Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair has demonstrated a notable upward trajectory, now challenging the 1.2625 threshold. Its current posture above this level augments the prospects of further appreciation, laying the groundwork for an intraday bullish momentum. We anticipate a potential trajectory towards the 1.2725 region in the near future.

For the forthcoming trading sessions: A successful breach of the 1.2660 level could expedite the bullish momentum.

However, an inability to sustain above the 1.2625 mark might curb the anticipated rise, potentially reversing the trend to a decline.

Today's forecasted trading band is set between a support of 1.2560 and a resistance at 1.2725.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.26088

Take Profit – 1.26741

Stop Loss – 1.25583

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$653/ -$505

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$65/ -$50

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair has encountered robust support at the 1.2625 level, prompting a substantial upward rebound that led to a robust test of the pivotal resistance at 1.2725. It's worth noting that the stochastic indicator is displaying evident signs of waning positive momentum, while the EMA50 is exerting downward pressure on the price movement.

Considering these factors, we hold the view that the conditions are conducive for a resumption of bearish trading dynamics in the forthcoming trading sessions. The initial targets in this projection involve a retest of the 1.2625 level. It is important to acknowledge that breaching the 1.2725 resistance level would invalidate the bearish scenario, potentially initiating a reversal towards higher price levels.

The projected trading range for the current day spans from the support level of 1.2620 to the resistance level of 1.2780. The prevailing trend for today is anticipated to lean towards the bearish side.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 1.27292

Take Profit – 1.26658

Stop Loss – 1.27701

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$634/ -$409

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$63/ -$40

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its slide and continued to drop on Thursday, trading around 1.2710. However, this decline can be linked to disappointing UK PMI data, which showed slower economic growth in the UK. The UK's preliminary PMI data, released on Wednesday, was worse than expected. In the meantime, the S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI for August fell to 47.9, down from the previous 50.8 and below the expected 50.3. This drop took the index below 50, indicating economic contraction for the first time since January. As a result, the GBP/USD pair faces downward pressure due to concerns about the UK economy's performance.

Impact on GBP/USD Pair: Weaker PMIs and Cautious Investors

The GBP/USD currency pair initially declined, but found some support as US PMIs also disappointed, causing the US dollar to weaken alongside declining Treasury yields. August's S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in the US dropped to 47, below expectations of 49.3, while the Services PMI fell to 51 from 52.3, missing the expected 52.2.

These weaker PMIs signal slower economic growth in both the UK and the US, reducing the probability of upcoming interest rate hikes by their respective central banks. Investors are cautious, awaiting more economic and inflation insights as they watch the US Dollar Index at 103.40 and prepare for Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium.

Key Economic Data to Watch for GBP/USD Traders

Traders will keep a close eye on the upcoming release of US Initial Jobless Claims and the UK's GfK Consumer Confidence data for August. These reports could provide important insights into the economic situations in both countries, offering new information for GBP/USD traders to consider.

GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBP/USD currency pair has encountered robust support at the 1.2625 level, prompting a substantial upward rebound that led to a robust test of the pivotal resistance at 1.2725. It's worth noting that the stochastic indicator is displaying evident signs of waning positive momentum, while the EMA50 is exerting downward pressure on the price movement.

Considering these factors, we hold the view that the conditions are conducive for a resumption of bearish trading dynamics in the forthcoming trading sessions. The initial targets in this projection involve a retest of the 1.2625 level. It is important to acknowledge that breaching the 1.2725 resistance level would invalidate the bearish scenario, potentially initiating a reversal towards higher price levels.

The projected trading range for the current day spans from the support level of 1.2620 to the resistance level of 1.2780. The prevailing trend for today is anticipated to lean towards the bearish side.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair exhibited a downward rebound subsequent to reaching the 1.2800 barrier in the preceding sessions. This movement aimed to test the established support level just above 1.2725. It is worth noting that the price is currently consolidating above this level, complemented by distinct positive signals observed in the stochastic indicator.

Consequently, we maintain the view that there are viable opportunities for the anticipated bullish sentiment to resume in the intraday context. This projection targets the 1.2825 level as the subsequent key target. It is important to highlight that a breach of the 1.2725 level would invalidate the positive scenario, potentially prompting a resumption of downward movement.

The anticipated trading range for the day is expected to be confined between the support at 1.2680 and the resistance at 1.2830.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 1.27399

Take Profit – 1.27831

Stop Loss – 1.27018

Risk to Reward – 1: 13

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$432/ -$381

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$43/ -$38

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair continued a small upward movement from last night but is having difficulty gaining strong momentum. It's trading in a narrow range, staying below the mid-1.2700s level during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, the recent modest upward trend could be attributed to the bearish US dollar. The broad-based US dollar lost some strength as US bond yields decreased, and there's a slightly positive attitude towards riskier assets, which makes the safe-haven dollar less attractive.

Looking ahead, traders are being cautious about making big trades before the release of UK/US PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) and the Jackson Hole Symposium.

USD's Performance, Fed's Stance, and Market Caution Ahead of Jackson Hole Symposium

The broad-based US dollar, tracked by the USD Index (DXY) against various currencies, couldn't maintain its gains from Tuesday when it reached its highest level since July 12. This happened even though the US Treasury bond yields decreased slightly. Additionally, a positive outlook for US stock futures weakened the safe-haven appeal of the dollar and supported the GBP/USD pair (British pound against the US dollar).

The Federal Reserve is expected to stick with its plan of keeping interest rates higher for a longer period, which influences the dollar's performance. On top of that, concerns about China's worsening economic situation are also impacting the dollar. These factors combined are preventing the dollar from falling too much and are capping the gains for the GBP/USD pair.

Traders are also being cautious before the important Jackson Hole Symposium, where central banks' statements could bring significant market volatility. Because of this upcoming event, traders are holding back from making strong bets.

British Pound's Resilience and Upcoming Economic Data

Furthermore, the British Pound (GBP) is gaining added strength due to increasing expectations of more interest rate hikes by the Bank of England (BoE). Current market trends indicate a likelihood of over 80% for a 25 basis points increase during the upcoming BoE meeting in September. This growing confidence in rate hikes has been fueled by the recent news that wages in the UK experienced a notable increase in the second quarter, reaching a new record growth rate.

This development has raised concerns about potential long-term inflation, even following a sequence of 14 consecutive rate hikes that brought rates to a 15-year high in August. Besides, the positive UK GDP report and a slightly higher UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading further support the potential for the BoE to continue tightening its monetary policy.

Looking ahead, the release of the flash PMI numbers from the UK and the US on Wednesday will be closely observed for chances in short-term trading. These figures offer new perspectives on the overall economic well-being and whether the central banks can consider more interest rate hikes. This has a direct impact on the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair exhibited a downward rebound subsequent to reaching the 1.2800 barrier in the preceding sessions. This movement aimed to test the established support level just above 1.2725. It is worth noting that the price is currently consolidating above this level, complemented by distinct positive signals observed in the stochastic indicator.

Consequently, we maintain the view that there are viable opportunities for the anticipated bullish sentiment to resume in the intraday context. This projection targets the 1.2825 level as the subsequent key target. It is important to highlight that a breach of the 1.2725 level would invalidate the positive scenario, potentially prompting a resumption of downward movement.

The anticipated trading range for the day is expected to be confined between the support at 1.2680 and the resistance at 1.2830.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair stopped its three-day winning trend and is currently around 1.2720 on Friday. This is happening because retail sales data from the UK, showing weaker numbers, has pushed the pair down. Furthermore, there is a caution sentiment due to increased risk aversion, strong US Treasury yields, and ongoing economic issues in China, all of which are putting pressure on GBP/USD.

These factors might make the US Dollar stronger and could affect the direction of the pair. Traders might be more careful after UK inflation numbers, which were released on Wednesday. These numbers have already boosted the pair, and there's worry they might lead the Bank of England (BoE) to consider raising interest rates in their September meeting.

UK Retail Sales Drop More Than Expected, Pressuring GBP/USD

According to the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS), UK Retail Sales took a 1.2% tumble in July compared to the expected decrease of 0.5%. This decline follows a 0.6% growth in the previous month. The Core Retail Sales, which excludes car fuel sales, also saw a drop of 1.4% in July, worse than the anticipated decrease of 0.7%.

On a yearly basis, Retail Sales went down by 3.2% in July, more than the expected 2.1% decrease, while Core Retail Sales fell 3.4%, surpassing the expected 2.2% drop. These disappointing numbers have pushed GBP/USD to test daily lows around 1.2725, trading at 1.2727 with a 0.09% decline for the day.

US Dollar Pulls Back Despite Positive Data; Market Cautious About Inflation Clues

The broad-based US dollar is giving back some of its recent gains. The DXY, which tracks the dollar against major currencies, is hovering around 103.40. However, this retreat comes despite better US data, creating caution in the market as it looks for more clues about inflation. For instance, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending on August 11 decreased to 239K from the previous 250K, slightly beating the expected 240K. Meanwhile, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey for August showed improvement, rising to 12 from the earlier -13.5, higher than the anticipated -10.

Key Data Releases and Jackson Hole Symposium Await in the Upcoming Week

Looking forward to the next week, investors will keep an eye on important data releases in the US and the UK. In the US, Home Sales figures and early S&P Global PMI surveys for August will be in focus. Similarly, the UK will release its PMI survey and GfK Consumer Confidence data for August. These numbers will give us a clearer picture of how both economies are doing and could influence decisions about trading the GBP/USD pair.

GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair has successfully breached the resistance line of the bearish channel and established itself above it, signaling an attempt to achieve intraday gains. However, it's noteworthy that the stochastic indicator has shifted from positive momentum to a negative overlap, indicating the potential for a resumption of the corrective bearish trend. This trend is directed towards the 1.2625 region as the next key target.

As a result, it is anticipated that the upcoming trading sessions may witness downward movement. To facilitate progress towards the aforementioned target, a breakthrough of the 1.2725 level is crucial. Conversely, surpassing the 1.2825 threshold would halt the negative projection and prompt a reversal towards higher levels.

The projected trading range for today is expected to be positioned between the support at 1.2660 and the resistance at 1.2825.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair has successfully breached the resistance line of the bearish channel and established itself above it, signaling an attempt to achieve intraday gains. However, it's noteworthy that the stochastic indicator has shifted from positive momentum to a negative overlap, indicating the potential for a resumption of the corrective bearish trend. This trend is directed towards the 1.2625 region as the next key target.

As a result, it is anticipated that the upcoming trading sessions may witness downward movement. To facilitate progress towards the aforementioned target, a breakthrough of the 1.2725 level is crucial. Conversely, surpassing the 1.2825 threshold would halt the negative projection and prompt a reversal towards higher levels.

The projected trading range for today is expected to be positioned between the support at 1.2660 and the resistance at 1.2825.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 0.64343

Take Profit – 0.63331

Stop Loss – 0.65008

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.50

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$1012/ -$665

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$101/ -$66

Daily Price Outlook

Despite the strong performance of the US dollar, the GBP/USD currency pair has continued its upward trend, gaining considerable momentum and surpassing the 1.2712 level. This upward movement has been bolstered by the encouraging economic growth figures recently released in the UK.

Furthermore, positive developments in wage growth and an unexpected positive outcome in Employment Change have created a favorable environment for the British pound. However, it's worth noting that the ongoing strength of the US dollar has acted as a limiting factor, capping further gains in the the GBP/USD pair.

UK Wage Growth and BoE Outlook Impact on GBP/USD Pair

Moreover, the Chartered Institute of Personnel and Development in the UK recently conducted a survey, and their findings have added another interesting layer to the ongoing story. According to the survey, HR executives are anticipating a solid 5% increase in basic pay rates. This steady upward trend in wages aligns with the optimistic outlook for the Bank of England (BoE).

All eyes are now eagerly awaiting the release of the upcoming UK wage growth data. The predictions are pointing towards a potentially record-breaking high in wage growth for the month of July. Hence, the strong outcome from this data will likely enhance the prospects of a BoE interest rate hike in November, a move that could have a positive impact on the value of the British Pound.

However, it's important to acknowledge the flip side as well. If the wage growth data falls short of expectations, there might be concerns about a potential economic recession. This could result in a shift in sentiment, leading the GBP/USD currency pair to move in the opposite direction, as market participants reassess the economic landscape.

US Dollar Strength Impacts GBP/USD Amidst Fed's Stance and Global Factors

Moreover, traders are treading cautiously when it comes to betting on the GBP/USD pair due to the robust stance of the US Dollar. The USD Index (DXY), which measures the dollar against other currencies, is lingering around a two-month peak achieved earlier this week. This is mainly because of the widespread belief that the Federal Reserve intends to stick with higher interest rates for the foreseeable future. This sentiment got a boost from US data indicating ongoing challenges in reaching the Fed's 2% inflation target.

GBP/USD - Technical analysis

The GBP/USD pair adeptly met our initial forecasted target at 1.2625, encountering robust support at this juncture. This was accompanied by a transient bullish inclination. Intriguingly, the stochastic indicator has unmistakably lost its upward drive, while the EMA50 consistently exerts downward pressure on the currency's valuation.

Given these dynamics, our prognosis leans towards a bearish trajectory for the ensuing phase. For this forecast to materialize, the pair must decisively penetrate the aforementioned 1.2625 mark, setting its sights on 1.2505 as the subsequent bearish milestone. It's crucial to underscore that any surge beyond 1.2725, and subsequently 1.2825, would negate this bearish outlook, potentially catalyzing an upward price movement.

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair adeptly met our initial forecasted target at 1.2625, encountering robust support at this juncture. This was accompanied by a transient bullish inclination. Intriguingly, the stochastic indicator has unmistakably lost its upward drive, while the EMA50 consistently exerts downward pressure on the currency's valuation.

Given these dynamics, our prognosis leans towards a bearish trajectory for the ensuing phase. For this forecast to materialize, the pair must decisively penetrate the aforementioned 1.2625 mark, setting its sights on 1.2505 as the subsequent bearish milestone. It's crucial to underscore that any surge beyond 1.2725, and subsequently 1.2825, would negate this bearish outlook, potentially catalyzing an upward price movement.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Stop 1.27289

Take Profit – 1.27931

Stop Loss – 1.26644

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$642/ -$645

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$64/ -$64

Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD pair successfully breached the 1.2725 level and concluded the daily candlestick below it. This development reinforces the anticipation of a sustained bearish trend in the forthcoming trading sessions, thereby paving the way for a potential move towards 1.2825 as the next downside target.

The influence of the EMA50 indicator continues to align with the projected bearish wave. It's noteworthy that surpassing the 1.2725 level would alleviate the present downward pressure, initiating potential recovery attempts aimed at reaching the 1.2825 regions initially.

For today's trading outlook, the projected range is set between the support level of 1.2625 and the resistance level of 1.2790.

GBP/USD - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Stop 1.28112

Take Profit – 1.29034

Stop Loss – 1.26950

Risk to Reward – 1: 0.80

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$922/ -$1162

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$92/ -$116