USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish Momentum: USD/JPY remains bearish below 151.024, targeting 149.621 and 148.650.
- Dynamic Resistance: 50-day EMA at 152.34 reinforces selling pressure.
- Breakout Potential: A reversal above 151.024 could trigger bullish momentum.
USD/JPY is trading at 150.382, down by 0.02%, reflecting a cautious bearish sentiment. The pair is currently trading below the pivotal level of 151.024, signaling potential downward pressure. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 152.34 is acting as dynamic resistance, reinforcing the bearish outlook.
Immediate resistance is located at 152.329, followed by 153.242 and 154.684. A breakout above 152.329 would invalidate the bearish scenario, paving the way for a bullish reversal towards higher resistance levels.
On the downside, initial support lies at 149.621, with further safety nets at 148.650 and 147.760. A break below 149.621 would confirm bearish momentum, potentially accelerating selling pressure towards the lower support zones. The current price action suggests a consolidation phase, with traders awaiting a decisive breakout for directional clarity.
From a technical perspective, the bearish case is supported by the descending trendline and the 50-day EMA acting as a resistance barrier. However, a reversal above 151.024 would shift the momentum to bullish, invalidating the short-term bearish outlook.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 151.025
Take Profit – 149.300
Stop Loss – 152.360
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1147/ -$887
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$114/ -$88
USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY remains bearish below 154.20, with 153.74 as immediate support.
- 50-day EMA at 153.35 is a critical level; a break below could accelerate selling pressure.
- Resistance at 154.80 must be cleared for a bullish reversal, but downside risks remain dominant.
The USD/JPY pair is trading at 154.05, showing signs of weakness as it struggles to hold above its pivot point at 154.20. A failure to maintain this level suggests bearish momentum could intensify, with immediate support at 153.74.
A break below this threshold could expose the pair to deeper declines toward 153.27 and 152.77, reinforcing the case for a potential downside move.
On the upside, resistance is forming at 154.80, with further hurdles at 155.24 and 155.86. A push above these levels could reignite bullish sentiment, paving the way for renewed buying interest. However, current price action suggests selling pressure is capping gains, limiting any immediate recovery attempts.
The 50-day EMA at 153.35 serves as a key indicator to watch. If USD/JPY drops below this mark, it could confirm further downside potential, triggering additional selling pressure.
Conversely, a sustained move above the pivot at 154.20 may shift momentum in favor of buyers, though a decisive break above 154.80 would be required to confirm an uptrend.
Traders looking to capitalize on this setup may consider selling below 154.18, with a take-profit target at 153.50 and a stop-loss set at 154.78 to manage risk effectively. While short-term volatility remains, overall sentiment leans bearish unless buyers reclaim key resistance levels.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 154.189
Take Profit – 153.501
Stop Loss – 154.788
Risk to Reward – 1:1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$688/ -$599
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$68/ -$59
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Feb 13, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its bearish rally and remained under pressure around the 153.70 level.
The Japanese Yen (JPY) strengthened after Japan's Producer Price Index (PPI) data came out stronger than expected, increasing the chances that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates again.
This gave the JPY a boost, making it more attractive to investors. Meanwhile, a drop in US Treasury bond yields added more pressure on the US Dollar (USD), further pushing USD/JPY lower.
However, the downside for the pair remains limited due to concerns over new tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on steel and aluminum imports, which could impact global trade and weigh on the JPY.
Moreover, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to maintain its hawkish stance, especially after strong US inflation data released on Wednesday. This could support the USD and prevent the USD/JPY pair from falling further.
As a result, traders should be cautious before expecting a significant drop in the currency pair, especially after it reached a one-week high the previous day.
USD/JPY Struggles as Fed's Hawkish Stance Clashes with BoJ Rate Hike Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar failed to stop its bearish rally and remained under pressure as the latest inflation data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates high for longer.
On the data front, the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.5% in January, marking the biggest increase since August 2023. On a yearly basis, inflation climbed to 3%, while core CPI (excluding food and energy) reached 3.3%.
This suggests that inflation remains sticky, supporting the Fed’s hawkish stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also signaled that monetary policy will stay restrictive as inflation is still above the 2% target. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond saw its biggest jump since December, increasing the interest rate gap between the US and Japan, which could help limit the US dollar’s losses.
Japanese Yen Gains on BoJ Rate Hike Hopes but Faces Trade Uncertainty
Apart from this, the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained strength as inflationary pressures continued to build. Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI) increased by 0.3% in January and 4.2% year-over-year, reinforcing expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might raise interest rates again. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and Deputy Governor Himino also hinted at a possible rate hike if economic conditions align with projections.
However, JPY bulls showed some caution due to concerns that US President Donald Trump’s tariffs on commodity imports could hurt Japan’s economy.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on the upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) and weekly jobless claims data, which could influence the US dollar’s movement and impact the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair is trading at 154.05, showing signs of weakness as it struggles to hold above its pivot point at 154.20. A failure to maintain this level suggests bearish momentum could intensify, with immediate support at 153.74.
A break below this threshold could expose the pair to deeper declines toward 153.27 and 152.77, reinforcing the case for a potential downside move.
On the upside, resistance is forming at 154.80, with further hurdles at 155.24 and 155.86. A push above these levels could reignite bullish sentiment, paving the way for renewed buying interest. However, current price action suggests selling pressure is capping gains, limiting any immediate recovery attempts.
The 50-day EMA at 153.35 serves as a key indicator to watch. If USD/JPY drops below this mark, it could confirm further downside potential, triggering additional selling pressure.
Conversely, a sustained move above the pivot at 154.20 may shift momentum in favor of buyers, though a decisive break above 154.80 would be required to confirm an uptrend.
Traders looking to capitalize on this setup may consider selling below 154.18, with a take-profit target at 153.50 and a stop-loss set at 154.78 to manage risk effectively. While short-term volatility remains, overall sentiment leans bearish unless buyers reclaim key resistance levels.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis – Feb 06, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair has recently faced some selling pressure but managed to regained its strength around 152.80 level as Japanese Yen (JPY) started to lose some of its recent gains, largely due to fears that Japan could also fall victim to US trade tariffs under President Donald Trump's policies.
This, combined with a risk-on market sentiment, has pushed the Yen lower. Moreover, a slight rebound in the US Dollar (USD) from a one-week low helped lift the USD/JPY pair back above the mid-153.00s range.
Japan's Economic Data and BoJ Policy Impact
The Japanese economy has recently shown signs of strength, with data released on Wednesday indicating an increase in real wages, further reinforcing expectations that the BoJ will hike interest rates.
This outlook is supported by comments from Japan's Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, who highlighted inflationary pressures, even though the country has not yet fully emerged from deflation.
Adding fuel to these expectations, BoJ Board Member Tamura Naoki endorsed the idea of faster interest rate hikes, suggesting a potential increase to around 1% by the latter half of fiscal 2025.
Market participants are currently pricing in a 94.8% chance that the BoJ will raise interest rates by 0.25% at its September monetary policy meeting. This would position Japan’s monetary policy tighter relative to the US, making the Yen more attractive as an investment.
Fed's Easing Bias and USD/JPY Price Action
In contrast, the US economic data has raised concerns about the health of the labor market, contributing to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
Recent figures, including the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), showed a decline in job openings, which, along with a soft Services PMI report, suggests the US economy may be slowing down.
This has led to a pullback in US Treasury yields and a weakening of the US Dollar, which in turn pressured the USD/JPY pair.
Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson stated that the Fed is content with holding interest rates steady, as the central bank waits to assess the long-term impact of US trade policies. This dovish stance supports the view that the USD may struggle to appreciate in the face of growing concerns about US economic conditions.
Geopolitical Risks and Market Sentiment
Apart from this, the current risk-on market mood is another factor weighing on the Japanese Yen. Investors appear to be less focused on the Yen's safe-haven appeal, as they are more optimistic about global economic growth, particularly in the US. This has led to increased demand for riskier assets and a pullback in JPY demand.
Moving ahead, the focus will remain on the upcoming US economic data, particularly the highly anticipated Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Friday.
Hence, the stronger-than-expected employment report could provide some support to the USD, while a weaker report would likely further dampen USD prospects, keeping the pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is trading at 152.415, down 0.11%, as the pair remains in a corrective phase after failing to sustain momentum above key resistance levels. Price action is hovering below the pivot point at 153.203, signaling continued pressure from sellers in the short term. A decisive move above this level is necessary to confirm a bullish reversal.
Immediate resistance is seen at 153.210, followed by 154.178 and 155.333, which could act as barriers to further gains. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 154.605 reinforces resistance, making a sustained break above this region crucial for renewed upside potential.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 151.087, with further levels at 150.407 and 149.771. If USD/JPY slips below 151.087, a deeper pullback could take shape, testing the lower support zones. However, the market remains in an overall uptrend, and dips toward support levels may present buying opportunities.
Given the current structure, a buy position above 151.828 is preferred, with a take profit target at 153.203 and a stop loss at 151.093 to manage risk effectively. A successful break above resistance could trigger a move toward higher targets, while a failure to hold above support may shift sentiment further bearish.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY faces resistance at 153.210; a break above could open the door to 154.178.
- Support at 151.087 is critical; a breakdown could drive selling pressure toward 150.407.
- Buy setup above 151.828, targeting 153.203, with stop loss at 151.093 for risk management.
USD/JPY is trading at 152.415, down 0.11%, as the pair remains in a corrective phase after failing to sustain momentum above key resistance levels. Price action is hovering below the pivot point at 153.203, signaling continued pressure from sellers in the short term. A decisive move above this level is necessary to confirm a bullish reversal.
Immediate resistance is seen at 153.210, followed by 154.178 and 155.333, which could act as barriers to further gains. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 154.605 reinforces resistance, making a sustained break above this region crucial for renewed upside potential.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 151.087, with further levels at 150.407 and 149.771. If USD/JPY slips below 151.087, a deeper pullback could take shape, testing the lower support zones. However, the market remains in an overall uptrend, and dips toward support levels may present buying opportunities.
Given the current structure, a buy position above 151.828 is preferred, with a take profit target at 153.203 and a stop loss at 151.093 to manage risk effectively. A successful break above resistance could trigger a move toward higher targets, while a failure to hold above support may shift sentiment further bearish.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 151.828
Take Profit – 153.203
Stop Loss – 151.093
Risk to Reward – 1:1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1375/ -$735
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$137/ -$73
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Thursday’s European session, the USD/JPY currency pair continued its downward trajectory, trading near 154.40. The Japanese yen (JPY) has been performing strongly against most currencies, bolstered by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its policy of interest rate hikes this year.
However, the speculation around Japan’s spring wage negotiations has fueled expectations of continued rate hikes, as wages are expected to rise, driving inflation upward.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) traded sideways after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first monetary policy decision of the year, where it left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, as expected.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would only resume the policy-easing cycle when there is progress toward its 2% inflation target or signs of weakness in the labor market.
US GDP Data and Global Market Sentiment Impact USD/JPY Outlook
On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) has remained under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance continues to weigh on market sentiment. While the Fed left interest rates unchanged, traders are awaiting the release of the US fourth-quarter GDP data.
The data is expected to show a slowdown in economic growth, with a forecasted annualized rate of 2.6%, down from 3.1% in Q3 2024. A weaker GDP report could further diminish investor confidence in the USD, keeping the pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
BoJ’s Rate Hike Expectations Keep JPY on the Rise, Weakening USD/JPY
On the JPY front, the Japanese Yen has been benefiting from a positive outlook for the country's economy. Speculation is increasing that the BoJ will continue raising interest rates this year, particularly following expectations for strong wage hikes in Japan’s spring wage negotiations.
These developments are seen as a potential catalyst for higher inflation in Japan, which the BoJ aims to address through tighter monetary policy. As the Yen gains strength, the USD/JPY pair has struggled to maintain upward momentum.
Additionally, BoJ Deputy Governor Himino's comments reinforced the expectation that the central bank would act decisively if economic and inflation trends align.
This has provided further support to the Yen, keeping the USD/JPY pair under pressure, especially after it failed to break above the 155.00 resistance level.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair continues to decline, slipping below the 154.952 pivot level, as the yen strengthens amid risk-off sentiment and shifting rate expectations.
The pair remains under pressure as traders weigh U.S. economic data against potential policy shifts from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
The 50-day EMA at 155.313 is now acting as a dynamic resistance level, reinforcing selling pressure. If USD/JPY fails to reclaim 154.952, further declines toward 153.903 are likely, with the next support levels resting at 153.292 and 152.683.
A decisive break below these levels could accelerate downside momentum, signaling increased yen demand.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at 155.616, followed by 156.318 and 157.022. A break above 155.616 could ease bearish sentiment, but momentum remains weak as long as the pair stays below the 50-day EMA.
From a trading perspective, a sell position below 154.951 aligns with a take profit target at 153.904 and a stop loss at 155.744, reflecting the bearish bias. Unless the U.S. dollar regains strength or the BoJ signals policy shifts, USD/JPY may remain under pressure.
Traders should watch upcoming U.S. inflation data and any policy commentary from Japanese officials for further directional cues.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY struggles below 154.952 pivot, signaling further downside risk.
- 50-day EMA at 155.313 acts as a strong resistance level.
- Break below 153.903 could accelerate losses toward 152.683.
The USD/JPY pair continues to decline, slipping below the 154.952 pivot level, as the yen strengthens amid risk-off sentiment and shifting rate expectations.
The pair remains under pressure as traders weigh U.S. economic data against potential policy shifts from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
The 50-day EMA at 155.313 is now acting as a dynamic resistance level, reinforcing selling pressure. If USD/JPY fails to reclaim 154.952, further declines toward 153.903 are likely, with the next support levels resting at 153.292 and 152.683.
A decisive break below these levels could accelerate downside momentum, signaling increased yen demand.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at 155.616, followed by 156.318 and 157.022. A break above 155.616 could ease bearish sentiment, but momentum remains weak as long as the pair stays below the 50-day EMA.
From a trading perspective, a sell position below 154.951 aligns with a take profit target at 153.904 and a stop loss at 155.744, reflecting the bearish bias. Unless the U.S. dollar regains strength or the BoJ signals policy shifts, USD/JPY may remain under pressure.
Traders should watch upcoming U.S. inflation data and any policy commentary from Japanese officials for further directional cues.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 154.951
Take Profit – 153.904
Stop Loss – 155.744
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1047/ -$793
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$104/ -$79
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Jan 23, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The USD/JPY currency pair has been experiencing a mixed performance, with recent movements showcasing a downward trend.
This shift comes as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gains some traction, recovering from a one-week low against the US Dollar (USD).
The primary reason behind this decline is the growing anticipation that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hike interest rates at the conclusion of its two-day policy meeting.
Market participants are also reacting to Japan’s better-than-expected Trade Balance data, which showed a surplus of ¥130.9 billion in December, reversing expectations of a deficit. Resilient export growth of 2.8% year-on-year further supports the JPY.
However, subdued local demand, reflected by lower-than-expected import growth, adds caution to the outlook. The
Meanwhile, the US dollar has faced pressure amid expectations that the Federal Reserve may lower interest rates this year due to easing inflation in the US. This was seen as another key factor behind the USD/JPY’s recent bearish movements.
Further Recovery in US Bond Yields and Its Impact on USD/JPY Pair
On the US front, the US dollar has found some support due to a modest recovery in US Treasury bond yields, which acts as a tailwind for the USD/JPY pair.
Moreover, the risk-on sentiment in the broader financial markets has contributed to the USD holding steady above its monthly lows. However, the impact of bond yields on the USD/JPY pair remains limited due to the ongoing anticipation of the BoJ’s policy decision.
Traders are also closely monitoring US labor market data, such as the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, for further insights into the economic outlook.
While the USD remains supported by bond market dynamics, the pair’s performance continues to be influenced by Japan’s policy stance and trade data.
Growing Acceptance of BoJ Rate Hike and Its Impact on USD/JPY Pair
On the other hand, the USD/JPY pair is being influenced by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will raise interest rates at its January 23-24 meeting, potentially from 0.25% to 0.50%. This would be the highest rate since 2008.
The BoJ aims to tackle rising prices and encourage wage increases, which are critical for Japan's economic growth.
This move contrasts with the US Federal Reserve, as markets expect the Fed to cut rates twice later this year. As a result, the Japanese yen has gained strength, pushing the USD/JPY pair lower.
However, the US dollar remains supported by high bond yields and positive market sentiment, preventing a major drop. Traders are now closely watching the BoJ’s decision and US news for further direction.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
USD/JPY is currently trading at 156.69, marking a slight increase of 0.13% as the pair stays above the pivot point at 156.39. The bullish momentum remains intact, supported by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 155.89, which acts as a key support level.
Immediate resistance is seen at 157.34, with further upside targets at 158.18 and 158.88. A sustained break above these levels could drive the pair higher, reflecting continued dollar strength amid evolving market conditions.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 155.56, followed by key levels at 154.91 and 154.09. A breach below these support zones could trigger a bearish correction, with selling pressure potentially gaining traction. However, the technical outlook suggests a cautiously bullish sentiment as long as the pair holds above the pivot.
Fundamental drivers, including expectations for U.S. monetary policy and risk sentiment, remain pivotal for USD/JPY movements. Traders are keeping a close watch on upcoming economic releases and central bank statements, which could influence the pair’s trajectory in the near term.
A buy position is recommended above 156.385, targeting 157.319, with a stop loss at 155.762 to limit potential downside risks.
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USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- USD/JPY remains bullish above the pivot point of 156.39, targeting resistance at 157.34.
- The 50-day EMA at 155.89 acts as dynamic support, reinforcing the uptrend.
- A drop below 155.56 could shift momentum, with further downside potential toward 154.91.
USD/JPY is currently trading at 156.69, marking a slight increase of 0.13% as the pair stays above the pivot point at 156.39. The bullish momentum remains intact, supported by the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 155.89, which acts as a key support level.
Immediate resistance is seen at 157.34, with further upside targets at 158.18 and 158.88. A sustained break above these levels could drive the pair higher, reflecting continued dollar strength amid evolving market conditions.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 155.56, followed by key levels at 154.91 and 154.09. A breach below these support zones could trigger a bearish correction, with selling pressure potentially gaining traction. However, the technical outlook suggests a cautiously bullish sentiment as long as the pair holds above the pivot.
Fundamental drivers, including expectations for U.S. monetary policy and risk sentiment, remain pivotal for USD/JPY movements. Traders are keeping a close watch on upcoming economic releases and central bank statements, which could influence the pair’s trajectory in the near term.
A buy position is recommended above 156.385, targeting 157.319, with a stop loss at 155.762 to limit potential downside risks.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 156.385
Take Profit – 157.319
Stop Loss – 155.762
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$934/ -$623
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$93/ -$62
USD/JPY Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Critical Pivot Point: USD/JPY needs to stay above 155.553 to maintain bullish momentum.
- Resistance Levels: Key resistance lies at 156.909, followed by 158.552 and 159.629.
- EMA Observation: The 50-day EMA at 157.598 caps immediate upside potential, signaling a cautious outlook.
The USD/JPY pair is trading at 156.077, down 0.21% on the day, as the market consolidates below the pivot point of 155.553. Despite this minor decline, the broader trend suggests potential bullish momentum, particularly if the pair sustains trading above the pivot level.
Immediate resistance is located at 156.909, followed by 158.552 and 159.629. On the downside, immediate support is observed at 154.437, with further levels at 153.260 and 151.973.
The 50-day EMA at 157.598 currently acts as a key overhead resistance, aligning with the immediate resistance zone. The pair’s inability to break above this EMA reflects short-term bearish sentiment, though the price remains within a broader upward channel.
A sustained move above 155.553 could trigger buying interest, targeting 157.365 and beyond, while a drop below 154.437 might signal additional bearish pressure.
Traders should closely monitor price action around 155.553. A decisive break above this level would reinforce the bullish outlook, while failure to hold could shift sentiment toward testing deeper support levels.
USD/JPY - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 155.546
Take Profit – 157.365
Stop Loss – 154.660
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1819/ -$886
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$181/ -$88