Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD pair recovers from recent losses, breaking a three-day losing streak. The US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditure data had put pressure on the Australian dollar, but positive developments in China's motivation plan provide momentum.

Market participants are eagerly awaiting the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) Interest Rate Decision on Tuesday for further direction. Currently, the pair is up 0.48% for the day, trading near 0.6681.

Contrary to the market forecast of 3.1%, the Personal Consumption Expenses (PCE) Price Index for June declined to 3% from May's 3.8%. The Core PCE Price Index, a key inflation indicator for the Federal Reserve, came in at 4.1% annually, lower than the projected 4.2% and down from 4.6% in May.

Additionally, China's State Council Information Office announces that Li Chunlin, vice chairman of the National Development and Reform Commission, will hold a press conference with other representatives to announce measures to boost consumption.

This development could support the Australian Dollar (AUD), acting as a broker for China, and contribute to increased household demand amid a slow post-COVID recovery.

The AUD/USD pair's recovery is approaching the 0.6700 level, driven by stimulus hopes and overlooking mixed China PMI and Aussie inflation clues. On Monday, the pair recorded its first daily gains in four days, rebounding from three-week lows and trading slightly higher around 0.6670.

Positive cues from China's official activity statistics and Australian inflation signals are influencing the market's slightly positive sentiment and the decline of the US Dollar.

Despite China's official NBS Manufacturing PMI rising to 49.3, Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 51.5.

Australia's TD Securities Inflation increased in July from 0.1% to 0.8% MoM, but annual statistics decreased from 5.7% in June to 5.4% in July. In contrast, Australia's Private Sector Credit in June eased to 0.2% and 5.5% on a MoM and YoY basis, respectively, down from 0.4% and 6.2% in May.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair faced a brief dip below the 0.6665 level but has since shown signs of recovery, prompting a positive start to the day and signaling a potential bullish bias in the upcoming sessions. The pair is expected to aim for the 0.6780 level in the short term.

The bullish trend is supported by the positive stance of the stochastic indicator. However, it is crucial to monitor the 0.6665 level, as a break below it and sustained trading below this point could halt the anticipated rise and lead to further losses.

For today's trading, the projected range is expected to be between the support level at 0.6630 and the resistance level at 0.6750.

Overall, the outlook suggests a bullish trend for today's session, but cautious observation of key levels is essential in navigating potential market movements.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold is facing challenges as it is trading at 1991 with -0.40% loss today. The US economy's resilience, as indicated by a positive GDP report, has increased the likelihood of another rate hike by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in the near future, potentially in September or November. Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for a slowdown in the economy and a weaker labor market to achieve the 2% inflation target.

These factors have led to higher US Treasury bond yields, supporting the greenback, which, in turn, exerts pressure on Gold as a USD-denominated commodity. Additionally, other major central banks like the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) are also adopting a more hawkish stance due to persistent price pressures.

While the Bank of Japan (BoJ) is moving away from massive monetary stimulus, speculations about the Fed reaching the end of its aggressive rate-hiking cycle since the 1980s might limit potential losses for Gold.

 The US Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the PCE Price Index rose 3.0% over twelve months, the smallest gain since March 2021. The Core PCE Price Index (excluding food and energy) rose 4.1% YoY, the smallest increase since September 2021. This suggests easing inflationary pressures, which may lead the Fed to soften its hawkish stance, supporting potential dip-buying in Gold.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The gold price saw an upward bounce from the 1945.20 level in recent sessions, testing the resistance at the EMA50, which is currently at $1960.00. A potential break above this level could pave the way for a move towards the next main target at $1977.25.

Hence, a bullish trend is expected on an intraday basis, contingent upon the price remaining stable above $1945.20. However, a break below this level would introduce negative factors, potentially leading to further declines towards $1929.00 and subsequently $1913.15.

The projected trading range for today lies between the support level of $1945.00 and the resistance level of $1977.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair is currently trading at around 1.2788, which is near a two-week low. It has decreased by -0.03% in the past 24 hours as traders wait for the Federal Reserve to release their preferred inflation gauge. The recent drop in the Cable pair is due to the US Dollar's strong rally, driven by positive economic data. Additionally, concerns about the Bank of England's rate hike plans are impacting the Pound Sterling's price.

One significant factor affecting the GBP/USD pair is the news about British Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's advisers expressing their dissatisfaction with the BoE's rate hike plans. They are worried that an aggressive rate hike trajectory could lead to an economic slowdown or even a recession, which puts additional pressure on the Pound.

Meanwhile, the US economic data has been mostly positive, which is boosting the US Dollar. The preliminary readings of the US GDP Annualized for Q2 surpassed expectations, indicating a growth rate of 2.4% compared to the previous 2.0%. Additionally, the US Durable Goods Orders for June jumped by 4.7%, far exceeding the market forecast of 1.0%. The decrease in Initial Jobless Claims also signals a strong labor market.

Despite the positive data, concerns about fresh US-China tensions remain. The White House is prepared to prevent the Hong Kong Leader from attending a key economic summit, which could add uncertainty to the market.

Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair may receive some support from the retreat of the US Dollar. However, ongoing fears about the UK economy and the BoE's rate hike plans could limit the pair's upside momentum. The focus is now on the release of the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for June by the Federal Reserve. If this inflation gauge is lower than the previous reading of 4.6%, it could relieve GBP/USD.

 GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

During yesterday's evening, the GBPUSD pair displayed significant bearish movement, breaking below the support line of the previously established bullish channel. Upon closer analysis of the chart, it becomes evident that the price has formed a double top pattern, signaling a potential decline in the upcoming trading sessions.

This bearish correction aligns with the longer-term perspective, considering the bullish wave measured from 1.2308 to 1.3142.

As such, we anticipate witnessing negative trades in the near future, with the next target set at 1.2725. However, it is essential to keep in mind that a breach of the 1.2825 level will halt the expected decline and pave the way for the price to resume the main bullish trend.

For today's trading range, we expect support at 1.2710 and resistance at 1.2880. Traders are advised to closely monitor price movements as the pair navigates this bearish correction phase.

Daily Price Outlook

The Gold price (XAU/USD) has experienced a gain of 0.19% and is now valued at $1950 after rebounding from its biggest daily loss since June 02. However, it is on track for its first weekly decline in four weeks. The rise in price reflects the market's cautious optimism amidst mixed concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's future actions and the ongoing tensions between the US and China, which are expected to be influenced by the release of top-tier US data. 

As stock futures show slight gains and yields rise, market sentiment has weakened. This situation is caused by a battle between strong US growth data and the central bank's inability to convince policy hawks. Moreover, fears of new US-China conflicts have emerged due to recent measures taken by Washington. 

These factors have prompted investors to seek the safety of gold, leading to a recovery in the XAU/USD. Expectations of a September rate hike by the Federal Reserve are also playing a role in shaping market sentiment towards gold. 

Looking ahead, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for June will be a key factor to monitor. It is the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, and the expected figure of 4.2% year-on-year, compared to the previous 4.6%, will be closely watched for insights into inflation trends and potential implications for the central bank's future monetary policy decisions. 

This data will play a crucial role in guiding the market direction leading up to next week's employment data release. As investors assess these fundamental factors, they will continue to influence the movements of the XAU/USD price in the market.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The price of gold has consolidated above the level of $1945.20, indicating potential signs of a bullish rebound. The stochastic positivity observed on the four-hour timeframe suggests a bullish bias in the upcoming sessions, with the price potentially aiming to test the level of $1977.25.

As long as the price remains above $1955.00, the overall positive scenario remains valid, reinforcing the positive outlook. However, if the price breaks below $1945.20, the suggested bullish trend may come to a halt, leading to a potential decline in the price.

For today's trading, the expected range is between support at $1940.00 and resistance at $1975.00. The expected trend for today is bullish.

Daily Price Outlook

Yesterday, the S&P 500 index remained relatively stable at 4566, with a small decrease of -0.02%. This followed the expected quarter percentage point hike in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, which led to a year-to-date high.

The Fed's post-meeting statement showed a bias for "additional policy firming," but Fed Chair Powell's remarks during the press conference seemed more cautious, emphasizing a data-dependent and patient approach for future rate decisions. This approach has raised market optimism that US interest rates may have peaked, which has improved risk appetite. 

There are several reasons for market optimism, including positive earnings season, strong global growth, and potential for additional stimulus in China. However, several factors present risks, such as extreme optimism, overbought conditions, overcrowded positioning, and seasonal headwinds. 

Yesterday, US equities had mixed results, with the S&P 500 showing little change after the Fed's rate hike to combat inflation. The performance of S&P 500 stocks was mixed as well, resulting in its value remaining relatively stable.

Some gainers included Alphabet (GOOGL), which saw a 5% increase due to better-than-expected revenue from Google ad sales, Union Pacific (UNP), which surged 10% following the announcement of a new CEO, and Boeing (BA), which performed well with shares rising 8% after reporting lower-than-expected quarterly loss and increased plane deliveries. 

On the other hand, some notable losers included Texas Instruments (TXN), which experienced a 5% drop in shares due to a slowdown in demand impacting profit and sales estimates, and Microsoft (MSFT), whose shares fell 3% after its third-quarter guidance missed estimates, largely attributed to a slowdown in its Azure cloud and Windows PC businesses.

Additionally, CoStar Group (CSGP) and Allegion Plc (ALLE) both faced declines of 8% and 7%, respectively, as CoStar cut its full-year revenue guidance, and Allegion Plc lowered its full-year sales forecast, both citing factors affecting demand in their respective industries. The mixed performance across these stocks contributed to the overall stability of the S&P 500 index, keeping its value relatively unchanged.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a significant bearish candle on the three-day timeframe, commonly referred to as a "bearish engulfing" candlestick pattern. This candle has fully engulfed all the previous trading activity on July 24th, indicating a strong bearish sentiment among investors as the S&P 500 index closed in the red.

Furthermore, the index has broken below another important trend line that was providing support around the 4555 level. The closing of candles below this trend line suggests a high likelihood of a continued downtrend for the S&P 500 index.

On the downside, there is potential support around the 4530 level, and a substantial breach of this level could lead the SPX price to its next support level at 4500. Further continuation of the downtrend could bring the S&P 500 index down to the 4490 level.

Conversely, if the S&P 500 manages to hold above the 4530 level, it may find the potential to reach the next resistance level at 4560, and further strength could lead to resistance around 4580. Careful monitoring of these support and resistance levels will be crucial for traders as they navigate the current market conditions.

Daily Price Outlook

On Thursday, the British Pound is trading at 1.2950, which is a 0.11 percent increase. Today, the GBP/USD pair is experiencing a significant increase due to various fundamental factors. It has risen for three consecutive days and is currently trading above the mid-1.2900s region, reaching a one-week high.

he primary reason for this upward trend is the ongoing decline of the US Dollar from a recent two-week high, which is helping the GBP/USD pair move up.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy has had a big impact on the weakening of the US dollar. Although they may raise interest rates again in the future, many people believe that the central bank is almost finished with its current cycle of tightening policy. This belief has caused the USD to drop for the third day in a row, which has helped boost the strength of the GBP.

The GBP/USD pair's upward momentum has been influenced by China's promise to support its weak economy, thereby creating a positive market sentiment. The Chinese Politburo's pledge to economic policy adjustments has garnered a favorable response from investors, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and boosting confidence while minimizing risks.

This has resulted in a bullish sentiment that has indirectly supported the GBP against the USD, leading to a surge in global equity markets.

Investors should be careful as there is less chance of the Bank of England (BoE) implementing aggressive rate hikes. This is supported by recent UK consumer inflation figures, which may limit the British Pound's increase against the Greenback. Market bulls are expected to be cautious when dealing with the GBP/USD pair, waiting for it to move back above the psychological level of 1.3000 before taking any action. This would signal the end of the corrective decline from a 15-month peak.

Today, the direction of the GBP/USD pair's movement will be mainly influenced by the dynamics of the USD price. There are no significant economic data releases from the UK, so the US economic docket will hold sway.

This includes important reports such as the Advance Q2 GDP report, Durable Goods Orders, Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, and Pending Home Sales data. Traders will closely monitor these indicators to determine their potential impact on the USD's trajectory, which will ultimately affect the movement of the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBPUSD pair has successfully surpassed our initial target at 1.2935, with the daily candlestick closing above this level. Today's trading session starts with additional positive momentum, indicating a further move away from this level and reinforcing our expectations for a continued bullish trend in the intraday and short-term perspective. The next target for the pair is set at 1.3010.

As a result, our bullish outlook remains intact, supported by the EMA50 providing underlying support. It is worth noting that a break below 1.2935 would invalidate the bullish bias and potentially lead to a reversal in price direction.

For today's trading, the expected range lies between the support level at 1.2900 and the resistance level at 1.3050.

Overall, the anticipated trend for today is deemed bullish, considering the price action and the support from technical indicators. Traders and investors should closely monitor the market conditions and assess price movements in light of these factors while making informed trading decisions.

Daily Price Outlook

Yesterday, gold prices rose by 0.55%, reaching $1980, the highest level in six days, thanks to three consecutive sessions of growth. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledged that inflation had somewhat decreased since last year, but still has a long way to go to reach the Fed's 2% goal.

Despite this, Powell suggested that the Fed may not change rates at its September meeting, instead waiting for incoming data before considering future rate hikes. This prospect of the Fed nearing the end of its rate-hike cycle is the reason behind today's increase in gold prices. Gold is particularly sensitive to rising interest rates, as they make it more costly to hold non-yielding bullion.

The European Central Bank is anticipated to increase interest rates by 25 basis points on Thursday to combat inflation and meet its targets. However, concerns about a slowdown in the Eurozone's economy may lead to a pause in rate hikes, despite the possibility of the ECB raising borrowing costs in July and September.

The market is waiting for ECB President Christine Lagarde's statements to gain insight into future monetary policy. A hawkish stance could limit gains in the gold price.

China, the largest gold consumer, has indicated additional support for its real estate sector and domestic consumption after COVID recovery. This could further increase the gold price. Therefore, gold traders are keeping an eye on China's additional stimulus plans.

Market participants are also closely watching the first readings of the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for Q2, the core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index MoM, Durable Goods Orders, and Initial Jobless Claims data. These figures may impact USD price dynamics and could influence short-term trading opportunities in the gold market.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

The gold price continues its upward momentum, approaching the critical level of $1977.25 and attempting to break through it. A successful breach of this level would indicate a potential end to the recent bearish correction and signal a return to the main bullish trend. Subsequently, the price may target gains starting at $2000.00 and potentially extending to $2016.90.

Given the current market dynamics, a bullish bias is suggested for today, supported by the EMA50 providing underlying support. However, it is crucial to closely monitor the price's consolidation above $1977.25, as a failure to do so might impede the expected rise and lead to a potential decline.

The anticipated trading range for today is expected to be between the support level of $1965.00 and the resistance level of $1995.00.

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY pair is witnessing renewed selling pressure, declining for the third consecutive session. During early European session, the pair is trading around 140.66 with -0.18% loss in 24 hours, just above the weekly low.

The US Dollar continues to retreat for the second day, contributing to the downward pressure on the USD/JPY pair. Conversely, the Japanese Yen experiences a slight boost from a positive business sentiment outlook in July, as indicated in Japan's monthly report. Additionally, Japan maintains its assessment of a moderate economic recovery.

On the international front, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warns of higher inflation in Japan and urges the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to exit its easy-money policy. However, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reaffirms the bank's commitment to an accommodative monetary stance and stable long-term yield rates under the yield curve control (YCC) policy. The risk-on sentiment further supports the USD/JPY pair by capping the safe-haven appeal of the JPY.

Traders are cautious and await the outcome of the important FOMC policy meeting, where a 25 bps interest rate hike is expected. However, there is skepticism regarding whether the US central bank will adopt a more dovish stance despite the robust economy. 

Market focus remains on the policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference for clues about the future rate-hike path, which will impact on the USD price movement and offer fresh direction to the USD/JPY pair.

Following this event, investors' attention will shift to the two-day BoJ monetary policy meeting starting on Thursday. However, given the fundamental backdrop, caution is warranted before confirming the sustainability of the recent rebound from the nearly two-month low.

USD/JPY - Technical analysis

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading below the 141.40 level and is expected to face downward pressure in the upcoming sessions, targeting potential support levels at 140.40 and 139.17.

As a result, a bearish bias is suggested for today, contingent upon the price remaining stable below 141.40.

However, if the pair manages to breach this level, it could indicate a positive factor that may lead to a resumption of the main bullish trend and potentially achieve further gains up to 142.90.

The anticipated trading range for today is projected to be between the support level at 140.30 and the resistance level at 141.80.

Daily Price Outlook

On Wednesday, AUD/USD pair is declining by -0.24% at 0.6773. It has lost about half of its previous daily gains. The declining prices of the AUD/USD pair are driven by weaker Australian inflation figures, a stronger USD supported by positive US economic data, and uncertainty surrounding the Fed's policy outlook. Traders should closely monitor these factors for potential shifts in the AUD/USD pair's direction.

Australian consumer inflation figures, with the headline CPI falling short of expectations at 0.8% in the Q2 and the annual rate decelerating to 6.2%, suggest a weaker economy. This, in turn, raises the possibility of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) pausing future rate hikes, leading to a weakened Australian Dollar.

Simultaneously, the US Dollar is also under pressure today after reaching two-week high yesterday supported by positive US macro data that reflects a resilient economy. Upbeat US consumer confidence data fueled optimism that the US may avoid a recession this year. However, the weak performance of USD ahead of FOMC is keeping check on AUD/USD losses for today.

Following the potential upcoming 25 bps lift-off during the two-day FOMC monetary policy meeting, investors have discounted the likelihood of any further interest rate hikes. Yet, there is skepticism regarding the Fed's commitment to a more dovish approach. 

Hence, market attention will be fixed on the accompanying monetary policy statement and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's post-meeting press conference remarks. These will be closely analyzed for hints about the future rate-hike trajectory, influencing the greenback prices and providing new direction to the AUD/USD pair. 

However, there are factors limiting further losses for the AUD/USD pair. Hopes for more stimulus measures from China are bolstering global equity markets, which, in turn, restricts gains for the safe-haven USD and provides some support to the risk-sensitive AUD.

AUD/USD - Technical analysis

The AUD/USD pair started the day with evident bearish sentiment, attempting to distance itself from the 0.6780 level. This reinforces the expectation of a continued bearish trend in the upcoming sessions, with the next main target anticipated at 0.6665.

The impact of the double top pattern remains in effect, further supporting the likelihood of reaching the awaited targets.

Additionally, the technical indicators are currently showing negative signals. It is important to note that a breach of the 0.6780 level would halt the expected decline and potentially lead to a price increase.

Traders will closely monitor the FOMC and Fed rate decision, which could significantly impact the AUD/USD pair's movement.

For today, the projected trading range is between the support level at 0.6700 and the resistance level at 0.6810.

Daily Price Outlook

On Wednesday, XAU/USD surged by +0.45%, reaching above $1972.36. US Treasury Yields remained steady before the Federal Reserve's (Fed) upcoming decision, with the 2-year yield falling by 1%, while the 10-year yield slightly climbed to 3.88%.

The Federal Housing Agency's Housing Price Index and S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (YoY) for May both exceeded expectations with readings of 0.7% and -1.7%, respectively. Additionally, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for July showed a better-than-predicted reading of -9, compared to the expected -10.

The Federal Reserve is concluding its July monetary policy meeting on Wednesday afternoon. Wall Street anticipates the FOMC to begin a rate hike campaign, raising its benchmark rate by 25 basis points to a range of 5.25% to 5.50%, the widest range since 2001. As this move is widely anticipated, it is not expected to cause significant volatility. Traders and investors should focus on policy advice.

There won't be a summary of economic forecasts this time, but Jerome Powell will hold a press conference after the central bank's decision is revealed. Despite the weaker-than-expected June U.S. CPI report, Powell may adopt a more dovish stance to prevent excessive loosening of financial conditions and maintain flexibility in case inflation rises in the future.

If Powell suggests the need for further efforts to maintain price stability and hints at future rate increases, Treasury yields, especially at the short end of the curve, may rise. This could catch many traders off guard and lead to a short squeeze.

A significant dollar rally resulting from the short squeeze would be detrimental to precious metals. While there might be short-term losses for gold (XAU/USD) and silver (XAG/USD), a major market sell-off is unlikely. The normalization cycle is nearing completion, even with potential further interest rate increases.

However, traders should also consider the possibility of Powell adopting a more lenient stance. If he emphasizes a data-dependent approach and the markets anticipate an easing cycle, it could weaken the US dollar, benefiting silver and gold.

Gold (XAU/USD) Technical analysis

Gold price remained relatively stable yesterday, maintaining its position around $1,960.00, thereby sustaining the bearish trend scenario without any significant changes. The focus remains on the potential target at $1,945.20.

It is important to note that a breakthrough of the mentioned target level could lead to further losses, potentially driving gold price down to $1,913.15 in the short term.

On the other hand, a breach of $1,977.25 would be crucial in resuming the primary bullish trend and aiming for gains towards $2,000.00, followed by $2,016.90.

Today's projected trading range lies between the support level at $1,945.00 and the resistance level at $1,977.00.