Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Dec 3, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Support and Resistance: Immediate resistance is at $0.65575, while immediate support lies at $0.64497, with further downside targets at $0.64154.

- Trend Indicators: Price trades below the 50 EMA ($0.64931), reinforcing a bearish bias; RSI at 42 signals further downside potential.

- Trade Setup: Short positions below $0.64813 with a take-profit target of $0.64150 and a stop-loss at $0.65328.

The AUD/USD pair dipped slightly, trading at $0.64696, down 0.07% for the session. The price action has remained below the pivot point of $0.65259, signaling ongoing bearish momentum on the 4-hour chart.

The pair's proximity to the 50 EMA, which is currently at $0.64931, highlights a consolidation phase, though sellers maintain a slight edge.

Immediate resistance lies at $0.65575, with further levels at $0.65973. These levels represent potential barriers for any corrective upward moves. Conversely, immediate support is located at $0.64497, a breach of which could extend losses toward $0.64154 and $0.63763.

The RSI, currently at 42, underscores the bearish tone, indicating that selling pressure is outweighing buying interest but has yet to reach oversold territory.

The technical structure favors a short-term sell strategy, particularly if prices remain below $0.64813. A suggested trade setup involves entering short positions below this level, targeting a move toward $0.64150, while managing risk with a stop-loss at $0.65328.

This approach aligns with the pair’s downward trajectory and the broader bearish market sentiment.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64811

Take Profit – 0.64150

Stop Loss – 0.65328

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$661/ -$517

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$66/ -$51

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Dec 03, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Dec 3, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair managed to stop its decline and found some bullish momentum around the 0.6490 mark, reaching a high of 0.6505.

However, the US Dollar, which surged to a three-day high, initially pushed the pair lower. Nevertheless, the hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock helped the AUD/USD pair to limit its deeper losses.

On top of this, the ongoing concerns about a global trade war if Donald Trump returns as US President could weigh on market sentiment, which ultimately undermine the riskier Aussie. Looking ahead, traders are closely watching the upcoming US data, including the JOLTs Job Openings for October.

Moreover, Federal Reserve officials Adriana Kugler and Austan Goolsbee are scheduled to speak, providing further insights into monetary policy. On the Australian side, the third-quarter GDP figures, due for release on Wednesday, could offer more direction for the Aussie.

Mixed Economic Data Creates Volatility for AUD/USD Pair

On the data front, Australia’s current account deficit for the third quarter came in higher than expected, reaching A$14.1 billion. This was an improvement from the A$16.4 billion deficit in the second quarter, which was revised from a previous figure of A$10.7 billion.

The result was worse than analysts’ forecast of a A$10.0 billion shortfall. Meanwhile, Australia’s retail sales grew by 0.6% in October compared to a 0.1% rise in September. This beat expectations of a 0.3% increase, indicating stronger consumer spending.

On the US front, the ISM Manufacturing PMI rose to 48.4 in November from 46.5 in October, showing a stronger-than-expected recovery. This was above the market’s forecast of 47.5, signaling some improvement in the manufacturing sector.

On the Fed’s side, there were mixed signals regarding future rate cuts. Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic said he's unsure if a rate cut is needed in December but believes rates should be lowered in the months ahead.

Meanwhile, New York Fed President John Williams suggested that more rate cuts could be necessary to bring policy to a neutral stance, now that inflation and employment risks are more balanced.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller also indicated he was leaning towards supporting a rate cut in December, expecting inflation to continue easing toward the Fed's 2% target.

The stronger US manufacturing data and mixed Fed signals could add pressure on the AUD/USD pair, increasing volatility.

Therefore, the mixed data, with a higher-than-expected current account deficit in Australia and stronger US manufacturing data, could weigh on the AUD/USD pair. The uncertainty around Fed rate cuts and Australia's retail sales boost may limit AUD losses, leading to volatility.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair dipped slightly, trading at $0.64696, down 0.07% for the session. The price action has remained below the pivot point of $0.65259, signaling ongoing bearish momentum on the 4-hour chart.

The pair's proximity to the 50 EMA, which is currently at $0.64931, highlights a consolidation phase, though sellers maintain a slight edge.

Immediate resistance lies at $0.65575, with further levels at $0.65973. These levels represent potential barriers for any corrective upward moves. Conversely, immediate support is located at $0.64497, a breach of which could extend losses toward $0.64154 and $0.63763.

The RSI, currently at 42, underscores the bearish tone, indicating that selling pressure is outweighing buying interest but has yet to reach oversold territory.

The technical structure favors a short-term sell strategy, particularly if prices remain below $0.64813. A suggested trade setup involves entering short positions below this level, targeting a move toward $0.64150, while managing risk with a stop-loss at $0.65328.

This approach aligns with the pair’s downward trajectory and the broader bearish market sentiment.

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AUD/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Nov 28, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Critical Pivot: AUD/USD remains bearish below $0.65014; a break above $0.65456 is required for a bullish reversal.

- Resistance Levels: Immediate resistance at $0.65918, with stronger barriers near $0.66399.

- Support Levels: Key support at $0.64497; a breach below $0.64154 could accelerate selling pressure.

AUD/USD is trading at $0.64824, down 0.21%, as bearish sentiment continues to dominate below the $0.65014 pivot point. The 4-hour chart indicates immediate resistance at $0.65918, with additional barriers at $0.66399.

The 50-day EMA at $0.64987 reinforces short-term resistance, limiting upward momentum. A breakout above $0.65456, the key pivot level, would be required to shift the bias toward bullish territory, potentially targeting $0.65918 and beyond.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.64497, with further declines targeting $0.64154 and $0.63763. The RSI at 48 suggests a neutral stance, leaning slightly bearish, with no immediate oversold signals. However, continued pressure below the pivot could drive the pair toward lower support zones.

Current trends suggest sellers remain in control, especially if the price sustains below $0.65052. Traders are advised to consider selling below this level, with a take-profit target at $0.64488 and a stop-loss at $0.65504 to manage risk.

The short-term outlook hinges on whether AUD/USD can break above the $0.65456 pivot.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.65052

Take Profit – 0.64488

Stop Loss – 0.65504

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$564/ -$452

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$56/ -$45

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Nov 28, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Nov 28, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair managed to halt its downward trend and regained some traction around the 0.6505 level, reaching an intraday high of 0.6510.

This uptick was largely driven by a brief bounce in the US Dollar, which had fallen to a two-week low previously. However, the US dollar quickly regained positive momentum, aided by recent US economic data.

The data highlighted a resilient economy and slower progress in inflation, which suggests that the Federal Reserve may adopt a more cautious approach towards further rate cuts. This outlook helped lift US Treasury yields, boosting demand for the USD and putting some pressure back on the AUD/USD pair.

US Dollar Rebounds on Strong Economic Data and Inflation Outlook, Pressuring AUD/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar maintained its upward trend and bounced back from a two-week low, thanks to stronger economic data.

The US economy showed resilience with signs of slowing inflation, which suggests that the Federal Reserve might be more cautious about cutting interest rates further. This helped push US Treasury bond yields higher, boosting demand for the dollar.

On the data front, the latest US economic reports played a key role in this shift. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index rose to 2.3% in October, up from 2.1% in September.

The core PCE, which excludes food and energy prices, also saw a slight increase, rising to 2.8% from 2.7%. Meanwhile, US GDP grew at a healthy 2.8% annual rate in the third quarter, driven by strong consumer spending, which rose by 3.5%. Jobless claims also fell by 2,000 to 213,000, signaling a solid labor market.

However, there was a slight disappointment with October's Durable Goods Orders, which only rose by 0.2%, missing expectations of a 0.5% increase.

Excluding transportation, the rise was even smaller, at 0.1%. Despite this, concerns over inflation and the potential impact of future policies under President-elect Donald Trump, combined with the latest Federal Reserve minutes, gave the dollar an edge.

The rebound in US Treasury yields also helped support the dollar, putting some upward pressure on AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD Faces Pressure Amid Economic Concerns and Global Tensions, But RBA's Hawkish Stance Provides Support

On the other hand, the gains in the AUD/USD pair were also supported by stronger-than-expected data on Private Capital Expenditure in Australia. Australia's new capital expenditure rose by 1.1% in the third quarter, surpassing market expectations of a 0.9% increase.

This rebound followed a 2.2% decline in the previous quarter, showing some strength in the Australian economy. However, despite this positive data, the Australian Dollar remained subdued against the US Dollar, partly due to reduced trading activity ahead of the US Thanksgiving holiday.

Looking ahead, the AUD/USD pair may face downward pressure as the US plans to introduce new measures aimed at limiting China’s progress in artificial intelligence technology.

Given the strong trade links between Australia and China, any economic changes in China could have a significant impact on Australian markets, possibly weakening the Australian Dollar.

Furthermore, the market sentiment was dampened after President-elect Donald Trump's announcement of a 10% tariff hike on all Chinese goods entering the US.

However, the downside for the AUD was limited by the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) hawkish stance on future interest rates. Australia's monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.1% year-over-year in October, staying within the RBA's target range of 2-3%.

Although this was slightly below expectations of 2.3%, it marked the lowest inflation rate since July 2021 and helped support the Australian Dollar in the face of global economic concerns.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Analysis

AUD/USD is trading at $0.64824, down 0.21%, as bearish sentiment continues to dominate below the $0.65014 pivot point. The 4-hour chart indicates immediate resistance at $0.65918, with additional barriers at $0.66399.

The 50-day EMA at $0.64987 reinforces short-term resistance, limiting upward momentum. A breakout above $0.65456, the key pivot level, would be required to shift the bias toward bullish territory, potentially targeting $0.65918 and beyond.

On the downside, immediate support is found at $0.64497, with further declines targeting $0.64154 and $0.63763. The RSI at 48 suggests a neutral stance, leaning slightly bearish, with no immediate oversold signals. However, continued pressure below the pivot could drive the pair toward lower support zones.

Current trends suggest sellers remain in control, especially if the price sustains below $0.65052. Traders are advised to consider selling below this level, with a take-profit target at $0.64488 and a stop-loss at $0.65504 to manage risk.

The short-term outlook hinges on whether AUD/USD can break above the $0.65456 pivot.

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AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Nov 26, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Nov 26, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD pair is struggling to break its bearish trend, remained under pressure around the 0.6490 level and hitting a low of 0.6434. The main reason behind its decline is the growing concerns over the US-China trade tensions.

It should be noted that US President-elect Donald Trump recently warned about imposing a 25% tariff on goods coming from Mexico and Canada, along with an extra 10% tariff on Chinese imports. This has made investors more cautious, especially when it comes to riskier assets, and has weighed heavily on the Australian Dollar.

Despite the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) hawkish stance, the AUD has failed to gain momentum. Besides this, some buying in the US Dollar (USD) has added to the bearish outlook for the AUD/USD pair in the near term.

Looking forward, traders are hesitant to make big moves, waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes to get a better idea of future rate cuts.

US Dollar Strengthens Amid Trade Policy Concerns and Slower Fed Rate Cuts, Weighing on AUD/USD

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been gaining strength due to concerns around US President-elect Donald Trump's trade policies. Trump threatened to impose a 25% tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and an additional 10% on Chinese goods. These threats have reduced investors' interest for riskier assets, weighing on the Australian Dollar (AUD).

Looking ahead, traders seem cautious, waiting for the FOMC meeting minutes to get a clearer picture of potential rate cuts. Meanwhile, the US dollar gained traction as traders anticipated slower interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

Scott Bessent’s nomination as US Treasury Secretary briefly eased concerns that Trump’s policies could reignite inflation and force the Fed to cut rates aggressively. As a result, US Treasury yields rose, attracting more buyers to the USD.

Therefore, the US dollar's strength, fueled by concerns over Trump's trade policies and expectations of slower Fed rate cuts, has weighed on the Australian Dollar (AUD). This has contributed to a bearish outlook for the AUD/USD pair, pushing it lower.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.64901, down 0.20%, as bearish sentiment persists below the pivot point at $0.65456. Price action remains constrained under the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.65068, which reinforces the downside bias.

Immediate support is located at $0.64497, with further levels seen at $0.64154 and $0.63763, suggesting potential for further declines if selling pressure intensifies.

On the upside, resistance lies at $0.65918 and $0.66399, which align with key technical levels that could limit recovery attempts. The RSI at 45 reflects neutral-to-bearish momentum, signaling that sellers remain in control, but the pair is not yet oversold.

The bearish trend appears intact, with traders eyeing a possible break below $0.65014. A sustained move below this level could open the door toward the next target of $0.64488, while the 50-day EMA continues to act as a dynamic resistance level.

Conversely, a recovery above the pivot at $0.65456 would be required to negate the bearish outlook and aim for the higher resistance at $0.65918.

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AUD/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Nov 26, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Bearish Outlook: Trading below the pivot point $0.65456 reinforces downside risks.

- Support Levels: Immediate support at $0.64497, with deeper targets at $0.64154.

- Trend Resistance: The 50-day EMA at $0.65068 caps recovery attempts.

The AUD/USD pair is trading at $0.64901, down 0.20%, as bearish sentiment persists below the pivot point at $0.65456. Price action remains constrained under the 50-day EMA, currently at $0.65068, which reinforces the downside bias.

Immediate support is located at $0.64497, with further levels seen at $0.64154 and $0.63763, suggesting potential for further declines if selling pressure intensifies.

On the upside, resistance lies at $0.65918 and $0.66399, which align with key technical levels that could limit recovery attempts. The RSI at 45 reflects neutral-to-bearish momentum, signaling that sellers remain in control, but the pair is not yet oversold.

The bearish trend appears intact, with traders eyeing a possible break below $0.65014. A sustained move below this level could open the door toward the next target of $0.64488, while the 50-day EMA continues to act as a dynamic resistance level.

Conversely, a recovery above the pivot at $0.65456 would be required to negate the bearish outlook and aim for the higher resistance at $0.65918.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.65052

Take Profit – 0.64488

Stop Loss – 0.65504

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$564/ -$452

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$56/ -$45

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Nov 21, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Nov 21, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the AUD/USD currency pair continued its upward trend, trading near the 0.6520 level.

This rise was due to a weaker tone in the US Dollar, as buyers stepped back to assess US President-elect Donald Trump's proposed policies before making new moves.

Moreover, the recent market reaction to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval of a lower threshold for nuclear strikes initially caused concern. However, this quickly faded after comments from both Russian and US officials eased fears of a nuclear conflict.

This helped boost market sentiment, which in turn put pressure on the safe-haven USD, benefiting risk-sensitive currencies like the Australian Dollar.

RBA's Hawkish Stance Boosts AUD/USD as Inflation Concerns Support Australian Dollar

Furthermore, the upticks in the AUD/USD pair gained extra support from the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) recent comments. However, the RBA has maintained a hawkish stance, which means it is focused on keeping inflation under control by using stricter monetary policies.

This approach has been helping the Australian Dollar remain strong against other currencies, including the US Dollar.

Earlier this week, the RBA's November meeting minutes showed that the board is concerned about rising inflation. They highlighted the need to keep interest rates high to prevent inflation from getting worse.

This cautious approach from the RBA reassures investors and boosts confidence in the AUD. Together with the overall positive market mood, this has helped lift the AUD/USD pair.

US Dollar Faces Bearish Pressure Amid Policy Uncertainty and Market Sentiment, Capping AUD/USD Gains

On the US front, the broad-based US dollar was unable to maintain its upward trend and turned bearish due to a softer market tone. Traders have decided to wait on the sidelines for more clarity on US President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed policies before making fresh moves.

Despite this, the expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adopt a less dovish stance are still supporting the USD. The market is now pricing in a 50% chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, mainly due to concerns that Trump's potential tariffs and tax cuts could push inflation higher.

This outlook is supporting US Treasury bond yields, which is encouraging some buying of the USD. As a result, this keeps a lid on the upside potential for the AUD/USD pair. Traders are now waiting for US economic data and comments from key Federal Reserve officials for further direction.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD is trading at $0.65119, up 0.10% in the 4-hour timeframe, as the pair shows signs of recovery from earlier lows.

The pivot point at $0.65456 serves as a key level to watch, with a bullish breakout above this potentially opening the door to immediate resistance at $0.65918.

Further upside targets include $0.66399, aligning with improving market sentiment for the Australian dollar amid recent positive economic data.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.64497, followed by $0.64154 and $0.63763, where buyers may step in if the pair experiences any pullbacks. The 50-day EMA at $0.64945 is acting as a critical support level, reinforcing the bullish outlook while keeping short-term risks contained.

The RSI at 54 reflects neutral momentum, indicating room for both upside or downside movements depending on broader market catalysts.

Traders should monitor any break above $0.65456 for confirmation of further gains, while a drop below $0.64896 could negate the current upward bias and bring the $0.64497 support level into play.

For a strategic approach, an entry above $0.64895 is recommended, with a stop loss at $0.64503 to minimize downside risks. Profit targets are set at $0.65463 and potentially higher levels if resistance is breached.

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AUD/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Nov 21, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Resistance Levels: Immediate at $0.65918, followed by $0.66399.

- Support Levels: Key support at $0.64497, with additional levels at $0.64154 and $0.63763.

- Technical Indicators: RSI at 54 and 50 EMA at $0.64945 suggest balanced momentum with potential for further upside.

The AUD/USD is trading at $0.65119, up 0.10% in the 4-hour timeframe, as the pair shows signs of recovery from earlier lows.

The pivot point at $0.65456 serves as a key level to watch, with a bullish breakout above this potentially opening the door to immediate resistance at $0.65918.

Further upside targets include $0.66399, aligning with improving market sentiment for the Australian dollar amid recent positive economic data.

On the downside, immediate support is located at $0.64497, followed by $0.64154 and $0.63763, where buyers may step in if the pair experiences any pullbacks. The 50-day EMA at $0.64945 is acting as a critical support level, reinforcing the bullish outlook while keeping short-term risks contained.

The RSI at 54 reflects neutral momentum, indicating room for both upside or downside movements depending on broader market catalysts.

Traders should monitor any break above $0.65456 for confirmation of further gains, while a drop below $0.64896 could negate the current upward bias and bring the $0.64497 support level into play.

For a strategic approach, an entry above $0.64895 is recommended, with a stop loss at $0.64503 to minimize downside risks. Profit targets are set at $0.65463 and potentially higher levels if resistance is breached.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Above 0.64895

Take Profit – 0.65463

Stop Loss – 0.64503

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$568/ -$392

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$56/ -$39

AUD/USD

Daily Trade Ideas

AUD/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Nov 19, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

- Pivot Level: Holding above $0.64941 favors bullish momentum; failure could lead to a retest of $0.64497.

- Resistance Zones: Key levels to watch are $0.65463 and $0.65958 for potential breakout moves.

- Support Levels: Immediate support at $0.64497, with the 50-day EMA at $0.64805 providing additional strength.

AUD/USD is trading at $0.65108, up 0.05% as modest bullish momentum dominates the 4-hour chart. The pair is currently holding above the pivot point at $0.64941, signaling a constructive tone.

Immediate resistance is at $0.65463, with additional targets at $0.65958 and $0.66399 if the upward trend persists. On the downside, immediate support rests at $0.64497, followed by $0.64154 and $0.63763, which could provide a safety net if selling pressure emerges.

The 50-day EMA at $0.64805 reinforces the bullish outlook, acting as a dynamic support level, while the RSI at 62 suggests the pair has room for further upside before entering overbought territory. A successful test and hold above $0.64941 could set the stage for an advance toward $0.65463 in the short term, but a failure to maintain this level might lead to a deeper correction.

Traders may look to initiate long positions near the pivot point at $0.64944, targeting $0.65463 with a stop-loss placed at $0.64513 to manage downside risks effectively. However, caution is warranted as the broader market sentiment remains influenced by global risk factors and economic data releases.

Consider a buy limit at $0.64944, with a take-profit target at $0.65463 and a stop-loss at $0.64513 to capitalize on the bullish potential while managing downside risks.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD - Trade Ideas

Entry Price – Buy Limit 0.64944

Take Profit – 0.65463

Stop Loss – 0.64513

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$519/ -$431

Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$51/ -$43

AUD/USD

Technical Analysis

AUD/USD Price Analysis – Nov 19, 2024

By LHFX Technical Analysis
Nov 19, 2024
Audusd

Daily Price Outlook

Following the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) November Meeting Minutes on Tuesday, the Australian Dollar (AUD) remained stable against the US Dollar (USD). According to the minutes, the RBA board is concerned about the possibility of increased inflationary pressures, which underlined the importance of restrictive monetary policy.

Despite recent aggressive pronouncements by Federal Reserve (Fed) officials, the US Dollar (USD) is in a downward correction. However, the Greenback's downside may be limited since investors expect the next Trump administration to prioritize tax cuts and raise tariffs. These policies may increase inflation, limiting the pace of Fed rate decreases.

The US Dollar Index (DXY), a gauge of the USD against a basket of currencies, is presently trading at approximately 106.27. The greenback is struggling to gain ground as the Trump trade appears to be losing steam. However, stronger US economic statistics and cautionary words from the Federal Reserve (Fed) may limit the downside for the USD in the immediate term.

Australian Dollar Gains as RBA Maintains Hawkish Stance on Interest Rates

The Australian Dollar strengthened following hawkish remarks from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Domestically, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept interest rates at 4.35%. RBA Governor Michele Bullock emphasised that existing interest rates are adequately restrictive and will remain so until the central bank is confident in its inflation forecast.

Potential Impact of US-China Trade Tensions on the Australian Dollar

On the Australian front, Donald Trump has threatened to impose 60% tariffs on Chinese products in order to defend US companies and employment. Because China is Australia's largest trading partner, the probable negative spillovers from Trump's policies may cause the Australian Dollar (AUD) to fall.

Meanwhile, China's retail sales increased by 4.8% year on year in October, exceeding the projected 3.8% and the 3.2% growth witnessed in September. Meanwhile, industrial production increased by 5.3% year on year, falling short of the predicted 5.6% and the 5.4% growth seen in the prior period.

Australia's Labor Market Steady, Inflation Expectations Decline

On the economic front, Australia's most recent labour market report showed that the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.1% in October, with a minor gain in employment of 15.9K, all of which supported the perception of a relatively strong labour market.

Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate remained at 4.1% in October, matching market expectations. However, employment change data revealed that just 15.9K new positions were created in October, falling short of the expected 25.0K.

Consumer inflation expectations in Australia fell to 3.8% in November, down from 4.0% the previous month, and reached their lowest level since October 2021.

AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview
AUD/USD Price Chart - Source: Tradingview

AUD/USD – Technical Analysis

AUD/USD is trading at $0.65108, up 0.05% as modest bullish momentum dominates the 4-hour chart. The pair is currently holding above the pivot point at $0.64941, signaling a constructive tone.

The 50-day EMA at $0.64805 reinforces the bullish outlook, acting as a dynamic support level, while the RSI at 62 suggests the pair has room for further upside before entering overbought territory. A successful test and hold above $0.64941 could set the stage for an advance toward $0.65463 in the short term, but a failure to maintain this level might lead to a deeper correction.

Traders may look to initiate long positions near the pivot point at $0.64944, targeting $0.65463 with a stop-loss placed at $0.64513 to manage downside risks effectively. However, caution is warranted as the broader market sentiment remains influenced by global risk factors and economic data releases.

Consider a buy limit at $0.64944, with a take-profit target at $0.65463 and a stop-loss at $0.64513 to capitalize on the bullish potential while managing downside risks.

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AUD/USD