Daily Outlook

In today's analysis of GOLD's daily technical outlook on March 1st, the market showcases a resilience, with GOLD trading at $2046.40, marking a modest uptick of 0.10% over the last 24 hours. This observation is based on a 4-hour chart timeframe, offering insights into short-term price movements. Critical price levels have been identified to guide traders: the pivotal point is positioned at $2043.00, acting as a focal point for market direction. Immediate resistance barriers are noted at $2050.64, $2057.94, and $2065.44, while crucial support thresholds stand at $2036.85, $2028.10, and $2016.76, delineating potential areas of price reversal or continuation.

Examining technical indicators provides further context. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 suggests a balanced momentum in the market, not excessively overbought or oversold. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2031.05 serves as a dynamic support level, reinforcing the bullish sentiment prevalent in the market.

Considering these factors collectively, the overall trend for GOLD appears bullish. Traders may find opportunities to enter long positions above the pivot point of $2043.00, anticipating further price appreciation. A prudent approach would involve setting a take-profit target at $2056 to capture potential gains, while simultaneously implementing a stop-loss order at $2035 to mitigate downside risk.

Gold - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2043

Take Profit – 2056

Stop Loss – 2035

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1300/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$130/ -$80

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bearish US dollar, the gold price (XAU/USD) failed to gain much traction and consolidated below the one-month top of $2,040. The sluggish movement in the gold price was being driven by the risk-on market sentiment, which tends to undermine the safe-haven gold price. In contrast to this, the US dollar is losing its traction following the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which opens the door for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed). This is negative for the dollar as it suggests potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and lends some support to the gold price.

Impact of Federal Reserve Policy and Inflation Data on Gold Price

On the US front, recent data shows that inflation in January was the lowest in three years, possibly leading to an eventual interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, influential Fed members suggest they'll wait until June before cutting rates, which supports higher Treasury bond yields and limits the downside for the US dollar and gold prices. On the data front, the Core US PCE Price Index, excluding food and energy, rose slightly in January, but the yearly rate eased to 2.4%. Market bets still indicate a chance of an interest rate cut in June, backed by comments from Fed officials like Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic and New York Fed President John Williams, though others emphasize the strength of the US economy and see no urgent need for rate cuts.

Therefore, the possibility of an eventual interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, along with lower inflation and supportive comments from some Fed officials, could be positive for the gold price.

Impact of Risk-On Market Sentiment on Gold Price amid Stock Market Surge

On the other hand, the risk-on market sentiment was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the gold price. It should be noted that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite surged to record highs in February as investors welcomed upbeat economic data and awaited further signs of easing inflation, bolstering confidence in the stock market. Therefore, the factors driving the S&P 500's surge, including upbeat economic data and easing inflation concerns, may reduce demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, potentially exerting downward pressure on its price.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In today's analysis of GOLD's daily technical outlook on March 1st, the market showcases a resilience, with GOLD trading at $2046.40, marking a modest uptick of 0.10% over the last 24 hours. This observation is based on a 4-hour chart timeframe, offering insights into short-term price movements. Critical price levels have been identified to guide traders: the pivotal point is positioned at $2043.00, acting as a focal point for market direction. Immediate resistance barriers are noted at $2050.64, $2057.94, and $2065.44, while crucial support thresholds stand at $2036.85, $2028.10, and $2016.76, delineating potential areas of price reversal or continuation.

Examining technical indicators provides further context. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 63 suggests a balanced momentum in the market, not excessively overbought or oversold. Additionally, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2031.05 serves as a dynamic support level, reinforcing the bullish sentiment prevalent in the market.

Considering these factors collectively, the overall trend for GOLD appears bullish. Traders may find opportunities to enter long positions above the pivot point of $2043.00, anticipating further price appreciation. A prudent approach would involve setting a take-profit target at $2056 to capture potential gains, while simultaneously implementing a stop-loss order at $2035 to mitigate downside risk.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the recent strength of the US dollar and the Fed’s higher-for-longer interest rates narrative, gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their upward trajectory and remained steady above the $2,035 level. This rise was attributed to prolonged tensions in the Middle East, which bolstered the appeal of safe-haven assets such as gold. In the meantime, cautious sentiment prevails in the market ahead of the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which could provide cues about the Federal Reserve's rate-hike path. This keeps investors cautious, leading them to invest in gold as a safe-haven asset.

In contrast to this, the Fed's hawkish outlook on interest rates was seen as a key factor that capped further gains in the gold price. Furthermore, the second estimate of US GDP growth for Q4 showed a 3.2% rise, slightly lower than the original 3.3%, but still signals economic strength. Hence, the positive US GDP growth indicates a hawkish stance from the Fed regarding rate cuts. As a result, the US dollar gained momentum and remained steady.

Investors are awaiting the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Meanwhile, the release of Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago PMI, and Pending Home Sales, which, along with Fed speak, will also be in the spotlight.

US Federal Reserve Outlook and GDP Data Impact on Monetary Policy and Market Dynamics

On the US front, Federal Reserve officials stressed the need to tackle inflation further, signaling that interest rates may stay higher for longer. New York Fed President John Williams suggested rate cuts might start in 2024, likely in the second half, as inflation hits its 2% target unevenly. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic expressed a preference for patience in policy adjustments, underscoring that the battle against inflation isn't won yet. Meanwhile, Boston Fed Bank President Susan Collins indicated a likelihood of rate cuts this year but stressed the importance of data assessment before any policy changes are made.

On the data front, the second estimate of US GDP growth released on Wednesday showed that the economy grew by 3.2% in the fourth quarter, just a bit lower than the initial report of 3.3%. This data suggests that the US economy is still doing well overall. However, it reinforced hawkish Fed expectations, which tend to strengthen the US dollar and lower gold prices.

Geopolitical Tensions in Gaza: Impact on Stock Market and Safe-Haven Assets

On the geopolitical front, Israeli airstrikes and shelling hit Nuseirat, Bureij, and Khan Younis camps in Gaza, resulting in at least 30 deaths. According to the Gaza Health Ministry and MSF, Save the Children, a charity organization for children, warns of a slow-motion mass killing of children in Gaza. Six children in north Gaza died from dehydration and malnutrition, with Gaza's healthcare system on the brink of collapse. Samantha Power of USAID stresses the urgent need for more aid to Gaza. Since October 7, Israeli attacks in Gaza have left nearly 30,000 people injured and over 70,000 displaced, while 1,139 have died in Israel.

Therefore, this news is likely to have a negative impact on risk sentiment in the stock market and may boost safe-haven assets like gold due to increased geopolitical tensions and uncertainty.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's price on February 29 edged higher by 0.07%, marking a subtle increase to $2035.805. This incremental rise reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment among investors, as gold continues to be a focal point in the financial markets amidst ongoing global economic uncertainties.

The pivot point for gold is established at $2025.07, providing a baseline for the day's trading dynamics. Resistance levels are identified at $2040.44, $2053.29, and $2065.71, outlining potential ceilings that gold prices might encounter should the upward momentum persist. Conversely, support levels are placed at $2016.41, $2001.46, and $1988.19, indicating key thresholds where buying interest could re-emerge, potentially stabilizing prices.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 suggests a balanced market condition, leaning slightly towards a bullish bias without entering overbought territory. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 2028.050 closely aligns with the current price, further reinforcing the gold market's current stability and slight bullish inclination.

Daily Price Outlook 

Gold's price on February 29 edged higher by 0.07%, marking a subtle increase to $2035.805. This incremental rise reflects a cautiously optimistic sentiment among investors, as gold continues to be a focal point in the financial markets amidst ongoing global economic uncertainties.

The pivot point for gold is established at $2025.07, providing a baseline for the day's trading dynamics. Resistance levels are identified at $2040.44, $2053.29, and $2065.71, outlining potential ceilings that gold prices might encounter should the upward momentum persist. Conversely, support levels are placed at $2016.41, $2001.46, and $1988.19, indicating key thresholds where buying interest could re-emerge, potentially stabilizing prices.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 55 suggests a balanced market condition, leaning slightly towards a bullish bias without entering overbought territory. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 2028.050 closely aligns with the current price, further reinforcing the gold market's current stability and slight bullish inclination.

Gold - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 2032

Take Profit – 2044

Stop Loss – 2022

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1200/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$120/ -$100

Daily Price Outlook 

Gold's trading session concludes with a marginal uptick, marking a 0.05% rise to settle at $2030.56, reflecting the market's oscillation within a tightly bound spectrum. This subtle movement underscores the investors' wait-and-see approach, particularly as they anticipate forthcoming economic data that could sway Federal Reserve policy decisions.

The pivot point for the day is pegged at $2028.69, delineating a fine line between bullish and bearish territories. Resistance levels are staged at $2041.30, $2053.29, and $2065.71, which could act as ceilings for any upward momentum. Conversely, support is found at $2016.41, with further cushions at $2001.46 and $1988.19, marking potential zones where buyers might emerge.

Technical indicators reveal a nuanced picture: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 51, indicating a neutral market sentiment, while the crossing below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2026.48 suggests potential bearish undertones. This development hints at a possible shift towards a selling trend if gold prices dip below the strategic level of $2029.

Given the technical landscape and prevailing market conditions, a cautious approach is recommended. Traders might consider a sell strategy below $2029, with an eye towards a take profit target at $2020 and a stop loss positioned at $2037, to navigate the anticipated fluctuations effectively.

Gold - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 2029

Take Profit – 2020

Stop Loss – 2037

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$900/ -$800

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$90/ -$80

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the recent strength of the US dollar, Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued to gain support and remained well bid around above the $2,030 level. However, this rise was attributed to long-lasting tensions in the Middle East, which bolstered the appeal of safe-haven assets such as gold. On the flip side, the US dollar gained momentum due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on interest rates. This could cap gains in the gold price. Besides this, the risk-on market sentiment, supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook, was seen as another key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the gold price.

Looking forward, Investors are awaiting the release of the Preliminary US GDP print as well as upcoming speeches by influential FOMC members, will play a key role in driving USD demand and creating meaningful trading opportunities around XAU/USD. Moreover, the US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index will be in the spotlight.

Powell's Rate Cut Signals and Economic Indicators Impacting Gold Prices

On the US front, the Federal Reserve's recent meeting minutes and comments from officials suggest they're not in a rush to cut interest rates. This decision tends to strengthen the US dollar but can lower gold prices. However, the decrease in US bond yields, the possibility of a government shutdown, and disappointing Durable Goods Orders could weaken the dollar's strength and helps the gold price to stay bid.

On the data front, US manufactured goods orders fell by 6.1% in January, the sharpest drop in nearly four years. The Consumer Sentiment Index also fell to 106.7 for February, despite lower inflation expectations. In the meantime, the Richmond Fed's Manufacturing Index improved to -5 in February from -15, marking the fourth consecutive month of negative readings.

Therefore, the Federal Reserve's decision not to rush interest rate cuts tends to strengthen the US dollar and lower gold prices. Other factors like lower bond yields and economic data can also impact gold prices.

Geopolitical Rumors and Economic Concerns Shape Gold Prices

On the geopolitical front, the ongoing talks between Israel and Hamas about ceasefire were uncertain, indicating ongoing tensions. However, the Iran-backed Houthi group continued targeting civilian ships in the Red Sea, posing a threat to maritime security. Meanwhile, Gaza faced a humanitarian crisis, with limited access for aid organizations, and one-quarter of its population going hungry.

President Biden urged Congress to support Israel's defense and sought to cut funds to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees (UNRWA). Israeli attacks on Gaza resulted in thousands of deaths and tens of thousands of injuries. Therefore, the geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, often lead to increased investor uncertainty and risk aversion, potentially boosting demand for safe-haven assets like gold, consequently impacting its price.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's trading session concludes with a marginal uptick, marking a 0.05% rise to settle at $2030.56, reflecting the market's oscillation within a tightly bound spectrum. This subtle movement underscores the investors' wait-and-see approach, particularly as they anticipate forthcoming economic data that could sway Federal Reserve policy decisions.

The pivot point for the day is pegged at $2028.69, delineating a fine line between bullish and bearish territories. Resistance levels are staged at $2041.30, $2053.29, and $2065.71, which could act as ceilings for any upward momentum. Conversely, support is found at $2016.41, with further cushions at $2001.46 and $1988.19, marking potential zones where buyers might emerge.

Technical indicators reveal a nuanced picture: the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 51, indicating a neutral market sentiment, while the crossing below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2026.48 suggests potential bearish undertones. This development hints at a possible shift towards a selling trend if gold prices dip below the strategic level of $2029.

Given the technical landscape and prevailing market conditions, a cautious approach is recommended. Traders might consider a sell strategy below $2029, with an eye towards a take profit target at $2020 and a stop loss positioned at $2037, to navigate the anticipated fluctuations effectively.

Daily Price Outlook 

Gold's technical outlook remains cautiously optimistic as the precious metal navigates through a delicate balance of market forces. As of February 27, gold is slightly up by 0.07%, trading at $2,032.61, reflecting a subtle uptick in investor sentiment amidst a backdrop of global economic uncertainties. The market's attention is fixed on the pivotal $2,028 pivot point, a level that gold has recently surpassed, suggesting a potential for further upward movement if sustained.

The immediate resistance levels are set at $2,051 and extend up to $2,093, marking significant barriers that gold would need to overcome to continue its ascent. On the downside, support levels are clearly defined at $2,011, $1,986, and $1,969, which serve as cushions should there be a reversal in the current trend. These levels are crucial for traders to monitor, as they could indicate potential entry or exit points based on the market's reaction.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, which aligns with the market's current state of equilibrium. The MACD, however, presents a mixed signal with a value of -0.09 against a signal of 2.99, suggesting that while there's potential for upward momentum, caution is warranted. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,032 acts as a testament to gold's resilience, hovering around the current trading price and offering a baseline for bullish sentiments.

Gold - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 2030

Take Profit – 2040

Stop Loss – 2023

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1000/ -$700

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$100/ -$70

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its upward trend and remained well bid around the $2,035 level. However, the upward trend in gold prices were mainly driven by the sliding US Treasury bond yields and the bearish performance of the US dollar. Furthermore, the long-lasting geopolitical tensions in the Middle East along with a recession in Japan and the UK were seen as another key factor that gave support to the safe-haven gold. On the flip side, the losses in the US dollar could be short-lived amid the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook for higher-for-longer interest rates. This could cap gains in the gold price.

Fed's Influence on US Dollar and Gold Prices

Despite the Federal Reserve's (Fed) hawkish outlook for higher-for-longer interest rates, the broad-based US dollar failed to maintain its upward trend and turned bearish, possibly due to the recent drop in US Treasury bond yields. However, the losses in the US dollar could be temporary as the latest meeting minutes and statements from Federal Reserve officials indicate they're not rushing to lower interest rates. Meanwhile, Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid said we should wait until we're sure inflation is under control. Most people think there won't be a rate cut in March, but there's a 60% chance there will be one in June. Hence, the current downward momentum in the US dollar is pushing gold prices higher.

Looking ahead, traders are careful about making big decisions before the release of the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index on Thursday. They want to see when the Fed might raise interest rates. This caution could make it harder for gold prices to go up.

Geopolitical Tensions and Economic Uncertainties Drive Demand for Safe-Haven Gold

Apart from this, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East are also boosting the appeal of the safe-haven precious metal. As per the latest report, Israeli attacks on Gaza since October 7 killed 29,782 and wounded 70,043. The revised death toll in Israel from the same attacks is 1,139. At the same time, the negotiations for a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas in Gaza are happening again because many countries are urging them to stop the fighting in Gaza. Whereas, Biden aims to end the conflict and secure the release of hostages by March 10, before Ramadan starts. These developments heighten geopolitical uncertainties, which push investors towards safe-haven assets like gold.

On the other hand, the recession in Japan and the UK continues to boost the appeal of the safe-haven precious metal. Japan's GDP fell unexpectedly, following a previous quarter's 3.3% contraction. The UK's decline comes before an election. Japan lost its third-largest economy status to Germany. The IMF expects Germany to surpass Japan. Economists anticipated Japan's GDP growth, but it may be revised.

Therefore, the recessions in Japan and the UK, along with Japan's unexpected GDP fall and loss of economic status to Germany, bolster the appeal of safe-haven gold amid economic uncertainties.

GOLD - Technical Analysis

Gold's technical outlook remains cautiously optimistic as the precious metal navigates through a delicate balance of market forces. As of February 27, gold is slightly up by 0.07%, trading at $2,032.61, reflecting a subtle uptick in investor sentiment amidst a backdrop of global economic uncertainties. The market's attention is fixed on the pivotal $2,028 pivot point, a level that gold has recently surpassed, suggesting a potential for further upward movement if sustained.

The immediate resistance levels are set at $2,051 and extend up to $2,093, marking significant barriers that gold would need to overcome to continue its ascent. On the downside, support levels are clearly defined at $2,011, $1,986, and $1,969, which serve as cushions should there be a reversal in the current trend. These levels are crucial for traders to monitor, as they could indicate potential entry or exit points based on the market's reaction.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating neither overbought nor oversold conditions, which aligns with the market's current state of equilibrium. The MACD, however, presents a mixed signal with a value of -0.09 against a signal of 2.99, suggesting that while there's potential for upward momentum, caution is warranted. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,032 acts as a testament to gold's resilience, hovering around the current trading price and offering a baseline for bullish sentiments.

Daily Price Outlook 

Gold's market behavior on February 26 showcases a minor decrease, with the price settling at $2032.83, reflecting a modest retreat of 0.13%. This movement is captured within a four-hour trading window, highlighting a pivotal moment at a pivot point of $2027.13. This point serves as a critical juncture for traders, marking the threshold between potential gains and losses.

In this trading environment, resistance levels are staged at $2041.30, $2053.29, and $2065.71, each representing barriers to upward momentum. Conversely, supports are found at $2015.06, $2001.46, and $1988.19, suggesting foundational levels that could arrest declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57 signals a market in equilibrium, neither overbought nor oversold, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2022.65 indicates a supportive trend for buyers.

Given these dynamics, the outlook for gold appears cautiously optimistic, proposing a strategic entry for buyers at a buy limit of $2027. This approach is fortified by a proposed take-profit target at $2040 and a stop loss at $2017, crafting a calculated framework for engagement with gold's immediate future in the market. This trading strategy, delineated by key technical indicators and price levels, underscores a nuanced understanding of gold's current position and its potential trajectory, balancing risk with opportunity.

Gold - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 2027

Take Profit – 2040

Stop Loss – 2017

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1300/ -$1000

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$130/ -$100

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the continued geopolitical tensions, the Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its bearish bias and remained well below 2,030 level. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to hawkish Fed expectations. These expectations were reinforced after the number of Fed officials indicated that they're not likely to cut interest rates right away as they're focused on getting inflation back to the 2% target. This hawkish stance tends to undermine gold prices. On the positive side, the escalation of military action in the Middle East and the prolonged Russia-Ukraine war was seen as a key factor that helped gold price to limit its deeper losses.

US Dollar Declines Amidst Fed's Firm Stance: Impact on Gold Prices

Despite positive US economic indicators and a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve, the US dollar experienced mild declines at the start of new week. This decline, combined with rising demand for traditional safe-haven assets, helps gold price to limit its losses. However, expectations that the Federal Reserve will delay interest rate cuts until the June policy meeting have limited losses in the US dollar, which ultimately is not good for gold.

It should be noted that the January FOMC meeting minutes showed that policymakers want more confidence in declining inflation before considering rate cuts. In the meantime, several Fed officials have suggested that immediate rate cuts are unlikely as the central bank aims to return inflation to the 2% target. Consequently, reduced expectations of an early interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve due to US inflation data have weighed on gold prices.

Geopolitical Tensions Heighten: Impact on Safe-Haven Assets like XAU/USD

On the positive side the losses in the gold price could be temporary as the ongoing geopolitical tensions in both the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict could potentially lend support to the safe-haven XAU/USD. Israel's announcement of its intention to expand operations against Hamas amidst uncertainty surrounding a ceasefire, coupled with reports of Russia preparing for a new offensive against Ukraine, further exacerbates geopolitical anxieties.

Furthermore, recent military actions by the US and UK against Houthi sites in Yemen, in response to ongoing attacks on commercial vessels by Iran-backed Houthi rebels, add to the current geopolitical instability. Hence, these actions contribute to geopolitical instability, which often increases demand for safe-haven assets like gold, potentially leading to higher prices.

GOLD - Technical Analysis

Gold's market behaviour on February 26 showcases a minor decrease, with the price settling at $2032.83, reflecting a modest retreat of 0.13%. This movement is captured within a four-hour trading window, highlighting a pivotal moment at a pivot point of $2027.13. This point serves as a critical juncture for traders, marking the threshold between potential gains and losses.

In this trading environment, resistance levels are staged at $2041.30, $2053.29, and $2065.71, each representing barriers to upward momentum. Conversely, supports are found at $2015.06, $2001.46, and $1988.19, suggesting foundational levels that could arrest declines. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 57 signals a market in equilibrium, neither overbought nor oversold, while the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2022.65 indicates a supportive trend for buyers.

Given these dynamics, the outlook for gold appears cautiously optimistic, proposing a strategic entry for buyers at a buy limit of $2027. This approach is fortified by a proposed take-profit target at $2040 and a stop loss at $2017, crafting a calculated framework for engagement with gold's immediate future in the market. This trading strategy, delineated by key technical indicators and price levels, underscores a nuanced understanding of gold's current position and its potential trajectory, balancing risk with opportunity.