EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 24, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair stopped its three-day decline, trading around 1.0840 on Monday morning.
This rebound happened due to growing concerns over a possible slowdown in the US economy, partly caused by trade policy uncertainties under President Donald Trump, which have negatively impacted the US Dollar.
As a result, investors are now focused on the recently released Eurozone’s manufacturing sector data, which showed some signs of recovery. This was seen as another key factor that underpinned the EUR/USD pair.
Mixed Eurozone PMI Data Impacts EUR/USD Performance
On the EUR front, the Eurozone’s manufacturing sector showed some signs of recovery, while the services sector underperformed in March.
According to the latest data from the HCOB Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) Survey, the Eurozone Manufacturing PMI improved to 48.7 in March, up from 47.6 in February, surpassing the market expectation of 48. This marks a slight easing of the manufacturing contraction, providing some support for the Euro.
Meanwhile, the Services PMI in the Eurozone declined to 50.4 in March from 50.6 in February, falling short of the anticipated 51 and marking a four-month low.
The HCOB Eurozone PMI Composite increased slightly to 50.4 in March, from 50.2 in February, reflecting a modest improvement in overall business activity across the region.
In Germany, the region's largest economy, the manufacturing sector performed better than expected, with the Manufacturing PMI rising to 48.3 in March, up from 46.5 in February and surpassing the expected 47.7.
This was the highest reading in 31 months, signaling a recovery in the industrial sector. On the other hand, the Services PMI in Germany fell to 50.2, down from 51.1 in February, hitting a four-month low and adding to concerns about the region's growth prospects.
Therefore, the mixed PMI data, with manufacturing showing recovery and services underperforming, may support the Euro but limit its upside, keeping the EUR/USD pair range-bound as investors await further economic signals.
US Economic Concerns and Geopolitical Developments Weigh on the Dollar
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar remains under pressure due to growing concerns over President Trump's trade policies, especially his approach to reciprocal tariffs.
However, the White House is revising its tariff strategy ahead of the April 2 deadline, with reports suggesting some industry-specific tariffs may be dropped while new tariffs will be imposed on countries with strong trade ties to the US.
This move aims to address trade imbalances but has raised concerns that it could slow down global economic growth, particularly in the Eurozone, which is closely tied to US trade.
Moreover, the geopolitical tensions also played a role in market sentiment, with easing concerns following talks between Ukrainian and US officials in Riyadh over the weekend.
The ongoing efforts to broker a ceasefire in the Ukraine war and President Trump’s calls for an end to the conflict have helped reduce some geopolitical risk, contributing to improved investor sentiment.
Therefore, the US dollar’s pressure from trade policy concerns and geopolitical tensions, alongside improved sentiment from the Ukraine talks, could lead to a weaker dollar, potentially supporting a higher EUR/USD pair.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading slightly lower at $1.08457, down 0.02% on the day, as the pair navigates a tight range ahead of key U.S. economic data later this week.
Despite the marginal pullback, the euro remains above the pivotal support at $1.08049—a level that continues to attract buying interest and has helped stabilize recent price action.
Technically, the 4-hour chart reveals that EUR/USD is caught between its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.08802 and the pivot zone near $1.08049.
A clear move above the EMA could trigger fresh upside momentum toward immediate resistance at $1.08680, followed by $1.09177 and $1.09516.
These levels correspond to recent consolidation zones and would likely require increased volume to break decisively.
On the downside, should the pair slip below $1.08049, initial support rests at $1.07656, with deeper floors at $1.07214 and $1.06780. A breach below $1.07656 would indicate waning bullish control and potentially invite additional selling pressure.
As long as the pair holds above $1.08049, the near-term bias remains slightly bullish—but momentum is fragile and driven by upcoming data catalysts.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained well offered around 1.0820. The pair faced pressure due to a stronger US Dollar (USD) and rising concerns over trade tensions.
The US Dollar Index (DXY) climbed to around 104.15 as the Federal Reserve (Fed) maintained its restrictive stance on interest rates.
This dampened expectations of any near-term rate cuts, further supporting the USD and weighing on the euro. As a result, EUR/USD struggled to find demand and continued its bearish trajectory.
Fed’s Tight Policy and Economic Uncertainty Weigh on EUR/USD
On the US front, the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged for the second time in a row, maintaining them within the 4.25%-4.50% range.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that there was no rush to cut rates, pointing to significant uncertainty in the US economic outlook.
His comments reinforced expectations that monetary policy would remain tight for an extended period, boosting the US Dollar and putting pressure on the EUR/USD pair.
Furthermore, Powell cautioned that new policies under US President Donald Trump could slow economic growth and push inflation higher.
This has led market participants to anticipate potential policy changes that could impact global trade and inflation trends, adding to concerns in the financial markets.
The Fed’s tight policy stance and Powell’s warnings strengthened the US Dollar, making the euro less attractive. As a result, EUR/USD faced downward pressure, struggling to gain momentum amid economic uncertainty.
Euro Weakens Amid Concerns Over US Tariffs and Trade War Risks
On the other hand, the shared currency dropped further as investors reacted to concerns over Trump’s proposed reciprocal tariffs, which are set for discussion on April 2.
Market speculation suggests these tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, leading to higher inflation and slower economic growth.
ECB President Christine Lagarde warned that a trade war with the US could hurt economic growth, even if its impact on inflation is temporary.
Investors are worried about Germany, a major exporter to the US, as Trump has threatened a 25% tariff on foreign cars.
Currently, the US charges only 2.5% on German cars, while the Eurozone imposes a 10% tax on US cars. These concerns have weakened the euro, keeping it under pressure against the stronger US Dollar.
Economic Developments and Market Outlook
On the economic front, investors are closely watching the upcoming US S&P Global Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) data for March, due on Monday, In Europe, the German government has approved a 500-billion-euro infrastructure fund to boost economic resilience, with support from both the Conservatives and the Social Democratic Party (SPD). This move is aimed at protecting the economy amid concerns over a potential trade war.
For the EUR/USD pair, the focus remains on the US economic data and how it may impact the US Dollar, while Europe's efforts to stabilize its economy could help support the euro.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08355, showing minimal movement as traders assess market conditions. The pair has been struggling to gain momentum, hovering below the 50-day EMA at $1.08972, which continues to act as dynamic resistance.
The pivot point at $1.08553 serves as an inflection level for today’s session, indicating that bearish momentum may persist if the pair remains below this threshold.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08838, with further hurdles at $1.09177 and $1.09516. A break above these levels could trigger fresh buying interest, but current sentiment remains cautious due to renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.08152, followed by $1.07895 and $1.07656. A sustained move below $1.08553 would confirm a bearish bias, pushing the pair toward these lower levels.
If sellers maintain control, EUR/USD could face extended downside pressure, with the 50-day EMA reinforcing resistance around $1.08972.
Traders should monitor $1.08544 as a key level, with selling opportunities below this price targeting $1.08152, while upside breakouts remain capped near $1.08838.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish sentiment dominates below the pivot at $1.08553, targeting $1.08152 and $1.07895.
- The 50-day EMA at $1.08972 acts as key resistance, limiting any short-term upside.
- Entry Price: Sell below $1.08544, with a take profit at $1.08152 and stop loss at $1.08820.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08355, showing minimal movement as traders assess market conditions. The pair has been struggling to gain momentum, hovering below the 50-day EMA at $1.08972, which continues to act as dynamic resistance.
The pivot point at $1.08553 serves as an inflection level for today’s session, indicating that bearish momentum may persist if the pair remains below this threshold.
Immediate resistance is located at $1.08838, with further hurdles at $1.09177 and $1.09516. A break above these levels could trigger fresh buying interest, but current sentiment remains cautious due to renewed strength in the U.S. dollar, supported by a hawkish Federal Reserve stance.
On the downside, immediate support rests at $1.08152, followed by $1.07895 and $1.07656. A sustained move below $1.08553 would confirm a bearish bias, pushing the pair toward these lower levels.
If sellers maintain control, EUR/USD could face extended downside pressure, with the 50-day EMA reinforcing resistance around $1.08972.
Traders should monitor $1.08544 as a key level, with selling opportunities below this price targeting $1.08152, while upside breakouts remain capped near $1.08838.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08544
Take Profit – 1.08152
Stop Loss – 1.08820
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$392/ -$276
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$39/ -$27
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD remains bearish below $1.09505, with support at $1.09015 and $1.08735 in focus.
- 50-day EMA at $1.08945 is acting as a key support level, with a break below accelerating losses.
- A move above $1.09710 could trigger a rebound, but broader sentiment remains cautious.
EUR/USD is trading around $1.09246, slightly lower as the pair struggles to maintain upward momentum. The currency pair remains under pressure after failing to hold above its $1.09505 pivot point.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.09710, while a move beyond $1.09922 could pave the way for a test of $1.10130. However, with the euro showing signs of exhaustion, upside potential appears limited.
On the downside, $1.09015 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.08735 and $1.08472 if selling pressure intensifies. The 50-day EMA at $1.08945 is offering a dynamic support zone, but a break below this level could accelerate bearish momentum.
The pair is currently facing headwinds from shifting interest rate expectations in both the U.S. and Eurozone. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach toward rate cuts, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, has kept the dollar resilient.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank policymakers have signaled a potential easing cycle later in the year, keeping the euro subdued.
Traders should watch for a break below $1.09505, which could confirm further downside toward $1.09015 and $1.08735.
Conversely, a push above $1.09710 may trigger a short-term rally, but with macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on sentiment, sustained gains could be limited.
For now, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure. If the pair breaches $1.09015, expect sellers to gain control, potentially driving prices toward $1.08735 in the near term.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.09507
Take Profit – 1.09019
Stop Loss – 1.09704
Risk to Reward – 1: 2.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$488/ -$197
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$48/ -$19
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 19, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to stop its downward trend and remained under pressure around the 1.0873 level. However, the decline was driven by a strengthening US dollar, which gained momentum ahead of the Federal Reserve’s upcoming interest rate decision.
Another factor weighing on the EUR/USD pair is the Euro's underperformance, despite Germany’s debt restructuring plan, which raises concerns about inflation and the European Central Bank's cautious approach to monetary expansion.
Impact of Fed's Interest Rate Decision and Market Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar gained traction as the CME FedWatch tool shows the Fed is likely to keep interest rates steady at 4.25%-4.50%. This would be the second consecutive meeting where the Fed chooses a "wait and see" approach, keeping borrowing rates unchanged.
Market expectations are high that the Fed will stay cautious, especially as they await more clarity on the US economic outlook under President Donald Trump. Investors are increasingly confident in this decision, anticipating no immediate changes to rates.
Euro Weakness Amidst Domestic and Geopolitical Developments
Despite Germany’s approval of a debt restructuring plan aimed at stimulating economic growth and increasing defense spending, the Euro underperformed, contributing to the decline in the EUR/USD pair. The plan is seen as pro-growth for the Eurozone, but it also raises concerns about inflationary pressures.
As the plan progresses, higher inflation could prompt the European Central Bank (ECB) to adopt a more cautious approach to its monetary policy, slowing down its current cycle of expansion.
The ECB has already reduced interest rates six times since June 2024, and the ongoing concerns about inflation have created uncertainty for the Eurozone's economic outlook. These factors combined are weighing heavily on the Euro, making it harder for the currency to gain support despite efforts to boost growth.
As a result, the EUR/USD pair remains under pressure, and market participants are closely monitoring the ECB’s next moves.
Moreover, the impact of US tariff policies remains a significant concern, as President Trump's agenda could worsen price pressures in the Eurozone. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced that each country will soon receive their specific "tariff" numbers, with April 2 set as an important date for these updates.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading around $1.09246, slightly lower as the pair struggles to maintain upward momentum. The currency pair remains under pressure after failing to hold above its $1.09505 pivot point.
Immediate resistance stands at $1.09710, while a move beyond $1.09922 could pave the way for a test of $1.10130. However, with the euro showing signs of exhaustion, upside potential appears limited.
On the downside, $1.09015 serves as immediate support, followed by $1.08735 and $1.08472 if selling pressure intensifies. The 50-day EMA at $1.08945 is offering a dynamic support zone, but a break below this level could accelerate bearish momentum.
The pair is currently facing headwinds from shifting interest rate expectations in both the U.S. and Eurozone. The Federal Reserve’s cautious approach toward rate cuts, combined with stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data, has kept the dollar resilient.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank policymakers have signaled a potential easing cycle later in the year, keeping the euro subdued.
Traders should watch for a break below $1.09505, which could confirm further downside toward $1.09015 and $1.08735.
Conversely, a push above $1.09710 may trigger a short-term rally, but with macroeconomic uncertainty weighing on sentiment, sustained gains could be limited.
For now, EUR/USD remains vulnerable to further downside pressure. If the pair breaches $1.09015, expect sellers to gain control, potentially driving prices toward $1.08735 in the near term.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 17, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
EUR/USD extended its upward trend and remained well bid around 1.0910 during European trading hours on Monday, as investors awaits for the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming interest rate decision on Wednesday. The currency pair traded in a tight range as market participants sought clarity on the Fed’s monetary policy outlook.
Impact of Fed's Policy and Economic Uncertainty on EUR/USD Pair
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has been losing traction despite expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady at 5.25%-5.50%.
However, investors are more focused on the Fed’s "dot plot," which gives clues about future rate changes. In the last meeting, Fed officials predicted three rate cuts this year, so traders will be watching closely to see if that changes.
Another key focus will be Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on economic growth, jobs, and inflation. If he hints at any shift in policy, it could impact the dollar and financial markets.
Meanwhile, uncertainty is rising due to concerns over potential tariff policies under former US President Donald Trump.
Adding to the worries, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently suggested that the government may need to adjust its spending to avoid financial risks. This has raised fears about possible economic disruptions in the coming months.
Therefore, the EUR/USD pair may strengthen if the Fed signals delayed rate cuts or economic concerns rise. However, uncertainty over US policies and spending risks could limit gains, keeping the pair volatile.
Euro Strengthens Amid German Fiscal Expansion and Geopolitical Developments
Across the ocean, the shared currency remained firm as German leaders agreed to establish a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and ease borrowing restrictions through changes in the ‘debt brake’ rule.
This move, expected to be approved in the lower house of Parliament on Tuesday, is seen as a significant step to boost economic growth.
However, the Reuters poll conducted from March 10-14 showed that economists raised their Eurozone growth forecasts for 2026 from 1.2% to 1.3%, reflecting optimism over Germany’s fiscal expansion.
Apart from this, positive developments in Russia-Ukraine peace talks have further supported the Euro. Donald Trump is set to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin on Tuesday to discuss a ceasefire, following Ukraine’s acceptance of a 30-day truce after negotiations in Saudi Arabia.
EUR/USD Faces Risks from US-EU Trade Tensions and Fed Policy Outlook
Despite EUR/USD’s recovery, the escalating trade tensions between the US and the European Union (EU) pose a risk to the Euro’s gains.
On Thursday, Trump threatened to impose 200% tariffs on European alcohol imports, retaliating against the EU’s proposed tariffs on US goods in response to a 25% levy on steel and aluminum.
ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos warned that a full-scale trade war would negatively impact global economic growth, stating, “Trade war is bad news for the world economy, everyone loses in that situation.”
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08763, holding steady but slightly pressured below the $1.08844 pivot point. The pair is consolidating in a narrow range as traders await key economic cues, with immediate resistance at $1.09314 and support at $1.08297.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08839 is acting as a dynamic barrier, reinforcing a potential bearish outlook if price action fails to reclaim higher levels.
A break below $1.08844 could confirm downside pressure, with sellers eyeing the next support zones at $1.08297 and $1.07966.
A sharper decline could expose $1.07650, a level that aligns with previous demand zones. On the upside, if EUR/USD rebounds and breaks above $1.09314, bullish momentum could extend toward $1.09710 and $1.10065.
Traders should monitor $1.08844 closely. A sustained move below this level would reinforce selling momentum, while a recovery above $1.09314 could shift sentiment toward further gains.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish bias remains below $1.08844, targeting $1.08297 and $1.07966 as next support levels.
- 50-day EMA at $1.08839 is a critical resistance—failure to reclaim it could drive further declines.
- Entry Price: Sell Below $1.08847 | Target: $1.08286 | Stop Loss: $1.09145.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08763, holding steady but slightly pressured below the $1.08844 pivot point. The pair is consolidating in a narrow range as traders await key economic cues, with immediate resistance at $1.09314 and support at $1.08297.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08839 is acting as a dynamic barrier, reinforcing a potential bearish outlook if price action fails to reclaim higher levels.
A break below $1.08844 could confirm downside pressure, with sellers eyeing the next support zones at $1.08297 and $1.07966.
A sharper decline could expose $1.07650, a level that aligns with previous demand zones. On the upside, if EUR/USD rebounds and breaks above $1.09314, bullish momentum could extend toward $1.09710 and $1.10065.
Traders should monitor $1.08844 closely. A sustained move below this level would reinforce selling momentum, while a recovery above $1.09314 could shift sentiment toward further gains.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08847
Take Profit – 1.08286
Stop Loss – 1.09145
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$561/ -$298
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$56/ -$29
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD remains below $1.08740, reinforcing a bearish outlook.
- Immediate support at $1.08094; a breakdown could target $1.07650.
- Dollar strength and ECB policy stance remain key drivers of market direction.
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08339, down 0.03%, as the pair continues to face pressure amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. The euro remains on a downward trajectory, struggling to break past the pivot level at $1.08740.
A failure to reclaim this level suggests that sellers remain in control, with immediate resistance seen at $1.09314, followed by $1.09856 and $1.10365.
On the downside, the $1.08094 support level is a key area to watch. A sustained break below this threshold could accelerate losses toward $1.07650 and $1.07213, reinforcing a broader bearish trend.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08735 is acting as dynamic resistance, further limiting upside potential. A failure to close above this moving average could keep bearish sentiment intact.
For now, a break below $1.08094 could confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside likely.
Conversely, a close above $1.08740 would signal potential stabilization, opening the door for a recovery toward $1.09314.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.08737
Take Profit – 1.07958
Stop Loss – 1.09200
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$779/ -$463
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$77/ -$46
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and climbed to around 1.0912. The Euro (EUR) is gaining strength against the US Dollar (USD) despite ongoing trade tensions between the United States and the European Union.
Investors are closely watching key economic data releases, including Germany’s Harmonized Index of Consumer Price (HICP) for February and the preliminary Michigan Consumer Sentiment for March, which could further influence the pair’s movement.
EUR/USD Rises Despite Trade Tensions and Recession Concerns
On Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced a 200% tariff on European wine, cognac, and other alcohol in response to the EU’s planned tariffs on American whiskey and other goods starting in April.
The EU’s move came after Trump imposed a 25% duty on steel and aluminum imports. Despite these trade tensions, the Euro (EUR) is holding strong, and EUR/USD continues to rise as investors focus on upcoming economic data.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank (ECB) policymaker and Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel warned that higher US tariffs could push Germany, Europe’s largest economy, into another recession.
He said on Thursday that if the tariffs go into effect, Germany might face a recession this year. Despite these concerns, the Euro (EUR) remains resilient, and EUR/USD continues to rise as investors focus on upcoming economic data.
Fed Rate Cut Speculations Cap Dollar Gains
On the other hand, the downside for EUR/USD is limited due to growing concerns about the US economy. Analysts at Barclays have updated their Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut forecast, now expecting two cuts in June and September instead of just one.
The CME FedWatch tool shows a 75% chance of a rate cut by June, signaling market confidence in upcoming easing, which supports the Euro's strength and keeps EUR/USD rising.
Hence, the weaker US economic data has also contributed to speculation that the Fed may move to lower interest rates sooner rather than later. A slowdown in economic growth would put further pressure on the Greenback, potentially limiting further losses in the EUR/USD pair.
Moving forward, investors will closely monitor developments in the US-EU trade dispute, as any further escalation could intensify selling pressure on the Euro.
Moreover, upcoming economic data from both regions, including inflation reports and consumer sentiment figures, will play a crucial role in determining EUR/USD’s next move.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
EUR/USD is trading at $1.08339, down 0.03%, as the pair continues to face pressure amid a strengthening U.S. dollar. The euro remains on a downward trajectory, struggling to break past the pivot level at $1.08740.
A failure to reclaim this level suggests that sellers remain in control, with immediate resistance seen at $1.09314, followed by $1.09856 and $1.10365.
On the downside, the $1.08094 support level is a key area to watch. A sustained break below this threshold could accelerate losses toward $1.07650 and $1.07213, reinforcing a broader bearish trend.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08735 is acting as dynamic resistance, further limiting upside potential. A failure to close above this moving average could keep bearish sentiment intact.
For now, a break below $1.08094 could confirm a bearish continuation, with further downside likely.
Conversely, a close above $1.08740 would signal potential stabilization, opening the door for a recovery toward $1.09314.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, staying well bid around the 1.0926 level.
However, the bullish bias can be attributed to growing concerns surrounding the US economic outlook under President Donald Trump’s leadership, which has put pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
Another factor supporting the EUR/USD pair is optimism about Germany’s defense spending deal. Investors hope debt restructuring will boost defense spending and stimulate Eurozone growth, potentially influencing the ECB’s interest rate stance.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Recession Fears and Trump’s Tariff Agenda
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is underperforming, mainly due to concerns that President Trump’s tariff policies could increase the risk of a US recession.
His "America First" approach is seen as potentially driving up inflation, which could hurt consumer purchasing power already impacted by high inflation.
These worries grew after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick defended Trump’s policies in a CBS interview on Tuesday, acknowledging they could lead to a recession but arguing they are necessary for the country’s future.
Looking forward, traders are waiting for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, set to be published at 12:30 GMT.
This inflation data is important because it will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next actions on interest rates.
Headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.9% year-over-year, down from 3% in January. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecasted to ease to 3.2% from 3.3%.
These numbers could impact speculation about future rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would affect the USD.
Euro Strengthened by German Economic Optimism and Ukrainian Ceasefire
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) has gained traction over the past week, driven by optimism surrounding the German defense spending deal.
Investors are hopeful that a clearance for German debt restructuring could increase defense spending and stimulate economic growth in the Eurozone.
The upcoming meeting between key German political figures is seen as pivotal in determining the course of this potential fiscal policy shift.
If successful, it could lead to a reassessment of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s dovish stance on interest rates.
Moreover, positive developments on the geopolitical front, including Ukraine’s agreement to a 30-day ceasefire, have boosted the Euro’s appeal.
With US officials in Saudi Arabia facilitating peace talks, optimism about stability in the region has given further support to the EUR.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.09041, maintaining a neutral stance as investors await fresh economic catalysts.
The pivot point at $1.08848 serves as a crucial threshold, with the pair needing to hold above this level to sustain bullish momentum.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 provides further support, reinforcing the short-term upward trend.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $1.09488, followed by $1.10045 and $1.10602. A breakout above $1.09488 could push the pair toward the psychological $1.10 level, which, if breached, may lead to further gains. However, failure to clear this resistance zone may keep the pair in consolidation mode.
Support levels are $1.08374, $1.07700, and $1.07151. A move below $1.08374 would signal increased selling pressure, potentially triggering a deeper pullback toward the $1.07700 handle.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 is a key technical floor—if breached, it could accelerate downside momentum.
Given the current setup, a buy position above $1.08848 is favored, targeting $1.09542 for profit, while maintaining a stop-loss at $1.08449 to protect against downside risks.
The short-term outlook hinges on upcoming economic data, particularly U.S. inflation figures and European Central Bank signals, which could drive volatility.
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