EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD is holding just above breakout support at $1.0787.
- RSI rebound and trendline break hint at recovery potential.
- Entry confirmed above $1.0787, target set at $1.0848, stop at $1.0757.
EUR/USD is attempting to stabilize above the $1.0787 mark, a key level near the breakout zone of a descending channel that had previously capped upside momentum throughout March.
Price action is currently consolidating near the 50-period SMA, which sits at $1.0803, acting as dynamic resistance. The RSI has improved modestly to 47.96, suggesting neutral momentum with a slight bullish tilt as it creeps back toward the 50 line.
The pair recently bounced from a low of $1.0740, which held as a critical support area. A confirmed break above the $1.0787 pivot opens the door toward $1.0848—yesterday’s high and the next major resistance.
The short-term structure shows buyers gradually reclaiming lost ground, but sustained bullish momentum requires a clean move above the 50-SMA and break of the recent high.
On the downside, $1.0784 acts as immediate support, followed by the stop-loss buffer at $1.0757 and a more significant support zone at $1.0733. Any breach below these levels would signal weakness and could reignite bearish pressure.
The EUR/USD outlook remains cautiously bullish if price sustains above $1.0787. A break higher could expose $1.0848, while failure risks another dip toward $1.0757.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.07877
Take Profit – 1.08485
Stop Loss – 1.07579
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$608/ -$298
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$60/ -$29
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD breaks above descending channel and 50 EMA
- RSI at 61.78 confirms bullish momentum
- Price structure favors buying above $1.08120 with $1.08849 target
The euro is showing signs of a trend reversal after a decisive breakout above the descending channel that had constrained price action since mid-March.
Trading at $1.08217, EUR/USD has cleared the key pivot level of $1.08120, signaling renewed bullish interest and a potential shift in short-term market sentiment.
The move comes after a sharp rebound from the $1.07585 level, backed by a breakout above the 50-period SMA ($1.07913), now acting as dynamic support.
The recent rally is technically significant, as it follows weeks of downward momentum and coincides with a strong RSI rebound.
The Relative Strength Index currently reads 61.78, pointing to growing bullish momentum without yet entering overbought territory.
Traders are eyeing a move toward the next resistance levels at $1.08544 and $1.08849, with extended upside potential toward $1.09177.
The setup favors a continuation higher, particularly if EUR/USD holds above the $1.08120 pivot. A failure to maintain this breakout level could lead to a retest of $1.07585 and, if breached, expose support at $1.07214 and $1.06780.
For now, however, the price structure favors buying dips, with the breakout confirmed by both price action and momentum.
A favorable risk-reward setup is evident for long positions entered above $1.08120, targeting $1.08849, with a stop loss below $1.07585.
The shift in structure and the break above the channel suggest further gains are likely, barring any major macro-driven dollar strength.
EUR/USD has confirmed a bullish breakout above $1.08120. The trend favors upside toward $1.08849, while $1.07585 remains key support to protect the bias.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08120
Take Profit – 1.08849
Stop Loss – 1.07585
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$729/ -$535
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$72/ -$53
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 31, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The euro (EUR) rebounded strongly, with EUR/USD rising to near 1.0820 during North American trading hours. The recovery follows reports that the European Commission (EC) is preparing trade concessions to ease tensions with the United States, ahead of a formal tariff announcement by President Donald Trump scheduled for Wednesday.
According to Bloomberg, the European Union is working to identify concessions it is willing to offer in exchange for partial removal or delay of U.S. tariffs—particularly the 25% levy on foreign automobiles set to take effect on April 2.
This diplomatic overture could help de-escalate fears of a full-scale Eurozone-U.S. trade war, especially for export-heavy sectors like German automakers. Germany sends roughly 13% of its auto exports to the U.S., and the proposed tariffs could seriously dent their global competitiveness.
“We regret the 25% auto tariffs and the new measures coming on April 2, but we are preparing for all of these,” said EC spokesperson Olof Gill. He described Europe’s potential response as “timely, robust, and well-calibrated.”
Officials Warn of Global Fallout from Auto Tariffs
The backlash from Europe has been swift. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned the tariff policy, calling it a “lose-lose situation” that undermines global prosperity. Echoing that view, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that while the inflationary impact of tariffs may be temporary, the damage to growth could be long-lasting.
“The worst outcome is a vicious circle of tariffs and retaliation,” de Guindos said, adding that trade disruptions are “extremely detrimental” to Eurozone growth.
His comments come amid growing monetary policy uncertainty. De Guindos said it was “very difficult to say” what the ECB might decide in April, citing fluid economic conditions.
Mixed Economic Data from Eurozone
Further complicating the outlook, preliminary March inflation figures from France and Spain disappointed:
France CPI (EU Norm): +0.9% YoY (vs. 1.1% est.)
Spain HICP: +2.2% YoY (down from 2.9%)
The weaker-than-expected inflation data could give the ECB more flexibility, but also reinforces concerns about stagnating demand within the Eurozone.
U.S. PCE Data Boosts Fed Dilemma
Across the Atlantic, inflation remains sticky. Core PCE inflation—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—rose 2.8% YoY in February, above the 2.7% forecast and January’s 2.6% print. On a monthly basis, core PCE climbed 0.4%, also exceeding expectations.
Despite the upside surprise, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) slipped toward 104.00, as traders adjusted positions ahead of potential Fed rate commentary.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins acknowledged that tariffs are “likely to increase inflation in the near term,” though she sees the rise as potentially short-lived. Still, she advocated for “active patience,” suggesting the Fed will likely hold rates in the 4.25%–4.50% range for an extended period.
EUR/USD Outlook: All Eyes on April 2 and Fed Guidance
As markets brace for Trump’s formal auto tariff announcement on Wednesday, volatility is expected to remain elevated. If the EU’s proposed concessions gain traction, EUR/USD could build on its recovery. However, failure to secure a diplomatic resolution—especially with tariffs hitting major Eurozone exports—could quickly reverse gains.
Simultaneously, traders will continue parsing U.S. inflation data and Fed signals, with rate expectations playing a pivotal role in shaping currency direction through Q2.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The euro is showing signs of a trend reversal after a decisive breakout above the descending channel that had constrained price action since mid-March.
Trading at $1.08217, EUR/USD has cleared the key pivot level of $1.08120, signaling renewed bullish interest and a potential shift in short-term market sentiment.
The move comes after a sharp rebound from the $1.07585 level, backed by a breakout above the 50-period SMA ($1.07913), now acting as dynamic support.
The recent rally is technically significant, as it follows weeks of downward momentum and coincides with a strong RSI rebound.
The Relative Strength Index currently reads 61.78, pointing to growing bullish momentum without yet entering overbought territory.
Traders are eyeing a move toward the next resistance levels at $1.08544 and $1.08849, with extended upside potential toward $1.09177.
The setup favors a continuation higher, particularly if EUR/USD holds above the $1.08120 pivot. A failure to maintain this breakout level could lead to a retest of $1.07585 and, if breached, expose support at $1.07214 and $1.06780.
For now, however, the price structure favors buying dips, with the breakout confirmed by both price action and momentum.
A favorable risk-reward setup is evident for long positions entered above $1.08120, targeting $1.08849, with a stop loss below $1.07585.
The shift in structure and the break above the channel suggest further gains are likely, barring any major macro-driven dollar strength.
EUR/USD has confirmed a bullish breakout above $1.08120. The trend favors upside toward $1.08849, while $1.07585 remains key support to protect the bias.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday's European trading hours, the EUR/USD currency pair dropped to near the 1.0764 level, facing strong bearish pressure as trade tensions between the United States and the European Union (EU) escalated.
This sharp decline in the major currency pair comes ahead of the anticipated announcement by US President Donald Trump on April 2, which will impose reciprocal tariffs.
US Tariff Announcement Weighs on Market Sentiment
The US administration’s decision to impose 25% tariffs on automobile imports is a key driver behind the recent decline in EUR/USD. The tariffs, which will take effect on April 2, are expected to create turmoil in the global auto industry, with major impacts on both the US and European economies.
US imports of cars from Germany, which make up a large part of Germany's car exports, will get more expensive. This will make them less competitive in the global market. The news has caused a drop in the stock prices of car companies, adding to the overall negative market mood.
As a result, US Federal Reserve officials are worried that Trump's tariff plan could lead to higher inflation. Boston Fed President Susan Collins said the tariffs would raise inflation in the short term but could be temporary.
She also pointed out that the Fed should stay flexible with its policies, suggesting that keeping interest rates the same might be a good choice given these economic challenges.
Impact of US Tariff Plans on the Eurozone Economy and Trade Relations
On the other side, as the US tariff plans ramp up, the European Commission (EC) is preparing to impose retaliatory tariffs on US products. This growing trade tension is creating more uncertainty for the Euro. German car manufacturers, who rely heavily on exports to the US, are especially worried.
The proposed tariffs could significantly hurt their ability to compete in the US market, impacting the Eurozone’s overall economic growth.
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has criticized the US for its protectionist approach, warning that these tariffs would create a lose-lose scenario for both sides.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has also raised concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s trade policies. ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that while the inflationary impact might be temporary, the tariffs could have long-lasting effects on economic growth in the Eurozone.
Slower Inflation Data in France and Spain Offers Temporary Relief for the Euro Amid Trade Concerns
On the economic front, the latest inflation data from France and Spain has shown slower-than-expected price pressures, providing some temporary relief for the Euro. France’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose by 0.9%, lower than the expected 1.1%.
Similarly, Spain’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) showed a slowdown in inflation, rising 2.2% compared to 2.9% in the prior period.
However, the softer inflation numbers are unlikely to prevent the continued decline of the Euro, as the broader trade and tariff concerns overshadow the inflation data.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading modestly lower at $1.07870, down 0.01% as the euro struggles to regain footing amid mixed technical signals and cautious market sentiment.
Price action remains below the pivot point at $1.08058, indicating a short-term bearish bias while the pair hovers just under the 50-period EMA at $1.07942.
The technical outlook suggests that euro bears are maintaining control for now, as the pair continues to drift within a descending channel on the 4-hour chart.
Immediate support is noted at $1.07656, a level that previously provided a short-term bounce. A sustained break below this could expose deeper support levels at $1.07214 and $1.06790.
On the upside, resistance stands at $1.08544, followed by $1.08841 and $1.09177—key areas that bulls would need to overcome to shift sentiment meaningfully.
Momentum indicators remain subdued, and without a catalyst to propel the euro above its pivot, sellers may continue to dominate.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, giving neither side a definitive edge, but the broader structure favors downside as long as EUR/USD remains capped below the $1.08058 threshold.
From a tactical standpoint, a short position below $1.08052 may offer a favorable setup, with targets at $1.07406 and a stop placed near $1.08364.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD remains bearish below the $1.08058 pivot, with immediate support at $1.07656.
- 50 EMA at $1.07942 reinforces downside pressure on intraday moves.
- A break below $1.07656 may open the door toward $1.07214 and $1.06790.
The EUR/USD pair is trading modestly lower at $1.07870, down 0.01% as the euro struggles to regain footing amid mixed technical signals and cautious market sentiment.
Price action remains below the pivot point at $1.08058, indicating a short-term bearish bias while the pair hovers just under the 50-period EMA at $1.07942.
The technical outlook suggests that euro bears are maintaining control for now, as the pair continues to drift within a descending channel on the 4-hour chart.
Immediate support is noted at $1.07656, a level that previously provided a short-term bounce. A sustained break below this could expose deeper support levels at $1.07214 and $1.06790.
On the upside, resistance stands at $1.08544, followed by $1.08841 and $1.09177—key areas that bulls would need to overcome to shift sentiment meaningfully.
Momentum indicators remain subdued, and without a catalyst to propel the euro above its pivot, sellers may continue to dominate.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains neutral, giving neither side a definitive edge, but the broader structure favors downside as long as EUR/USD remains capped below the $1.08058 threshold.
From a tactical standpoint, a short position below $1.08052 may offer a favorable setup, with targets at $1.07406 and a stop placed near $1.08364.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08052
Take Profit – 1.07406
Stop Loss – 1.08364
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$646/ -$312
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$64/ -$31
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD holds below pivot at $1.08058, maintaining a near-term bearish tone.
- A break below $1.07656 could expose $1.07214 and $1.06780 support zones.
- Short setup in play: Sell below $1.08056, targeting $1.07433, with stop at $1.08368.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.07875, posting a slight gain of +0.02% in early European hours. Despite the modest uptick, the currency remains below its pivot point at $1.08058, signaling that bearish sentiment still lingers as price action struggles to gain upside traction.
The 4-hour chart shows price comfortably beneath the 50-period EMA at $1.08608, further reinforcing near-term downside pressure.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08544, aligning closely with the 50 EMA, followed by additional barriers at $1.08841 and $1.09177. Bulls would need a decisive break above these levels to reassert control, but current momentum indicators suggest a lack of conviction from buyers.
On the downside, $1.07656 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.07214 and $1.06780, levels that could come into play if selling accelerates below the pivot.
Given the current technical structure, a short bias remains favored below $1.08056, with a tactical sell setup targeting $1.07433, and a stop loss positioned at $1.08368 to manage risk. RSI and MACD indicators lean neutral to slightly bearish, with no clear signs of reversal yet.
In summary, while price hovers just below key resistance, the path of least resistance appears to favor sellers unless buyers reclaim ground above the $1.085 level with conviction.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08056
Take Profit – 1.07433
Stop Loss – 1.08368
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$623/ -$312
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$62/ -$31
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 26, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading hours on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair climbed towards 1.0780, benefiting from a weaker US dollar.
The Greenback came under pressure following disappointing US economic data and rising uncertainty surrounding President Donald Trump’s trade policy.
Although, the upside remains limited due to the ECB’s dovish tone. Traders will closely monitor upcoming US economic data and any developments regarding Trump’s trade tariffs, which could influence the next moves in the currency market.
US Economic Data Signals Weakness, Weighing on the Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remained on the back foot after Tuesday’s release of weak consumer confidence data.
The Conference Board reported that US consumer confidence dropped to its lowest level in more than four years in March, reflecting heightened concerns over economic slowdown and policy uncertainty.
This has fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve might consider further policy adjustments to support economic stability.
On the flip side, Investors remain cautious as uncertainty looms over Trump’s reciprocal tariff plans set for next week.
On Monday, Trump hinted that not all tariffs would be imposed on the April 2 deadline and that some countries might receive exemptions, but he provided no further details.
The lack of clarity has heightened market anxiety, adding to pressure on the US dollar and contributed to the EUR/USD pair losses.
ECB Dovish Signals Could Cap Euro Gains
Despite the US dollar’s weakness, the dovish signals from the European Central Bank (ECB) could limit the euro’s upside trend.
ECB Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau suggested on Tuesday that there is still room for further rate cuts, indicating that the deposit rate could decline from 2.5% to 2% by the end of summer.
ECB policymaker Fabio Panetta stressed the need for a data-driven approach, noting that as inflation falls and interest rates reach neutral levels, policy decisions become more uncertain. This suggests the ECB may take a cautious stance, potentially slowing the euro’s rise against the US dollar.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.07875, posting a slight gain of +0.02% in early European hours. Despite the modest uptick, the currency remains below its pivot point at $1.08058, signaling that bearish sentiment still lingers as price action struggles to gain upside traction.
The 4-hour chart shows price comfortably beneath the 50-period EMA at $1.08608, further reinforcing near-term downside pressure.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08544, aligning closely with the 50 EMA, followed by additional barriers at $1.08841 and $1.09177. Bulls would need a decisive break above these levels to reassert control, but current momentum indicators suggest a lack of conviction from buyers.
On the downside, $1.07656 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.07214 and $1.06780, levels that could come into play if selling accelerates below the pivot.
Given the current technical structure, a short bias remains favored below $1.08056, with a tactical sell setup targeting $1.07433, and a stop loss positioned at $1.08368 to manage risk. RSI and MACD indicators lean neutral to slightly bearish, with no clear signs of reversal yet.
In summary, while price hovers just below key resistance, the path of least resistance appears to favor sellers unless buyers reclaim ground above the $1.085 level with conviction.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair stopped its three-day decline, trading around 1.0840 on Monday morning.
This rebound happened due to growing concerns over a possible slowdown in the US economy, partly caused by trade policy uncertainties under President Donald Trump, which have negatively impacted the US Dollar.
As a result, investors are now focused on the recently released Eurozone’s manufacturing sector data, which showed some signs of recovery. This was seen as another key factor that underpinned the EUR/USD pair.
Mixed Eurozone PMI Data Impacts EUR/USD Performance
On the EUR front, the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector showed some signs of recovery, while the services sector underperformed in March.
According to the latest data from the HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.7 in March, up from 47.6 in February, surpassing the market expectation of 48. This marks a slight easing of the manufacturing contraction, providing some support for the Euro.
Meanwhile, the Services PMI in the Eurozone declined to 50.4 in March from 50.6 in February, falling short of the anticipated 51 and marking a four-month low.
The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite increased slightly to 50.4 in March, from 50.2 in February, reflecting a modest improvement in overall business activity across the region.
In Germany, the region's largest economy, the manufacturing sector performed better than expected, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 48.3 in March, up from 46.5 in February and surpassing the expected 47.7.
This was the highest reading in 31 months, signaling a recovery in the industrial sector. On the other hand, the Services PMI in Germany fell to 50.2, down from 51.1 in February, hitting a four-month low and adding to concerns about the region's growth prospects.
Therefore, the mixed PMI data, with manufacturing showing recovery and services underperforming, may support the Euro but limit its upside, keeping the EUR/USD pair range-bound as investors await further economic signals.
US Economic Concerns and Geopolitical Developments Weigh on the Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains under pressure due to growing concerns over President Trump's trade policies, especially his approach to reciprocal tariffs.
However, the White House is revising its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 deadline, with reports suggesting some industry-specific tariffs may be dropped while new tariffs will be imposed on countries with strong trade ties to the US.
This move aims to address trade imbalances but has raised concerns that it could slow down global economic growth, particularly in the Eurozone, which is closely tied to US trade.
Moreover, the geopolitical tensions also played a role in market sentiment, with easing concerns following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh over the weekend.
The ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Ukraine war and President Trump’s calls for an end to the conflict have helped reduce some geopolitical risk, contributing to improved investor sentiment.
Therefore, the US dollar’s pressure from trade policy concerns and geopolitical tensions, alongside improved sentiment from the Ukraine talks, could lead to a weaker dollar, potentially supporting a higher EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading slightly lower at $1.08457, down 0.02% on the day, as the pair navigates a tight range ahead of key U.S. economic data later this week.
Despite the marginal pullback, the euro remains above the pivotal support at $1.08049—a level that continues to attract buying interest and has helped stabilize recent price action.
Technically, the 4-hour chart reveals that EUR/USD is caught between its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08802 and the pivot zone near $1.08049.
A clear move above the EMA could trigger fresh upside momentum toward immediate resistance at $1.08680, followed by $1.09177 and $1.09516.
These levels correspond to recent consolidation zones and would likely require increased volume to break decisively.
On the downside, should the pair slip below $1.08049, initial support rests at $1.07656, with deeper floors at $1.07214 and $1.06780. A breach below $1.07656 would indicate waning bullish control and potentially invite additional selling pressure.
As long as the pair holds above $1.08049, the near-term bias remains slightly bullish—but momentum is fragile and driven by upcoming data catalysts.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD trades just above key support at $1.08049, holding a slight bullish tilt.
- 50-day EMA at $1.08802 caps upside; breakout above $1.08680 could fuel momentum.
- Entry strategy: Buy above $1.08169, target $1.08869, stop loss at $1.07734.
EUR/USD is trading slightly lower at $1.08457, down 0.02% on the day, as the pair navigates a tight range ahead of key U.S. economic data later this week.
Despite the marginal pullback, the euro remains above the pivotal support at $1.08049—a level that continues to attract buying interest and has helped stabilize recent price action.
Technically, the 4-hour chart reveals that EUR/USD is caught between its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08802 and the pivot zone near $1.08049.
A clear move above the EMA could trigger fresh upside momentum toward immediate resistance at $1.08680, followed by $1.09177 and $1.09516.
These levels correspond to recent consolidation zones and would likely require increased volume to break decisively.
On the downside, should the pair slip below $1.08049, initial support rests at $1.07656, with deeper floors at $1.07214 and $1.06780. A breach below $1.07656 would indicate waning bullish control and potentially invite additional selling pressure.
As long as the pair holds above $1.08049, the near-term bias remains slightly bullish—but momentum is fragile and driven by upcoming data catalysts.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08169
Take Profit – 1.08869
Stop Loss – 1.07734
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$700/ -$435
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$70/ -$43
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained well offered around 1.0820. The pair faced pressure due to a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising concerns over trade tensions.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to around 104.15 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its restrictive stance on interest rates.
This dampened expectations of any near-term rate cuts, further supporting the USD and weighing on the euro. As a result, EUR/USD struggled to find demand and continued its bearish trajectory.
Fed’s Tight Policy and Economic Uncertainty Weigh on EUR/USD
On the US front, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row, maintaining them within the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there was no rush to cut rates, pointing to significant uncertainty in the US economic outlook.
His comments reinforced expectations that monetary policy would remain tight for an extended period, boosting the US Dollar and putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Furthermore, Powell cautioned that new policies under US President Donald Trump could slow economic growth and push inflation higher.
This has led market participants to anticipate potential policy changes that could impact global trade and inflation trends, adding to concerns in the financial markets.
The Fed’s tight policy stance and Powell’s warnings strengthened the US Dollar, making the euro less attractive. As a result, EUR/USD faced downward pressure, struggling to gain momentum amid economic uncertainty.
Euro Weakens Amid Concerns Over US Tariffs and Trade War Risks
On the other hand, the shared currency dropped further as investors reacted to concerns over Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs, which are set for discussion on April 2.
Market speculation suggests these tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, leading to higher inflation and slower economic growth.
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that a trade war with the US could hurt economic growth, even if its impact on inflation is temporary.
Investors are worried about Germany, a major exporter to the US, as Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on foreign cars.
Currently, the US charges only 2.5% on German cars, while the Eurozone imposes a 10% tax on US cars. These concerns have weakened the euro, keeping it under pressure against the stronger US Dollar.
Economic Developments and Market Outlook
On the economic front, investors are closely watching the upcoming US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, due on Monday, In Europe, the German government has approved a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund to boost economic resilience, with support from both the Conservatives and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This move is aimed at protecting the economy amid concerns over a potential trade war.
For the EUR/USD pair, the focus remains on the US economic data and how it may impact the US Dollar, while Europe's efforts to stabilize its economy could help support the euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08355, showing minimal movement as traders assess market conditions. The pair has been struggling to gain momentum, hovering below the 50-day EMA at $1.08972, which continues to act as dynamic resistance.
The pivot point at $1.08553 serves as an inflection level for today’s session, indicating that bearish momentum may persist if the pair remains below this threshold.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08838, with further hurdles at $1.09177 and $1.09516. A break above these levels could trigger fresh buying interest, but current sentiment remains cautious due to renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.08152, followed by $1.07895 and $1.07656. A sustained move below $1.08553 would confirm a bearish bias, pushing the pair toward these lower levels.
If sellers maintain control, EUR/USD could face extended downside pressure, with the 50-day EMA reinforcing resistance around $1.08972.
Traders should monitor $1.08544 as a key level, with selling opportunities below this price targeting $1.08152, while upside breakouts remain capped near $1.08838.
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