GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* Gold prices closed the week around 1977.25, still lingering in that range, but the stochastic indicator is flashing overbought signals, adding some negative pressure alongside the EMA50.
* These factors align with a correctional bearish trend, targeting 1945.20. However, a break above 1977.25 could lead to additional gains, possibly reaching 2016.95.
* Today's trading range is expected to be between 1955.00 as support and 1990.00 as resistance, with a bearish trend in play.
Gold prices ended the week at the cool level of 1977.25, and they're still hanging out around that range. But uh-oh, the stochastic indicator seems to have lost its groove and is flashing those overbought signals. That's putting some negative pressure on the market, especially with the EMA50 throwing shade.
All of these factors are like a cheerleader for the correctional bearish trend, pushing for a target of 1945.20. However, if the gold price can break free from the negative scenario and surpass 1977.25, then we might see it score some extra gains, maybe even reaching 2016.95.
So, for today's trading, we're looking at a range between 1955.00 as support and 1990.00 as resistance. And in terms of trend, it's feeling a bit bearish, like a grizzly getting ready for a downward dance.
Let's keep an eye on those gold prices and see where they groove next!
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below 1977
Stop Loss – 1990
Take Profit – 1951
Risk to Reward – 1 : 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2600/ -$1250
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$260/ -$125
GOLD Price Analysis – May 19, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold took a breather yesterday as the Fed's plans for tightening or rate cuts this year became less certain. The precious metal kicked back, enjoying a downtime of -0.7% at 59723. While some Fed officers cast doubts on a pause in rate increases come June, the report of the claim provided a boost, revealing the labor market's resilience.
Gold felt the pressure from the US debt ceiling debate, but it wasn't all bad news. The currency and Treasury rates reaped the rewards. Thomas Barkin from the Richmond Fed was uncertain if inflation would keep dropping until it hit the coveted 2% mark set by the US central bank.
Meanwhile, other Asian markets showed little interest in physical gold, but crafty Chinese dealers offered enticing discounts to lure customers. As local prices dipped from their recent record highs, India saw a glimmer of increased demand for the precious metal. Indian dealers sweetened the deal by offering discounts of up to $11 per ounce, a drop from the $23 discount last week.
However, gold demand in India took a dip of 17% in the March quarter, hitting its lowest level in 10 quarters. The World Gold Council predicts that demand will remain subdued even in the upcoming June and September quarters due to sky-high prices.
Gold is taking a breather, catching its golden rays, but the journey ahead remains uncertain. Stay tuned for more dazzling updates!
GOLD – Technical Outlook
On Friday, the price of gold experienced a slight recovery after reaching a support level around $1952. This led to an oversold condition, prompting sellers to cover short positions and initiate buying positions to take advantage of the lower prices. Currently, gold is trading around $1962 and could potentially reach the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1968.
Further demand may push the price to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $1978. Additionally, a bullish scenario could lead to levels of $1987 or $1995, representing the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively.
Technical indicators such as RSI and MACD are showing signs of sellers being exhausted, indicating a possible shift in market sentiment. Today's pivot point is expected to be around $1952, with support at $1940 and potentially lower at $1933.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 19, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* Gold demonstrates a rebound after reaching a support level at $1952.
* Price may reach the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1968.
* Bullish momentum could lead to levels at $1987 and $1995.
On Friday, the price of gold experienced a slight recovery after reaching a support level around $1952. This led to an oversold condition, prompting sellers to cover short positions and initiate buying positions to take advantage of the lower prices. Currently, gold is trading around $1962 and could potentially reach the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $1968.
Further demand may push the price to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $1978. Additionally, a bullish scenario could lead to levels of $1987 or $1995, representing the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels, respectively.
Technical indicators such as RSI and MACD are showing signs of sellers being exhausted, indicating a possible shift in market sentiment. Today's pivot point is expected to be around $1952, with support at $1940 and potentially lower at $1933.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above 1951
Stop Loss – 1940
Take Profit – 1980
Risk to Reward – 1 : 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2630/ -$1229
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$263/ -$122
GOLD Price Analysis – May 18, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The yellow-Metal Gold price failed to stop its downward rally and dropped to near a two-week low around 1,976 level. Gold price dropped and reached an intraday low level of 1,972. However, the decline can be attributed to the strength of the US dollar, which has put pressure on the price of gold. Moreover, the expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve have played a significant role in undermining gold prices.
Stronger US Dollar Puts Pressure on Gold Prices
As mentioned earlier, the US dollar is strengthening for the second consecutive day, reaching its highest level in nearly two months. Thus, this upward momentum is posing challenges for the price of gold, as a stronger dollar makes it harder for gold prices to increase. However, the strength of the dollar is primarily driven by comments made by various Federal Reserve officials, which have contributed to market expectations of a more hawkish monetary policy stance.
They have expressed a more hawkish view, meaning they are less likely to cut interest rates soon. This has made the US dollar more attractive to investors, which in turn puts pressure on the price of gold. One Fed official, Loretta Mester, even mentioned that interest rates might need to be raised further.
Fed's Hawkish Stance and Rising Inflation Expectations Pose Challenges for Gold Prices
Federal Reserve officials like Austan Goolsbee and Raphael Bostic have stated that it's not yet the right time to lower interest rates. They have highlighted the significance of managing inflation and emphasized that even if the unemployment rate increases in the coming months, it is crucial to maintain control over inflation.
These statements, combined with increased consumer inflation expectations, have led to market speculation that the Federal Reserve will maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. This, in turn, creates another barrier for gold prices, as gold does not provide any yield or interest. Investors may be more inclined to favor assets that offer higher returns, dampening the demand for gold.
Global Risk Sentiment and Lack of Buying Interest Weigh on Gold Prices
Apart from this, the declines in gold prices were further bolstered by the improved global risk sentiment, which could discourage traders from making strong bullish bets on gold. Furthermore, the absence of significant buying interest indicates that gold is more likely to continue its downward trajectory, with any attempts at recovery potentially short-lived.
Investors are now focusing on upcoming data related to the US housing market and monitoring developments in the negotiations over the US debt limit, as these factors could provide new momentum and direction for the market.
Gold Prices Find Support Amid Debt Ceiling Negotiations
On the positive side, the precious-metal prices receive some support as the ongoing negotiations to raise the US government's borrowing limit contribute to a safe-haven appeal for gold and help prevent significant declines, at least for now.
House of Representatives Speaker Kevin McCarthy stated that there are still substantial differences between the parties involved. Both US President Joe Biden and Republican leaders remain cautiously optimistic about reaching an agreement to raise the US debt ceiling, which adds to the current situation surrounding gold prices.
GOLD – Technical Outlook
The price of the precious metal gold continues to experience downward pressure and is currently trading around the $1980 level. On the two-hour timeframe, a bearish candlestick pattern known as an engulfing pattern has formed, indicating a strong bearish bias and suggesting that sellers are dominating the market below the $1985 resistance level.
This resistance level is further reinforced by the 50-day exponential moving average, visible on the two-hour timeframe. Additionally, both the RSI and MACD indicators are in the selling zone, signaling further selling potential in the gold market.
Therefore, gold is likely to encounter immediate resistance around the $1985 level, with potential support found at $1975 and $1965 if gold remains below the key $1975 level.
Related:
* GBP/USD Price Analysis – May 18, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* Gold continues to face downward pressure, trading around $1980 level
* Bearish engulfing pattern on the two-hour timeframe suggests a strong bearish bias
* Resistance at $1985 level reinforced by the 50-day exponential moving average
The price of the precious metal gold continues to experience downward pressure and is currently trading around the $1980 level. On the two-hour timeframe, a bearish candlestick pattern known as an engulfing pattern has formed, indicating a strong bearish bias and suggesting that sellers are dominating the market below the $1985 resistance level.
This resistance level is further reinforced by the 50-day exponential moving average, visible on the two-hour timeframe. Additionally, both the RSI and MACD indicators are in the selling zone, signaling further selling potential in the gold market.
Therefore, gold is likely to encounter immediate resistance around the $1985 level, with potential support found at $1975 and $1965 if gold remains below the key $1975 level.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below 1982
Stop Loss – 1986
Take Profit – 1974
Risk to Reward – 1 : 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$800/ -$400
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$80/ -$40
GOLD Price Analysis – May 16, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The price of gold failed to maintain its upward rally and experienced a slight drop on Tuesday. This decline can be attributed to signals from Federal Reserve officials indicating the potential for further interest rate hikes due to high inflation and a strong labor market.
It's important to note that gold loses its appeal when US interest rates rise because it does not generate interest or dividends. As a result, investors tend to sell gold and seek assets that offer higher potential returns, leading to bearish pressure on gold prices.
On a positive note, gold did see some gains in the previous trading session. These gains were driven by ongoing economic uncertainty, particularly concerns about a potential recession or banking crisis. During such uncertain times, investors often turn to gold as a safe-haven asset, increasing its demand and increasing its price.
However, these upward movements were short-lived as traders approached the market cautiously in anticipation of key economic readings from the United States, starting with retail sales and industrial production, which were scheduled for later in the day.
Looking ahead, the upcoming speeches by Federal Reserve officials, including Chair Jerome Powell on Friday, are expected to impact the price of gold. Investors closely follow these statements as they provide insights into the future direction of monetary policy and interest rates.
Global Economic Slowdown Drive Up Gold Prices
In addition, worries surrounding a global economic slowdown have had a significant impact on bolstering the price of gold as a safe-haven asset.
These concerns were further heightened by the recent preliminary reading from the University of Michigan, which revealed that consumer sentiment in the United States hit a six-month low in May.
The survey notably indicated that consumers anticipate an annual inflation rate of 3.2% over the next five years, marking the highest level since 2011.
This scenario is likely to exert pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for an extended duration in order to address inflationary pressures.
US Dollar Retreats from Five-Week High Amid Debt Ceiling Concerns, Boosting Gold Prices
The broad-based US Dollar experienced a retreat from its five-week high and declined on Monday due to concerns surrounding the standoff over the US debt ceiling.
This decline in the US Dollar ultimately led to a boost in the price of gold. President Joe Biden has expressed his intention to hold discussions with congressional leaders in order to address the issue of raising the debt limit and prevent a potential default.
Consequently, some investors have decided to take profits on their US Dollar positions following the recent strong gains in the currency. The decline in the US Dollar was therefore viewed as another significant factor that capped the gains in gold prices.
GOLD – Technical Outlook
Gold prices have held steady around the $2016.95 mark, displaying little change since yesterday. The bearish trend remains intact, suggesting a potential correctional target of $1977.25.
Significantly, the Stochastic indicator indicates clear negative signals, indicating a possible continuation of the anticipated decline. The presence of the EMA50 indicator reinforces this negative pressure.
However, it is worth noting that a breakthrough above the key levels of $2016.95 and $2027.20 could invalidate the bearish scenario and potentially trigger a renewed attempt to regain the main bullish trend.
For today's trading session, market participants should anticipate a trading range between the support level of $1995.00 and the resistance level of $2027.00. Based on current market conditions, the forecast suggests a bearish trend for the day.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 16, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis – May 15, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
Gold found stability on Monday following three consecutive days of losses, as the dollar weakened and investors remained cautious about the standoff over the U.S. debt ceiling, which could raise concerns about a global economic slowdown.
At 1132 GMT, spot gold rose by 0.1% to $2,013.99 per ounce, rebounding from its lowest level since May 5 reached on Friday. Meanwhile, U.S. gold futures remained mostly unchanged at $2,018.80.
According to Han Tan, chief market analyst at Exinity, gold is still supported above the $2,000 mark due to ongoing concerns surrounding U.S. debt-ceiling discussions and the belief that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate hikes.
In May, U.S. consumer sentiment dropped to a six-month low due to concerns that political negotiations over increasing the federal government's borrowing limit could trigger a recession.
To address this issue, U.S. President Joe Biden announced plans to meet with congressional leaders on Tuesday to discuss a strategy for raising the nation's debt limit and avoiding a catastrophic default.
Exinity's Tan cautioned that there is a possibility of gold being temporarily pushed below the $2,000 level if a major risk-on sentiment emerges from a resolution to raise the U.S. debt ceiling in the near term.
He further noted that gold could face additional downward pressure if Federal Reserve officials signal the likelihood of another interest rate hike. The appeal of gold diminishes in the presence of higher interest rates.
A number of Federal Reserve representatives, including Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to deliver speeches this week. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market currently assigns a 78.8% probability of the Fed maintaining the current interest rate level in June.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman stated on Friday that if inflation remains high, it is likely that the central bank will need to further increase interest rates.
GOLD – Technical Outlook
Gold prices have dropped below the $2016.95 level, indicating a continued bearish correction and a potential decline towards the target level of $1977.25. The EMA50 is exerting downward pressure on the price, supporting the ongoing bearish trend.
It is important to note that the stochastic indicator has clearly lost its positive momentum, adding to the signals that suggest a further decline.
Consequently, our outlook remains bearish for the near future, unless there is a breakthrough above the $2016.95 level followed by $2024.00, and a sustained hold above these levels.
The projected trading range for today is expected to be between the support level of $1995.00 and the resistance level of $2025.00.
Related:
* EUR/USD Price Analysis – May 15, 2023
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* Gold is exhibiting a strong bearish bias, declining from $2017 to $2007.
* The four-hour chart shows a significant bearish engulfing candle, indicating prevailing bearish sentiment.
* Gold is likely to target the immediate support level at $2004, with potential further declines towards $1990 and $1982, influenced by the violation of an upward trend line.
Good morning, everyone. Today marks the final trading day of the week, and gold is currently displaying a strong bearish bias, having dropped from the $2017 level to $2007.
On the four-hour time frame, we can observe that gold has formed a significant bearish engulfing candle, completely engulfing the previous bullish candle. This indicates that the bearish sentiment is prevailing in the market.
Given the current bearish sentiment, it is highly likely that gold will target the immediate support level at $2004. A break below this level has the potential to drive gold prices towards $1990 and $1982. This bearish outlook is primarily influenced by the violation of an upward trend line visible on the four-hour time frame.
As long as gold prices continue to close below this trend line, the bearish sentiment is expected to dominate the market, unless we receive any supportive fundamental news from the US economy.
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Sell Below $2015
Stop Loss – $2025
Take Profit – $1990
Risk to Reward – 1 : 2.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2500/ -$1000
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$250/ -$100
GOLD Price Analysis – May 09, 2023
Daily Price Outlook
The price of gold (XAU/USD) has risen slightly above the $2,000 mark and is up 0.12% intraday to around $2,023 at the moment. This comes after a two-day uptrend that helped to recover from heavy losses on Friday. The focus is on US inflation data which could give hints about the end of US interest rates.
On Monday, gold rose in anticipation of this week's inflation statistics. This followed the release of data indicating that US job growth had accelerated in April, demonstrating continued strength in the labor market. However, there is still a risk of a recession which could lead markets to factor in potential Fed rate cuts, prompting discretionary traders to invest in gold. Investors tend to favor non-yielding gold when interest rates are low and other assets are less competitive.
According to CME's FedWatch tool, markets see a 31% chance of a rate cut in July and an 85% chance of the Fed keeping rates at their current level. American banks have tightened their credit requirements in the early months of the year and experienced a decline in demand for loans from customers and businesses, according to the Fed's senior loan officer view survey. This has led some analysts to suggest that a credit crunch may be beginning.
Austan Goolsbee, the head of the Chicago Fed, has expressed concern that a credit crunch may be starting. Han Tan, chief market judge at Exinity, believes that if the issues facing restricted banks were to resurface, this could drive investors to seek the safety of gold.
Dealers are keeping an eye on the US consumer price index (CPI), which is due to be published on Wednesday, among other things.
GOLD – Technical Outlook
Gold prices are currently settled around the $2,020.00 level, with continuous positive support from the EMA50. The stochastic is beginning to gather positive momentum on the intraday time frames, which leads us to believe that there are valid chances for the rise to continue in the upcoming sessions.
Our first positive station target is set at $2,048.70, and breaching this level will push the price to $2,075.25 as the next target. However, breaking $2,002.00 represents a negative factor that will push the price to start a correctional bearish wave on an intraday basis.
The expected trading range for today is between $2,007.00 support and $2,045.00 resistance. Happy trading!
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
* Gold prices have settled around $2,020.00 with positive support from EMA50.
* Stochastic is gathering positive momentum on the intraday time frames, indicating a potential rise in upcoming sessions.
* First positive station target is $2,048.70, but breaking $2,002.00 could lead to correctional bearish wave. Expected trading range today is between $2,007.00 support and $2,045.00 resistance.
Gold prices are currently settled around the $2,020.00 level, with continuous positive support from the EMA50. The stochastic is beginning to gather positive momentum on the intraday time frames, which leads us to believe that there are valid chances for the rise to continue in the upcoming sessions.
Our first positive station target is set at $2,048.70, and breaching this level will push the price to $2,075.25 as the next target. However, breaking $2,002.00 represents a negative factor that will push the price to start a correctional bearish wave on the intraday basis.
The expected trading range for today is between $2,007.00 support and $2,045.00 resistance. Happy trading!
Gold (XAU/USD) Trade Idea
Entry Price – Buy Above $2020
Stop Loss – $2005
Take Profit – $2055
Risk to Reward – 1 : 2.33
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3500/ -$1500
Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$350/ -$150