GBP/USD Price Analysis – May 05, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair has remained strong as it extended its upward momentum, trading around 1.3285.
However, the pair’s rally has been driven by a mixture of internal UK factors and broader global uncertainties, particularly the outlook for the Bank of England (BoE) and Federal Reserve’s (Fed) upcoming decisions, along with persistent trade tensions between the US and China.
GBP/USD Supported by BoE Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Factors
However, the major driver behind the pound’s strength is the growing anticipation of a rate cut by the BoE. Analysts at Bank of America (BofA) have forecasted a 25-basis-point reduction in the UK’s borrowing rates, bringing them to 4.25%.
This rate cut is expected to be backed by a majority vote of 8-1, with one MPC member, Swati Dhingra, likely pushing for a more aggressive cut of 50 basis points.
The decision comes as the UK faces potential economic risks, exacerbated by ongoing trade uncertainties and improving domestic inflation conditions.
Moreover, BofA expects the BoE to cut rates further in the coming months, reflecting a cautious stance on the UK’s economic recovery amid trade disruptions.
This dovish outlook from the BoE continues to provide support for the GBP, as investors price in a more accommodative monetary policy in the near term.
USD Faces Pressure Ahead of Fed's Decision Amid Trade and Inflation Concerns
On the US side, the US dollar is under pressure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement. Markets are almost fully pricing in a steady interest rate, keeping rates between 4.25% and 4.50%.
Moving on, the focus now shifts to the Fed's future policy guidance, especially considering the strong April Nonfarm Payrolls data, which showed better-than-expected job growth despite ongoing tariff policies.
US President Trump’s recent comments on lowering tariffs have added complexity to the Fed’s decision-making process.
While Trump has consistently urged the Fed to cut rates, arguing that the US economy shows signs of improvement, particularly with lower energy costs and strong employment figures, the Fed has maintained that interest rate cuts will only be considered if there are clear signs of economic weakness.
Moreover, concerns over rising inflationary pressures, fueled by elevated consumer price expectations and business owners hiking prices due to higher import duties, may limit the Fed’s flexibility in pursuing rate cuts.
This uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy has contributed to the USD's struggle, benefiting the GBP/USD pair.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is navigating a tight descending channel, currently trading below the 50-SMA at $1.33314. Price attempted a recovery above $1.33082 but failed to sustain momentum, producing a rejection candle that hints at renewed bearish pressure.
The structure continues to reflect a lower-high and lower-low sequence—a classic downtrend in motion.
Candlestick analysis reveals an indecisive zone near the $1.33082 mark, with a spinning top followed by a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling hesitation and exhaustion from bulls.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 45.54, below its average of 44.12, offering little indication of oversold relief or bullish divergence.
A break below $1.33082 reaffirms downside momentum, exposing immediate support at $1.32589 and secondary support at $1.32336.
On the flip side, if bulls breach $1.33364 with strong follow-through, the pair could challenge $1.33801.
However, the bearish channel and 50-SMA crossover overhead suggest that upside attempts are likely to face resistance.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- GBP/USD remains confined within a descending channel.
- Price action shows rejection near the 50-SMA and key trendline.
- A break below $1.33082 sets the stage for a drop to $1.32589.
GBP/USD is navigating a tight descending channel, currently trading below the 50-SMA at $1.33314. Price attempted a recovery above $1.33082 but failed to sustain momentum, producing a rejection candle that hints at renewed bearish pressure.
The structure continues to reflect a lower-high and lower-low sequence—a classic downtrend in motion.
Candlestick analysis reveals an indecisive zone near the $1.33082 mark, with a spinning top followed by a bearish engulfing pattern, signaling hesitation and exhaustion from bulls.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 45.54, below its average of 44.12, offering little indication of oversold relief or bullish divergence.
A break below $1.33082 reaffirms downside momentum, exposing immediate support at $1.32589 and secondary support at $1.32336.
On the flip side, if bulls breach $1.33364 with strong follow-through, the pair could challenge $1.33801.
However, the bearish channel and 50-SMA crossover overhead suggest that upside attempts are likely to face resistance.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.33082
Take Profit – 1.32589
Stop Loss – 1.33364
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$493/ -$282
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$49/ -$28
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 30, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its losing streak and stayed around the 1.3352 level.
The reason for this downward movement can be linked to a slight rise in the US Dollar, as traders prepared for key US economic data releases.
Moving ahead, tmarket is awaiting reports on GDP, employment, and inflation, which could offer more insight into the strength of the US economy and influence future currency movements.
The pair had recently reached a three-year high of 1.3445 but is now facing a correction due to the Dollar's strength ahead of these important reports.
US Economic Data Pressures Dollar and Raises Market Expectations for Fed Rate Cuts
On the data front, the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is anticipated to report slower GDP growth of just 0.4% for Q1, a significant slowdown from the previous 2.4%. The sluggish growth reflects the strain from President Trump’s tariffs on US trading partners, which have heightened global economic uncertainty.
Investors are also watching the Q1 Employment Cost Index, ADP Employment Change data for April, and the March PCE Price Index. These reports are expected to show signs of cooling job growth and inflationary pressures.
The ADP report forecasts just 108K new hires in April, below the previous month’s 155K, while core PCE inflation is expected to slow to 2.6%, from February’s 2.8%.
These signs of weakening economic conditions have led markets to speculate on a 65% probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in June. Therefore, the dovish stance from the Fed would put additional pressure on the US Dollar and benefit GBP/USD in the short term.
BoE Rate Cut Expectations Grow Amid Trade War Fears
Meanwhile, the British Pound has struggled against its peers, except for the Japanese Yen, due to growing concerns that the Bank of England (BoE) could follow the Fed's lead and lower interest rates.
The BoE’s dovish outlook is largely driven by fears over the impact of Trump’s trade war on the UK economy. The imposition of new US tariffs could dampen inflationary pressures and slow UK economic growth, adding to the challenges faced by the BoE.
BoE policymaker Megan Greene noted that the trade war could be “net disinflationary” for the UK, with potential shocks in the job market due to higher social security contributions.
Moreover, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has stressed the risks to economic growth from the ongoing trade conflict, which has led traders to price in a 25 basis point rate cut at the BoE’s May meeting.
Escalating Trade War Fears Put Pressure on GBP
On the other side, the global trade war, particularly the US-China tariff dispute, continues to weigh on market sentiment. The US is pressuring China to ease tensions, while Beijing has vowed to fight back, further escalating the uncertainty.
The Pound has been caught in the crossfire, with rising trade tensions undermining its outlook. Therefore, the uncertainty surrounding the US-China trade war has exacerbated market fears, which in turn, have affected the Pound’s performance against the US Dollar.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is climbing within a well-defined ascending channel, currently supported by the lower trendline near $1.3380. Price is hovering just above the 50 SMA ($1.3392), which has recently acted as dynamic support.
A successful bounce here could fuel further upside toward the mid-channel level around $1.3438, aligned with recent price structure.
The candlestick formation shows a clear series of higher lows, reflecting sustained buying interest. After a brief consolidation, bullish momentum may resume if price holds above $1.3380.
The RSI is at 49.71, marginally below neutral but attempting to cross its signal line, suggesting a potential recovery in momentum.
No classic reversal patterns like engulfing or three white soldiers are present, but the structure supports gradual upside.
A break below $1.3358 would invalidate the setup and expose downside risk toward $1.3348 and $1.3315. Until then, bulls remain in control within the channel framework.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Price trades within rising channel and holds above 50 SMA.
- RSI shows early bullish signs; higher lows remain intact.
- Break above $1.3411 may accelerate momentum toward $1.34385.
GBP/USD is climbing within a well-defined ascending channel, currently supported by the lower trendline near $1.3380. Price is hovering just above the 50 SMA ($1.3392), which has recently acted as dynamic support.
A successful bounce here could fuel further upside toward the mid-channel level around $1.3438, aligned with recent price structure.
The candlestick formation shows a clear series of higher lows, reflecting sustained buying interest. After a brief consolidation, bullish momentum may resume if price holds above $1.3380.
The RSI is at 49.71, marginally below neutral but attempting to cross its signal line, suggesting a potential recovery in momentum.
No classic reversal patterns like engulfing or three white soldiers are present, but the structure supports gradual upside.
A break below $1.3358 would invalidate the setup and expose downside risk toward $1.3348 and $1.3315. Until then, bulls remain in control within the channel framework.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.33808
Take Profit – 1.34385
Stop Loss – 1.33585
Risk to Reward – 1: 2
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$577/ -$223
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$57/ -$22
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- GBP/USD breaks out from triangle pattern above $1.3306, targeting $1.3348.
- RSI above 50 signals emerging bullish strength; 50 EMA flattens upward.
- Candlestick confirmation with bullish engulfing pattern supports bullish continuation.
The GBP/USD pair is displaying early signs of bullish momentum after breaking above a key symmetrical triangle pattern.
The entry trigger near $1.3306 aligns with the breakout of a consolidation structure, suggesting a measured move toward the $1.3348 resistance zone. A bullish breakout from the triangle is often indicative of renewed trend continuation.
Technically, the 50-period EMA, currently at $1.3307, is flattening and attempting to turn higher, providing dynamic support beneath current prices.
The RSI reading at 54.10, edging above the 50 midline, confirms a strengthening bias without approaching overbought levels, leaving room for further upside.
Candle structures around the breakout reveal a mild bullish engulfing pattern followed by a spinning top, reflecting healthy consolidation post-breakout without signs of exhaustion.
No bearish divergence is detected on the RSI, reinforcing the likelihood of continued gains if immediate resistance is breached.
A move above $1.3348 could trigger additional buying, possibly exposing $1.3385 next. Conversely, failure to sustain above the breakout could see a pullback toward $1.3277, which remains key short-term support.
Pattern traders will note the “ABCD harmonic pattern” formation within the broader triangle structure, reinforcing the measured move thesis toward higher resistance levels.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.33060
Take Profit – 1.33478
Stop Loss – 1.32774
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$418/ -$286
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$41/ -$28
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 28, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European session on Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair extended its upward momentum, reaching near 1.3350.
The rally continued as the US Dollar (USD) traded cautiously amidst ongoing uncertainty surrounding US-China trade talks and the anticipation of crucial US economic data later in the week.
Market participants adopted a wait-and-see approach, awaiting clearer signals from the US-China discussions, with no definitive signs of active talks between the two leaders.
US Dollar’s Caution amid Trade Deal Uncertainty
On the US front, the broad-based US Dollar remained subdued as investors awaited more clarity on the status of US-China trade talks. On Monday, China denied reports that President Xi Jinping had spoken directly with US President Donald Trump about trade terms.
This denial came after Trump suggested that Xi had reached out to him, but he didn't provide any clear details about their conversation. As a result, investors are hesitant to make big moves, waiting for more updates on whether a trade deal is possible.
In addition to the trade-related uncertainty, the US Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the Greenback’s performance against six major currencies, hovered around the 99.50 level. This cautious tone in the USD kept the Pound supported, as traders refrained from making bold moves until clearer economic signals emerged.
Focus on US Economic Data and Fed Policy Outlook
Investors are also awaiting a slew of economic data from the US this week, with attention focused on employment, Gross Domestic Product (GDP), and inflation reports. These releases are crucial for shaping market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) future monetary policy.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, market participants widely anticipate that the Fed will hold interest rates steady in its upcoming meeting on May 6-7, with the current rate range of 4.25%-4.50% expected to remain unchanged.
However, Fed officials have suggested that any future policy changes will depend on clearer signals about the state of the economy.
Pound Outperforms Despite Dovish UK Economic Outlook and Rate Cut Expectations
Despite a generally dovish outlook for the UK economy, the Pound outperformed its peers early in the week.
Market participants continue to price in expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.25% in its policy meeting on May 8.
These dovish bets were driven by concerns over the potential negative impact of US tariffs on the UK economy and subsiding inflation pressures in the UK.
Moreover, BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has acknowledged that global trade tensions, especially the US-China trade dispute, could hurt UK growth, but he has ruled out the chance of a recession soon.
BoE policymaker Megan Greene also raised concerns about weak productivity and risks to the UK labor market, as employers face higher social security costs.
These factors, along with expectations of a potential rate cut, have helped keep the Pound strong against the Dollar.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The GBP/USD pair is displaying early signs of bullish momentum after breaking above a key symmetrical triangle pattern.
The entry trigger near $1.3306 aligns with the breakout of a consolidation structure, suggesting a measured move toward the $1.3348 resistance zone. A bullish breakout from the triangle is often indicative of renewed trend continuation.
Technically, the 50-period EMA, currently at $1.3307, is flattening and attempting to turn higher, providing dynamic support beneath current prices.
The RSI reading at 54.10, edging above the 50 midline, confirms a strengthening bias without approaching overbought levels, leaving room for further upside.
Candle structures around the breakout reveal a mild bullish engulfing pattern followed by a spinning top, reflecting healthy consolidation post-breakout without signs of exhaustion.
No bearish divergence is detected on the RSI, reinforcing the likelihood of continued gains if immediate resistance is breached.
A move above $1.3348 could trigger additional buying, possibly exposing $1.3385 next. Conversely, failure to sustain above the breakout could see a pullback toward $1.3277, which remains key short-term support.
Pattern traders will note the “ABCD harmonic pattern” formation within the broader triangle structure, reinforcing the measured move thesis toward higher resistance levels.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 23, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the mid-European session on Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair faced renewed downside pressure, slipping below the 1.3300 mark following disappointing UK PMI figures.
However, the British Pound struggled to find support after weak data fueled fears of an economic slowdown and raised the likelihood of a Bank of England (BoE) rate cut at the May meeting.
Meanwhile, the US Dollar remained volatile as markets reacted to mixed signals surrounding trade policy and Federal Reserve expectations.
GBP/USD Falls After UK PMI Miss and Services Sector Weakness
On the data front, the latest UK S&P Global/CIPS PMI data triggered sharp selling in the Pound Sterling, as both the services and manufacturing sectors contracted unexpectedly.
The Composite PMI dropped to 48.2 in April, down from 51.5 in March and well below forecasts of 50.4. This marked the first contraction in overall business activity since October 2023.
The decline was largely driven by a steep fall in the Services PMI, which fell to 48.9 versus expectations of 51.3. Hence, the weak domestic demand and global economic uncertainty weighed heavily on output.
Meanwhile, the Manufacturing PMI also dropped further into contraction, registering 44.0 – in line with expectations but down from 44.9 previously.
BoE Rate Cut Bets Rise Amid Slowing Inflation and Wage Growth
As a result, the weak PMI data added to growing speculation that the BoE may begin easing monetary policy as soon as its May meeting. Market participants are increasingly pricing in a rate cut due to the recent slowdown in inflation and wage growth.
UK pay awards have risen by only 3% for the fourth consecutive quarter, marking the slowest pace since December 2021. Investors are now closely watching UK Retail Sales data for March, set to be released Friday. Therefore, the decline of 0.4% is anticipated, which could further reinforce the case for a rate cut.
US Dollar Volatile Amid Trade Talk Optimism and Fed Uncertainty
Across the Atlantic, the US dollar failed to sustain its bullish rally and lost some of its early gains despite easing tensions in the US-China trade relationship and reassurances from President Donald Trump regarding Federal Reserve leadership.
The US Dollar Index fell back toward 99.00 after touching recent highs, with investors digesting Trump's comments on ongoing trade discussions and his softened stance on Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Therefore, the US Dollar's pullback, fueled by easing US-China tensions and Trump's comments on the Fed, provided some relief for the GBP/USD pair, helping it recover from early losses and stabilize.
Looking ahead, market participants are eyeing the flash US S&P Global PMI data for April during the North American session, which could influence Fed rate expectations and impact the USD outlook (edited)
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD has found support around the 1.3291 level following a sharp pullback from its recent highs near 1.3415.
The pair is now attempting to regain footing above the 50-period SMA (1.3318), which could serve as a pivot for bullish continuation. Price action suggests potential for a rebound if buyers maintain control above the 1.3291 trigger level.
A bullish engulfing candle has formed near the rising trendline and 50-SMA support zone, reinforcing a potential reversal. This pattern gains significance with RSI recovering from 45.12 — signaling early bullish momentum without entering overbought territory.
If the pair holds above 1.3291, the upside target sits at 1.3395. A break below 1.3228 would invalidate the setup and expose GBP/USD to deeper correction levels.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bullish Rebound Setup: Price rebounding near 50-SMA and ascending trendline support.
- Engulfing Candle Confirmed: Bullish price action suggests buyers may attempt a short-term reversal.
- RSI Turning Higher: At 45.12, momentum is shifting back toward bulls without being stretched.
GBP/USD has found support around the 1.3291 level following a sharp pullback from its recent highs near 1.3415. The pair is now attempting to regain footing above the 50-period SMA (1.3318), which could serve as a pivot for bullish continuation. Price action suggests potential for a rebound if buyers maintain control above the 1.3291 trigger level.
A bullish engulfing candle has formed near the rising trendline and 50-SMA support zone, reinforcing a potential reversal. This pattern gains significance with RSI recovering from 45.12 — signaling early bullish momentum without entering overbought territory.
If the pair holds above 1.3291, the upside target sits at 1.3395. A break below 1.3228 would invalidate the setup and expose GBP/USD to deeper correction levels.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.32918
Take Profit – 1.33954
Stop Loss – 1.32284
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1036/ -$634
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$103/ -$63
GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Channel Trend Holds: Price remains within ascending channel, targeting higher resistance at 1.3412.
- Overbought RSI: At 81.64, suggests possible near-term retracement.
- SMA Supports Trend: 50-SMA at 1.3262 provides a reliable support base for buyers.
GBP/USD continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel and recently surged above the 1.3350 resistance area. The pair is now consolidating near 1.3412 — a key horizontal level — after rejecting the upper boundary of the channel. Price action remains bullish as long as support at 1.3352 holds.
The 50-period SMA at 1.3262 continues to trend upward, confirming strong bullish structure. However, the RSI is now at 81.64, indicating overbought conditions that could trigger a short-term pullback or consolidation before another leg higher.
The entry zone at 1.3352 aligns with the mid-channel support and could attract dip buyers. A bounce from this level would target 1.3412 initially, followed by 1.3458 if bullish momentum continues. A breakdown below 1.3308 would negate the setup and shift short-term bias.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.33522
Take Profit – 1.34127
Stop Loss – 1.33078
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$605/ -$444
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$60/ -$44
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The pound rose to near $1.3350 against the dollar in early Monday trading as the dollar weakened. Investors are getting nervous about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies and some are now openly wondering if this could lead to a slowdown in the US economy.
Markets took note as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to President Trump for the first time since the White House imposed tariffs on British exports.
Starmer reportedly told Trump that trade should be open but national interests should be protected. According to Downing Street both sides described the call as “ongoing and productive”.
The latest Trump tariffs – 10% on UK goods and 25% on cars, steel and aluminium – have ratcheted up tensions. But hopes of a broader US-UK trade deal are propping up the pound for now as traders see progress in talks as a counterweight to tariff disruption.
Fed Caution May Cap Sterling Gains
Despite the pound’s strength the outlook for GBP/USD could be clouded by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week.
He said rising tariffs could drive up inflation and slow down the economy – making it harder for the central bank to decide what to do next. But he said no immediate rate change, saying they need to “wait for more clarity”.
These comments suggest a delicate balance ahead for the Fed: navigating inflation risk while managing growth expectations.
If US data shows resilience or if Fed officials get more hawkish the dollar could bounce back – limiting how far the pound can go from here.
For now sentiment is in favour of the pound as the diplomatic tone improves and the dollar softens. But traders will be watching for any change in Fed speak or concrete outcomes from US-UK trade talks.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel and recently surged above the 1.3350 resistance area. The pair is now consolidating near 1.3412 — a key horizontal level — after rejecting the upper boundary of the channel. Price action remains bullish as long as support at 1.3352 holds.
The 50-period SMA at 1.3262 continues to trend upward, confirming strong bullish structure. However, the RSI is now at 81.64, indicating overbought conditions that could trigger a short-term pullback or consolidation before another leg higher.
The entry zone at 1.3352 aligns with the mid-channel support and could attract dip buyers. A bounce from this level would target 1.3412 initially, followed by 1.3458 if bullish momentum continues. A breakdown below 1.3308 would negate the setup and shift short-term bias.
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