Daily Price Outlook

Gold Price (XAU/USD) succeeded in regaining some strength during the Asian session on Wednesday. It managed to recover from a four-week low in the range of $1,922-$1,923, currently trading just below $1,930.

However, the uptick in gold's price can be attributed to a few factors. The equity markets are relatively weak, and the US Dollar has slightly decreased. These combined factors have provided some support to the value of gold. Moreover, concerns have arisen due to weaker trade data from China, the world's second-largest economy, which has raised worries about its economic outlook.

Adding to this, the recent downgrade of debt ratings for several US banks by Moody’s has prompted investors to seek safer options, benefiting the appeal of the precious metal as a safe-haven asset.

Furthermore, the Gold price was being backed by the weaker US Dollar. The USD Index, which measures the Dollar against other currencies, is currently not very strong, staying below a recent high. This is benefiting Gold because it's priced in dollars. It should be noted that the top official from the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank mentioned that they might lower interest rates next year. This has stopped the US Dollar from getting stronger, although the decrease might not be very big. This situation is supporting the Gold price and makes it more appealing to investors.

Market Outlook and Considerations

Looking forward, traders believe the Federal Reserve will keep its tough stance due to the strong US economy. A jobs report showed the job market is good, increasing the chances of a smooth economic slowdown. Fed Governor Michele Bowman also suggested a possible interest rate increase in September or November, boosting the US Dollar.

Traders might wait before acting because of the upcoming US consumer inflation report. This report will influence how the market thinks about future Fed decisions. This affects the US Dollar and decides the next move for Gold's price. So, waiting for clear signs of buying might be smart to confirm if Gold's price has hit a short-term low.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical analysis

The closing of the gold price yesterday displayed a marked downtrend, decisively falling past the $1,929.00 threshold and underscoring the daily candlestick's settlement below it. This bolsters the anticipation of an enduring bearish trajectory, targeting a prominent level at $1,913.15.

The present optimistic inclination of the Stochastic indicator alludes to prospective affirmative trades at today's market commencement. On the flip side, the enduring bearish thrust imposed by the EMA50 emphasizes the probability of sustained bearish trends in the near future.

In summary, our evaluation tilts towards a dominant bearish outlook, driven by the conspicuous double top pattern depicted on the chart. This perspective will undergo reevaluation if the price successfully eclipses the $1,945.20 mark and retains its stature above that benchmark. The forecasted trading range for today is anticipated to hover between a floor of $1,915.00 and a ceiling of $1,945.00.

Daily Price Outlook

Regarding 0.6457, the intraday sentiment is again skewed downwards. Following the breach, the descent from 0.7156 to the 100% projection level of 0.6457 from 0.6894 to 0.6195 will persist. As long as resistance remains at 0.6738, any potential recovery will maintain a slight downward risk for the immediate future.

During the Asian trading session on Wednesday morning, the AUD/USD pair remains subdued at 0.6555. Reports concerning the US-China relationship continue to strengthen the prevailing inclination towards purchasing US Dollars.

However, it's worth noting that the US government intends to focus solely on Chinese businesses generating over 50% of their revenue from quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI). According to Bloomberg, an executive order by US President Joe Biden regarding this ban is expected this week.

Recent developments between the world's two largest economies might benefit the Australian Dollar (AUD) acting as a liaison for China while adversely affecting the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair closed beneath the 0.6550 benchmark yesterday, further solidifying the forecasted bearish trajectory for the imminent timeframe, with an eye on the 0.6400 mark as the subsequent pivotal target.

The prevailing bullish undertone, as indicated by the Stochastic's upbeat momentum, necessitates the pair to remain under the 0.6550 and 0.6600 thresholds to ensure the continuation of the anticipated bearish momentum. Surpassing these benchmarks could act as a catalyst for the pair's resurgence, initiating a potential rally towards the significant resistance set at 0.6665.

For today, the anticipated trading spectrum is projected to span from a support level of 0.6490 to a resistance of 0.6590. The day's overarching trend is expected to be bullish.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD pair is maintaining its upward trajectory above the 1.0942 level, with a neutral intraday bias at present. The persistence of resistance at 1.1148 suggests the potential for further decline. A support level is found at 1.0832 in case the pair drops below 1.0942.

EUR/USD Market Analysis: The Euro displays a recovery pattern within an adjacent triangle below 1.1000 amid concerns over Italy's tax policy.

During the early hours of Wednesday's European session, EUR/USD has managed to recover some of its weekly losses. Consequently, the currency pair finds itself within a symmetrical triangle formation that has persisted for two months. This uptick in sentiment can be attributed to positive news and data releases from China, contributing to a slight improvement in overall market sentiment.

The recent surge in market performance is bolstered by an increase in factory-gate inflation figures from China, offsetting concerns arising from a rise in consumer prices. Furthermore, Bloomberg's reference to the Biden Administration's optimistic news has provided a source of comfort for EUR/USD traders. According to the report, the US plans to specifically target Chinese companies that derive more than 50% of their revenue from industries like quantum computing and artificial intelligence (AI).

It's worth noting that unexpected tax implications for banks' windfall profits in Italy, coupled with global credit rating agencies downgrading US financial institutions, are influencing risk perception and consequently affecting the EUR/USD price. Apprehensions related to potential economic downturns in the UK and China's decelerating economic growth seem to resonate on a similar wavelength, adding complexity to the market outlook.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair made an effort to surpass the 1.0955 threshold but has commenced the day on a bullish note, influenced by the Stochastic indicator's positive outlook. Some interim gains are anticipated before the pair potentially resumes its downtrend.

The persistent downward pressure exerted by the EMA50 underscores the prevailing bearish correction trend, a sentiment further reinforced by the recently observed double top pattern on the chart.

In light of the current analysis, the bearish trajectory is projected to continue in the near term, with a key target pinpointed at 1.0880. It's imperative to note, however, that any breach above the 1.1030 level could negate this bearish forecast, redirecting the pair towards its primary bullish trajectory.

Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment failed to prolong its upward momentum and turned sluggish, fading the cautious optimism that started the week. People are now eagerly awaiting second-tier economic data from both China and the US, which is scheduled for release on Tuesday. This uncertainty comes as major central bankers send mixed signals. Additionally, there is a lack of significant data or events on the horizon until the US inflation report is published on Thursday.

It is worth noting that the S&P500 Futures, which represent how investors feel about the stock market, show slight losses around 4,530. This is a retreat from Friday's monthly low after a small gain on Monday. Meanwhile, the yields on US Treasury bonds, both the 10-year and two-year bonds, are under pressure, hovering around 4.06% and 4.76%, respectively. It's worth noting that Wall Street managed to break its five-day streak of losses on Monday, ending the day with a modest gain.

Market Dynamics: USD Strength, Gold and Oil Weakness, Mixed Central Bank Signals

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed above 102.00, while Gold and Crude Oil prices are showing weakness, both down by 0.20% and 0.50% respectively. However, the uncertainty has been fueled by mixed statements from important central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and European Central Bank (ECB).

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has indicated that more interest rate hikes might be necessary to manage inflation. On the flip side, New York Fed President John C. Williams has suggested that interest rates could decrease next year. Williams has also expressed a desire for a slightly higher unemployment rate as the economy cools down.

European Central Bank and Global Central Bank Insights Impacting Markets

Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been in the spotlight due to discussions about high interest rates, sparked by Fitch Ratings, a global rating agency. This caused a dip in the Euro's value, as Fitch mentioned that the possibility of low inflation could lead to a pause in the ECB's rate increases. The ECB itself also noted that the period of highest underlying inflation likely occurred in the first half of 2023.

Meanwhile, Huw Pill, the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, outlined two potential risks for inflation in the United Kingdom. All of these recent events and statements are actively shaping the current financial landscape.

Upcoming Trade Figures and CPI Data: Market Impact Anticipated

Looking ahead, the focus will be on trade data from both China and the US today. However, the China Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the US CPI on Thursday will be crucial for traders seeking clear direction. These events will likely have a major impact on the markets.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

Examining the technical aspect of the S&P 500, its current trading stance centers around the 4475 support threshold. This support is further fortified by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, it's important to acknowledge that both the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator are signaling bearish conditions, implying a significant likelihood of a downward correction.

At present, the immediate support is provided by the 61.8% retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average, situated at 4475. Should the price undergo a bearish breach beneath this level, the next potential support lies around 4435.

Conversely, an optimistic scenario entails a breakout above the 4530 resistance level, which could pave the way for the S&P 500 index to target the resistance levels at 4560 or 4600.

For traders, vigilant monitoring of the 4500 level is imperative. This juncture presents a prospective selling opportunity in the event of a bearish breakdown, while a sustained support might indicate a favorable buying opportunity.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has been facing challenges as it struggles to rise above the 1.1000 level on Tuesday. Investors are worried about a possible recession in the area, which is putting pressure on the pair. However, the decline in EUR/USD currency pair was driven by a recent survey indicating that consumer inflation expectations for the upcoming 12 months dropped to 3.4% in June. Moreover, the strong US dollar was seen as another important factor that weakened the EUR/USD currency pair.

EUR/USD Pair Affected by Mixed Eurozone News and ECB Rate Speculation

According to the latest data, the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence showed a slight improvement, moving from -22.5 in July to -18.9 in August. This result was better than what experts had predicted at -23.4. However, it's important not to get too carried away with this positive change. Patrick Hussy from Sentix pointed out that the Eurozone economy is still stuck in a recession. This means we shouldn't think everything is great just because there was a small improvement.

Moreover, Germany's Industrial Production numbers for June dropped by -1.5% compared to expectations of -0.4%. This raised concern and impacted the EUR/USD pair's performance.

Eurozone's Inflation Worries Impact EUR/USD Pair

According to the European Central Bank's survey, people in the Eurozone were still worried about inflation in June. They thought prices would go up by 3.4% in the next year, which is lower than the 3.9% they predicted in May. Looking three years ahead, they expected inflation to be 2.3%, down from 2.5% in May. People also believed that their income wouldn't change much, but they expected to spend less. The outlook for economic growth in the next year got a little better, and expected unemployment in a year remained the same. As a result, the EUR/USD pair dropped to 1.0970, marking a 0.25% decrease.

US Dollar's Focus and Upcoming Economic Indicators for EUR/USD Direction

On the US front, people are paying attention to the US dollar because a Federal Reserve member, Michelle Bowman, said that increasing interest rates could help control inflation. This could make the US dollar stronger and limit gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Furthermore, people will be watching Germany's Consumer Price Index for July on Tuesday, and then the US Consumer Price Index on Thursday. These events will affect the US dollar and show where the EUR/USD pair might go.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair exhibited marginal upward shifts during the preceding evening, scrutinizing the resistance posed by the EMA50. As we initiate the current trading day, a revitalized bearish sentiment has manifested, characterized by a trajectory aimed at revisiting the 1.0955 level.

This tactical move is congruent with the ongoing preservation of the bearish trend scenario, which persists as a consequence of the observed completion of a double top pattern. This specific pattern instigated a deviation from the previously observed bullish trajectory, subsequently initiating a bearish correction with its ensuing target positioned at 1.0880.

Consequently, we anticipate the continuation of negative market dynamics in the forthcoming trading sessions. However, it is prudent to acknowledge that a breach of the 1.1030 level would serve to mitigate the prevailing downward pressure, potentially redirecting the price towards the primary bullish trend.

The anticipated trading range for the present day is projected to fluctuate within the boundaries of support at 1.0900 and resistance at 1.1040.

Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its long losing streak and slipped to around $1,930.00 as concerns about upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data weighed on its appeal. Furthermore, the precious metal faced pressure due to a strong US Dollar, with investors worried that US inflation could stay high due to ongoing wage growth and rising global oil prices. As a result, this marks the second consecutive day of Gold losing its value. It dropped to a fresh low of around $1,931 during the Asian trading session. Nonetheless, it's important to note that it's still higher than the lowest point it hit three and a half weeks ago.

Factors Affecting Gold Price: US Dollar Strength and Fed's Policy Outlook

The broad-based US Dollar is getting stronger as people believe the Federal Reserve might tighten its rules, causing Gold prices to drop. Many predict a 0.25% interest rate hike by the Fed in either September or November, supported by recent job data. Although the main job number was not satisfactory, higher wages and lower unemployment show a solid job market.

Michele Bowman from the Fed suggests more rate hikes to control inflation, and John Williams hints at possible rate cuts in early 2024, depending on the economy. Looking ahead, the upcoming consumer price data from both China and the US could have an impact on Gold's value. If readings are lower, it might lead to a reduction in expectations for rate hikes, which could affect the price of Gold.

Potential Impact on Gold Price: Inflation Trends, Fed Rates, and Uncertainties

Looking ahead, if inflation decreases as experts expect, and if the economy gets stronger, some investors might start thinking the Fed will raise interest rates this year. This could lead to Gold's price dropping more, even though Gold is usually seen as a way to protect against inflation. But things are a bit mixed up right now, so it's smart to be careful before deciding that Gold will definitely keep getting cheaper.

On the other hand, the recent selling shows that the drop in Gold's price we've been seeing for the last three weeks isn't done yet. This suggests that Gold's price will probably keep going down for a while.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

The gold price is displaying a more pronounced bearish inclination as it approaches the minor support level at $1929.00. The impending objective is to breach this level, thereby facilitating the achievement of our primary anticipated target positioned at $1913.15.

Consequently, our outlook maintains a bearish trajectory for the upcoming period, influenced by the previously formed double top pattern, in conjunction with the downward pressure exerted by the EMA50. It is important to note that surpassing $1945.20 would nullify the previously mentioned negative configuration, potentially prompting a price attempt to reestablish a bullish trend.

The projected trading range for today is anticipated to fluctuate between the support at $1915.00 and the resistance at $1945.00.

Daily Price Outlook

XAU/USD fails to leverage post-NFP rebound from a multi-week trough.

After an initial ascent to nearly $1,946 during Monday's Asian trading window, gold encounters selling pressure, resulting in a new daily low during the final trading hour. Currently, XAU/USD is hovering around the $1,940 mark, indicating a temporary halt in its modest recovery from Friday's level, the lowest recorded since July 11th.

In July, the US economy persisted in job creation at a significant rate, as highlighted in the closely watched monthly employment report. However, the downward revisions for May and June data hint at a softening demand for labor.

Yet, robust wage growth coupled with an unexpected dip in unemployment signals a persistently tight labor market. This bolsters market sentiment that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will sustain higher interest rates for an extended period, which in turn provides a lift to USD, enticing dip-buyers as the new trading week commences. A robust dollar is perceived to exert downward pressure on gold prices denominated in US dollars.

Looking ahead, the absence of any significant market-moving economic data from the US slated for Monday's release implies that traders will pay close attention to speeches from key Fed officials. These could sway US bond yields and USD demand. Besides, prevailing risk sentiment could offer some direction to gold prices. However, in the current landscape, bears seem to have an upper hand, fueling anticipation for an extension of the downtrend that has been in play for over a fortnight.

GOLD(XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold prices have recently engaged the crucial resistance level at $1945.20, yet have managed to maintain their stability below this level. This threshold acts as a significant obstacle to positive price fluctuations.

Notably, the Stochastic Oscillator indicates evident overbought conditions at present, which may potentially trigger a return to the anticipated intraday bearish wave, targeting the next level at $1913.15.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA50) reinforces the likelihood of the projected bearish trend, a prediction that will stand as long as the price sustains below the $1945.20 level.

It should be noted that a breakthrough of the proposed target might instigate further losses for the price, potentially driving it towards $1893.00.

Daily Price Outlook

EUR/USD is facing downward pressure as it remains below the critical 1.1000 level, vulnerable to modest USD strength. The pair retreated from its four-day peak around 1.1040, reacting to disappointing US NFP figures on Friday. During the Asian session, EUR/USD slipped below 1.1000, with a temporary halt to its two-day recovery from the 100-day SMA, near the recent one-month low reached last Thursday.

The US Dollar gains support as market sentiment leans towards the Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish stance. July's nonfarm payroll report showed an addition of 187K jobs, signaling weakening demand for workers despite steady wage growth and an unexpected decline in the unemployment rate. This keeps the door open for the Fed to raise interest rates by another 25 basis points in September or November, boosting the USD and exerting pressure on EUR/USD.

Conversely, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to end its nine straight interest rate increases amid indications that underlying inflation in the Euro Zone has peaked. Fitch Ratings suggests that the peak in ECB rates is imminent due to declining Euro Zone inflation. The ECB's economic report released on Friday highlighted that the region's underlying inflation likely peaked during the first half of 2023, adding to the negative sentiment surrounding EUR/USD.

The upcoming US CPI report on Thursday will have a significant impact on market expectations for future rate hikes and USD demand. In the meantime, macroeconomic data for the Euro Zone, including German Industrial Production and Sentix Investor Confidence, will provide guidance for traders. The USD's performance will depend on comments from several FOMC members, as there are no major US economic releases scheduled at present. Policy-related remarks could create short-term opportunities for traders, but given the current landscape, a bearish outlook for EUR/USD remains the prevailing trend.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EURUSD pair's upward march was halted at the 1.1030 level, which corresponds to the disrupted neckline of the double top pattern, as depicted on the chart. It's noteworthy that the price has begun to display a bearish rebound from this juncture, indicating a potential return to the correctional bearish wave and setting negative targets down to 1.0880.

Hence, we anticipate further bearish propensity in the forthcoming trading sessions, reinforced by the clear negativity exhibited by the Stochastic Oscillator. However, it should be noted that a breach of the 1.1030 level could interrupt the projected decline and steer the price back to the primary bullish trend.

Today's expected trading range lies between the 1.0900 support and 1.1050 resistance levels.

The predicted market trend for today is bearish.

Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair has been unable to maintain its upward momentum and has recently lost some traction, currently trading at the level of 1.0943. Investors seem cautious and showing hesitancy in making strong bids due to the mixed market sentiment, which has been driven by the anticipation of crucial economic data releases from the US. Furthermore, the Eurozone's Retail Sales for June experienced a decline of 0.3% every month, falling short of the expected 0.2% growth. This disappointing economic data has further weakened the position of the EUR/USD pair in the market.

European Central Bank (ECB) Rate Hike Impact on EUR/USD Pair

The European Central Bank (ECB) increased interest rates by 0.25% to 4.25%. ECB President Christine Lagarde aims to achieve a 2% inflation target in the medium term. ECB member Fabio Panetta supports keeping higher interest rates for a while, balancing inflation risks with a weak economy to support growth.

These decisions can impact borrowing costs, savings, and overall economic conditions in the eurozone. The rate hike may attract investors to the Euro due to higher returns, potentially strengthening the currency against the US Dollar and appreciating the EUR/USD pair. Notably, the ECB's goal is to manage inflation and support economic growth in the eurozone.

Recent Economic Data Highlights Mixed Picture of Eurozone's Economy

According to recent data, Germany's Factory Orders have shown positive growth, increasing by 3.0% YoY and 7.0% monthly, signaling strength in the manufacturing sector. However, the Eurozone's Producer Price Index (PPI) for June dropped to its lowest level in three years, showing a decline of -3.4% YoY. Additionally, the HCOB Composite PMI for the bloc fell from 48.9 to 48.6, and the services PMI declined from 51.1 to 50.9 in July. These figures present a mixed picture of the Eurozone's economy, with signs of improvement in manufacturing but challenges in other sectors.

Impact of Upcoming US Data on USD and EUR/USD Pair

Looking forward, traders are awaiting the release of US wage inflation and employment data, which will likely influence the Federal Reserve's decisions on rate hikes. These decisions will have a direct impact on the US Dollar's performance and may exert pressure on the EUR/USD pair. Moreover, the focus will be on key indicators like Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings, providing trading opportunities for those interested in the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

EUR/USD continues its intriguing journey as it tests the crucial resistance level at 1.0955. Despite its efforts to breach this pivotal point, the pair has managed to hold on below it, keeping the downward trend intact. Traders eagerly await the next move, with potential targets at 1.0880 and 1.0835, making for an exciting market outlook.

Adding to the intrigue, the Stochastic indicator has lost its positive momentum and entered overbought territory, providing further support for the resumption of the downward trend. However, it's important to keep an eye on potential game-changers – a breakthrough of 1.0955, followed by 1.0990, could effectively thwart the negative scenario and redirect prices towards the main upward trend.

As we gear up for today's trading, the anticipated range stands between the support level of 1.0850 and the resistance level of 1.1000. The excitement builds as we navigate the potential twists and turns of the market!

Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair initially showed signs of a bullish trend, but it could not sustain the momentum and experienced a significant drop after encountering strong resistance near 0.6590 during the European session. However, the decline was primarily driven by a major rebound in the US Dollar Index (DXY) as traders eagerly awaited the release of the United States Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data at 12:30 GMT.

The NFP report is highly anticipated and could have a major impact on the movement of the currency pair. As a result, the market sentiment is cautious, with investors exercising caution and refraining from making bold moves until the crucial economic data is unveiled.

Impact of US Market Developments on AUD/USD Currency Pair

The AUD/USD currency pair could be influenced by recent developments in the US markets. However, the significant gains in S&P500 futures and the rebound of the US Dollar Index (DXY) around 102.40 indicate strength in US equities and a hopeful sentiment ahead of the labor market report. Thereby, the positive US labor market data may lead to concerns among Federal Reserve policymakers, potentially triggering a recovery in inflationary pressures.

Consequently, the AUD/USD pair might face pressure as the US Dollar strengthens, possibly resulting in a decline in its value. Traders must closely monitor US labor market data and its impact on inflation, as these factors could significantly influence the AUD/USD pair's short-term movement.

RBA Minutes and Inflation Target Weigh on AUD/USD Pair

Despite the recent release of less-hawkish RBA minutes from August, the Australian Dollar failed to gain support. The RBA policymakers expressed the possibility of further tightening due to inflation moving towards the 2% target by late 2025. This cautious stance could limit the Aussie's upward momentum, potentially putting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair as investors reevaluate their expectations for the RBA's monetary policy outlook.

Thereby, traders need to closely monitor any updates in the RBA's stance and its impact on inflation to better understand the potential direction of the AUD/USD pair in the short term.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair made a valiant attempt to break through the 0.6550 level but encountered robust support, leading to a momentary wavering just above it. Meanwhile, the Stochastic indicator has climbed to overbought levels, fueling speculation of a potential return to negative trading and a possible breach of the aforementioned support, which could then open the path towards 0.6400 as the next significant target.

As the battle between bulls and bears unfolds, the dominant outlook points towards a continued downward trend in the intraday and short-term levels. However, if the 0.6550 level manages to hold firm against negative pressure, it could effectively halt the bearish scenario and propel the price higher, introducing a twist to the narrative.

Market participants are bracing themselves for today's trading, anticipating a range between the support level of 0.6500 and the resistance level of 0.6600. The tension rises as we eagerly await the outcome of this exciting market dynamic!