Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair experienced a slight decline, reaching a low of 1.1173, but ultimately finished the day just below the 1.1200 level. The Euro managed to hold above 1.1200 for most of the morning, partly supported by European statistics.

The Eurozone's Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for June showed a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, in line with expectations. However, annual inflation in the European Union decreased from 7.1% in May to 6.4% in June.

Despite less-than-promising macroeconomic data from the US, financial markets maintained a sense of optimism during the American session. Building permits in June declined by 3.7%, while housing starts dropped by 8%.

The EUR/USD pair continued its pullback from the 1.1280 resistance level, reflecting the uncertain divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed).

Prior to Wednesday's European trading session, the pair traded around 1.1220, retracing from its highest level since February 2022. This movement in the Euro-dollar pair provides insights into the US Dollar's corrective bounce and the ECB's concerns amid volatile trading conditions.

According to Bloomberg, ECB officials are facing challenges in predicting the central bank's future actions. The report emphasizes the difficulty of explaining the July rate hike, with policymakers expressing different perspectives.

Unnamed officials cited by Bloomberg News state that the task is to avoid signaling either another rate hike or a pause.

The final readings of June's Eurozone inflation statistics and US housing market indicators, along with other risk factors, are likely to capture the attention of Euro traders.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair experienced negative trading yesterday and made an attempt to break the 1.1200 level. However, it later rebounded and remained above this level after finding support near 1.1170.

This keeps our bullish view intact, with further upward movement expected towards our next target at 1.1418.

The EMA50 indicator continues to provide support for the suggested bullish trend. To strengthen the positive outlook, a breakout above 1.1245 is necessary.

It is important to note that a break below 1.1200, followed by 1.1170, could exert corrective bearish pressure on the price, with initial targets around the 1.1105 area.

For today's trading, the expected range is between the support level at 1.1170 and the resistance level at 1.1310.

Daily Price Outlook

Despite experiencing a recent decline from its daily peak, the price of gold (XAU/USD) remains at a two-month high, benefitting from a weakening US Dollar and sluggish market conditions.

The positive factors supporting the gold price include news from China that is supportive of prices, as well as low yields. Additionally, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) is taking steps to ease rules on foreign investment and is willing to reduce geopolitical tensions with the US if certain conditions are met, which will likely contribute to the strength of the gold price.

Conversely, there are expectations for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to adjust its policy due to weak US housing and consumer expenditure data, leading to calls for a change in interest rates.

Discussions surrounding the positive outlook for US banks and the BRICS countries' interest in using gold-backed currency further bolster the bullish sentiment for XAU/USD. The BRICS countries include Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.

Recent concerns from major central banks about the potential for higher interest rates, coupled with a lack of optimism in the Asia-Pacific market, have been driving demand for gold.

This trend is particularly noticeable ahead of the upcoming monetary policy meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which is scheduled to take place the following week.

The gold price forecast for XAU/USD indicates a fresh two-month high and suggests the potential for further appreciation. After a brief pause, the price of gold has regained momentum and reached new highs during the Asian session, currently trading in the range of $1,984 to $1,985.

This upward trend is expected to continue based on the steady upward movement observed over the past three weeks or so.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

The price of gold has successfully surpassed the level of $1,977.25, closing the previous four-hour candlestick above it. This development indicates the potential for a continued bullish trend in the short-term and intraday scenarios. As a result, new target levels are now in focus, beginning at $2,000.00 and followed by $2,016.90.

The upward movement is supported by a bullish channel, which receives significant reinforcement from the EMA50 indicator. However, if the price breaks below the level of $1,977.25, the anticipated rise may be halted, leading to a potential reversal and a shift towards a decline.

For today's trading, it is expected that the support level will be around $1,970.00, while resistance is likely to be encountered at $2,005.00.

Overall, the outlook for today suggests a bullish trend in the gold market, but it is important to monitor the price action closely for any potential reversals or shifts in the market sentiment.

Daily Price Outlook

The upward momentum in EUR/USD continues, with the intraday bias favoring further gains. The ongoing rise from 1.0634 is expected to lead to a retest of the 1.1094 high. A decisive breakout above this level would signal the continuation of the larger upward trend from 0.9534 to 1.1273, based on Fibonacci levels.

EUR/USD experiences a pullback from the 1.1280 resistance as the divergence between the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) becomes uncertain. Prior to Wednesday's European trading session, the currency pair declined from its recent peak, settling around 1.1220.

This decline can be attributed to both a corrective bounce in the US Dollar and concerns surrounding the ECB's actions amid volatile market conditions.

Bloomberg reports that ECB officials are facing difficulties in forecasting the central bank's future actions, particularly in explaining the rate hike in July.

Policymakers hold different perspectives, and striking the right balance between signaling further hikes and signaling a pause proves to be a challenge.

In contrast, a recent Reuters poll suggests that the anticipated 25 basis point rate hike by the Fed in July will likely be the final one in the current tightening cycle. However, positive June results from the US Retail Sales Control Group indicate the possibility of further interest rate increases by the Fed.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), which had previously recovered from a 15-month low near 99.55, has seen a modest increase to around 100.05, supported by these expectations.

Eurozone inflation data for June and US housing market indicators for the same month, along with other risk factors, may influence Euro traders in the near term.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently consolidating within a sideways pattern, as depicted on the chart. It is noteworthy that the stochastic indicator is displaying positive momentum and entering the positive zone, potentially signaling a resumption of the bullish trend. Our primary target for the upward movement remains at 1.1418.

Consequently, our outlook for the immediate future continues to favor a bullish trend. Nevertheless, it is essential to remain mindful that a breach below the 1.1200 level may trigger a corrective bearish phase, with initial targets at 1.1170 and further extending to 1.1105, before any subsequent attempt to rally.

The anticipated trading range for today is projected to lie between the support level at 1.1170 and the resistance level at 1.1310.

Daily Price Outlook

Bitcoin maintains its position above $30,000 as Cathie Wood provides reassurance and boosts confidence in BTC. Following a brief decline, the price of bitcoin has rebounded and reestablished its consolidation above the $30,000 threshold.

This recovery is attributed to recent remarks made by Cathie Wood, a well-known American investor and self-proclaimed cryptocurrency advocate. Wood's positive comments have contributed to bitcoin's steady performance above $30,000.

In a Bloomberg interview, Wood revised her long-term projection for bitcoin's market value, estimating it to reach $1.5 million by 2030. She cites growing trust in BTC within her company, Ark Invest, as the driving force behind this outlook.

Wood also acknowledges bitcoin's resilience during the March market turmoil when regional banks failed and stocks experienced significant downturns, highlighting its role as a safe-haven asset.

Meanwhile, the overall cryptocurrency market experienced a 0.8% decline in value to $1.20 trillion, with Bitcoin's performance showing a 0.9% decrease and Ethereum's dropping by 1.7%. Despite these fluctuations, bitcoin maintains its position above $30,000 while facing a crucial juncture.

BTC/USD - Technical analysis

Bitcoin's price is making an upward attempt from the $29,500 level, with the potential to gain bullish momentum if it surpasses the resistance at $30,200.

The recent price movement followed a bearish path, breaking below the $30,200 pivot level and testing support at $29,500. However, a low has been formed around $29,500, leading to a fresh increase in price.

If the price manages to break the trend line and surpass the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the downward move, starting from the swing high at $30,448 to the low at $29,500, the first major resistance will be encountered near $30,200.

A close above this level could initiate a fresh increase, targeting the next major resistance at $30,500 and potentially reaching the $31,000 resistance zone.

However, if Bitcoin fails to clear the $30,200 resistance, further downside movement may occur. Immediate support can be found around the $29,650 level, followed by a major support level near $29,500.

A break below this level could lead to bearish momentum, potentially pushing the price towards the $29,200 support zone. Any additional losses might bring the price down towards the $28,750 level in the near term.

Daily Price Outlook

The US Dollar has been steadily rebounding from a 15-month low, while the price of gold (XAU/USD) has retreated from its recent eight-week high and is now trading near its intraday low. Risk factors stemming from China may also exert downward pressure on the XAU/USD market.

It is worth noting that despite negative US Treasury bond yields, gold prices have not seen a significant boost as market participants await new information to support the risk-on sentiment observed in the previous day.

However, the stand taken the day before was supported by expectations of increased profits for US banks due to higher interest rates. Moreover, concerns surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy shift following the 0.25% rate hike in July contributed to the rise in the XAU/USD price.

The recent decline in gold prices can be attributed to positive US Retail Sales data and anticipation that the Fed may maintain higher interest rates for a longer duration or announce multiple rate hikes.

Considering the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) monetary policy meeting and a light economic calendar, risk factors can provide some excitement for XAU/USD traders.

Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD consolidates near a multi-week high, just below the $1,980 level.

During the Asian session on Wednesday, the price of gold remained within a narrow trading range, consolidating its significant gains from the previous day and hovering around the $1,984 level, which represents an approximately eight-week high. Currently, XAU/USD is trading slightly below the $1,980 level and appears poised to continue its recent stable ascent observed over the past three weeks.

A weakening US Dollar is expected to provide support to the price of gold.

Despite growing consensus that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adopt a more dovish stance, the US Dollar (USD) has failed to stage a meaningful recovery from its lowest level since April 2022, reached on Tuesday. This suggests that the price of gold should continue to benefit.

The widely anticipated 25 basis point (bps) rate hike by the Fed at its upcoming policy meeting on July 25-26 did not have as pronounced of an impact as previously anticipated, strengthening expectations of a more cautious approach by the central bank.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices settle around the $1,977.25 level, encountering strong resistance at this point. We await positive momentum to drive the price above this level and toward our next targets, starting at $2,000.00 and extending to $2,016.90.

The EMA50 continues to support the anticipated bullish trend, influenced by the previously completed double bottom pattern.

It is important to note that if the price consolidates around the $1,977.25 level despite bullish attempts, it may face intraday downward pressure, targeting the $1,945.20 level before any new upward movement.

The projected trading range for today is between support at $1,960.00 and resistance at $1,995.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The Gold Price (XAU/USD) is experiencing positive momentum as traders reassess concerns related to China, leading to an improved risk-on sentiment.

The US Dollar's recovery since late Friday has been short-lived, coupled with lackluster data, which has strengthened the demand for Gold. Consequently, Gold buyers are now gearing up for a potential challenge to surpass the significant $2,000 level.

Several positive factors are contributing to cautious optimism in the market. China's ability to defend its economic growth and signs of improving relations with the US are among the catalysts supporting the sentiment.

Despite positive consumer-focused figures on Friday, the US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index failed to impress Dollar bulls.

Additionally, expectations of further stimulus measures from China and challenges faced by restrictive monetary policies are providing support for the Gold Price.

In the coming days, market participants will closely monitor US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for June, as they will play a crucial role in shaping the Federal Reserve's rate hike trajectory beyond July. These data releases could also have an impact on the movements of the Gold Price.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices tested the $1,945.20 level and exhibited a bullish bounce, indicating a potential resumption of the anticipated bullish movement on an intraday basis. The initial target for this upward wave is set at the $1,977.25 level.

The presence of the EMA50 provides support for the expected rise, which is further reinforced by the double bottom pattern observed on the chart. These factors increase the likelihood of surpassing the aforementioned target and heading towards the $2,000.00 level, followed by the $2,016.90 area as the next significant milestones.

As long as the price remains above the $1,945.20 level, the bullish trend scenario remains valid and in play. A breach of this level, followed by a drop below the $1,935.10 level, would raise concerns and potentially negate the bullish outlook.

Today's expected trading range is between support at $1,945.00 and resistance at $1,980.00.

Overall, the outlook for today remains bullish, with the potential for further upward movement in gold prices.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY has experienced a decline from 145.06 to a low of 138.75 so far today, with the next target being the 137.90 level, which has transitioned from resistance to support. The pair remains below 139.00, holding onto mild losses, and is influenced by sluggish yields ahead of the release of US Retail Sales data.

  During the early hours of Tuesday in Europe, USD/JPY continued its downward trajectory, reaching an intraday low of 138.50. Consequently, in a relatively calm market environment, the pair retraces the corrective recovery seen after hitting a two-month low last Friday.

Despite mixed emotions surrounding the anticipated US Retail Sales and Industrial Production data for June, the return of Japanese traders from vacation did not dampen market volatility.

The recent weakness in the risk-sensitive USD/JPY pair reflects the market's cautious optimism as concerns over the US-China conflict have eased in response to recent efforts by Washington to improve relations with Beijing through regular visits.

The upcoming Fed rate hike in July and divergent concerns about the future actions of central banks worldwide continue to influence traders' sentiment towards the USD/JPY pair.

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading within a rising wedge pattern, as indicated on the chart. In order to establish a bearish momentum and resume the corrective downtrend, the price needs to break below the support line of this pattern at 138.50.

This would potentially push the price lower towards the initial targets at 137.35 and further extend to 135.55 upon surpassing the previous level.

Considering the negative readings from key technical indicators, we maintain our bearish outlook for the near future.

However, if the price manages to breach above 139.17, it would halt the current downward pressure and potentially lead to an attempt to regain the primary bullish trend.

For today's trading, the anticipated range is between support at 137.60 and resistance at 139.17.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD continues to experience upward momentum, with the intraday bias remaining positive. The ongoing rise from 1.0634 is expected to lead to a retest of the 1.1094 high.

As the focus shifts to US Retail Sales data, the EUR/USD has exhibited volatile trading above the key resistance level of 1.1200. Market participants are eagerly awaiting the release of US Retail Sales figures for June, which has resulted in sideways movement for the currency pair.

Caution among investors is reflected in the losses seen in S&P500 futures during the Tokyo session, as the second-quarter earnings season begins. Concerns over the Federal Reserve's more aggressive policy tightening and strict credit standards in the retail banking sector have weighed on US stocks. This has led to speculation that corporate earnings may remain volatile in the coming period.

With Eurozone inflation at record highs, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to conclude its rate-hiking cycle after July. The Euro has gained significant strength, particularly as core inflation, excluding volatile food and oil prices, stands at 5.4%, surpassing the ECB's target of 2%.

However, economists at Nordea suggest that the ECB still sees a need for caution and tightening measures. While another rate hike in July seems likely, it is expected to be the final one in the current cycle.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently trading in a sideways manner within a tight range, as indicated on the chart. It is noteworthy that the stochastic indicator is showing signs of improvement, hinting at a potential shift towards positive momentum.

This positive momentum could potentially support the continuation of the main bullish trend, with the next target set at 1.1275.

Hence, our previously optimistic outlook remains intact and valid for the near future, with the support of the EMA50. It should be noted that surpassing the targeted level may extend the bullish wave towards 1.1418.

However, if the price breaks below 1.1200, a temporary intraday bearish correction may occur before the upward movement resumes.

Daily Price Outlook

XAU/USD loses upward momentum above $1,950 following mixed Chinese data.

The gold price faces challenges in gaining momentum and continues its decline from the $1,965 level seen on Friday. After conflicting economic indicators from China, the precious metal is currently trading around $1,950 during the Asian session.

Despite this, positive US consumer confidence results led to a rebound in the US Dollar from its lowest point since April 2022, contributing to the decline in gold prices on Friday.

The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index showed an increase from 64.4 in June to 72.6, surpassing the market's forecast of 65.5.

Additionally, the Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a 0.1% rise, lower than the previous 0.9%, and US consumer prices increased by 3.0% year over year, down from the previous 4.0%.

Market participants anticipate a less aggressive monetary policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed) following the expected interest rate hike in the July 26 meeting. This projection may limit the US Dollar's strength and the decline in gold prices.

As the Fed enters its blackout period ahead of the July 25-26 meeting, market participants will closely observe US data releases for further guidance.

The upcoming Empire State Manufacturing Index and June's Retail Sales MoM figures will be crucial in determining the short-term direction of the US Dollar and the future trajectory of gold prices.

A slight decline in US equity futures could provide support to the safe-haven precious metal and help limit the downward movement, at least temporarily.

Market participants are closely monitoring the release of Chinese macroeconomic data, which has the potential to impact risk sentiment and boost the price of gold.

However, based on the previous fundamental backdrop, the XAU/USD pair is expected to have an upward bias, and any declines are likely to be viewed as buying opportunities and may ease in the near term.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices show a slight negative movement, potentially testing the key support level at $1945.20. It is worth noting that the EMA50 intersects with this level, providing additional strength. The stochastic indicator indicates clear positive momentum.

Therefore, there is a valid possibility for the expected bullish trend to resume on an intraday basis, with a target of $1977.25.

This prediction is influenced by the presence of a double bottom pattern on the chart. However, if the price breaks below $1945.20, followed by $1935.10, the anticipated rise will be halted, and a decline may occur.

Daily Price Outlook

USD/JPY has witnessed a decline from 145.06 to a low of 138.75 so far today, with the next target being the support turned resistance at 137.90. The pair remains vulnerable to testing the 50% Fibonacci retracement support near 137.40.

Meanwhile, GBP/JPY has rebounded from around 181.00 as anticipation builds for consecutive interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE). The market expects the BoE to announce a second substantial rate hike at its upcoming monetary policy meeting in August, which has generated buying interest in the currency pair.

Previously, investors were expecting a modest 25 basis points increase when BoE Governor Andrew Bailey surprised the market with a 50 basis points hike to 5% in June. The sudden rise in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) headline and the record high core inflation of 7.1% prompted the central bank to implement a significant rate hike.

Looking ahead, investors are eagerly awaiting the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) interest rate decision, scheduled for next week. Seisaku Kameda, a former senior economist at the BoJ, suggested that the central bank is unlikely to change its interest rate policy and will likely maintain its economic projections for 2024 and 2025.

USD/JPY - Technical analysis

The USD/JPY pair experienced a strong support level at 137.35, leading to a noticeable upward rebound and a subsequent test of the key resistance level at 139.17.

However, it is worth mentioning that the price failed to break above this level and has started to show signs of consolidation.

This indicates a potential resumption of the correctional bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, with a target of revisiting the support at 137.35. Breaking below this level would further push the price towards the next correctional target at 135.55.

The current negative overlap of the stochastic indicator reinforces the likelihood of a resumption of negative trades today, supporting the overall bearish bias unless there is a breach of the resistance level at 139.17 and a sustained hold above it.