Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 27, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Oct 27, 2023
Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) has maintained its bullish bias and has been going up for three days. It's now getting close to its multi-month high level. However, this upward movement is mainly because people see gold as a safe place to put their money, especially during times when conflict risks in the Middle East are rising. Investors tend to turn to gold when things are uncertain. Furthermore, the stable value of the US Dollar, which hasn't been fluctuating much, is also boosting the demand for gold.

Nevertheless, the price of gold has not yet reached the levels it attained five months ago. This is largely due to the belief that the Federal Reserve will maintain a cautious approach to interest rates, thereby keeping them higher for an extended duration. When interest rates are high, gold becomes a less enticing investment option.

Global Tensions and Fed's Stance Impacting Gold Prices

It's important to mention that the ongoing global tensions are still supporting the demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Recent events, such as the brief entry of Israeli troops and tanks into Gaza, and talks about a possible larger-scale invasion, have heightened market and investor concerns. As a result, the price of gold has been on the rise.

Moreover, the US military carried out airstrikes in Syria as a response to attacks on American troops in that area. President Joe Biden directly warned Iran's leader about the consequences of targeting US military bases and personnel in the Middle East. All of these events together are playing a part in the ups and downs we're seeing in the price of gold.

US Economic Growth Strong, But Fed's Next Move Uncertain

Recent data shows that the US economy had a strong third quarter, with a 4.9% expansion. This is the fastest growth in almost two years. With this robust performance, it suggests that the Federal Reserve can stick to its strict policies and might even think about raising interest rates again before the year ends.

However, the latest data indicating lower-than-expected inflation has sparked speculation that the Federal Reserve could opt to keep its current approach intact come November. Consequently, investors are on the edge, eagerly anticipating the release of the US PCE Price Index data to better understand the Federal Reserve's possible moves before making substantial investment choices.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Amidst the volatile global economic landscape, gold has consistently stood as a beacon for investors, offering a sanctuary during unpredictable times. On October 27, gold was traded at $1989.045, marking a rise of 0.21% within the last 24 hours. This data, sourced from a 4-hour chart, offers a granular look at the precious metal's intraday movements. The pivot point for the day stood at $1986, with immediate resistances marked at $1998, $2012, and $2023. On the flip side, support levels were established at $1963, $1947, and $1932.

The technical indicators paint an interesting picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) positioned itself at 62, indicating a bullish sentiment. While not in the overbought territory, it's noteworthy that the RSI is above the midpoint of 50, suggesting potential for further upside. Additionally, gold's price trajectory over its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) further cements its short-term bullish stance, given that the metal is trading above the 50 EMA benchmark of $1960.

Chart analysis reveals an upward channel, highlighting a series of higher highs and lows. This pattern underscores a bullish bias, suggesting that if the current trend persists, gold might touch the upper echelons of the channel in the near future. In conclusion, the overall sentiment for gold appears bullish, especially given its position above the critical 50 EMA and the observed upward channel.

However, a dip below $1812 might tilt the scales to a bearish outlook. In the upcoming sessions, it's plausible that gold could challenge the resistance level at $1998. As global events and economic indicators continuously shift, investors should remain vigilant and abreast of updates that might impact gold's trajectory.

Related News

    GOLD

    Daily Trade Ideas

    GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

    By LHFX Technical Analysis
    Oct 27, 2023
    Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

    Daily Price Outlook

      Amidst the volatile global economic landscape, gold has consistently stood as a beacon for investors, offering a sanctuary during unpredictable times. On October 27, gold was traded at $1989.045, marking a rise of 0.21% within the last 24 hours. This data, sourced from a 4-hour chart, offers a granular look at the precious metal's intraday movements. The pivot point for the day stood at $1986, with immediate resistances marked at $1998, $2012, and $2023. On the flip side, support levels were established at $1963, $1947, and $1932.

      The technical indicators paint an interesting picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) positioned itself at 62, indicating a bullish sentiment. While not in the overbought territory, it's noteworthy that the RSI is above the midpoint of 50, suggesting potential for further upside. Additionally, gold's price trajectory over its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) further cements its short-term bullish stance, given that the metal is trading above the 50 EMA benchmark of $1960.

      Chart analysis reveals an upward channel, highlighting a series of higher highs and lows. This pattern underscores a bullish bias, suggesting that if the current trend persists, gold might touch the upper echelons of the channel in the near future. In conclusion, the overall sentiment for gold appears bullish, especially given its position above the critical 50 EMA and the observed upward channel.

      However, a dip below $1812 might tilt the scales to a bearish outlook. In the upcoming sessions, it's plausible that gold could challenge the resistance level at $1998. As global events and economic indicators continuously shift, investors should remain vigilant and abreast of updates that might impact gold's trajectory.

      GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
      GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

      Entry Price – Buy Limit 1985

      Take Profit – 2019

      Stop Loss – 1967

      Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8

      Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3400/ -$1800

      Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$340/ -$180

      GOLD

      Technical Analysis

      GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 26, 2023

      By LHFX Technical Analysis
      Oct 26, 2023
      Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

      Daily Price Outlook

      The price of gold (XAU/USD) has maintained its upward trajectory, rising for the second consecutive day during the first half of the European trading session. This precious metal, regarded as a safe-haven asset, has surged to its highest level since May 16, a level reached last Friday. However, the reason for its upward rally can be linked to the concerns about a escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Conversely, the increase in US Treasury bond yields, fueled by expectations of a more assertive stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), has pushed the US Dollar to a three-week peak. This was seen as one of the key factors that has exerted downward pressure on gold and limited its gains.

      Moreover, investors are anticipating key economic reports from the United States. These reports will provide insights into the Federal Reserve's future decisions regarding interest rates, and they will play a significant role in determining the near-future trajectory of the gold price. On Thursday, the US is set to release crucial data, including Q3 GDP figures, Durable Goods Orders, the usual weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales statistics.

      These reports, coupled with an anticipated speech by Fed Governor Christopher Waller and developments in US bond yields, have the potential to impact the value of the US Dollar. Traders will be closely monitoring these factors to identify short-term trading opportunities with XAU/USD.

      Gold Prices Supported by Geopolitical Concerns Amid Escalation in Israel-Hamas Conflict

      Despite the increase in US Treasury bond yields and the strengthening of the US Dollar (USD), gold prices continue to find support due to ongoing geopolitical concerns. Israel has escalated its military operations in Gaza, and the potential for a ground invasion increases the risk of a broader conflict in the Middle East. Various international powers are actively engaged in diplomatic efforts to de-escalate the ongoing conflict between Israel and the Palestinian militant group, Hamas. Consequently, the safe-haven gold has approached its most elevated level since May 16, which was reached last Friday.

      GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
      GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

      GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

      As the world watches the tumultuous dance of numbers on the stock exchange, Gold's resolute march demands attention. Recently trading at a commendable price of $1988.770, marking an increase of 0.45% in the last 24 hours, the precious metal reveals a story that's as old as commerce itself, yet as current as the 4H chart it's mapped on.

      The pivot point, often the traders' North Star, stands steady for Gold at $1986. Resistance levels, the metaphorical ceilings to Gold's ascension, have been meticulously mapped out. The immediate barrier stands at $1998, but should Gold's rally remain unbridled, the subsequent resistances to watch are $2012 and then $2023. Conversely, if the winds turn south, the immediate cushioning for Gold is at $1963, followed by defenses at $1947 and $1932.

      The Relative Strength Index (RSI) provides a snapshot of the momentum, with its current value at 67. This suggests a bullish sentiment since the RSI is above 50 but is nearing the overbought threshold of 70. Traders should tread with caution as values nearing 70 often indicate a potential pullback.

      Gold's overall trend seems bullish, especially when it sustains above the $1986 mark. Any downward movement below this might hint at a bearish reversal. In the immediate future, given the current trajectory and market sentiments, it wouldn't be surprising to see Gold testing the resistance at $1998, and possibly beyond.

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        Daily Trade Ideas

        GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

        By LHFX Technical Analysis
        Oct 26, 2023
        Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

        Daily Price Outlook

          As the world watches the tumultuous dance of numbers on the stock exchange, Gold's resolute march demands attention. Recently trading at a commendable price of $1988.770, marking an increase of 0.45% in the last 24 hours, the precious metal reveals a story that's as old as commerce itself, yet as current as the 4H chart it's mapped on.

          The pivot point, often the traders' North Star, stands steady for Gold at $1986. Resistance levels, the metaphorical ceilings to Gold's ascension, have been meticulously mapped out. The immediate barrier stands at $1998, but should Gold's rally remain unbridled, the subsequent resistances to watch are $2012 and then $2023. Conversely, if the winds turn south, the immediate cushioning for Gold is at $1963, followed by defenses at $1947 and $1932.

          The Relative Strength Index (RSI) provides a snapshot of the momentum, with its current value at 67. This suggests a bullish sentiment since the RSI is above 50 but is nearing the overbought threshold of 70. Traders should tread with caution as values nearing 70 often indicate a potential pullback.

          The MACD, an indicator synonymous with trend and momentum, presents a value of -0.379 against a signal value of 7.118. This divergence, where the MACD line is below the signal line, hints at potential downward momentum. But, the story doesn't end here.

          Gold's price currently trades well above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which stands at $1954. This is a bullish sign, indicating that the buying sentiment has been dominant in the short term. The price trajectory above this EMA underscores the ongoing positive momentum for Gold.

          Conclusion:

          Gold's overall trend seems bullish, especially when it sustains above the $1986 mark. Any downward movement below this might hint at a bearish reversal. In the immediate future, given the current trajectory and market sentiments, it wouldn't be surprising to see Gold testing the resistance at $1998, and possibly beyond.

          GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
          GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

          GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

          Entry Price – Buy Stop 1990

          Take Profit – 2018

          Stop Loss – 1968

          Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

          Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2800/ -$2200

          Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$280/ -$220

          GOLD

          Daily Trade Ideas

          GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

          By LHFX Technical Analysis
          Oct 25, 2023
          Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

          Daily Price Outlook

            On October 25, gold exhibited a minor upward movement, registering a modest increase of 0.01%, with its price settling at $1972.25. Analyzing its price trajectory on a 4-hour chart provides a clearer picture of its potential path forward. Gold's pivot point stands firmly at $1962, a level that traders are closely monitoring.

            Gold faces formidable resistance levels, starting at $2016, progressing to $2051, and further stretching to a significant $2105. Conversely, should the asset face selling pressures, immediate support is found at $1927, followed by deeper support levels at $1873 and $1837.

            Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is at 56, suggesting a slightly bullish momentum, as it's above the neutral 50 mark but still under the typically overbought threshold of 70. The MACD, however, paints a different picture. With a value of -2.67 and a signal line at 6.64, the MACD line's position below the signal line indicates possible bearish momentum in the near term. Interestingly, gold's current price surpasses its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) which stands at $1948, reinforcing the short-term bullish trend.

            While the chart patterns need further clarity, the overall sentiment surrounding gold appears bullish, especially if it maintains its position above the pivotal $1962 mark.

            Conclusion:

            In the broader scheme, gold's trajectory appears bullish, provided it remains above the $1962 benchmark. Market participants are eagerly anticipating potential tests of the resistance levels, particularly eyeing the $2016 mark in the short term.

            GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
            GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

            GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

            Entry Price – Buy Limit 1965

            Take Profit – 1996

            Stop Loss – 1947

            Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

            Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3100/ -$1800

            Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$310/ -$180

            GOLD

            Technical Analysis

            GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 25, 2023

            By LHFX Technical Analysis
            Oct 25, 2023
            Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

            Daily Price Outlook

            During the Asian session on Wednesday, the gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained their upward trajectory, continuing to gain positive momentum. However, this upward trend can be attributed to the decline in US Treasury bond yields, which is putting pressure on the US dollar and providing some support to gold price. Meanwhile, the growing concerns about a potential economic recession and geopolitical risks are further bolstering the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

            Multiple Factors Driving Increased Investment in Gold

            It's worth noting that several factors are driving people to invest in gold. One key factor is the concern of a potential economic downturn, which was exacerbated by disappointing economic data from Europe. Furthermore, concerns regarding conflicts in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Hamas situation, are increasing the appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset.

            Moreover, the decline in US Treasury bond yields is exerting downward pressure on the US dollar and bolstering gold prices. It shoud be noted that the 10-year US Treasury yield had recently surpassed 5%, a level not witnessed since 2007, but has subsequently retreated from that point. Hence, These factors are contributing to the upward performance of gold (XAU/USD).

            Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Impact and US Economic Resilience on Gold Price Outlook

            Furthermore, the gold prices has been influenced by the potential for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. This is making investors cautious and limiting the upward potential for Gold. On a positive note, the US manufacturing sector recently rebounded after a five-month decline, and service-related businesses are also showing modest growth. This indicates that the US economy remains relatively robust.

            Therefore, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current policies in place in November. However, there is a chance that they might opt for a 25 basis point interest rate increase before the year's end, a development closely monitored by investors. This type of policy tightening could affect the prices of various assets, including Gold.

            Key Events Ahead

            Looking forward, investors are awaiting Jerome Powell's statements at the Federal Reserve, as they could provide insights into potential interest rate changes. Plus, investors are also closely monitoring the upcoming US third-quarter economic report and the European Central Bank's decision on interest rates.

            GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
            GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

            GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

            On October 25, gold exhibited a minor upward movement, registering a modest increase of 0.01%, with its price settling at $1972.25. Analyzing its price trajectory on a 4-hour chart provides a clearer picture of its potential path forward. Gold's pivot point stands firmly at $1962, a level that traders are closely monitoring.

            Gold faces formidable resistance levels, starting at $2016, progressing to $2051, and further stretching to a significant $2105. Conversely, should the asset face selling pressures, immediate support is found at $1927, followed by deeper support levels at $1873 and $1837.

            Technically, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is at 56, suggesting a slightly bullish momentum, as it's above the neutral 50 mark but still under the typically overbought threshold of 70. The MACD, however, paints a different picture. With a value of -2.67 and a signal line at 6.64, the MACD line's position below the signal line indicates possible bearish momentum in the near term. Interestingly, gold's current price surpasses its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) which stands at $1948, reinforcing the short-term bullish trend.

            While the chart patterns need further clarity, the overall sentiment surrounding gold appears bullish, especially if it maintains its position above the pivotal $1962 mark.

            Conclusion:

            In the broader scheme, gold's trajectory appears bullish, provided it remains above the $1962 benchmark. Market participants are eagerly anticipating potential tests of the resistance levels, particularly eyeing the $2016 mark in the short term.

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              GOLD

              Daily Trade Ideas

              GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

              By LHFX Technical Analysis
              Oct 24, 2023
              Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

              Daily Price Outlook

                As of October 24, Gold's market landscape presents a complex array of signals for the discerning analyst. Priced at 1976.10, the precious metal has seen an incremental rise of 0.14% over the past 24 hours. The 4H chart, a timeframe favored by many traders for its balance between short-term responsiveness and noise filtering, provides several key insights.

                Central to our analysis is the Pivot Point, a crucial price level to observe, currently at $1963.12. From this juncture, Gold encounters a layered resistance structure: Immediate resistance is at $2016.85, followed by $2051.94 and then $2104.57. Conversely, in the face of bearish tendencies, immediate support is pinpointed at $1926.93, with further levels at $1873.20 and $1838.12.

                The technical indicators offer a deeper comprehension. The RSI, a momentum oscillator, currently stands at 62. Traditionally, values above 70 are deemed overbought, and those below 30, oversold. With the RSI surpassing the 50-mark, this suggests a bullish sentiment in the market.

                Our MACD values, a further momentum metric, are compelling. The MACD is at -2.79 while the Signal sits at 11.57. Typically, an MACD line above the signal line indicates upward momentum, and the opposite holds true for a potential downward shift. In this instance, the MACD line being beneath the signal line hints at a potential downward trajectory.

                The 50 EMA, a favored metric for short-term trends, is currently at 1940.29. With Gold's price exceeding this mark, it suggests a short-term bullish trend.

                Regarding chart patterns, the current 4H chart doesn't display dominant patterns like the Symmetrical Triangle or an upward channel. However, patterns can form and fade swiftly, necessitating vigilant observation.

                GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
                GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

                GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

                Entry Price – Buy Limit 1965

                Take Profit – 1996

                Stop Loss – 1947

                Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

                Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$3100/ -$1800

                Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$310/ -$180

                GOLD

                Technical Analysis

                GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 24, 2023

                By LHFX Technical Analysis
                Oct 24, 2023
                Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

                Daily Price Outlook

                Gold (XAU/USD) has managed to gain momentum, rising to around $1,980 on Tuesday. This surge is largely attributed to the weakening of the US Dollar (USD), driven by lower US Treasury yields. Furthermore, the ongoing tensions in the Middle East have played a significant role in supporting the gold price. Although, the recent efforts by diplomats to ease tensions between Israel and Hamas have increased investors' willingness to take risks, potentially causing a temporary drop in gold prices.

                US Dollar Weakens and Interest Rates Uncertain

                It's worth noting that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a four-day consecutive decline, hovering around 105.50. However, this drop can be tied to the 10-year Treasury yield, which initially surged to 5.02% but later retreated to 4.84%. If this downward trend persists, the US Dollar may continue to weaken, potentially promoting a rise in Gold prices up to $2,000.

                Several key figures within the Federal Reserve, such as Raphael Bostic, Patrick Harker, and Loretta Mester, have expressed doubts about reducing interest rates in the near future. They prefer to maintain the current rates. Furthermore, the market doesn't anticipate an interest rate hike in November, but the likelihood of one occurring in January 2024 remains quite significant, standing at over 30%.

                China's Debt Plans, US-China Talks, and Data-Filled Week

                Furthermore, the news of China's intention to issue a bit over 1 trillion yuan in additional government debt has fostered a more positive sentiment among investors. Additionally, the progress in the initial economic discussions between the US and China has boosted the overall market outlook. Consequently, the US Dollar, typically a safe haven for investors, is not in as high demand, leading to an increase in the price of Gold.

                Looking forward, investors will have a busy week ahead with a lot of data to watch. On Tuesday, their attention will be focused on the US S&P Global PMI. Then, on Thursday, all eyes will be on the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) figures. Finally, the week concludes with a spotlight on the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) on Friday.

                GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
                GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

                GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

                As of October 24, Gold's market landscape presents a complex array of signals for the discerning analyst. Priced at 1976.10, the precious metal has seen an incremental rise of 0.14% over the past 24 hours. The 4H chart, a timeframe favored by many traders for its balance between short-term responsiveness and noise filtering, provides several key insights.

                Central to our analysis is the Pivot Point, a crucial price level to observe, currently at $1963.12. From this juncture, Gold encounters a layered resistance structure: Immediate resistance is at $2016.85, followed by $2051.94 and then $2104.57. Conversely, in the face of bearish tendencies, immediate support is pinpointed at $1926.93, with further levels at $1873.20 and $1838.12.

                The technical indicators offer a deeper comprehension. The RSI, a momentum oscillator, currently stands at 62. Traditionally, values above 70 are deemed overbought, and those below 30, oversold. With the RSI surpassing the 50-mark, this suggests a bullish sentiment in the market.

                Our MACD values, a further momentum metric, are compelling. The MACD is at -2.79 while the Signal sits at 11.57. Typically, an MACD line above the signal line indicates upward momentum, and the opposite holds true for a potential downward shift. In this instance, the MACD line being beneath the signal line hints at a potential downward trajectory.

                The 50 EMA, a favored metric for short-term trends, is currently at 1940.29. With Gold's price exceeding this mark, it suggests a short-term bullish trend.

                Regarding chart patterns, the current 4H chart doesn't display dominant patterns like the Symmetrical Triangle or an upward channel. However, patterns can form and fade swiftly, necessitating vigilant observation.

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                  GOLD

                  Daily Trade Ideas

                  GOLD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

                  By LHFX Technical Analysis
                  Oct 23, 2023
                  Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

                  Daily Price Outlook

                    As markets transition into the final week of October, gold's pricing dynamics reveal intriguing patterns worth decoding for potential investors. At the outset, the precious metal's current trading price stands at $1973.69, reflecting a modest decline of 0.34%. Based on a 4-hour chart analysis, several key levels and technical indicators present themselves, offering hints about gold's prospective trajectory.

                    The pivot point for gold, a key technical tool used by traders to gauge potential price movements, is currently pegged at $1954. Climbing the ladder, gold faces its first resistance level at $1982.. Should bullish sentiments prevail, the subsequent resistances are identified at $2001 and $2020. Conversely, in a more bearish scenario, immediate support is positioned at $1929, followed by the next support tiers at $1909 and $1885.

                    Shifting the lens to technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 65. Traditionally, an RSI reading above 70 is indicative of overbought conditions, suggesting that the asset might be poised for a potential pullback. Gold's current RSI, although below this threshold, is edging closer to the overbought territory, hinting at a strong bullish sentiment but also cautioning traders of possible future corrections.

                    Further insights are provided by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. With an MACD value of -1.662 and a signal value of 15.582, the MACD line's position below the signal line flags potential bearish momentum in the short term. This divergence warrants attention as it can often presage directional shifts in price.

                    Lastly, gold's price vis-à-vis the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) paints a bullish picture. With the 50 EMA valued at $1929.67, and gold trading substantially above this mark, the prevailing trend leans bullish in the short term. Historically, prices above the 50 EMA often suggest sustained upward momentum, making it a positive sign for gold bulls.

                    GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
                    GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

                    GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Idea

                    Entry Price – Buy Limit 1969

                    Take Profit – 1990

                    Stop Loss – 1951

                    Risk to Reward – 1: 1.17

                    Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$2100/ -$1800

                    Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$210/ -$180

                    GOLD

                    Technical Analysis

                    GOLD Price Analysis – Oct 23, 2023

                    By LHFX Technical Analysis
                    Oct 23, 2023
                    Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

                    Daily Price Outlook

                    Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions between Israel and Hamas, which typically lead to increased demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, the price of gold (XAU/USD) ended its winning streak and is currently trading lower at around $1,970 per troy ounce during the Asian session on Monday. However, this decline can be attributed to a rebound in the US Dollar, which is receiving support from improved US Treasury yields.

                    US Dollar Gains and Fed's Cautious Stance

                    It's worth noting that the US Dollar Index (DXY) has experienced a resurgence, currently trading at around 106.30. This comeback can be attributed to the positive movement in US Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year yield, which currently stands at 4.98%, reflecting a 1.30% increase at the moment. The US Dollar is also receiving a boost from some robust US economic data released last week. The latest job data indicates a strong economy, with the lowest Weekly Initial Jobless Claims since January, signifying a robust job market.

                    In contrast to this, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic recently stated that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to lower interest rates until at least the middle of next year. Furthermore, Patrick Harker, the President of the Philadelphia Fed, has consistently supported for maintaining interest rates at their current levels without any adjustments.

                    On the Cleveland Fed front, Loretta Mester noted that the Fed might have completed its rate hikes or is, at the very least, approaching the peak in this rate hike cycle. However, Mester also admitted that the data unveiled last week might have an effect on the central bank's future decisions about monetary policy.

                    In a recent statement, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made it clear that the central bank doesn't have any immediate intentions to increase interest rates. However, he openly acknowledged that they might think about tightening monetary policy even more if they spot more signs of economic growth.

                    Hence, the dovish comments from Fed officials, such as Loretta Mester and Jerome Powell's emphasis on avoiding immediate rate hikes, were considered one of the key factors that could potentially limit further gains in the US dollar.

                    Geopolitical Tensions and Market Outlook

                    Elsewhere, escalating tensions in the Middle East could potentially drive up the prices of safe-haven assets, such as gold. It's worth noting that concerns regarding the Israel-Hamas conflict escalating into a broader Middle East conflict have increased, prompting warnings from Washington about significant risks to US interests in the region. Therefore, this uncertainty may lead investors to seek the safety of gold as a hedge against geopolitical instability.

                    Looking forward, investors will closely watch the US S&P Global PMI on Tuesday and the Q3 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday. These important indicators could greatly influence market sentiment and offer valuable insights into the overall US economy.

                    GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
                    GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

                    GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

                    As markets transition into the final week of October, gold's pricing dynamics reveal intriguing patterns worth decoding for potential investors. At the outset, the precious metal's current trading price stands at $1973.69, reflecting a modest decline of 0.34%. Based on a 4-hour chart analysis, several key levels and technical indicators present themselves, offering hints about gold's prospective trajectory.

                    The pivot point for gold, a key technical tool used by traders to gauge potential price movements, is currently pegged at $1954. Climbing the ladder, gold faces its first resistance level at $1982.. Should bullish sentiments prevail, the subsequent resistances are identified at $2001 and $2020. Conversely, in a more bearish scenario, immediate support is positioned at $1929, followed by the next support tiers at $1909 and $1885.

                    Shifting the lens to technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 65. Traditionally, an RSI reading above 70 is indicative of overbought conditions, suggesting that the asset might be poised for a potential pullback. Gold's current RSI, although below this threshold, is edging closer to the overbought territory, hinting at a strong bullish sentiment but also cautioning traders of possible future corrections.

                    Further insights are provided by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator. With an MACD value of -1.662 and a signal value of 15.582, the MACD line's position below the signal line flags potential bearish momentum in the short term. This divergence warrants attention as it can often presage directional shifts in price.

                    Lastly, gold's price vis-à-vis the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) paints a bullish picture. With the 50 EMA valued at $1929.67, and gold trading substantially above this mark, the prevailing trend leans bullish in the short term. Historically, prices above the 50 EMA often suggest sustained upward momentum, making it a positive sign for gold bulls.

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