressed confidence in finalizing a trade deal with China. His remarks on trade negotiations, though not providing details about potential tariff reductions, helped to stabilize the market sentiment.
Furthermore, Trump's statement about not intending to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell despite previous criticisms provided a sense of reassurance.
This has alleviated some concerns over the US Dollar’s credibility, which had been under pressure due to the uncertainty surrounding tariff policies and the Fed’s monetary stance.
However, Trump also voiced his frustration with the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged, creating a tug-of-war between the executive and the central bank. Despite this, the overall sentiment remains positive for the USD, benefiting from its safe-haven status amid global uncertainties.
Euro Under Pressure Amid Weak Economic Data and ECB Rate Cut Speculations
On the flip side, the Euro has come under pressure as economic data from the Eurozone paints a grim picture. Preliminary April data from Hamburg Commercial Bank (HCOB) revealed a decline in business activity, with the Composite Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) falling to 50.1 from 50.9 in March.
Hence, the reading below 50.0 would indicate contraction, though the Eurozone economy has just avoided this threshold. Notably, the Service PMI dropped unexpectedly to 49.7, showing that the service sector is weakening more than anticipated.
The Manufacturing PMI, however, performed slightly better, coming in at 48.7, signaling slower-than-expected contraction.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on the Euro
As a result of the weaker economic performance and persistent inflation concerns, market participants are growing increasingly confident that the European Central Bank (ECB) may opt for another rate cut in its upcoming June policy meeting.
ECB President Christine Lagarde recently mentioned that inflation might return to 2% by the end of the year, which has led to more speculation about rate cuts. Although Lagarde didn't confirm this directly, the chances of further rate cuts are putting pressure on the Euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has shifted to a bearish bias after failing to hold above the 50-period SMA at 1.1431. The pair has broken below key support at 1.1403, which is now acting as short-term resistance.
This breakdown, paired with the rejection from the $1.1450 zone, suggests bearish continuation if price sustains below the 1.1403 pivot.
The RSI reading at 39.25 confirms momentum has turned bearish, with room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.
The recent bearish candlestick pattern (a strong red candle closing below the 50-SMA and horizontal support) provides additional confirmation of the trend shift.
The pair is now eyeing a retest of the rising trendline support near 1.1309. If that breaks, the next support lies at 1.1265. On the flip side, a close above 1.1451 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a possible rebound.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Break of 50-SMA & Support: 1.1403 now resistance after failed hold, trend bias turns bearish.
- Bearish Candles: Strong sell-off candle adds confirmation below structure and SMA.
- Momentum Favors Sellers: RSI near 39 with room for more downside.
EUR/USD has shifted to a bearish bias after failing to hold above the 50-period SMA at 1.1431. The pair has broken below key support at 1.1403, which is now acting as short-term resistance.
This breakdown, paired with the rejection from the $1.1450 zone, suggests bearish continuation if price sustains below the 1.1403 pivot.
The RSI reading at 39.25 confirms momentum has turned bearish, with room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.
The recent bearish candlestick pattern (a strong red candle closing below the 50-SMA and horizontal support) provides additional confirmation of the trend shift.
The pair is now eyeing a retest of the rising trendline support near 1.1309. If that breaks, the next support lies at 1.1265. On the flip side, a close above 1.1451 would invalidate the bearish setup and suggest a possible rebound.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.14034
Take Profit – 1.13099
Stop Loss – 1.14515
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$935/ -$481
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$93/ -$48
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The euro rose to its highest level in over three years on Monday, near $1.1575 against the US dollar as political uncertainty in Washington weighed on the greenback.
This is the latest in a trend reversal for the euro, driven by a broad decline in the US Dollar Index which fell to a three year low near 98.00.
Much of the dollar’s weakness is due to the uncertainty around Federal Reserve leadership. President Donald Trump’s public dissatisfaction with Fed Chair Jerome Powell – including direct suggestions of termination – has raised concerns about the Fed’s independence and the entire US monetary policy framework.
On Friday, Trump criticized Powell for not cutting interest rates despite easing inflationary pressures. “The Fed really owes it to the American people to get interest rates down… If I want him out of there, he’ll be out real fast,” Trump said.
The administration’s economic team, led by adviser Kevin Hassett, has confirmed they are looking into legal ways to remove Powell.
Policy Uncertainty Drives Dollar Down
The market has reacted quickly. Investors are now factoring in the risk of political interference in central banking decisions – a dynamic that undermines one of the key pillars of the dollar’s safe-haven status.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned over the weekend that challenging the Fed’s independence could have long term economic consequences.
In an interview he said: “We should not put ourselves in a situation where monetary independence is in question.” Nations with politically neutral central banks tend to see stronger, more stable economic outcomes.
With eurozone inflation slowing and the ECB being cautious, the big move in EUR/USD is less about the eurozone and more about the decline in US institutions. Traders will now focus on ECB comments and PMI releases this week.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD surged above key resistance near 1.1470, but the pair is now facing selling pressure just below 1.1533 — the recent high.
Price has rejected the upper trendline of the rising channel and is forming a potential bearish setup, especially if it closes below 1.1532. A retracement toward 1.1478 could be underway, aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci support.
The RSI currently stands at 76.04, firmly in overbought territory. This suggests a short-term pullback is likely as bullish momentum cools off.
Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA at 1.1369 continues to trend upward, indicating the medium-term structure remains supportive of dips being bought — though some profit-taking is expected in the near term.
If the pair breaks below 1.1532, bearish confirmation could open the door to a correction toward 1.1478, with deeper support at 1.1459. A move above 1.1559 would invalidate the bearish view and resume the upward breakout toward 1.1598.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Rejection at Resistance: Price stalls at 1.1532, showing signs of a possible correction.
- Overbought RSI: Reading of 76 indicates stretched buying, favoring short-term pullback.
- Fibonacci Support: 1.1478 (38.2% level) is the first target on a downside move.
EUR/USD surged above key resistance near 1.1470, but the pair is now facing selling pressure just below 1.1533 — the recent high.
Price has rejected the upper trendline of the rising channel and is forming a potential bearish setup, especially if it closes below 1.1532. A retracement toward 1.1478 could be underway, aligned with the 0.382 Fibonacci support.
The RSI currently stands at 76.04, firmly in overbought territory. This suggests a short-term pullback is likely as bullish momentum cools off.
Meanwhile, the 50-period SMA at 1.1369 continues to trend upward, indicating the medium-term structure remains supportive of dips being bought — though some profit-taking is expected in the near term.
If the pair breaks below 1.1532, bearish confirmation could open the door to a correction toward 1.1478, with deeper support at 1.1459. A move above 1.1559 would invalidate the bearish view and resume the upward breakout toward 1.1598.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.15325
Take Profit – 1.14786
Stop Loss – 1.15598
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$539/ -$273
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$53/ -$27
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 18, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair attracted some buying interest near 1.1380 level.
However, the major driver of the pair's upward movement is the ongoing concerns over the economic impact of tariffs, which continue to weigh on the US Dollar (USD) against the Euro (EUR).
Moreover, the gains could be short-lived as the European Central Bank's recent rate cut to 2.25% weighs on the Euro. This dovish move, coupled with ongoing trade tensions, limits the Euro’s potential for further strength.
EUR/USD Finds Support from ECB's Rate Cut and Dovish Outlook
The European Central Bank (ECB) made headlines with its decision to cut interest rates for the third time this year, bringing its main interest rate to 2.25%.
This move was prompted by slowing economic growth in the Eurozone, worsened by the impact of US tariffs on European goods.
ECB President Christine Lagarde acknowledged that tariffs, which have surged from an average of 3% to 13%, are weighing on the European economy's outlook.
Despite the dovish stance, the Euro has managed to hold its ground. The ECB's rate cut has led to concerns over the Euro’s long-term strength, with analysts speculating that further cuts could follow in June. However, the Euro’s resilience stems from ongoing trade tensions, which continue to pressure the US Dollar.
While the ECB remains focused on downside risks to growth, the Euro's positive movement, albeit limited, reflects cautious optimism in the face of broader economic challenges.
Fed's Hawkish Stance and USD Pressure
On the other side of the Atlantic, the US Dollar has faced pressure despite Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s recent hawkish comments. Powell warned that the US economy could face stagflation—slowing growth combined with high inflation—which reduced the chances of a rate cut in June.
While this initially supported the USD, ongoing trade tensions and broader economic uncertainty have since weighed on the currency, allowing the Euro to gain some ground.
Despite this, money market traders are still pricing in nearly 86 basis points of Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, with the first cut expected in July, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
This long-term outlook for rate cuts has led to continued weakness in the USD, providing support for the EUR/USD pair in the medium term.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD continues to coil within a tightening symmetrical triangle, with price hovering around the 1.1370 level. This consolidation phase suggests a breakout is imminent, as the pair trades near converging trendlines while holding above the 50-period SMA at 1.1353. The structure remains neutral, but a dip to the 1.1344–1.1350 region may provide a buy-the-dip opportunity.
The 50-SMA has turned higher, offering support in line with the lower triangle boundary. The RSI is at 54.31, indicating balanced momentum with slight bullish bias. A bounce from the buy zone could trigger upside toward 1.1416, with further extension to 1.1427 if volume confirms.
Should price break below 1.1344, the setup weakens, and downside toward 1.1318 and potentially 1.1304 could follow. A confirmed breakout above triangle resistance, however, could validate a push toward the 1.1470 area in the coming sessions.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Triangle Pattern: Price consolidates near apex; breakout likely soon.
- Support Near 1.1344: Key level aligning with SMA and triangle base.
- Momentum Neutral-Bullish: RSI above 50, signaling mild buyer control.
EUR/USD continues to coil within a tightening symmetrical triangle, with price hovering around the 1.1370 level. This consolidation phase suggests a breakout is imminent, as the pair trades near converging trendlines while holding above the 50-period SMA at 1.1353. The structure remains neutral, but a dip to the 1.1344–1.1350 region may provide a buy-the-dip opportunity.
The 50-SMA has turned higher, offering support in line with the lower triangle boundary. The RSI is at 54.31, indicating balanced momentum with slight bullish bias. A bounce from the buy zone could trigger upside toward 1.1416, with further extension to 1.1427 if volume confirms.
Should price break below 1.1344, the setup weakens, and downside toward 1.1318 and potentially 1.1304 could follow. A confirmed breakout above triangle resistance, however, could validate a push toward the 1.1470 area in the coming sessions.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.13446
Take Profit – 1.14156
Stop Loss – 1.13183
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$710/ -$263
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$71/ -$26
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Breakout Confirmed: Price exits consolidation, moving above $1.1343 with bullish momentum.
- Support from Trendline and SMA: 50-period SMA at $1.1342 reinforces structure.
- Upside Target in View: Price could move toward $1.1427 if momentum holds.
EUR/USD has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern after consolidating below $1.1343 for several sessions. The breakout is supported by higher volume and firm bullish candles, pushing price above both the 50-period SMA and a descending trendline resistance. This shift in structure signals a bullish continuation toward the next resistance near $1.1427.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $1.1342, has turned upward and is offering early confirmation of trend reversal support. Price is trading decisively above this level, and short-term momentum is picking up.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 65.79, rising steadily but still below overbought territory. This suggests that the breakout is healthy, and further upside may be achievable before buyers begin to fade.
As long as the price remains above the $1.1343 breakout level, bullish pressure is likely to persist. The key upside target lies at $1.1427 — a level aligned with a prior rejection zone. On the downside, a fall below $1.1340 could shift short-term sentiment back to neutral, while a break below $1.1294 would invalidate the current setup.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.13433
Take Profit – 1.14270
Stop Loss – 1.12941
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$837/ -$492
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$83/ -$49
EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 16, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD Rises Toward 1.1400 as Dollar Weakens and ECB Rate Cut Looms
During European trading hours on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair surged to trade firmly near the 1.1393 mark, recovering from a slight correction seen on Tuesday.
However, the rally was fueled by renewed selling pressure on the US Dollar, pushing the DXY index down to around 99.40. This decline in the Greenback comes as traders grow increasingly doubtful about its long-term appeal amid unpredictable tariff policies and rising inflationary concerns in the US.
EUR/USD Gains Momentum on Weak US Dollar and Tariff Uncertainty
On the US front, the recent weakness in the US Dollar has been driven by escalating concerns over US trade policy, particularly President Donald Trump’s erratic tariff strategy. His recent decision to impose up to 145% tariffs on Chinese goods while pausing others for 90 days has confused markets.
Analysts fear this could push US importers to raise prices on substitutes, thereby fueling inflation and potentially slowing down economic growth. ING analysts predict the EUR/USD could rise toward 1.1500, citing diminishing demand for the USD as a reserve and safe-haven asset and favoring the Euro’s high liquidity.
Investors are now closely watching the US Retail Sales data for March, due later today, which is expected to show a 1.3% increase compared to February’s 0.2%.
Therefore, the stronger reading could briefly support the Dollar, but overall sentiment remains bearish due to structural doubts surrounding US trade and fiscal policy.
Euro Strengthens Ahead of ECB Decision Amid Falling Inflation
On the other side, the shared currency also found support from expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points to 2.25% during its Thursday meeting. This would mark the sixth consecutive rate cut by the ECB.
Market confidence in a rate cut has risen following a significant slowdown in Eurozone services inflation, which grew just 3.4% year-over-year in March — the slowest pace since July 2022.
Standard Chartered analysts expect the ECB may pause in June, allowing time for Germany’s potential fiscal stimulus and wider EU defense spending plans to become clearer. These developments could influence further monetary policy adjustments in the coming months.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD has broken out of a symmetrical triangle pattern after consolidating below $1.1343 for several sessions. The breakout is supported by higher volume and firm bullish candles, pushing price above both the 50-period SMA and a descending trendline resistance. This shift in structure signals a bullish continuation toward the next resistance near $1.1427.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), now at $1.1342, has turned upward and is offering early confirmation of trend reversal support. Price is trading decisively above this level, and short-term momentum is picking up.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 65.79, rising steadily but still below overbought territory. This suggests that the breakout is healthy, and further upside may be achievable before buyers begin to fade.
As long as the price remains above the $1.1343 breakout level, bullish pressure is likely to persist. The key upside target lies at $1.1427 — a level aligned with a prior rejection zone. On the downside, a fall below $1.1340 could shift short-term sentiment back to neutral, while a break below $1.1294 would invalidate the current setup.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Monday’s European trading session, the EUR/USD pair maintained it upward trend and surged to near 1.1425 level. However, the euro showed impressive strength as the US Dollar (USD) continued its decline amid increasing fears of stagflation in the United States, where inflation is rising, economic growth is slowing, and unemployment is cooling down.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Stagflation Concerns and US-China Trade Tensions
On the US front, the broad based US dollar has been under pressure as market participants anticipate stagflation in the US, particularly after the University of Michigan's preliminary Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 50.8 in April, its lowest since June 2022.
The decline reflects deepening concerns about a potential recession as US households worry about escalating trade tensions with China.
On Friday, China retaliated by increasing tariffs on US goods to 125%, compounding fears of a trade war that could hinder investment and economic growth.
Meanwhile, the University of Michigan's 12-month forward inflation expectations surged to 6.7%, up from 5% in March, signaling rising concerns over persistent inflation.
These negative economic signals are adding to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may struggle to bring inflation under control, contributing to the weakening of the USD.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations and Euro Strength Amid US-China Tariff Tensions
The euro has continued to strengthen as traders expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) this Thursday. If this happens, it would be the seventh consecutive 25 bps cut since June.
Many traders are confident that the ECB will ease its monetary policy further, as they believe the US-driven trade war will not cause inflation in the Eurozone.
Moreover, the ongoing trade war between the US and China is expected to shift some of China’s exports to the Eurozone. This benefits Eurozone importers, who will choose Chinese products over domestically made goods due to their cost advantage. This shift is seen as a way to offset the impact of US tariffs on global inflation, providing further support for the euro.
ECB officials, including Gediminas Šimkus, have suggested that cutting interest rates could help boost economic growth in the face of trade tensions. Šimkus also emphasized the need for a "less restrictive policy" to address challenges caused by the tariff dispute.
Furthermore, EU finance ministers have agreed to present a unified stance in trade talks with the US, which is expected to increase the euro’s appeal.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The euro continues its strong upward trajectory against the dollar, trading around $1.14158 after breaking above the psychological $1.13960 pivot. The bullish trend remains intact, supported by a steep ascending structure and consistent higher highs. Price action has extended well beyond the 50 EMA ($1.10505), underlining bullish dominance.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.14661, and a break above could expose $1.14895, the next logical technical target. Beyond that, $1.15533 becomes relevant based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
On the downside, $1.13330 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.13015 and $1.12505. The Relative Strength Index at 70.50 suggests momentum remains elevated, though near-term exhaustion is possible. Traders should monitor potential profit-taking around $1.14895.
The bullish setup remains favorable as long as EUR/USD holds above $1.13960. A confirmed break above resistance could fuel further upside, but overbought signals may prompt a brief pause or consolidation.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trades well above the 50 EMA, maintaining bullish strength
- RSI near 70 warns of potential short-term pullback
- Key breakout above $1.13960 opens the door to $1.14895 and $1.15533 targets
The euro continues its strong upward trajectory against the dollar, trading around $1.14158 after breaking above the psychological $1.13960 pivot. The bullish trend remains intact, supported by a steep ascending structure and consistent higher highs. Price action has extended well beyond the 50 EMA ($1.10505), underlining bullish dominance.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.14661, and a break above could expose $1.14895, the next logical technical target. Beyond that, $1.15533 becomes relevant based on the 2.618 Fibonacci extension.
On the downside, $1.13330 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.13015 and $1.12505. The Relative Strength Index at 70.50 suggests momentum remains elevated, though near-term exhaustion is possible. Traders should monitor potential profit-taking around $1.14895.
The bullish setup remains favorable as long as EUR/USD holds above $1.13960. A confirmed break above resistance could fuel further upside, but overbought signals may prompt a brief pause or consolidation.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.13960
Take Profit – 1.14895
Stop Loss – 1.13330
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$935/ -$630
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$93/ -$63