EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 12, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, staying well bid around the 1.0926 level.
However, the bullish bias can be attributed to growing concerns surrounding the US economic outlook under President Donald Trump’s leadership, which has put pressure on the US Dollar (USD).
Another factor supporting the EUR/USD pair is optimism about Germany’s defense spending deal. Investors hope debt restructuring will boost defense spending and stimulate Eurozone growth, potentially influencing the ECB’s interest rate stance.
US Dollar Under Pressure Amid Recession Fears and Trump’s Tariff Agenda
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar is underperforming, mainly due to concerns that President Trump’s tariff policies could increase the risk of a US recession.
His "America First" approach is seen as potentially driving up inflation, which could hurt consumer purchasing power already impacted by high inflation.
These worries grew after US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick defended Trump’s policies in a CBS interview on Tuesday, acknowledging they could lead to a recession but arguing they are necessary for the country’s future.
Looking forward, traders are waiting for the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for February, set to be published at 12:30 GMT.
This inflation data is important because it will influence expectations for the Federal Reserve's next actions on interest rates.
Headline inflation is expected to slow to 2.9% year-over-year, down from 3% in January. Meanwhile, the core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, is forecasted to ease to 3.2% from 3.3%.
These numbers could impact speculation about future rate hikes or cuts by the Federal Reserve, which would affect the USD.
Euro Strengthened by German Economic Optimism and Ukrainian Ceasefire
Meanwhile, the Euro (EUR) has gained traction over the past week, driven by optimism surrounding the German defense spending deal.
Investors are hopeful that a clearance for German debt restructuring could increase defense spending and stimulate economic growth in the Eurozone.
The upcoming meeting between key German political figures is seen as pivotal in determining the course of this potential fiscal policy shift.
If successful, it could lead to a reassessment of the European Central Bank (ECB)’s dovish stance on interest rates.
Moreover, positive developments on the geopolitical front, including Ukraine’s agreement to a 30-day ceasefire, have boosted the Euro’s appeal.
With US officials in Saudi Arabia facilitating peace talks, optimism about stability in the region has given further support to the EUR.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.09041, maintaining a neutral stance as investors await fresh economic catalysts.
The pivot point at $1.08848 serves as a crucial threshold, with the pair needing to hold above this level to sustain bullish momentum.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 provides further support, reinforcing the short-term upward trend.
On the upside, immediate resistance sits at $1.09488, followed by $1.10045 and $1.10602. A breakout above $1.09488 could push the pair toward the psychological $1.10 level, which, if breached, may lead to further gains. However, failure to clear this resistance zone may keep the pair in consolidation mode.
Support levels are $1.08374, $1.07700, and $1.07151. A move below $1.08374 would signal increased selling pressure, potentially triggering a deeper pullback toward the $1.07700 handle.
The 50-day EMA at $1.08492 is a key technical floor—if breached, it could accelerate downside momentum.
Given the current setup, a buy position above $1.08848 is favored, targeting $1.09542 for profit, while maintaining a stop-loss at $1.08449 to protect against downside risks.
The short-term outlook hinges on upcoming economic data, particularly U.S. inflation figures and European Central Bank signals, which could drive volatility.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 10, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extend its upward trend and remained bullish around above 1.0875 level.
However, the shared currency has gained momentum amid positive Eurozone data. Meanwhile, the bearish US dollar, pressured by the signs of an economic slowdown, was seen as another key factor that supported the EUR/USD pair.
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index Jumps to -2.9 in March
On the data front, the latest Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index for March surged to -2.9, a sharp improvement from February's reading of -12.7.
This unexpected uptick in investor sentiment signals a recovery in confidence about the economic outlook for the region, particularly in Germany, the Eurozone’s economic powerhouse.
According to Sentix, Germany’s industrial sector saw an impressive boost in January, with industrial output rising by 2% month-on-month (MoM), beating expectations of a 1.5% increase.
Sentix described investor sentiment in Germany as “downright euphoric,” suggesting a growing belief that the country’s economy is on a positive trajectory.
Meanwhile, the Eurozone’s current situation indicator also showed progress, increasing to -21.8 from -25.5 in February. This suggests that investors are becoming increasingly optimistic about the region’s recovery, supported by Germany’s strong economic performance.
Therefore, the improvement in the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence Index, especially driven by Germany's strong economic performance, boosts investor optimism, supporting EUR/USD gains as confidence in the Eurozone rises.
Weak US Data and Trump’s Uncertain Economic Agenda Weigh on USD
On the other hand, the US Dollar faced downward pressure as the market digested disappointing economic data and increasing concerns over President Donald Trump’s economic policies.
Data showing a 15-month low in US Consumer Confidence, a drop in ISM Manufacturing New Orders, and weaker-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) data for February have raised doubts about the strength of the US economy.
These indicators suggest that the US may be headed for a slowdown, adding to worries over the effectiveness of Trump’s "America First" policies.
In a recent interview with Fox News, Trump acknowledged that his administration’s policies would result in short-term economic shocks, reinforcing fears of potential disruption to the US economy. Trump’s unpredictable tariff and tax policies have created uncertainty, leading investors to scale back expectations for US growth in the near term.
As a result, market participants are increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume its policy easing cycle, with the likelihood of a rate cut in the June meeting rising to 82%, up from 54% a month ago.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious stance, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding Trump’s economic agenda and its effects on the broader economy.
Euro Faces Pressure from ECB’s Caution on Interest Rates
Despite the positive data from the Eurozone, the Euro is facing some challenges in the short term. After strong gains last week, traders are taking profits, which is putting some pressure on the currency.
Additionally, there are concerns about the European Central Bank's (ECB) future actions. Last week, the ECB cut its Deposit Facility rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, but they did not commit to further rate cuts or a broader expansion of monetary policy.
ECB officials, including Mario Centeno, have indicated that the Eurozone is moving towards "normalizing" its monetary policy, with inflation decreasing and getting closer to the ECB’s target. These factors are causing some caution around the Euro’s near-term performance.
On the other hand, Germany’s move to extend its borrowing limit and establish a EUR500 billion infrastructure fund for defense spending has forced traders to revise expectations for ECB rate cuts. As a result, the Euro’s bullish momentum has been capped, although sentiment remains generally positive.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair remains in a tight consolidation phase, hovering around $1.08338 after a recent pullback from its highs. The pair is struggling to gain significant bullish traction but remains supported above the 50-day EMA at $1.07483, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
On the upside, the first key resistance is at $1.08855, which aligns with recent highs. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger further gains toward $1.09312, followed by $1.09686, where sellers may emerge. However, failure to clear these levels could lead to renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.07658, aligning with last week's lows. If this level gives way, EUR/USD could retest the next key supports at $1.07164 and $1.06579. A break below these zones would expose the pair to further downside risk, potentially targeting the 200-day EMA near $1.0562.
Fundamentally, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.
A stronger-than-expected CPI report may bolster the U.S. dollar, pressuring EUR/USD lower, while weaker data could fuel expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut, supporting further upside in the pair.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD holding above 50-day EMA ($1.07483), maintaining an overall bullish bias.
- Breakout above $1.08855 could open the door for $1.09312 and $1.09686.
- A drop below $1.07658 could trigger declines toward $1.07164 and $1.06579.
The EUR/USD pair remains in a tight consolidation phase, hovering around $1.08338 after a recent pullback from its highs. The pair is struggling to gain significant bullish traction but remains supported above the 50-day EMA at $1.07483, reinforcing the broader uptrend.
On the upside, the first key resistance is at $1.08855, which aligns with recent highs. A decisive breakout above this level could trigger further gains toward $1.09312, followed by $1.09686, where sellers may emerge. However, failure to clear these levels could lead to renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support lies at $1.07658, aligning with last week's lows. If this level gives way, EUR/USD could retest the next key supports at $1.07164 and $1.06579. A break below these zones would expose the pair to further downside risk, potentially targeting the 200-day EMA near $1.0562.
Fundamentally, traders remain cautious ahead of key U.S. inflation data, which could influence Federal Reserve rate expectations.
A stronger-than-expected CPI report may bolster the U.S. dollar, pressuring EUR/USD lower, while weaker data could fuel expectations of an earlier Fed rate cut, supporting further upside in the pair.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08266
Take Profit – 1.08960
Stop Loss – 1.07867
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$694/ -$399
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$69/ -$39
EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD holds above $1.07640, maintaining a cautiously bullish outlook ahead of key U.S. jobs data.
- A breakout above $1.08521 could drive the pair toward $1.09022 and $1.09497, reinforcing upside potential.
- Failure to sustain above $1.07640 may expose EUR/USD to a decline toward $1.07100 and $1.06579.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08178, holding steady as markets digest economic data and central bank signals. The pair remains above its pivot point at $1.07640, indicating near-term bullish sentiment, though gains are limited by key resistance at $1.08521.
A sustained breakout above this level could push the pair toward $1.09022, with the next target at $1.09497.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.07100, with deeper levels at $1.06579 and $1.06049. A move below the pivot point may weaken sentiment, triggering a shift toward a bearish outlook.
The 50-day EMA at $1.06489 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing buyers' control. The euro’s performance remains tied to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook.
A dovish Fed stance could weaken the dollar, providing support to EUR/USD, while stronger U.S. labor market data may strengthen the greenback, capping further gains in the euro.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
If job growth exceeds expectations, it may fuel speculation of delayed rate cuts, potentially driving EUR/USD lower. Conversely, a weaker labor market print could reinforce Fed easing bets, pushing the pair higher.
A decisive break above $1.08521 would confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below $1.07640 could trigger further downside pressure.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.08049
Take Profit – 1.08900
Stop Loss – 1.07379
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$851/ -$670
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$85/ -$67
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During Friday’s European session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its bullish momentum, surging above the 1.0850 level and hitting the intra-day high of 1.0871level.
However, the shared currency gained traction as traders reassessed their expectations for the European Central Bank (ECB) after Germany confirmed a €500 billion infrastructure fund and proposed changes to the "debt brake."
These reforms could lead to higher inflation, which may slow down the ECB’s plans to cut interest rates. However, ECB President Christine Lagarde avoided commenting on these changes during her press conference, saying that increased spending on defense and infrastructure is still under review.
With inflation concerns rising, market expectations for ECB rate cuts have shifted. Traders now speculate that the ECB may pause its rate-cutting cycle in April after five consecutive reductions. Before the ECB’s latest meeting, investors had expected two more rate cuts by summer.
Lagarde maintained a cautious stance, saying future rate decisions would be based on economic data and decided on a "meeting-by-meeting" basis. This uncertainty, combined with a weaker US Dollar, has helped EUR/USD maintain its bullish momentum.
US Dollar Weakness and Market Sentiment
Another factor that has been supporting the EUR/USD pair is the US Dollar’s weakness ahead of the US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.
The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the USD against major currencies, has been falling for five straight days, reaching a four-month low of 103.60.
Meanwhile, the US economic outlook and Trump’s tariff policies have added pressure on the US Dollar. Investors worry that higher tariffs could hurt US importers and reduce consumer spending, weakening the economy.
On Thursday, Trump temporarily eased some tariffs under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) but confirmed that new tariffs will take effect on April 2.
Moving ahead, the upcoming US NFP report is expected to show an increase of 160K jobs in February, higher than the 143K recorded in January.
In the meantime, the Unemployment Rate is projected to remain steady at 4%, while Average Hourly Earnings are anticipated to rise by 4.1% year-on-year.
However, the month-on-month wage growth rate is expected to slow to 0.3%, down from 0.5% in January.
On the other hand, the next major event for the Euro is the German parliamentary vote on debt brake reforms, scheduled for March 18.
This could affect inflation and influence the ECB’s decisions. On the other hand, US job data will give more clues about the Fed’s next moves, which will impact EUR/USD trends. (edited)
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.08178, holding steady as markets digest economic data and central bank signals. The pair remains above its pivot point at $1.07640, indicating near-term bullish sentiment, though gains are limited by key resistance at $1.08521.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at $1.07100, with deeper levels at $1.06579 and $1.06049. A move below the pivot point may weaken sentiment, triggering a shift toward a bearish outlook.
The 50-day EMA at $1.06489 is acting as dynamic support, reinforcing buyers' control. The euro’s performance remains tied to expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve and European Central Bank (ECB) policy outlook.
A dovish Fed stance could weaken the dollar, providing support to EUR/USD, while stronger U.S. labor market data may strengthen the greenback, capping further gains in the euro.
Looking ahead, traders will focus on Friday’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could set the tone for the Federal Reserve’s next move.
If job growth exceeds expectations, it may fuel speculation of delayed rate cuts, potentially driving EUR/USD lower. Conversely, a weaker labor market print could reinforce Fed easing bets, pushing the pair higher.
A decisive break above $1.08521 would confirm bullish momentum, while a drop below $1.07640 could trigger further downside pressure.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD remains bearish below $1.06351, with key support at $1.05614.
- A break above $1.06990 may shift momentum, targeting $1.07453 resistance.
- 50-day EMA at $1.04784 reinforces the broader downside trend.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.06248, struggling to hold above key support levels as the U.S. dollar retains strength. The pivot point at $1.06351 is a crucial threshold, with the pair teetering just below it. The 50-day EMA at $1.04784 signals a bearish bias, suggesting further downside potential if sellers remain in control.
A break below $1.06344 could accelerate selling pressure, with immediate support at $1.05614 acting as the next key level. If the bearish momentum continues, EUR/USD could decline further toward $1.04962, with an extended downside target at $1.04448, marking a multi-week low.
On the upside, resistance remains firm at $1.06990, with a break above this level required for any meaningful recovery. If the pair manages to push higher, the next upside hurdles are $1.07453 and $1.08038, where sellers may re-emerge. However, given the current bearish sentiment, a sustained move above $1.06837 is required to shift momentum.
The technical landscape remains bearish, as long as EUR/USD trades below the pivot point at $1.06351. A confirmed break below $1.05614 could trigger further declines, while a push above $1.06990 would be needed to negate the bearish outlook.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.06344
Take Profit – 1.05608
Stop Loss – 1.06837
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$736/ -$493
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$73/ -$49
EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair extended its upward momentum on Wednesday, reaching near 1.0720, the highest level seen this year.
However, the shared currency strengthened as investors moved away from the US Dollar (USD) amid growing concerns over the United States (US) economic outlook.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s value against a basket of six major currencies, slipped to a three-month low of 105.15.
EUR/USD Strengthens Amid Weak US Dollar and Rate Cut Expectations
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar came under pressure as market participants reassessed their expectations regarding US economic growth.
Investors are increasingly worried that former President Donald Trump’s proposed tariff policies could slow down economic expansion rather than fuel inflation and growth, as previously expected.
Adding to the bearish sentiment, Citi analysts forecasted a 0.1% decline in Q1 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and projected that the Federal Reserve (Fed) might resume its rate-cut cycle in May, after pausing in December. This, in turn, has pressured the US dollar, making the Euro more attractive.
German Debt Reforms and ECB Policy Outlook Support Euro
On the flip side, the Euro found support from expectations of fiscal expansion in Germany. Frederich Merz, the likely next German chancellor, along with the Social Democratic Party (SPD), has agreed on a 500 billion Euro infrastructure fund and a relaxation of borrowing limits.
These changes could boost economic growth in the Eurozone and push inflation higher, helping the Euro stay strong.
However, the upcoming European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy meeting remains a key event for EUR/USD traders. Notably, the ECB is widely expected to cut its Deposit Facility Rate by 25 basis points (bps) for the fifth consecutive time.
Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde is expected to clarify the bank’s monetary policy path. Investors will closely watch her remarks on the impact of Trump’s tariffs and Germany’s fiscal policies on the Eurozone economy.
Trade Tensions and US Economic Data to Impact EUR/USD
On the geopolitical front, the US has already imposed 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico and 10% on Chinese goods, with additional reciprocal tariffs set to take effect from April 2.
This poses a risk to the Euro, as Germany, a key economy in the Eurozone, is a major car exporter to the US. Trump’s plan to raise tariffs on foreign automobiles from 2.5% to 25% could hurt German automakers, impacting exports and economic growth. If trade tensions escalate, market uncertainty may weigh on the Euro, affecting the EUR/USD pair.
Looking ahead, investors will focus on key US economic data, including the ADP Employment Change and ISM Services data for February, set to be released in the North American session.
These figures could shape market expectations for the Fed’s monetary policy, ultimately influencing EUR/USD’s next move.
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.06248, struggling to hold above key support levels as the U.S. dollar retains strength. The pivot point at $1.06351 is a crucial threshold, with the pair teetering just below it. The 50-day EMA at $1.04784 signals a bearish bias, suggesting further downside potential if sellers remain in control.
A break below $1.06344 could accelerate selling pressure, with immediate support at $1.05614 acting as the next key level. If the bearish momentum continues, EUR/USD could decline further toward $1.04962, with an extended downside target at $1.04448, marking a multi-week low.
On the upside, resistance remains firm at $1.06990, with a break above this level required for any meaningful recovery. If the pair manages to push higher, the next upside hurdles are $1.07453 and $1.08038, where sellers may re-emerge. However, given the current bearish sentiment, a sustained move above $1.06837 is required to shift momentum.
The technical landscape remains bearish, as long as EUR/USD trades below the pivot point at $1.06351. A confirmed break below $1.05614 could trigger further declines, while a push above $1.06990 would be needed to negate the bearish outlook.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis – March 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the EUR/USD currency pair broke its three-day losing streak and edged higher around 1.0440 level.
However, the recovery in the Euro was driven by a weaker US dollar following the release of January’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data, which met expectations and alleviated concerns about unexpected inflation spikes in the United States. On the other hand, the Euro gained strength, supported by stronger-than-expected Eurozone inflation data.
Eurozone Inflation Data Supports EUR, But ECB's Easing Policy Limits Strength
On the data front, the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) rose 2.4% year-on-year (YoY) in February, a small decrease from January’s 2.5%. This was still a bit higher than the 2.3% that markets had expected. The core HICP, which excludes food and energy prices, increased by 2.6% YoY, matching market expectations but slightly down from 2.7% in January.
On a monthly basis, the HICP climbed by 0.5% in February, a bounce back from the 0.3% drop seen in January. Similarly, core HICP inflation grew 0.6% month-over-month, reversing January’s 0.9% decline. This increase in monthly inflation suggests that price pressures in the Eurozone are still present, even if overall inflation is cooling slightly.
However, the European Central Bank (ECB) has a target inflation rate of 2.0%, and this inflation data could impact future decisions on interest rates. Although the inflation numbers were higher than expected, the ECB is still likely to continue its policy of easing in its upcoming meeting.
US Dollar Weakens Despite Rising Yields and Trade Tensions, Boosting EUR/USD Outlook
On the US front, the broad-based US dollar has weakened after three consecutive days of gains, trading around 107.30 on the US Dollar Index (DXY).
However, the downside for the Greenback could be limited as US Treasury yields are improving, with the 2-year yield at 4.02% and the 10-year yield at 4.24%. These rising yields suggest that the USD could still find support in the near term.
On the data front, the release of the January Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation report provided a boost to the EUR/USD pair.
The data came in line with expectations, easing concerns over unexpected inflation spikes in the US. The headline PCE remained steady at 0.3% month-over-month, while the core PCE rose slightly to 0.3%, up from 0.2% in December.
On an annual basis, the headline PCE was 2.6%, just above forecasts, but unchanged from December's reading. Overall, the report helped ease inflation worries, which in turn supported the EUR/USD recovery.
Looking forward, the rising US-China trade tensions could offer support to the USD, as investors often turn to the Greenback during times of uncertainty.
US President Trump announced new tariffs on Chinese imports, starting this Tuesday, and also mentioned 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico set to take effect on March 4. This could cap EUR/USD gains as the USD strengthens due to safe-haven flows amid escalating trade tensions. (edited)
EUR/USD – Technical Analysis
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04126, showing minor losses as the dollar holds firm amid economic uncertainty. The pair remains below the pivot point at $1.03963, signaling a neutral to slightly bullish bias in the short term.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.04518, followed by $1.04837 and $1.05279. A break above $1.04518 could strengthen bullish momentum, with traders eyeing the 50-day EMA at $1.04552 as a key level for further gains. However, failure to clear this resistance may trigger renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is at $1.03451, with stronger levels at $1.03163 and $1.02824. If the pair falls below $1.03451, sellers could push the price lower, testing the $1.03163 level, which aligns with previous market structure.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at $1.04552 remains a critical barrier for the bulls. A buy entry above $1.03958 could target $1.04523, with a stop-loss at $1.03575 to manage downside risks. A breakout above $1.04518 would strengthen the case for further gains, while a move below $1.03451 could accelerate selling pressure.
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EUR/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- EUR/USD remains bullish above $1.03963, with key resistance at $1.04518.
- 50-day EMA at $1.04552 is a key hurdle for further upside momentum.
- Buy entry above $1.03958, target $1.04523, stop-loss at $1.03575.
The EUR/USD pair is trading at $1.04126, showing minor losses as the dollar holds firm amid economic uncertainty. The pair remains below the pivot point at $1.03963, signaling a neutral to slightly bullish bias in the short term.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.04518, followed by $1.04837 and $1.05279. A break above $1.04518 could strengthen bullish momentum, with traders eyeing the 50-day EMA at $1.04552 as a key level for further gains. However, failure to clear this resistance may trigger renewed selling pressure.
On the downside, immediate support is at $1.03451, with stronger levels at $1.03163 and $1.02824. If the pair falls below $1.03451, sellers could push the price lower, testing the $1.03163 level, which aligns with previous market structure.
Technically, the 50-day EMA at $1.04552 remains a critical barrier for the bulls. A buy entry above $1.03958 could target $1.04523, with a stop-loss at $1.03575 to manage downside risks. A breakout above $1.04518 would strengthen the case for further gains, while a move below $1.03451 could accelerate selling pressure.
EUR/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.03958
Take Profit – 1.04523
Stop Loss – 1.03575
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$565/ -$383
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$56/ -$38
GBP/USD Price Analysis – March 03, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair started the week on a positive note, trading above the 1.2630 level.
However, the Pound gained momentum mainly due to optimism surrounding a potential peace truce between Russia and Ukraine, which helped reduce the risk premium on the US Dollar.
In addition to the geopolitical news, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will adopt a moderate approach to policy easing have further strengthened the Pound.
The possibility of a healthy trade deal between the US and the UK also played a role in boosting confidence in the British economy. As a result, the GBP rose against most of its major peers, except the Euro, as investors remain hopeful about these positive developments.
GBP Strengthens Amid Peace Truce Hopes and BoE's Cautious Monetary Policy
On the GBP front, the Pound gained traction mainly due to hopes for a potential peace truce between Russia and Ukraine, which has lowered the risk attached to the US Dollar.
Moreover, expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will take a moderate approach to easing its policies and a likely trade deal between the US and UK have kept the British currency in a favorable position.
On Friday, BoE Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden emphasized the need for a "careful and gradual" approach to expanding monetary policy, citing uncertainties in the labor market and global trade.
Ramsden also pointed out that inflation pressures remain high due to strong wage growth, and he no longer sees the risks of hitting the 2% inflation target as being to the downside.
Despite this, traders are already pricing in two interest rate cuts this year, which has influenced market sentiment.
Hence, the positive outlook for the Pound, fueled by optimism around the peace truce and BoE's cautious stance, has supported the GBP/USD pair, pushing it higher against the US Dollar.
GBP/USD Rebounds Amid Peace Truce Hopes, but US Dollar Faces Tariff Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar lost its traction and dropped in the wake of optimism surrounding a potential peace plan between Russia and Ukraine.
As a result, the GBP/USD pair rebounded to near 1.2639 on Monday. Notably, the hopes of a peace truce contributed to easing geopolitical tensions, reducing the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar.
It should be noted that UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer announced over the weekend that European leaders, along with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, have agreed to present a peace plan to the United States.
This meeting has raised hopes for a resolution to the war. As a result of these positive developments, the demand for the US Dollar as a safe-haven asset has decreased, leading to a decline in its value.
Moving ahead, investors should remain cautious about betting too much against the US Dollar because of ongoing tariff threats. US President Donald Trump plans to impose tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China for not doing enough to stop fentanyl from entering the US.
Although there’s some room for negotiation on the tariffs, this could create market uncertainty and may support the US Dollar in the short term.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is trading at $1.26002, down 0.01%, as the British pound struggles to hold ground against a resilient U.S. dollar. With the pair positioned just below the pivot point of $1.26228, the short-term outlook leans slightly bearish.
Immediate resistance is seen at $1.26896, followed by $1.27505 and $1.28060. A break above $1.26228 would shift sentiment bullish, with the 50-day EMA at $1.26304 acting as a key hurdle for buyers. However, sustained weakness below this level may reinforce further downside.
On the support side, $1.25586 serves as the first line of defense, with $1.25087 and $1.24528 providing deeper support zones. If the pair breaks below $1.25586, the decline could accelerate, potentially reaching the $1.25087 level, which aligns with previous consolidation areas.
From a technical perspective, the 50-day EMA at $1.26304 is acting as dynamic resistance. A sell entry below $1.26217 is favored, with a take-profit target at $1.25363 and a stop-loss at $1.26894 to cap risk.
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