Daily Price Outlook

The primary stock market index is the S&P 500, currently positioned at 4,671.1 points. A thorough analysis of the four-hour timeframe reveals a noteworthy technical perspective for the SPX. This perspective gains significance following its successful breach of the crucial 4,500 level.

In terms of downside potential, should the S&P 500 maintain its position below 4,757.94, there is the possibility of a decline towards the 4,437 level. Examining the longer timeframe, the S&P 500 has already achieved approximately 58.7% of its retracement from the 4,474 level. The presence of the 50-day exponential moving average provides a suggestive context for the continuation of the ongoing downtrend.

Both the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicators offer supportive readings, enhancing the probability of sustained downward momentum. Presently, breaking below 4,450 could potentially provide an opportunity to initiate a short position on the S&P 500, with a target set at 4,437 or even lower to the 4,400 level.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Below 4470

Take Profit – 4400

Stop Loss – 4517

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.5

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$700/ -$470

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$70/ -$47

Daily Price Outlook

The global market sentiment failed to prolong its upward momentum and turned sluggish, fading the cautious optimism that started the week. People are now eagerly awaiting second-tier economic data from both China and the US, which is scheduled for release on Tuesday. This uncertainty comes as major central bankers send mixed signals. Additionally, there is a lack of significant data or events on the horizon until the US inflation report is published on Thursday.

It is worth noting that the S&P500 Futures, which represent how investors feel about the stock market, show slight losses around 4,530. This is a retreat from Friday's monthly low after a small gain on Monday. Meanwhile, the yields on US Treasury bonds, both the 10-year and two-year bonds, are under pressure, hovering around 4.06% and 4.76%, respectively. It's worth noting that Wall Street managed to break its five-day streak of losses on Monday, ending the day with a modest gain.

Market Dynamics: USD Strength, Gold and Oil Weakness, Mixed Central Bank Signals

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has climbed above 102.00, while Gold and Crude Oil prices are showing weakness, both down by 0.20% and 0.50% respectively. However, the uncertainty has been fueled by mixed statements from important central banks like the Federal Reserve (Fed), Bank of England (BoE), Bank of Japan (BoJ), and European Central Bank (ECB).

Fed Governor Michelle Bowman has indicated that more interest rate hikes might be necessary to manage inflation. On the flip side, New York Fed President John C. Williams has suggested that interest rates could decrease next year. Williams has also expressed a desire for a slightly higher unemployment rate as the economy cools down.

European Central Bank and Global Central Bank Insights Impacting Markets

Furthermore, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been in the spotlight due to discussions about high interest rates, sparked by Fitch Ratings, a global rating agency. This caused a dip in the Euro's value, as Fitch mentioned that the possibility of low inflation could lead to a pause in the ECB's rate increases. The ECB itself also noted that the period of highest underlying inflation likely occurred in the first half of 2023.

Meanwhile, Huw Pill, the Chief Economist of the Bank of England, outlined two potential risks for inflation in the United Kingdom. All of these recent events and statements are actively shaping the current financial landscape.

Upcoming Trade Figures and CPI Data: Market Impact Anticipated

Looking ahead, the focus will be on trade data from both China and the US today. However, the China Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday and the US CPI on Thursday will be crucial for traders seeking clear direction. These events will likely have a major impact on the markets.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

Examining the technical aspect of the S&P 500, its current trading stance centers around the 4475 support threshold. This support is further fortified by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, it's important to acknowledge that both the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator are signaling bearish conditions, implying a significant likelihood of a downward correction.

At present, the immediate support is provided by the 61.8% retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average, situated at 4475. Should the price undergo a bearish breach beneath this level, the next potential support lies around 4435.

Conversely, an optimistic scenario entails a breakout above the 4530 resistance level, which could pave the way for the S&P 500 index to target the resistance levels at 4560 or 4600.

For traders, vigilant monitoring of the 4500 level is imperative. This juncture presents a prospective selling opportunity in the event of a bearish breakdown, while a sustained support might indicate a favorable buying opportunity.

Daily Price Outlook

Examining the technical aspect of the S&P 500, its current trading stance centers around the 4475 support threshold. This support is further fortified by the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. However, it's important to acknowledge that both the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator are signaling bearish conditions, implying a significant likelihood of a downward correction.

At present, the immediate support is provided by the 61.8% retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average, situated at 4475. Should the price undergo a bearish breach beneath this level, the next potential support lies around 4435.

Conversely, an optimistic scenario entails a breakout above the 4530 resistance level, which could pave the way for the S&P 500 index to target the resistance levels at 4560 or 4600.

For traders, vigilant monitoring of the 4500 level is imperative. This juncture presents a prospective selling opportunity in the event of a bearish breakdown, while a sustained support might indicate a favorable buying opportunity.

S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 4498

Take Profit – 4575

Stop Loss – 4457

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.88

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$770/ -$410

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$77/ -$41

Daily Price Outlook

Yesterday, the S&P 500 index remained relatively stable at 4566, with a small decrease of -0.02%. This followed the expected quarter percentage point hike in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, which led to a year-to-date high.

The Fed's post-meeting statement showed a bias for "additional policy firming," but Fed Chair Powell's remarks during the press conference seemed more cautious, emphasizing a data-dependent and patient approach for future rate decisions. This approach has raised market optimism that US interest rates may have peaked, which has improved risk appetite. 

There are several reasons for market optimism, including positive earnings season, strong global growth, and potential for additional stimulus in China. However, several factors present risks, such as extreme optimism, overbought conditions, overcrowded positioning, and seasonal headwinds. 

Yesterday, US equities had mixed results, with the S&P 500 showing little change after the Fed's rate hike to combat inflation. The performance of S&P 500 stocks was mixed as well, resulting in its value remaining relatively stable.

Some gainers included Alphabet (GOOGL), which saw a 5% increase due to better-than-expected revenue from Google ad sales, Union Pacific (UNP), which surged 10% following the announcement of a new CEO, and Boeing (BA), which performed well with shares rising 8% after reporting lower-than-expected quarterly loss and increased plane deliveries. 

On the other hand, some notable losers included Texas Instruments (TXN), which experienced a 5% drop in shares due to a slowdown in demand impacting profit and sales estimates, and Microsoft (MSFT), whose shares fell 3% after its third-quarter guidance missed estimates, largely attributed to a slowdown in its Azure cloud and Windows PC businesses.

Additionally, CoStar Group (CSGP) and Allegion Plc (ALLE) both faced declines of 8% and 7%, respectively, as CoStar cut its full-year revenue guidance, and Allegion Plc lowered its full-year sales forecast, both citing factors affecting demand in their respective industries. The mixed performance across these stocks contributed to the overall stability of the S&P 500 index, keeping its value relatively unchanged.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

On the technical front, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a significant bearish candle on the three-day timeframe, commonly referred to as a "bearish engulfing" candlestick pattern. This candle has fully engulfed all the previous trading activity on July 24th, indicating a strong bearish sentiment among investors as the S&P 500 index closed in the red.

Furthermore, the index has broken below another important trend line that was providing support around the 4555 level. The closing of candles below this trend line suggests a high likelihood of a continued downtrend for the S&P 500 index.

On the downside, there is potential support around the 4530 level, and a substantial breach of this level could lead the SPX price to its next support level at 4500. Further continuation of the downtrend could bring the S&P 500 index down to the 4490 level.

Conversely, if the S&P 500 manages to hold above the 4530 level, it may find the potential to reach the next resistance level at 4560, and further strength could lead to resistance around 4580. Careful monitoring of these support and resistance levels will be crucial for traders as they navigate the current market conditions.

Daily Price Outlook

On the technical front, the S&P 500 index has exhibited a significant bearish candle on the three-day timeframe, commonly referred to as a "bearish engulfing" candlestick pattern. This candle has fully engulfed all the previous trading activity on July 24th, indicating a strong bearish sentiment among investors as the S&P 500 index closed in the red.

Furthermore, the index has broken below another important trend line that was providing support around the 4555 level. The closing of candles below this trend line suggests a high likelihood of a continued downtrend for the S&P 500 index.

On the downside, there is potential support around the 4530 level, and a substantial breach of this level could lead the SPX price to its next support level at 4500. Further continuation of the downtrend could bring the S&P 500 index down to the 4490 level.

Conversely, if the S&P 500 manages to hold above the 4530 level, it may find the potential to reach the next resistance level at 4560, and further strength could lead to resistance around 4580. Careful monitoring of these support and resistance levels will be crucial for traders as they navigate the current market conditions.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 4528.02

Take Profit – 4558.84

Stop Loss – 4509.98

Risk to Reward – 1: 1.7

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$308/ -$180

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$30/ -$18

Daily Price Outlook

Analyzing the technical aspect of the S&P 500, its current trading position revolves around the 4535 support level. This support is further reinforced by the 23.6% replacement ratio.

However, it is crucial to note that both the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a high probability of a bearish correction.

Presently, the 23.6% retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average offer immediate support at 4535. If the price experiences a bearish break below this level, it may encounter the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels at 4506 and 4484, respectively.

On the other hand, a bullish scenario involves a breakthrough above the 4580 resistance level, which could pave the way for the S&P 500 index to target the 468 or 466 resistance levels.

As traders, it is essential to closely monitor the 4535 level as it presents a potential selling opportunity in case of a bearish break, while a sustained support could signal a buying opportunity.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Buy Limit 4532

Take Profit – 4625

Stop Loss – 4497

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$930/ -$350

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot = +$93/ -$35

Daily Price Outlook

In the last 24 hours, the S&P 500 index experienced a notable surge of 0.4%, primarily fueled by a rally in energy stocks and overall positive market sentiment. The increase was further supported by better-than-expected quarterly results from major tech companies and anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's imminent decision.

Energy stocks led the gains, with companies like Halliburton, Occidental Petroleum, and Chevron posting notable increases. Chevron's record quarterly production in the Permian Basin contributed to the positive sentiment, as it confirmed improved well performance and projects remaining on track, according to UBS.

Regional banks also saw a rally, boosted by stabilizing deposit data from companies like KeyCorp, Huntington Bancshares, and Citizens Financial Group, which instilled confidence in the financial sector.

Investors are eagerly awaiting earnings reports from tech giants such as Alphabet and Microsoft, scheduled for Tuesday, followed by Meta on Wednesday and Amazon on Thursday. Positive themes in the tech sector, including strength in cloud services, AI monetization, and stabilization in digital advertising, have set an optimistic tone for tech stocks ahead of the earnings season.

The Federal Reserve's two-day meeting commencing on Tuesday has raised expectations of a 0.25% rate hike, which is almost fully priced in. Additionally, Treasury yields have climbed in anticipation of the impending rate hike.

As the earnings season unfolds, a total of 166 S&P 500 companies, including major tech players, are set to report their second-quarter financials. The broader S&P 500 index has displayed a robust rebound over the past nine months, with over $10 trillion reinvested into the equities market.

The upcoming updates from big tech companies have sparked speculations about the potential for AI-driven growth projections to propel the S&P 500 to reach a new record high.

 S&P500 (SPX) Technical analysis

Analyzing the technical aspect of the S&P 500, its current trading position revolves around the 4535 support level. This support is further reinforced by the 23.6% replacement ratio.

However, it is crucial to note that both the relative strength index (RSI) and the moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator indicate overbought conditions, suggesting a high probability of a bearish correction.

Presently, the 23.6% retracement level and the 50-day exponential moving average offer immediate support at 4535. If the price experiences a bearish break below this level, it may encounter the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels at 4506 and 4484, respectively.

On the other hand, a bullish scenario involves a breakthrough above the 4580 resistance level, which could pave the way for the S&P 500 index to target the 468 or 466 resistance levels.

As traders, it is essential to closely monitor the 4535 level as it presents a potential selling opportunity in case of a bearish break, while a sustained support could signal a buying opportunity.

Daily Price Outlook

Taking a look at the technical side of the S&P 500, it is currently trading around the 4535 support level. This particular support divergence is being extended by the 23.6% replacement ratio.

However, upon examining the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator, both of them are showing overbought conditions, suggesting that the chances of a bearish correction remain strong.

At the moment, the 23.6% retracement level, as well as the 50-day exponential moving average, are providing immediate support around 4535. In the event of a bearish break below this level, the SPX price is likely to be exposed to the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels, which are at 4506 and 4484 respectively.

An alternative scenario is a bullish break above the 4580 resistance level, which would likely expose the S&P 500 index towards the 468 or 466 resistance levels.

Therefore, we should monitor the 4535 level closely, as a bearish break below this support could present a selling opportunity. On the other hand, if the support holds, we can also consider a buying opportunity.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Trade Idea

Entry Price – Sell Stop 4524

Take Profit – 4483

Stop Loss – 4563

Risk to Reward – 1: 2

Profit & Loss Per Standard Lot = +$410/ -$390

Profit & Loss Per Micro Lot= +$41/ -$39

Daily Price Outlook

The S&P 500 index experienced a slow movement as investors eagerly awaited crucial events that could shape market sentiment and direction. On Monday, SPX is rising by +0.03% gains at 4536.34, this little change reflects the cautious stance of traders.

The previous week saw a mixed performance among the major indices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average managed to extend its winning streak for ten consecutive days, the longest since 2017, albeit with a mere 2.51-point gain. On the other hand, the S&P 500 closed the week with a modest 0.7% increase, while the Nasdaq Composite recorded a 0.6% decline. These fluctuations indicate a hesitant market sentiment, with investors treading cautiously.

Market experts have been noting a potential shift in investor sentiment towards a more bearish outlook. The profit-taking attitude has been particularly evident among investors who have enjoyed impressive returns from tech and FAANG stocks.

The slow movement in the S&P 500 index can also be attributed to the anticipation surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy decision. The slight improvement in price of index might be due to the ongoing expectations of potential rate hike in the upcoming Fed meeting.

Additionally, the release of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, further contributed to the cautious atmosphere.

Moreover, the ongoing earnings season played a significant role in the index's sluggishness. With a busy week ahead, including financial updates from major companies like Alphabet, Microsoft, and Meta, as well as significant pharmaceutical, industrial, and big oil firms, investors remained on the sidelines, awaiting corporate performance indicators that could influence market trends.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Technical analysis

Taking a look at the technical side of the S&P 500, it is currently trading around the 4535 support level. This particular support divergence is being extended by the 23.6% replacement ratio.

However, upon examining the relative strength index (RSI) and moving average convergence and divergence (MACD) indicator, both of them are showing overbought conditions, suggesting that the chances of a bearish correction remain strong.

At the moment, the 23.6% retracement level, as well as the 50-day exponential moving average, are providing immediate support around 4535. In the event of a bearish break below this level, the SPX price is likely to be exposed to the 38.2% or 50% retracement levels, which are at 4506 and 4484 respectively.

An alternative scenario is a bullish break above the 4580 resistance level, which would likely expose the S&P 500 index towards the 468 or 466 resistance levels.

Therefore, we should monitor the 4535 level closely, as a bearish break below this support could present a selling opportunity. On the other hand, if the support holds, we can also consider a buying opportunity.