Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair prolonged its upward trend and remained well bid around 1.0890 marks during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, the reason for its bullish bias can be attributed to the retreating US Dollar, prompted by the downbeat economic data from the United States on Tuesday. Meanwhile, there is no news from the European Central Bank (ECB) about potential rate decisions post-summer. Thereby, the traders await the upcoming releases of economic data from the US and Eurozone, seeking a clearer understanding of inflation scenarios in both economies.

US Economic Updates and Fed Outlook

Elsewhere, US Consumer Confidence for August dipped to 106.1 from the earlier 114.0, missing the expected 116.0. Also, in July, US JOLTS Job Openings dropped to 8.827 million, down from 9.165 million prior, contrary to the expected rise to 9.465 million. Market watchers predict the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will delay rate hikes until its September meeting. The CME's FedWatch Tool shows only an 11.5% chance of a rate hike in September.

Thus, this stance is putting downward pressure on the US dollar's value. Furthermore, at the Jackson Hole Symposium, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said their decision on the next rate hike will rely on economic data.

As a result, EUR/USD traders are waiting for new economic data from the US and Eurozone to better understand inflation in both regions. They're especially interested in US ADP Employment Change and preliminary Gross Domestic Product Annualized (Q2), which will come out later. In the Eurozone, they're keeping an eye on Consumer Sentiment, the German preliminary Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices.

Eurozone Data and EUR/USD Outlook

At home, Spain saw a 2.6% rise in August's yearly inflation, while Italy's Consumer Confidence slipped to 106.5 and fell to -16 in the broader euro area. Later, all eyes will be on Germany's advanced inflation data this month. This information will likely impact the EUR/USD pair. If Germany's inflation exceeds expectations, the euro might strengthen against the US dollar. Conversely, if the figures disappoint, it could put downward pressure on the euro relative to the dollar.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair has successfully reached our anticipated target at 1.0880, encountering strong resistance at this level. This resistance is a result of the convergence of the previously breached 61.8% Fibonacci correction level with the resistance of the corrective bearish channel. Additionally, clear negative signals have emerged through the stochastic indicator.

Consequently, we hold the view that there is a valid possibility of a bearish rebound, leading to potential negative price movement in the upcoming trading sessions. The focus is on testing the 1.0785 level as a primary target. It's noteworthy that surpassing the levels of 1.0880 to 1.0890 would negate the projected decline, potentially allowing for further gains toward the 1.0955 region. The projected trading range for today is anticipated to lie between the support at 1.0785 and the resistance at 1.0925.

The anticipated trend for today is bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The Gold price (XAU/USD) continued its positive momentum for the second day in a row on Tuesday. It reached around $1,925 to $1,926 during the Asian session, marking a two-week high after hitting a similar peak the day before. However, the decrease in US Treasury bond yields is pulling the US Dollar (USD) down from its nearly three-month high. Hence, this is encouraging some investors to move towards Gold. Moreover, there's optimism about China providing more economic support through fiscal and monetary policies, which is also adding to the positive outlook for Gold buyers.

US Dollar Pauses Amid Shifting Yield Dynamics and Rate Hike Speculations

The broad-based US dollar is taking a break from its recent strong position as the yield on the 10-year US government bond, which reflects borrowing costs, pulls back from its highest point since 2007. However, some people are expecting more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve (Fed), which could stop the US bond yields and the dollar from falling too much. These expectations got stronger after Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently talked about possibly raising rates to manage inflation. Since the US economy is strong, the Fed might keep lifting rates. This could make investors less eager to heavily invest in gold.

China's Supportive Measures Impacting the Gold Market

Moreover, the Gold market is being influenced by positive expectations of more backing from China. They're considering measures like cutting reserve requirements sooner, which could boost the economy by adding more money. This is crucial for the world's top copper importer. Also, Chinese officials are discussing giving extra financial support to their slower-recovering economy after COVID-19. All these factors together are keeping Gold buyers hopeful and shaping the way the precious metal market is moving.

Key Data Watch: US Reports and China's Impact on Gold

Looking forward, investors will keep an eye on significant US data this week, particularly the jobs report on Friday. This information could strongly influence Gold's movement. Meanwhile, worries about China's economy may continue to boost the safe-haven appeal of Gold and prevent major price drops. Investors are also paying attention to the US Consumer Confidence Index and JOLTS Job Openings data for potential short-term opportunities.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

Gold's valuation demonstrates a pronounced upward momentum, inching closer to our initial projected target of $1,929. Upon closer examination of the trendlines, we observe the formation of a 'double bottom' pattern, which typically serves as a robust bullish signal. This lends significant weight to the likelihood of the price not just reaching, but potentially eclipsing the aforementioned target, setting its sights directly on the subsequent goal of $1,945.20.

Given the current market dynamics and the supportive role of the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) - which consistently underpins the price - we maintain an optimistic forecast for gold in the near term. However, it's worth noting that any dip below the $1,913.15 threshold could derail this bullish trajectory, pivoting the market sentiment towards a potential decline. For the day, we anticipate the price to fluctuate between a support level of $1,913 and a resistance cap at $1,945.

Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment has been up and down recently. At the beginning of the week, things looked positive, but now on early Tuesday, people are becoming more cautious. Traders are trying to figure out if this positive feeling will last, especially because there isn't much important news today in Asia and not many big economic updates.

Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are not showing a clear direction and remains dicey around 4,445 points. This comes after a couple of days of gains. At the same time, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond, which is an important indicator of borrowing costs and market confidence, is staying around 4.19%.

Central Bankers' Challenges and Rate Hike Uncertainty

It's important to mention that central bankers worldwide are facing challenges due to mixed economic data and recession worries. Traders are paying close attention, especially after policymakers discussed their cautious strategies at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. Jerome Powell, who leads the US Federal Reserve, is considering raising interest rates to control borrowing. However, decisions depend on the economy's performance, creating uncertainty. Another banker, Loretta Mester, suggests raising rates, possibly not immediately in September. Chances of rate increases in November have improved recently according to predictive tools.

Hence, this news has left market sentiment uncertain as central bankers grapple with mixed data and recession concerns. Traders are attentive due to potential rate hikes and economic uncertainties discussed at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Market Impact: Trade Talks, IMF Meeting, and Economic Sentiment

Besides this, there's mixed news about US-China trade talks, and the IMF's leader plans to meet China's leaders. This is making people more cautious about taking risks in the market. China's effort to boost its economy by reducing stock trading costs aligns with the mood at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where no surprising economic decisions were made. As a result, the US dollar is slightly weaker versus other currencies. This news is making the market more cautious due to mixed US-China trade talk updates and the IMF's interest in China. China's economy-boosting move and uneventful Jackson Hole Symposium have slightly weakened the US dollar.

Looking forward, traders will focus on Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for September, followed by the US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for August. More importantly, attention will be on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for July and August's Nonfarm Payrolls. These indicators will play a significant role in shaping market trends.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

Upon examining the technical aspects of the S&P 500, it currently indicates fluctuations around the 4430 level. Analyzing the four-hour chart, the S&P 500 has rebounded from a significant support level of 4350. The manner in which the candles have closed suggests that the S&P 500 carries potential upside momentum.

It is nearing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level situated around 4440. Should the S&P 500 maintain its position above this level, it will likely encounter the next significant resistance at approximately 4475. Further upwards, another major resistance aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, amplified by a 61.8% extension. Conversely, if the S&P 500 drops below the 4400 level, subsequent support can be expected at 4450 and 4335.

The pivotal focus remains on the crucial support level of 4400, which is also today's pivot point. A stance above this level indicates a probable continuation of the bullish trend, while a position below may suggest further selling pressure.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward trend for a second day, trading around 1.2620 on Tuesday in Asia. However, the reason for its upward rally can be attributed to the modest US Dollar downfall. This, along with hawkish remarks by Bank of England (BoE) Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, underpins the British Pound and provides a modest lift to the GBP/USD currency pair.

China's Market Boost, Hawkish Comments, and GBP/USD Dynamics

It is worth noting that China's decision to lower stock trading charges aims to help its market and rebuild trust among investors. This has made the US Dollar weaker, following its recent strong performance. The British Pound is benefiting from hawkish comments by Bank of England's Deputy Governor Ben Broadbent, supporting the GBP/USD pair.

In the meantime, Broadbent's remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium suggest a cautious approach to monetary policy due to ongoing price effects. Despite recession concerns, markets expect the BoE to raise rates less than initially thought, with limited further increases anticipated after September's expected hike.

Fed Chair Powell's Impact and Market Outlook

Moreover, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell solidified market expectations for one more rate hike this year. Powell mentioned on Friday that due to persistent inflation, the Fed could raise rates again while being cautious about tightening too much. This supports higher US Treasury bond yields and, alongside global economic concerns, could prevent significant USD declines and restrict additional gains for the GBP/USD pair.

Looking ahead, investors will stay attentive as they await relevant market-moving data on Monday, while UK banks remain closed for the Summer Bank Holiday. The GBP/USD pair's recent drop below the 100-day Simple Moving Average indicates a potential downward direction.

GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair has demonstrated a notable upward trajectory, now challenging the 1.2625 threshold. Its current posture above this level augments the prospects of further appreciation, laying the groundwork for an intraday bullish momentum. We anticipate a potential trajectory towards the 1.2725 region in the near future.

However, an inability to sustain above the 1.2625 mark might curb the anticipated rise, potentially reversing the trend to a decline.

Today's forecasted trading band is set between a support of 1.2560 and a resistance at 1.2725.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the expectations of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve in 2023 and the prevailing risk-on sentiment, the price of gold (XAU/USD) has continued its upward rally, commencing the new week on a bullish note, hovering around the $1,915 level. This upward trajectory in gold's value seems to be closely tied to the weakening US dollar, which has started the week on a more subdued trajectory, retracting from its peak level since early June. This, in turn, is viewed as a significant factor bolstering the price of gold. A weaker Greenback typically benefits US Dollar-denominated commodities, such as XAU/USD.

As of now, XAU/USD is trading around the $1,916 mark, with gains of slightly less than 0.10% for the day. However, it remains below the peak it reached two weeks ago, recorded last Thursday. Looking ahead, traders appear to be exercising caution and refraining from making substantial bids in anticipation of critical US macroeconomic releases scheduled for this week, with particular attention being given to the highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report set to be released on Friday.

Gold Prices Supported by Weaker Dollar, but Fed's Rate Hike Concerns Linger

The broad-based US dollar started the week on a weaker note, stepping back from its highest level since early June. This initially provided support for gold prices (XAU/USD), as commodities like gold often benefit from a weaker dollar. However, the confidence in the gold market is lessened by concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's intentions to raise interest rates as a measure to control inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently made remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, suggesting that the Fed might consider raising interest rates soon. This has made investors cautious, as higher interest rates can make assets like bonds more appealing compared to gold, which does not offer interest yields.

The market is analyzing Powell's statements to imply a potential 25 basis points rate increase by the end of the year. This expectation is boosting US Treasury bond yields and, consequently, lending support to the US dollar. As a result, while the weaker dollar is providing some support to gold prices, the possibility of further interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve is preventing traders from making substantial bullish bets on gold. They are awaiting further developments in the Fed's strategy and how it might impact the broader financial landscape before making significant moves in the gold market.

China's Measures and Market Sentiment Impact on Gold

Moreover, the risk-on sentiment, fueled by China's recent measures, could limit gains in gold prices. China announced a reduction in stamp duty on stock trading to boost its market and investor confidence. The levy on stock trades will decrease from 0.1% to 0.05% starting August 28, the first cut since 2008. This supports a positive tone in equity markets and might discourage bullish bets on XAU/USD.

Looking ahead, investors will closely monitor the gold market. With a quiet Monday in terms of significant US economic news, gold's performance will depend on the US dollar and market sentiment. Expect limited fluctuations until pivotal US data, especially the Non-Farm Payrolls report on Friday, is released.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

Gold prices made an effort to surpass the $1913.15 mark, yet concluded last Friday's session above this threshold. This sustains our optimistic forecast, bolstered by the positive trajectory indicated by the stochastic, as well as the upward pressure provided by the EMA50. Our projected price milestones commence at $1929.00, extending up to $1945.20.

Conversely, it's pivotal to highlight that a dip below the $1913.15 mark could disrupt this bullish outlook, steering the price towards a renewed downtrend.

For today, the anticipated price fluctuation is predicted to oscillate between a support of $1900.00 and a resistance of $1935.00.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the European Central Bank's (ECB) adoption of a more hawkish stance, the EUR/USD pair is still struggling. While it initially managed to breach the 1.0800 level once again, it concluded the week in the red for the fifth consecutive time. This means that even though the ECB is adoption a hawkish stance, the Euro is not gaining much ground against other currencies.

However, the reason for its bearish trajectory can be attributed to the heightened expectations of another interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve in the year 2023. This development has pushed the US dollar higher, subsequently contributing to the losses observed in the EUR/USD pair.

ECB's Inflation Focus and Rate Hike Caution: Potential Impact on EUR/USD Pair

It is worth noting that during the Jackson Hole Symposium, ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized their ongoing battle with inflation. She underlined the essential role of central banks in maintaining economic stability by keeping interest rates at elevated levels until the targeted 2% inflation rate is achieved. Simultaneously, ECB's Martins Kazaks cautioned against prematurely stopping rate hikes, emphasizing potential risks.

In simpler terms, the ECB is prioritizing the prevention of rapid price escalation, which is why they are opting to maintain higher interest rates for the time being. Thus, this news holds the potential to exert a positive influence on the EUR/USD pair.

Fed Chairman Powell Signals Potential Interest Rate Increase: Impact on EUR/USD Trend

Across the ocean at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated their readiness for more interest rate increases if needed. This stance, driven by strong growth and job conditions, could make the US dollar more attractive against the Euro, particularly if data remains positive. However, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker disagreed, favoring stable rates to gauge their economic impact.

Meanwhile, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester supported higher rates to curb inflation, citing an improving economy. Furthermore, the UoM's Consumer Confidence Index dropped in August, potentially strengthening the US dollar further, as Powell's willingness to raise rates based on growth could enhance the dollar's appeal. This contributed to the EUR/USD pair's downward trend.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair managed to extend its gaining streak and remained well bid around 0.6420 marks. However the reason for its upward rally can be tied to the China rolled out new measures over the weekend to draw investors back into its battered stock markets, which, along with the better-than-expected domestic data, provided a modest lift to the Australian Dollar (AUD) on the first day of a new week. Apart from this, a positive tone around the equity markets drags the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) away from its highest level since early June touched on Friday and offers additional support to the AUD/USD pair.

China's Market Measures and Domestic Data Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, China introduced new measures over the weekend to attract investors back to its struggling stock markets. This, coupled with better-than-expected domestic data, gave a slight boost to the Australian Dollar (AUD) as the new week began. Notably, China's finance ministry announced a reduction in the stamp duty on stock trading from 0.1% to 0.05%, the first decrease since 2008. Apart from this, the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) revealed a 0.5% rise in Retail Sales for July, surpassing the anticipated 0.3% increase and recovering from the previous month's 0.8% decline.

Consequently, this development holds the potential to positively influence the AUD/USD pair. China's market measures and the robust domestic data may enhance investor confidence in the Australian Dollar, potentially contributing to its strength against the US Dollar.

USD Trends, Fed Expectations, and the Impact on AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, the positive sentiment in the stock markets is pulling the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) down from its recent peak in early June, providing added support to the AUD/USD pair. However, the USD's decline is modest due to growing expectations of the Federal Reserve (Fed) tightening its policies.

Investors are anticipating another 25 basis points rate hike before the year ends, a view reinforced by Fed Chair Jerome Powell's hawkish comments at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Powell's statement indicated that the Fed might need to further raise rates to manage persistent inflation concerns.

Consequently, this situation could impact the AUD/USD pair. The upbeat equity market mood and the corrective USD dip might enhance the Australian Dollar's attractiveness, potentially causing it to gain strength against the US Dollar. Nevertheless, the USD's potential for more rate hikes could limit the AUD's gains.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair is demonstrating resilience around the 0.6400 juncture, initiating the session with an ascendant bias. It is attempting to distance itself from this benchmark, gearing up for a potential bullish surge with a tentative target in the vicinity of 0.6545.

Our analysis postulates a bullish orientation for today, corroborated by auspicious indications from the stochastic oscillator. Transcending the 0.6450 marker could further facilitate this upward trajectory. Conversely, any decline below the 0.6400 level might disrupt this bullish thesis, potentially reverting the pair to its prevailing bearish trend. For the day, we forecast a trading range delineated by a support level at 0.6380 and a resistance point at 0.6480.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite concerns about a potential deeper global economic downturn, the Gold Price (XaAU/USD) failed to extend its four-day winning streak and saw a decline during the Asian session on Friday. The XAU/USD is trading just below the $1,915 mark, marking a decrease of over 0.15% for the day. However, the reason behind this downward movement can be attributed to the Federal Reserve's hawkish outlook. This outlook has led to an increase in US Treasury bond yields and propelled the USD Index (DXY) to its highest level since June 6. Consequently, this has prompted some investors to divert their funds away from Gold.

On the flip side, concerns about severe global economic downturn are still prevalent. This is potentially providing some support to the precious metal, often sought as a safe-haven in times of economic uncertainty. This support may help limit the downside for gold, at least for the time being. Moving on, traders seem cautious to place any strong bid as they eagerly await Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's much-anticipated speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Fed's Impact on Gold: Hawkish Stance and Market Dynamics

Investors are closely watching the Federal Reserve for clues about interest rate hikes, which greatly affect the US Dollar's short-term value and, in turn, Gold prices. Despite recent sluggish US business activity, Fed officials have hinted at a potential 25 basis points rate increase this year. Boston Fed President Susan Collins suggests rates could stay steady with more hikes possible, ruling out rate cuts for now. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker emphasizes caution, waiting for inflation to drop before discussing rate cuts. Thus, this more hawkish stance has boosted US Treasury bond yields and the USD, pressuring Gold prices lower.

Gold Prices Supported Amid Global Economic Concerns

Across the ocean, worries about a global economic downturn could actually boost the value of precious metals like gold. This is because when the global economy looks shaky, people tend to invest in safe-haven assets like gold. Recently, there have been concerns about China's economy getting worse, and this is making people worried about a possible recession worldwide. These worries are making investors feel less confident, which is making stock markets less strong. Hence, this was seen as a key factor that helped the gold price to limit its losses.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The price of gold is currently experiencing a downward movement, testing the critical support level at $1,913.15. This decline is influenced by the negative reading on the stochastic indicator. It's worth noting that the stochastic indicator is gradually showing signs of positive momentum, which could potentially serve as a catalyst for the resumption of the bullish trend. The immediate targets for this upward movement are set at $1,929.00 and $1,945.20.

As a result, the scenario of a bullish trend remains in play. It's important to highlight that a breach below $1,913.15 would invalidate the anticipated upward movement and potentially lead to further price declines. The expected trading range for the current session is anticipated to be between the support level of $1,900.00 and the resistance level of $1,930.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has suceeded to extend its upward stance and risen to around 146.00 in early European trading, recovering from recent losses. However, this upward trend is partly due to mixed inflation data in Japan, which is keeping the Japanese Yen (JPY) under pressure. Furthermore, the JPY is facing concerns of immediate government intervention and a more dovish stance from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).

Apart from this, the USD/JPY pair has been boosted by strong US employment data, higher US Treasury yields, and uncertainty surrounding the US Federal Reserve's September policy tightening. These factors collectively contribute to the recent strength in the USD/JPY pair.

Tokyo's Lower-than-Expected Inflation and Its Impact on USD/JPY

According to recent data, consumer prices in Tokyo, Japan, rose less than anticipated in August. The Tokyo Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 2.9% annually, falling short of the expected 3.0% and down from 3.2% in the previous report. Meanwhile, Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) remained consistent at 4% whereas Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) declined to 2.8% against the market consensus of 2.9%. The index printed the 3% figure in July.

The lower-than-expected consumer price growth in Tokyo could weaken the Japanese yen. If inflation continues to lag, it may prompt the Bank of Japan to maintain its accommodative policies, potentially leading to a stronger USD/JPY pair as the US dollar gains relative strength.

Factors Pressuring Japanese Yen (JPY) and Impact on USD/JPY Pair

Moreover, the Japanese Yen remains under pressure due to the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) more cautious approach. The BoJ stands alone among central banks with its negative interest rates policy. Policymakers also stress the need for sustainable wage increases before they'll consider scaling back their substantial monetary support. These factors weigh on the USD/JPY pair, potentially favoring the US dollar.

USD Strength Spurs USD/JPY Pair Amid Fed and BoJ Influences

The broad-based US dollar regained its strength and rose sharply on the day. The US dollar, measured by the US Dollar Index (DXY), is currently around 104.20 before Fed Chair Powell’s speech. Meanwhile, the USD/JPY pair was also influenced by Bank of Japan (BoJ) Governor Kazuo Ueda’s upcoming speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Whereas, the strong US jobless claims data and mixed sentiment about US Federal Reserve policy support the USD/JPY rise. Plus, the pair benefits from higher US Treasury yields and concerns about China's economy affecting export ties with the US. This blend of factors contributes to the USD/JPY pair's recent strength.

USD/JPY - Technical analysis

The USD/JPY pair experienced a notable upward surge in the previous session, surpassing the 145.00 mark and currently reaching the 146.00 barrier. This movement has effectively halted the corrective bearish scenario, revitalizing the prospect of the primary bullish trend. The focus now shifts towards testing the recently established peak at 146.55, marking a forthcoming target. It is worth highlighting that a successful breach of this level would propel the price further, aiming for extended gains at 147.00 followed by 147.90.

Hence, the prevailing sentiment remains inclined towards a bullish bias today. However, it's crucial to acknowledge that a failure to surpass the 146.25 threshold could prompt a decline. This scenario could materialize after the formation of a third lower high, potentially guiding the price back to the corrective bearish trajectory.

The projected trading range for the current session is bounded by the support level at 145.30 and the resistance at 147.00.

Overall, the anticipated trend for today is bullish, but bearish below 146.500. 

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to maintain its recent upward trend and dipped back to around 1.0850 on Thursday. However, the reason for its downward trend can be attributed to the decline in business confidence to 96 in France during August, which added to the Euro's challenges and contributed to the EUR/USD pair declines.

Furthermore, the broad-based US dollar regained its strength, which was seen as another key factor that kept the EUR/USD pair lower. Looking forward, the market's attention is now focused on today's data releases, especially Initial Jobless Claims and Durable Goods Orders, which are anticipated to impact currency movements.

US Dollar Stability and Focus on Jackson Hole Symposium:

As mentioned above, the US Dollar has managed to find some stability after stepping back from its recent peak, which saw it reach around 104.00 earlier this week. The USD Index (DXY) is currently hovering around the 103.50 level, showing that there is still some uncertainty in the US financial markets. Looking ahead, all eyes are on the start of the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Investors are anticipating Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech on Friday. However, there is a renewed debate about the Fed's commitment to sticking with a more cautious monetary policy for an extended period. This discussion has arisen due to the surprising strength of the US economy, even though there has been some softening in the job market and recent reports of lower inflation.

The EUR/USD pair may experience increased volatility as investors closely monitor developments. If Powell signals a shift in the Fed's monetary stance, it could strengthen the US dollar, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair lower. However, any hints of continued caution from the Fed may support the euro, leading to a possible uptick in the pair's value.

ECB Divisions and Economic Data Impacting EUR/USD:

At the same time, there are disagreements within the European Central Bank (ECB) Council about whether to continue tightening measures beyond the summer. These internal divisions are causing worries about the strength of the Euro. On the economic data front, the eurozone had a relatively quiet period, with French Business Confidence dropping to 96 in August.

Meanwhile, in the US, investors are awaiting data on Initial Jobless Claims, the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, and July's Durable Goods Orders. These various factors collectively play a role in shaping the dynamics of the EUR/USD currency pair.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD currency pair is currently trading around the 1.0880 level, maintaining its position just below this level. Notably, the EMA50 intersects with this resistance, lending further reinforcement to its significance. Meanwhile, the stochastic indicator is displaying a clear loss of its positive momentum, signaling overbought conditions at present.

Given these circumstances, we are inclined to anticipate a bearish correction in the upcoming trading sessions, leading to a resumption of the prevailing bearish trend. It is noteworthy that our target for this movement is situated at 1.0785.

However, a breach of the 1.0880 level would negate the anticipated decline and potentially initiate a recovery, potentially resulting in further intraday gains. The projected trading range for today is positioned between the support level of 1.0770 and the resistance level of 1.0920.