Daily Price Outlook

The price of gold saw an increase during the Asian session on Tuesday, rebounding from a one-week low experienced the previous day. Currently trading near $1,964, it shows a 0.14% rise for the day. Several factors contribute to this rise in the safe-haven asset.

Investors are closely monitoring key central bank meetings this week due to concerns about a potential global economic downturn and escalating tensions between the US and China, the world's two largest economies. 

Poor reports on business activity in the US, UK, and Euro Zone in July have heightened worries about a worldwide economic slowdown, leading to a surge in demand for safe-haven assets, including precious metals.

The US Dollar is also experiencing a decline of -0.11% today, providing additional support to the XAU/USD pair. However, its potential for further gains is limited ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy meeting set to begin on Tuesday. 

The Fed is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points during this meeting. Investors will closely scrutinize the statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the meeting for any hints regarding future rate hikes, which will significantly impact the value of the USD and consequently influence the price of gold.

In addition to the FOMC decision, significant US macroeconomic data, such as the Advance Q2 GDP report and the Core PCE Price Index, are scheduled for release this week. Furthermore, the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday and the Bank of Japan's monetary policy statement on Friday will also have a notable influence on the short-term trajectory of gold prices.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices experienced a downtrend and attempted to surpass the EMA50, but eventually settled around it. The current stochastic positivity influenced the fluctuations, while investors await negative momentum to push the price back into the bearish bias, with the primary target at $1,945.20.

We maintain a bearish view for the short term unless the price manages to rally and breach the level of $1,977.25, sustaining a position above it. Such a breakthrough could lead the price back to the main bullish trajectory. However, if the price breaks the support at $1,945.20, it could lead to further losses, reaching $1,913.15.

The expected trading range for today is between the support level of $1,945.00 and the resistance level of $1,977.00.

Daily Price Outlook

In the last 24 hours, the S&P 500 index experienced a notable surge of 0.4%, primarily fueled by a rally in energy stocks and overall positive market sentiment. The increase was further supported by better-than-expected quarterly results from major tech companies and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's imminent decision.

Energy stocks led the gains, with companies like Halliburton, Occidental Petroleum, and Chevron posting notable increases. Chevron's record quarterly production in the Permian Basin contributed to the positive sentiment, as it confirmed improved well performance and projects remaining on track, according to UBS.

Regional banks also saw a rally, boosted by stabilizing deposit data from companies like KeyCorp, Huntington Bancshares, and Citizens Financial Group, which instilled confidence in the financial sector.

Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings reports from tech giants such as Alphabet and Microsoft, scheduled for Tuesday, followed by Meta on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. Positive themes in the tech sector, including strength in cloud services, AI monetization, and stabilization in digital advertising, have set an optimistic tone for tech stocks ahead of the earnings season.

The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting commencing on Tuesday has raised expectations of a 0.25% rate hike, which is almost fully priced in. Additionally, Treasury yields have climbed in anticipation of the impending rate hike.

As the earnings season unfolds, a total of 166 S&P 500 companies, including major tech players, are set to report their second-quarter financials. The broader S&P 500 index has displayed a robust rebound over the past nine months, with over $10 trillion reinvested into the equities market.

The upcoming updates from big tech companies have sparked speculations about the potential for AI-driven growth projections to propel the S&P 500 to reach a new record high.

 S&P500 (SPX) Technical analysis

Analyzing the technical aspect of the S&P 500, its current trading position revolves around the 4535 support level. This support is further reinforced by the 23.6% replacement ratio.

However, it is crucial to note that both the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a high probability of a bearish correction.

Presently, the 23.6% retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average offer immediate support at 4535. If the price experiences a bearish break below this level, it may encounter the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels at 4506 and 4484, respectively.

On the other hand, a bullish scenario involves a breakthrough above the 4580 resistance level, which could pave the way for the S&P 500 index to target the 468 or 466 resistance levels.

As traders, it is essential to closely monitor the 4535 level as it presents a potential selling opportunity in case of a bearish break, while a sustained support could signal a buying opportunity.

Daily Price Outlook

During Tuesday's Asian trading session, the sterling pair has gained 0.24%, trading around 1.2863.

The market is acting cautiously because of Wednesday's Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

July marked a five-month low for business activity in the United States. There was a fall from 53.2 to 52 in the S&P Global Composite PMI. The rise in the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI from 46.3 to 49 was better than expected.

The Services PMI dropped from 54.4 to 52.4, below the consensus forecast of 54, and the Composite PMI also dropped from 53.2 to 52.

Some have speculated that the Federal Reserve may soon stop tightening monetary policy in response to recent economic statistics showing inflation is slowing and the labour market is tight.

Speculation is high that the Federal Open Market Committee will raise its benchmark rate by another quarter point at its meeting on Wednesday. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will provide some hints about the potential for interest rate guidance during his news conference on Wednesday. The Fed's hawkish approach can set off the US dollar.

However, preliminary data from the UK's PMI indicated that economic activity in July was worse than anticipated. In July, the Manufacturing PMI dropped to 45.0 from June's 46.5, below the forecasted 46.1. This number marked the 12th consecutive month of industrial decline.

In the meantime, the Services PMI flash estimate fell to 51.5 from 53.0 previously and 53.7 forecasted.

On August 3, market participants expect the Bank of England (BoE) to raise its benchmark interest rate from 5% to 6%. But the Bank of England's latest rate increase adds to worries about the impact of the Bank's most aggressive rate hikes in three decades on the UK economy.

There hasn't been any major UK economic data released recently. Therefore the value of the USD will likely continue to affect the pair's movement. The DXY is down by -0.11% to 101.23, giving strength to the British pound against greenback.

Traders will also pay attention to the US CB Consumer Confidence report, the Advance GDP QoQ report, and the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index MoM report, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.

These numbers may have a major effect on the dynamics of the US Dollar and guide the GBP/USD pair.

 GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair has found robust support at the level of 1.2805 and has initiated a bullish rebound from this key level. This development indicates a potential resumption of the main bullish trend, which is aligned with the existing bullish channel evident on the chart.

As a result, the upcoming sessions are expected to witness a bullish trajectory, with positive targets identified at 1.2870, followed by 1.2935 and 1.3010.

However, it is worth noting that achieving the suggested targets will require additional positive momentum in the market.

Investors should be watchful of potential price action, as a break below the levels of 1.2805 and 1.2780 could signal a shift away from the bullish channel and a short-term decline in the price.

For today's trading activities, the anticipated range for the GBP/USD pair is expected to be between the support level of 1.2775 and the resistance level of 1.2930.

Traders are advised to closely monitor market movements and price behavior to make informed trading decisions during this period.

Daily Price Outlook

On Monday, the EUR/USD currency pair demonstrated a positive performance, rising by +0.19% within a 24-hour period and stabilizing at $1.1141. This marked the end of a 7-day losing streak, as the pair rebounded from losses incurred during the previous two sessions.

US Dollar Under lost its 5-Day winning Streak

During the early hours of Monday's trading session, signs of further recovery were evident, largely attributed to the declining prices of the US Dollar Index, which saw a decrease of -0.17% on a daily basis, settling at 100.90.

Additionally, the 10-year treasury yield declined by -0.31% to 3.82, further exerting pressure on the greenback throughout the day. The US Dollar Index (DXY) experienced a drop after a 5-day consecutive rise, having reached its highest levels since April 2022 during the previous week. The decline in the greenback's value on Monday can be partially attributed to anticipation ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's scheduled speech on Wednesday.

Market expectations suggest that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the upcoming FOMC meeting, putting an end to rate cuts. This development has already been factored into the market, resulting in a correction in the price of the greenback.

ECB's Anticipated Cautious Rate Increase

Meanwhile, in the European context, the European Central Bank (ECB) is anticipated to enact a 25 basis-points rate increase, adopting a cautious approach in light of concerns raised by certain European policymakers about the potential risks associated with aggressive tightening. The German economy's severe slump has added to these considerations. President Lagarde is likely to adopt a "data-dependent approach," refraining from committing to another hike during the September meeting.

The possibility of a "dovish hike" could have a negative impact on the euro, leading traders to adjust their expectations for further monetary tightening. Moreover, the release of PMI data from both the USA and European nations today will play a significant role in influencing the prices of EUR/USD in the upcoming hours. Market participants will closely monitor this data for insights into the economic health of the regions and its potential impact on the currency pair's movement.

 EUR/USD - Technical analysis

EUR/USD remained stagnant in recent sessions, trading within the 1.1105 support and 1.1170 resistance levels. The price must surpass either of these levels for clearer direction in its next targets.

As the price remains indecisive, a break below the support could lead to further declines targeting 1.1055 and 1.1000 levels. Conversely, breaching the resistance is crucial to resume the main bullish trend, aiming for 1.1275 and 1.1418 levels.

Expected trading range for today: 1.1050 (support) to 1.1210 (resistance).

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P 500 index experienced a slow movement as investors eagerly awaited crucial events that could shape market sentiment and direction. On Monday, SPX is rising by +0.03% gains at 4536.34, this little change reflects the cautious stance of traders.

The previous week saw a mixed performance among the major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to extend its winning streak for ten consecutive days, the longest since 2017, albeit with a mere 2.51-point gain. On the other hand, the S&P 500 closed the week with a modest 0.7% increase, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded a 0.6% decline. These fluctuations indicate a hesitant market sentiment, with investors treading cautiously.

Market experts have been noting a potential shift in investor sentiment towards a more bearish outlook. The profit-taking attitude has been particularly evident among investors who have enjoyed impressive returns from tech and FAANG stocks.

The slow movement in the S&P 500 index can also be attributed to the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The slight improvement in price of index might be due to the ongoing expectations of potential rate hike in the upcoming Fed meeting.

Additionally, the release of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, further contributed to the cautious atmosphere.

Moreover, the ongoing earnings season played a significant role in the index's sluggishness. With a busy week ahead, including financial updates from major companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta, as well as significant pharmaceutical, industrial, and big oil firms, investors remained on the sidelines, awaiting corporate performance indicators that could influence market trends.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis

Taking a look at the technical side of the S&P 500, it is currently trading around the 4535 support level. This particular support divergence is being extended by the 23.6% replacement ratio.

However, upon examining the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator, both of them are showing overbought conditions, suggesting that the chances of a bearish correction remain strong.

At the moment, the 23.6% retracement level, as well as the 50-day exponential moving average, are providing immediate support around 4535. In the event of a bearish break below this level, the SPX price is likely to be exposed to the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels, which are at 4506 and 4484 respectively.

An alternative scenario is a bullish break above the 4580 resistance level, which would likely expose the S&P 500 index towards the 468 or 466 resistance levels.

Therefore, we should monitor the 4535 level closely, as a bearish break below this support could present a selling opportunity. On the other hand, if the support holds, we can also consider a buying opportunity.

Daily Price Outlook

On Monday, the price of gold finds it difficult to acquire momentum. The yellow metal is currently trading 0.24% lower than $1,961 for the day. Market participants are anticipating the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting and the press conference by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, as stated by Goldman Sachs. The price of gold in US dollars could be considerably impacted by these occurrences.

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve (Fed) will disclose the results of its monetary policy meeting, and market participants anticipate a 25 basis point (bps) increase in interest rates. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the likelihood of another Fed rate hike following the July meeting jumped to 28% from 15.9% last month.

This signals the potential end of the current rate-hiking cycle. This has contributed to the US Dollar's recovery and acted as a headwind for the Gold price. The focus will be on the monetary policy statement and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell after the meeting.

Following this, the European Central Bank (ECB) is also anticipated to raise borrowing costs by 25 basis points in their meeting to control high inflation. The prospects of further tightening from both central banks are limiting the rise of Gold prices.

However, concerns over China's economic growth, US-China trade relations, and geopolitical risks are preventing a significant decline in the Gold price.

 Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices have confirmed a break below the support line of the intraday bullish channel, indicating an upcoming decline towards the $1945.20 level. This suggests a bearish bias for today, and further confirmation of the bearish trend will occur if the price breaks below $1960.00.

However, it's important to note that this expected decline is temporary, and the bullish track is expected to resume later on. If the price breaks below the targeted level, it may face additional negative pressure, with the next target at $1913.15.

On the other hand, breaching the $1977.25 level will be a positive factor that could halt the current negative pressure and lead to a rise in the price.

Expected trading range for today: $1945.00 (support) to $1977.00 (resistance).

Daily Price Outlook

Currently, the intraday bias for EUR/USD remains neutral, but there is an expectation of a further rally. If the price breaks above 1.1011, it will resume the upward movement that started from 1.0634, with 1.1094 as the target resistance level.

EUR/USD Forecast: Corrective Decline in Progress

At the beginning of the day, the EUR/USD pair once again surpassed the 1.1200 level, but the increase was limited due to a deteriorating market sentiment. The pair reached a peak of 1.1228 before retracing to its current level around 1.1180.

The Asian trading session was marked by a bearish tone, driven by tensions between China and the US over the major Asian semiconductor sector and disappointing earnings announcements from companies like Tesla and Netflix.

US indexes lost momentum after a positive close, and Wall Street futures were trading negatively before the opening.

EUR/USD Price Analysis: Euro Approaches Support-Turned-Resistance at 1.1150 Ahead of ECB and Fed Verdicts

As market participants seek clear directions ahead of next week's monetary policy meetings of the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve (Fed), the EUR/USD pair reflects the impact of the first negative week in four and is currently holding modest gains between 1.1130 and 1.1140 in early Friday morning trading in Europe.

The Euro pair's performance is influenced by the need for significant data or events and conflicting concerns about the different central banks, which is creating uncertainty among traders.

In economic data, the US weekly jobless claims report showed a decrease to 228K, the lowest level since mid-May, surpassing market expectations of 242K. However, Existing Home Sales fell short of expectations, declining from 4.3 million to 4.16 million (annual rate) in a separate report.

On the other hand, Eurozone Consumer Confidence improved more than anticipated, rising from -16.0 to -15.1, according to the flash calculation for July.

EUR/USD - Technical analysis

EUR/USD experienced a bearish sentiment in yesterday's session, leading it to settle near the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the last bullish wave.

The pair also moved below the EMA50, creating negative pressure that could result in further bearish correction.

However, there are positive signals from the stochastic indicator that may support a return to the main bullish trend.

The conflicting signals from the technical indicators prompt us to adopt a cautious stance and wait for clearer signals to determine the next trend.

It's important to note that breaching the support level at 1.1105 could lead to additional downside targets at 1.1055 and 1.1000.

Conversely, breaking the resistance at 1.1170 would signal a potential continuation of the main bullish trend, targeting 1.1275 and 1.1418 as the next main objectives.

Expected trading range for today: 1.1050 (support) to 1.1230 (resistance).

Daily Price Outlook

During Friday's Asian session, the GBP/USD pair experienced a slight increase, rebounding from a one-and-a-half-week low observed in the range of 1.2840 to 1.2835 the previous day.

However, spot prices are currently hovering near 1.2880, showing a minor gain of just over 0.10% for the day, without any significant follow-through buying or strong bullish sentiment.

The US Dollar (USD) is playing a significant role in supporting the GBP/USD pair, as it retraces the strong overnight advance that brought it close to a one-week high.

Positive US macroeconomic data released on Thursday, indicating continued strength in the US labor market and supporting expectations of further policy tightening by the Federal Reserve (Fed), is preventing significant downside for the USD.

However, investors remain uncertain whether the Fed will stick to its projection of a 50 basis point interest rate hike by the end of this year or adopt a more dovish policy stance.

GBP/USD: Cable Bears Await Confirmation from 1.2850 and UK Retail Sales

During the uneventful Asian session on Friday, the GBP/USD currency pair is stabilizing at around 1.2870 after five consecutive days of decline, which led to a two-week low. As the market anticipates the release of UK Retail Sales data for June, the Cable pair is exhibiting the usual pre-data consolidation.

 GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair is currently experiencing downward pressure, trading below the 1.2935 level. This calls for cautious trading as a break below this level, followed by a breach of 1.2870, could signal further declines throughout the day, with a potential target of 1.2806.

However, the bullish trend scenario remains valid for today as long as the mentioned support levels hold. In this case, the price targets for GBP/USD start at 1.3010 and could extend to 1.3140 after surpassing the initial resistance.

The expected trading range for today is between the support level at 1.2870 and the resistance level at 1.3050.

The expected trend for today is bullish, provided that the support levels mentioned earlier remain intact.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold's price (XAU/USD) is holding firm around $1,970, continuing its upward trend for the third consecutive week.

As investors await key central bank statements from the US, Europe, and Japan, the precious metal maintains its recent highs, fueled by market consolidation, a light economic calendar, mixed catalysts, and pre-announcement uncertainty.

On the previous day, positive US job indicators and disappointing performances in the US oil and technology stocks led to an increase in US Treasury bond rates and the US Dollar. Additionally, doubts surrounding China's economic growth posed challenges for gold buyers.

However, the US Dollar's strength in preparation for the upcoming Fed meeting and the actions taken by officials to safeguard the Chinese economy triggered a corrective bounce in the XAU/USD price, halting a two-day losing streak.

Notably, apart from the positive employment data, most US figures have not been strong enough to support the Fed's announcement of further rate hikes beyond July in the upcoming week. This has deterred market bears and instilled optimism among gold investors.

Nevertheless, much depends on the US central bank's ability to defend the US Dollar and maintain its hawkish stance.

 Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold prices closed below the level of $1977.25 yesterday, but they are currently consolidating above the intraday bullish channel. The presence of the EMA50 at this support level adds further strength to the consolidation.

Additionally, the stochastic indicator has reached the oversold areas and is showing positive overlapping signals.

Given these factors, we are inclined to suggest a bullish bias for the upcoming period. The initial targets are set at breaching $1977.25, which would reinforce the likelihood of the price heading towards $2000.00, followed by $2016.90 as the next positive milestones.

It's important to note that a break below $1967.40 would halt the expected rise and potentially lead to a decline in price.

The expected trading range for today is between the support level of $1960.00 and the resistance level of $1990.00.

Daily Price Outlook

As long as the AUD/USD exchange rate remains above 0.6594, the trading range is expected to remain neutral. The presence of the resistance level at 0.6710 suggests a potential further decline.

However, if the rate breaks below 0.6594, the downward movement from 0.6898 is likely to resume, with the next support level at 0.6457.

The AUD/USD price analysis highlights Australia's employment-driven rebound from the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA) towards 0.6850.

This rebound marks the largest daily gains in a week and ends a four-day losing streak for the currency pair.

The positive surprise from the June Australian jobs report contributes to the positive sentiment. As of the time of writing, the AUD/USD pair is trading near the intraday high of 0.6840, reflecting a 0.90% increase.

It's worth noting that the employment change and unemployment rate in Australia showed positive trends in June, while the participation rate slowed and part-time employment statistics declined.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair starts the day with an upward rally, breaking above the 0.6780 level and indicating a potential return to the bullish trend. This movement is influenced by positive Australian economic data and supported by the stochastic indicator, suggesting a continuation of the bullish bias and aiming to achieve positive targets around 0.6924.

Therefore, further upward movement is anticipated in the upcoming sessions, unless there is a break below the 0.6780 level and a sustained hold below it.

For today's trading, the expected range is between the support level at 0.6780 and the resistance level at 0.6890.

Overall, the trend for today is expected to be bullish, but it is important to monitor the price action for any potential reversals or shifts in market sentiment.