Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 04, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Aug 4, 2023
Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) price has been fluctuating as investors closely watch economic indicators and global developments. Gold price failed to stop its previous bearish rally and remained well offered around well below 1,930 level. However, the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report is crucial, as it could impact the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates in September. This uncertainty has put pressure on Gold prices, as investors fear a potential rate hike, which could strengthen the US Dollar and reduce demand for Gold.

In the meantime, the market's risk-off sentiment and high US Treasury bond yields have made it difficult for Gold buyers. Moreover, the economic data and geopolitical events continue to influence Gold's movement, making it essential for investors to analyze these factors carefully.

Economic Indicators and US Dollar Performance

Gold price remained relatively unaffected despite weak economic indicators like the US Services PMI and labor cost index. This is because the strength of the labor market does not always directly impact Gold prices; it's more connected to the performance of the US Dollar. Thus, the stronger US Dollar have contributed to a dip in Gold prices.

Furthermore, the global events and geopolitical tensions have significantly impacted the Gold price. For example, when Fitch Ratings downgraded the US credit rating, investors sought safety in Treasury bonds, affecting market sentiment. Apart from this, the tensions between the US and China, worries about China's economic growth, and news of potential restrictions on US investments in China have created uncertainty, influencing Gold prices. Hence, these events highlight how external factors can play a crucial role in shaping Gold's market movements.

Impact of Recently Released US Statistics on Fed Rate Hike, US Dollar, and Gold Price

According to the recently released US statistics, there is a chance of another rate hike by the Fed in 2023, despite low probabilities. The US Dollar is being boosted by economic fears arising from the US credit rating downgrade and US-China tensions, which is affecting the Gold price. In July, the US ISM Services PMI dropped to 52.7 from 53.9, with softer Employment and New Order Index readings, while Prices Paid increased. On a positive note, US Factory Orders improved to 2.3% in June, and Initial Jobless Claims met expectations. Nonfarm Productivity for Q2 rose by 3.7%, and Unit Labor Cost eased to 1.6%.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The gold price is currently teetering just below the critical mark of $1929.00, but it's not sitting still! Amid timid yet intriguing positive trading, the precious metal managed to stage a bounce back. However, all eyes are on the Stochastic indicator, which seems to have lost its positive momentum, eagerly waiting for the price to unveil its next move. Will it resume its downward journey, targeting the intriguing level of $1913.15?

The stakes are high as the downward trend awaits continuation, with all eyes on the intriguing Double Top pattern that has been completed. To maintain this exciting bearish momentum, the price must strive to remain below $1945.20.

Today's trading is sure to keep traders on their toes, with an expected trading range of $1915.00 to $1945.00. The suspense builds as we eagerly watch the thrilling price action unfold!

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 03, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Aug 3, 2023
Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) price managed to halt its downward trend and exhibited a slight recovery on Thursday. It bounced back from a three-week low around the $1,932 mark. The XAU/USD pair is currently trading in the range of $1,937-$1,938, reflecting a modest increase of about 0.20% for the day. Despite this, gold is still facing challenges in gaining strong traction, as various market dynamics continue to influence its performance.

USD Strength and Gold's Response

The broad-based US Dollar is currently showing strength, maintaining a tight range close to its peak since July 7. This has provided some mild support to the gold price, which is quoted in US Dollars. However, the complexity deepens due to the anticipation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will uphold higher interest rates for an extended period. This cautious stance has led traders to avoid making significant bullish bets on gold, thus constraining the potential upward movement of the precious metal.

Meanwhile, the recent ADP National Employment report for Wednesday revealed a strong addition of 324,000 jobs to the US economy in July, surpassing the expected 189,000. This surprising job growth underscores the job market's strength and could protect the economy from the threat of a recession.

Consequently, the Federal Reserve (Fed) is likely to maintain its cautious approach. These prospects have kept US Treasury bond yields higher, supporting the US Dollar and implying that gold is more likely to face downward pressure.

Global Factors and Future Outlook

Investors have seemingly absorbed the recent Fitch downgrade of the US government's credit rating, shifting it from AAA to AA+. In addition to this, China's Caixin Services PMI climbed to 54.1 in July from the previous month's 53.9. Thus, this unexpected positive development has helped improve the overall mood for taking risks globally, leading to a small improvement in the predicted future value of US stocks. Hence, this uptick may reduce the appeal of gold as a safe investment choice.

Focus on US Economic Docket and Beyond

Looking forward, market participants are now focusing on the upcoming US economic schedule, which includes key releases like the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, the ISM Services PMI, and Factory Orders. These data points, coupled with changes in US bond yields, are likely to influence the movements of the USD and provide guidance for the direction of the gold price.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold prices made a significant move by breaking through the critical level at $1,945.20 during yesterday's trading session. This sharp reversal has set the stage for further correctional decline, and our analysis suggests that the price is likely to target $1,929.00 and then $1,913.15 as the next key levels.

In the short term, the downward trend appears to be dominant, with the price forming a Double Top pattern, adding more pressure on the downside and potentially pushing the price towards the $1,905.00 mark. However, it is essential to note that if the price manages to breach the resistance at $1,945.20, it could effectively thwart the negative pressure and pave the way for a potential recovery.

For today's trading, we anticipate the price to move within the range of support at $1,915.00 and resistance at $1,945.00. As per our analysis, the expected trend for today remains bearish.

GOLD

Technical Analysis

GBP/USD Price Analysis – Aug 03, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Aug 3, 2023
Signal 2023 05 25 122627 002

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair experienced a bearish consolidation during the Asian session on Thursday. It remained within a narrow range, below a one-month low at 1.2640. The GBP/USD pair is currently around 1.2638, and traders appear cautious, refraining from taking aggressive positions as they await the upcoming monetary policy update from the Bank of England (BoE) later today. This update will likely have a major effect on the market, so traders are being cautious and watching closely before making any major moves in the GBP/USD pair.

UK Inflation Rate and Its Impact on GBP/USD Pair

According to the latest data, the UK's headline inflation rate decreased to 7.9% YoY in June, down from the previous 8.7%. This might lead the UK central bank to consider a smaller 25 bps interest rate increase, pushing the benchmark rate to 5.25%, the highest since December 2007. However, some investors are anticipating a more significant 50 bps rate hike due to persistent inflation above the Bank of England's (BoE) 2% target. As a result, all eyes will be on the monetary policy statement and press conference for clues about the future rate hike path. Thus, the growing expectations will significantly impact the British Pound and give a new direction to the GBP/USD pair.

USD Bullish Sentiment Weighs on GBP/USD Pair

The broad-based US Dollar is experiencing a bullish sentiment, which is putting pressure on the GBP/USD pair. The USD Index (DXY), which measures the USD against other currencies, is near its highest level since July 7, backed by expectations of a strong US economy that could keep interest rates higher for a longer time.

However, the recent positive US ADP jobs report, showing 324K jobs added in July compared to the expected 189K, further reinforces this view. Despite the Fitch downgrade of the US credit rating, the elevated US Treasury bond yields support the USD and limit the upside for the GBP/USD pair.

Upcoming US Macro Data and NFP Report: Potential Impact on GBP/USD Pair

Looking forward, traders will closely monitor various US macroeconomic data, including jobless claims, service industry activity, and factory orders. These indicators, along with US bond yields and overall market sentiment, will influence the demand for the US Dollar (USD) and create short-term trading opportunities for the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GBP/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

Yesterday, the GBP/USD pair experienced a bearish trend, successfully reaching the initial target at 1.2725, and even closing below it. This development strengthens the possibility of a continued downward correctional trend, with the next significant target at 1.2625.

The formation of a Double Top pattern signals further negativity, potentially leading the price to test 1.2500. As long as the price remains below 1.2835, the bearish trend is likely to persist.

For today's trading, we expect the GBP/USD to move within the range of support at 1.2620 and resistance at 1.2790. Our analysis indicates a bearish trend for today's session.

GBP/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 03, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Aug 3, 2023
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is still going down, making it the fourth day in a row that it's been falling. On Thursday, the pair is hovering very close to its lowest point since July 7th. However, the main reason for this ongoing fall can be attributed to the fact that a lot of people in the market expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to raise interest rates soon. This expectation has made the US Dollar (USD) worth more, reaching its highest value in four weeks. All these things combined are making it hard for the EUR/USD pair to recover and go up again.

Fed's Influence and Dollar's Resilience

The US Dollar is still doing well and is close to its highest value in four weeks compared to the Euro. This is happening because many people expect the Federal Reserve to make its rules stricter. This is influenced by the good news about jobs in the US, like the recent ADP jobs report, which shows that the economy is strong. As a result, the Fed might keep interest rates higher for a longer time. This confidence makes the interest rates on US government bonds go up, which helps the Dollar.

When they do that, the interest rates on US government bonds stay high too, which helps the Dollar stay strong. As a result, the exchange rate between the Euro and the US Dollar (EUR/USD) is feeling pressure because the strong Dollar makes it more expensive to buy Euros.

ECB's Uncertainty and Data-Driven Approach: Potential Impact on EUR/USD Pair

ECB President Christine Lagarde recently mentioned in an interview with Le Figaro that no decisions have been finalized for the upcoming September 14 meeting. She highlighted that the central bank's actions will depend on the latest economic and financial data. This follows the Euro Zone's headline inflation slowing to 5.3% YoY in July from 5.5% before, though core inflation remained steady at 5.5%.

This uncertainty and data-driven approach could impact the EUR/USD pair, potentially adding to its ongoing fluctuations as traders assess the ECB's upcoming moves based on economic indicators.

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

EUR/USD has successfully reached its first negative target at 1.0935, and there are indications of further downward movement in the upcoming sessions, potentially leading to the next significant target at 1.0835.

As we closely monitor the intraday levels, the 50 SMA is exerting negative pressure on the pair. However, there is a possibility of a potential reversal if EUR/USD manages to pierce through the resistance levels at 1.0955 and 1.0990, effectively halting the current downward trend and steering the pair back into the ascending channel.

For today's trading, we anticipate the EUR/USD to move within the trading range of support at 1.0840 and resistance at 1.1000. As per our analysis, the expected trend for today remains bearish.

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 02, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Aug 2, 2023
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its losing streak and experienced selling pressure as it approached the psychological resistance level of 1.1000 during the Asian session. Investors became cautious ahead of the release of United States labor market data, which will be published at 12:15 GMT. Moreover, the significant losses in S&P500 futures added to the overall cautious sentiment among investors. This apprehensive sentiment can be attributed to the recent downgrade of the United States economy by credit rating firm FITCH from 'AAA' to 'AA+'

US Dollar Index Bounces Back Despite Weak Economic Indicators

Despite the downgrade in the US economy, the US Dollar Index (DXY) bounced back after a slight dip and reached around 102.00. This surprising recovery happened even though there were disappointing economic data. US Job Openings data, which came in at 9.582 million, fell short of the previous release of 9.62 million, suggesting a potential slowdown in hiring. Furthermore, the US Manufacturing PMI contracted for the ninth month in a row, recording 46.4, lower than the expected 46.8. However, Factory Orders performed better than expected at 47.3, surpassing the forecasted 44.0.

Hence, the disappointing US economic data and the surprising rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) may put downward pressure on the EUR/USD currency pair.

Eyes on US Employment Data and Eurozone Inflationary Pressures

Looking forward to this Wednesday, the spotlight is on the US Employment data from ADP. Experts anticipate a slower increase of 188,000 private payrolls following June's surprising surge of 497,000 new jobs. On the other side, the Eurozone witnessed a 0.1% drop in inflation for July. However, the impressive GDP performance during the April-June quarter may prompt the ECB to consider raising interest rates.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the Retail Sales data later this week, as strong consumer spending momentum could fuel hawkish expectations for the ECB. All these factors will be closely monitored as they impact the global financial landscape.

Thus, the US Employment data and potential interest rate changes by the ECB may influence the EUR/USD currency pair, with positive US data possibly strengthening the USD against the EUR.

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

In a captivating turn of events, EUR/USD has made a remarkable rebound, finding sturdy support in the medium-term upward trend line and the 50-day SMA. This surge in positive momentum has lifted the pair to new heights in early trading today, following its recent pursuit to discover a bottom.

Adding to the thrill, the RSI's favorable signals, after a daring venture into oversold territory, are now doubling down on the positive pressures, setting the stage for an exhilarating ride in the upcoming trading sessions.

As we buckle up for this thrilling journey, all eyes are on the target - the initial resistance at 1.1130. But, hold on tight, as this thrilling ascent is contingent upon the pivotal support level of 1.0970 holding firm.

The adventure doesn't end there! The projected trading range for today promises heart-racing action between the support level of 1.0865 and the resistance level of 1.1130.

Today's price prediction reads like a thrilling plot twist - it leans bullish! Traders are in for an adrenaline-pumping experience as they closely observe the price action and devise their trading strategies for EUR/USD.

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

USD/CAD Price Analysis – Aug 02, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Aug 2, 2023
Usdcad

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/CAD currency pair showed positive momentum for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. In the Asian session, it briefly dipped to around 1.3260 but quickly recovered, moving closer to the three-week high it reached the day before. Despite the upward trend, bullish traders are exercising caution and waiting for sustained strength above the key 1.3300 level before considering further upward moves. However, this cautious approach reflects the market's desire for more confirmation of the pair's strength before committing to higher positions.

Fed's Rate Hike Expectations Support US Dollar Amid Credit Rating Downgrade

Despite a credit rating downgrade of the US government's credit to AA+ from AAA by Fitch, the US Dollar (USD) is still strong. This is because the Federal Reserve (Fed) is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points one more time. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy needs to slow down and the job market needs to weaken for inflation to return to the 2% target. However, the stronger US economic data supporting the chance of more rate hikes adds to the positive feeling about the USD.

Global Risk Sentiment Weighs on Equity Markets, Benefits Safe-Haven USD

Moreover, the USD/CAD currency pair is getting further support as global risk sentiment weakens, and investors turn to the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset. However, the surge in Crude Oil prices, hitting the highest level since April 17, supports the commodity-linked Canadian Dollar (CAD) and may hold back aggressive buying of the USD/CAD pair. This could limit aggressive buying of the USD/CAD pair. Although, the decrease in US oil inventories helps balance demand worries and keeps supporting Oil prices, adding to the strength of the Canadian Dollar.

Traders should pay close attention to short-term opportunities and keep an eye on the monthly employment reports (NFP report) from the US and Canada, scheduled for release on Friday. These reports can greatly influence the movement of the USD/CAD pair.

USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USD/CAD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

USD/CAD advanced during intraday trading, subsequently testing the crucial resistance level at 1.3300. Additionally, it approached the resistance of the 50-day SMA and tested the short-term downward secondary trend line. The RSI displayed negative signals after entering the overbought zone.

Based on these factors, we anticipate the pair to retrace lower, with a target towards the initial support at 1.3200, under the condition that the resistance at 1.3300 remains intact.

The projected trading range for today lies between the support level of 1.3200 and the resistance level of 1.3300.

Our price prediction for today suggests a likely bullish trend. Traders are advised to closely monitor the price action and consider this bullish outlook when planning their trading strategies for USD/CAD. However, prudent risk management practices should be implemented due to the dynamic nature of the market. 

USD /CAD

Technical Analysis

USD/JPY Price Analysis – Aug 02, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Aug 2, 2023
Usdjpy

Daily Price Outlook

The USD/JPY currency pair has eased its upward momentum and experienced a marginal loss of 0.03%. However, it has managed to recover some of these losses and has been influenced by notable developments shaping its recent movements. In the midst of these changes, the pair successfully regained the 143.30 level during the Asian session.

However, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) recently surprised the market by deciding to keep its very low-interest rates. They also changed how they control the yield curve, allowing the 10-year yield to go higher, as long as it stays below 1.0% instead of the old limit of 0.5%. This shows that the BoJ is focused on keeping a policy that helps the economy. BoJ Deputy Governor Shinichi Uchida also said that having an easy policy is really important to make sure Japan's economy stays stable.

Hence, the BoJ's unexpected decision to maintain low rates and adjust its yield curve strategy could influence the USD/JPY pair. It might impact the yen's strength and the pair's overall movement.

On the flip side, the US economy is sending mixed signals as July's ISM Manufacturing PMI improved slightly to 46.4, it didn't meet expectations, indicating ongoing challenges in the manufacturing sector. Furthermore, in June, the number of job openings (JOLTS) decreased to 9.58 million, raising concerns about the job market.

These economic indicators might affect the Federal Reserve's approach to policies, leading them to be cautious. Consequently, the US Dollar could strengthen, potentially causing the USD/JPY pair to rise.

Upcoming Focus and Future Outlook

Looking forward, traders are awaiting the US ADP Employment Change report, which will likely influence the overall risk sentiment for the USD/JPY pair. However, all eyes are on the US monthly employment report, known as the NFP report, which is sure to capture the market's attention.

USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
USD/JPY Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair has shown a sustained upward trend in early trading today, supported by the short-term upward correctional trend and the presence of a trend line. Additionally, trading above the 50-day SMA and positive signals from the RSI, despite reaching overbought levels, have further bolstered the bullish sentiment.

Considering these factors, we anticipate that the USD/JPY pair will continue to gain momentum, with the next key target being the pivotal resistance level of 145.00.

Our price prediction for today suggests a trading range between the support level of 141.50 and the resistance level of 145.00, indicating potential opportunities for bullish moves.

Traders are advised to closely monitor the price action and consider the bullish trend in their trading strategies for the USD/JPY pair. However, it is essential to exercise caution and implement risk management practices, given the dynamic nature of the market.

USD/JPY

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – Aug 1, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Aug 1, 2023
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair is still facing challenges as it struggles to maintain its position above the 1.1000 mark on Tuesday. However, this decline can be attributed to fresh hints from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde about a possible pause in interest rate hikes in September. Although the ECB recently raised rates by 25 basis points to 4.25%, there are signs of easing inflationary pressures and growing concerns about a recession.

Market players are anxiously waiting for the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data, as it could provide fresh insights and influence the market's direction. The pair's downward trend continues, keeping the market uncertain.

Mixed Economic Data from Europe and the US Impact EUR/USD

Furthermore, the previosly released economic data from Europe and the US is also impacting the EUR/USD pair. In the Eurozone, the Core Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for July rose by 5.5% YoY and 5.3% for the headline CPI. In the meantime, the flash Q2 Eurozone Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expanded by 0.3% QoQ and 0.6% YoY. German Retail Sales for June increased by 1.6% YoY, but the monthly figure fell by -0.8%, worse than expected.

In the US, the PCE Price Index for June grew at a slower rate of 3% compared to May's 3.8%. Despite these mixed indicators, the US Dollar remains strong, which was seen as another key factor that kept the EUR/USD currency pair under pressure.

Market Focus on Upcoming Economic Data

Looking forward, the market participants are monitoring the global Manufacturing PMI data and the German Unemployment rate for June. However, the upcoming US Nonfarm Payrolls report, scheduled for Friday, will be a significant highlight of the week.

The focus on these crucial economic data releases in both the US and Europe will put the data-dependent approach of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB) to the test when making decisions on interest rates.

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair is currently at an intriguing juncture as it approaches the crucial resistance level at 1.1055. Interestingly, we observe a calm decline from this resistance point, and the pair is now hovering near the primary support line of a bullish channel.

Adding to the excitement, the chart reveals the price staying below the neckline of a double top pattern, while the EMA50 exerts its influence with negative pressure. Moreover, the stochastic indicator is signaling a negative overlap, adding further intrigue to the mix.

In light of these compelling factors, our forecast leans towards a bearish bias in the upcoming trading sessions. This prompts us to set our initial targets on breaking the support line of the bullish channel.

Should this support be breached, it may potentially pave the way for further declines, with potential targets at 1.0935, followed by 1.0835 once the previous level is surpassed.

However, we must remain alert to the possibility of a game-changer, as breaching the 1.1055 resistance level would invalidate the bearish scenario, leading the price to potentially resume its main bullish trajectory, and setting sights on the 1.1170 areas as the initial target.

Today's trading session promises excitement within the range of 1.0920 support and 1.1070 resistance, keeping traders on their toes and providing ample opportunities for strategic moves.

EUR/USD

Technical Analysis

GOLD Price Analysis – Aug 1, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Aug 1, 2023
Signal 2023 05 25 122622 002

Daily Price Outlook

The safe-haven gold price has faced challenges lately, recording its first daily loss in three days. However, this decline can be attributed to the stronger US Dollar and rising Treasury bond yields, which have put pressure on the precious metal. Moreover, several factors have contributed to the uncertainty in the market, such as disappointing economic data from China, concerns about escalating tensions between the US and China, and the anticipation surrounding US economic indicators. These combined elements have led to challenges for gold, affecting its performance in the market.

US Dollar Strength and US-China Tensions Impact Gold Price

The US Dollar has surged to a three-week high recently due to hawkish statements from a Federal Reserve official and worries surrounding US-China relations. Adding to the geopolitical tensions, Beijing's decision to restrict drone exports in response to US tech and trade war strategies, citing "national security," has further exacerbated the situation.

As a result, the strength of the US Dollar and the fear of potential conflicts between the two economic powerhouses have impacted the price of gold. Consequently, gold has lost momentum and retreated to approximately $1,955 as investors seek refuge in the US Dollar amid the uncertain global landscape.

Economic Data and US Federal Reserve's Stance Influence Gold Price

Apart from this, the recent economic data releases from China and the United States have influenced the sentiment in the gold market. The lower-than-expected Caixin Manufacturing PMI for July in China, the lowest since January, has affected the potential for precious metals, as China is a major gold consumer.

On the other hand, if the US economy shows signs of slowing down, the Federal Reserve might change its plan to increase interest rates. This could limit the growth of the US Dollar and help support the price of gold. These factors are shaping how the gold market behaves right now.

Moreover, the ongoing trade war tensions between the US and China, specifically surrounding technology access, have added to the uncertainty in the market. China's announcement of export restrictions on certain drones and drone-related equipment to the US in September, citing "national security and interests," has heightened concerns among investors.

Moving on, market participants are closely monitoring upcoming economic indicators, including the US ISM Manufacturing PMI and the Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data, as they could provide further understandings into the direction of the gold price.

GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
GOLD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold price displayed a notable upswing in the preceding session, edging closer to our anticipated target at $1,977.25. Subsequently, a mild retracement occurred, testing the EMA50, influenced by a negative stochastic momentum.

Conversely, a breach of the support at $1,945.20 would halt the envisioned upward movement, redirecting the price towards a corrective bearish trajectory, with potential objectives at $1,929.00 and $1,913.15.

In today's trading, the projected trading range is positioned between the support at $1,945.00 and the resistance at $1,977.00.

GOLD

Technical Analysis

EUR/USD Price Analysis – July 31, 2023

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Jul 31, 2023
Eurusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the early Asian session on Monday, the EUR/USD pair experienced some buying interest, leading to a slight positive movement near 1.1025. This recovery comes after two weeks of losses and was supported by softer US data, as well as recent remarks from ECB officials and Federal Reserve policymakers.

ECB President Christine Lagarde referred to the recent economic output figures from France, Germany, and Spain as "quite optimistic" in an interview with French newspaper Le Figaro over the weekend.

Joachim Nagel, president of the Bundesbank of Germany and an ECB Governing Council member, also supported hawkish ECB policies, citing persistent core inflation and advocating for higher interest rates to be maintained for a longer period.

Conversely, Neel Kashkari, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, expressed concerns about job losses and weaker growth, while acknowledging the inflation forecast. He also questioned the central bank's aggressive monetary tightening program to control price increases.

News reports suggesting further Chinese stimulus are putting pressure on the US Dollar, allowing the EUR/USD pair to recover from a three-week low on Friday, despite recent losses.

The US Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicator, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index, showed weaker-than-expected readings for June, easing to 4.1% YoY, below the predicted 4.2% and the previous 4.6%.

Additionally, Personal Income decreased to 0.3%, falling short of the expected 0.5% and previous readings, while Personal Spending increased by 0.5%, surpassing market expectations of 0.4% and the earlier 0.1%. Moreover, the final readings of the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for July declined from the initial estimate of 72.6 to 71.6, and the University of Michigan's (UoM) 5-year Consumer Inflation expectations also decreased from 3.1% to 3.0%.

EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview
EUR/USD Price Chart – Source: Tradingview

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair has approached a significant resistance level at 1.1055 and is now experiencing a gradual decline, moving closer to the main bullish channel's support line. Notably, the price remains below the neckline of a double top pattern, which is visible on the chart.

Additionally, the EMA50 is exerting downward pressure on the price, and the stochastic indicator is currently showing negative overlap.

Considering these factors, it is prudent to adopt a bearish bias for the upcoming sessions. The initial targets for the bearish scenario involve breaking below the bullish channel's support line, potentially leading to further declines towards 1.0935 and 1.0835 levels upon surpassing the previous level of support.

However, a breach of the key resistance level at 1.1055 would invalidate the bearish scenario and signal a potential resumption of the main bullish trend, with potential targets around the 1.1170 areas initially.

For today's trading, the projected range is expected to lie between the support level at 1.0920 and the resistance level at 1.1070.

EUR/USD