GOLD Price Analysis – Feb 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the first half of the European session on Monday, the Gold price (XAU/USD) managed to recover some of its losses but remained bearish around the $2,799 level.
However, the precious metal found some support from concerns about the potential economic fallout from US President Donald Trump's trade tariffs. These tariffs, along with fears of a trade war, have made investors more cautious and less willing to take risks.
As a result, Gold, which is considered a safe-haven asset, has been benefiting from the uncertainty. Moreover, there are speculations that Trump's protectionist policies could lead to higher inflation, further strengthening Gold’s appeal as a hedge against rising prices.
Meanwhile, the US dollar has bounced back close to a two-year high, driven by Trump's decision to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. On top of this, there are growing expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold off on cutting interest rates this year due to rising prices and strong consumer spending.
This has limited Gold’s gains. Gold remains supported by global trade tensions, the stronger US Dollar and potential Fed actions are keeping it from fully recovering.
Impact of US Tariffs and Economic Data on Gold Prices and the US Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar (USD) spiked after President Donald Trump imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China, which had a negative impact on Gold prices. The US Commerce Department's report showed that inflation ended 2024 on a strong note, with consumer spending rising in December.
This led to expectations that the Federal Reserve might hold off on more aggressive rate cuts. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 2.6% year-on-year in December, while the core PCE gauge also climbed to 2.8%, matching expectations.
Investors are concerned that Trump's tariffs could worsen inflation in the US, which could make the Federal Reserve more likely to take a hawkish stance, weakening Gold further. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent mentioned that the tariffs would strengthen the US Dollar and continue to push inflation higher.
However, Trump's calls for lower interest rates and the possibility of more policy easing by the Fed could keep US Treasury bond yields low, which might prevent Gold from falling too much. Traders are now focusing on upcoming US economic data, like the ISM Manufacturing PMI, to gauge the near-term direction for Gold.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) is trading at $2,783.87, down 0.50% as bearish pressure weighs on the metal amid a stronger U.S. dollar and shifting market sentiment.
The price action remains confined within a consolidation range, with the pivot point at $2,773.05 acting as a critical juncture for short-term direction.
The 50-EMA at $2,765.63 provides dynamic support, slightly below the current price, reinforcing the importance of the $2,772 level.
A sustained move above $2,772 may trigger bullish momentum, targeting immediate resistance at $2,809.05. If buying pressure strengthens, the next upside barriers are $2,830.19 and $2,848.35.
Conversely, failure to hold above the pivot could expose gold to immediate support at $2,744.98. A deeper decline may find stability around $2,730.45, with $2,703.37 marking a crucial downside target if bearish momentum accelerates.
The technical setup suggests a cautious bullish bias above $2,772, with a recommended entry at this level, targeting $2,808 for profit-taking.
A stop loss at $2,754 helps manage downside risk. However, if gold breaches the 50-EMA convincingly, the bias could shift bearish, increasing the likelihood of testing lower supports.
Related News
- GBP/USD Price Analysis – Feb 03, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold (XAU/USD) failed to extend its upward trend and edged lower around the $2,791 level on Friday, retreating from its recent record high. The decline comes as investors remain cautious due to the Federal Reserve’s firm stance on interest rates, a stronger US dollar, and ongoing geopolitical tensions.
Gold Faces Pressure from Federal Reserve’s Hawkish Stance
However, the major factor weighing on gold prices is the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause interest rate cuts for the first time since its easing cycle began in September.
The central bank’s cautious approach has led to a slight rise in US Treasury bond yields, strengthening the US dollar and limiting gold’s upside potential.
As a result, traders are hesitant to make aggressive bullish bets until they receive more clarity from upcoming economic data.
Moreover, the Fed has signaled that it will not rush to lower borrowing costs unless inflation and employment data justify such action. This has kept the US dollar strong, reducing the appeal of gold as a non-yielding asset.
US Tariff Threats and Geopolitical Risks Boost Safe-Haven Demand
Despite the pullback in gold prices, demand for the precious metal remains supported by ongoing global uncertainties. US President Donald Trump’s renewed threats to impose 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, along with potential 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they challenge the US dollar’s dominance, have raised investor concerns.
Moreover, heightened geopolitical tensions have added to market instability. Japan’s Joint Staff Office reported that Russian bombers, accompanied by fighter jets, flew an eight-hour mission over the Sea of Okhotsk and the Sea of Japan, escalating regional concerns.
Economic Data in Focus: US PCE Price Index Awaited
On the economic front, weaker-than-expected US GDP growth of 2.3% in the fourth quarter of 2024—down from the previous 3.1%—has raised recession fears. This could fuel fresh interest in gold as a hedge against economic downturns.
However, market participants remain cautious ahead of the US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index release, scheduled for later on Friday.
As the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the PCE data will play a crucial role in shaping market sentiment and influencing gold’s next move.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues its upward trajectory, holding near $2,795.88, with bullish momentum intact. The metal is trading above the pivot level of $2,788.36, signaling further upside potential.
Immediate resistance is seen at $2,814.11, followed by key levels at $2,826.85 and $2,840.38. A decisive break above these thresholds could propel gold toward fresh highs as investor sentiment remains strong amid ongoing economic uncertainties.
On the downside, $2,772.24 remains critical support, with further downside risk extending to $2,748.57 and $2,730.88 if bearish momentum intensifies. The 50-day EMA at $2,757.74 continues to provide dynamic support, reinforcing the broader bullish structure.
Technical indicators suggest a strong buying bias above $2,788. The recent pullback found support at key technical levels, allowing buyers to re-enter the market. The upward trend remains valid as long as prices hold above $2,788. However, a sustained move below this level could shift sentiment, prompting a corrective pullback.
For now, traders are closely watching resistance at $2,814.11. If breached, the next upside targets are $2,826.85 and $2,840.38. Conversely, failure to hold above $2,788 may invite selling pressure, with a potential retest of lower support levels.
Related News
- S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Jan 31, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Jan 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair struggled to stop its downward trend, staying under pressure around the 1.0377 level and even hitting an intraday low of 1.0366.
However, the main reason behind this decline is the weakening of the Euro. A slowdown in inflationary pressures across six German states contributed to the fall. This has led to expectations that the ECB might ease its monetary policy in the near future.
At the same time, the US Dollar (USD) is maintaining a strong position. The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm, hovering around 108.20, as the greenback benefits from its safe-haven status.
The ongoing uncertainty in global markets has strengthened demand for the US Dollar. Moreover, President Donald Trump's recent comments about imposing heavy tariffs on North America and BRICS countries have added further pressure on the Euro.
This combination of factors has kept EUR/USD under pressure, as investors focus on the broader strength of the US Dollar.
US Dollar Strengthens Amid Tariff Threats and Fed's Cautious Stance
On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) continues to maintain strength, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) trading around 108.20. The greenback's appeal as a safe-haven currency is bolstered by recent comments from former President Donald Trump.
He reiterated his plans to impose hefty tariffs on countries in North America and the BRICS nations, creating further uncertainty in global markets.
Trump took to his social media platform, TruthSocial, warning that any country attempting to create or back a new currency to replace the US Dollar would face a 100% tariff and be shut out of the US market.
Market experts believe that Trump's use of tariffs is part of his broader economic strategy, which could potentially lead to inflationary pressures in the US economy. This could support the Federal Reserve (Fed) in maintaining its current interest rate stance.
The Fed recently decided to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and indicated that it will remain cautious until there is clear progress in reducing inflation or signs of weakness in the labor market.
Looking ahead, the next key data point for the US Dollar will be the Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for December, set to be released at 13:30 GMT. Economists expect a slight rise in core PCE inflation to 0.2% on a monthly basis, compared to 0.1% in November. Year-on-year, core PCE inflation is expected to stay steady at 2.8%.
EUR Faces Pressure Amid Slowing Inflation and ECB's Cautious Outlook
On the EUR front, the Euro (EUR) is facing pressure as it weakens against other currencies. This decline comes amid a slowdown in inflation in six German states, with softer-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for January.
The lower inflation figures have raised confidence that the Eurozone is on track to return to the European Central Bank’s (ECB) target inflation rate of 2%. This could potentially lead to the ECB easing its monetary policy in the future.
ECB President Christine Lagarde expressed optimism in her recent statement, declaring a victory over inflation for this year. The ECB reduced its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 2.75%, signaling confidence in its fight against rising prices.
Meanwhile, Estonian Central Bank chief Madis Muller mentioned that it is realistic to expect inflation to be near 2% by mid-year. However, Lagarde cautioned that the ECB is still in “restrictive territory” and that future decisions will be made on a meeting-by-meeting basis, depending on the incoming data.
Looking ahead, investors are keenly awaiting the Eurozone’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) data for January, which is set to be released on Monday. Before that, the preliminary German HICP data will be published at 13:00 GMT.
However, the impact of the German data is expected to be limited, as inflation in six states has already provided a clear picture of current price trends.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is consolidating near $1.03889, struggling to gain traction after recent downside pressure. The pair is hovering around the pivot point at $1.03887, acting as a key battleground for bulls and bears.
Immediate resistance is at $1.04291, with further hurdles at $1.04667 and $1.05118. A break above these levels could strengthen bullish sentiment and push EUR/USD toward fresh highs.
On the downside, immediate support is at $1.03413, with stronger levels at $1.03069 and $1.02665. A break below $1.03413 could accelerate selling pressure, reinforcing the bearish outlook. The 50-day EMA at $1.04290 is acting as a dynamic resistance level, limiting upside potential.
Technically, the pair remains in a cautious stance, with buyers attempting to hold ground above $1.03819. A move above this level could trigger a retest of $1.04291, aligning with the 50-day EMA. However, failure to sustain above the pivot point may push the pair lower, bringing critical support levels into focus.
The outlook remains neutral-to-bullish as long as EUR/USD holds above $1.03819. A decisive break above $1.04291 could shift momentum in favor of the bulls, while a dip below $1.03413 would reinforce a bearish bias, signaling further declines.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis—Jan 31, 2025
S&P500 (SPX) Price Analysis – Jan 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The S&P 500 (SPX) is currently trading around the 6,071 level, reaching an intra-day high of 6,086. Despite this upward movement, the index is facing resistance due to increasing economic uncertainty and trade tensions fueled by US President Donald Trump’s aggressive tariff policies.
Investors remain cautious as Trump reiterated plans to impose a 25% tariff on Canada and Mexico while confirming that China would also face new trade restrictions.
However, no specific timeline has been provided for these measures, leading to uncertainty in the financial markets.
Moreover, Trump has threatened 100% tariffs on BRICS nations if they attempt to introduce an alternative currency to challenge the US dollar in global trade.
These developments have heightened risk aversion, with investors weighing the potential impact on global economic stability and corporate earnings.
Mixed US Economic Data and Fed's Cautious Stance Weigh on S&P 500
However, the US economic outlook remains mixed, further complicating the S&P 500’s trend. On the data front, the latest report from the Department of Commerce showed that the US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Annualized (Q4) declined to 2.3%, missing the expected 2.6% and falling from the previous quarter’s 3.1% growth.
This lower-than-expected GDP figure has added to concerns about a potential slowdown in economic activity.
At the same time, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 24 came in at 207K, better than the forecast of 220K and improving from the previous week’s 223K. While this indicates some resilience in the labor market, it is not strong enough to offset broader concerns about economic growth.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains higher, trading above 104.00, as the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance continues to support the greenback.
The Fed recently decided to hold interest rates steady in the 5.25%-5.50% range, marking a pause after three consecutive rate hikes.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized the need for further progress on inflation or signs of labor market weakness before considering rate cuts.
This cautious approach from the central bank has contributed to uncertainty in equity markets, preventing the S&P 500 from gaining further momentum.
US Tariffs and Economic Data Impact on the S&P 500
On the flip side, the US President has announced plans to impose tariffs on imports of critical industries, including computer chips, pharmaceuticals, steel, aluminum, and copper, aiming to shift production back to the United States.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has proposed universal tariffs starting at 2.5%, which could rise to as much as 20%, reflecting Trump’s broader protectionist stance.
Looking ahead, market participants are closely watching key economic data, including the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, due later on Friday.
This data will provide further insights into inflation trends and potential future actions by the Federal Reserve, which could influence the direction of the S&P 500 in the coming weeks.
S&P 500 – Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 continues its upward trajectory, currently trading at 6071.18 after gaining 0.53%. The index remains above the key pivot level at 6071.18, suggesting that bullish momentum is still intact.
Immediate resistance is seen at 6127.64, with further upside targets at 6171.70 and 6219.27. A break above these levels could extend the rally toward fresh highs as investor sentiment remains positive.
On the downside, immediate support lies at 6013.62, with additional key levels at 5969.55 and 5904.50. A drop below 6013.62 could trigger a corrective move, potentially testing lower support levels.
However, with the 50-day EMA positioned at 5971.80, buyers may step in on any pullback, keeping the broader trend intact.
Technically, the S&P 500 remains in a strong bullish trend, with higher highs and higher lows confirming positive momentum. As long as the index sustains above 6058, buyers are likely to remain in control, with a potential move toward 6127 in the near term.
Conversely, a failure to hold above 6013.62 could invite profit-taking and open the door for a pullback toward 5969.55.
Overall, the outlook remains bullish, with traders eyeing a breakout above 6127.64 for continued gains. However, monitoring volume and broader market sentiment will be key in confirming further upside.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 31, 2025
USD/JPY Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Thursday’s European session, the USD/JPY currency pair continued its downward trajectory, trading near 154.40. The Japanese yen (JPY) has been performing strongly against most currencies, bolstered by expectations that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) will maintain its policy of interest rate hikes this year.
However, the speculation around Japan’s spring wage negotiations has fueled expectations of continued rate hikes, as wages are expected to rise, driving inflation upward.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar (USD) traded sideways after the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) first monetary policy decision of the year, where it left interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, as expected.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that the central bank would only resume the policy-easing cycle when there is progress toward its 2% inflation target or signs of weakness in the labor market.
US GDP Data and Global Market Sentiment Impact USD/JPY Outlook
On the US side, the US Dollar (USD) has remained under pressure as the Federal Reserve’s cautious stance continues to weigh on market sentiment. While the Fed left interest rates unchanged, traders are awaiting the release of the US fourth-quarter GDP data.
The data is expected to show a slowdown in economic growth, with a forecasted annualized rate of 2.6%, down from 3.1% in Q3 2024. A weaker GDP report could further diminish investor confidence in the USD, keeping the pressure on the USD/JPY pair.
BoJ’s Rate Hike Expectations Keep JPY on the Rise, Weakening USD/JPY
On the JPY front, the Japanese Yen has been benefiting from a positive outlook for the country's economy. Speculation is increasing that the BoJ will continue raising interest rates this year, particularly following expectations for strong wage hikes in Japan’s spring wage negotiations.
These developments are seen as a potential catalyst for higher inflation in Japan, which the BoJ aims to address through tighter monetary policy. As the Yen gains strength, the USD/JPY pair has struggled to maintain upward momentum.
Additionally, BoJ Deputy Governor Himino's comments reinforced the expectation that the central bank would act decisively if economic and inflation trends align.
This has provided further support to the Yen, keeping the USD/JPY pair under pressure, especially after it failed to break above the 155.00 resistance level.
USD/JPY – Technical Analysis
The USD/JPY pair continues to decline, slipping below the 154.952 pivot level, as the yen strengthens amid risk-off sentiment and shifting rate expectations.
The pair remains under pressure as traders weigh U.S. economic data against potential policy shifts from the Bank of Japan (BoJ).
The 50-day EMA at 155.313 is now acting as a dynamic resistance level, reinforcing selling pressure. If USD/JPY fails to reclaim 154.952, further declines toward 153.903 are likely, with the next support levels resting at 153.292 and 152.683.
A decisive break below these levels could accelerate downside momentum, signaling increased yen demand.
On the upside, immediate resistance is at 155.616, followed by 156.318 and 157.022. A break above 155.616 could ease bearish sentiment, but momentum remains weak as long as the pair stays below the 50-day EMA.
From a trading perspective, a sell position below 154.951 aligns with a take profit target at 153.904 and a stop loss at 155.744, reflecting the bearish bias. Unless the U.S. dollar regains strength or the BoJ signals policy shifts, USD/JPY may remain under pressure.
Traders should watch upcoming U.S. inflation data and any policy commentary from Japanese officials for further directional cues.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2025
AUD/USD Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its losing streak, staying under pressure around the 0.6215 level.
The Aussie dollar has been struggling for the past four days, mainly due to a strong US dollar and cautious market sentiment.
However, the Australian dollar found some support after the release of the Export Price Index. The Australian Bureau of Statistics showed that export prices rose by 3.6% in Q4 2024, bouncing back from a 4.3% drop in Q3. This marked the first increase in export prices since Q4 2023, giving the Aussie dollar a slight boost.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) remained stable around 108.00, reflecting the dollar’s strength. The Federal Reserve, as expected, kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in its January meeting.
This came after three rate cuts since September 2024, totaling 1%. With the Fed signaling a cautious approach, the US dollar held firm, keeping pressure on the AUD/USD pair.
Australian Dollar Faces Pressure Amid Rate Cut Expectations and Mixed Economic Data
On the AUD front, the Australian Dollar (AUD) extended its losing streak against the US Dollar (USD) for the fourth straight day on Thursday, but the AUD/USD pair saw some recovery after the release of key data.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported that export prices rose by 3.6% in Q4 2024, bouncing back from a 4.3% decline in the previous quarter.
This marked the first increase since Q4 2023, giving the Aussie dollar a brief boost. Additionally, Australia’s Import Price Index rose by 0.2% in Q4 2024, recovering from a 1.4% drop in Q3, with surging gold prices playing a big role due to investors seeking safe-haven assets.
Meanwhile, speculation about future interest rate cuts in Australia added to market pressure on the AUD. Major banks like ANZ, CBA, Westpac, and National Australia Bank (NAB) now expect a 25 basis point rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) in February, earlier than previously expected.
This is driven by easing inflationary pressures toward the end of 2024. The RBA has kept the official cash rate at 4.35% since November 2023, but it is holding out for inflation to sustainably return to its target range of 2%-3% before making any cuts, which could influence the AUD/USD pair further.
USD Strengthens Amid Fed’s Cautious Stance and Awaited US GDP Data, Putting Pressure on AUD/USD
On the US front, the US Dollar (USD) strengthened, putting pressure on the AUD/USD pair. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) kept interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in its January meeting, as expected.
However, the Fed did not signal any immediate rate cuts, which helped maintain the strength of the US dollar.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the central bank would need to see significant progress on inflation or weakness in the labor market before making any changes to its policy. This cautious stance from the Fed further supported the US dollar.
Traders are now awaiting the release of the US fourth-quarter GDP data, which is expected to show a slowdown in growth, with a forecast of 2.6% compared to the previous 3.1%. Inflation concerns also linger, as the Q4 GDP Price Index is expected to rise to 2.5%, up from 1.9%.
Meanwhile, political developments, including the possibility of new tariffs proposed by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, could also influence the USD’s future strength, adding uncertainty to the market.
AUD/USD – Technical Analysis
The AUD/USD pair continues to face downward pressure, trading at $0.62202, below the $0.62428 pivot level. A stronger U.S. dollar and risk-off sentiment have kept the Australian dollar under pressure, limiting any significant recovery attempts.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at $0.62668 is reinforcing resistance, aligning with the immediate resistance at $0.62632. A break above this level could lead to a retest of $0.62927, while further bullish momentum may push prices toward $0.63235.
However, given the prevailing bearish sentiment, upside potential remains limited unless there’s a fundamental shift in market conditions.
On the downside, immediate support stands at $0.62110, with a break below this level exposing AUD/USD to further losses toward $0.61865 and $0.61648. A sustained move below $0.62110 could accelerate selling pressure, with the pair possibly extending losses if risk aversion strengthens.
From a trading perspective, a sell position below $0.62425 aligns with a take profit target at $0.61980 and a stop loss at $0.62687, reflecting the ongoing bearish momentum. The market is currently struggling to gain traction, and without a break above the pivot level, the bearish bias remains intact.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) is facing challenges in stopping its bearish trend, although it has found strong support around $2,779 level. However, the recovery is mainly due to a drop in US Treasury bond yields, which has given gold some relief. Apart from this, concerns over the economic impact of former US President Donald Trump's tariff plans are increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.
Gold Gains Support from Rate Cut Expectations
On one hand, Trump's calls for lower interest rates and signs of slowing inflation in the US have raised expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may ease its policies further. If interest rates drop, gold becomes more attractive since it does not yield interest like bonds or savings accounts.
On the flip side, the Fed's recent decision to pause rate hikes has supported the US dollar, keeping a lid on gold's gains. In the meantime, the strong risk sentiment in financial markets is also limiting gold's upside potential.
Stronger US Dollar and Trade Policies Keep Gold Under Pressure
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar Index (DXY) remains steady around 108.00 after the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in its January meeting. This was expected as the Fed had already cut rates three times since September 2024, reducing them by a full percentage point.
The US Dollar strengthened after the Fed took a cautious stance, with Chair Jerome Powell stating that further rate cuts would depend on clear signs of lower inflation or weakness in the labor market. A stronger US Dollar puts pressure on gold prices, as it makes the metal more expensive for foreign buyers.
Adding to market concerns, former Trump Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans for new US import tariffs, starting at 2.5% and potentially rising to 20%. This aggressive trade policy could lead to economic uncertainty, influencing demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
If these tariffs disrupt global trade or trigger retaliation from other countries, investors might turn to gold as a hedge against market volatility. However, in the short term, the stronger US Dollar limits gold’s upside potential, keeping prices under pressure unless economic conditions weaken further.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold is trading near $2,759.71, slightly down 0.01%, as it consolidates around the $2,752.72 pivot point. The 50-day EMA at $2,758.53 is offering critical support, indicating a cautious but potentially bullish outlook if prices hold above this level.
Immediate resistance stands at $2,772.57, with further barriers at $2,786.26 and $2,800.25. A breakout above $2,772.57 could trigger buying momentum, targeting higher levels as sentiment shifts positively.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $2,730.85, followed by $2,717.11 and $2,703.56. A decisive break below $2,730.85 could expose gold to increased selling pressure, pushing prices toward deeper support zones.
The current consolidation phase suggests traders are awaiting a catalyst—whether from economic data, Federal Reserve policy signals, or geopolitical developments—to define the next directional move.
A buy signal above $2,752 aligns with a take profit target at $2,772 and a stop loss at $2,741, offering a balanced risk-reward setup for those favoring a bullish stance.
Gold’s resilience near the 50-day EMA and key support levels indicates that buyers are defending the uptrend.
However, the proximity to immediate resistance requires a cautious approach, as failure to breach $2,772.57 could result in a pullback toward support.
Traders should closely monitor volume trends and macroeconomic announcements for cues that might drive gold beyond its current range.
Related News
- USD/JPY Price Analysis – Jan 30, 2025
GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
Gold price (XAU/USD) is unable to stop its losing streak and is still flashing red around the 2,762 level, hitting an intra-day low of 2,757.
However, the main reason for this downward trend seems to be the overall positive mood in the stock markets, which reduces the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
Investors are more focused on the stronger performance of equities, which is keeping gold prices under pressure.
Moreover, traders are being cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy decision. The Fed is expected to announce its plans later today, and this is creating uncertainty in the market, making people hesitate to make big moves in either direction.
Despite this, there are some factors still supporting gold including bets that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in 2025, along with falling US Treasury yields and some weakness in the US Dollar, are giving gold some backing.
Plus, ongoing concerns about US President Donald Trump’s tariff plans could be driving some investors to seek safe-haven assets, which helps limit gold's decline.
Traders are mainly waiting for the Fed’s decision, which will likely set the direction for the USD and gold prices in the near term.
US Dollar Holds Steady as Investors Await Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Monitor Trade Policy Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been holding steady around the 108.00 mark. Investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve's upcoming decision on interest rates, which is expected to take center stage later in the North American session. The Fed’s cautious approach to monetary policy continues to support the value of the US dollar.
According to the CME FedWatch tool, market expectations show almost 100% certainty that the Fed will keep its interest rate within the range of 4.25% to 4.50%. However, traders are still keenly watching the press conference from Fed Chair Jerome Powell for any clues on future policy moves.
At the same time, market uncertainty is rising due to potential changes in US trade policies. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, under former President Donald Trump, has proposed new tariffs on US imports, starting at 2.5% and possibly increasing to 20%.
Trump himself has stated he wants even higher tariffs, though no final decision has been made. If these tariffs are introduced, they could lead to higher inflation, making it harder for the Fed to cut interest rates. This would support the US Dollar further, potentially keeping gold under pressure.
However, if the Fed hints at more rate cuts in the future, it could weaken the dollar, giving gold some room to recover. Meanwhile, concerns over rising inflation from Trump’s tariff plans might push investors toward safe-haven assets like gold.
China's Economic Weakness and Stimulus Measures: Impact on Gold Prices
Apart from this, China's latest economic data has shown signs of weakness, which could impact global markets, including gold. The NBS Manufacturing PMI dropped to 49.1 in January from 50.1 in December, falling below expectations. Similarly, the Non-Manufacturing PMI declined to 50.2 from 52.2.
A weaker Chinese economy can reduce demand for commodities, including gold, as China is one of the world's largest gold consumers. This could put pressure on gold prices, especially if investors worry about slowing economic growth.
To support its struggling equity market, China has introduced new stimulus measures. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) approved a second round of long-term stock investment programs worth 52 billion Yuan ($7.25 billion). This move aims to boost investor confidence and stabilize the market.
If China's economy improves due to these efforts, it could strengthen demand for gold. However, if the measures fail to revive economic growth, gold may remain under pressure due to lower demand from China.
In addition to this, China’s industrial profits declined by 3.3% in 2024, marking the third straight year of contraction.
This reflects ongoing challenges like weak demand, rising deflationary pressures, and a struggling property sector. If economic concerns persist, investors may seek safe-haven assets like gold, helping to limit its downside.
GOLD (XAU/USD) – Technical Analysis
Gold (XAU/USD) continues to edge lower, trading at $2,760.56, down 0.10%, as the metal struggles to maintain bullish momentum. The price remains under pressure below the pivot point at $2,766.14, signaling a cautious outlook. Technical indicators suggest gold is at a critical juncture, with the 50-day EMA at $2,756.96 acting as immediate dynamic support.
A sustained break below $2,765 would reinforce selling pressure, potentially leading to declines toward immediate support at $2,749.27. Further downside risks emerge at $2,730.85, followed by $2,717.11, where buyers may attempt to regain control.
On the upside, gold faces strong resistance at $2,782.18, a breakout above which could signal bullish momentum, with next resistance levels at $2,794.55 and $2,804.06. However, the prevailing trend remains bearish as long as gold struggles below the pivot.
The broader market sentiment hinges on Federal Reserve policy expectations and tariff uncertainties. With economic data providing mixed signals, traders remain cautious, awaiting a clearer directional bias. A sell position below $2,765, targeting $2,743, with a stop-loss at $2,778, aligns with current market structure.
Related News
- GBP/USD Price Analysis – Jan 29, 2025
GBP/USD Price Analysis – Jan 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair faced slight decline, edged lower around 1.2430. This drop came as the US Dollar (USD) regained some strength ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming monetary policy decision, which is set to be announced at 19:00 GMT.
Despite this dip against the US Dollar, the Pound (GBP) performed well against most other major currencies. The Pound's positive movement came after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke about improving trade relations with the United States.
Despite the GBP/USD pair faced some pressure from the US Dollar’s recovery, the overall sentiment for the Pound remained upbeat, especially with signs of stronger economic cooperation between the UK and the US. The market will be keeping a close eye on the Fed's decision later today for further direction.
GBP Strengthens Amid Optimism Over UK-US Trade and Economic Growth Prospects
On the GBP front, the Pound Sterling (GBP) has been gaining traction against most major currencies, except safe-haven ones like the US Dollar (USD) and Japanese Yen (JPY). This rise comes after UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer made optimistic comments about improving trade relations with the United States.
In an interview with Bloomberg, he mentioned that the UK already has a “huge amount of trade” with the US, and there’s potential for even “better trading relations” in the future. His words helped ease concerns that the UK might face heavy tariff threats from former President Trump.
Starmer’s positive outlook on trade and the UK economy has also sparked some optimism. He stated that the government’s main priority is economic “growth” and that the UK economy is on the verge of a “turnaround.”
Investors are now looking for further signs of economic recovery, especially after Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves' speech in Oxfordshire on Wednesday. She is expected to announce plans for the Oxford-Cambridge Growth Corridor, which could potentially add £78 billion to the UK economy by 2035.
Looking ahead, traders are also anticipating changes in monetary policy. Many believe the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.5% at its upcoming meeting on February 6.
This expectation comes after slower-than-expected UK inflation and a surprising drop in Retail Sales in December. Additionally, labor demand has cooled due to increased National Insurance contributions for employers, which may further support the case for rate cuts.
US Dollar Strengthens Ahead of Fed Decision and Trade Policy Developments
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar is gaining strength ahead of the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming monetary policy decision, which will be announced at 19:00 GMT. The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against six major currencies, is bouncing back toward the 108.00 level.
Traders expect the Fed to pause its recent policy easing and keep interest rates unchanged at 4.25%-4.50%, based on the CME FedWatch tool.
In addition, investors are keeping an eye on President Trump’s trade policies. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, effective February 1, are still in place, and Trump is considering additional tariffs on China.
He also plans to impose tariffs on pharmaceuticals, advanced chips, and steel to boost US manufacturing. Therefore, the US Dollar’s strength, driven by Fed expectations and trade policies, is likely to weigh on the GBP/USD pair, pushing the GBP lower as USD gains traction against it. (edited)
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is extending its gains, trading at $1.24555, up 0.13%, as it tests key technical levels. The pair remains above the pivot point at $1.24239, signaling a potential bullish continuation.
The 50-day EMA at $1.24238 serves as near-term support, reinforcing the upward trend. If buyers maintain control, the next resistance levels stand at $1.25064, followed by $1.25637 and $1.26131.
A sustained move above $1.24232 supports further gains, with a breakout above $1.25064 likely triggering additional upside momentum.
However, failure to hold above the pivot could expose the pair to immediate support at $1.23777, with deeper pullbacks toward $1.23016 and $1.22461 if selling pressure intensifies.
Macroeconomic factors, including U.S. economic data and Bank of England policy expectations, will play a crucial role in shaping the near-term direction.
If the U.S. dollar weakens on dovish Federal Reserve signals, GBP/USD could continue climbing. Conversely, stronger U.S. data could stall the rally.
Traders may consider a buy position above $1.24232, targeting $1.25069, with a stop-loss at $1.23777 to manage downside risks.
Related News
- EUR/USD Price Analysis – Jan 29, 2025
EUR/USD Price Analysis – Jan 29, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair remained weak around the 1.0402 level, dipping to an intra-day low of 1.0394.
This downward movement is mainly due to the cautious mood in the market ahead of two key events. First, investors are awaiting the U.S.
Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy announcement, expected at 19:00 GMT. The Fed is likely to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%, as inflation has slowed but hasn't yet hit the target, and the labor market has stabilized. This uncertainty is keeping the EUR/USD pair under pressure.
Another factor weighing on the Euro is the European Central Bank’s (ECB) meeting scheduled for Thursday. The market has already priced in a 25 basis points (bps) rate cut, lowering the ECB's Deposit Rate to 2.75%.
Traders expect the ECB to continue cutting rates in the future, which would make the Euro less attractive in both the short and long term.
These two factors—the Fed’s cautious stance and the ECB’s expected rate cut—are contributing to the overall bearish sentiment for the EUR/USD pair.
EUR Under Pressure Amid ECB Rate Cuts and Concerns Over U.S. Tariffs
On the EUR front, the shared currency has been under pressure due to the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) meeting, which is expected to result in a 25 basis point interest rate cut, bringing the Deposit Rate down to 2.75%.
Traders also expect the ECB to continue cutting rates in future meetings. These moves are seen as negative for the Euro in both the short and long term, adding to the cautious mood surrounding the EUR/USD pair.
However, the situation is worsened by concerns about the Eurozone economy, especially with the potential impact of U.S. President Trump’s tariffs.
Germany, the largest economy in the region, is predicted to face another year of economic decline, largely due to ongoing structural weaknesses that the government has failed to address.
The German economy is expected to shrink for the third consecutive year, with industrial growth particularly suffering.
Investors are closely watching ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference for more details on how Europe plans to respond to Trump’s tariffs.
Lagarde recently warned at the World Economic Forum that Europe needs to prepare for the possible impact, as Trump's tariffs could target specific sectors.
Analysts are concerned that these tariffs could hurt the Euro, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent proposing a universal 2.5% tariff, which could increase monthly. This raises concerns about the Euro’s potential for growth.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is showing modest gains, trading at $1.04421, up 0.12%, as it attempts to build momentum above key support levels. The price is hovering near the pivot point at $1.04208, signaling potential upside if buyers maintain control.
Technical indicators suggest that short-term bullish sentiment prevails, but the 50-day EMA at $1.04500 remains a key resistance level that must be breached for further gains.
A decisive move above $1.04667 could push EUR/USD toward the next resistance at $1.04990, with an extended rally targeting $1.05334.
However, failure to sustain above the pivot may trigger downside pressure, leading to immediate support at $1.03971, followed by deeper retracement toward $1.03721 and $1.03413.
The broader outlook depends on macroeconomic factors, including U.S. economic data, Federal Reserve policy signals, and European Central Bank rhetoric. If risk sentiment remains positive and the dollar weakens, EUR/USD could attempt a bullish breakout.
Given current price action, a buy position above $1.04208, with a target at $1.04674 and a stop-loss at $1.04015, aligns with the prevailing trend.
Related News
- GOLD Price Analysis – Jan 29, 2025