Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment unable to stop its bearish trend and remains negative, thanks to the ongoing worries about the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and issues in China. Notably, the S&P 500 Futures have been declining for four consecutive days, currently sitting at their lowest level in a week at around 4,468.

Meanwhile, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields hover around 4.30%, near the recent high of 4.29%, while the two-year bond yields have dropped from their weekly peak to 5.01%, marking their first daily loss in four days. Hence, the market is facing a bearish trend, with no signs of improvement due to fears of slower economic growth and recession in China.

Moving on, traders are keeping an eye on China's foreign trade data for August and speeches from several Federal Reserve officials. However, worries about economic slowdowns in China, the Eurozone, and the UK are conflicting with concerns about a soft landing in the US. This contrast is maintaining a risk-off sentiment in the market.

Global Economic Concerns Impact Investor Sentiment

It is worth noting that the recently released disappointing Caixin Services PMI in China, coupled with uncertainties surrounding China's stimulus efforts, have heightened concerns about a potential economic downturn in Beijing. Furthermore, escalating tensions between the United States and China regarding trade and Taiwan are further fueling the risk off sentiment in the market.

Meanwhile, the economic reports from the Eurozone and the United Kingdom indicate a downbeat economic outlook. This is making investors even more cautious. Thus, these factors are contributing in risk-off sentiment in the market, with investors opting for lower-risk options.

China's Economic Measures and Global Tensions Impact Investor Confidence

As we all are well aware China has been taking steps to boost its struggling economy after facing challenges during the pandemic. However, they have implemented various policies, and more are expected soon. Nevertheless, investor confidence is still low because of worries about China's weakening economy and the ongoing trade disputes with the United States.

These concerns might reduce the demand for precious metals. In the meantime, the G20 leaders' summit is happening this Saturday in New Delhi. President Joe Biden will attend, but Chinese President Xi Jinping won't be there. This exacerbates the already damaging relationship between the two superpowers countries.

Strong US Economic Data Drives Dollar Confidence

The US Dollar Index (DXY), measuring the US dollar's performance against other major currencies, is hovering around 104.90, near its highest level since April. This is driven by positive news about the US economy, including lower-than-expected Initial Jobless Claims at 216K (compared to an expected 234K) and an increase in Unit Labor Costs to 2.2% for the second quarter, in line with expectations. Thereby, investors expect a more hawkish approach from the US Federal Reserve with expected interest rate hikes of 25 basis points in November and December. This bolstering market sentiment and confidence in the US economy.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

The technical outlook for the S&P 500 presents a captivating picture. While there have been slight variations akin to light rain, the $4400 level captures my focus. A detailed look indicates the 50-day exponential moving average providing solid resistance around $4475.

What stands out is the affirmation from candle closures below this mark, indicating a potential downward trend. Examining the technical metrics, both the relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence indicators remain stable in the sell zone, hinting chances of a bearish movement.

Furthermore, the S&P 500 showcases the potential to target the $4390 mark. Achieving this could set the stage for the next target at $4350. On the flip side, bullish cross above $4475 might push the index towards the $4500 or $4545 areas. Given these insights, it's wise to stay alert and consider a selling around the $4475 mark for the day.

Daily Price Outlook

Upon examining the technical aspects of the S&P 500, it currently indicates fluctuations around the 4430 level. Analyzing the four-hour chart, the S&P 500 has rebounded from a significant support level of 4350. The manner in which the candles have closed suggests that the S&P 500 carries potential upside momentum.

It is nearing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level situated around 4440. Should the S&P 500 maintain its position above this level, it will likely encounter the next significant resistance at approximately 4475. Further upwards, another major resistance aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, amplified by a 61.8% extension. Conversely, if the S&P 500 drops below the 4400 level, subsequent support can be expected at 4450 and 4335.

The pivotal focus remains on the crucial support level of 4400, which is also today's pivot point. A stance above this level indicates a probable continuation of the bullish trend, while a position below may suggest further selling pressure.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Buy Above 4400

Take Profit – 4470

Stop Loss – 4350

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$700/ -$500

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$70/ -$50

Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment has been up and down recently. At the beginning of the week, things looked positive, but now on early Tuesday, people are becoming more cautious. Traders are trying to figure out if this positive feeling will last, especially because there isn't much important news today in Asia and not many big economic updates.

Currently, the S&P 500 Futures are not showing a clear direction and remains dicey around 4,445 points. This comes after a couple of days of gains. At the same time, the yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond, which is an important indicator of borrowing costs and market confidence, is staying around 4.19%.

Central Bankers' Challenges and Rate Hike Uncertainty

It's important to mention that central bankers worldwide are facing challenges due to mixed economic data and recession worries. Traders are paying close attention, especially after policymakers discussed their cautious strategies at the Jackson Hole Symposium last week. Jerome Powell, who leads the US Federal Reserve, is considering raising interest rates to control borrowing. However, decisions depend on the economy's performance, creating uncertainty. Another banker, Loretta Mester, suggests raising rates, possibly not immediately in September. Chances of rate increases in November have improved recently according to predictive tools.

Hence, this news has left market sentiment uncertain as central bankers grapple with mixed data and recession concerns. Traders are attentive due to potential rate hikes and economic uncertainties discussed at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

Market Impact: Trade Talks, IMF Meeting, and Economic Sentiment

Besides this, there's mixed news about US-China trade talks, and the IMF's leader plans to meet China's leaders. This is making people more cautious about taking risks in the market. China's effort to boost its economy by reducing stock trading costs aligns with the mood at the Jackson Hole Symposium, where no surprising economic decisions were made. As a result, the US dollar is slightly weaker versus other currencies. This news is making the market more cautious due to mixed US-China trade talk updates and the IMF's interest in China. China's economy-boosting move and uneventful Jackson Hole Symposium have slightly weakened the US dollar.

Looking forward, traders will focus on Germany's GfK Consumer Confidence Survey for September, followed by the US Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for August. More importantly, attention will be on the US Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index for July and August's Nonfarm Payrolls. These indicators will play a significant role in shaping market trends.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

Upon examining the technical aspects of the S&P 500, it currently indicates fluctuations around the 4430 level. Analyzing the four-hour chart, the S&P 500 has rebounded from a significant support level of 4350. The manner in which the candles have closed suggests that the S&P 500 carries potential upside momentum.

It is nearing the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level situated around 4440. Should the S&P 500 maintain its position above this level, it will likely encounter the next significant resistance at approximately 4475. Further upwards, another major resistance aligns with the 61.8% retracement level, amplified by a 61.8% extension. Conversely, if the S&P 500 drops below the 4400 level, subsequent support can be expected at 4450 and 4335.

The pivotal focus remains on the crucial support level of 4400, which is also today's pivot point. A stance above this level indicates a probable continuation of the bullish trend, while a position below may suggest further selling pressure.

Daily Price Outlook

Examining the technical aspects of the S&P 500, it's evident that the index has encountered resistance around the 4450 level, leading to a consolidative phase. Looking ahead, the potential scenario for the S&P 500 involves a potential decline towards the next support level at 4339. This level gains significance from its previous role as support on August 18th.

Should the S&P 500 breach the aforementioned support, the subsequent support level is anticipated at 4460, followed by a deeper support around 4170. On the flip side, if the S&P 500 manages to overcome the 4450 level, it would likely encounter immediate resistance around 4525, with further resistance extending beyond that, targeting the 4600 level.

Simultaneously, observing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, both indicators are situated within the sell zone. This, in conjunction with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) also residing in the sell zone, suggests that the bearish momentum remains robust.

Given this analysis, it's prudent to focus on the 4450 level. A break below this level could trigger selling positions, particularly considering the significant distance from this point. Additionally, keeping an eye on the psychological resistance level of 4400 is recommended, as breaching this level could potentially push the S&P 500 further downwards, targeting the 4339 level. Further developments should be closely monitored, especially if a break below 4339 occurs, as this could lead to a subsequent target of 4265.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea 

Entry Price – Sell Below 4403

Take Profit – 4336

Stop Loss – 4468

Risk to Reward – 1: 1

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$670/ -$650

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$67/ -$65

Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment is cautious due to upcoming speeches by leading central bankers at the Jackson Hole Symposium. Meanwhile, the lack of key data in Asia and mixed feelings about major economies also contribute to the sluggish mood. As in result, the S&P500 Futures showed a slight drop around 4,385, while US 10-year Treasury bond yields bounce back from the weekly low, up by 2 basis points to 4.25% from the previous day's fall.

Global Market Sentiment Affected by Strong US Dollar and Concerns Over China

Furthermore, the broad-based US dollar hit an 11-week high, while Gold Price saw mild losses but is heading for its first weekly gain in five weeks. In the Asia-Pacific region, stocks followed Wall Street's downward trend, reflecting concerns about China. This was fueled by upbeat US Durable Goods Orders for July and robust mid-tier economic data, which kept the Federal Reserve in a hawkish stance, dampening market sentiment.

Moroever, the fading optimism about US-China relations added to worries as China's Commerce Ministry expressed concerns about trade matters and called for increased credit to businesses. Meanwhile, the prospect of US arms sales to Taiwan raised geopolitical tension ahead of the US Commerce Secretary's visit to Beijing.

Thus, this news has contributed to a cautious global market sentiment, with a stronger US dollar, concerns about China, and hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve all weighing on investor confidence, leading to a generally negative mood in financial markets.

Global Economic Factors and Central Bank Leaders in Focus

Apart from this, Japan has reported lower inflation figures, which are significantly below the Bank of Japan's target, challenging positive expectations. Despite positive PMI data, optimism wanes due to strong US data and central banks favoring prolonged higher interest rates.

Looking ahead, market focus turns to central bank leaders, particularly European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, whose remarks are likely to have a significant impact on financial markets. Their statements will be closely watched for insights into future monetary policies and their effects on global economies.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis

Examining the technical aspects of the S&P 500, it's evident that the index has encountered resistance around the 4450 level, leading to a consolidative phase. Looking ahead, the potential scenario for the S&P 500 involves a potential decline towards the next support level at 4339. This level gains significance from its previous role as support on August 18th.

Should the S&P 500 breach the aforementioned support, the subsequent support level is anticipated at 4460, followed by a deeper support around 4170. On the flip side, if the S&P 500 manages to overcome the 4450 level, it would likely encounter immediate resistance around 4525, with further resistance extending beyond that, targeting the 4600 level.

Simultaneously, observing the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators, both indicators are situated within the sell zone. This, in conjunction with the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) also residing in the sell zone, suggests that the bearish momentum remains robust.

Given this analysis, it's prudent to focus on the 4450 level. A break below this level could trigger selling positions, particularly considering the significant distance from this point. Additionally, keeping an eye on the psychological resistance level of 4400 is recommended, as breaching this level could potentially push the S&P 500 further downwards, targeting the 4339 level. Further developments should be closely monitored, especially if a break below 4339 occurs, as this could lead to a subsequent target of 4265.

Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment has prolonged its upward trend and improved on Wednesday as concerns about US-China relations combined with anticipation for the preliminary August Purchasing Managers Indexes (PMIs) for major economies. As in result, the S&P 500 Futures showed a 0.20% intraday increase, recovering from the previous day's decline. Furthermore, the US 10-year Treasury bond yields decreased by two basis points to 4.31%, following a reversal from the previous day's peak, which was the highest since 2007.

Positive Steps in US-China Relations: Commerce Secretary's Meeting and Sanctions Removal

The US Commerce Department mentioned a positive development on Tuesday. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is set to meet with the Chinese Ambassador and Vice Foreign Minister, Xie Feng, next week. They had a productive discussion before Raimondo's trip to China. This week, the US Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) took 27 Chinese entities off its Unverified List. This action removed sanctions from those entities and raised hopes for better US-China relations.

The positive development of Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo's upcoming meeting with Chinese officials, coupled with the removal of 27 Chinese entities from the Unverified List by the BIS, has generated optimism in the market. This suggests potential improvement in US-China relations, boosting investor sentiment and fostering hopes for enhanced economic cooperation.

Market Sentiment and Economic Factors Influencing Trading

On the flip side, the ongoing concerns about China's economic recovery and a stronger US Dollar are tempering market optimism, especially ahead of upcoming data releases. Despite this, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has pulled back from its recent 10-week high of around 103.50. This retreat follows positive reports on US Existing Home Sales in July and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for August, along with higher Treasury bond yields.

The Existing Home Sales showed a 2.2% decrease compared to the previous month's 3.3% drop. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index matched the market forecast of -7.0, slightly better than the previous -9.0. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond President Thomas Barkin emphasized achieving the 2.0% inflation target and downplayed US recession concerns by suggesting any potential recession would likely be less severe.

He also noted the Fed should consider the possibility of the economy picking up pace, affecting the central bank's inflation strategy. This stance is boosting the risk-on sentiment.

Global Economic Updates and Key Events for Traders

Australia and New Zealand had disappointing PMIs and retail sales, while Japan's PMIs improved, boosting the Yen. Traders are watching US PMIs and Existing Home Sales. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI might rise, but Services could dip slightly. The Australian Dollar might be influenced. The Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday is also important for guidance.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

Analyzing the technical landscape of the S&P 500 reveals an interesting scenario. Despite minor fluctuations reminiscent of a drizzle, my attention has been directed towards the 4400 level. A closer examination unveils the 50-day exponential moving average acting as a robust support pillar at 4385.

The noteworthy development is the confirmation triggered by candle closures above this threshold, signaling a bullish inclination. Delving into the technical indicators, both the relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence indicators exhibit a steady stance, lending weight to the potential for a sustained upward trajectory.

Moreover, a compelling possibility emerges as the S&P 500 demonstrates the capacity to aim for the 4420 level. Should this objective be realized, the subsequent milestone at 4450 looms on the horizon. Conversely, a breach below 4385 could steer the index towards the 4360 or 4336 vicinity. As prudent strategy dictates, maintaining a vigilant stance to seize a buying opportunity around the 4385 level is recommended for the day.

Daily Price Outlook

Analyzing the technical landscape of the S&P 500 reveals an interesting scenario. Despite minor fluctuations reminiscent of a drizzle, my attention has been directed towards the 4400 level. A closer examination unveils the 50-day exponential moving average acting as a robust support pillar at 4385.

The noteworthy development is the confirmation triggered by candle closures above this threshold, signaling a bullish inclination. Delving into the technical indicators, both the relative strength index and the moving average convergence divergence indicators exhibit a steady stance, lending weight to the potential for a sustained upward trajectory.

Moreover, a compelling possibility emerges as the S&P 500 demonstrates the capacity to aim for the 4420 level. Should this objective be realized, the subsequent milestone at 4450 looms on the horizon. Conversely, a breach below 4385 could steer the index towards the 4360 or 4336 vicinity. As prudent strategy dictates, maintaining a vigilant stance to seize a buying opportunity around the 4385 level is recommended for the day.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Above 4388.7

Take Profit – 4420.9

Stop Loss – 4362.6

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.23

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$322/ -$261

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$32/ -$26

Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment failed to stop its downward trend and remains pessimistic amid growing concerns over China's mounting debt issues and escalating global political tensions. As the new week begins, risk appetite continues to dwindle, exacerbated by weekend reports from China highlighting further economic challenges.

In the meantime, the geopolitical worries about Russia are also contributing to the negative mood. This is evident in the S&P500 Futures' decline and US 10-year Treasury bond yields nearing a yearly high of 4.18%.

Market Sentiment Sours Amid China's Debt Woes and Geopolitical Tensions

The global market sentiment turned negative as China's Country Garden has stopped trading its bonds, and some Chinese companies are complaining about not getting paid by a subsidiary of Zhongzhi Enterprise Group. This has triggered record-low bond prices and trading halts for Country Garden. Furthermore, tensions from the US-China trade war and Russia's actions in the Black Sea are also adding to market uncertainty.

US Data and Fed Views Create Mixed Sentiment in Forex Markets

Apart from this, the global market sentiment was also influenced by US data. July's Consumer Price Index (CPI) had a minor effect on September's expectations for the Federal Reserve's actions. Nonetheless, other indicators suggesting a potential interest rate increase bolstered optimism for the US Dollar. The US Producer Price Index (PPI), coupled with the August Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) and inflation expectations, offered additional backing for the strength of the USD.

Meanwhile, Fed Governor Michelle Bowman supported more rate hikes, while others like Mary Daly, Patrick Harker, and John Williams suggested rate cuts in 2024 but emphasized data dependence, leaving policy doves seeking more details for confirmation. Therefore, this news had a mixed impact on the market sentiment as the lack of change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for September Fed policy lessened expectations, but other positive price measures boosted USD.

Upcoming Data Releases and FOMC Minutes Awaited for Market Direction

Looking forward, investors are keeping their eyes on China's upcoming Industrial Production and Retail Sales data for July, set to release on Tuesday. These figures will offer important initial cues, especially ahead of Wednesday's housing data. Besides, the market focus remains on Tuesday's US Retail Sales for July and Wednesday's release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting Minutes, providing insights for market sentiment.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis

The prominent S&P 500 stock market index is currently oscillating around the 4464 mark. This specific support is reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and the candlestick patterns suggest that there is a strong possibility for a continued decline. The S&P 500 finds its next support at approximately 4437, underpinned by the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

Key technical indicators, such as the RSI and MACD, are currently positioned within the bearish territory. Meanwhile, the 50-day exponential moving average indicates a bearish sentiment, offering immediate resistance near the 4472 level. For now, traders should closely monitor the 4475 mark.

A move below this could usher in a more pronounced bearish trend. Conversely, if the index surpasses this level, we could anticipate an uptrend towards 4490 or even an ascent towards 4525. Should the index descend below 4475, there's potential for the S&P 500 to plummet to the 4435 level, with a further potential drop bringing the index close to the 4400 benchmark.

Daily Price Outlook

The prominent S&P 500 stock market index is currently oscillating around the 4464 mark. This specific support is reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and the candlestick patterns suggest that there is a strong possibility for a continued decline. The S&P 500 finds its next support at approximately 4437, underpinned by the 78.6% Fibonacci level.

Key technical indicators, such as the RSI and MACD, are currently positioned within the bearish territory. Meanwhile, the 50-day exponential moving average indicates a bearish sentiment, offering immediate resistance near the 4472 level. For now, traders should closely monitor the 4475 mark.

A move below this could usher in a more pronounced bearish trend. Conversely, if the index surpasses this level, we could anticipate an uptrend towards 4490 or even an ascent towards 4525. Should the index descend below 4475, there's potential for the S&P 500 to plummet to the 4435 level, with a further potential drop bringing the index close to the 4400 benchmark.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 4470

Take Profit – 4400.00

Stop Loss – 4517.00

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.4

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$700/ -$470

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$70/ -$47

Daily Price Outlook

The global markets sentiment prologned its upward trend and remained well positive on Friday as traders are confident that interest rates won't go up due to lower inflation signs. Thereby, the S&P500 Futures, which predict how well the US stock market will do, have gone up by about 0.20% to around 4,490.

This situation arises from the relatively underwhelming recent inflation data in the United States. As a result, the Federal Reserve, responsible for decisions regarding the country's monetary policy, appears to be adopting a more relaxed stance concerning price fluctuations. Meanwhile, Philip Lowe, who leads Australia's central bank, supports thier choice to maintain a stable monetary policy stance to avoid job losses. Thus, the markets are positive as traders feel better about rates and prices.

In addition, recent polls by Reuters show that both the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are likely to keep interest rates unchanged in their upcoming meetings. This decision fosters optimism among traders and plays a role in bolstering the positive momentum in market sentiment.

Global Concerns Impacting Market Sentiment

On the flip side, there is growing concern regarding escalating tensions between Western nations and China. The United States initiated this by implementing regulations pertaining to investments in Chinese technology companies, a move that appears to be influencing the contemplation of similar actions by the United Kingdom and Europe. These developments are inducing a sense of unease among the populace.

Moreover, there's news about a major Chinese real estate company called Country Garden facing financial troubles and needing to reorganize its debt. This, along with worries about upcoming data from the US, is adding to the concerns. Chinese leaders are working hard to protect the value of their currency, the Yuan. This effort is making people more confident that China can manage its economic challenges. As a result, this positive feeling is supporting the recent cautious optimism in the region.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

The primary stock market index is the S&P 500, currently positioned at 4,671.1 points. A thorough analysis of the four-hour timeframe reveals a noteworthy technical perspective for the SPX. This perspective gains significance following its successful breach of the crucial 4,500 level.

In terms of downside potential, should the S&P 500 maintain its position below 4,757.94, there is the possibility of a decline towards the 4,437 level. Examining the longer timeframe, the S&P 500 has already achieved approximately 58.7% of its retracement from the 4,474 level. The presence of the 50-day exponential moving average provides a suggestive context for the continuation of the ongoing downtrend.

Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators offer supportive readings, enhancing the probability of sustained downward momentum. Presently, breaking below 4,450 could potentially provide an opportunity to initiate a short position on the S&P 500, with a target set at 4,437 or even lower to the 4,400 level.