EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
As the world keeps a close eye on major currency movements, the EUR/USD pair, a critical metric in the global forex market, has been under the lens. On October 27, the pair was trading at 1.05652, seeing a marginal rise of 0.04% within the 24-hour window. This analysis is based on a 4-hour chart that provides investors with a snapshot of the currency duo's intraday fluctuations.
The pivot point for the day rests at 1.0578. On the upside, traders should be cautious of resistance levels positioned at 1.0610, 1.0645, and 1.0682. Conversely, should the pair take a downward turn, it will likely find support at 1.0524, 1.0491, and further down at 1.0454.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 46, illustrating a bearish sentiment. Though not drastically bearish, an RSI below 50 does hint at the prevailing bearish mood among traders. Furthermore, the price's proximity to the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) at 1.0577 suggests a tense equilibrium. The currency pair is treading just below this average, hinting at a short-term bearish trend.
While we haven't pinpointed any specific chart patterns for the day, these often hold the key to predicting future movements. For example, patterns like the Symmetrical Triangle or an upward channel can provide insights into potential bullish or bearish momentum.
As of now, the overall trend for the EUR/USD seems bearish, especially given its current stance below the crucial 1.05763 mark. However, any shift above this point could flip the sentiment. In the near future, we can anticipate the pair to potentially test the immediate resistance of 1.0610. With every tick and transaction, the forex market is continually evolving, making it imperative for traders to stay updated and adjust their strategies accordingly.
EUR/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Limit 1.05763
Take Profit – 1.05219
Stop Loss – 1.06111
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$544/ -$348
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$54/ -$348
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD, the world's most traded currency pair, has positioned itself at 1.06034 as of October 25. By analyzing its 4-hour chart, several pertinent insights emerge. The currency pair's pivotal point stands at 1.0574, a significant figure that seasoned traders are likely to keep their eyes on.
The European currency faces a series of resistance levels. The immediate barrier stands at 1.0637, with subsequent challenges potentially coming in at 1.0682 and 1.0745. Should the currency pair experience selling pressures, it could find support at 1.0530, followed by 1.0466 and the more formidable 1.0422.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for EUR/USD reads 49, indicating a neutral stance. It's teetering on the edge of a bullish sentiment but hasn't quite crossed over. In another technical observation, the pair is trading above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0589, suggesting a short-term bullish inclination. The chart pattern reveals an upward trendline offering robust support at 1.05891, buttressing the currency pair's current position.
Conclusion: The prevailing sentiment for EUR/USD can be termed as cautiously bullish, particularly if it sustains above the 1.0589 mark. As market participants evaluate the interplay of the outlined resistance and support levels, they'll likely focus on the immediate resistance of 1.0637 in their short-term projections.
EUR/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.05867
Take Profit – 1.06351
Stop Loss – 1.05603
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$484/ -$264
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$48/ -$26
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Oct 25, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the optimistic German IFO survey, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its bearish sentiment and continued trading below the 1.0570 level. However, this downward trend can be attributed to the strengthening US dollar, which has regained stability after a minor decline on Tuesday. Meanwhile, investors are contemplating whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will halt its interest rate hikes. This is occurring despite inflation in the Eurozone surpassing the ECB's target, and concerns about a potential economic slowdown or even stagnation. If the ECB indeed decides to stop raising interest rates due to these inflation and economic worries, it could lead to a weaker Euro (EUR) and a decline in the EUR/USD pair.
German IFO Business Climate Index Up in October, Indicates Economic Improvement
It's worth noting that the German IFO Business Climate Index for October came in at 86.9, indicating an improvement from September's 85.8 and surpassing the market's expected figure of 85.9. Additionally, the Current Economic Assessment Index increased to 89.2 in October, up from September's 88.7 and exceeding the estimated value of 88.5. The IFO Expectations Index, which reflects businesses' outlook for the next six months, rose to 84.7 in October, compared to 83.1 in September, exceeding the market's consensus of 83.3.
Therefore, despite this positive data, the EUR/USD currency pair continued to trade with a bearish bias and did not receive any support.
US Dollar Stabilizes and Gains Strength on Improved Bond Yields and Fed's Rate Expectations
Moreover, the broad-based US dollar is regaining stability following a slight decline on Tuesday. This is driving the USD Index (DXY) closer to the 106.50 level. However, the recovery in the dollar can be attributed to the improvement in US bond yields across both short and long-term categories. In terms of monetary policy, many market participants now anticipate that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain interest rates at their current levels during the November 1 meeting.
Hence, this belief was further reinforced by comments made by Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his recent speech at the Economic Club of New York. This news is exerting upward pressure on the USD, which could lead to a decline in the EUR/USD pair as the dollar strengthens against the euro.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD, the world's most traded currency pair, has positioned itself at 1.06034 as of October 25. By analyzing its 4-hour chart, several pertinent insights emerge. The currency pair's pivotal point stands at 1.0574, a significant figure that seasoned traders are likely to keep their eyes on.
The European currency faces a series of resistance levels. The immediate barrier stands at 1.0637, with subsequent challenges potentially coming in at 1.0682 and 1.0745. Should the currency pair experience selling pressures, it could find support at 1.0530, followed by 1.0466 and the more formidable 1.0422.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for EUR/USD reads 49, indicating a neutral stance. It's teetering on the edge of a bullish sentiment but hasn't quite crossed over. In another technical observation, the pair is trading above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0589, suggesting a short-term bullish inclination. The chart pattern reveals an upward trendline offering robust support at 1.05891, buttressing the currency pair's current position.
Conclusion: The prevailing sentiment for EUR/USD can be termed as cautiously bullish, particularly if it sustains above the 1.0589 mark. As market participants evaluate the interplay of the outlined resistance and support levels, they'll likely focus on the immediate resistance of 1.0637 in their short-term projections.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
In the sphere of foreign exchange, the EUR/USD remains one of the most scrutinized currency pairs, offering a window into the dynamics between two of the world's most significant economies. As of today, the pair is trading at 1.0575, marking a decrease of 0.14%. Observations from a 4-hour chart provide a comprehensive understanding of its potential trajectory.
The fulcrum of our analysis, the pivot point, is placed at 1.0561. Above this, the immediate resistance level is at 1.0601. If the currency pair gains traction, subsequent resistances are seen at 1.0638 and 1.0672. In contrast, if the bears exert pressure, an immediate floor is present at 1.0524, followed by support levels at 1.0491 and 1.0450.
Turning our attention to the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51. Typically, an RSI above 70 is indicative of overbought conditions, whereas a reading below 30 flags oversold territory. An RSI hovering around the midpoint of 50 suggests a relatively balanced market sentiment, with a slight bullish inclination given its position just above 50.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), another pivotal indicator, reports a value of 0.00009 with its signal line at 0.00074. While the MACD line currently lies below the signal line, it's crucial to monitor this relationship closely as a potential crossover could hint at shifting momentum.
Lastly, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the pair is currently at 1.0566, just below the current trading price. This close alignment indicates a potential tussle between buyers and sellers, with neither side holding a decisive edge at the moment.
EUR/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.05618
Take Profit – 1.06372
Stop Loss – 1.05172
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$534/ -$446
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$75/ -$44
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Oct 23, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD pair couldn't break its downward trend and continued to fall in the early European session on Monday. It slipped below the psychologically important 1.0600 level, mainly due to the strengthening US dollar. It's currently trading around 1.0586, marking a 0.07% loss for the day. However, this decline is linked to strong economic data from the United States and robust US Treasury yields, both of which are boosting the US Dollar (USD) and causing losses in the EUR/USD pair.
Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell and other Fed officials have indicated that interest rates will remain unchanged at their November meeting. Market participants are now awaiting data releases from both the Eurozone and the US in anticipation of the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting on Thursday.
Economic Insights and Geopolitical Concerns for the Euro
It's important to mention that economists surveyed by Reuters believe that the European Central Bank (ECB) has completed its interest rate hikes and isn't anticipated to implement any rate cuts until at least July 2024. This decision is driven by the ongoing efforts to combat high inflation.
Furthermore, the European Union is considering an extension of the cap on gas prices imposed back in February. However, this decision is mainly driven by concerns over the potential increase in gas prices during the upcoming winter, primarily due to the Middle East crisis and the disruption of a Baltic pipeline. Hence, these concerns will likely exert downward pressure on the Euro.
Moreover, ongoing tensions in the Middle East may impact the market. If these uncertainties grow, it could make investors less interested in the riskier currency like Euro.
Federal Reserve's Stance on Interest Rates
Moreover, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell, along with numerous Fed officials, has indicated that they are unlikely to make any changes to interest rates during their November meeting. Powell's intention is to temporarily halt the rate hikes, closely monitoring the economy's performance in the coming months. He did mention that they might consider tightening monetary policy more if they see strong economic growth or if the job market stops improving.
In addition, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic believes that it's unlikely the US central bank will lower rates before the middle of next year. Fed Philadelphia President Patrick Harker is sticking to his preference for keeping interest rates where they are. Fed Cleveland President Loretta Mester thinks they might have reached the peak of the rate hike cycle. Consequently, it appears that the Federal Reserve is currently in a holding pattern with regards to interest rates.
Therefore, the news of the Fed's cautious approach to interest rates has the potential to weaken the US dollar. This, in turn, could make the EUR/USD pair more appealing to investors, potentially resulting in an increase in its value.
In the sphere of foreign exchange, the EUR/USD remains one of the most scrutinized currency pairs, offering a window into the dynamics between two of the world's most significant economies. As of today, the pair is trading at 1.0575, marking a decrease of 0.14%. Observations from a 4-hour chart provide a comprehensive understanding of its potential trajectory.
The fulcrum of our analysis, the pivot point, is placed at 1.0561. Above this, the immediate resistance level is at 1.0601. If the currency pair gains traction, subsequent resistances are seen at 1.0638 and 1.0672. In contrast, if the bears exert pressure, an immediate floor is present at 1.0524, followed by support levels at 1.0491 and 1.0450.
Turning our attention to the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 51. Typically, an RSI above 70 is indicative of overbought conditions, whereas a reading below 30 flags oversold territory. An RSI hovering around the midpoint of 50 suggests a relatively balanced market sentiment, with a slight bullish inclination given its position just above 50.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), another pivotal indicator, reports a value of 0.00009 with its signal line at 0.00074. While the MACD line currently lies below the signal line, it's crucial to monitor this relationship closely as a potential crossover could hint at shifting momentum.
Lastly, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the pair is currently at 1.0566, just below the current trading price. This close alignment indicates a potential tussle between buyers and sellers, with neither side holding a decisive edge at the moment.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Oct 20, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its bearish trend, shedding further ground and trading around 1.0575. It retreated from its one-week high of approximately 1.0615, which it had reached the day before. This decline can be attributed to the increased demand for the US Dollar (USD), as buyers flocked to it, putting pressure on the Euro.
However, the downward trend in EUR/USD can be attributed to several key factors, primarily the possibility of an additional interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in 2023, coupled with the relatively high yields on U.S. bonds. These elements are bolstering the appeal of the US Dollar (USD). Furthermore, escalating geopolitical tensions are reinforcing the Greenback's status as a safer choice for investors, thereby exerting pressure on the Euro.
Powell's Inflation Stance and High Bond Yields Bolstering USD
It's worth noting that Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell stated on Thursday that inflation still remains too high. He also emphasized that monetary policy hasn't become excessively restrictive yet. This reaffirms our expectations of another interest rate hike by the end of this year. Consequently, the yield on the 10-year US government bond remains elevated, nearing a 16-year peak and approaching the significant 5% threshold. This robust yield continues to bolster the US Dollar (USD). Furthermore, there is cautious mood in the market, favoring the safe-haven US Dollar and putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Geopolitical Concerns and Safe-Haven USD Amid Israel-Hamas Conflict
Moreover, the ongoing concerns about the Israel-Hamas conflict potentially spreading across the broader Middle East are making the entire market nervous. Meanwhile, the recent reports of a Gaza hospital tragedy with hundreds of Palestinian casualties have intensified these worries.
On top of that, there is increasing concern about economic challenges caused by rapidly rising borrowing costs. All of this is making investors less willing to take risks, which is noticeable in the generally weaker mood in the stock markets. As a result, more people are shifting their investments towards traditional safe-haven assets, including the US Dollar.
ECB's Rate Hike Pause and Stagflation Concerns Impacting EUR/USD
Furthermore, financial markets are factoring in the possibility that the European Central Bank (ECB) may refrain from further interest rate hikes. This caution arises from concerns about the potential for a more pronounced economic downturn and the looming risk of stagflation, a scenario in which the economy remains stagnant while inflation remains high. The ECB hinted in September that their recent interest rate increase, marking the 10th hike in 14 months to combat inflation, could be the final one.
Moreover, ECB policymakers appeared cautiously optimistic last week, expressing the belief that inflation would gradually return to the 2% target without necessitating further rate hikes. This outlook suggests that the EUR/USD pair is more inclined to continue its downward trend.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD currency pair, an instrumental barometer in the foreign exchange market, starts the trading session at 1.05748, witnessing an almost imperceptible decline of -0.04%. Its intrinsic price dynamics are underscored by a pivot point established at $1.0561. Those bullish on the currency pair should monitor the immediate resistance level at $1.0601, followed by $1.0638 and capped at $1.0672. Conversely, potential downside pressures could encounter supports placed at $1.0524, further down at $1.0491, and culminating at the $1.0450 mark.
Delving into the realm of technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 54. Typically, any value above 50 leans towards a bullish sentiment, while a figure below this level hints at bearish undertones. The current reading suggests that traders are slightly leaning towards optimism in the near term. On the momentum front, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands slightly below its signal counterpart. This configuration intimates a potential bearish trend on the immediate horizon, urging caution. To further season our analysis, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) is poised exactly at $1.0561. With the EUR/USD trading marginally above this figure, it is emblematic of a tepid bullish inclination.
Chart patterns, often the cartographers of market trajectories, are currently inconclusive, pending the emergence of any distinct formations.
In summation, the EUR/USD shows a potential bullish disposition if it remains buoyed above the $1.05617 level. Conversely, breaking below could steer the currency pair into bearish territories. In the short run, our projection is to witness the EUR/USD flirt with the immediate resistance level of $1.0601. Any breach of this threshold might usher in further appreciations.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair, an instrumental barometer in the foreign exchange market, starts the trading session at 1.05748, witnessing an almost imperceptible decline of -0.04%. Its intrinsic price dynamics are underscored by a pivot point established at $1.0561. Those bullish on the currency pair should monitor the immediate resistance level at $1.0601, followed by $1.0638 and capped at $1.0672. Conversely, potential downside pressures could encounter supports placed at $1.0524, further down at $1.0491, and culminating at the $1.0450 mark.
Delving into the realm of technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is hovering at 54. Typically, any value above 50 leans towards a bullish sentiment, while a figure below this level hints at bearish undertones. The current reading suggests that traders are slightly leaning towards optimism in the near term. On the momentum front, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line stands slightly below its signal counterpart. This configuration intimates a potential bearish trend on the immediate horizon, urging caution. To further season our analysis, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) is poised exactly at $1.0561. With the EUR/USD trading marginally above this figure, it is emblematic of a tepid bullish inclination.
Chart patterns, often the cartographers of market trajectories, are currently inconclusive, pending the emergence of any distinct formations.
In summation, the EUR/USD shows a potential bullish disposition if it remains buoyed above the $1.05617 level. Conversely, breaking below could steer the currency pair into bearish territories. In the short run, our projection is to witness the EUR/USD flirt with the immediate resistance level of $1.0601. Any breach of this threshold might usher in further appreciations.
EUR/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.05617
Take Profit – 1.06199
Stop Loss – 1.05172
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$582/ -$445
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$58/ -$44
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD, often termed the "Fiber" in trading parlance, has been a critical barometer of the U.S. and Eurozone economic strengths. As of this analysis for October 18, the pair is trading at 1.05777, marking a modest ascent of 0.17% in the last 24 hours.
Our immediate pivot point is identified at 1.0596. In terms of resistance, traders should cast their eyes on 1.0632, followed by a more challenging ceiling at 1.0672, and possibly up to 1.0713. On the flip side, supports are solidly placed at 1.0535, dipping further to 1.0496, and then a more substantial floor near 1.0454.
In the technicals, the RSI stands at 56, leaning more towards a bullish sentiment as it's above the 50 threshold, yet not in the overbought territory. The MACD provides further bullish confirmation, with its line being above the signal, hinting at potential upward momentum. Additionally, the current price comfortably sits above the 50 EMA, located at 1.0559, further endorsing the bullish narrative in the short term.
In terms of chart patterns, while none is explicitly stated, traders should remain vigilant for any emerging patterns or structures that may offer additional insights into future price direction.
For now, the trend for EUR/USD appears bullish, especially as prices maintain above the 1.0559 mark
EUR/USD - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.05599
Take Profit – 1.06309
Stop Loss – 1.05020
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.25
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$710/ -$579
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$71/ -$57
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Oct 18, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair continued its lackluster performance on Wednesday, as it witnessed a decline to approximately 1.0550 against the US Dollar. However, this dip can be attributed to the selling pressure on the Euro, which resulted in marginal losses in its value when compared to the US Dollar. Concurrently, European stocks faced a challenging day, with many of them ending in the "red," signaling losses in their values.
However, this downward movement was partially influenced by the strength of the US Dollar, as the USD Index (DXY) maintained its bullish trend in the low 106.00s.
US Dollar Holds Steady Amid Global Uncertainty and Fed Expectations
It's noteworthy that the US Dollar, as gauged by the USD Index (DXY), is holding its ground in the low 106.00s. This stability comes amid uncertain global market conditions, reflecting a prevailing sense of caution due to escalating geopolitical risks. In the meantime, investors anticipate the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current stance of keeping interest rates unchanged for the remainder of the year.
Looking ahead to the upcoming economic data, investors will keep a close eye on the weekly Mortgage Applications, as well as Housing Starts and Building Permits. These are expected to be important topics of discussion within the housing sector.
Speculation About ECB Policy Pause and Impact on EUR/USD
Moreover, there is ongoing speculation surrounding whether the European Central Bank (ECB) might decide to refrain from making adjustments to its policies. This is occurring despite inflation surpassing the bank's target, and there is a growing concern about the potential for an economic downturn or the emergence of stagflation, which is a combination of stagnation and inflation, within the European region.
On the data front, the latest inflation rate for September in the broader Eurozone revealed that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 4.3% compared to the previous year. When we exclude the costs of food and energy, which is known as Core CPI, the rate surged even higher to 4.5% on a year-over-year basis. Investors are now speculating that the European Central Bank (ECB) might delay its plans to tighten monetary policy until the third quarter of 2024.
Therefore, the speculation of the ECB pausing policy adjustments, even in the face of elevated inflation and economic worries, may potentially undermine the Euro (EUR) and influence the EUR/USD pair, potentially shifting it in favor of the US Dollar (USD).
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD, often termed the "Fiber" in trading parlance, has been a critical barometer of the U.S. and Eurozone economic strengths. As of this analysis for October 18, the pair is trading at 1.05777, marking a modest ascent of 0.17% in the last 24 hours.
Our immediate pivot point is identified at 1.0596. In terms of resistance, traders should cast their eyes on 1.0632, followed by a more challenging ceiling at 1.0672, and possibly up to 1.0713. On the flip side, supports are solidly placed at 1.0535, dipping further to 1.0496, and then a more substantial floor near 1.0454.
In the technicals, the RSI stands at 56, leaning more towards a bullish sentiment as it's above the 50 threshold, yet not in the overbought territory. The MACD provides further bullish confirmation, with its line being above the signal, hinting at potential upward momentum. Additionally, the current price comfortably sits above the 50 EMA, located at 1.0559, further endorsing the bullish narrative in the short term.
In terms of chart patterns, while none is explicitly stated, traders should remain vigilant for any emerging patterns or structures that may offer additional insights into future price direction.
For now, the trend for EUR/USD appears bullish, especially as prices maintain above the 1.0559 mark
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – Oct 16, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The EUR/USD currency pair began the week positively, rebounding from a one-week low just below the psychological mark of 1.0500 after two consecutive days of losses. This upward trend is largely attributed to the lackluster performance of the US Dollar, which, in turn, is providing some support to the EUR/USD pair. In contrast to this, there is still the expectation of at least one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2023, which is good news for the dollar and could limit the euro's upward momentum.
Another factor that could cap further gains in the EUR/USD pair is the belief that the European Central Bank won't be raising interest rates in the near term. This may prevent bullish movements in the shared currency. So, while the EUR/USD pair has shown some positive momentum, it's crucial to exercise caution when making significant predictions.
Factors Influencing the US Dollar and EUR/USD Pair
The broad-based US dollar struggled to maintain its upward momentum on Monday. Despite gaining strength due to recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, it failed to capitalize on those gains. This lack of a clear upward trend offered some support to the EUR/USD pair. However, the reason for its mixed stance is the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. This expectation was reinforced by the latest US consumer inflation data released last Thursday, which exceeded the Fed's target and kept the possibility of at least one more Fed rate increase in 2023 alive.
Despite experiencing downward pressure, the US dollar is managing to mitigate its losses thanks to several factors. These include elevated US Treasury bond yields, dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting that interest rates may remain unchanged for a second consecutive month in November, and a positive outlook in the US equity futures market, which is weakening the dollar's safe-haven appeal. However, speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not raise rates anytime soon is limiting the gains for the EUR/USD pair.
European Central Bank's Stance and Christine Lagarde's Caution
On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) made it clear in September that their recent interest rate hike, the 10th in a 14-month-long battle against inflation, is likely the last one for now. Additionally, ECB policymakers expressed cautious optimism last week, indicating that they believe inflation might return to 2% without requiring further rate hikes.
Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde addressed the International Monetary Fund's meeting over the weekend. She noted that if the impact of monetary policy proves to be more potent than anticipated, or if the global economy further weakens and geopolitical risks escalate, it could potentially impede economic growth. This cautious statement is essential for those who are speculating on the EUR/USD increase.
EUR/USD - Technical Analysis
On October 16, the EUR/USD currency pair marked a value of 1.05248, illustrating a marginal ascent of 0.20%. Over a four-hour chart timeframe, critical data points emerge, illuminating potential future movements.
Starting with pivotal data points, the pair's current pivot point stands at 1.05495. Looking ahead, resistance levels manifest at 1.06018, 1.06912, and 1.07457. Conversely, support tiers for the asset are marked at 1.04558, followed closely by 1.04035 and extending to 1.0312.
Delving into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at 41, which, while not indicating overbought conditions, suggests the pair is leaning toward the bearish spectrum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showcases a value of -0.0009, with its signal counterpart at -0.0014. This alignment hints at the MACD line having recently ventured above the signal line, insinuating possible upcoming bullish momentum.
Furthermore, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) posts a value of 1.05601. Interestingly, the current price lies below this EMA value. Traditionally, when a price positions itself below the 50 EMA, it often indicates a short-term bearish trend. Therefore, traders should tread cautiously and monitor subsequent movements closely.