GOLD Price Analysis – Dec 02, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) remains under pressure, hovering around the 2,630 level, with an intra-day low of 2,621 on Monday.
However, the reason for this decline is the recent rebound in the US Dollar, fueled by rising expectations that US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans could trigger inflationary pressures.
This, in turn, reduces the likelihood of near-term Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cuts. Therefore, the stronger dollar, along with rising US Treasury bond yields, has pushed gold lower.
US Dollar Strength and Geopolitical Tensions Impact Gold Prices
On the US front, the US dollar has regained strength after hitting its lowest point since November 12, driven by rising US Treasury bond yields.
This has put pressure on gold, as the stronger dollar reduces the appeal of gold priced in USD. Furthermore, Trump’s tariff plans, particularly targeting BRICS nations, are fueling concerns that they could ignite a trade war and push inflation higher, reducing the likelihood of Fed rate cuts.
In addition to the economic outlook, the increasing geopolitical tensions continue to support gold’s safe-haven demand.
However, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war remains unresolved, and recent airstrikes by Russian and Syrian jets on Syrian rebels have intensified tensions in the region.
These events contribute to investor uncertainty, supporting demand for gold as a store of value during times of global instability.
China’s Manufacturing Improvement and Key US Economic Data Could Impact Gold Prices
In Asia, China’s manufacturing sector showed signs of improvement. The official Manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 50.3 in November, while the Caixin PMI surged to 51.5, suggesting stronger private-sector expansion.
Investors hope that China may introduce additional stimulus measures to support economic growth, which could influence global market sentiment.
Looking ahead, market participants will be watching key US economic data, particularly the ISM Manufacturing PMI and the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
These data points could provide clues about the Fed's future actions, which will directly impact both the US dollar and gold prices.
If the data suggests a stronger economy, the Fed may be less likely to cut rates, which would likely strengthen the USD further, putting more pressure on gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its downward trajectory, trading at $2,625.41, down 0.92% on the day. The metal struggles to regain its footing as bearish sentiment dominates, with the price hovering below the critical pivot point at $2,645.48.
Immediate resistance is located at $2,655.31, with further hurdles at $2,669.37 and $2,686.59. A breakout above these levels could signal a short-term recovery; however, the 50-day EMA at $2,639.84 reinforces resistance, adding to the downward pressure.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $2,624.17, followed by deeper levels at $2,604.95 and $2,590.40. A sustained break below $2,624.17 could lead to further declines, targeting the next critical support at $2,590.40. The RSI at 38 reflects bearish momentum, signaling oversold conditions but with room for additional downside unless buyers step in.
The broader outlook remains cautious, as gold’s inability to reclaim the pivot point indicates ongoing bearish sentiment. Traders should watch for a decisive move above $2,645 to confirm bullish potential. Otherwise, failure to hold above immediate support could invite additional selling pressure.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Dec 02, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 29, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend, staying well-bid near the $2,661 level and even touching an intraday high of $2,666 on Friday. This upward momentum is fueled by growing concerns about the impact of US President-elect Donald Trump's trade tariffs on global economic growth.
Moreover, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war has pushing investors to gold as a safe asset. Further supporting the bullish trend are falling US Treasury yields and a dip in the US Dollar to a two-week low, both of which make the precious metal more attractive to buyers.
Apart from this, there are worries that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies could push inflation higher again, and that efforts to reduce inflation in the US stalled in October. This could stop the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates further.
If that happens, US bond yields might not drop much more, and the US Dollar could get some support. This means gold's price might not keep rising easily. Investors should be careful before making new bullish bets on gold.
US Dollar Struggles Amid Mixed Fed Outlook and Inflation Concerns, Boosting Gold
On the data front, the broad-based US Dollar is struggling to build on modest gains from Thursday. Traders are now betting on a 70% chance that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.
The uncertainty comes after the release of minutes from the November FOMC meeting, which showed that committee members were divided on how much further interest rates should be cut. This mixed view from the Fed has left traders unsure about future rate decisions.
In addition, data from the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index showed that progress in lowering inflation stalled in October.
This is adding to concerns that inflation might remain stubbornly high. Investors are also expecting that US President-elect Donald Trump's policies could push inflation up again, which may prevent the Federal Reserve from making any further rate cuts. This could limit the US Dollar’s ability to rise further.
Meanwhile, the US Treasury bond yields are facing resistance in falling even further. The 10-year US Treasury yield hit a two-week low on Wednesday due to expectations that Trump’s Treasury Secretary nominee, Scott Bessent, may prioritize controlling US deficits.
This creates uncertainty around the economic outlook for 2025, as it could impact both inflation and the bond market.
Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding the US Dollar and inflation, along with the Fed's cautious stance, could support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. Gold tends to benefit from lower interest rates and a weaker US Dollar, making it more attractive.
Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Uncertainty Boost Gold’s Safe-Haven Appeal
On the geopolitical front, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war is creating uncertainty, making investors cautious.
Russia’s recent threat to use hypersonic missiles to target decision-making centers in Ukraine has raised tensions even more. As a result, many investors are turning to safe-haven assets like gold for protection.
Meanwhile, the risk of further conflict is driving up demand for gold, which is seen as a stable investment during times of geopolitical instability.
This increased demand could support higher gold prices, as investors look for safer options to protect their investments from the growing risks and market volatility caused by the war.
As a result, gold prices are likely to remain supported in the short term. Therefore, the combination of geopolitical instability and the Fed's cautious outlook on interest rates means investors are more likely to turn to gold for protection against potential market volatility.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,660.84, up 0.88% in today’s session as the metal regains momentum above its key pivot point at $2,655.33. Supported by the 50-day EMA at $2,650.33, this level is critical for maintaining the bullish outlook.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $2,669.37, followed by higher hurdles at $2,686.49 and $2,701.56. A decisive break above these levels could signal an acceleration in the uptrend.
On the downside, key support is located at $2,635.82, with additional cushions at $2,624.17 and $2,605.31. Failure to hold these levels could lead to a deeper retracement, although strong buying interest near $2,624.17 may limit downside risks.
The RSI stands at 57, reflecting moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. This leaves room for further gains if buyers maintain control. Gold's movement above the $2,655.33 pivot point confirms a bullish bias, supported by strong technical structure.
For traders, buying opportunities above $2,655 could target $2,685 in the short term, with a stop-loss set near $2,637 to manage risks. Watch for a breakout above $2,669.37 for signs of stronger upward momentum.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Nov 29, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Resistance Levels: Immediate at $2,669.37; higher targets at $2,686.49 and $2,701.56.
- Support Levels: Strong support at $2,635.82, followed by $2,624.17.
- Trend Indicators: RSI at 57 and 50 EMA at $2,650.33 confirm bullish momentum.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,660.84, up 0.88% in today’s session as the metal regains momentum above its key pivot point at $2,655.33. Supported by the 50-day EMA at $2,650.33, this level is critical for maintaining the bullish outlook.
Immediate resistance is positioned at $2,669.37, followed by higher hurdles at $2,686.49 and $2,701.56. A decisive break above these levels could signal an acceleration in the uptrend.
On the downside, key support is located at $2,635.82, with additional cushions at $2,624.17 and $2,605.31. Failure to hold these levels could lead to a deeper retracement, although strong buying interest near $2,624.17 may limit downside risks.
The RSI stands at 57, reflecting moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. This leaves room for further gains if buyers maintain control. Gold's movement above the $2,655.33 pivot point confirms a bullish bias, supported by strong technical structure.
For traders, buying opportunities above $2,655 could target $2,685 in the short term, with a stop-loss set near $2,637 to manage risks. Watch for a breakout above $2,669.37 for signs of stronger upward momentum.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2655
Take Profit – 2685
Stop Loss – 2637
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3000/ -$1800
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$300/ -$180
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Critical Pivot: Gold remains below $2,633.90; a breakout above $2,636.56 is needed to regain bullish momentum.
- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $2,646.32, reinforced by the 50-day EMA at $2,653.22.
- Support Levels: Key support at $2,625.31; break below $2,615 may trigger deeper declines to $2,590.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,632.48, down 0.14%, as bearish momentum continues to weigh on prices below the $2,633.90 pivot point. The 4-hour chart indicates a cautious market, with immediate resistance at $2,646.32, followed by $2,655.97.
The 50-day EMA at $2,653.22 reinforces this resistance zone, making it a critical barrier for any recovery. A breakout above these levels could pave the way toward bullish momentum, targeting $2,663 and beyond.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $2,625.31, with further declines pointing to $2,590.17 and $2,576.56. The RSI at 45 reflects mild bearish sentiment, though it has yet to reach oversold conditions, leaving room for further downside pressure.
The current setup suggests that gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on a decisive move above $2,636.56 or below $2,624. A break above the pivot could trigger buying momentum, targeting $2,653, while a sustained drop below $2,615 would likely accelerate selling pressure.
Traders should monitor these key levels closely. The recommended strategy includes buying above $2,624 with a take-profit target at $2,653 and a stop-loss at $2,615 to manage downside risks effectively.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2624
Take Profit – 2653
Stop Loss – 2615
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$527/ -$316
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$52/ -$31
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 28, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) managed to reverse its earlier downward trend and gained some positive momentum, hovering around the 2,646 level and reaching an intraday high of 2,647.
Investors are still worried about the potential impact of US President-elect Donald Trump's tariff plans on the global economy.
On top of that, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to add to the uncertainty. These concerns are keeping gold in demand as a safe-haven asset, helping it maintain its bullish traction.
Despite gold’s attempt to maintain its bullish momentum, its upside remains limited as the US Dollar found fresh support.
The Federal Reserve’s likely slower pace of rate cuts, backed by upbeat US economic data earlier this week, pushed US Treasury yields slightly higher, boosting the Dollar’s appeal.
This limited the upside for the non-yielding metal. On top of that, a more optimistic market mood and quieter trading due to a US holiday kept gold bulls from making any bold moves.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Positive Economic Data, But Gold Holds Firm on Inflation Concerns
On the US front, the US Dollar gained strength, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve may slow its pace of interest rate cuts. This optimism came after Wednesday’s positive economic data.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, a key inflation measure, rose to 2.3% in October from 2.1% in September. Core PCE, excluding food and energy, also climbed to 2.8%.
The economy grew at a robust 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending, which surged by 3.5%. Unemployment claims fell slightly to 213,000, reflecting a stable job market, though Durable Goods Orders missed expectations, showing a modest 0.2% rise.
Despite the stronger US Dollar and higher Treasury yields, which typically put pressure on Gold, the precious metal continued to hold its ground as concerns about inflation, especially with President-elect Donald Trump’s potential policies, kept Gold in demand as a safe-haven asset.
Besides this, the Federal Reserve’s indication that it might pause rate cuts if inflation stays high also provided some support for Gold prices.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,632.48, down 0.14%, as bearish momentum continues to weigh on prices below the $2,633.90 pivot point. The 4-hour chart indicates a cautious market, with immediate resistance at $2,646.32, followed by $2,655.97.
The 50-day EMA at $2,653.22 reinforces this resistance zone, making it a critical barrier for any recovery. A breakout above these levels could pave the way toward bullish momentum, targeting $2,663 and beyond.
On the downside, immediate support is observed at $2,625.31, with further declines pointing to $2,590.17 and $2,576.56. The RSI at 45 reflects mild bearish sentiment, though it has yet to reach oversold conditions, leaving room for further downside pressure.
The current setup suggests that gold’s near-term trajectory hinges on a decisive move above $2,636.56 or below $2,624. A break above the pivot could trigger buying momentum, targeting $2,653, while a sustained drop below $2,615 would likely accelerate selling pressure.
Traders should monitor these key levels closely. The recommended strategy includes buying above $2,624 with a take-profit target at $2,653 and a stop-loss at $2,615 to manage downside risks effectively.
Related News
- USD/JPY Price Analysis – Nov 28, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Immediate resistance at $2,646.32: A breakout could target $2,655.97 and beyond.
- Support at $2,624.72: Failure to hold above this level may lead to a bearish reversal.
- RSI at 48: Indicates consolidation, with potential for breakout or pullback depending on market catalysts.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,644.20, up 0.43%, as the metal continues its rebound from recent lows. On the 4-hour chart, the price is firmly positioned above the pivot point at $2,636.43, reflecting a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,646.32, closely aligned with recent highs, while further resistance is seen at $2,655.97. A decisive breakout above these levels could pave the way for an extended rally toward $2,665.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,624.72, with secondary levels at $2,590.15 and $2,576.56. A break below the pivot point could expose gold to bearish momentum, testing the $2,600 mark and possibly lower levels.
Technical indicators point to a neutral to slightly bullish bias. The RSI currently stands at 48, signaling consolidation with room for either a breakout or a pullback depending on upcoming catalysts. Traders are closely watching inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for cues.
The overall technical picture suggests that gold’s ability to sustain above the pivot point at $2,636.43 is critical for maintaining upward momentum. However, strong resistance at $2,646.32 could limit gains unless fresh drivers emerge.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 2635
Take Profit – 2655
Stop Loss – 2625
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2000/ -$1000
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$200/ -$100
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold prices (XAU/USD) picked up some further bullish momentum and climbing to an intraday high of $2,653.82. However, the increase came as investors sought safety amid rising global tensions, particularly the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which continues to unsettle markets.
Adding to the uncertainty, concerns about President-elect Donald Trump's potential tariff policies have made gold a more attractive option for investors looking to safeguard their assets in these uncertain times.
Moving ahead, traders await the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index and quarterly Gross Domestic Product Annualized scheduled to be released later in the North American session.
Gold Gains Amid Weaker US Dollar and Cautious Fed Signals
On the US front, the US dollar has been under pressure, weighed down by bond market optimism and cautious signals from the Federal Reserve. The latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes from November 7 show that policymakers are hesitant to cut interest rates further, citing easing inflation and strong job growth.
Meanwhile, the Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee suggested that the Fed is moving toward a neutral rate policy, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari hinted at the possibility of another rate cut in December.
Adding to the uncertainty, US President-elect Donald Trump is making key appointments, with Jamieson Greer expected to become the US Trade Representative, emphasizing tariffs as a cornerstone of Trump’s economic plans.
Moreover, Scott Bessent, a seasoned Wall Street figure, has been nominated as Treasury Secretary, signaling a focus on fiscal conservatism. These developments have supported gains in the US bond market, creating mixed sentiment around the dollar.
On the US economic front, the recent data like the preliminary S&P Global PMI, suggests the Federal Reserve might slow down its rate cuts. Futures markets currently estimate a 57.7% chance of a quarter-point rate cut in December. This cautious outlook on monetary policy keeps traders focused on inflation trends and upcoming Fed decisions.
Therefore, the weaker US dollar and cautious Federal Reserve outlook support gold prices as investors seek safe-haven assets. However, uncertainty around future rate cuts and strong US bond market performance may limit gold's upside in the near term.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,644.20, up 0.43%, as the metal continues its rebound from recent lows. On the 4-hour chart, the price is firmly positioned above the pivot point at $2,636.43, reflecting a cautiously bullish sentiment.
Immediate resistance lies at $2,646.32, closely aligned with recent highs, while further resistance is seen at $2,655.97. A decisive breakout above these levels could pave the way for an extended rally toward $2,665.
On the downside, immediate support is at $2,624.72, with secondary levels at $2,590.15 and $2,576.56. A break below the pivot point could expose gold to bearish momentum, testing the $2,600 mark and possibly lower levels.
Technical indicators point to a neutral to slightly bullish bias. The RSI currently stands at 48, signaling consolidation with room for either a breakout or a pullback depending on upcoming catalysts. Traders are closely watching inflation data and Federal Reserve commentary for cues.
The overall technical picture suggests that gold’s ability to sustain above the pivot point at $2,636.43 is critical for maintaining upward momentum. However, strong resistance at $2,646.32 could limit gains unless fresh drivers emerge.
Related News
- GBP/USD Price Analysis – Nov 27, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 26, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) is facing some difficulty in gaining momentum and has been stuck around the $2,600 mark, hovering near its lowest point in a week during the European session on Tuesday. However, the tariff threat from US President-elect Donald Trump sparked some brief safe-haven demand, giving gold a small boost.
Despite this, concerns that the Federal Reserve might take a less dovish approach are preventing gold from making significant gains, putting a lid on its upward potential for now.
Meanwhile, the market is increasingly confident that President-elect Donald Trump’s expansionary policies could drive inflation higher, which may push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at a slower pace. This belief is fueling a fresh rise in US Treasury bond yields and giving the US Dollar a boost. Hence, the stronger dollar, in turn, is putting more pressure on gold prices.
Moreover, the increasing optimism around Scott Bessent’s nomination as the US Treasury Secretary and hopes for a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah are further limiting gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset. Moving ahead, market participants are now focusing on the upcoming FOMC minutes for clues about the Federal Reserve's future rate-cut plans.
Impact of US Economic Trends and Fed Expectations on Gold Prices
The US Dollar continues to rise and stay strong, mainly because people expect President-elect Donald Trump's policies to boost inflation. This could lead the Federal Reserve to slow down its interest rate cuts. As a result, US Treasury bond yields are going up, which makes the US Dollar stronger and puts some pressure on gold prices.
However, the ongoing hopes that Scott Bessent, the possible US Treasury Secretary, will take a more gradual approach to tariffs have led to a sharp drop in US Treasury bond yields. This has temporarily weakened the USD, but the decline in bond yields remains limited due to the ongoing expectation of a less dovish Fed.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee indicated that the central bank will continue to lower rates unless there is clear evidence of an overheated economy, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari suggested another rate cut could be considered at the December FOMC meeting.
However, traders are scaling back their bets on a 25-basis-point rate cut in December, as Trump's policies are expected to fuel inflation. This keeps US bond yields higher and helps the USD fill its weekly bearish gap, further limiting gold's upside potential.
Market participants are now looking to the FOMC minutes and upcoming economic data, including the Q3 GDP revision and the PCE Price Index, for more insights on the Fed’s future actions.
Therefore, the stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury bond yields limit gold's upside potential. As expectations of slower rate cuts and higher inflation grow, demand for gold remains subdued, keeping the precious metal under pressure in the market.
Geopolitical Tensions and Ceasefire Hopes Impact Gold Prices
On the geopolitical front, the possibility of a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah have put pressure on gold prices at the start of the week. However, tensions are still high in the Middle East. Israeli forces have intensified their operations in northern Gaza, and there have been ongoing strikes in Lebanon.
These actions continue to raise concerns about a further escalation in the region, which could eventually increase demand for gold if the situation worsens.
Despite the ceasefire hopes, the geopolitical risks remain, keeping the market on edge. If the conflict escalates further, it could drive more investors to seek gold as a safe haven, which may provide some support for the precious metal in the near future.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,623.21, down 0.09%, as it consolidates below the critical pivot point at $2,631.72. Technical indicators suggest that bearish momentum dominates, with immediate support at $2,605.31. A break below this level could expose gold to deeper supports at $2,582.37 and $2,561.16.
On the upside, resistance levels lie at $2,647.56, the 50-day EMA at $2,663.32, and further at $2,687.93. These levels present formidable challenges, especially as gold remains weighed down by a weaker Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 36, which reflects oversold conditions but insufficient buying pressure to trigger a recovery.
The bearish outlook is further supported by the alignment of the 50-day EMA as a dynamic resistance level, capping upward moves. Gold traders are focusing on the potential for a break below $2,631.72, which could trigger a sell-off toward the next significant target at $2,594. Conversely, a reversal above the pivot and sustained trading above $2,647.56 would be necessary to challenge the next resistance zones.
Related News
- USD/CAD Price Analysis – Nov 26, 2024
GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Sentiment: RSI at 36 indicates oversold conditions, yet recovery is limited.
- Critical Levels: Support at $2,605.31 and resistance at $2,647.56 dictate near-term direction.
- Trend Outlook: Below $2,632, the bearish trend is expected to extend toward $2,594.
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,623.21, down 0.09%, as it consolidates below the critical pivot point at $2,631.72. Technical indicators suggest that bearish momentum dominates, with immediate support at $2,605.31. A break below this level could expose gold to deeper supports at $2,582.37 and $2,561.16.
On the upside, resistance levels lie at $2,647.56, the 50-day EMA at $2,663.32, and further at $2,687.93. These levels present formidable challenges, especially as gold remains weighed down by a weaker Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading of 36, which reflects oversold conditions but insufficient buying pressure to trigger a recovery.
The bearish outlook is further supported by the alignment of the 50-day EMA as a dynamic resistance level, capping upward moves. Gold traders are focusing on the potential for a break below $2,631.72, which could trigger a sell-off toward the next significant target at $2,594. Conversely, a reversal above the pivot and sustained trading above $2,647.56 would be necessary to challenge the next resistance zones.
GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 2632
Take Profit – 2594
Stop Loss – 2653
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3800/ -$2100
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$380/ -$210
GOLD Price Analysis – Nov 25, 2024
Daily Price Outlook
Despite the weaker US dollar, gold prices (XAU/USD) failed to gain ground and remain under pressure around the 2,660 level. However, the reason for its downward trend could be associated with several factors.
First, the recent nomination of Scott Bessent as Treasury Secretary by US President-elect Donald Trump cleared uncertainty in the markets, boosting investor confidence and contributed to the declines in the safe-haven assets.
In addition, news of a potential ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah lifted market sentiment, driving funds away from safe-haven assets like gold. On top of that, the expectation that Trump’s policies could trigger inflation and limit the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates further pressured the precious metal.
US Dollar Decline and Strong Economic Data Weigh on Gold's Prospects
Despite positive US economic data, the US dollar has been trading lower on Friday. However, the downside risks for the dollar are limited as strong US economic indicators, like the preliminary S&P Global US Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI), have boosted expectations that the Federal Reserve might slow down its rate cuts.
As a result, traders are now pricing in a 50.9% chance of the Fed cutting rates by just a quarter point, a slight decrease from the 61.9% probability seen a week ago.
On the data front, the latest PMI data showed strong growth in the US economy. The US Composite PMI rose to 55.3 in November, marking the fastest private sector growth since April 2022.
In the meantime, the Services PMI surged to 57.0, far exceeding expectations and pointing to the strongest expansion in services since March 2022. Although the Manufacturing PMI slightly improved, it remained below 50, indicating continued contraction in the sector.
Meanwhile, Trump’s proposed policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes are keeping Treasury yields high. These policies could lead to higher inflation, making it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates. Fed officials, like Jerome Powell, say the economy is strong and rate cuts should be careful.
Therefore, the US dollar's decline and strong economic data limit gold's potential for gains as higher Treasury yields and inflation risks from Trump's policies reduce gold's attractiveness as a safe haven. As a result, gold faces downward pressure.
Geopolitical Easing and Economic Optimism Weaken Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal
On the geopolitical front, media reports suggest that Israel and Hezbollah are close to reaching a ceasefire deal, though it hasn't been finalized yet. This news has led to reduced tensions in the region, which generally lowers the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Moreover, the ongoing optimism surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's potential business-friendly policies is supporting a positive outlook for equity markets. As investors feel more confident about the economy, they tend to move away from gold, which is often sought during times of uncertainty.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold prices (XAU/USD) have dropped 1.78%, trading at $2,668.50, as risk-on sentiment pressures the safe-haven asset. Gold is testing immediate support near $2,653.49, with stronger levels at $2,634.96 and $2,619.00 if selling momentum persists. The pivot point at $2,673.85 is acting as a key threshold for short-term price direction.
The 50 EMA at $2,683.28 currently serves as dynamic resistance, aligning with a broader bearish trend. Immediate resistance is at $2,689.52, with further hurdles at $2,705.99 and $2,720.66 if gold attempts a rebound. However, the RSI at 34 signals oversold conditions, suggesting a potential pause in bearish momentum.
A sustained break below $2,653.49 could open the door to further declines toward $2,634.96. Conversely, failure to break support may trigger a short-term bounce, targeting the $2,689.52 pivot point or higher. Traders should watch these levels closely, with $2,674 being the entry point for a sell position, targeting $2,654 with a stop loss at $2,685.
Related News
- GBP/USD Price Analysis – Nov 25, 2024