Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Sep 27, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Immediate resistance is at $1.1183; a break above could target $1.1198 and $1.1214.

- Support is firm at $1.1154, with the 50 EMA at $1.1162 providing additional backing.

- RSI at 51 signals neutral momentum; a move above 60 could indicate a bullish shift.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.11672, down 0.14% in today’s session, as traders remain cautious ahead of key macroeconomic data releases. The pair is hovering around the pivot point of $1.1164, a critical level that could dictate the direction of the next move.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1183, followed by $1.1198 and a more significant level at $1.1214. A breakout above these levels could trigger bullish momentum, driving the pair higher.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.1154, with further supports at $1.1140 and $1.1126. These levels will be crucial in maintaining the pair’s current uptrend.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1162 is providing immediate support, aligning closely with the pivot point. A sustained move above this EMA could signal bullish continuation, while a break below could lead to a deeper correction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51, indicating neutral momentum. This suggests the pair could go either way, depending on how it interacts with immediate support and resistance levels. If the RSI rises above 60, it could indicate a stronger bullish trend. However, a dip below 50 could shift the sentiment to bearish.

In conclusion, EUR/USD is at a critical juncture, with the potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.11637

Take Profit – 1.11938

Stop Loss – 1.11493

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$301/ -$144

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$30/ -$14

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 27, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Sep 27, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its downward trend, remaining under pressure around the 1.1158 level and hitting an intra-day low of 1.1125. This decline is attributed to the renewed strength of the US dollar, which gained momentum following positive US economic data.

Meanwhile, the euro's performance against other major currencies remains weak, influenced by the release of the flash French Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Spanish Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), both of which indicated that price pressures increased at a slower-than-expected pace in September.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Positive Economic Data, Pressuring EUR/USD Pair

Despite Fed's overall dovish outlook, the US dollar is gaining momentum as the recent positive economic data reflects the strength of the US economy. The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) reported a notable 3% growth in the US economy for the second quarter, indicating robust economic performance.

This growth, along with other favorable indicators, has increased confidence among investors and traders in the dollar's prospects.

In addition to the GDP growth, new orders for durable goods remained flat in August. However, a closer look reveals that orders excluding transportation increased by 0.5%, signaling resilience in certain sectors of the economy.

This suggests that businesses are still making investments despite broader economic challenges.

Moreover, initial claims for unemployment benefits dropped to 218,000, the lowest level since mid-May, highlighting a strengthening labor market.

A decrease in unemployment claims typically signals improved job security and economic stability, further supporting the dollar's upward trajectory.

Collectively, these indicators paint a positive picture of the US economy, reinforcing the dollar's position against other currencies and fostering optimism among market participants. Thus, the strengthening US dollar, driven by positive economic data, puts downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Losses Intensify Amid Weaker Eurozone Inflation Data

Apart from this, the losses in the EUR/USD pair were further bolstered by the recent economic data indicating weaker inflation in the Eurozone. The flash French Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed an annual increase of only 1.5%, falling short of the expected 1.9% and significantly lower than the previous reading of 2.2%. On a monthly basis, the CPI also experienced a sharper decline of 1.2%, compared to the anticipated decrease of 0.8%.

Similarly, Spain's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) revealed an annual rise of just 1.7%, below the forecast of 1.9% and down from 2.4% in August, while the monthly HICP dropped by 0.1%, diverging from expectations for it to remain stable.

These disappointing inflation figures have heightened expectations that the European Central Bank (ECB) may implement another interest rate cut at its upcoming October meeting, marking the third reduction in its current policy-easing cycle that commenced in June.

With inflation pressures decelerating in both France and Spain, investors are now closely monitoring the preliminary German and Eurozone HICP data set to be released on Monday and Tuesday. The results of these reports will likely influence future ECB policy decisions and the trajectory of the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.11672, down 0.14% in today’s session, as traders remain cautious ahead of key macroeconomic data releases. The pair is hovering around the pivot point of $1.1164, a critical level that could dictate the direction of the next move.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1183, followed by $1.1198 and a more significant level at $1.1214. A breakout above these levels could trigger bullish momentum, driving the pair higher.

On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.1154, with further supports at $1.1140 and $1.1126. These levels will be crucial in maintaining the pair’s current uptrend.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1162 is providing immediate support, aligning closely with the pivot point. A sustained move above this EMA could signal bullish continuation, while a break below could lead to a deeper correction.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 51, indicating neutral momentum. This suggests the pair could go either way, depending on how it interacts with immediate support and resistance levels.

If the RSI rises above 60, it could indicate a stronger bullish trend. However, a dip below 50 could shift the sentiment to bearish.

In conclusion, EUR/USD is at a critical juncture, with the potential for both bullish and bearish scenarios.

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Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Sep 25, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Immediate Resistance at $1.12153; breaking higher could target $1.12309.

- Immediate Support at $1.11618; the 50-day EMA at $1.11418 offers strong support.

- RSI at 65 indicates bullish momentum but could near overbought territory if it rises further.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.11872, up 0.07%, as it consolidates near recent highs. A break above the pivot point at $1.11983 could signal further bullish momentum, especially as traders eye immediate resistance at $1.12153. Additional resistance levels to watch include $1.12309 and $1.12485, which, if breached, could drive the pair higher in the short term.

On the downside, the immediate support level rests at $1.11618, followed by deeper supports at $1.11509 and $1.11350. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned at $1.11418, offers a strong support base, signaling a bullish outlook as long as the price remains above this average.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 65, indicating a bullish trend, but a move above 70 would signal overbought conditions, potentially leading to short-term profit-taking.

For short-term traders, a buy limit order around $1.11770 could provide an attractive entry point, targeting a take-profit level at $1.12153, with a conservative stop-loss set at $1.11626. This setup provides a balanced approach, capitalizing on upward momentum while safeguarding against downside risk.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.11770

Take Profit – 1.12153

Stop Loss – 1.11626

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$383/ -$144

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$38/ -$14

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 25, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Sep 25, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair climbed to approximately 1.1195, buoyed by a weakening US dollar amid growing speculation of a significant rate cut from the Federal Reserve in November. Market attention is focused on the upcoming releases of France’s Consumer Confidence and US New Home Sales data.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Adriana Kugler is scheduled to speak. However, expectations of a potential interest rate cut from the European Central Bank (ECB) or any indications of economic weakness in the Eurozone may limit the Euro's (EUR) upward momentum against the USD.

USD Weakness and Fed Speculation Boost EUR/USD Outlook

On the US front, the US dollar (USD) is weakening as speculation grows about a significant rate cut from the Federal Reserve (Fed) in November. The Fed recently reduced its benchmark Federal Funds Rate by half a percentage point, bringing it to a range of 4.75% to 5%.

This decision was made due to progress on inflation and the changing balance of risks. As a result, investors are increasingly betting that the Fed will cut rates further in the upcoming meeting.

According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the market is pricing in a nearly 56% chance of a second 50 basis points (bps) rate cut in November, while the likelihood of a smaller 25 bps cut is around 44%. This uncertainty is adding pressure on the USD, making it less attractive to investors.

In addition to this, France’s Consumer Confidence and US New Home Sales data will be released on Wednesday, and Fed Governor Adriana Kugler is also set to speak, potentially influencing market sentiment further.

Therefore, the weakening US dollar due to speculation of further Fed rate cuts supports the EUR/USD pair, pushing it higher. Increased investor confidence in the Eurozone, coupled with upcoming economic data, could strengthen the Euro against the USD in the short term.

Euro Gains Amid Upbeat Market Sentiment, but ECB Rate Cut Concerns Loom

On the EUR front, the upbeat market sentiment is currently boosting the Euro (EUR) against the US dollar (USD). However, concerns about a potential interest rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB) could limit the Euro's gains. ECB governing council member Klaas Knot stated that the bank plans to continue lowering interest rates at least through the first half of 2025, targeting a range between 2% and 3%. This indicates that further easing could be on the horizon.

Moreover, ECB policymaker Madis Muller mentioned that another interest rate cut next month cannot be ruled out. However, he emphasized that policymakers may not have enough data to make clear decisions regarding the struggling Eurozone economy.

This uncertainty could weigh on the Euro's performance. As a result, while the Euro benefits from the current risk appetite, any signs of weakness in the Eurozone or hints of additional ECB rate cuts may cap its upside against the USD.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.11872, up 0.07%, as it consolidates near recent highs. A break above the pivot point at $1.11983 could signal further bullish momentum, especially as traders eye immediate resistance at $1.12153. Additional resistance levels to watch include $1.12309 and $1.12485, which, if breached, could drive the pair higher in the short term.

On the downside, the immediate support level rests at $1.11618, followed by deeper supports at $1.11509 and $1.11350. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned at $1.11418, offers a strong support base, signaling a bullish outlook as long as the price remains above this average.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 65, indicating a bullish trend, but a move above 70 would signal overbought conditions, potentially leading to short-term profit-taking.

For short-term traders, a buy limit order around $1.11770 could provide an attractive entry point, targeting a take-profit level at $1.12153, with a conservative stop-loss set at $1.11626. This setup provides a balanced approach, capitalizing on upward momentum while safeguarding against downside risk.

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EUR/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Sep 23, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD is consolidating near $1.11625, with resistance at $1.1181 and pivot at $1.1199.

- RSI at 58 signals mild bullish momentum, with room for further gains.

- The 50-day EMA at $1.1103 provides critical support, maintaining the bullish bias.

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.11625, marking a flat session with minimal movement. The market is in a phase of consolidation, with a neutral bias, though technical indicators suggest the potential for further upside in the coming sessions.

The key to unlocking the next move lies around the pivot point at $1.1199. Should the pair break above this level, immediate resistance awaits at $1.1181, followed by stronger barriers at $1.1210 and $1.1241.

On the downside, the first line of support is at $1.1118, with deeper supports at $1.1094 and $1.1067.

The technical indicators support a cautious bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, indicating positive momentum but not yet overbought territory, leaving room for further gains.

Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.1103, providing a solid foundation for the pair. As long as the EUR/USD remains above this level, the overall trend favors the bulls.

In terms of trade strategy, a buy-above approach seems prudent, with an entry point at $1.11466. A reasonable profit target would be the pivot level of $1.11988, with a stop-loss set at $1.11174 to mitigate downside risk.

Given the relative calm in the market, the focus will be on whether the pair can gather enough momentum to break through resistance levels and sustain any rally.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.11466

Take Profit – 1.11988

Stop Loss – 1.11174

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$522/ -$292

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$52/ -$29

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 23, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Sep 23, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD extended its downward trend, dropping to the 1.1111 level and hitting an intra-day low of 1.1083. This decline was primarily driven by disappointing German economic data, which weighed heavily on the pair.

The downturn in Germany’s manufacturing sector worsened in September, while services sector activity also suffered, as highlighted by the preliminary HCOB business activity report.

Moreover, the European Central Bank’s cautious approach to monetary policy and uncertainty about the eurozone’s economic outlook further dampened investor confidence.

In the meantime, the renewed mild strength in the US dollar ahead of US Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) also played a major role in pushing the EUR/USD pair lower.

Economic Challenges in Germany and Their Impact on the EUR/USD Pair

On the EUR front, Germany's manufacturing sector is facing significant challenges, with a downturn worsening in September.

The HCOB Manufacturing PMI fell to 40.3 this month, down from 42.4 in August and below the expected 42.4. This marks a yearly low for the sector, indicating a slowdown in manufacturing activity.

In addition, the services sector is also struggling, as shown by a decline in the Services PMI from 51.2 in August to 50.6 in September, falling short of the forecasted 51.0.

The HCOB Preliminary German Composite Output Index came in at 47.2, lower than the expected 48.2 and down from 48.4 in August, reaching its weakest point in seven months.

These figures highlight the ongoing economic difficulties in Germany, raising concerns about the overall health of the eurozone economy.

Therefore, the worsening manufacturing and services data in Germany raises concerns about economic stability, likely putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair as investors anticipate further challenges for the eurozone economy.

Impact of ECB's Flexible Monetary Policy on EUR/USD Pair

Moreover, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde emphasized the need for flexible monetary policy in her recent speech. She stated that while the main goal of maintaining price stability remains the same, central banks must adapt to the rapidly changing global economy.

This flexibility is crucial for effectively addressing various challenges. By highlighting this, Lagarde acknowledges the current uncertainties in the market and the importance of adjusting policies to ensure economic stability and support growth in the eurozone.

Therefore, the Lagarde's focus on flexible monetary policy may lead to uncertainty about the ECB's future actions, likely putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair as traders reassess the euro's strength.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.11625, marking a flat session with minimal movement. The market is in a phase of consolidation, with a neutral bias, though technical indicators suggest the potential for further upside in the coming sessions.

The key to unlocking the next move lies around the pivot point at $1.1199. Should the pair break above this level, immediate resistance awaits at $1.1181, followed by stronger barriers at $1.1210 and $1.1241.

On the downside, the first line of support is at $1.1118, with deeper supports at $1.1094 and $1.1067.

The technical indicators support a cautious bullish outlook. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, indicating positive momentum but not yet overbought territory, leaving room for further gains.

Meanwhile, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.1103, providing a solid foundation for the pair. As long as the EUR/USD remains above this level, the overall trend favors the bulls.

In terms of trade strategy, a buy-above approach seems prudent, with an entry point at $1.11466. A reasonable profit target would be the pivot level of $1.11988, with a stop-loss set at $1.11174 to mitigate downside risk.

Given the relative calm in the market, the focus will be on whether the pair can gather enough momentum to break through resistance levels and sustain any rally.

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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 20, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Sep 20, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its upward momentum, gaining strength around the 1.1180 level.

The Euro (EUR) is rallying, fueled by growing speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep its Deposit Facility rate steady at 3.5% during its October meeting.

Meanwhile, the US dollar (USD) is facing a bearish trend, which is contributing to the rise of the euro. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback against six major currencies, remains just above its year-to-date low of 100.21.

This combination of factors is helping to bolster the EUR/USD pair as traders navigate the shifting economic landscape.

US Dollar Weakens Amid Fed Rate Cuts, Boosting EUR/USD Momentum

The US dollar has weakened following the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cut, as expectations rise that the central bank will continue easing its policies.

The Fed recently reduced rates by 50 basis points to stimulate the labor market while inflation approaches its 2% target. According to the latest dot plot, Fed officials expect the federal funds rate to reach around 4.4% by the end of the year.

However, traders anticipate further declines, with predictions suggesting rates could drop by up to 75 basis points, potentially bringing them down to a range of 4.00% to 4.25%, as indicated by the CME FedWatch tool.

This suggests a more cautious stance from the Fed as it navigates a challenging economic environment.

Therefore, the Fed's interest rate cut and expectations for further easing have weakened the US Dollar, making the Euro more attractive. This has contributed to the EUR/USD pair's upward momentum, pushing it higher as traders react to the shifting economic landscape.

EUR/USD Gaining Momentum as ECB Signals Steady Interest Rates

On the EUR front, the EUR/USD pair is gaining momentum, aiming to break through the key resistance level of 1.1200 during Friday’s European session.

The Euro is strengthening amid growing speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will keep its Deposit Facility rate unchanged at 3.5% in the upcoming October meeting.

Some ECB officials have expressed a preference for a gradual approach to policy easing, seeking more evidence of a slowdown in inflation.

Recent comments from policymakers, including Peter Kazimir, Isabel Schnabel, and Joachim Nagel, suggest that price pressures are still above the bank's target.

Specifically, Isabel Schnabel highlighted that persistent inflation in the services sector is keeping overall inflation elevated. Investors are now looking forward to ECB President Christine Lagarde’s speech at 15:00 GMT for more insights on interest rates.

In her recent remarks at the ECB's press conference on September 12, Lagarde emphasized that future interest rate decisions will hinge on inflation assessments and incoming economic data.

She stressed the need to understand underlying inflation dynamics and the effectiveness of monetary policy before committing to a specific rate path.

As a result, the EUR/USD pair is likely to rise as the Euro gains strength from speculation of unchanged interest rates from the ECB. Positive sentiment from ECB officials and anticipation of Lagarde's speech could further support the pair's upward momentum.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.11650, up by 0.04%, maintaining a slightly bullish tone as it holds above the key pivot point at $1.1146. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1181, with additional resistance targets at $1.1210 and $1.1241.

A break above these levels could indicate further upside potential for the euro, especially if market sentiment towards the U.S. dollar remains weak.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.1118, followed by $1.1094 and $1.1067. These levels could serve as key turning points if bearish pressure intensifies.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1131 is providing near-term support, reinforcing the bullish bias as long as prices stay above this level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 58, suggesting that the market still has room to move higher before hitting overbought territory.

With the RSI not yet signaling overextension, there is potential for the pair to continue its upward momentum. However, traders should monitor any break below $1.1118, which could signal a deeper pullback or trend reversal.

In conclusion, the EUR/USD outlook remains bullish as long as the pair holds above $1.1146. A break above $1.1181 would confirm continued bullish momentum, while a fall below $1.1118 could lead to a bearish correction.

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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Sep 20, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- EUR/USD bullish above $1.1146, with resistance targets at $1.1181 and $1.1210.

- 50-day EMA at $1.1131 supports the upward trend, reinforcing bullish sentiment.

- RSI at 58 suggests there is room for further gains before overbought conditions emerge.

The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.11650, up by 0.04%, maintaining a slightly bullish tone as it holds above the key pivot point at $1.1146. Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1181, with additional resistance targets at $1.1210 and $1.1241.

A break above these levels could indicate further upside potential for the euro, especially if market sentiment towards the U.S. dollar remains weak.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $1.1118, followed by $1.1094 and $1.1067. These levels could serve as key turning points if bearish pressure intensifies.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1131 is providing near-term support, reinforcing the bullish bias as long as prices stay above this level.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently stands at 58, suggesting that the market still has room to move higher before hitting overbought territory. With the RSI not yet signaling overextension, there is potential for the pair to continue its upward momentum.

However, traders should monitor any break below $1.1118, which could signal a deeper pullback or trend reversal.

In conclusion, the EUR/USD outlook remains bullish as long as the pair holds above $1.1146. A break above $1.1181 would confirm continued bullish momentum, while a fall below $1.1118 could lead to a bearish correction.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.11466

Take Profit – 1.11988

Stop Loss – 1.11174

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$522/ -$292

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$52/ -$29

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 18, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Sep 18, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During European trading, the EUR/USD pair remains steady above 1.1100, supported by ongoing weakness in the US dollar as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve's policy decision at 18:00 GMT.

Market sentiment is leaning towards a 50-basis-point rate cut by the Fed, which has contributed to the dollar's decline and boosted the EUR/USD pair.

However, the Euro faces some pressure due to uncertainty surrounding the European Central Bank's (ECB) future rate decisions and the overall economic outlook for the Eurozone.

Moving ahead, Eurostat will release the final Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for August at 09:00 GMT. Economists expect the data to align with preliminary estimates, forecasting annual headline inflation at 2.2% and core inflation at 2.8%.

US Retail Sales Data Creates Brief Rebound for Dollar, But Fed Rate Cut Expectations Weigh on EUR/USD

On the US front, recent economic data showed a small increase in Retail Sales for August, rising by 0.1% instead of the expected decline of 0.2%. However, sales excluding autos also grew by just 0.1%, missing forecasts.

This data led to a brief rebound in the US Dollar as traders adjusted their positions, moving it away from its lowest level since July 2023. Despite this, the US Dollar's gains were limited because traders still expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates more aggressively.

Markets are currently pricing in a 65% chance that the Fed will lower rates by 50 basis points at the end of its meeting today. This expectation is putting pressure on the US Dollar and supporting the EUR/USD pair.

Even though there was a slight bounce in the yield of the 10-year US government bond after the retail sales data, it did not significantly affect the market, as expectations for a more dovish Fed continue to dominate.

Uncertainty Over ECB Rate Decisions Drives Volatility in EUR/USD Pair

On the other side, the gain in the EUR/USD pair could be limited due to uncertainty about the European Central Bank's (ECB) future interest rate decisions and the Eurozone's economic outlook.

ECB officials are divided on whether to cut rates further. François Villeroy de Galhau, a member of the ECB Governing Council and President of the Bank of France, suggested that more rate cuts might be necessary to prevent inflation from falling too low. He indicated that the ECB is likely to continue cutting rates.

In contrast, Peter Kazimir, another ECB Governing Council member, argued that it might be better to wait until December for a clearer economic picture before making further rate cuts.

He expressed concerns about cutting borrowing costs too quickly if inflation has not been fully addressed.

Financial markets expect the ECB to make one more rate cut later this year, either in October or December, as they await more clarity on the economic situation.

Therefore, the uncertainty over ECB rate decisions is likely to keep the EUR/USD pair volatile. Divergent views among ECB officials create market hesitation, which may lead to fluctuating Euro strength against the US Dollar until a clearer policy direction emerges.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is trading at $1.11258, up 0.11%, showing mild bullish momentum as it approaches key resistance levels. The pair is hovering above its pivot point at $1.1113, indicating that buying interest remains strong for the time being.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1135, followed by additional hurdles at $1.1155 and $1.1185. On the downside, the first support sits at $1.1094, with further levels at $1.1072 and $1.1049.

The RSI has reached 60, signaling that momentum is leaning toward the bullish side but is not yet overbought. The 50-day EMA is positioned at $1.1074, providing a solid foundation of support that reinforces a short-term bullish bias.

As long as the pair remains above this moving average, the outlook remains favorable for further gains.

Traders are likely focusing on upcoming economic data and central bank comments, as any shifts in sentiment could introduce volatility.

A break above $1.1135 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend, with a potential move toward the next resistance level at $1.1155. Entry points for buyers are recommended above $1.11134, with a take profit target at $1.11504 and a stop-loss placed at $1.10948.

However, should the pair fall below the $1.1094 support level, bearish sentiment could take hold, pushing the price further toward the next key support at $1.1072.

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Daily Trade Ideas

EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Sep 18, 2024
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Immediate resistance at $1.1135, with support at $1.1094, marks critical levels.

- RSI at 60 suggests moderate bullish momentum but not overbought.

- 50-day EMA at $1.1074 provides strong near-term support, reinforcing the uptrend.

EUR/USD is trading at $1.11258, up 0.11%, showing mild bullish momentum as it approaches key resistance levels. The pair is hovering above its pivot point at $1.1113, indicating that buying interest remains strong for the time being.

Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1135, followed by additional hurdles at $1.1155 and $1.1185. On the downside, the first support sits at $1.1094, with further levels at $1.1072 and $1.1049.

The RSI has reached 60, signaling that momentum is leaning toward the bullish side but is not yet overbought. The 50-day EMA is positioned at $1.1074, providing a solid foundation of support that reinforces a short-term bullish bias.

As long as the pair remains above this moving average, the outlook remains favorable for further gains.

Traders are likely focusing on upcoming economic data and central bank comments, as any shifts in sentiment could introduce volatility. A break above $1.1135 would confirm the continuation of the uptrend, with a potential move toward the next resistance level at $1.1155. Entry points for buyers are recommended above $1.11134, with a take profit target at $1.11504 and a stop-loss placed at $1.10948.

However, should the pair fall below the $1.1094 support level, bearish sentiment could take hold, pushing the price further toward the next key support at $1.1072.

EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.11134

Take Profit – 1.11504

Stop Loss – 1.10948

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$370/ -$186

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$37/ -$18

EUR/USD