Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair continued to rise, reaching around 1.0750 in early European trading on Thursday. Despite positive US inflation data, traders are focusing on the European Central Bank (ECB) interest rate decision. Most expect the ECB to keep rates unchanged in September. However, recent market sentiment suggests a 65% chance of a rate hike, likely the last in a cycle that began in July 2022. Investors will listen closely to ECB President Lagarde's speech later in the day. If ECB officials sound more hawkish (favoring rate hikes), the Euro could gain strength against the US Dollar, benefiting the EUR/USD pair. Thereby, the news of a potential ECB rate hike has led to uncertainty in the EUR/USD pair. If the ECB hints at rate hikes, the Euro may strengthen against the US Dollar.

US Inflation in August Sparks Concerns and Rate Hike Speculation

According to data released on Wednesday, the United States experienced its highest monthly inflation increase in 14 months during August. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) surged by 0.6% compared to the previous month, surpassing expectations, and marked an annual increase of 3.7%. The core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, also rose by 0.3% on a monthly basis, with an annual increase of 4.3%. While market expectations lean toward the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintaining interest rates at the upcoming FOMC meeting, these figures signal the Fed should remain watchful for potential future spikes in inflation.

Hence, there is a 97% probability of no rate change in September, but a 49.2% chance of a rate hike in November, according to the CME Fedwatch Tool.

Upcoming Market Events: ECB Decision and US Data

Looking ahead, market watchers will pay close attention to the ECB's interest rate decision and ECB President Lagarde's press conference at 12:45 GMT. Besides this, Thursday will bring the release of US weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Producer Price Index (PPI), and monthly Retail Sales. These important events could spark significant fluctuations in the market, providing traders with potential opportunities when dealing with the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair displays indications of continued downward movement. Current observations note a negative correlation in the stochastic oscillator, bolstering the likelihood of an extended bearish trend for the day, with a primary target set at 1.0635.

Our analysis maintains a bearish outlook for subsequent sessions only if it manages to break below 1.07207 level. For today, we project a trading range with support at 1.0660 and resistance at 1.0810.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair displays indications of continued downward movement. Current observations note a negative correlation in the stochastic oscillator, bolstering the likelihood of an extended bearish trend for the day, with a primary target set at 1.0635.

Our analysis maintains a bearish outlook for subsequent sessions only if it manages to break below 1.07207 level. For today, we project a trading range with support at 1.0660 and resistance at 1.0810.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07224

Take Profit – 1.07666

Stop Loss – 1.06998

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.9

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$442/ -$226

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$44/ -$22

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous session on a notably positive note, probing the resistance of the evident bearish channel showcased on the analytical chart. Notably, it has sustained below this resistance, commencing today with a bearish inclination, suggesting a potential continuation of the prevailing downtrend. The subsequent primary objective is set at 1.0635.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) aligns with the aforementioned resistance, amplifying its robustness. Concurrently, the stochastic oscillator displays a clear wane in its positive momentum, reinforcing the prognosis for a decline in upcoming sessions.

Given these dynamics, the bearish trajectory is anticipated in both intraday and short-term scenarios, unless there's a breach beyond 1.0785 that remains sustained. Today's trading spectrum is projected to span from a support at 1.0660 to a resistance ceiling of 1.0810.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07226

Take Profit – 1.07975

Stop Loss – 1.06783

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$749/ -$443

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$74/ -$44

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the European Central Bank (ECB) expects inflation in the Eurozone to remain over 3% next year, supporting another rate hike on Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward rally and dropped around 1.0735, down 0.14% on the day. However, the reason for its downward rally can be attributed to multiple factors including the bullish US dollar and weaker-than-expected German industrial figures. In the meantime, the upside of EUR/USD might be limited as market players prefer to wait on the sidelines ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday.

Eurozone Industrial Production Declines in July, Raising Concerns of Manufacturing Slowdown

According to official data, the Eurozone's industrial production experienced a larger decline than expected in July. This suggests that the manufacturing sector's recovery is slowing down. Industrial output fell by 1.1% in July compared to the previous month, worse than the anticipated decrease of 0.7%, and in contrast to a 0.4% increase seen in June. On an annual basis, industrial production declined by 2.2% in July, compared to a 1.1% decrease in June, well below the expected 0.3% drop. Despite these disappointing numbers, the Euro (EUR) remained relatively steady against the US Dollar (USD), trading at about 1.0735, showing only a 0.14% decrease for the day.

ECB's Inflation Expectations and Potential Impact on Interest Rates

Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) expects inflation in the Eurozone to stay above 3% next year. This raises the probability of the ECB raising interest rates for the tenth time in a row at its upcoming meeting on Thursday. Notably, the market has had mixed predictions about the ECB's interest rate decision, with around 40% of investors expecting a rate hike this week. If the unconfirmed ECB information is accurate, it could lead to another rate increase announcement. Therefore, this potential move might strengthen the Euro against the US Dollar (USD) and provide some support for the EUR/USD currency pair to limit its deeper losses.

US Dollar Strengthens on Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Outlook

On the US front, the overall value of the US dollar has been going up and down recently, but it's currently on an upward trend. However, the reason for this is that many people believe the Federal Reserve, the US central bank, will continue with its tough stance on interest rates. This stance is making US Treasury bond yields go up, which is good for the dollar. In the meantime, the market expects the Fed to keep interest rates higher for a while and predict one more 0.25% increase before the year is over. This confidence in the Fed's plan is making the dollar more appealing and pushing the EUR/USD currency pair down. (edited)

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair concluded the previous session on a notably positive note, probing the resistance of the evident bearish channel showcased on the analytical chart. Notably, it has sustained below this resistance, commencing today with a bearish inclination, suggesting a potential continuation of the prevailing downtrend. The subsequent primary objective is set at 1.0635.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) aligns with the aforementioned resistance, amplifying its robustness. Concurrently, the stochastic oscillator displays a clear wane in its positive momentum, reinforcing the prognosis for a decline in upcoming sessions.

Given these dynamics, the bearish trajectory is anticipated in both intraday and short-term scenarios, unless there's a breach beyond 1.0785 that remains sustained. Today's trading spectrum is projected to span from a support at 1.0660 to a resistance ceiling of 1.0810.

Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair is experiencing an uptick, hovering around 1.0730. This upward movement can be attributed to a weakening US Dollar (USD). The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently declining, standing at approximately 104.60, despite robust performance in US Treasury yields.

Although, the US dollar is expected to maintain its strength, thanks to previously released US economic data. Market participants are awaiting the release of August's US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data scheduled for Wednesday, as it holds the potential to provide useful insights into inflation trends, which in turn can influence trading decisions involving the EUR/USD pair.

Impact of US Economic Policies on EUR/USD Currency Pair

It's worth noting that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen expressed confidence in the US's ability to manage inflation without harming jobs. She also mentioned that inflation is going down. This is why, Investors are expecting the Fed to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in either November or December. This could limit the EUR/USD currency pair's potential to go up.

Moreover, Fed Governor Christopher Waller mentioned that they can make changes to interest rates based on how the economy is doing. On a related note, Fed Boston President Susan Collins has cautioned against being too strict with monetary policy and advocates for a careful approach. Meanwhile, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee recently talked about the Fed's goal of reaching a "golden path" where inflation decreases without causing a recession.

Thus, the potential interest rate hikes in the US could limit the upward potential of the EUR/USD currency pair by underpinning the US dollar.

ECB's Rate Expectations and China's CPI Impact on EUR/USD Sentiment

Across the ocean, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to keep interest rates steady in their upcoming Thursday meeting. According to recent figures from Germany, consumer prices in August closely matched expectations, with a 6.4% increase compared to the previous year. The core price index also held steady, showing a 6.1% rise.

Another factor impacting the Euro's performance was China's recent release of their Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August. The report revealed a modest 0.1% increase in prices compared to the previous year, falling short of the anticipated 0.2% rise. However, it's worth noting that this is an improvement from the previous month when prices actually dropped by -0.3%.

Traders are closely watching China's economic situation, looking for clues about the challenges that Chinese authorities are dealing with. The market anticipates that Beijing will introduce more monetary and fiscal measures to help achieve their goal of reaching a 5% GDP growth rate for the current year.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has initiated today with an upward trajectory, distancing itself from the 1.0700 threshold. Current indications from the stochastic oscillator suggest a positive convergence, leading us to anticipate potential gains in the forthcoming sessions. The immediate target is set at 1.0785; a breach of this level could further propel the pair towards the 1.0880 region in the short term.

It's pivotal to mention that if the pair struggles to surpass 1.0785, it may revert to its primary bearish course. Conversely, a descent below the 1.0700 mark would nullify our projected bullish outlook, inducing a decline. For today's trading, we forecast the EUR/USD to oscillate between a support level of 1.0650 and a resistance at 1.0810.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair has initiated today with an upward trajectory, distancing itself from the 1.0700 threshold. Current indications from the stochastic oscillator suggest a positive convergence, leading us to anticipate potential gains in the forthcoming sessions. The immediate target is set at 1.0785; a breach of this level could further propel the pair towards the 1.0880 region in the short term.

It's pivotal to mention that if the pair struggles to surpass 1.0785, it may revert to its primary bearish course. Conversely, a descent below the 1.0700 mark would nullify our projected bullish outlook, inducing a decline. For today's trading, we forecast the EUR/USD to oscillate between a support level of 1.0650 and a resistance at 1.0810.

EUR/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07225

Take Profit – 1.07666

Stop Loss – 1.06871

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.25

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$441/ -$354

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$44/ -$35

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has firmly established support at the 1.0700 threshold, currently exhibiting a mild upward tendency, influenced by positive stochastic readings. There's potential for the pair to approach and test the pivotal 1.0785 resistance level before anticipated retracement.

The descending channel remains a dominant force in dictating the primary bearish trajectory, with the EMA50 consistently reinforcing this movement. The overarching bearish outlook remains intact for the foreseeable future unless the currency manages to breach and sustain above the 1.0785 mark. It's worth noting that our subsequent significant objective is pegged at 1.0635.

Today's trading range is projected between the support at 1.0635 and resistance at 1.0785.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07314

Take Profit – 1.06872

Stop Loss – 1.07716

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$442/ -$402

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$44/ -$40

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair managed to halt its previous losing streak and garnered some buying interest during the Asian session on Friday, reversing a significant portion of the prior day's decline, which had taken it to the 1.0685 region, a three-month low. However, this upward movement was largely fueled by the mild weakness in the US dollar. On the contrary, the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue raising interest rates could limit the substantial gains for the Euro (EUR) against the US dollar.

USD Retreats Amid Profit-Taking and Rate Hike Expectations

The broad-based US dollar has retreated from recent highs as investors take profits ahead of China's inflation data and the G20 leaders summit. This decline is driven by lower US Treasury bond yields and a steadier stock market, reducing demand for the safe-haven US dollar. However, the dollar may not fall significantly because the Federal Reserve (Fed) plans to keep raising interest rates, which supports bond yields. Strong US jobless claims and positive economic data indicate a robust US economy, reinforcing the Fed's rate hike strategy.

This suggests the EUR/USD pair could experience some upward pressure due to the weaker US dollar stemming from improved market sentiment. Still, potential rate hikes by the Federal Reserve could limit significant gains for the Euro (EUR) against the US dollar (USD).

Mixed Signals from ECB and Upcoming Data

On the flip side, European Central Bank (ECB) officials have given mixed signals regarding future interest rate increases. While Slovak policymaker Peter Kazimir supports a rate hike in September due to high inflation, ECB Governing Council member Ignazio Visco believes the ECB is nearing a point where it should stop raising rates. This uncertainty could discourage traders from making strong bullish bets on the Euro (EUR) and may limit significant gains for the EUR/USD pair, as the lack of clarity from the ECB affects market sentiment and expectations for the Euro's performance against the US dollar.

Looking forward, traders will pay attention to German CPI data and French Industrial Production figures for market direction. No significant US economic data is expected, so the US dollar's fate depends on bond yields and overall market sentiment. The EUR/USD pair is likely to continue its eight-week losing streak, with a downward trend expected due to uncertainty ahead of the important ECB meeting next week.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair has firmly established support at the 1.0700 threshold, currently exhibiting a mild upward tendency, influenced by positive stochastic readings. There's potential for the pair to approach and test the pivotal 1.0785 resistance level before anticipated retracement.

The descending channel remains a dominant force in dictating the primary bearish trajectory, with the EMA50 consistently reinforcing this movement. The overarching bearish outlook remains intact for the foreseeable future unless the currency manages to breach and sustain above the 1.0785 mark. It's worth noting that our subsequent significant objective is pegged at 1.0635.

Today's trading range is projected between the support at 1.0635 and resistance at 1.0785.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair continues its bearish trajectory, approaching our primary forecasted level at 1.0700. As the market opened, the currency exhibited a lateral movement, signaling an anticipation of further bearish momentum to guide the price towards its subsequent target at 1.0635.

The descending channel remains a dominant factor in steering the anticipated bearish movement, further bolstered by the consistent influence of the EMA50. It's crucial to underscore that sustaining this bearish course hinges on the price maintaining below the thresholds of 1.0785 and 1.0815.

Today's trading parameters are projected to span from a support level at 1.0635 to a resistance level at 1.0785.

EUR/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.07362

Take Profit – 1.06704

Stop Loss – 1.07762

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$658/ -$400

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$65/ -$40

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is on a downward trend and recently hit an intraday low around 1.0718. However, the decline is mainly due to disappointing Eurozone data, causing EUR/USD to drop by 0.14% to 1.0709 level. It is worth noting that the shared currency is under pressure because the European Central Bank (ECB) is in a silent period before its upcoming monetary policy meeting, creating uncertainty.

Furthermore, concerns about a Eurozone recession contrast with the more positive outlook for the US economy, fueled by discussions of a softer landing. These contrasting economic situations are causing the major currency pair (EUR/USD) to remain weak, with traders closely watching for important economic data like Germany's Industrial Production numbers for July and the final Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures for the second quarter (Q2) to get a better sense of the economic trends in these regions.

Eurozone's Q2 2023 GDP Growth Falls Short of Expectations

According to the final estimate by Eurostat, the Eurozone's economy grew less than anticipated in the second quarter of 2023. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the region expanded by just 0.1% in the quarter ending June, compared to the initial estimate of 0.3% and market expectations of the same figure. On an annual basis, the Eurozone's GDP grew by 0.5%, lower than the initially estimated 0.6% and below market expectations of a 0.6% increase. Hence, this disappointing economic data has put additional selling pressure on the Euro, causing the EUR/USD currency pair to drop by 0.14% to a trading rate of 1.0709.

German Industrial Production Declines in July, Weighs on Euro

Elsewhere, official data revealed that German Industrial Production in July fell more than anticipated, signaling further challenges in the country's manufacturing sector. Industrial output in Germany, a key player in the Eurozone, declined by 0.8% on a month-on-month basis, according to figures adjusted for seasonal and calendar effects, compared to the expected -0.5% and the previous month's -1.4%.

On an annual basis, Germany's Industrial Production decreased by 2.1% in July, in contrast to a 1.5% drop in June. Therefore, these weak industrial numbers have left the Euro vulnerable against the US Dollar, with the EUR/USD currency pair slipping by by 0.14%.

US Dollar Gains Strength on Positive Economic Indicators and Global Concerns

Across the ocean, the US Dollar found support from a surprisingly positive ISM Services PMI. This, along with optimistic statements from the Federal Reserve about the US economy's strength, made people more comfortable with the idea of higher interest rates and a smooth economic transition, as suggested by the Fed's Beige Book. Furthermore, the ongoing tensions between the US and China over trade and Taiwan, plus worries about weaker economies in other major countries, boosted the demand for the US Dollar. This weighing on the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair continues its bearish trajectory, approaching our primary forecasted level at 1.0700. As the market opened, the currency exhibited a lateral movement, signaling an anticipation of further bearish momentum to guide the price towards its subsequent target at 1.0635.

The descending channel remains a dominant factor in steering the anticipated bearish movement, further bolstered by the consistent influence of the EMA50. It's crucial to underscore that sustaining this bearish course hinges on the price maintaining below the thresholds of 1.0785 and 1.0815.

Today's trading parameters are projected to span from a support level at 1.0635 to a resistance level at 1.0785.