Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) managed to stop its downward trend and regained some positive traction around the $1,976 level on Tuesday. However, this positive movement was supported by geopolitical risks and a slight decline in the US dollar. Meanwhile, the uncertainty surrounding the timing of potential Fed rate cuts is providing additional boost to the gold price. Hence, the focus will remain glued to the FOMC policy decision, scheduled to be announced on Wednesday.

Fed Policy Impact on USD, Gold, and Investor Sentiment

It's worth noting that investors are awaiting the Federal Reserve's monetary policy statement, particularly the "dot plot," and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This will impact the US Dollar and play a role in shaping the future of Gold prices.

Despite upbeat US employment figures suggesting delayed interest-rate cuts, a New York Fed survey indicates a decrease in consumer inflation expectations. This has led to hopes that inflation will ease without causing a recession, causing investors to rethink their expectations for a Fed rate cut in March 2024.

However, market participants still anticipate potential rate cuts in early 2024, with a 40% chance in March and almost 75% in May, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. This uncertainty supports Gold prices, with attention now turning to the upcoming US consumer inflation data and the FOMC meeting results.

Geopolitical Tensions and Missile Launch by Houthi Rebels in Yemen Propel Gold's Safe-Haven Appeal

Moreover, a US defense official reported on Tuesday that Houthi rebels in Yemen, backed by Iran, fired a land-based cruise missile. This development is seen as giving a boost to the safe-haven appeal of Gold. Therefore, the ongoing geopolitical tensions further contribute to Gold's safe-haven status, sustaining a modest upward movement in its price throughout the day.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In the recent analysis of the Gold market as of December 12, the asset displays a modest upward trend, with its price currently at $1,986, reflecting a 0.2% increase over the past 24 hours. This subtle yet notable movement points to a potential shift in market sentiment, as observed in the 4-hour chart timeframe. The immediate resistance for Gold is identified at $1,897, a crucial juncture for bulls to overcome to sustain the upward momentum. Further resistance levels are marked at $1,953 and $2,051, each representing significant hurdles for a bullish continuation.

On the support side, the immediate level is observed at $2,105, providing a safety net against any potential bearish reversal. The subsequent support levels at $1,796 and $1,694 will play pivotal roles in underpinning Gold’s value in the event of a downturn. These levels are crucial for traders to monitor, as they will likely influence the asset's short-term trajectory.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 33, indicating that Gold is nearing oversold territory. This suggests a possible inflection point where the market may witness a reversal, especially if this trend persists. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) values, with a MACD line at -2.841 and a signal line at -13.005, hint at a weakening bearish momentum. This could potentially pave the way for a bullish reversal in the near future. Moreover, the current value of the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,991, being below Gold's price, signifies a short-term bearish trend, but also indicates room for an upward correction.

The observed chart patterns, particularly the formation of Doji candles around the $1,976 support level, suggest chances of a bullish correction. This pattern implies that maintaining above this support level could signal the beginning of a bullish reversal for Gold.

In conclusion, the overall trend for Gold appears bullish, especially if it sustains above the critical $1,975 level. Looking forward, the asset is likely to test higher resistance levels, particularly if it remains above this key support.

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Daily Price Outlook

During the Asian session on Monday, the GBP/USD currency pair maintained its upward rally, holding a strong position around 1.2551 level. Despite the ongoing strength of the US dollar, the GBP/USD pair showed strong recovery and gained its lost ground. However, this could be attributed to market expectations that the Bank of England (BoE) is poised to maintain borrowing costs at a 15-year high during its upcoming December meeting scheduled for Thursday. Hence, the probability of the BoE sustaining a 15-year high borrowing cost in December could bolster the GBP/USD pair.

Moving on, traders are now anticipating key events from both the FOMC and BoE meetings scheduled for this week. These impending events have the potential to induce market volatility.

Bank of England's Cautious Stance and Market Impact Ahead of December Meeting

It's worth noting that the Bank of England (BoE) is expected to maintain its borrowing costs at a 15-year high during its December meeting this Thursday. BoE governor Andrew Bailey highlighted last month that it's too early to consider rate cuts. Despite a dip in the Consumer Price Index from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October, Bailey warned against complacency on inflation. Thus, the upcoming decision suggests the BoE's cautious approach, possibly impacting the market.

Investors will be closely monitoring any signals regarding the economic outlook and interest rates, factors that could influence the GBP/USD pair in the financial landscape.

Impact of Strong US Nonfarm Payrolls on GBP/USD Pair and Market Expectations

Furthermore, the US Nonfarm Payrolls outperformed expectations in November, with 199,000 new jobs added, beating October's 150,000 additions. The Unemployment Rate also dropped to 3.7% from 3.9%, while Average Hourly Earnings held steady at a 4.0% year-on-year rate. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently cautioned that it's still too early to confidently say they've controlled inflation.

Powell said they are ready to make policies stricter if necessary. But, because of the good economic signs in the strong Nonfarm Payrolls report, investors think the Fed might delay rate cuts in 2024. This expectation could affect how the market behaves in the next few months.

Therefore, the robust US job report is likely to strengthen the US dollar, potentially influencing the GBP/USD pair as investors reevaluate their expectations for rate cuts.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The British Pound (GBP) has witnessed a slight retreat against the US Dollar (USD), with a 0.10% downtick to the 1.25367 mark, underscoring a cautious sentiment in the market. The currency pair had previously demonstrated resilience, but the current dip suggests a pause in the bullish momentum that characterized the past trading sessions.

GBP/USD now hovers just below the pivot point of $1.2371, with the currency facing immediate resistance at $1.2458. A breach above could see it challenge the subsequent ceilings at $1.2592 and $1.2684. However, the pair is cushioned by support levels at $1.2236, with further downside protection at $1.2102 and $1.1972, which may offer buy-on-dips opportunities.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) lingers at 33, teetering on the edge of oversold territory, which may signal an impending reversal or a consolidation phase. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) hovers at -0.00025, slightly below the signal line at -0.00207, indicating a bearish sentiment that could suggest further pullbacks.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) currently at $1.2556 serves as a key benchmark. The GBP/USD's position below this moving average is indicative of a potential short-term bearish trend, requiring close observation for a confirmed direction.

An upward channel breakout point at $1.2600 was identified, suggesting a shift towards a downtrend. Should the price remain below this key level, it could confirm the bearish outlook.

In conclusion, while the short-term trend for GBP/USD appears bearish below the $1.2565 threshold, the currency pair is at a critical juncture. Market participants may anticipate a test of resistance levels if the Pound gains momentum or a reinforcement of support levels should the current bearish pressure persist.

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Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bullish trend in the US dollar, the EUR/USD currency pair started the new week on a positive note and maintained its position above the 1.0770 level. However, the reason for its upward momentum could be attributed to the announcement of the European Central Bank (ECB) keeping interest rates unchanged until inflation returns to the target level. It should be noted that the market had anticipated the ECB's decision to maintain rates at their current level until inflation meets the target.

On the other hand, the bullish trend of the US Dollar in response to stronger-than-expected US employment data was seen as a key factor that capped further gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Stable German Inflation and ECB Rate Expectations Impacting EUR/USD Outlook

It's important to highlight that the German inflation data, as gauged by the Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), stood at 2.3%, in line with market forecasts. As in result, the European Central Bank (ECB) decided to keep interest rates steady until inflation gets back on track.

Market analysts anticipate the possibility of the ECB implementing interest rate cuts in March 2024. But, the general belief is that the ECB will keep rates as they are until inflation meets the target.

Hence, the prospect of the ECB maintaining interest rates until March 2024 will foster a consistent environment, potentially influencing a stable performance for the EUR/USD pair.

US Labor Market Boosts Sentiment, Eyes on CPI and Central Bank Meetings

Moreover, the US labor market showed improvement in November, surpassing expectations with 199K new jobs, a drop in unemployment from 3.9% to 3.7%, and steady average hourly earnings at 4.0% YoY. This positive data led to a notable rise in Treasury bond yields as investors speculated that the Federal Reserve might postpone rate cuts in 2024.

Therefore, the bullish trend in the US Dollar was seen as a key factor that restrained additional gains in the EUR/USD pair.

Looking ahead, the focus is on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and ECB meetings this week. Before these key events, market watchers will pay attention to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

In the currency markets, the EUR/USD pair has displayed a modest uptick, nudging slightly upward by 0.01% to trade at 1.07628. Despite this fractional increase, the pair's movement suggests a tentativeness among traders, highlighting the market's current cautious sentiment. The pair sits just above a pivotal point at $1.0695, attempting to sustain momentum and breach immediate resistance levels at $1.0791 and potentially challenge further ceilings at $1.0860 and $1.0962.

Underneath the current price, there's a buffer zone extending to supports at $1.0619, $1.0523, and $1.0418, which are ready to act as soft landings should there be a pullback. From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 38, signaling that the pair is neither oversold nor overbought, yet teeters closer to the territory where buyers may find value.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents a microscopic positive value at 0.00022, contrasting with its signal line at -0.00221, suggesting the potential for an upward trend has not yet gained conviction among investors. Concurrently, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0769 serves as a critical juncture; the pair's trading above this level could indicate a short-term bullish trend, while a consistent position below could confirm bearish inclinations.

The technical analysis is further enriched by the observation of an upward channel breakout at 1.0805, signaling a shift towards a downtrend, a pattern that traders will monitor closely for confirmation.

Conclusively, the EUR/USD pair's short-term outlook is delicately balanced, with a lean towards bearishness below the $1.0769 threshold. Market participants are poised for a potential test of upper resistance levels, but not without considering the broader economic context that could influence the currency's path in the coming days.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to stop its downward rally and hit a two-week low on Friday. However, this decline was driven by the release of employment data from the United States, which exceeded expectations. Notably, the highly anticipated US jobs report showed overall strength and indicated a resilient economy.

Consequently, investors adjusted their expectations for a 25 basis points (bps) interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in March 2024. This shift led to an increase in US Treasury bond yields and the US Dollar (USD), exerting downward pressure on the gold price.

Although, the declines in the gold price could be short-lived as the geopolitical risks remain on the table. Meanwhile, traders seem hesitate to place any strong bets ahead of this week's key data and central bank event risks. In the meantime, the US consumer inflation figures are due on Tuesday, which will be followed by the crucial FOMC decision on Wednesday. Moreover, the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) are all set to announce policy updates on Thursday.

Upbeat US Job Data Spurs Treasury Yield Rebound and Dollar Strength

It is worth noting that the 10-year US Treasury yield bounced back from a three-month low. This happened because of positive US job data, boosting the US Dollar and putting pressure on Gold prices.

It should be noted that the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report revealed that the economy added 199,000 new jobs in November, surpassing expectations of 180,000 and exceeding the previous month's 150,000 rise. Meanwhile, the Unemployment Rate also dropped from 3.9% to 3.7%, despite more people entering the job market.

Therefore, this data indicates a strong job market, leading traders to speculate that the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates until May 2024.

Geopolitical Tensions Boost Gold Prices Amidst Middle East Escalation

Furthermore, US troops faced more attacks from Iran-backed militias in Iraq and Syria due to their support for Israel amid the ongoing conflict in Gaza. Meanwhile, the US embassy in Baghdad was shelled after an earlier rocket attack involving 14 rockets, raising concerns about a potential escalation in the Middle East.

Hence, the heightened geopolitical tensions, marked by attacks on US troops and the embassy, increased uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven assets like gold, likely leading to a rise in its price.

Looking forward, traders are now keeping a close eye on this week's US consumer inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate projections. However, the upcoming week is also busy with monetary policy meetings from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the Bank of England (BoE), and the European Central Bank (ECB) scheduled for Thursday.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's market trajectory has recently seen a shift, with prices retracting to a near $1,998 per ounce, indicating a potential easing of the bullish fervor that characterized the previous sessions. The delicate balance of market forces is reflected in the 4-hour chart where the precious metal teeters around a significant threshold, suggesting a state of indecision among traders.

The immediate pivot point stands at $2,000, a psychological barrier that gold prices are struggling to reclaim. Overhead, resistance levels at $2,024.58 and $2,039.12 loom large, signifying potential headwinds that may stall an ascent. Conversely, support levels at $1,967.78 and $1,944.67 present a foundation that could arrest any further decline.

Within this technical framework, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) presents a neutral reading at 50, indicating a market equilibrium where buyer and seller momentum are in a standoff. Compounding this is the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) which, residing at -3.133, signals a bearish divergence as it trails below the signal line at -8.030, hinting at possible downward price action ahead.

The market's sentiment hinges on the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $2,024.58, which currently acts as a ceiling capping gold's upward movement. A persistent trade below this average could potentially confirm a shift towards a bearish trend.

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The global market sentiment has recently shifted towards a positive trajectory following a brief downturn. However, this upswing can be attributed to gains in the technology sector and heightened anticipation surrounding the upcoming jobs report, which is poised to significantly influence market expectations in the near future.

It is worth noting that the S&P 500 rose by 0.80% to 4,585.59, and the Dow added 62.95 points, or 0.17%, reaching 36,117.38. The Nasdaq Composite led the way with a 1.37% gain, closing at 14,339.99, driven by a robust performance from technology stocks. Throughout the week, the Nasdaq has consistently outperformed, posting a 0.2% gain, while the Dow and S&P 500 are expected to conclude the week slightly lower by around 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

Market Concerns Amidst Mixed Job Market Data

However, this upward momentum follows concerns about a potential slowdown in the late 2023 rally, as the Dow and S&P 500 experienced their first three-day negative streaks since October. Investor attention this week has been centered on the job market amid mixed data releases. Thursday's weekly jobless claims, which came in below economist expectations, and a decline in continuing jobless claims provided some relief.

Private payrolls data released on Wednesday showed fewer job additions than anticipated, and October's job openings reached their lowest point since March 2021. The anticipation for Friday's official jobs report has intensified, with economists expecting the addition of 190,000 jobs in November. Investors are closely monitoring for signs of a slowing labor market, which would align with the Federal Reserve's decision to pause interest rate hikes.

Therefore, the disappointing job data and low job openings in October, combined with the heightened anticipation for the official jobs report, are impacting global market sentiment as investors closely watch for signs of a potential slowdown in the labor market, aligning with the Federal Reserve's cautious approach on interest rate hikes.

 S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 remains a barometer for investor sentiment and economic expectations. On December 8th, the index exhibited a minor uptick in value, nudging up by a mere 0.05% to anchor at 4585.58. The market’s subtle shift in momentum is reflected in the chart's resistance levels, which lie at $4606 and extend upwards to $4694, with the ultimate test being the $4765 mark.

The index’s pivot point, the threshold between bullish and bearish sentiment, stands firm at $4585. Key support levels are drawn at $4491, $4425, and the more distant $4351, ready to offer a safety net should the index falter.

Technical indicators provide mixed signals. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 65, indicating a market that is neither overextended nor retreating, suggesting a potential for further gains without immediate concern for a reversal.

Importantly, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), not specified but typically a gauge for trend direction, could further inform the short-term market trajectory.

Market patterns reveal a range-bound behavior, with a clear resistance ceiling in sight. The implication here is that the S&P 500 is testing the waters, potentially gearing up for a decisive movement that could set the tone for the year-end market performance.

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Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to halt its downward trend and lingered below the 1.0800 mark. Despite this, the Eurozone's prospects remain gloomy, and the markets anticipate the European Central Bank (ECB) to initiate interest rate cuts earlier than previously thought. The first move is now expected as soon as March 2024, putting pressure on the Euro (EUR).

Eurozone Economic Slowdown and ECB Rate Cut Speculations

It's worth noting that the Eurozone economy unexpectedly slowed in Q3 2023. The Gross Domestic Product (GDP) reported 0% YoY, worse than the expected 0.1%. On a quarterly basis, the growth contracted by 0.1%, meeting market forecasts. Last month, ECB board member Isabel Schnabel suggested rate hikes if inflation didn't hit the 2% target quickly. However, she shifted her stance after three low inflation readings. Now, markets are strongly betting on the ECB cutting interest rates earlier than expected, possibly as soon as March 2024. This shift is influenced by the recent economic slowdown and concerns about inflation staying below the target.

Therefore, the unexpected Eurozone economic slowdown and the probability of earlier ECB rate cuts have pressured the Euro. This has led to a decline in the EUR/USD pair as markets react to concerns about economic performance and monetary policy divergence.

US Labor Data and Employment Outlook

On the other side, data from the US Labor Department on Thursday showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits increased to 220K for the week ending December 1, slightly below the expected 222K. However, the ongoing unemployment claims dropped to 1.861 million from 1.925 million, beating the expected 1.919 million.

Therefore, the mixed US labor data may weaken the USD, providing a potential boost to the EUR/USD pair amid economic uncertainty.

Looking Ahead: Market Focus on US Employment Report

Looking ahead, investors are keeping a close eyes on the upcoming US employment report on Friday. Key indicators include Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP), Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings, and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

In the current trading climate, the EUR/USD pair is showcasing a cautious stance, with a marginal downtick of 0.01%, stabilizing around the 1.07909 mark. This slight retraction reflects the pair's uncertainty ahead of key economic indicators that may sway the European currency’s valuation. The forex market, sensitive to such economic tides, is waiting for substantial triggers to define a clear direction.

The pair’s technical landscape is defined by a pivot point at $1.0727, which acts as a fulcrum for the currency's potential swings. Resistance levels are staged at $1.0801, $1.0910, and $1.0991, each representing a hurdle that could cap upward advances. Conversely, support levels at $1.0618, $1.0509, and $1.0397 provide a cushion against any downward pressures.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reads at 41, suggesting a lack of momentum in either direction, while the MACD’s slight positive divergence from its signal line may indicate an undercurrent of bullish sentiment. However, the current price hovers around the 50 EMA of $1.0791, depicting a market in equilibrium without a distinct bullish or bearish bias.

The technical setup hints at an upward channel breakout, which could signal a shift in momentum should the pair consolidate above the crucial $1.07924 level.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) extended their three-day winning streak, staying strong above the $2,031 level. However, the upward movement is driven by the anticipation that interest rates in the United States (US) have reached their peak. Therefore, bullish investors are holding off thier bets, anticipating the release of the highly anticipated US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report.

Investors are looking for signs of a weakened labor market, which could increase the probability of a Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cut as soon as March 2024. This potential shift in monetary policy would boost the appeal of the non-yielding gold.

Gold Prices Surge on Market Confidence in Fed Rate Cut Amid Job Market Concerns

It's important to highlight that the belief that the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates further and might even lower them in 2024 is boosting the price of gold. Recent job market reports, like the JOLTS Job Openings and ADP, suggest a slowdown, supporting the idea of a more dovish stance by Fed.

It should be noted that traders are indicating a 60% chance of a rate cut by March 2024. However, the US Dollar is getting stronger because of a slight increase in the 10-year government bond yield, which is holding back gold's gains.

Therefore, the belief in a dovish Fed and a potential rate cut in 2024 boosts gold prices. Despite a stronger US Dollar, if the upcoming jobs report disappoints, the Fed's dovish stance could further benefit gold amid economic uncertainties.

Gold Faces Uncertainty as Improved Market Sentiment and Upcoming Job Data Impact Safe-Haven Appeal

Furthermore, the situation in the Middle East hasn't worsened, and a positive trend in US stock markets overnight is dampening the appeal of the safe-haven gold (XAU/USD). Traders are now eyeing the upcoming US job data to gauge labor market conditions and get hints on when the Fed might ease its policies.

Moreover, the robust surge in US stocks is putting pressure on gold. Despite anticipated changes in Fed policy and worries about China's economic state and global tensions, gold prices aren't dropping significantly.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

As of December 8th, Gold (XAU/USD) is witnessing a marginal upswing, with its current trading value standing at $2031, marking a slight 0.12% increase. This recent activity in gold prices is indicative of the market’s ongoing struggle to find a consistent direction, oscillating around a key pivot point of $1,976.

The immediate resistance levels are poised at $2,023, followed by $2,049, and a significant barrier at $2,099, marking potential ceilings for any upward movements. Conversely, the supports are established at lower thresholds of $1,949, $1,923, and $1,897, which may provide a cushion against bearish trends.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at a neutral 48, suggesting a market that is neither overbought nor oversold, reflecting an equilibrium between buying and selling pressures. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a reading of 1, crossing above its signal line at -1.60, which could be interpreted as a potential signal for emerging upward momentum.

However, a notable technical observation is the formation of a double-top pattern, with an extending resistance at around $2,035. This pattern indicates that a closing below this level could potentially trigger a selling pressure, tilting the balance toward a bearish trend.

Given these technical indicators, the overall trend for gold appears to be bearish below the $2,035 mark. The short-term forecast suggests that the asset may test lower support levels in the coming days, especially if the resistance at $2,035 holds firm. Investors and traders should closely monitor these levels, as a breakout above or below these points could significantly influence the market’s trajectory.

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Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the USD/JPY currency pair failed to stop its downtrend, losing further ground as the Japanese Yen (JPY) gained aggressive bids on Thursday. It surged to a three-month high against the US Dollar amidst growing expectations of a shift in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy stance.

BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda discussed monetary policy, mentioning considerations for wage hikes during a meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. This has led to speculation that the BoJ might think about moving away from its long-standing monetary stimulus, given the prospect of significant wage increases for the second year in a row.

Fed Rate Hike Expectations, Job Market Concerns, and Data Ahead

Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen is gaining strength as stock markets weaken, thanks to its safe-haven reputation. Furthermore, the broad-based US dollar is losing ground, bringing the USD/JPY pair to its lowest level since September, dropping below 146.00. Traders are watching the US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data for potential market impact later in the North American session.

It's worth noting that many expected the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates in 2024 as concerns about a slowing economy are rising as signs of a loosening US job market emerge. The US Labor Department reported a 617K decline in job openings to 8.73 million in October, the lowest in two-and-a-half years.

The ADP report revealed a modest 103K job addition in November, reinforcing expectations of a Federal Reserve policy shift and a possible 25 basis points rate cut in March.

Potential Impact on USD/JPY Pair Amidst Gaza Conflict and China Economic Concerns

Moreover, Israeli forces intensified ground operations in southern Gaza, escalating combat against Hamas militants and worsening the humanitarian crisis. Meanwhile, China's mixed Trade Balance data for November revealed an unexpected 0.6% decline in imports, sparking concerns about weak domestic demand amid recession risks.

Therefore, the intensified conflict in Gaza and concerns about China's economic slowdown may lead to increased safe-haven demand for the Japanese Yen, potentially strengthening it against the US Dollar.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

As of December 7, the USD/JPY pair has witnessed a downward shift, decreasing by 0.38% to 146.712. The currency pair, within the context of a fluctuating forex market, is currently grappling with key technical levels that will determine its short-term trajectory. It navigates around a pivotal point at 144.72, with immediate resistance placed at 145.75. Subsequent resistance levels are seen at 147.75 and 148.84, posing potential hurdles to upward movements. On the downside, immediate support is established at 142.71, followed by stronger support levels at 140.82 and 138.76.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for USD/JPY is at 41, indicating a bearish sentiment as it remains below the neutral mark of 50. This suggests the pair is not in an overbought state, leaving scope for potential directional changes. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a slight positive value of 0.02 against a signal line of -0.14, hinting at a subdued bullish momentum.

Notably, the pair is trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 147.06, further underscoring the bearish bias. The observed downward trendline, extending resistance at 147.350, suggests a continuation of this trend. This pattern indicates that the pair could maintain its bearish stance unless it breaches the 147.350 level.

In conclusion, the technical analysis of the USD/JPY pair points to a bearish trend below the 147.350 mark in the short term. The pair's movements will likely be influenced by a combination of technical indicators, chart patterns, and broader market sentiment, focusing on resistance testing if there is a shift in market dynamics.

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Daily Price Outlook

The AUD/USD currency pair failed to stop its declining streak and remained under some selling pressure near 0.6530 for the fourth successive day on Thursday. However, the reason for its downward trend could be associated with China’s economic woes and RBA rate cut bets, which weigh on the Aussie and contribute to the losses in the AUD/USD pair. In contrast to this, the dovish Fed expectations might cap any further gains in the US dollar and lend some support to the AUD/USD currency pair.

China's Trade Shifts, Moody's Downgrade, and RBA Rate Cut Outlook Affect Australian Dollar (AUD)

It's worth noting that China's trade surplus surged to $68.39 billion in November, up from the previous $56.53 billion. The report revealed a surprising 0.5% increase in exports but, worryingly, a significant 0.6% drop in imports, signaling concerns about weak domestic demand. In the meantime, Moody's downgraded China's credit outlook, affecting state-owned firms and banks, and dampening investor interest in riskier assets.

On top of this, Australia's trade data was not impressive, and growing expectations of a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut around August/September 2024 are weighing on the Australian Dollar and contributing to the AUDUSD currency pair.

USD Strength, Cautious Sentiment, and Fed Expectations Impacting AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, the risk-off market mood is helping the safe-haven US Dollar to maintain its recent strength, reaching a two-week peak on Wednesday. This is putting some pressure on the AUD/USD pair. However, expectations of a more dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed) are capping further USD gains and providing a support to the Aussie.

Investors believe the Fed won't tighten its policies further and are now leaning towards a 25 bps rate cut in the upcoming March meeting. This shift is backed by recent US data hinting at a potential easing in the historically tight job market.

Looking ahead, investors will be closely monitoring the release of the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims data from the US. Furthermore, attention will be on the highly anticipated US monthly employment details, commonly referred to as the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, scheduled for Friday.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

On December 7, the Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) experienced a decline, registering a 0.27% decrease to 0.65321. The currency pair, in the broader scope of the Forex market, is situated at a crucial juncture, hovering around the pivot point of $0.6530. The AUD/USD faces immediate resistance at $0.6602, followed by higher barriers at $0.6639 and $0.6713. Conversely, immediate support is established at $0.6493, with additional support levels at $0.6456 and $0.6419, potentially providing stability against further declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the pair stands at 34, indicating a bearish sentiment as it resides below the neutral 50 mark. This suggests that the pair is neither in the overbought nor oversold territory, leaving room for potential directional changes. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is marginally negative at -0.00056 compared to its signal line at -0.00185, hinting at a subdued bearish momentum.

Notably, the AUD/USD is trading just below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $0.6562, further underscoring the current bearish inclination. The observed upward channel breakout and the closing of candles below the 0.6550 level suggest selling pressure in the market. This technical pattern indicates a potential continuation of the bearish trend, provided the pair remains below the crucial 0.6550 threshold.

In conclusion, the AUD/USD pair exhibits a bearish bias in the short term, predominantly influenced by technical indicators and chart patterns. The currency pair's movements are likely to be contingent on the broader market sentiment and economic data releases, with a focus on resistance testing if there's a shift in market dynamics.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) maintained its upward trend and remained well bid around $2,030 marks. However, this upward trend can be attributed to a risk-off market sentiment, which typically bolsters the appeal of safe-haven assets such as gold. Another important factor contributing to the positive momentum in gold prices is the anticipation that the Federal Reserve has ended its cycle of interest rate hikes.

Besides this, the recent dovish statements from European Central Bank (ECB) officials, coupled with decisions by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep interest rates unchanged, further enhance the attractiveness of gold.

In contrast to this, the latest positive reversal in the US dollar price was seen as one of the key factors that cap further gains in the gold price. Notably, the weakening JOLTS Job Openings data from the United States on Tuesday, coupled with the softer ADP report on Wednesday, serves as evidence that the US job market is showing signs of a slowdown. This in turn, heightened concerns about an economic downturn in the world's largest economy. Consequently, this economic uncertainty is seen as providing additional support to the safe-haven appeal of gold.

Factors Influencing Gold Prices Amidst Weaker US Employment Data and Rate Cut Speculations

It's worth noting that weaker US employment data released this week suggests the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates. This is good news for gold prices. The Labor Department's report on job openings hit a 2.5-year low, indicating lower demand due to interest rates. The ADP report also signals a cooling job market, with private payrolls rising by 103K in November.

Market predictions hint at a two-in-three chance of a rate cut by March, lowering US bond yields and supporting XAU/USD. Despite the US Dollar's recent gains, traders are cautious ahead of the crucial US NFP report, which will impact the Fed's policy outlook. The upcoming US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims are also in focus.

Economic Concerns and Geopolitical Tensions Drive Gold Price Surge

Furthermore, China's Trade Balance data revealed a surprising 0.6% drop in imports for November, raising concerns about weak domestic demand and recession risks. Meanwhile, Israel escalated its ground offensive against Hamas in the Gaza Strip's south and intensified strikes near Khan Younis. These developments could boost the price of gold as investors seek safe-haven assets amid increased geopolitical tensions.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

As of December 7, Gold exhibits a subtle yet noticeable upward movement, marking a 0.05% increase to $2026. Analyzing the 4-hour chart timeframe, the precious metal is currently trading around a critical pivot point of $2,034. The immediate resistance is identified at $2,052, with further resistance levels at $2,073 and $2,091, each representing potential barriers to Gold's ascent. On the flip side, the metal finds immediate support at $2,009, followed by subsequent levels at $1,989 and $1,967, which could provide a safety net against any downward pressure.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 58, indicating a bullish sentiment without venturing into overbought territory. This suggests a continued interest among buyers, but with caution, as the market has not reached an overly enthusiastic state. The price of Gold is also trading above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2,028, reinforcing the short-term bullish trend. However, the upward trendline breakout suggests a selling pressure below the $2028 mark, which traders should closely monitor.

The observed chart patterns and technical indicators collectively point to a cautiously optimistic outlook for Gold. The asset remains bullish above the $2010 threshold, suggesting that if it maintains its stance above this level, we may witness further tests of the resistance levels. This technical analysis is supported by broader market sentiments and economic indicators, which continue to play a significant role in influencing Gold's trajectory.

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