EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD is trading at $1.08846, with immediate support at $1.0861 and resistance at $1.0904.
- RSI at 44 indicates a neutral stance, allowing for potential moves in either direction.
- Recommended trade setup: Sell below $1.08953, take profit at $1.08603, stop loss at $1.0920.
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.08846, reflecting a modest gain of 0.09%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is situated at $1.0876, which acts as a crucial marker for market sentiment.
Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0904, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0924 and $1.0948. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0861, followed by stronger support at $1.0844 and $1.0825.
Technical indicators provide a nuanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 44, suggesting that the currency pair is in neutral territory. This indicates that there is no immediate overbought or oversold condition, leaving room for further price movements in either direction.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0888, slightly above the current price, hinting at a potential bearish trend if the price remains below this level.
Given the technical setup, a cautious approach is advised. A sell entry is recommended below the pivot point at $1.08953. The suggested take profit level is $1.08603, aligning with the immediate support level. To mitigate risk, a stop loss should be placed at $1.0920, just above the next resistance level, to guard against unexpected upward movements.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08953
Take Profit – 1.08603
Stop Loss – 1.0920
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$350/ -$250
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$35/ -$25
EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 22, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward trend, trading robustly around 1.0891 and reaching an intra-day peak of 1.0903.
This rally was bolstered by a weakening US dollar, which lost momentum due to recent US political developments and heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut cycle potentially beginning in September.
Additionally, the European Central Bank's decision to keep interest rates unchanged and refrain from signaling any imminent rate cuts at its upcoming meeting further supported the euro, contributing to the gains in the EUR/USD pair.
Moving ahead, investors are keeping an eye on German Retail Sales and the US Chicago Fed National Activity Index, both due later today. Meanwhile, they are watching for signals about the Federal Reserve's future actions, which will impact dollar prices.
Political Shifts and Fed Rate Cut Expectations Weaken the US Dollar, Supporting EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar starts the new week on a bearish note due to recent political developments. US President Joe Biden’s surprising decision to step down from the 2024 Presidential election raises the probability of Donald Trump becoming the next president.
This political shift, combined with expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September, has made investors more willing to take risks.
As a result, the US dollar, usually seen as a safe-haven asset, loses strength and supports the EUR/USD pair. Additionally, rising bets on a Federal Reserve rate cut in September and the weak US labor market exert selling pressure on the dollar.
However, the CME FedWatch Tool shows less than a 5% probability of a move at the July meeting, but a nearly full rate cut is expected in September. New York Fed President John Williams indicated a rate cut could be warranted in the coming months, but not in July.
ECB’s Steady Rate Policy and Cautious Outlook Boost EUR/USD
On the other hand, the upticks in the EUR/USD pair are further bolstered by the ECB left interest rates unchanged last week and gave no hints about rate cuts at its next meeting.
ECB President Christine Lagarde indicated that although inflation in the Eurozone is getting better, high rates need to be maintained for now. The likelihood of a rate cut in September has decreased from 73% to 65%.
This cautious approach by the ECB is expected to support the euro against the US dollar. In short, the euro benefits from the ECB’s decision to hold rates steady and its careful, data-based strategy.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.08846, reflecting a modest gain of 0.09%. On the 4-hour chart, the pivot point is situated at $1.0876, which acts as a crucial marker for market sentiment.
Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0904, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0924 and $1.0948. On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.0861, followed by stronger support at $1.0844 and $1.0825.
Technical indicators provide a nuanced picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 44, suggesting that the currency pair is in neutral territory. This indicates that there is no immediate overbought or oversold condition, leaving room for further price movements in either direction.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0888, slightly above the current price, hinting at a potential bearish trend if the price remains below this level.
Given the technical setup, a cautious approach is advised. A sell entry is recommended below the pivot point at $1.08953.
The suggested take profit level is $1.08603, aligning with the immediate support level. To mitigate risk, a stop loss should be placed at $1.0920, just above the next resistance level, to guard against unexpected upward movements.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 19, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD pair continued its downward trend, settling around 1.0884 and hitting an intraday low of 1.0876.
This decline was driven by a strengthening US dollar, bolstered by growing speculation that the Republican Party might win the upcoming US Presidential elections.
Additionally, the EUR/USD pair's losses were exacerbated by comments from ECB official Villeroy, who suggested that two more rate cuts this year might be appropriate. This outlook weighed on the euro, further contributing to the pair's decline.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculation and Rising Unemployment, Potentially Impacting EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is gaining strength even though investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might start cutting interest rates in September, as they believe inflation is moving closer to the 2% target.
Policymakers, however, are seeking more conclusive data before making a decision. The speculation around Fed rate cuts increased following June’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which revealed a return to disinflation.
Both annual headline and core CPI slowed more than expected, with monthly headline inflation declining for the first time in over four years. Additionally, easing conditions in the US labor market have further bolstered expectations for rate cuts.
On the data front, the Unemployment Rate increased to 4.1% in June, the highest level since November 2021. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending July 12 reached 243,000, surpassing both the expected 230,000 and the previous week’s 223,000. This rise in claims suggests more people are seeking unemployment benefits than anticipated.
Therefore, the bullish US dollar amid rising unemployment and expectations of Fed rate cuts could weigh on the EUR/USD pair, potentially causing the euro to depreciate against the dollar.
ECB's Uncertain Rate Cut Outlook and Lower Growth Projections May Weaken Euro
On the EUR front, the ECB kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday, with President Christine Lagarde avoiding any firm commitment to future rate cuts.
However, ECB policymaker Francois Villeroy de Galhau indicated that markets expect two more rate cuts this year, with possible policy tightening starting in September and continuing in December.
The ECB’s Survey of Professional Forecasters revealed that price pressures are expected to remain around 2.4%, returning to 2.0% by 2025. The growth target for 2025 was revised down to 0.7% from the previous estimate of 0.5%.
Therefore, the ECB's uncertain stance on rate cuts and lower growth projections may weaken the euro, potentially leading to a decline in the EUR/USD pair as market expectations shift.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.08864, reflecting a modest decline of 0.07%. The 4-hour chart indicates critical levels that traders should monitor closely. The pivot point is set at $1.0920, serving as a key indicator for potential price movements.
Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0909, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0928 and $1.0948. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.0861, followed by $1.0844 and $1.0825.
Technical indicators suggest a cautious sentiment in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, indicating a slight bearish tilt but not yet in oversold territory. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0880, just below the current price, acting as a potential support level.
Given the technical setup, traders might consider placing a buy order above the 50-day EMA at $1.08805 to capitalize on potential upward momentum.
The suggested trade setup includes an entry price above $1.08805, a take profit target at $1.09199, and a stop loss at $1.08598. This strategy aims to leverage a rebound while maintaining a controlled risk profile.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trading at $1.08864, down 0.07%, with a neutral to slightly bearish outlook.
- RSI at 42, indicating a slight bearish sentiment.
- Immediate support at $1.0861; key resistance at $1.0909.
The EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.08864, reflecting a modest decline of 0.07%. The 4-hour chart indicates critical levels that traders should monitor closely. The pivot point is set at $1.0920, serving as a key indicator for potential price movements.
Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0909, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0928 and $1.0948. On the downside, immediate support is at $1.0861, followed by $1.0844 and $1.0825.
Technical indicators suggest a cautious sentiment in the market. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 42, indicating a slight bearish tilt but not yet in oversold territory. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0880, just below the current price, acting as a potential support level.
Given the technical setup, traders might consider placing a buy order above the 50-day EMA at $1.08805 to capitalize on potential upward momentum.
The suggested trade setup includes an entry price above $1.08805, a take profit target at $1.09199, and a stop loss at $1.08598. This strategy aims to leverage a rebound while maintaining a controlled risk profile.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08805
Take Profit – 1.09199
Stop Loss – 1.08598
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$394/ -$207
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$39/ -$20
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD is trading at $1.0904 with a bullish outlook above $1.0932.
- Immediate resistance levels are $1.0923, $1.0940, and $1.0964.
- Immediate support levels are $1.0861, $1.0838, and $1.0817.
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.0904, showing modest upward momentum. The 4-hour chart reveals critical price levels that could influence market direction. The pivot point is set at $1.0932, serving as a key level for potential trend shifts. Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0923, followed by $1.0940 and $1.0964.
These resistance levels indicate potential targets if the price breaks above the pivot point, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0861, with subsequent support levels at $1.0838 and $1.0817. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current trend and could act as buffers against any sharp declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, indicating that the market is in neutral territory but showing signs of upward momentum.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0858, which aligns with the immediate support level, providing additional strength to the current price trend. This EMA acts as a significant indicator of the underlying trend and helps identify potential reversal points.
In conclusion, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.0932. Traders are advised to buy above $1.08940, with an entry price at this level, aiming for a take profit at $1.09323 and setting a stop loss at $1.08722.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08940
Take Profit – 1.09323
Stop Loss – 1.08722
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$383/ -$218
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$38/ -$21
EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 17, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, remaining well-bid around the 1.0937 level and hitting an intraday high of 1.0945.
The upward movement can be attributed to the weakening US dollar, which lost its bullish traction despite better-than-expected Retail Sales data reported by the US Census Bureau for June on Tuesday.
The decline in the US dollar was largely driven by heightened expectations of Fed rate cuts in September.
On the other side, the ECB's stance on interest rates and weakening economic sentiment in Germany are likely to pressure the EUR/USD pair. Expectations of further rate cuts and economic concerns could lead to euro depreciation against the US dollar as investors seek safer assets.
Impact of Fed Rate Cut Expectations and US Retail Sales on EUR/USD
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been under pressure recently as market participants expect potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve starting in September. This sentiment has led US Treasury bond yields to hover around multi-month lows.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve officials, Chair Jerome Powell and San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, have suggested that inflation is nearing their target levels, bolstering expectations for forthcoming rate reductions. As a result, traders are factoring in the likelihood of multiple rate cuts before year-end.
In recent economic data, monthly Retail Sales held steady, meeting expectations, as increased sales in core goods offset sluggish demand for automobiles. Moreover, May's sales were upwardly revised to 0.3% from 0.1%.
These figures indicate a resilient consumer sector, supporting the overall economic outlook. However, despite these positive indicators, market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts commencing in September remain unchanged.
Therefore, the expectation of Fed rate cuts has weakened the US dollar, benefiting the EUR/USD pair, which has shown resilience amid steady US retail sales and revised upward figures.
ECB Policy and German Economic Sentiment Impact on EUR/USD
On the other side, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to maintain unchanged interest rates, with investors closely monitoring for hints regarding future rate adjustments.
In June, the ECB shifted away from its previously tight monetary policy stance due to easing inflation concerns stemming from pandemic-related stimulus measures.
Officials foresee inflation stabilizing near 2% by next year, though current pressures may persist into 2023. Market sentiment leans towards two additional rate cuts in 2024.
Meanwhile, Germany's economic sentiment, as gauged by the ZEW Survey, sharply declined to 41.8 in July, reflecting anxieties over weak domestic and international demand, affecting the Eurozone's largest economy.
Therefore, the expected ECB stance and economic sentiment in Germany could pressure the EUR/USD pair, weakening the euro against the US dollar as markets anticipate further rate cuts and economic uncertainties in the Eurozone.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.0904, showing modest upward momentum. The 4-hour chart reveals critical price levels that could influence market direction. The pivot point is set at $1.0932, serving as a key level for potential trend shifts.
Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0923, followed by $1.0940 and $1.0964. These resistance levels indicate potential targets if the price breaks above the pivot point, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0861, with subsequent support levels at $1.0838 and $1.0817. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current trend and could act as buffers against any sharp declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, indicating that the market is in neutral territory but showing signs of upward momentum.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0858, which aligns with the immediate support level, providing additional strength to the current price trend. This EMA acts as a significant indicator of the underlying trend and helps identify potential reversal points.
In conclusion, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.0932. Traders are advised to buy above $1.08940, with an entry price at this level, aiming for a take profit at $1.09323 and setting a stop loss at $1.08722.
EUR/USD is currently trading at $1.0904, showing modest upward momentum. The 4-hour chart reveals critical price levels that could influence market direction. The pivot point is set at $1.0932, serving as a key level for potential trend shifts. Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0923, followed by $1.0940 and $1.0964.
These resistance levels indicate potential targets if the price breaks above the pivot point, suggesting a continuation of the bullish trend.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0861, with subsequent support levels at $1.0838 and $1.0817. These levels are crucial for maintaining the current trend and could act as buffers against any sharp declines.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 61, indicating that the market is in neutral territory but showing signs of upward momentum.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0858, which aligns with the immediate support level, providing additional strength to the current price trend. This EMA acts as a significant indicator of the underlying trend and helps identify potential reversal points.
In conclusion, the outlook for EUR/USD remains bullish above the pivot point of $1.0932. Traders are advised to buy above $1.08940, with an entry price at this level, aiming for a take profit at $1.09323 and setting a stop loss at $1.08722.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trades at $1.08884, up 0.12%, with a cautiously bullish outlook above $1.0909.
- Immediate resistance at $1.0909; support levels to monitor are $1.0860 and $1.0844.
- RSI at 58 indicates a moderately bullish trend; 50-day EMA at $1.0852 provides support.
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.08884, marking a slight uptick of 0.12%. The 4-hour chart delineates crucial levels that traders should consider. The pivot point is established at $1.0909, a key indicator for potential directional changes.
Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0909, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0924 and $1.0940.
These levels are critical as they mark potential barriers to upward movement. On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0860, followed by $1.0844 and $1.0824, indicating zones where prices might find stability or bounce back if downward pressure intensifies.
Technical indicators offer further insight into the current market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, suggesting a moderately bullish trend without overbought conditions.
This indicates room for potential upward movement. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0852, serving as a dynamic support level that could help prevent further declines if the price stays above this average.
Given these observations, the outlook for EUR/USD suggests a cautiously bullish sentiment above the pivot point of $1.0909. An entry price to buy above $1.08806 could be considered, aiming for a take profit at $1.09092, with a stop loss set at $1.08651 to effectively manage risk.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08806
Take Profit – 1.09092
Stop Loss – 1.08651
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$286/ -$155
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$28/ -$15
EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 15, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward momentum, hovering around the $1.0912 mark and reaching an intra-day high of 1.0920.
This upward movement was primarily driven by a weaker US dollar, which lost ground amid growing expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may start cutting interest rates starting from its September meeting.
Additionally, the Euro gained strength as investors showed increased interest ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) policy meeting, further supporting the EUR/USD pair's rise.
Impact on EUR/USD Pair Amidst Fed Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar slipped to around 104.00 as markets anticipate a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. This outlook stems from easing inflation pressures and a tepid labor market, as highlighted by slower-than-expected growth in June's Consumer Price Index.
Investors are closely watching Fed Chair Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at 16:30 GMT for clues on the timing of potential rate cuts.
These developments are likely to influence the EUR/USD pair, potentially weakening the dollar against the euro if the Fed signals a dovish monetary policy stance in response to economic conditions.
Impact of ECB Monetary Policy on EUR/USD Pair
On the EUR front, Investors are closely eyeing the upcoming ECB monetary policy meeting, where the central bank is anticipated to keep its key rates unchanged.
The focus lies on signals regarding potential future rate cuts, following the ECB's recent decision on June 6 to reduce interest rates for the first time since it began tightening policy back in July 2022.
This move underscores ongoing economic conditions and will shape market expectations for the euro's performance against major currencies like the US dollar. Traders are keenly assessing the ECB's stance on monetary policy adjustments amid prevailing global economic uncertainties.
Therefore, the ECB's expected unchanged rates and hints on future cuts could bolster the euro against the dollar, depending on how markets interpret the ECB's outlook compared to the Fed's dovish stance.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is currently trading at $1.08884, marking a slight uptick of 0.12%. The 4-hour chart delineates crucial levels that traders should consider. The pivot point is established at $1.0909, a key indicator for potential directional changes.
Immediate resistance is identified at $1.0909, with subsequent resistance levels at $1.0924 and $1.0940. These levels are critical as they mark potential barriers to upward movement.
On the downside, immediate support is found at $1.0860, followed by $1.0844 and $1.0824, indicating zones where prices might find stability or bounce back if downward pressure intensifies.
Technical indicators offer further insight into the current market sentiment. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, suggesting a moderately bullish trend without overbought conditions.
This indicates room for potential upward movement. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is positioned at $1.0852, serving as a dynamic support level that could help prevent further declines if the price stays above this average.
Given these observations, the outlook for EUR/USD suggests a cautiously bullish sentiment above the pivot point of $1.0909. An entry price to buy above $1.08806 could be considered, aiming for a take profit at $1.09092, with a stop loss set at $1.08651 to effectively manage risk.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Pivot Point: $1.0887 is the key level to watch. A break above could trigger further upside.
- 50 EMA: $1.0834 is a significant support level. A break below could signal a change in trend.
- RSI: Currently at 64, indicating a neutral market. A move above 70 or below 30 could signal a potential trend reversal.
The EUR/USD pair is holding steady, hovering just below the pivot point of $1.0887. Despite a marginal dip of 0.01%, the pair remains within striking distance of this key level, suggesting the potential for a breakout in either direction.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0834, providing a solid foundation of support should the pair experience a pullback.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 64, indicating that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral reading suggests that the pair could consolidate around current levels before making a decisive move.
Traders should closely monitor the price action around the pivot point, as a break above this level could signal further upside momentum, potentially targeting the $1.0900 resistance level.
However, a failure to breach the pivot point could see the pair retreat towards the immediate support at $1.0843.
A decisive break below this level could trigger further downside pressure, potentially pushing the pair towards the $1.0823 support level. Given the current consolidation, traders should exercise caution and wait for a clear breakout before initiating new positions.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08603
Take Profit – 1.08872
Stop Loss – 1.08430
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$269/ -$173
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$26/ -$17
EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 12, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and gained further ground around the 1.0890 level, reaching an intraday high of 1.0892. The rally can be attributed to a weaker US dollar, which lost ground following softer-than-expected US consumer inflation figures released previously.
This has raised expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September, putting pressure on the US dollar and contributing to gains in the EUR/USD pair.
Additionally, diminished expectations for ECB rate cuts, influenced by stable price pressures throughout the year and a cautious stance from policymakers, have also supported the EUR/USD pair.
Impact of US Inflation Data and Fed Rate Cut Expectations on the EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar weakened today due to softer-than-expected US consumer inflation figures released earlier. This has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in September.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, there is now certainty about a rate cut in September, with potential for another cut in either November or December.
The latest US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June, released Thursday, showed a resumption of disinflation after a brief pause in the first quarter of the year, prompting these expectations for Fed action.
On the data front, annual core inflation, which Fed officials closely monitor (excluding volatile food and energy prices), unexpectedly slowed to 3.3%, below economists' expectations of 3.4%.
Headline inflation also dipped to 3.0%, its lowest in a year, driven by lower energy costs and rental prices. Monthly headline inflation declined by 0.1% after holding steady in May.
These cooling inflationary pressures, alongside softer labor market conditions, have boosted Fed confidence in reaching their 2% inflation target. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly welcomed the slowdown, supporting the case for lower interest rates, though the timing of rate cuts remains debated.
Therefore, the weakening US dollar following softer inflation data and expected Fed rate cuts may strengthen the EUR/USD pair. Lower interest rate expectations in the US compared to stable or potentially higher rates in the Eurozone could support the euro against the dollar.
Impact on EUR/USD Pair Amid Reduced ECB Rate Cut Expectations
On the EUR front, the expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) to lower interest rates have cooled. This shift comes as ECB officials believe that inflation pressures will stay steady throughout the year.
They're cautious about slashing rates too quickly, fearing it could spark higher inflation once more. Instead of committing to a fixed plan for rate cuts, they're taking a wait-and-see approach. This means they're monitoring economic conditions closely before deciding on any aggressive moves to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates.
Therefore, the reduced expectations for ECB rate cuts typically strengthen the euro (EUR), potentially boosting the EUR/USD pair as investors perceive less economic stimulus and stable inflation in the Eurozone.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is holding steady, hovering just below the pivot point of $1.0887. Despite a marginal dip of 0.01%, the pair remains within striking distance of this key level, suggesting the potential for a breakout in either direction.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at $1.0834, providing a solid foundation of support should the pair experience a pullback.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 64, indicating that the pair is neither overbought nor oversold. This neutral reading suggests that the pair could consolidate around current levels before making a decisive move.
Traders should closely monitor the price action around the pivot point, as a break above this level could signal further upside momentum, potentially targeting the $1.0900 resistance level.
However, a failure to breach the pivot point could see the pair retreat towards the immediate support at $1.0843. A decisive break below this level could trigger further downside pressure, potentially pushing the pair towards the $1.0823 support level.
Given the current consolidation, traders should exercise caution and wait for a clear breakout before initiating new positions.
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