Daily Price Outlook

Despite the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and ongoing selling pressure on the USD, the price of Gold (XAU/USD) struggled to maintain its upward momentum, fluctuating within a narrow trading range below the $2,040 level during Thursday's Asian session. However, the decline in Gold prices can be attributed to the resurgence of US bond yields and a positive risk sentiment, which were key factors contributing to the downward trend.

It should be noted that the previously released upbeat US macro data raised doubts over the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Fed at its March meeting. This has led to a slight rebound in US Treasury bond yields, which, along with the risk-on environment, is seen capping the upside for the safe-haven Gold price.

The global risk sentiment received a boost after the Federal Reserve hinted at the end of its tightening monetary policy. Meanwhile, the upbeat economic data from China on Friday is supporting global stock markets, making investors hesitant to make big moves with gold (XAU/USD).

Mixed Signals Impact Gold Prices Amidst Positive US Economic Data

It's worth noting that positive US economic data on Thursday is making people doubt that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon. This gives a break to US Treasury bond yields and puts pressure on the price of Gold, especially with a positive market mood.

The US Commerce Department shared that Retail Sales in November increased by 0.3%, beating expectations after a revised down 0.2% drop in the previous month. Core Retail Sales, excluding cars, also did better than expected, going up by 0.2%. In the meantime, the Labor Department reported that first-time unemployment claims fell to 202K, the lowest since mid-October.

Despite this, there is still a 60% chance that the Fed might cut rates in March, and the market is 90% sure of a cut in May. The US Dollar is on a four-day decline, reaching a four-month low, which is supporting the price of Gold. Looking ahead, the release of global PMI prints might influence the precious metal, providing opportunities for traders on the last day of the week.

Therefore, the expectation of a potential rate cut in March, coupled with the weakening US Dollar and the Federal Reserve's dovish stance, is bolstering the Gold market. The upcoming release of global PMI data could further influence Gold prices, creating short-term trading opportunities by the week's end.

Positive Chinese Economic Data Dampens Gold Outlook

Furthermore, the positive Chinese economic data is supporting global stock markets and keeping investors cautious about making new bets on XAU/USD. The data revealed a 10.1% year-on-year increase in Retail Sales for November, surpassing the previous 7.6%. Industrial Production also rose by 6.6% YoY, compared to the prior month's 4.6% rise. The National Bureau of Statistics highlighted that the ongoing recovery in demand is aiding improvements in consumer prices, ruling out deflation in China.

Therefore, the upbeat Chinese economic data, with a strong increase in Retail Sales and Industrial Production, supports global stock markets, making investors cautious about Gold. The positive sentiment could weigh on Gold prices as demand for safe-haven assets diminishes.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In the intricate tapestry of the financial markets, Gold (XAU/USD) presents a nuanced picture on December 15. The precious metal shows a slight increase of 0.02%, reaching $2,036, hovering around critical technical levels. With a pivot point established at $1,897, Gold finds itself at a crossroads between potential resistance and support levels that could dictate its short-term trajectory.

The immediate resistance is set at $1,953, followed by more formidable barriers at $2,049 and $2,105. Conversely, support levels are identified at $1,799, $1,695, and $1,599, which may offer a cushion against potential downturns. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 66, signaling a bullish sentiment that is not yet in the overbought territory. The MACD, at 5.231, trails its signal line at 8.80, indicating a potential slowdown in upward momentum.

Gold's price hovers above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $2,028, underlining a short-term bullish trend. However, the formation of a triple top pattern around the $2,036 mark suggests a formidable resistance. A breakout above this level could pave the way for further ascents, while failure to breach could lead to a reversal.

The overall trend for Gold appears to be bearish below the $2,036 threshold. In the short term, the market is likely to test the resistance levels in the coming days, keeping investors and traders alert to the possibility of both bullish continuations and bearish reversals.

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During the early European session on Friday, the EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend, gaining additional momentum near the 1.1000 mark. However, the reason for this upward rally can be attributed to the fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) kept interest rates unchanged on Thursday. In response to the ECB's decision, the Euro (EUR) attracted buyers, lifting the EUR/USD currency pair.

Meanwhile, the Greenback experienced downward pressure following dovish remarks from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, along with projections from Fed officials indicating three anticipated rate cuts in the coming year. This was seen as another crucial factor contributing to the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

ECB Maintains Steady Interest Rates, Providing Stability to EUR/USD Pair Amid Economic Uncertainties

It's worth noting that the European Central Bank (ECB) chose to keep interest rates steady, as many predicted. This includes the main refinancing operations at 4.50%, the marginal lending facility at 4.75%, and the deposit facility at 4.00%, in line with expectations.

Despite expectations for rate cuts due to lower inflation and price pressure, the central bank is standing firm on maintaining record-high borrowing costs. This move by the central bank is aimed at maintaining stability in the face of economic uncertainties.

Therefore, the ECB's decision to keep key interest rates unchanged, contrary to expectations of cuts, has stabilized the EUR/USD pair. The Euro gained support, reflecting the central bank's commitment to maintaining record-high borrowing costs despite economic uncertainties.

US Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance and Economic Data Impact: EUR/USD Pair Gains Momentum

Moreover, the US Federal Reserve chose to keep its benchmark fed funds rate range unchanged at 5.25%–5.50% on Wednesday. Despite this, the Greenback faced downward pressure after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell made dovish remarks, and Fed officials projected three rate cuts in the coming year.

On Thursday, US Retail Sales exceeded market expectations, growing 0.3% in November, rebounding from a 0.2% decline in the previous reading. Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending December 9 were 202,000, beating the market consensus of 220,000.

However, the positive US data failed to boost the Greenback. Investors, still processing the Fed's monetary policy meeting outcome and the anticipation of future rate cuts, kept the currency under pressure across the board.

Therefore, the EUR/USD pair experienced upward momentum as the US Federal Reserve's dovish tone and projections of future rate cuts weakened the Greenback, despite positive US economic data failing to provide support.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

In the ever-evolving forex market, the EUR/USD pair on December 15 presents a scenario of cautious optimism. Trading at 1.09980, the pair sees a modest increase of 0.07%, reflecting a tempered bullish sentiment. The pair’s technical posture is anchored around a pivot point of $1.0866, with its trajectory shaped by a series of key price levels.

Immediate resistance is encountered at $1.0962, followed by higher ceilings at $1.1035 and $1.1104. On the downside, supports are formed at $1.0797, $1.0693, and $1.0624, crucial for maintaining the pair's stability. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 77 signals an overbought condition, suggesting the pair might be approaching a potential reversal point. The MACD, with a value of 0.00198 below its signal line of 0.01, indicates a weakening of the current bullish trend.

The pair's positioning above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1.0943 further underlines its short-term bullish trend. However, a double-top pattern near the $1.1008 mark poses a significant resistance, potentially limiting further gains. A successful breach of this level could indicate a stronger bullish momentum, while failure to do so may result in a pullback.

Overall, the EUR/USD pair exhibits a bullish trend, contingent upon a breakout above the $1.1000 mark. The short-term forecast anticipates a testing of these resistance levels, with market participants closely watching for a possible upward trajectory or a shift in trend.

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The USD/JPY pair bounced back from its recent low near 141.00 as the Japanese Yen trimmed some of its gains against the US Dollar. However, this recovery was mainly influenced by a positive market sentiment driven by the Federal Reserve's dovish stance and expectations of additional stimulus from China. Furthermore, there is a growing belief that the Bank of Japan (BoJ) might end its negative interest rate policy sooner than expected, contributing to the Yen's support and may limit gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Positive Market Mood and the USD/JPY Pair's Resurgence

As we mentioned above that the major factor influencing the USD/JPY pair is the positive market mood, thanks to the Federal Reserve's more relaxed approach. It should be noted that Fed recently decided to stop raising interest rates by the end of December and hinted at possible rate cuts in 2024. This move has caused a drop in US Treasury bond yields.

Consequently, the interest rate difference between the US and Japan has decreased, making it tougher for the Japanese Yen to gain strength. This shift in dynamics is helping the USD/JPY pair's comeback.

Moreover, optimism about extra support from China is boosting the positive market sentiment, making the Japanese Yen less attractive as a safe-haven and contributing the gains in the USD/JPY pair.

Factors Affecting the Japanese Yen and USD/JPY Pair

Another factor influencing the strength of the Japanese Yen is speculation regarding the actions of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). There is considerable discussion about the potential for the BoJ to discontinue negative interest rates sooner than anticipated, possibly even before the outcomes of crucial employment negotiations at major corporations are known. This potential shift in policy is contributing to the appreciation of the Japanese Yen.

Economically, Japan's Machinery Orders data, which is a key indicator of capital spending, surpassed expectations by increasing by 0.7% in October. On the political front, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet reshuffle amid a financial investigation highlights the challenges in Japan's political landscape.

Therefore, the speculation about the Bank of Japan's policy shift and positive economic data boost the Japanese Yen, likely causing a decline in the USD/JPY currency pair. Political challenges add to the mix, influencing exchange rates.

Looking ahead, traders are watching for monetary policy updates from major central banks in Europe, which could offer short-term opportunities. Furthermore, the upcoming US monthly Retail Sales data, expected to decline for the second successive month by 0.1% in November, will likely influence the USD/JPY pair's trajectory.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair experienced a downward movement of 0.74%, settling at around 141.767. This decline marks a notable shift from recent sessions, with the pair now grappling with the pivotal 138.90 level, which stands as a significant pivot point in the current price dynamics. The chart suggests immediate resistance forming at 141.93, with subsequent barriers at 144.79 and 147.82. On the downside, the pair finds immediate support at 138.81, with further cushions at 135.86 and 133.19, which could be tested should the bearish trend continue.

Technical indicators display a bearish overtone, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) deeply entrenched in oversold territory at 22, signaling potential exhaustion in selling pressure and the possibility of a reversal if market conditions permit. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) stands at -0.373 with a signal line of -0.719, suggesting that downward momentum is waning, offering a glimmer of optimism for bulls in the market.

The pair's trading below the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 143.89 reinforces the short-term bearish trend. However, chart patterns and RSI levels warrant attention for signs of a potential correction or continuation of the trend.

While the USD/JPY pair shows a bearish trend in the short term, the oversold RSI indicates that a reversal could be imminent. Should the pair manage to recapture the 141 level, it could set the stage for a retest of the immediate resistance at 141.93. Investors will closely monitor the pair for signs of stabilization or further decline, as the currency navigates through key technical junctures in the days ahead.

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The AUD/USD currency pair has maintained its bullish momentum, surging to four-month highs as the US Dollar weakens in response to a dovish outlook from the Federal Reserve (Fed). The pair has shown a robust performance against the US Dollar, reaching its highest levels in four months. This upward trend has continued for two consecutive days, driven by favorable employment data from Australia and a depreciation of the US Dollar.

Federal Reserve's Dovish Stance and Rate Outlook Propel Australian Dollar Against US Dollar

It is noteworthy that the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates steady at 5.5% and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's dovish stance have been key drivers behind the surge in the Australian Dollar. Powell abstained from declaring victory over inflation and hinted at a more accommodative monetary policy. This move led to a decrease in Treasury bond yields. As a result, investors are currently anticipating three rate cuts in 2024, further contributing to the weakening of the US Dollar.

Therefore, the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates and Chair Powell's dovish stance boosted the Australian Dollar against the US Dollar, with decreased Treasury yields and anticipated rate cuts in 2024, contributing to USD weakness.

Robust Australian Economic Indicators Drive Positive Outlook for AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, Australia's economic indicators significantly bolstered the Australian Dollar. Consumer Inflation Expectations for December eased to 4.5%, below the prior 4.9%, alleviating some inflation concerns. Although Employment Change data for November surpassed expectations, surging to 61.5K against the projected 11.0K, the Unemployment Rate in Australia increased to 3.9% from the previous 3.7%.

The Australian Dollar's upward trajectory was further supported by positive market sentiment and consumer confidence. ANZ-Roy Morgan's Australian Consumer Confidence weekly survey rose to 80.8 from the previous week's 76.4, while Westpac Consumer Confidence for December showed improvement at 2.7% from the previous decline of 2.6%. These indicators reflect a positive outlook for the Australian economy.

Hence, Australia's strong economic indicators, including lower inflation expectations, robust employment growth, and improved consumer confidence, propelled the Australian Dollar. This positive outlook contributes to the upward momentum of the AUD/USD pair.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar (AUD/USD) presents a bullish narrative as it rides within an upward channel, signifying a robust buying trend. The currency pair is currently supported by the formation of bullish engulfing candles over the $0.6590 mark, indicating a strong uptrend momentum and suggesting an accumulation phase among traders.

A pivotal moment is on the horizon for AUD/USD, as it approaches the critical $0.6690 level. Should it break above this threshold, it could potentially signal a double top breakout, opening a path towards the $0.6750 level or further resistance levels. Such a breakout would confirm the continuation of the current bullish trend, providing traders with significant optimism regarding the pair's trajectory.

The upward channel's support, coupled with the bullish engulfing pattern, underpins a firm uptrend in AUD/USD. Observing the currency pair's ability to sustain above these levels will be critical for traders monitoring for continuation or potential reversals.

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Gold (XAU/USD) has maintained its upward momentum, holding firm around the $1,973 level. However, this upward trend is attributed to a weakening US dollar, providing strong support to the precious metal. Concurrently, a ongoing risk-on sentiment acts as a significant headwind for the safe-haven asset. The Federal Reserve's dovish shift, coupled with geopolitical risks and apprehensions about an economic slowdown in China, contribute to a favorable environment for bullish traders, enhancing the prospects for further appreciation in the commodity.

Recent Developments in Financial Markets and Central Bank Policies

It's worth noting that the Federal Reserve recently signaled a pause in raising interest rates, suggesting three potential rate cuts in 2024. This move, coupled with expectations of inflation nearing the Fed's 2% target without a recession, caused a significant drop in US Treasury bond yields.

Consequently, the US Dollar faced heavy selling, providing ongoing support for the non-yielding Gold price.

The Fed chose to keep interest rates steady for the third consecutive meeting, adopting a more cautious stance. They expect inflation to approach the 2% target without a recession, with the fed funds rate peaking at 4.6% in 2024, down from the previous estimate of 5.1%. Recent data also showed a slowdown in the rise of business prices.

Market expectations now lean towards a 60% chance of a rate cut in March, and the benchmark 10-year US government bond yield hit its lowest since August. While the post-FOMC US Dollar decline supports Gold, a risk-on environment tempers further gains ahead of central bank announcements on Thursday.

Central Bank Policy Announcements and US Retail Sales Data

Furthermore, the Swiss National Bank (SNB), Bank of England (BoE), and European Central Bank (ECB) are set to announce their policy decisions, potentially adding some market excitement. Traders will also be keeping an eye on US Retail Sales data, with estimates suggesting a second consecutive monthly drop of 0.1% in November.

Looking ahead, the monetary policy updates from SNB, BoE, and ECB could shake up the markets and set the tone before the release of US Retail Sales figures. It's a day full of key announcements that could influence trading dynamics.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold, historically a haven for investors in turbulent times, has recently shown a technical resistance formation, characterized by a double top pattern extending at $2,039. This pattern is indicative of a potential pause in the ascent of gold prices, suggesting that the market could be contemplating the next move. The precious metal's price, currently navigating around $2,031.35, reflects a modest intraday gain, yet the metal faces a formidable barrier at this double top threshold.

The previous uptrend line that had been a consistent support for gold prices has been breached, and this line is now acting as a resistance. This shift implies that the path towards $2,040 may be fraught with challenges, as the market retests the newfound resistance. The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), situated at $2,008.69, provides a backdrop for the price action, offering a short-term bullish sentiment as current prices remain above this level.

Technical indicators further reveal the Relative Strength Index (RSI) standing at 67.06, edging towards overbought territory but still reflecting bullish momentum as it remains above the key mid-point of 50.

The overall trend for gold currently exhibits a bullish sentiment, yet the presence of a double top pattern suggests caution as prices approach the $2,039 resistance level. Short-term forecasts indicate that gold will test this resistance, with a decisive breakout or rejection at this level likely to set the tone for future price action. Investors will closely monitor these technical levels to gauge whether gold can sustain its bull run or if a correction is imminent.

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action, it continues to receive support from geopolitical tensions and the anticipated change in Fed policy in 2024. The uncertainty surrounding when the US might decrease interest rates is putting pressure on the dollar, which is favorable for gold. Traders are awaiting the Fed's decision, closely examining their statements and projections.

There is speculation that the Fed might lean towards lowering rates in 2024, potentially leading to a decline in the dollar and a boost for gold. Recent US data, revealing unexpected price increases, adds further uncertainty to the equation. Investors are eagerly awaiting clues from the Fed regarding future interest rates, impacting both the dollar and gold.

China's Supportive Policies and Geopolitical Tensions: Impact on Investor Sentiment

Furthermore, the anticipation of additional support from China's policymakers is outweighing concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East, maintaining a positive sentiment for riskier investments. Reports from China's recent economic conference suggest they're planning adjustments to support recovery in 2024.

Meanwhile, Yemen's Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, are setting rules for navigating the Red Sea due to Israel's embargo, including restrictions near "Occupied Palestinian territories."

Surprisingly, this doesn't dampen investors' interest in riskier assets or weaken the overall positive market sentiment, benefiting assets like precious metals that are considered safe havens.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

As of December 13th, Gold is experiencing a nuanced shift in its market dynamics. Currently trading at $1,978, it registers a slight decrease of 0.07%. The precious metal is navigating through a complex technical landscape, marked by a mix of bearish and neutral signals.

In the realm of key price levels, the pivot point for Gold stands at $1,896. It faces immediate resistance at $1,948, with further barriers set at $2,049 and $2,103. Should bearish pressures intensify, support may be found at $1,798, followed by $1,694 and $1,594. These levels delineate the crucial thresholds that could determine Gold's short-term direction.

The technical indicators paint a detailed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 31, signaling that Gold is nearing oversold territory, but still shy of the critical 30 mark. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of -0.418, with its signal line at -12.414, hinting at a potential bearish sentiment in the near term.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is placed at $1,983, slightly above the current price, suggesting a potential short-term bearish trend. However, the recent formation of Doji and spinning top candles just above the $1,980 mark indicates a state of indecision among traders, particularly in anticipation of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision.

In conclusion, while Gold's trend remains predominantly bullish above the $1,980 level, the current market indicators and upcoming economic events suggest a cautious approach. Traders and investors are likely to focus closely on the outcomes of the FOMC meeting and the Federal Reserve’s rate decision, which could significantly impact Gold's price movement in the short term.

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Despite the German ZEW Indicator surpassing expectations at 12.8, the EUR/USD currency pair failed to halt its downward trend and dipped to the 1.0790 level during early European trading hours on Wednesday. However, the primary reason for this downward movement can be attributed to modest strength in the US Dollar. Meanwhile, traders appear cautious about taking strong positions as the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) are set to announce their decisions on monetary policy on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively.

US Inflation Stability and Fed Rate Expectations Impacting EUR/USD Dynamics

It's worth noting that the recent US inflation report largely aligned with expectations. In November, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) edged up by 0.1% from October, with the yearly rate showing a slight easing to 3.1%. The Core CPI, which excludes volatile items, saw a monthly increase of 0.3% and an annual rise of 4.0%, consistent with predictions.

Looking ahead, the market expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates between 5.25% and 5.5% in December. There's an 80% chance of a rate cut in May, and the market predicts further cuts totaling a full percentage point by year-end, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

The US inflation report meeting expectations brings stability. It might influence the EUR/USD pair, with the market anticipating the Federal Reserve to maintain rates, potentially impacting the pair's dynamics.

ECB's Rate Decision and Positive Economic Sentiment Boost Euro Against Dollar

Moreover, the European Central Bank (ECB) is likely to keep interest rates steady in its December meeting, despite eurozone inflation nearing the 2.0% target. The ECB aims to delay expectations of a rate cut, emphasizing potential upward price risks, especially from rising wages. ECB President Christine Lagarde stressed the need for clear evidence that tight labor markets won't trigger inflation.

In recent news, the German ZEW Economic Sentiment improved, coming in at 12.8 compared to the previous 9.8, exceeding the expected 8.8. However, the Current Situation Index dipped to -77.1 from -79.8, below the anticipated -75.5. The Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment also rose to 23.0 from 13.8, surpassing the estimated 12.0.

Therefore, the ECB's decision to maintain interest rates and the positive German ZEW Economic Sentiment will support the Euro (EUR) against the US Dollar, potentially influencing the EUR/USD pair positively.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

On December 13th, the EUR/USD pair is exhibiting a subtle downward movement, currently trading at 1.07863, marking a 0.08% decline. This movement reflects the pair's response to broader market dynamics and impending economic decisions.

In the current trading session, the EUR/USD pair is navigating a critical juncture defined by significant technical levels. The pivot point is identified at $1.0690, offering a baseline for potential shifts in the currency's trajectory. On the upper side, the pair faces immediate resistance at $1.0792, followed by higher barriers at $1.0861 and $1.0967. Conversely, should the pair succumb to bearish pressures, it will encounter support at $1.0623, with subsequent levels at $1.0521 and $1.0417.

The technical indicators provide a deeper insight into the pair's current state. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 50, indicating a neutral market sentiment neither leaning towards overbought nor oversold conditions. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.00063, slightly above its signal line at -0.00045, suggesting a potential, albeit uncertain, upward momentum.

Notably, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1.0783 is acting as a significant resistance level. The presence of Doji and spinning top candles just under this EMA level hints at a selling bias among traders, especially as the market anticipates the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting's outcome.

In conclusion, while the EUR/USD pair demonstrates a bearish tendency below the $1.0783 mark, the overall trend is somewhat indecisive. Traders and investors are likely to maintain a cautious stance, waiting for clearer signals from the upcoming FOMC decision, which could significantly influence the pair's short-term direction.

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The GBP/USD currency pair failed to stop its losing streak and remained well offered around 1.2530 level on Wednesday. The GBP/USD pair had a lot of ups and downs in the last session due to job numbers in the UK and inflation figures in the US. According to the UK Office for National Statistics, the Claimant Count Change for November increased to 16.0K from the previous figure of 8.9K but fell short of the expected 20.3K.

Additionally, the Employment Change for October decreased to 50K from the previous 54K. Therefore, the GBP/USD faced slight pressure as the UK's Claimant Count Change and Employment Change data miss expectations, indicating economic challenges.

UK Economic Indicators Signal Challenges for GBP, Eyes on GDP and BoE Decision

It is worth noting that the UK Office for National Statistics reported an increase in November's Claimant Count Change to 16.0K from the previous 8.9K, but it fell short of the expected 20.3K. Additionally, Employment Change for October dropped to 50K from 54K.

Looking ahead, investors await Wednesday's data, expecting a 0.1% decline in October's monthly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and Industrial Production. On Thursday, the Bank of England (BoE) is anticipated to maintain interest rates at 5.25%, with a potentially hawkish tone.

These figures suggest potential economic challenges, impacting the GBP. Traders will closely watch the upcoming GDP and BoE decisions for further insights into the UK's economic health and the currency's future direction.

Anticipation of US Economic Indicators and Fed Decision Sparks GBP/USD Volatility

Furthermore, market investors are awaiting the US Producer Price Index (PPI) and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) Interest Rate Decision in the upcoming North American session. The US Dollar (USD) saw a minor dip and recovery following the release of moderate Consumer Price Index (CPI) data in the United States (US).

On Tuesday, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported a 0.1% monthly and 3.1% yearly increase in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November, aligning with expectations. The Core CPI also rose by 0.3% monthly and 4.0% yearly, meeting projected levels.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is anticipated to maintain its current policy stance in the December meeting. Investors will closely watch for insights from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell on potential interest rate changes in the upcoming year. This could impact the US Dollar's performance as traders assess future monetary policy directions.

Therefore, the GBP/USD pair will likely experience volatility as investors eagerly await the US PPI and Fed's Interest Rate Decision.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair on December 13th exhibits a slight downward trend, currently positioned at 1.25513, marking a decline of 0.1%. As market participants analyze the currency's movement within the context of global economic developments, the technical outlook presents a nuanced perspective.

In the current trading landscape, the pair is navigating through crucial technical levels. The pivot point is established at $1.2458, serving as a foundation for potential directional shifts. The currency pair confronts immediate resistance at $1.2595, with further hurdles at $1.2682 and $1.2813. On the downside, immediate support looms at $1.2370, followed by stronger levels at $1.2240 and $1.2104.

The technical indicators contribute to this complex picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 44, indicating a bearish sentiment as it remains below the critical 50 threshold. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) reveals a value of 0.00022, contrasting with its signal line at -0.00101, suggesting a potential shift in momentum.

Notably, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is currently at $1.2556, with the GBP/USD trading just below this mark. This positioning of the EMA is acting as a significant resistance level at $1.2575. The formation of Doji and spinning top candles under this EMA level indicates a selling bias, particularly as the market awaits the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting.

In conclusion, the GBP/USD pair presents a bearish trend below the $1.2575 resistance level. This sentiment is underpinned by the currency's current positioning relative to key technical indicators and patterns. Traders are likely to maintain a cautious approach, particularly in light of the impending FOMC decision, which could influence short-term market dynamics.

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The AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and has shown strength. However, this positive momentum can be attributed to the hawkish sentiment expressed by RBA Governor Michele Bullock. In her recent statements, Australia's chief policymaker, Bullock, emphasized the Reserve Bank of Australia's commitment to fostering a resilient labor market in the country. This stance has provided an additional boost to the AUD/USD pair.

Investors are closely monitoring the forthcoming release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures for November, scheduled for Tuesday, as they could significantly impact the trajectory of the pair. Market expectations indicate a potential easing of the annual US Consumer Price Index (CPI) to 3.1%, down slightly from the previous 3.2%, accompanied by a projected 0.1% increase in the monthly inflation figure. The US Core CPI is anticipated to maintain its stability at 4.0%. These figures are expected to play a pivotal role in shaping investor sentiment.

Consumer Confidence, RBA Decision, and China's Impact on the Australian Dollar

On the Australian front, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian Consumer Confidence weekly survey rose to 80.8, indicating increased optimism. Additionally, Westpac Consumer Confidence for December improved by 2.7% from the previous decline of 2.6%, reflecting a positive economic outlook.

Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) recently left interest rates unchanged at the final meeting for the year. Governor Michele Bullock expressed confidence, emphasizing a cautious approach and the RBA's commitment to maintaining employment gains.

Moreover, China has recently removed restrictions on meat imports from Australia, a development that could potentially enhance overall sentiment. However, worries regarding deflationary pressures in China have triggered a selling trend for the Australian Dollar.

US Dollar Strength and FOMC Meeting:

In contrast to this, the US Dollar Index is holding its strength, buoyed by resilient US Treasury yields and robust employment figures in the United States. This strength in the Greenback is exerting downward pressure on the AUD/USD pair. A stronger US Dollar typically diminishes investor appetites and serves as a headwind for the pair.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins its two-day monetary policy meeting on Tuesday. While expectations lean towards no change in interest rates, investors will closely analyze the statement for signals about potential rate adjustments in the coming year.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair, as of December 12, exhibits a notable upturn in the Forex market. Currently priced at 0.65902, the pair has experienced a 0.35% rise within a 24-hour period. Analyzing the 4-hour chart provides a clearer perspective on its short-term movements.

In terms of key price levels, the immediate resistance for the AUD/USD pair is at 0.6503. Surpassing this level could pave the way to the next resistance at 0.6599, followed by a further potential ceiling at 0.6668. On the flip side, support levels are observed at 0.6763, 0.6434, and 0.6340. These levels are crucial as they will dictate the pair's ability to maintain its current momentum or face a potential retracement.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 53, indicating a slightly bullish sentiment in the market. This level suggests that the currency pair is neither overbought nor oversold, but leans towards a bullish bias. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of 0.00014 with a signal line at -0.00055. The MACD line's position above the signal line hints at a potential upward momentum for the AUD/USD pair, supporting the bullish sentiment indicated by the RSI.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the pair is currently at 0.6574. Given that the pair's price is hovering above the 50 EMA, it signifies a short-term bullish trend. Furthermore, the chart reveals an upward trendline providing support around 0.6550. A consistent close above this level could trigger further buying interest in the Australian Dollar.

In conclusion, the overall trend for the AUD/USD pair appears bullish, particularly if it maintains above the 0.6550 level. In the short term, we can expect the pair to potentially test higher resistance levels, particularly 0.6599, if the bullish momentum persists.

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Daily Price Outlook

During the European session on Tuesday, the USD/CAD currency pair is failed to stop its three-day losing streak and remained well offered around 1.3560 mark. However, this decline could be associated with the bearish US dollar. The US Dollar Index (DXY) turns negative following two days of gains. Additionally, crude oil prices are holding steady after a three-day winning streak. This stability could be supportive for the Canadian Dollar (CAD) and contributes to the declines in the USD/CAD pair. However, the positive sentiment in WTI prices is driven by confidence in the resilience of the US economy.

WTI Trades Bullish Amid Economic Resilience and Lingering Challenges

It is worth noting that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading around $71.70 per barrel on Tuesday. The recent uptick in oil prices comes after last week's data release, indicating a certain resilience in the United States (US) economy.

However, there are potential challenges for crude oil prices including ongoing concerns about global demand, especially with weaker economic data from China, the world's largest oil importer, and other major economies, which could affect prices. In the meantime, worries persist about oversupply, despite efforts by OPEC+ members to cut production. These factors might put pressure on oil prices in the near term and may help the USD/CAD pair to limit its deeper losses.

USD Index Declines, FOMC Meeting Underway, and BoC Governor's Address Awaited

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is going down and staying below 104.00. This is happening despite stable US Treasury yields. The dollar got a temporary boost from good job numbers in the US. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is starting a two-day meeting on Tuesday. Most people expect that interest rates will remain unchanged. Investors will pay close attention to the FOMC statement for hints about possible rate changes next year.

Looking at Canada, it's important to note that Bank of Canada (BoC) Governor Tiff Macklem is scheduled to speak on Friday. People in the market will be paying close attention, hoping to gain insights or comments about how the Canadian economy is doing and any potential changes in monetary policy.

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

As of December 12, the USD/CAD currency pair is exhibiting a minor downward trend in the Forex market, currently trading at 1.35585, a decrease of 0.12%. Analyzing the 4-hour chart provides a nuanced view of its short-term movements and potential pivot points.

In terms of key price levels, the USD/CAD pair faces immediate resistance at 1.3561. Overcoming this level could lead the pair to test further resistance at 1.3644 and potentially at 1.3701. Conversely, support levels are observed at 1.3781, 1.3504, and 1.3421. These levels will be critical in determining whether the pair can sustain its current momentum or if a reversal is imminent.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 41, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market. This level suggests that the pair is neither in the overbought nor the oversold territory but leans towards a bearish inclination. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of -0.0004 with a signal line at 0.00014. The MACD line's position below the signal line hints at potential downward momentum for the USD/CAD pair, reinforcing the bearish sentiment indicated by the RSI.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for the pair is currently at 1.3576. Given that the pair's price is hovering below the 50 EMA, it signifies a short-term bearish trend. Furthermore, the chart reveals a downward channel keeping the USD/CAD pair bearish, especially below the 1.3570 support zone. A consistent close below this level could trigger further selling interest in the Canadian Dollar.

In conclusion, the overall trend for the USD/CAD pair appears bearish, particularly if it maintains below the critical 1.3570 level.

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