EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD consolidates above the key support level of $1.10690.
- RSI at 55.77 suggests room for upside momentum.
- Break above $1.11228 could signal further bullish action, targeting $1.11892.
EUR/USD is showing signs of consolidation after breaking out of a descending channel. The pair is currently hovering near the 1.10690 support level, which coincides with the pivot point for today. If the price manages to stay above this level, it could trigger further upward momentum towards the immediate resistance at 1.11005. Above this, the next resistance stands at 1.11228, followed by a potential move to 1.11892 if bullish momentum continues.
The RSI at 55.77 indicates that the market still has room to the upside, with momentum building slowly. However, traders should remain cautious if the price slips below the support level of 1.10690, as this could expose the pair to a move down towards 1.10395, and possibly further to 1.09995. A break above the 50-day EMA at 1.10991 will serve as an additional bullish confirmation.
Overall, the EUR/USD pair is showing potential for gains as long as it remains above the key support of 1.10690. A bullish breakout above the 50-EMA could drive further upward movement, while a failure to hold support might bring in selling pressure.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.10690
Take Profit – 1.11228
Stop Loss – 1.10395
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$538/ -$295
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$53/ -$29
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 05, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward momentum, trading around 1.1096 and reaching an intra-day high of 1.1109. This movement comes as investors closely monitor US economic data, which has influenced the pair's performance.
Despite a surprising 0.1% decline in annual Eurozone Retail Sales for July—contrary to expectations for growth—the Euro (EUR) remains robust against major currencies. Notably, monthly Retail Sales did rise by 0.1%, meeting forecasts.
Moreover, EUR/USD gains were bolstered by weaker-than-expected US JOLTS Job Openings data for July. This disappointing data has increased market expectations for a more aggressive policy-easing cycle by the Federal Reserve (Fed). As a result, the US dollar has weakened, further supporting the recent strength of the EUR/USD pair.
Euro Remains Strong Despite Weaker Eurozone Data and Growth Concerns
Despite a 0.1% decline in annual Eurozone Retail Sales for July, the Euro (EUR) remains strong. Retail Sales data, which reflects consumer spending, was expected to grow but instead fell slightly. However, the monthly Retail Sales increased by 0.1%, as predicted.
This mixed data has led to speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) may lower interest rates soon. The ECB began easing in June but paused in July, and there’s anticipation of further cuts due to concerns about slow economic growth and easing inflation.
Additionally, worries about Eurozone economic performance have increased. The final HCOB PMI report showed slower growth in economic activity, with a reading of 51.0, down from 51.2. This slowdown is due to weaker growth in services and ongoing contraction in manufacturing. ECB member François Villeroy de Galhau suggested that these economic issues might prompt the ECB to cut interest rates in September.
Therefore, the news of weaker Eurozone Retail Sales and slower growth intensifies speculation that the ECB will cut interest rates. This speculation, combined with easing inflationary pressures, supports the Euro (EUR), contributing to the EUR/USD pair’s strength.
EUR/USD Recovery Driven by Weaker US Job Data and Upcoming Economic Reports
On the US front, the EUR/USD pair has extended its recovery. This rebound followed weaker-than-expected US JOLTS Job Openings data for July, which has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might start a significant policy-easing cycle soon.
The disappointing JOLTS data, showing job vacancies at 7.67 million compared to the revised 7.91 million in June and below the 8.1 million estimate, raised concerns about the labor market and led to a drop in the US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined further to around 101.20 as a result.
Looking ahead, the USD’s movement will be influenced by the upcoming ADP Employment Change and ISM Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for August. The ADP data, due at 12:15 GMT, is expected to show a rise in private sector payrolls to 145K from 122K in July. The ISM Services PMI, set for release at 14:00 GMT, is projected to decline slightly to 51.1 from 51.4.
Stronger data in these reports could reduce expectations for aggressive Fed rate cuts, while weaker results could reinforce them, impacting the USD’s strength and, consequently, the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is showing signs of consolidation after breaking out of a descending channel. The pair is currently hovering near the 1.10690 support level, which coincides with the pivot point for today.
If the price manages to stay above this level, it could trigger further upward momentum towards the immediate resistance at 1.11005. Above this, the next resistance stands at 1.11228, followed by a potential move to 1.11892 if bullish momentum continues.
The RSI at 55.77 indicates that the market still has room to the upside, with momentum building slowly. However, traders should remain cautious if the price slips below the support level of 1.10690, as this could expose the pair to a move down towards 1.10395, and possibly further to 1.09995. A break above the 50-day EMA at 1.10991 will serve as an additional bullish confirmation.
Overall, the EUR/USD pair is showing potential for gains as long as it remains above the key support of 1.10690. A bullish breakout above the 50-EMA could drive further upward movement, while a failure to hold support might bring in selling pressure.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 04, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD is consolidating within a narrow range close to a fresh two-week low of 1.1025. The major currency pair has turned sideways as the US Dollar (USD) adjusts following the release of the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August.
Meanwhile, the Euro’s near-term outlook remains negative as market participants anticipate that the European Central Bank’s (ECB) policy-easing cycle could be aggressive, given the steep decline in Eurozone inflationary pressures and weak economic growth.
USD Weakness and Upcoming Labor Data Could Boost EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar (USD) is adjusting after the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI data for August, which showed a reading of 47.2. This figure missed expectations of 47.5 but was an improvement from the eight-month low of 46.8. Despite this small uptick, a PMI below 50.0 still signals a contraction in manufacturing activity.
Consequently, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has dropped to around 101.60 after failing to regain a two-week high of 102.00. Investors are now looking ahead to Friday's US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for August, which will be crucial in determining the Federal Reserve’s next move on interest rates. There is a general expectation that the Fed might start reducing its key borrowing rates this month, but opinions vary on the size of the potential cut.
In addition to the NFP data, attention will also be on the US JOLTS Job Openings report for July and the ADP Employment Change data for August. The JOLTS report is anticipated to show about 8.1 million job vacancies, slightly down from the 8.184 million reported the previous month.
The Fed Chair Jerome Powell's recent comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium, highlighting concerns over weakening labor demand, have made these labor market reports even more significant for market participants.
Therefore, the weak ISM Manufacturing PMI and the upcoming US labor market data contribute to USD weakness, which could bolster the EUR/USD pair. If the Fed signals a rate cut, the EUR/USD might gain further, given the Eurozone's downbeat outlook.
ECB Rate Cut Expectations and Weak Eurozone Data Limit EUR Gains
On the EUR front, the shared currency shows a slight recovery as the US Dollar weakens. However, the Euro's near-term outlook remains negative. Market participants anticipate that the European Central Bank (ECB) might aggressively ease policy due to the sharp drop in Eurozone inflation and sluggish economic growth.
Bank of America (BofA) expects more ECB rate cuts through 2025 and 2026, forecasting a deposit rate of 2% by Q3 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. They note that Europe's recovery is fragile, affected by slow growth in China and political issues.
Furthermore, ECB officials express concerns about their policy stance being too restrictive. ECB Executive Board member Piero Cipollone warned about balancing inflation targets with economic growth. Investors are awaiting the Eurozone Retail Sales data for July, expected to show a slight 0.1% increase after a 0.3% contraction in June.
Despite a potential improvement, this may not alter market expectations of further ECB rate cuts. In the menatime, the Eurozone Producer Price Index (PPI) also showed slower deflation at 2.1%, better than the 2.5% estimate, but unlikely to change the ECB’s policy direction.
Therefore, the Euro's slight recovery against the US Dollar may be short-lived as expectations of aggressive ECB rate cuts and weak Eurozone economic data suggest continued EUR/USD pressure. The market anticipates further ECB easing, which could limit substantial gains for the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.10568, gaining 0.13% during today's session. The price is edging closer to the pivot point at $1.11005, a crucial level that could set the tone for the day's trading.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.11395, with the next key levels being $1.11892 and $1.10337. On the downside, immediate support can be found at $1.09995, with further supports at $1.09685.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $1.11083, slightly above the current price. This EMA acts as a strong barrier for bulls trying to push the price higher.
A break above this could see the pair testing the next resistance at $1.11395, while a rejection could drive EUR/USD back toward its key support areas.
Technical indicators suggest a bearish bias for now. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39, signaling that the market has room for further declines before reaching oversold conditions.
In the short term, selling pressure could dominate if the pair breaks below the immediate support at $1.10695. A fall below this level would likely accelerate the downward move toward $1.10208.
However, if EUR/USD manages to breach the $1.11005 pivot point and hold above it, we could see a shift in sentiment, potentially driving the pair toward $1.11395. Watch closely for a break or bounce around these key levels.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD nears a key pivot at $1.11005, with bears currently in control.
- RSI at 39 suggests potential for further downside before oversold conditions hit.
- A break below $1.10695 could drive the pair toward $1.10208, key support levels to watch.
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.10568, gaining 0.13% during today's session. The price is edging closer to the pivot point at $1.11005, a crucial level that could set the tone for the day's trading.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.11395, with the next key levels being $1.11892 and $1.10337. On the downside, immediate support can be found at $1.09995, with further supports at $1.09685.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) sits at $1.11083, slightly above the current price. This EMA acts as a strong barrier for bulls trying to push the price higher.
A break above this could see the pair testing the next resistance at $1.11395, while a rejection could drive EUR/USD back toward its key support areas.
Technical indicators suggest a bearish bias for now. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 39, signaling that the market has room for further declines before reaching oversold conditions.
In the short term, selling pressure could dominate if the pair breaks below the immediate support at $1.10695. A fall below this level would likely accelerate the downward move toward $1.10208.
However, if EUR/USD manages to breach the $1.11005 pivot point and hold above it, we could see a shift in sentiment, potentially driving the pair toward $1.11395. Watch closely for a break or bounce around these key levels.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.10692
Take Profit – 1.10208
Stop Loss – 1.10973
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$484/ -$281
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$48/ -$28
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Bias: EUR/USD is under pressure below the $1.1070 pivot, with the RSI at 42 indicating potential for further downside.
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance is seen at $1.1101, with additional targets at $1.1140 and $1.1189.
- Support Levels: Key support is found at $1.1034, followed by $1.1000 and $1.0969.
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.10620, experiencing a slight gain of 0.02% in early trading.
The currency pair is hovering near the pivotal level of $1.1070, which serves as a crucial point for determining the next directional move.
The 4-hour chart shows immediate resistance at $1.1101, followed by higher resistance levels at $1.1140 and $1.1189. A successful break above these levels could set the stage for further bullish momentum.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.1034, with additional support at $1.1000 and $1.0969.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 42, suggesting that the pair is leaning towards a bearish bias but is not yet in oversold territory.
This implies that there may be room for additional downside movement if the pair fails to hold above the key pivot point at $1.1070.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned at $1.1109, is acting as a resistance level, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Given the current technical setup, traders might consider selling positions below $1.10831, with a potential target near the $1.10338 level.
Conversely, a break above $1.1101 could invalidate this bearish outlook, potentially paving the way for a rally toward $1.1140 and beyond.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.10831
Take Profit – 1.10338
Stop Loss – 1.11194
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$493/ -$363
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$49/ -$36
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Sep 02, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair reversed its downward trend, turning bullish at around the 1.1071 level and reaching an intra-day high of 1.1078.
This shift is primarily due to renewed selling pressure on the US dollar, driven by increased market optimism and expectations of a dovish stance from the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
Additionally, comments from European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau, who hinted at the possibility of a rate cut in the upcoming September meeting, are influencing the EUR. This potential ECB rate cut could put additional downward pressure on the Euro (EUR).
US Dollar Faces Renewed Bearish Pressure Amid Dovish Fed Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has struggled to maintain its early bullish momentum, facing renewed bearish pressure amid growing market optimism and expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve (Fed).
The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 70% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed at its September meeting. However, recent economic data has led traders to reconsider the probability of a significant rate cut this month.
On the data front, July's Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index rose by 2.5% year-over-year, matching the previous month's figure but falling short of the 2.6% forecast.
The core PCE Index, which excludes food and energy, increased by 2.6% year-over-year in July, in line with the prior reading but slightly below the anticipated 2.7%.
These results suggest that while inflation remains stable, it may not be weak enough to justify a more substantial rate cut by the Fed.
Therefore, the renewed bearish pressure on the US dollar, coupled with stable yet insufficiently weak inflation data, supports a bullish outlook for the EUR/USD pair. Market optimism and dovish Fed expectations could drive further gains for the euro against the dollar.
Potential ECB Rate Cut Could Weaken Euro Against US Dollar
On the EUR front, European Central Bank (ECB) Governing Council member François Villeroy de Galhau recently hinted at a possible interest rate cut. According to Bloomberg, he believes there are "good reasons" for the ECB to lower its key interest rates in September.
Villeroy de Galhau emphasized that taking action at the upcoming meeting on September 12 would be both fair and prudent. He suggested that adjusting rates now could be beneficial for the Eurozone's economic stability.
This potential rate cut is being considered to support growth and address any economic challenges facing the region.
Therefore, the potential ECB interest rate cut could weaken the Euro against the US Dollar as lower rates might lead to reduced returns on Euro-denominated assets, making the EUR less attractive compared to the USD, leading to a decline in the EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.10620, experiencing a slight gain of 0.02% in early trading. The currency pair is hovering near the pivotal level of $1.1070, which serves as a crucial point for determining the next directional move.
The 4-hour chart shows immediate resistance at $1.1101, followed by higher resistance levels at $1.1140 and $1.1189. A successful break above these levels could set the stage for further bullish momentum.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.1034, with additional support at $1.1000 and $1.0969. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 42, suggesting that the pair is leaning towards a bearish bias but is not yet in oversold territory.
This implies that there may be room for additional downside movement if the pair fails to hold above the key pivot point at $1.1070.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned at $1.1109, is acting as a resistance level, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Given the current technical setup, traders might consider selling positions below $1.10831, with a potential target near the $1.10338 level.
Conversely, a break above $1.1101 could invalidate this bearish outlook, potentially paving the way for a rally toward $1.1140 and beyond.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD hovers near $1.10695 support, with RSI at 40 indicating slight bearish pressure.
- A break above $1.11005 pivot could target $1.11395 and $1.11892 resistance levels.
- Downside risks increase below $1.10695, with next support at $1.10337 and $1.09995.
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.10757, down 0.01% as it hovers just above a key support level at $1.10695. The market sentiment appears cautious, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40, signaling a slight bearish bias in the short term.
This reflects some downward pressure as the pair remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.11355, indicating that the bears might still have some control.
The immediate pivot point at $1.11005 serves as a critical juncture for traders. A decisive break above this level could signal a potential recovery, with immediate resistance at $1.11395 and further targets at $1.11892.
On the downside, if the price slips below $1.10695, the next support lies at $1.10337, with additional support levels at $1.09995 and $1.09685. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current range, and a breach could open the door to more significant declines.
Given the current technical setup, traders might consider entering a long position above $1.10697, with a take profit target near $1.11188. A stop loss placed around $1.10430 could help mitigate downside risk if the support fails to hold.
Overall, EUR/USD is trading within a tight range, with the possibility of a breakout depending on how the price interacts with the $1.11005 pivot point. As the market awaits further directional cues, the pair’s movement around these key levels will be pivotal in determining the next trend.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.10697
Take Profit – 1.11188
Stop Loss – 1.10430
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$491/ -$267
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$49/ -$26
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 30, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its downward trend and remained well-offered around the 1.1069 level.
This decline can be attributed to the bullish US dollar, which gained traction due to upwardly revised US Q2 GDP figures, reducing the chances of a more significant Federal Reserve rate cut.
Furthermore, the previously released soft German inflation data has bolstered expectations for another ECB interest rate cut in September.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone flash annual Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) declined as expected in August, which typically weakens the EUR by suggesting lower inflation pressures and potentially prompting the ECB to maintain or adopt a dovish stance.
Strong US Economic Data and Lower Rate Cut Expectations Boost USD, Weigh on EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is gaining strength due to strong economic data. The US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.0% annually in the second quarter, surpassing the initial estimate of 2.8%. Besides this, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending August 24 fell to 231K from 233K, coming in below the expected 232K.
This economic strength has reduced expectations for a significant Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the dollar against six major currencies, is trading just below a fresh weekly high of 101.58 as investors await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for July.
Currently, financial markets are confident that the Fed might start reducing interest rates in September, but there is uncertainty about the extent of the cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there's a 33% chance of a 50-basis points cut, while others expect a 25-basis points reduction.
The likelihood of a larger rate cut has decreased slightly since the BEA reported a higher-than-expected GDP growth rate of 3% for the second quarter.
Therefore, the strong US economic data and reduced rate cut expectations have strengthened the US dollar, leading to a decline in the EUR/USD pair. The higher GDP growth and lower jobless claims support a firmer dollar, weakening the euro.
Eurozone Inflation Data and Economic Weakness Pressure EUR/USD
Another factor that kept the EUR/USD pair lower is the Eurozone’s inflation data for August, which shows a decline. The flash annual Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) dropped to 2.2% from 2.6% in July, mainly due to lower energy prices.
Core HICP, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, rose by 2.8%, slower than the previous 2.9%. This weaker inflation data is likely to boost speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates again in September and potentially more later in the year.
Market expectations for an ECB rate cut increased after data showed that inflation in Germany, the Eurozone’s largest economy, fell to 2% for the first time in over three years. Additionally, Germany's economy contracted by 0.1% in the second quarter, suggesting a technical recession.
Other Eurozone countries, like France and Spain, also reported significant inflation declines. Analysts, such as Carsten Brzeski from ING, believe that the combination of fading inflation and weak growth makes a strong case for more rate cuts.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.10757, down 0.01% as it hovers just above a key support level at $1.10695. The market sentiment appears cautious, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 40, signaling a slight bearish bias in the short term.
This reflects some downward pressure as the pair remains below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.11355, indicating that the bears might still have some control.
The immediate pivot point at $1.11005 serves as a critical juncture for traders. A decisive break above this level could signal a potential recovery, with immediate resistance at $1.11395 and further targets at $1.11892.
On the downside, if the price slips below $1.10695, the next support lies at $1.10337, with additional support levels at $1.09995 and $1.09685. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current range, and a breach could open the door to more significant declines.
Given the current technical setup, traders might consider entering a long position above $1.10697, with a take profit target near $1.11188. A stop loss placed around $1.10430 could help mitigate downside risk if the support fails to hold.
Overall, EUR/USD is trading within a tight range, with the possibility of a breakout depending on how the price interacts with the $1.11005 pivot point. As the market awaits further directional cues, the pair’s movement around these key levels will be pivotal in determining the next trend.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 28, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to halt its downward trend, remaining under pressure around the 1.1126 level and hitting an intra-day low of 1.1122.
The decline can be attributed to the weaker Euro currency as investors anticipate that the European Central Bank (ECB) will cut interest rates again in September.
However, the ECB began reducing interest rates in June, with the expectation that inflation in the Eurozone will return to the bank's target of 2% by 2025.
Meanwhile, the ECB decided to keep its key borrowing rates unchanged in July, concerned that aggressive rate cuts could reignite inflationary pressures. Furthermore, a mild recovery in the US Dollar has further pressured the EUR/USD currency pair.
Euro Weakens on Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Uncertainty
On the EUR front, the Euro is underperforming against its major peers as investors expect the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates again in September.
The ECB began lowering rates in June, aiming for inflation in the Eurozone to hit 2% by 2025. Despite this, the ECB kept rates unchanged in July due to concerns that further cuts might reignite inflation.
Recent data, including the Eurozone flash HCOB PMI for August and Q2 Negotiated Wage Rates, show an uncertain economic outlook and easing wage pressures.
This has led to expectations that the ECB will reduce rates by 25 basis points in September, with possible additional cuts in the last quarter of the year.
Investors are waiting for the flash Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for Germany and the Eurozone, set to be released on Thursday and Friday, to get more clues on future rate cuts.
Therefore, the anticipated ECB rate cut and uncertain economic outlook contribute to a weaker Euro, likely exerting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Traders' focus on upcoming HICP data could further influence the pair's movement.
US Dollar Rebounds Amid Rate Cut Speculations and Upcoming Inflation Data
On the US front, the major currency pair drops as the US Dollar (USD) recovers from a recent year-to-date low.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) has risen to around 100.80 from a low of 100.50. This rebound may be short-lived, with market participants viewing it as a potential selling opportunity.
The outlook for the USD remains uncertain, largely due to expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in September.
Traders are divided on whether the Fed will implement a 25 basis points (bps) or a larger 50 bps rate cut. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is a 34.5% chance of a 50-bps cut, while the rest expect a 25-bps reduction.
Investors are awaiting the US core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation data for July, due on Friday. If inflation shows signs of declining, it could lead to a more aggressive rate cut by the Fed; otherwise, expectations for a large cut may fade.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The Euro (EUR/USD) is currently trading at $1.11369, down 0.17% on the day, as the pair struggles to maintain momentum above key support levels.
On the 4-hour chart, the immediate support lies at $1.1150, which aligns closely with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1117.
A decisive break below this support could accelerate the pair’s decline, potentially leading to a test of the next support levels at $1.1107 and $1.1072.
These levels have previously acted as strong support and are critical in determining the short-term direction of the EUR/USD.
On the upside, the pivot point at $1.1201 serves as the immediate resistance. The pair would need to clear this level to challenge the next resistance at $1.1232, followed by $1.1266.
These resistance levels represent significant barriers that the Euro must overcome to reverse the current bearish sentiment. The RSI indicator is currently at 46, suggesting that there is room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.
The overall technical outlook remains bearish, with the Euro struggling to gain traction above $1.1150.
The 50-day EMA will be a crucial level to watch, as a break below it could signal further losses. Conversely, a sustained move above the $1.1201 pivot point could provide the necessary momentum for a recovery.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate Support: The $1.1150 level is crucial, with the 50-day EMA at $1.1117 providing additional support.
- Pivot Point Resistance: $1.1201 serves as the immediate resistance, with further barriers at $1.1232 and $1.1266.
- Bearish Sentiment: The RSI at 46 suggests room for further downside, with a break below $1.1150 likely leading to additional losses.
The Euro (EUR/USD) is currently trading at $1.11369, down 0.17% on the day, as the pair struggles to maintain momentum above key support levels.
On the 4-hour chart, the immediate support lies at $1.1150, which aligns closely with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.1117.
A decisive break below this support could accelerate the pair’s decline, potentially leading to a test of the next support levels at $1.1107 and $1.1072.
These levels have previously acted as strong support and are critical in determining the short-term direction of the EUR/USD.
On the upside, the pivot point at $1.1201 serves as the immediate resistance. The pair would need to clear this level to challenge the next resistance at $1.1232, followed by $1.1266.
These resistance levels represent significant barriers that the Euro must overcome to reverse the current bearish sentiment.
The RSI indicator is currently at 46, suggesting that there is room for further downside before reaching oversold conditions.
The overall technical outlook remains bearish, with the Euro struggling to gain traction above $1.1150. The 50-day EMA will be a crucial level to watch, as a break below it could signal further losses.
Conversely, a sustained move above the $1.1201 pivot point could provide the necessary momentum for a recovery.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.11503
Take Profit – 1.10988
Stop Loss – 1.11798
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$515/ -$295
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$29