Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) have failed to maintain their previous upward momentum and have lost some of their traction for the day. The precious metal is currently maintaining a bearish tone as it enters the European session. This is primarily due to a positive risk sentiment in the market, which is diminishing the appeal of traditional safe-haven assets. Furthermore, the higher US Treasury bond yields, buoyed by increasing expectations of further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), represent another substantial factor that is exerting downward pressure on the non-yielding yellow metal.

However, the losses in the gold price could be short-lived, thanks to the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, which may help safe-haven gold limit its declines. In the meantime, the growing belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain unchanged interest rates for the second consecutive time in November, should provide some support for XAU/USD.

Moreover, the dovish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy are putting pressure on US Dollar (USD) bulls, which is likely to limit losses for the US Dollar-denominated commodity. Traders may also choose to await signals regarding the Fed's future rate-hike decisions before engaging in directional trades.

Gold Price and Market Analysis Amid Ongoing Geopolitical Factors

Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker stated on Monday that the central bank should keep rates at their current level unless there is a significant change in the data. However, last week's US consumer inflation figures left room for the possibility of one more Fed rate hike by the end of the year. The potential for further tightening of monetary policy by the Fed continues to bolster elevated US bond yields, providing a tailwind for the US Dollar.

Traders are currently turning their attention to the upcoming US Retail Sales data for market direction, but the spotlight will remain on Fed Chair Jerome Powell's scheduled speech on Thursday. It's anticipated that US Retail Sales may have increased by 0.3% in September, with sales, excluding automobiles, expected to record a modest uptick of 0.2% for the reported month.

Escalating Geopolitical Tensions Impacting Gold Prices

Gold prices might continue to rise due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, which could potentially escalate into a broader proxy war involving Iran. The Israel Defense Forces chief has suggested that the army will soon enter the Gaza Strip to target the Hamas group.

Thereby, Israel has advised Palestinians to evacuate to the southern area of the Gaza City enclave in anticipation of a large-scale ground assault against the terrorist activities. Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office has denied reports of a cease-fire for humanitarian aid and the evacuation of Gaza residents with international passports to Egypt.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

As of October 17, gold is trading at $1915.00, marking a significant place in the trading charts. With a focus on a 4-hour chart timeframe, several key price levels emerge to shape the day's trading landscape. The pivot point stands firm at $1909. Investors and traders would do well to watch out for the immediate resistance positioned at $1923, followed by subsequent resistances at $1933 and $1948. On the other side of the spectrum, immediate support is found at $1897. Further declines might find support at $1883 and then more robust support at the $1868 level.

Diving deeper into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is clocking in at 57. This value indicates a mild bullish sentiment, as the RSI figure surpasses the 50-mark, hinting at a slight tilt towards buying momentum in the market.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) provides a valuable touchstone, currently resting at $1896.00. With the gold price trading above this EMA, it signifies a short-term bullish trend. This further substantiates the notion that the sentiment for gold remains buoyant, at least in the near term.

While specific chart patterns are yet to fully manifest, it's paramount for investors to remain vigilant. Patterns such as symmetrical triangles or upward channels could provide crucial insights into potential price breakouts, either bullish or bearish.

To sum it up, the overall trend for gold seems to be bullish, especially when prices remain above the $1896 mark. Conversely, slipping below this price could introduce bearish sentiments. As for the short-term forecast, given the prevailing indicators and price levels, gold may very well test its resistance levels in the near future.

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Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair began the week positively, rebounding from a one-week low just below the psychological mark of 1.0500 after two consecutive days of losses. This upward trend is largely attributed to the lackluster performance of the US Dollar, which, in turn, is providing some support to the EUR/USD pair. In contrast to this, there is still the expectation of at least one more interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2023, which is good news for the dollar and could limit the euro's upward momentum.

Another factor that could cap further gains in the EUR/USD pair is the belief that the European Central Bank won't be raising interest rates in the near term. This may prevent bullish movements in the shared currency. So, while the EUR/USD pair has shown some positive momentum, it's crucial to exercise caution when making significant predictions.

Factors Influencing the US Dollar and EUR/USD Pair

The broad-based US dollar struggled to maintain its upward momentum on Monday. Despite gaining strength due to recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, it failed to capitalize on those gains. This lack of a clear upward trend offered some support to the EUR/USD pair. However, the reason for its mixed stance is the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain higher interest rates for an extended period. This expectation was reinforced by the latest US consumer inflation data released last Thursday, which exceeded the Fed's target and kept the possibility of at least one more Fed rate increase in 2023 alive.

Despite experiencing downward pressure, the US dollar is managing to mitigate its losses thanks to several factors. These include elevated US Treasury bond yields, dovish comments from Fed officials suggesting that interest rates may remain unchanged for a second consecutive month in November, and a positive outlook in the US equity futures market, which is weakening the dollar's safe-haven appeal. However, speculation that the European Central Bank (ECB) will not raise rates anytime soon is limiting the gains for the EUR/USD pair.

European Central Bank's Stance and Christine Lagarde's Caution

On the other hand, the European Central Bank (ECB) made it clear in September that their recent interest rate hike, the 10th in a 14-month-long battle against inflation, is likely the last one for now. Additionally, ECB policymakers expressed cautious optimism last week, indicating that they believe inflation might return to 2% without requiring further rate hikes.

Furthermore, ECB President Christine Lagarde addressed the International Monetary Fund's meeting over the weekend. She noted that if the impact of monetary policy proves to be more potent than anticipated, or if the global economy further weakens and geopolitical risks escalate, it could potentially impede economic growth. This cautious statement is essential for those who are speculating on the EUR/USD increase.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

On October 16, the EUR/USD currency pair marked a value of 1.05248, illustrating a marginal ascent of 0.20%. Over a four-hour chart timeframe, critical data points emerge, illuminating potential future movements.

Starting with pivotal data points, the pair's current pivot point stands at 1.05495. Looking ahead, resistance levels manifest at 1.06018, 1.06912, and 1.07457. Conversely, support tiers for the asset are marked at 1.04558, followed closely by 1.04035 and extending to 1.0312.

Delving into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers at 41, which, while not indicating overbought conditions, suggests the pair is leaning toward the bearish spectrum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showcases a value of -0.0009, with its signal counterpart at -0.0014. This alignment hints at the MACD line having recently ventured above the signal line, insinuating possible upcoming bullish momentum.

Furthermore, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) posts a value of 1.05601. Interestingly, the current price lies below this EMA value. Traditionally, when a price positions itself below the 50 EMA, it often indicates a short-term bearish trend. Therefore, traders should tread cautiously and monitor subsequent movements closely.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) prolonged its upward rally and reached a three-week high at around $1,932-1,933 during the weekend. However, the reason for its bullish stance can be attributed to the escalating conflict between Israel and Hamas, which caused investors to turn to safe-haven assets like gold. Furthermore, the ongoing belief that the Federal Reserve is nearing the end of its interest rate increase cycle provided an additional boost to the value of this precious metal.

As its usual, gold tends to be an attractive choice during times of uncertainty in financial markets and the economy, even though it doesn't yield interest like some other investments. Therefore, the geopolitical tensions and the Fed's monetary policy outlook contributed to the significant rise in gold prices.

Looking forward, traders are cautious and holding off on making significant moves in the gold market as they are waiting for more information about the Fed's future interest rate decisions.

Escalating Geopolitical Tensions in the Middle East

As mentioned earlier, the price of gold surged by approximately 3.5% on Friday and witnessed a impressive growth of more than 5% for the entire week, marking the most significant rise since March. However, this surge in gold prices was a result of heightened tensions between Hamas and Israeli forces, causing people to seek gold as a safe investment.

It is worth noting that Israeli militaries have issued a deadline for residents in northern Gaza to leave. Furthermore, the Israeli military is now prepared with armored vehicles and is considering a large-scale ground assault in the Gaza Strip. This can be witnessed after the Israel Defense Force (IDF)'s announcement that showed their readiness for a coordinated attack using air, ground, and naval forces.

In response to this, Iran has warned of serious consequences if Israel's attacks continue. Furthermore, Israel will likely face potential conflict on its northern border with Lebanon due to clashes with the Iran-backed Hezbollah group. Hence, the situation is not showing any sign of slowing down and getting tense time by time. Therefore, the world is closely watching the developments in the region.

Economic Factors Impacting the Gold Market

Furthermore, US consumer sentiment declined in October, which strengthens the belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will maintain its current interest rates for a second consecutive month in November. This news has kept US bond yields at higher levels, with speculation that the Fed might not be done with its tightening policies and could raise rates once more before the year ends.

Traders seem cautious to place any strong position and prefer to wait for new information about the Fed's future rate plans and key economic data from China. In the meantime, the upcoming release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index in the US, speeches by Fed officials, and movements in US bond yields will influence the value of the US dollar. Plus, overall market sentiment will play a role in shaping the demand for the safe-haven gold.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

On October 16, gold exhibited a bearish sentiment, with its trading price falling to $1920.11, a decline of approximately 0.70% during the Asian trading session. This movement was documented over a four-hour chart timeframe, revealing noteworthy trends and potential market shifts.

Regarding vital data points, gold's current pivot point resides at $1900.57. For potential upward movement, resistance levels have been identified at $1967.03, escalating to $2000.26, and peaking at $2066.73.

On the opposing spectrum, should gold seek lower grounds, immediate support stands at $1866.01, further solidifying at $1799.54, and stabilizing at $1764.98.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for gold is positioned at 73. This surpasses the 70 mark, indicating that gold is currently experiencing overbought conditions. Concurrently, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) delineates a value of 4.33, contrasting with its signal line which is at 17.74.

This presents a scenario where the MACD line has maneuvered above its signal counterpart, implying a potential bullish momentum. However, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) clocks in at $1872.29. With gold's price situated above this EMA, the metal showcases a short-term bullish trend.

In conclusion, it is worth noting a significant downward trendline offering a robust resistance level at $1925. For investors and traders alike, considering a bearish sentiment below this juncture is advisable. Conversely, any movement above this resistance could tilt the balance in favor of the bulls.

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Daily Price Outlook

Despite the dovish stance of the Bank of England (BoE) regarding future interest rate hikes, the GBP/USD currency pair has been performing well today, with an increase of 0.30%, trading in the range of 1.2175 to 1.2180. Notably, this positive change comes after two consecutive days of losses. However, the reason behind this uptrend can be attributed to a weakening of the US dollar, driven by uncertainty surrounding potential interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Besides this, investor confidence has grown due to risk-on-market sentiment, which is putting further pressure on the US dollar.

Factors Impacting GBP/USD and the Weaker US Dollar

The broad-based US dollar is beginning the week on a weaker note due to uncertainties surrounding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate hikes. This uncertainty bodes well for the GBP/USD pair. It should be noted that the several Federal Reserve officials have recently indicated that they may not raise rates in November. This, coupled with the positive sentiment in the stock market, is lowering the attractiveness of the US dollar.

Nevertheless, last week, the US data release indicating a rise in consumer prices prompted some individuals to speculate that the Federal Reserve might raise interest rates by year-end. This development has driven up interest rates on US Treasury bonds, which is beneficial for the dollar.

Furthermore, the ongoing battle between Israel and Hamas, have led some to seek the safety of the dollar for their investments. This ws seen as one of the key factor that may help the US dollar to limit its deeper losses. Lastly, the expectation that the Bank of England will maintain its existing policies in November was seen as another key factor that acting as a barrier, preventing the GBP/USD pair from making more significant gains.

GBP/USD Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor

Furthermore, the Bank of England (BoE) surprised everyone by refraining from raising interest rates in September and providing no clear signals about when they might do so. Therefore, investors must patiently await a strong buying interest in the GBP/USD pair before concluding whether the recent decline from the mid-1.2300s has come to an end. On Monday, there are no significant economic data releases in the UK, but the US will be releasing the Empire State Manufacturing Index.

Notably, the speeches from influential Federal Reserve (FOMC) members will be in spotlight in order to gain insights into the future actions of the US central bank. Furthermore, the performance of US bond yields and the overall market sentiment will play a major role in determining the demand for the US dollar, affecting the GBP/USD pair later in the day.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

On October 16, the GBP/USD currency pair observed a modest uptick, registering a price of 1.21614, reflecting a gain of approximately 0.15% during the Asian trading window. This movement has been captured over a 4-hour chart timeframe, presenting critical data and inferences.

An essential metric, the pivot point, is identified at 1.22047 for the GBP/USD pair. On the upside, potential resistance levels are established at 1.22815, followed by a stronger resistance at 1.24174, culminating at the significant 1.24971. Conversely, should the pair experience downward traction, the immediate support to be mindful of stands at 1.20658. Subsequent layers of support solidify at 1.1989 and deepen further at 1.18532.

Shifting focus to key technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the GBP/USD is valued at 40. While this doesn't immediately indicate overbought or oversold conditions, it's verging on a bearish sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reveals a value of -0.0014, with its signal line positioned at -0.0021. This formation suggests that the MACD line resides above the signal line, potentially hinting at an upcoming bullish momentum. Meanwhile, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is calculated at 1.22131. Since the current GBP/USD price is slightly below this EMA, it points towards a short-term bearish sentiment.

In conclusion, the 50 EMA coupled with the recently breached upward channel is now establishing resistance at 1.2228. This resistance level holds significance and is one traders and investors might want to keep an eye on for future movements.

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Gold price (XAU/USD) prolonged its upward rally and gained some further traction around above 1,886 level. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the decline in the value of the U.S. dollar, which was being pressured by the release of strong U.S. consumer price data, which has raised concerns that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates further in order to combat inflation and bring it closer to its target of 2%.

Furthermore, the ongoing global uncertainties and issues have prompted investors to seek refuge in safe-haven assets like gold. Gold is considered a reliable and secure investment during times of uncertainty. Consequently, gold prices are on the rise today, particularly during the early part of the European trading session.

As we all are well aware that the most significant development in global markets right now has been the release of consumer inflation data from the United States (US). These figures showed a higher-than-expected increase in inflation for the month of September, which has bolstered expectations of additional tightening measures by the Federal Reserve (the Fed). This outcome resulted in a notable overnight surge in US Treasury bond yields and sparked a substantial short-covering rally for the US Dollar (USD). This rally in the US Dollar was viewed as a major factor putting downward pressure on precious metals, including gold.

Gold Prices Stabilize Amid Economic Uncertainty

It is important to note that the price of gold paused its recent drop, mainly due to falling US Treasury bond yields and a weaker US Dollar. The uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy, driven by comments from its officials, remains. Notably, the recent US consumer inflation data showed a 0.4% increase in September, keeping the yearly rate at 3.7%, slightly above expectations, the Core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, met expectations but dipped to a 4.1% yearly rate in September.

Despite inflation staying above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, there is still a possibility of additional interest rate hikes to manage and control it. Boston Fed President Susan Collins has hinted at the potential necessity for such moves. Furthermore, the ongoing tensions between Israel and Hamas are contributing to the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.

Looking ahead, market watchers are focusing on the Preliminary Michigan US Consumer Confidence Index, which includes 5-10-year inflation expectations that have slightly decreased since May. Additionally, a speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and US bond yields will impact the US dollar's movement, creating short-term trading chances for gold prices as the week ends.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

As of October 13, Gold is exhibiting intriguing dynamics on the technical front. Currently priced at $1877, it has experienced a 0.48% uptick within a 24-hour window. Analyzing a 4-hour chart timeframe, pivotal price markers have come to the fore.

A pivot point stands established at $1869. On the resistance spectrum, the initial resistance resides at $1881, followed by subsequent resistances at $1901 and $1916. Conversely, immediate support is delineated at $1854, with ensuing support levels at $1835 and $1820. Diving into technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is noted at 64, alluding to a bullish sentiment, given it's greater than 50.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (50 EMA) further consolidates this sentiment, priced at $1860 and indicating that Gold's price trajectory is above this average, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. The chart also reveals a Triple Top Pattern that might hinder upside momentum around the $1880 mark.

However, the 50 EMA's positioning suggests potential buying opportunities.

On the fundamental front, US inflation data for September 2023 remains unaltered at 3.7%, surpassing the anticipated 3.6%. This steady rate is attributed to a subdued drop in energy prices, primarily as fuel prices make a comeback.

Given these parameters, a bullish overtone is sensed: a breakout above $1880 could stimulate further buying. (edited)

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The global market sentiment has been flashing mixed signals and remained under pressure on the day. This can be witnessed by the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index, which experienced a significant drop on the day. However, this decline was mainly driven by the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, which exceeded the predictions of experts.

It's important to understand that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a way to track how much the prices of everyday items are going up. In September, the CPI showed an annual increase of 3.7%. This number was about the same as the previous month, but it was a bit higher than what the market was hoping for, as they expected a smaller increase of 3.6%.

Hence, this unexpected increase in prices shook the stock market because it suggests that inflation is still a concern. This can reduce the value of money and worry investors. That's why the stock market moved down. This shows that the stock market is easily affected by economic data.

Hence, investors are closely monitoring these figures because they have the potential to influence the government's financial injections into the economy and the possible adjustments in interest rates. These, in turn, have an impact on the stock market.

Furthermore, the ongoing conflicts between Israel and the Palestinian Islamist group, Hamas, have significantly influenced global stock markets.

Inflation Concerns and Their Impact on the Financial Market

It is worth mentioning that recent reports suggest that the United States is currently facing unexpectedly high inflation rates, which poses a significant economic challenge. As a result, the Federal Reserve is considering the possibility of keeping interest rates higher for an extended period in an effort to control the growing inflation.

This situation has negatively impacted the stock market, leading to a drop in stock prices, although the US dollar remains strong. Looking ahead, market experts are speculating that the Federal Reserve might think about slightly lowering interest rates in 2024, but this could change because inflation is still going up. This situation shows that the financial world is complicated, and investors need to be watchful and ready to change their strategies based on economic news, government policies, and global market reactions.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

On October 13, the S&P500 (SPX) stands at 4340, experiencing a decrease of 0.62% within the last 24 hours. This observation is based on a 4-hour chart timeframe.

The pivot point for the index is pinpointed at 4357. Several significant resistance and support levels emerge around this pivot.

The immediate resistance is located at 4399, followed by subsequent resistances at 4447 and 4504. Should the index retract, immediate support might be felt at 4331, with the potential for steeper declines towards the support levels at 4287 and 4214.

Analyzing the technical indicators offers further insights. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 54. An RSI value greater than 50 traditionally indicates bullish sentiment, suggesting a slightly positive momentum for the index.

In conclusion, the overall trend for the S&P500 (SPX) leans bearish, especially if the price sustains below the 4357 mark. On the flip side, surpassing this level could tilt the sentiment to bullish.

For short-term maneuvers, traders and investors should anticipate the index's movements around these delineated levels, especially with a potential test of the 4399 resistance in the forthcoming sessions.

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During the European session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trajectory, hovering above the 1.0540 level. However, this uptrend is being supported by a weakness in the US dollar. It should be noted that the concerns surrounding future interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve have played a major in undermining the US dollar. These concerns are exerting downward pressure on US bond yields and the dollar. Moreover, traders appear hesitant to place strong bullish bets on the euro, possibly due to expectations that the European Central Bank will refrain from further rate increases.

Factors Behind EUR/USD's Recent Volatility

It's important to highlight that on Thursday, the EUR/USD pair witnessed its most significant one-day decline since early October. This drop occurred in response to the release of US consumer inflation data, which raised expectations of another Federal Reserve interest rate hike in 2023. This, in turn, bolstered demand for the US Dollar. Both the headline and Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures remained above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, signaling the potential for further tightening of monetary policy.

Although, the losses in the pair were short-lived as it swiftly regained its lost strength amid the recent comments from some Fed officials suggesting that the central bank may be nearing the end of its rate hike cycle, which is keeping a lid on US bond yields and preventing the USD from building on its recent recovery. Furthermore, the modest increase in US equity futures is weakening the safe-haven appeal of the dollar and providing some support for the EUR/USD pair.

ECB's Cautious Stance and Upcoming Market Drivers

Furthermore, European Central Bank (ECB) policymakers have cautiously expressed hope that inflation will reach 2%, even without additional rate hikes. In September, the ECB hinted that its 10th rate hike in a year-long battle against inflation would likely be its last. At the same time, the worry about the economy slowing down and the fear of a recession looming make it less likely for the ECB to raise rates again. This was seen as one of the key factors that kept the lid on any additional gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Looking forward, traders are paying attention to comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde at the World Bank Group and the International Monetary Fund Annual Meeting in Morocco, as her remarks may affect the shared currency and provide momentum to the EUR/USD pair. Besides, they will keep an eye on a speech by Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which will influence demand for the US dollar.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair, as of October 13, stands at 1.05442, reflecting a slight increase of +0.14% over the past 24 hours. This analysis is grounded in a 4-hour chart timeframe.

Pivotal to its price movement is the identified pivot point at 1.0545. From here, traders can anticipate several key resistance and support levels. The immediate resistance hovers at 1.0641, with further resistances at 1.0695 and 1.0793.

Conversely, if the pair retreats, immediate support could be found at 1.0489, followed by stronger supports at 1.0394 and 1.0337.

A glance at the technical indicators furnishes us with additional insights. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 42, suggesting a neutral sentiment. The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) stands at 1.0570. It's noteworthy that the price is below the 50 EMA, which implies a short-term bearish trend.

Chart patterns are also crucial in predicting future price movements. Currently, the EUR/USD has shown an upward channel breakout at 1.0540. This breakout, combined with the 50 EMA positioning, suggests a selling trend.

In conclusion, the overall trend for the EUR/USD is bearish, particularly if it remains below the 1.0570 mark. Conversely, if the asset surpasses this threshold, we might witness a bullish turn. For the short term, traders should be vigilant for potential fluctuations around these mentioned levels.

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During the European trading session on a Thursday, Gold prices (XAU/USD) have managed to extend their winning streak and climbed to a two-week high. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which continue to push investors toward gold as a safe-haven asset. Meanwhile, the bearish bias in the US Dollar was seen as another key factor that has been lending support to gold's upward movement.

Gold Prices Recover Despite Stock Market Strength

As we all are well aware Gold prices have recovered more than 30% of the losses they experienced in September. This positive trend continues even though the stock markets are showing green signals. However, the reason for this positive trend is the belief that the Federal Reserve is getting closer to ending its cycle of interest rate hikes. This expectation is making the perspective for XAU/USD more favorable for an upward movement.

Although, this bullish trend might slow down as investors await the latest US consumer inflation figures, which are due later in the North American session. This keeps the investors cautious about placing any strong position.

Moving ahead, the upcoming US Consumer Price Index report will give some solid clues regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate decisions, which will likely affect the demand for the US Dollar and impact the price of gold in the near term future.

Therefore, it is important to keep an eye on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because if it shows that inflation in the US is slowing down, the Federal Reserve is more likely to maintain current interest rates in November. This could weaken the US dollar, making gold a more attractive option for investors.

On the flip side, if the CPI report indicates strong inflation, any immediate impact on gold prices is expected to be short-lived. Notably, the headline CPI is projected to have slowed to 0.3% in September, with an annual rate of 3.6%. The Core CPI, which garners more attention, is expected to remain at a 0.3% monthly rate and show a 4.1% yearly increase.

Ongoing Conflict in the Middle East and Economic Indicators Influence Gold

Moreover, the ongoing Israel-Palestine conflict, coupled with escalating Middle East tensions, is driving investors towards gold as a safe-haven asset. This trend is further fueled by the recent dip in the value of the US Dollar.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

On October 12, Gold (XAU/USD) exhibited a positive trajectory, registering a modest 0.31% gain to settle at $1,878.9 as reflected in the 4-hour chart. A broader analysis reveals the pivot point for the precious metal anchored at $1,831.

In terms of resistance barriers, the first immediate hurdle stands at $1,851, followed closely by $1,869 and a more formidable barrier at $1,890. On the support end, Gold finds a preliminary cushion at $1,813, with deeper anchors set at $1,792 and further down at $1,774.

Technical indicators are pointing toward the bullish side. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) registers a value of 76, which is indicative of overbought conditions. This often signals a strong buying trend, but traders should exercise caution as it may also hint at potential pullbacks. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) portrays an upward momentum, with the MACD line at 1.59 crossing above its signal line, which stands at 9.8. Furthermore, Gold is currently trading above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which is priced at $1,856, further emphasizing a short-term bullish trend.

In conclusion, the prevailing sentiment for Gold remains bullish, especially as the metal maintains its position above the $1,863 mark. If XAU/USD manages to break through the $1,880 resistance level, we could witness a heightened buying trend. The ongoing scenario presents a robust case for Gold's positive momentum, although investors and traders are advised to monitor key technical benchmarks and remain vigilant to potential shifts in the market landscape.

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The USD/JPY currency pair failed to maintain its upward stance and dropped around 149.00 during the European session on Thursday. The currency pair has been facing challenges due to the possibility of the Federal Reserve (Fed) ending the rate-hike cycle, which underminned the US dollar and contributed to the USD/JPY pair.

Some investors think the Fed may not increase rates anymore. Fed Governor Christopher Waller suggests taking it easy with rate hikes and believes that the financial markets might naturally stabilize things. On the other hand, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman is in favor of another rate hike, citing ongoing inflation above the Fed's 2% target.

Japanese Yen Weakens as Bank of Japan Emphasizes Flexible Monetary Policy

The Japanese Yen is weakening due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) persistently easy monetary policy. BoJ board member Asahi Noguchi highlighted concerns about wage growth and attributed inflation to import price increases. He stressed the importance of achieving the 2% inflation target and real wage growth while expressing support for the current Yield Curve Control (YCC) policy.

Noguchi also suggested that if central banks avoid rate hikes and inflation remains stable, the risk of a hard economic landing can be reduced. Overall, he advocates for a flexible approach to maintain an accommodative policy under YCC, balancing economic recovery with effective management of inflation expectations in Japan's gradually recovering economy.

Mixed Signals on Fed Rate Hike Plans and Economic Indicators

Investors are grappling with uncertainty regarding the US Federal Reserve's rate hike intentions. Fed Governor Christopher Waller supports a cautious approach, emphasizing the role of market tightening, while Fed Governor Michelle Bowman leans towards another rate hike due to ongoing inflation. This divergence in perspectives is reflected in the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, highlighting the significance of data-driven decisions and the requirement for substantial inflation growth to reach a policy consensus.

Notably, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) rose in September, and the focus now shifts to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release, with expectations of a slight annual rate decrease. The US Dollar Index (DXY) faces challenges due to subdued Treasury yields, particularly the 10-year bond, which stands at 4.54%. Hence, the USD/JPY pair may experience volatility as uncertainty surrounding the Fed's rate hike plans persists.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

On October 12, the USD/JPY currency pair saw a marginal downtrend of 0.11%, positioning at 149.122 during the Asian trading session as reflected in the 4-hour chart. The established pivot point for the pair stands at 148.92.

From a resistance standpoint, USD/JPY confronts an immediate barrier at 150.55, with ensuing levels positioned at 151.78 and 153.41. Contrarily, the support zones are discernible at 147.69, then at 146.04 and further down to 144.81.

Focusing on the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) manifests a value of 55, which tilts slightly towards a bullish bias, yet remains neutral without entering the overbought or oversold territories.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) posts a reading of 0.061, contrasting with its signal line at 0.02, signifying possible upward momentum. Significantly, the pair currently hovers just above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), marked at 148.94, which typically indicates a short-term bullish inclination.

While specific chart patterns are yet to emerge prominently, the overarching sentiment for USD/JPY leans bearish if it settles below the 149.30 mark, with a potential reversal to bullishness if it surpasses this threshold. For the immediate future, traders should remain vigilant and anticipate potential tests of the aforementioned resistance and support zones, which would shape the short-term direction of the currency pair.

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Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair struggled to maintain its intraday gains and lost some of its gains despite some positive news regarding Australian Consumer Inflation Expectations. It's worth noting that the most recent report from the Melbourne Institute showed a modest increase in October, with expectations standing at 4.8%, a slight improvement from the previous month's 4.6%. However, this uptick can be attributed to rising oil prices, particularly the surge in petrol costs, which are influencing consumer expectations for the near future.

Despite these factors, the AUD/USD pair faced challenges, possibly due to concerns related to a potential interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA).

USD Struggles Amidst Low Treasury Yields and Fed Uncertainty

The broad-based US dollar is currently facing challenges around the 105.70 mark, thanks to the low US Treasury yields. Despite strong economic indicators, there's a prevailing uncertainty regarding the potential for an upcoming interest rate hike by the US Federal Reserve. In September, the Producer Price Index (PPI) exceeded expectations, and the core PPI also displayed an upward trend. Surprisingly, US Treasury bond yields took a dip, with the 10-year yield settling at 4.54%.

The Federal Reserve officials is currently grappling with internal disagreements. Some members support for maintaining high interest rates for an extended duration, and others want to raise them more quickly. However, this decision depends on how prices for things are changing - if they go up a lot, it could affect their choice. This Thursday, we will get more information about how prices are changing and how many people are asking for unemployment help. This will help us understand what the US dollar and the people who make decisions about money might do soon.

RBA's Interest Rate Hike Speculations Provide Tailwinds

Another key factor contributing to the Australian Dollar's strength is the growing speculation of an impending interest rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). The RBA has been carefully keeping an eye on economic conditions, and the idea of adjusting monetary policy to address increasing inflation is gaining traction. The current rate sits at 4.10%, and there is growing anticipation that it could move higher.

A potential interest rate hike would make the AUD more attractive to investors seeking higher yields, thus contributing to its strength. This anticipation is one of the key factors supporting the AUD/USD pair. However, it's essential to watch for developments from the RBA and their future monetary policy decisions.

Geopolitical Tensions and Their Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Furthermore, the losses in the AUD/USD pair were further bolstered by the geopolitical tensions, especially those arising from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. These geopolitical issues tend to undermine rikier assests like Australian dollar and disrupt the currency pair's direction.

Conversely, the geopolitical conflicts often boost demand for commodities, particularly energy and gold. Australia is a key player in the global commodities market, and the increased demand for these resources is positively impacting the Australian Dollar.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

On October 12, the AUD/USD pair exhibited a modest uptrend, marking a 0.08% gain to position itself at 0.64205, as captured in the 4-hour timeframe. The pivot point for the currency pair stands decisively at 0.6372.

In the realm of resistance, the AUD/USD faces an immediate barrier at 0.6457, with subsequent levels at 0.6530 and then at 0.6617. On the downside, the first line of defense is at 0.6296, followed by supports at 0.6212 and further to 0.6138.

Diving into the technical indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 57, signifying a somewhat bullish sentiment without being in the overbought territory. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a reading of -0.00008 against its signal line at 0.00135. This suggests a potential for downward momentum, although it's marginal and might require careful observation. Notably, the pair is trading just above its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) valued at 0.6392, hinting at a short-term bullish trajectory.

In wrapping up, the AUD/USD portrays a bullish sentiment as long as it remains above the 0.6392 mark. However, given the close proximity of the current price to this threshold and mixed technical signals, traders should exercise caution. The near-term forecast anticipates the pair testing the immediate resistance levels, but market participants would do well to closely monitor global economic events and technical indicators to make informed decisions.

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