GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 21, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
The pound rose to near $1.3350 against the dollar in early Monday trading as the dollar weakened. Investors are getting nervous about the economic impact of President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policies and some are now openly wondering if this could lead to a slowdown in the US economy.
Markets took note as UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer spoke to President Trump for the first time since the White House imposed tariffs on British exports.
Starmer reportedly told Trump that trade should be open but national interests should be protected. According to Downing Street both sides described the call as “ongoing and productive”.
The latest Trump tariffs – 10% on UK goods and 25% on cars, steel and aluminium – have ratcheted up tensions. But hopes of a broader US-UK trade deal are propping up the pound for now as traders see progress in talks as a counterweight to tariff disruption.
Fed Caution May Cap Sterling Gains
Despite the pound’s strength the outlook for GBP/USD could be clouded by comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week.
He said rising tariffs could drive up inflation and slow down the economy – making it harder for the central bank to decide what to do next. But he said no immediate rate change, saying they need to “wait for more clarity”.
These comments suggest a delicate balance ahead for the Fed: navigating inflation risk while managing growth expectations.
If US data shows resilience or if Fed officials get more hawkish the dollar could bounce back – limiting how far the pound can go from here.
For now sentiment is in favour of the pound as the diplomatic tone improves and the dollar softens. But traders will be watching for any change in Fed speak or concrete outcomes from US-UK trade talks.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel and recently surged above the 1.3350 resistance area. The pair is now consolidating near 1.3412 — a key horizontal level — after rejecting the upper boundary of the channel. Price action remains bullish as long as support at 1.3352 holds.
The 50-period SMA at 1.3262 continues to trend upward, confirming strong bullish structure. However, the RSI is now at 81.64, indicating overbought conditions that could trigger a short-term pullback or consolidation before another leg higher.
The entry zone at 1.3352 aligns with the mid-channel support and could attract dip buyers. A bounce from this level would target 1.3412 initially, followed by 1.3458 if bullish momentum continues. A breakdown below 1.3308 would negate the setup and shift short-term bias.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Channel Trend Holds: Price remains within ascending channel, targeting higher resistance at 1.3412.
- Overbought RSI: At 81.64, suggests possible near-term retracement.
- SMA Supports Trend: 50-SMA at 1.3262 provides a reliable support base for buyers.
GBP/USD continues to trade within a well-defined ascending channel and recently surged above the 1.3350 resistance area. The pair is now consolidating near 1.3412 — a key horizontal level — after rejecting the upper boundary of the channel. Price action remains bullish as long as support at 1.3352 holds.
The 50-period SMA at 1.3262 continues to trend upward, confirming strong bullish structure. However, the RSI is now at 81.64, indicating overbought conditions that could trigger a short-term pullback or consolidation before another leg higher.
The entry zone at 1.3352 aligns with the mid-channel support and could attract dip buyers. A bounce from this level would target 1.3412 initially, followed by 1.3458 if bullish momentum continues. A breakdown below 1.3308 would negate the setup and shift short-term bias.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Limit 1.33522
Take Profit – 1.34127
Stop Loss – 1.33078
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.3
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$605/ -$444
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$60/ -$44
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 16, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session on Wednesday, the GBP/USD saw a rise, reversing earlier losses, after the UK released softer-than-expected March Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.
Meanwhile, the headline CPI increased by 2.6% year-on-year, slightly below the 2.7% forecast and down from February’s 2.8%. Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, rose by 3.4%, missing the 3.5% expectation. The month-on-month CPI grew by 0.3%, down from 0.4% in February, showing easing inflation in the UK.
As a result of the softer inflation data, markets are adjusting their expectations for the Bank of England's future policy. The cooling inflation in the services sector, now at 4.7% from 5%, and the weak labor market outlook raise the chances of a dovish shift by the BoE in May.
The rise in employers' social security contributions could add pressure on the UK economy, making rate hikes less likely. This has boosted demand for the Pound, pushing GBP/USD to 1.3272, with an intra-day high of 1.3293.
USD Struggles Amid Recession and Trade War Concerns
On the other hand, the US dollar continues to face bearish trend due to concerns about a potential recession and ongoing trade tensions.
These concerns are primarily linked to US President Trump’s economic policies and trade wars, which are raising fears of a slowdown.
The 90-day tariff pause on some US trading partners, excluding China, has failed to reassure markets, with investors still wary of the long-term impacts.
The US economy’s inability to quickly replace Chinese imports could lead to higher prices for substitute goods, dampening consumer spending and economic growth.
Impact of US Dollar Weakness on GBP/USD Amid Trade War Concerns
On the other side, concerns about the ongoing trade war, especially with China, are adding to the US Dollar’s weakness.
The US is still working on trade deals with several countries, including the UK, but the uncertainty surrounding these talks and the potential impact of tariffs is causing worry in the market.
As tariffs increase the cost of imports and put pressure on consumer spending, the outlook for the US economy remains unclear, which is further hurting the US Dollar and causing it to underperform.
Therefore, the US Dollar's weakness, driven by trade war concerns, could benefit the GBP/USD pair, pushing the British Pound higher as market uncertainty reduces confidence in the Dollar's strength.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
GBP/USD is extending its upward momentum after confirming a breakout above the key $1.3207 Fibonacci level. The pair has now entered a higher resistance zone, targeting the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $1.3340.
The rally from the $1.2700 region has been steady, with price consistently printing higher highs and respecting short-term support levels — a sign of sustained buyer interest.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $1.2981, is sloping upward and well below the current price, underlining the strength of the bullish structure.
Momentum indicators also support this trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74.1, showing overbought conditions but not yet diverging. This could signal that bullish sentiment remains intact, though short-term pullbacks should not be ruled out.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.3340. A break above this could expose the next key levels at $1.3412 and $1.3512. On the downside, the first support is seen at $1.3207 — the breakout level — followed by $1.3133, which marks the lower boundary of the most recent bullish impulse.
While overbought signals warrant some caution, price action suggests that dips may offer renewed buying opportunities as long as the pair holds above $1.3133.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Momentum Builds: GBP/USD extends gains beyond $1.3207, targeting the $1.3340 extension.
- Trend Confirmation: Price is well above the 50-SMA, supporting the bullish case.
- Watch RSI: At 74.1, the indicator warns of limited near-term upside without pause.
GBP/USD is extending its upward momentum after confirming a breakout above the key $1.3207 Fibonacci level. The pair has now entered a higher resistance zone, targeting the 1.272 Fibonacci extension at $1.3340.
The rally from the $1.2700 region has been steady, with price consistently printing higher highs and respecting short-term support levels — a sign of sustained buyer interest.
The 50-period Simple Moving Average (SMA), currently at $1.2981, is sloping upward and well below the current price, underlining the strength of the bullish structure.
Momentum indicators also support this trend, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 74.1, showing overbought conditions but not yet diverging. This could signal that bullish sentiment remains intact, though short-term pullbacks should not be ruled out.
Immediate resistance lies at $1.3340. A break above this could expose the next key levels at $1.3412 and $1.3512. On the downside, the first support is seen at $1.3207 — the breakout level — followed by $1.3133, which marks the lower boundary of the most recent bullish impulse.
While overbought signals warrant some caution, price action suggests that dips may offer renewed buying opportunities as long as the pair holds above $1.3133.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.32071
Take Profit – 1.33400
Stop Loss – 1.31333
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1329/ -$738
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$132/ -$73
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 14, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European session on Monday, the GBP/USD pair extended its winning streak, climbing near the 1.3190 mark, its highest level in over two months.
The pair aims to reclaim the six-month high of 1.3207 as the US dollar continues to lose ground amid escalating trade tensions and policy uncertainty in the United States. The ongoing weakness in the US Dollar has been a key driver of the pair’s bullish momentum.
US Dollar Weakens Amid Escalating US-China Trade Tensions and Consumer Sentiment Drop
However, the reason for its bullish trend could be attributed to renewed trade tensions between the US and China. Despite US President Donald Trump announcing a 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, the situation escalated when China raised tariffs on US goods to 125%.
This back-and-forth has shaken investor confidence in the US Dollar, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to drop to 99.00, its lowest point in three years.
Moreover, Trump’s push to bring manufacturing back to the US has raised concerns among American business owners, who worry about sudden policy changes.
These uncertainties have had an impact on consumer sentiment, with the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index falling sharply to 50.8 in April, far below expectations.
Dollar Weakens Amid Fed's Rate Cut Expectations and Economic Uncertainty
On the other side, the Dollar's troubles have deepened as market participants now expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its June meeting. Although the Fed is being cautious, New York Fed President John Williams admitted that predicting the economy is tough given the current political climate.
This uncertainty has made traders expect a more dovish stance from the Fed, which has weakened the US Dollar even further, helping push GBP/USD higher.
UK Economic Data and Trade Tensions Support the Pound
On the other hand, the British Pound has shown strength, supported by positive expectations ahead of important UK economic data.
Labor market and CPI figures due this week are expected to show slight softness in wage and inflation growth, which could reinforce the idea that the Bank of England (BoE) might cut rates in May. Despite this, the Pound remains strong as the UK government takes a proactive approach to handle global trade disruptions.
Former BoE Deputy Governor Charlie Bean has suggested aggressive rate cuts, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves emphasized the need to boost the UK’s trade presence.
Reeves is confident in securing new trade deals with both the EU and the US, aiming to protect the UK economy from external challenges.
Looking ahead, the GBP/USD pair is likely to stay supported as the Fed and BoE follow different policy paths, and ongoing trade uncertainties continue to pressure the US Dollar.
If UK data meets or exceeds expectations and global trade tensions remain, the pair could break above the 1.3200 level in the near future.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The British pound has resumed its climb against the U.S. dollar, currently trading at $1.31659 after holding the uptrend support. The pair broke above the critical $1.31025 pivot level, turning it into new support and validating a bullish continuation setup.
RSI is above 73, suggesting buying momentum remains elevated, although price is now flirting with overbought conditions.
Price action is aligned with a rising trendline, and as long as that structure holds, the bullish case toward $1.32078 remains valid. If this resistance breaks convincingly, GBP/USD could extend to $1.32697, and potentially toward the psychological barrier at $1.33236. A pullback below $1.31025, however, would expose the market to deeper corrections toward $1.30387 and $1.29847.
The technical setup favors a bullish bias as long as price stays above $1.31025. Traders may consider initiating long positions on a sustained break, aiming for $1.32078 while managing risk tightly below $1.30387.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Breakout above $1.31025 strengthens bullish outlook
- RSI in overbought zone signals momentum, but caution warranted
- Trendline structure and SMA support the upward bias
The British pound has resumed its climb against the U.S. dollar, currently trading at $1.31659 after holding the uptrend support. The pair broke above the critical $1.31025 pivot level, turning it into new support and validating a bullish continuation setup.
RSI is above 73, suggesting buying momentum remains elevated, although price is now flirting with overbought conditions.
Price action is aligned with a rising trendline, and as long as that structure holds, the bullish case toward $1.32078 remains valid. If this resistance breaks convincingly, GBP/USD could extend to $1.32697, and potentially toward the psychological barrier at $1.33236. A pullback below $1.31025, however, would expose the market to deeper corrections toward $1.30387 and $1.29847.
The technical setup favors a bullish bias as long as price stays above $1.31025. Traders may consider initiating long positions on a sustained break, aiming for $1.32078 while managing risk tightly below $1.30387.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Buy Above 1.31025
Take Profit – 1.32078
Stop Loss – 1.30387
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.6
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1053/ -$638
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$105/ -$63
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 09, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the early European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward momentum and remained well-supported above the 1.2800 mark, reaching an intraday high of 1.2864. The rise was largely driven by easing trade tensions and growing expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates soon. This positive sentiment helped the pair stay strong as market participants continued to react to the possibility of a more dovish Fed stance.
GBP/USD Rally Supported by Renewed Trade Optimism and US Negotiation Signals
However, the bullish rally in the GBP/USD pair was boosted by renewed optimism after US President Donald Trump expressed a willingness to negotiate with global trade partners. This signaled a potential easing of ongoing trade tensions. His comments came as US Customs and Border Protection announced plans to start collecting country-specific tariffs from 86 trade partners.
Despite maintaining his broader tariff plans, President Trump indicated a willingness to engage in discussions, sparking hopes for a more conciliatory approach to global trade relations.
Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that nearly 70 countries, including Japan, had reached out to Washington for talks, further fueling optimism about a potential resolution. This reduction in trade uncertainties has allowed the GBP to gain support, as UK firms stand to benefit from a decrease in US tariffs.
GBP/USD Boosted by US Rate Cut Expectations and Fed's Dovish Outlook
Apart from this, the ongoing expectations about US monetary policy are also contributing to the strengthening of the British Pound. Markets are now predicting a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve as early as May, with a larger cut expected by July.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, traders are expecting the Fed to lower rates by more than 100 basis points by the end of the year. This outlook puts pressure on the US Dollar, which in turn helps push the GBP/USD pair higher.
At the same time, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted that future monetary policy decisions will be based on economic data, fueling speculation that the Fed might adopt a more dovish approach. However, the concerns about the negative impact of tariffs on the US economy are growing, and traders believe the Fed may need to change its policy to help support economic growth.
This growing uncertainty around the Fed’s actions is putting additional pressure on the US Dollar, further supporting the rise of GBP/USD.
GBP/USD Strength Driven by UK’s Economic Resilience and Shifting Rate Cut Expectations
At the UK front, the country’s relatively low exposure to tariffs, estimated at just 10%, puts it in a better position to handle the impact of global trade tensions compared to other nations. The UK government has also pointed out that the direct effect of tariffs on GDP will be minimal, less than 0.1%. In addition, rising UK gilt yields, with the 10-year yield reaching 4.61%, reflect increasing investor confidence in the UK economy, which further strengthens the British Pound.
Meanwhile, market expectations for rate cuts by the Bank of England (BoE) are also growing. After recent tariff developments, the market now fully expects a rate cut in May, up from 50% previously, and predicts further cuts through 2025. This shift in expectations for both the US and UK central banks is setting up the GBP/USD pair for continued strength in the near future.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
The British pound is attempting a short-term recovery against the U.S. dollar, but gains remain capped below the $1.2835 resistance. After plunging from the $1.3150 high, GBP/USD has been testing broken support levels as resistance, with the pair currently hovering near the trendline retest zone.
Despite the bounce from $1.2711 support, price action remains fragile as the 50-SMA near $1.2923 reinforces downside pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.5, showing a modest uptick in momentum, though still beneath the bullish threshold of 50.
This suggests a recovery is underway but lacks strong conviction. A sustained break below $1.2835 could trigger another leg lower toward $1.2707, with a deeper slide targeting $1.2638 and $1.2559.
From a risk-reward perspective, sellers may view this as a favorable zone to reenter, given the clear rejection at trendline resistance. On the upside, only a clean break above $1.2906 would negate the bearish structure and shift momentum toward $1.2983.
Traders watching macro catalysts, including U.S. CPI data this week, should remain cautious. Until then, short setups remain technically favorable below $1.2835, targeting a retest of recent lows near $1.2707, with a stop above $1.2906 to manage risk.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- GBP/USD faces selling pressure below $1.2835.
- RSI shows weak momentum; 50-SMA caps recovery.
- Breakdown below $1.2707 could open room toward $1.2559.
The British pound is attempting a short-term recovery against the U.S. dollar, but gains remain capped below the $1.2835 resistance. After plunging from the $1.3150 high, GBP/USD has been testing broken support levels as resistance, with the pair currently hovering near the trendline retest zone.
Despite the bounce from $1.2711 support, price action remains fragile as the 50-SMA near $1.2923 reinforces downside pressure.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) sits at 45.5, showing a modest uptick in momentum, though still beneath the bullish threshold of 50.
This suggests a recovery is underway but lacks strong conviction. A sustained break below $1.2835 could trigger another leg lower toward $1.2707, with a deeper slide targeting $1.2638 and $1.2559.
From a risk-reward perspective, sellers may view this as a favorable zone to reenter, given the clear rejection at trendline resistance. On the upside, only a clean break above $1.2906 would negate the bearish structure and shift momentum toward $1.2983.
Traders watching macro catalysts, including U.S. CPI data this week, should remain cautious. Until then, short setups remain technically favorable below $1.2835, targeting a retest of recent lows near $1.2707, with a stop above $1.2906 to manage risk.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.28358
Take Profit – 1.27078
Stop Loss – 1.29068
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1280/ -$710
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$128/ -$71
GBP/USD Price Analysis – April 07, 2025
Daily Price Outlook
During the European trading session, the GBP/USD currency pair has gained some bullish momentum, reaching an intra-day high of 1.2934.
However, this recovery seems to lack strong conviction, as the broader global economic outlook remains uncertain. Despite this, the pair is getting a lift from the ongoing decline in the US Dollar, which has been weakening due to changing market expectations.
Bearish US Dollar Outlook Amid Trade War Concerns and Fed Rate Cut Expectations
However, the reason for the weaker US dollar is growing concern about global economic growth, sparked by US President Donald Trump's announcement of large reciprocal tariffs.
These tariffs have raised fears of a prolonged trade war, which could slow down global economic activity. This uncertainty has shaken investor confidence, leading to lower risk appetite and significant losses in global stock markets.
While the US Dollar initially strengthened as a safe-haven currency, its rise has started to slow down as market expectations shift towards the Federal Reserve taking a more dovish approach.
Therefore, this shift in market expectations has led to a more cautious outlook for the USD. Investors now expect the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates again, especially if the US economy slows down due to the tariffs.
As a result, the USD has had trouble attracting buyers, which has helped support the GBP/USD pair.
GBP Strengthened by BoE's Slower Rate Cuts and Positive Outlook for GBP/USD
On the other hand, the British Pound has drawn support from expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) will slow its pace of rate cuts compared to other central banks, including the Fed.
Therefore, the BoE's slower pace of rate cuts compared to the Fed strengthens the GBP, supporting a more positive outlook for the GBP/USD pair, potentially leading to upward movement in its value.
GBP/USD – Technical Analysis
After an aggressive sell-off from $1.3206, the British pound (GBP/USD) has entered a corrective phase, but gains remain capped below the $1.2955 resistance level. The pair is trading just under the 50-period SMA at $1.2957, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement—now acting as resistance.
Price failed to sustain above the key pivot at $1.2913 and is hovering near a critical support zone. If this level breaks, it may open the door toward $1.2821, where the ascending trendline converges with horizontal support.
Downside pressure is reinforced by a sharply falling RSI, currently at 38.71, suggesting bearish momentum still has room to run. The 50 SMA has flattened, pointing to market indecision in the near term. A deeper pullback could extend toward $1.2769 or even $1.2720 if $1.2821 fails to hold.
That said, upside risks remain if GBP/USD can clear $1.2955 decisively. A sustained move higher could see the pair test $1.3014 and $1.3060—levels aligning with the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the recent drop.
However, without a clean break above the 50 SMA and Fibonacci cluster, rallies are likely to face selling pressure. Bias favors the downside as long as price stays below $1.2955. Break below $1.2821 opens room for deeper retracement toward $1.2720.
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GBP/USD Price Analysis and Trade Forecast: Daily Trading Signal
Daily Price Outlook
- Bearish bias below $1.2955, with the 50 SMA and Fibonacci resistance reinforcing downside pressure.
- Support at $1.2821 is critical—a break below could accelerate the move toward $1.2769 and $1.2720.
- RSI at 38.71 signals increasing bearish momentum, with rallies likely to face resistance unless $1.2955 is reclaimed.
After an aggressive sell-off from $1.3206, the British pound (GBP/USD) has entered a corrective phase, but gains remain capped below the $1.2955 resistance level. The pair is trading just under the 50-period SMA at $1.2957, which coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement—now acting as resistance.
Price failed to sustain above the key pivot at $1.2913 and is hovering near a critical support zone. If this level breaks, it may open the door toward $1.2821, where the ascending trendline converges with horizontal support.
Downside pressure is reinforced by a sharply falling RSI, currently at 38.71, suggesting bearish momentum still has room to run. The 50 SMA has flattened, pointing to market indecision in the near term. A deeper pullback could extend toward $1.2769 or even $1.2720 if $1.2821 fails to hold.
That said, upside risks remain if GBP/USD can clear $1.2955 decisively. A sustained move higher could see the pair test $1.3014 and $1.3060—levels aligning with the 50% and 61.8% retracements of the recent drop.
However, without a clean break above the 50 SMA and Fibonacci cluster, rallies are likely to face selling pressure. Bias favors the downside as long as price stays below $1.2955. Break below $1.2821 opens room for deeper retracement toward $1.2720.
GBP/USD - Trade Ideas
Entry Price – Sell Below 1.29548
Take Profit – 1.28216
Stop Loss – 1.30258
Risk to Reward – 1: 1.8
Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1332/ -$710
Profit & Loss Per Mini Lot = +$133/ -$71