Daily Price Outlook

Despite downbeat Retail Sales data from the country, the AUD/USD currency pair maintained its upward trend and remained well bid around the 0.6625 level. However, the reason for its upward momentum could be attributed to the bearish US dollar, which marked its lowest point since late August on Tuesday. The prevailing trend continues to lean towards the downside, fueled by a dip in US Treasury yields, notably with the 2 and 10-year bond yields slipping to 4.86% and 4.39%, respectively.

Another factor supporting the AUD/USD currency pair could be the National Australia Bank (NAB), which anticipates another RBA rate hike and expects it to occur at the February 2024 meeting.

Australian Dollar (AUD) Resilience Amid Consumer Spending Dip and RBA Caution

It's worth noting that Australia's consumer spending, a key measure by the Australian Bureau of Statistics, fell 0.2% in October, contrary to the expected 0.1% rise. Despite this, the Australian Dollar gained strength due to positive market sentiment and the announcement of a Chinese stimulus plan.

Meanwhile, Australia's Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock highlighted that the current monetary policy is restrictive. She's cautious about raising interest rates too much because it might reduce demand and impact jobs, especially with ongoing services inflation.

Thereby, the minutes from the RBA's meeting revealed a "credible case" against an immediate rate hike, although there is thinking of tightening in response to escalating inflation risks. National Australia Bank (NAB) foresees a potential RBA rate hike, possibly in February 2024.

Governor Bullock expects inflation to decrease to just under 3.0% in 2025 but acknowledges uncertainty. Traders are awaiting Wednesday's Monthly Consumer Price Index (YoY) for more insights.

FOMC Minutes, US Economic Data, and Potential Impacts on AUD/USD Pair

Moreover, the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes indicated that if there isn't sufficient progress toward the inflation goal, they might contemplate tightening monetary policy. All FOMC members unanimously agree to maintain a relatively tight policy until there is clear evidence of inflation aligning with their target.

In other news, US New Home Sales dropped by 5.6% to 679K, missing the expected 725K.

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On Tuesday, the US Dollar Index (DXY) reached its lowest level since late August, propelled by a decrease in US Treasury yields, with 2 and 10-year bond yields slipping to 4.86% and 4.39%. Consequently, the AUD/USD pair might experience a positive influence as the USD weakens, attributed to the Federal Open Market Committee's (FOMC) cautious approach to tightening policy.

Furthermore, the prospect of a weaker USD may be exacerbated by disappointing US New Home Sales, thereby favoring the Australian Dollar.

In the upcoming week, the US is scheduled to release key data, notably the Housing Price Index and CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday. Furthermore, speeches from Federal Reserve (Fed) officials are expected to offer insights into the central bank's perspective on the economy.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

In the realm of foreign exchange, the Australian Dollar (AUD) against the US Dollar (USD) presents an intriguing narrative of resilience and growth. As of today, the AUD/USD pair is trading around 0.66, marking a modest rise of 0.14% in the last 24 hours. This movement signifies a cautious but positive sentiment in the market towards the Australian currency.

The technical landscape for AUD/USD is defined by several key price levels. The current pivot point stands at 0.6648, a critical level for determining its immediate directional bias. The pair faces immediate resistance at 0.6707, followed by higher levels at 0.6765 and 0.6824. These resistance levels will play a significant role in deciding whether the AUD can extend its upward trajectory against the USD. On the flip side, support levels are noted at 0.6618, with additional supports at 0.6558 and 0.6528, crucial for cushioning any potential declines.

From a technical indicators perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for AUD/USD is at 67, hovering near the overbought threshold but still indicative of a bullish sentiment. This suggests that the pair may still have room for further upward movement. Additionally, the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at 0.6600. The AUD/USD trading above this level reinforces the notion of a short-term bullish trend.

In conclusion, the overall trend for the AUD/USD pair appears bullish, particularly if it maintains above the 0.65872 level. The short-term outlook suggests that the pair might test higher resistance levels in the coming days. Investors and traders should closely monitor these levels, as breaking through either resistance or support could signal significant price movements for the Australian Dollar against its American counterpart.

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Daily Price Outlook

The GBP/USD currency pair extended its upward rally and drew some further bids around the 1.2500 level during Monday's Asian session. However, the reason for its upward movement could be attributed to the hawkish stance of Bank of England (BoE) officials, who highlighted the necessity for prolonged higher interest rates. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair's upward trend was reinforced by a weakening US dollar, influenced by speculation that the Federal Reserve might consider easing monetary policy in 2024.

BoE's Firm Stance on Tight Monetary Policy and Influences on GBP/USD Dynamics

It's worth noting that Huw Pill, Chief Economist of the Bank of England (BoE), highlighted in a Friday interview with the Financial Times that the central bank is firm in its commitment to combating inflation and has no intentions of relaxing its tight monetary policy. He underscored the importance of maintaining higher interest rates for an extended duration. BoE Governor Andrew Bailey has also recently expressed views in favor of the necessity of keeping interest rates elevated for an extended period.

Meanwhile, the GBP/USD pair received a boost from positive PMI data released on Thursday in the UK. Business activity showed signs of improvement, with both the Services and Composite PMIs expanding in November after three months of decline. This development surprised many who were anticipating stagnation, signaling a positive turn in the UK's economic performance.

On the data front, the Manufacturing PMI improved, but it's still below the expansion mark. On the consumer side, GfK Consumer Confidence for November experienced a decline, surpassing initial expectations. These factors introduce some complexity to the overall picture, influencing the dynamics of the GBP/USD pair.

Factors Influencing GBP/USD Pair and Upcoming Economic Indicators

Another key factor bolstering the GBP/USD pair was the weaker US dollar. Despite the improvement in US Treasury yields, the US Dollar Index (DXY) extended its losing streak. The 10-year US bond yield remained steady at 4.49% for the fourth consecutive session.

It's important to note that there is discussion about the US Federal Reserve considering changes to its monetary policy next year. However, recent comments from Fed officials last week added some complexity to the situation. They stressed that decisions will be based on incoming data, highlighting the importance of monitoring economic indicators to address concerns about inflation.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The GBP/USD pair is currently trading near 1.26, showing a modest increase of 0.01%. This indicates a cautious market sentiment amid broader economic uncertainties. Technically, the pair’s pivot point is at 1.2600, with resistance levels at 1.2700, 1.2800, and 1.2900, which are key to gauging its bullish momentum. Support levels are found at 1.2500, 1.2400, and 1.2300, offering potential buffers against declines.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 70, suggesting the pair may be nearing overbought conditions and could face a pullback or stabilization soon. This is further complicated by the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displaying neutral values (0.000), indicating a potential consolidation phase or a lack of clear market direction.

A notable factor is the pair’s position relative to the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2500. Currently trading above this level, GBP/USD shows a short-term bullish trend with the 50 EMA acting as dynamic support.

While the chart pattern analysis doesn’t present a definitive trend, close monitoring of candlestick patterns may offer further insight into the pair's short-term movements.

In summary, GBP/USD's overall trend leans cautiously bullish, particularly if it maintains above 1.25889. The short-term outlook suggests the possibility of the pair testing higher resistance, especially around 1.2700. However, given the RSI’s proximity to the overbought territory and the neutral MACD, a careful approach is advised as these indicators might signal a shift in market dynamics.

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Gold (XAU/USD) price has maintained its upward trajectory, holding strong around the $2,010 level. However, this bullish movement can be attributed to the weakened US dollar. The US dollar faced pressure due to mixed S&P Global PMI data, leading market participants to speculate that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider easing monetary policy in 2024.

Furthermore, the positive sentiment in the gold market was further reinforced by news that the People's Bank of China (PBoC) issued a notice to enhance financial support for private firms. This development added to the overall optimism surrounding gold, contributing to the ongoing uptrend in its price.

Gold Gains Momentum as Gloomy Sentiment Surrounds the US Dollar

As previously mentioned, gold is experiencing a surge in value, thanks to the bearish sentiment surrounding the US Dollar. However, this downward trend in the USD is influenced by a combination of mixed data like the S&P Global PMI data. This has led to speculation among investors that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) may consider adopting a more accommodative monetary policy in 2024.

Hence, the ongoing scenario is improving gold's appeal as a safe-haven option amid uncertainties in the dollar and lingering questions about the direction the Fed will take with its monetary decisions.

At the data front, the US S&P Global Composite PMI held steady at 50.7 in November. While the Services PMI went up to 50.8, the Manufacturing PMI dipped to 49.4, missing the estimated 49.8. It should be noted that the broad-based US dollar is struggling around 103.40, finding it hard to stop losses despite improved US Treasury yields. Notably the 10-year and 2-year bond yields are at 4.50% and 4.97%, respectively.

Positive Developments in China's Support for Private Firms May Boost Gold Prices

Furthermore, the People's Bank of China (PBoC) has given a notice to help out private companies more, which was seen as another key factor that kept the gold price higher. They are supporting these companies in different ways, like helping them go public, get money, merge with other companies, and make changes to how they operate.

Moreover, PBoC is planning to increase the amount of bonds that private companies can get. In the meantime, they're telling banks not to stop giving loans to private companies that are having some temporary problems but still have good technology.

Therefore, the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) efforts to support private companies by facilitating their access to capital create an environment of economic stability and growth. This, in turn, boosts investor confidence, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, hence potentially driving up its price.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

In today's technical analysis of gold, we observe a positive sentiment in the market as the precious metal trades at around $2009, reflecting a 0.41% increase in the past 24 hours. This uptick is part of a consistent bullish trend that gold has been experiencing recently.

The pivot point for gold stands at $2017, indicating a crucial juncture in determining its short-term movement. Resistance levels are identified at $2034, $2060, and $2086, which gold may encounter if the bullish momentum continues. Conversely, support levels are established at $1991, $1976, and $1949, which could provide a cushion if a downward correction occurs.

From a technical indicators perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 68, nearing the overbought threshold of 70. This suggests that gold is potentially at a juncture where a pullback or consolidation could occur. However, an RSI above 50 generally indicates bullish sentiment, underlining the buying pressure behind the current trend.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) readings show a value of 0.92 with a signal line at 5.61. This configuration, while showing positive momentum, suggests a cautious uptrend as the gap between the MACD line and the signal line is not significantly large.

Another crucial indicator, the 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), is at $2002. Gold trading above its 50 EMA underscores the short-term bullish trend, with the EMA serving as a dynamic support in this context.

A key pattern observed in the gold chart is a triple top breakout at $2005. This pattern is typically a bullish signal, indicating the possibility of an upward trend continuation if gold remains above this level.

In conclusion, the overall trend for gold appears to be bullish, particularly if it maintains its stance above the $2005 level. The near-term forecast, based on the current technical setup, suggests that gold might test higher resistance levels in the upcoming sessions, contingent upon maintaining the momentum and crossing pivotal thresholds like the immediate resistance at $2034. As always, market dynamics and external economic factors could influence these predictions, necessitating continuous monitoring of gold's price movements and related economic indicators.

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Daily Price Outlook

Despite the German economy experiencing a modest economic slowdown in the second half of the year, the EUR/USD currency pair continued its upward rally, maintaining a strong position around 1.2620 marks during the early European session on Monday. However, this upward trend can be attributed to the bearish US Dollar, which supported the EUR/USD pair. However, the upticks in the EUR/USD pair may be limited due to the challenges faced by the German economy.

Moving forward, traders seem hesitant to take strong positions, as they are awaiting key data releases. The focus will be on the German and Eurozone inflation data, along with US GDP data, as these factors are expected to provide fresh impetus to the market.

Germany's Economic Slowdown and its Impact on the EUR/USD Pair

It's worth noting that Germany's economy experienced a slight deceleration in the third quarter of the year. According to the latest data, there was a 0.1% contraction in quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a 0.4% annual decline.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank Vice President Luis de Guindos highlighted that economic risks in Europe are leaning towards the downside. He also mentioned the potential for inflation to rise in the coming months but suggested that maintaining stable interest rates could contribute to its control.

Furthermore, Germany experienced a setback as its constitutional court declared the reallocation of unused debt from COVID-19 emergency funding to current spending plans unlawful. This ruling resulted in a 60 billion Euro gap in the government's budget, notably affecting climate policies.

Therefore, these factors could exert pressure on the Euro and pose challenges for the EUR/USD pair.

Recent Developments in US Financial Markets and Economic Indicators

Despite improvements in US Treasury yields, the US Dollar failed to stop its downward trend and still losing ground, while the 10-year US bond yield held firm at 4.49% for the fourth straight session. Hence, the bearish US dollar was seen as another key factor that helped the EUR/USD pair to stay bid.

Looking forward, discussions are underway regarding potential adjustments to the monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve in the upcoming year. However, recent statements from Fed officials have introduced some uncertainty.

On the data front, the S&P Global Composite PMI held steady at 50.7 in November. Nevertheless, the Manufacturing PMI experienced a slight dip, sliding to 49.4 from 50.0, falling below the expected 49.8.

On a more positive note, the Services PMI showed modest growth, reaching 50.8, up from the previous month's 50.6 and surpassing the anticipated 50.4.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD pair, currently trading around 1.09 with a modest increase of 0.05%, reflects a cautiously optimistic market sentiment. This slight upward movement signifies a potential strengthening in the short term.

The pair's technical landscape is defined by key price levels: a pivot point at 1.0987, immediate resistances at 1.1033, 1.1100, and 1.1165, and supports at 1.0918, 1.0873, and 1.0806. These levels are crucial in determining the pair's short-term trajectory, with resistances testing the pair's ability to sustain an upward trend and supports offering potential rebound points in case of a decline.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 64, suggesting a bullish sentiment without yet reaching overbought conditions. This indicator points towards potential room for further upward movement. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a neutral stance with both the MACD and signal lines at 0.00, indicating a balanced market with no clear direction in momentum.

The 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at 1.0930, with the EUR/USD trading slightly below this level. This positioning suggests a tentative bullish trend, with the 50 EMA potentially acting as a short-term resistance.

Chart patterns do not present a clear directional bias, leaving the door open for various interpretations based on upcoming economic events and data releases.

Conclusively, the EUR/USD pair exhibits a cautiously bullish trend, particularly if it remains above the 1.0920 mark. The short-term outlook suggests the possibility of the pair testing the immediate resistance at 1.1033, contingent on maintaining the current momentum. This forecast, however, remains subject to change based on unfolding global economic dynamics and policy decisions.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold (XAU/USD) continued its upward rally, registering modest gains on Thursday, supported by a weakened US Dollar. However, it has not yet surpassed the significant $2,000 psychological mark. Gold prices are currently fluctuating within a narrow trading range. However, the reason behind this upward momentum can be traced to dovish expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve. However, the anticipation of a more accommodative monetary policy from the Fed continues to lend support to gold, a non-yielding yellow metal.

Fed's Hawkish Tone and Economic Resilience Create Mixed Signals for Gold and USD

Despite the Federal Reserve adopting a hawkish tone in the minutes released on Tuesday, investors are leaning towards the belief that the central bank will stick to steady interest rates instead of opting for an increase. This stance is curbing the recovery of the US Dollar this week and contributing to gains in the price of gold.

On the flip side, the release of US economic data on Wednesday showcased strength in the job market, introducing some uncertainty about the Federal Reserve's future plans. This, combined with an increase in US Treasury bond yields, is giving a boost to the US Dollar and limiting the upward movement of gold. Despite this, gold is still set for its second straight weekly gain as traders eagerly await the release of flash US PMIs, which could have a notable impact on the market on the final day of the week.

Gold Price Uncertainty Amidst Fed's Hawkish Stance and Market Rate Cut Expectations

On Friday in Asia, gold doesn't know where to go. People who trade are uncertain because the Federal Reserve wants to keep interest rates high to control prices, but others think they might lower rates in 2024. This confusion is making traders hesitant about what to do with gold.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

As of November 24, Gold exhibits a modest uptick, with its price marginally increasing by 0.03% to $1992. This slight rise positions the precious metal just below the pivotal $2005 mark. Looking ahead, Gold encounters immediate resistance at $2030, followed by higher thresholds at $2068 and $2100. Conversely, support levels are established at $1970, $1945, and $1907, providing potential cushions against downward movements.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Gold stands at 55, indicating a mildly bullish sentiment without showing signs of overextension into overbought territory. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a value of -1.3 with a signal line at 3.56, suggesting mixed signals. While the negative MACD hints at potential bearish momentum, the price of Gold hovers around its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $1993, supporting a short-term bullish outlook.

Chart analysis reveals an upward channel pattern, endorsing a buying trend for Gold. This pattern indicates sustained bullish momentum, reinforcing the metal's upward trajectory.

In conclusion, the overall trend for Gold remains bullish, particularly if it sustains above the crucial $1985 mark. In the short term, Gold is anticipated to challenge the immediate resistance at $2030. Should it breach this level, further resistance tests at $2068 and $2100 could be on the horizon. Investors and traders should closely monitor these key levels and indicators, as they will likely influence Gold’s price movements in the coming days.

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During the early European trading session on Friday, the EUR/USD pair maintained its upward rally and remained well bids around above 1.0900. However, the reason for its upward trend can be attributed to the release of Eurozone PMI data that exceeded market expectations.

Investor focus is now shifting to the release of Germany's Gross Domestic Product for the third quarter (Q3) and the upcoming US PMI data, both scheduled for Friday. Hence, the outcomes of these economic indicators are poised to significantly influence market dynamics.

On the flip side, the US market remained closed on Thursday, with no economic data released. During this period, the US dollar experienced a decline as market participants increased their bets that the Federal Reserve had ended its hiking cycle, and there were expectations of a rate cut in the middle of 2024. Consequently, the bearish trend in the US dollar was seen as another key factor contributing to the pair's upward movement.

Eurozone's Strong PMI Data Sparks Positive Momentum, Boosts EUR/USD Pair

According to the latest information on Thursday, the Eurozone's November PMI data surpassed expectations. Meanwhile, the overall Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) increased to 47.1, surpassing the estimated 46.9 and showing improvement from the previous 46.5. The Manufacturing PMI reached a six-month high at 43.8, up from 43.1, while the Services PMI expanded to 48.2, compared to the previous 47.8. Hence, this positive data provided a boost to the Euro against the US dollar.

In Germany, the Business Climate Index, a crucial economic indicator, showed improvement in November, reaching 87.3. Although this slightly missed the anticipated 87.5, it still marked an improvement from October's figure of 86.9. This suggests a more positive business outlook in Germany. Collectively, these reports indicate a noticeable upturn in momentum for the Eurozone economy.

Therefore, the positive Eurozone PMI data, signaling economic improvement, boosted the Euro against the US dollar. This was reinforced by Germany's improved Business Climate Index, supporting positive momentum for the EUR/USD pair.

US Market Pause and Dollar Dip Amid Fed Speculation; Eyes on Upcoming PMI Data

Furthermore, the US market took a breather on Thursday, with no economic data released as it was a holiday. During this period, the US dollar witnessed a decline in value, fueled by market speculation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) could have ended its interest rate hikes and might consider rate cuts in mid-2024.

Looking ahead, the upcoming US PMI data will give us a look into how well the US economy is doing. People will be paying close attention to these numbers because they tell us how different parts of the US economy are doing. This information can also affect the value of the US dollar in the global market.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

As of November 24, the EUR/USD pair presents a somewhat restrained movement, recording a marginal decline of 0.08% to 1.0898. This slight downward shift places the currency pair just below the pivotal level of 1.0995. Looking ahead, the pair faces immediate resistance at 1.1080, with subsequent barriers at 1.1244 and 1.1418. On the downside, support is evident at 1.0833, followed by lower levels at 1.0742 and 1.0580.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for EUR/USD stands at 49, indicating a neutral to slightly bearish market sentiment. However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) presents a more complex picture with a value of -0.47 and a signal line at 0.57, suggesting potential for downward momentum. Yet, the EUR/USD pair is hovering around its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.0904, which marginally supports a bullish trend.

Chart analysis shows the EUR/USD pair holding above the 1.0888 support level, with the 50 EMA providing a backbone for a potential buying trend. This technical setup points to a cautiously optimistic outlook for the pair.

In conclusion, the overall trend for EUR/USD appears to be cautiously bullish, particularly if the pair maintains above the $1.0888 mark. In the short term, the currency pair is expected to test the immediate resistance at 1.1080. However, traders should remain vigilant to the mixed signals from the MACD and RSI indicators, which might influence the pair's ability to breach these resistance levels effectively.

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Global markets have been consistently showing positive signs, maintaining their upward rally. Asian stocks have reached a two-month peak, and US indices are climbing as the Thanksgiving holiday approaches. Investors are closely monitoring various economic indicators and corporate earnings reports, speculating on potential shifts in future monetary policies.

This trend was evident as U.S. indices experienced gains. The S&P 500 increased by 0.4%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average by 0.5%, and the Nasdaq also saw a modest uptick. Notably, major tech players such as Microsoft and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) contributed to this surge. However, Broadcom (NASDAQ: AVGO) witnessed a decline in its shares following the announcement of a deal with VMWare.

Impact of Weak US Dollar and Fed Expectations on S&P 500

It is worth noting that the US Dollar Index is trading weak around 103.70. Despite cautions from the Fed, markets believe they won't be too strict after the report of soft inflation figures in October. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics shared that October's Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) didn't meet expectations, coming in at 4% YoY instead of the expected 4.1%. The headline figure also fell short at 3.2% YoY, below the expected 3.3%. Furthermore, the Core Producer Price Index (PPI) for October was lower than expected at 2.4% YoY instead of 2.7%.

Meanwhile, the November minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) revealed concerns about inflation. The market is confident that the Federal Reserve won't raise interest rates in December and is even betting on rate cuts sooner than expected, possibly in May 2024, with some also betting on a rate cut in March.

Therefore, the weak US Dollar and expectations of a less strict Fed stance, driven by soft inflation figures, contribute to a positive sentiment. This could support the S&P 500 with potential gains.

S&P500 (SPX) - Technical Analysis

The S&P 500 Index continues to exhibit signs of strength on November 24, with a modest uptick of 0.41%, bringing the index to 4556.63. This positive movement places the S&P 500 above its pivot point of $4,561, suggesting a bullish inclination in the short term. The immediate resistance levels are set at $4,603, followed by more formidable barriers at $4,686 and $4,770. Conversely, the index finds support at lower levels, namely $4,474, $4,430, and $4,350, which could offer a cushion against any potential retracements.

The technical indicators for the S&P 500 paint a picture of bullish sentiment, albeit with cautionary notes. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 76, venturing into overbought territory, which might signal a possible pullback or consolidation in the near future. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) displays a value of 0.10, with a signal line at 57.78, indicating a potential upward momentum. Additionally, the index is trading above its 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of $4,533, reinforcing the current bullish trend.

From a chartist's perspective, the S&P 500 is maintaining a strong position above the crucial $4,500 level. This level now acts as a critical benchmark, with the index's movement above this point further supporting the bullish narrative.

In conclusion, the overall trend for the S&P 500 remains bullish, especially as long as it stays above the $4,500 threshold. In the short term, market participants should brace for the index to test the immediate resistance at $4,603, with a potential to extend gains towards the $4,686 and $4,770 levels. However, traders should remain vigilant of the overextended RSI, which could lead to a temporary consolidation or a slight pullback before any further upward movements.

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The USD/JPY currency pair extended its downward trend, falling to around the 149.14 level for the second consecutive day on Wednesday. However, the bearish bias can be attributed to speculations of a hawkish shift in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) policy stance, benefiting the JPY and putting pressure on the USD/JPY currency pair.

Despite this, the recent release of hawkish Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, along with better-than-expected US labor market and consumer sentiment data on Wednesday, provided some support to the US dollar. This helped the USD/JPY pair to limit its deeper losses. However, the gains in the US dollar proved short-lived and temporary, as investors appear convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has ended its policy-tightening campaign and will start cutting rates by May 2024.

Therefore, this belief triggered a fresh decline in US Treasury bond yields, prompting some selling of the US dollar. Consequently, this pressure once again weighed on the USD/JPY currency pair.

USD/JPY Under Pressure Amid Mixed US Economic Signals and Fed's Rate-Cut Speculations

It's worth noting that the Federal Reserve plans to stick with higher interest rates, according to their recent meeting minutes. Meanwhile, the US job market showed resilience, with Initial Jobless Claims dropping to 209,000, the lowest in over a month. This positive jobs data suggests the labor market remains strong amid economic uncertainties.

According to the University of Michigan's survey, consumer sentiment declined for the fourth consecutive month to 61.3 in November. Inflation expectations also rose to 4.5%, marking the highest level since April 2023. Adding to the economic concerns, Durable Goods Orders took a hit, falling by 5.4% in October.

Furthermore, investors are increasingly convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) has concluded its cycle of interest rate hikes and may potentially initiate rate cuts as early as May 2024. This belief is contributing to a decline in US Treasury bond yields, prompting some selling of the US Dollar (USD).

Therefore, the USD/JPY pair is under pressure as positive US job data clashes with declining consumer sentiment and signals of potential rate cuts from the Fed. This conflicting of factors is contributing to a subdued market environment.

USD/JPY - Technical Analysis

The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 149.118, experiencing a slight decrease of 0.27%. The pivot point is at 148.5700. Resistance levels are identified at 150.2030, 151.3690, and 152.9430, which could restrict upward price movements.

Support levels are found at 147.5210, 145.9460, and 144.2560, potentially cushioning any downward trends. The RSI stands at 49, indicating a balanced market condition, neither overbought nor oversold.

The MACD value is at 0.207, with the signal at -0.171, hinting at a potential bullish momentum. The 50 EMA is at 149.0450, closely aligned with the current price, suggesting a stable short-term trend.

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Despite Australia's data showing a slowdown in economic activities during November, the AUD/USD pair maintained its upward trend and remained well bid around the 0.6570 level. However, the reason for its upward rally could be linked to the bearish US dollar, which is losing momentum amid the sentiment that the Fed may not pursue additional interest rate hikes, with a 50% chance of the US central bank cutting interest rates by May 2024.

Furthermore, the National Australia Bank (NAB) anticipates another RBA rate hike, expecting it to occur at the February 2024 meeting. This expectation is seen as another key factor boosting the AUD/USD pair. Market activity is subdued as traders prepare for the Thanksgiving Day holiday in the US on Thursday.

Australia's Economic Slowdown and RBA's Monetary Policy Outlook Boosts AUD/USD Pair Confidence

According to data released on Thursday, Australia's economic activity in November suggests a slowdown. The preliminary Judo Bank Manufacturing PMI dropped to 47.7 from last month's 48.2, and the Services PMI fell to 46.3 from 47.9. These declines contributed to an overall decrease in the Composite PMI, which dropped to 46.4 from 47.6.

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock, speaking at the ABE Annual Dinner, addressed the recent monetary policy decision. She pointed out that the inflation challenge is primarily driven by domestic factors, particularly demand. Bullock emphasized that tightening monetary policy is the appropriate course of action to address demand-driven inflation, despite improvements in supply-chain inflation.

Therefore, the news of Australia's economic slowdown, combined with the prospect of an RBA interest rate hike in February 2024, could bolster investor confidence, potentially strengthening the AUD/USD pair.

Mixed US Economic Reports and Potential Monetary Tightening Impact AUD/USD Pair

Furthermore, the US Dollar bounced back on mixed economic reports, but its momentum slowed. Jobless Claims data on Wednesday showed a better-than-expected drop to 209K from 233K. However, Durable Goods Orders took a hit, falling 5.4% in October, which was more than the expected 3.1% decline.

On a positive note, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for November was 61.3, beating the expected 60.5. The FOMC meeting minutes reveal a willingness to tighten monetary policy if necessary for inflation control. FOMC members unanimously agree to maintain a restrictive policy until there is clear evidence of inflation aligning with their target.

Therefore, the mixed US economic reports sparked a rebound in the US Dollar Index, influencing the AUD/USD pair. The potential for a tighter US monetary policy may lead to a stronger USD against the AUD.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The Australian Dollar against the US Dollar (AUD/USD) is trading at 0.65524, showing a modest increase of 0.15%. The pivot point for this pair is at 0.6584. Resistance levels are observed at 0.6658, 0.6777, and 0.6896, which could cap upward movements.

Support levels are at 0.6472, 0.6395, and 0.6276, offering potential support in case of a decline. The RSI for AUD/USD is at 58, indicating a neutral momentum without strong bullish or bearish signals.

The MACD value is -0.00046, with the signal at 0.00143, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum. The 50 EMA is at 0.6550, almost mirroring the current price, indicating a balanced short-term trend.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) managed to stop their previous day's decline and experienced a rebound during the early European session on Thursday. However, the upward movement is mainly attributed to a weakening US dollar, fueled by growing expectations that interest rates in the US have reached their peak. This sentiment is further supported by a recent decline in US Treasury bond yields, exerting downward pressure on the Greenback and contributing to the gains in the non-yielding precious metal, gold.

Gold Prices Surge Amid Dovish Fed and Economic Uncertainty

As mentioned earlier, gold has been gaining momentum and the reason could be tied to the renewed selling pressure on the US dollar. However, the recent surge in the dollar was fueled by optimistic minutes from the Federal Reserve's meeting, which appeared to be losing steam. Meanwhile, the sentiment that the Fed may not pursue additional interest rate hikes is gaining traction. The central bank seems inclined to sustain higher rates over an extended period, showing a readiness to implement more tighten policies if inflation management becomes a concern. Hence, this sentiment is seen as a key factor supporting the upward movement in gold prices.

Despite the positive data on the US labor market and consumer sentiment, the focus remains on the Federal Reserve's dovish outlook. Market indicators are pointing towards a 50% chance of the US central bank cutting interest rates by May 2024. Notably, unemployment claims exceeded expectations by dropping to a monthly low of 209K. However, consumer sentiment indicates an increase in inflation expectations for the second consecutive month. Furthermore, recent US data unveils a more significant-than-expected decline in orders for durable goods in October, pointing towards a deceleration in economic demand.

Therefore, the dovish Federal Reserve outlook, coupled with positive US data, has increased uncertainty, potentially leading to upward pressure on gold prices as investors seek a hedge against economic uncertainties and potential interest rate cuts.

Looking ahead, investor activity is subdued on the day with lighter trading volumes due to the US Thanksgiving holiday.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, is currently trading at $1996, marking a slight increase of 0.29%. The pivot point for gold stands at $2005 , suggesting a delicate balance in the market.

Resistance levels are identified at $2028, $2067, and $2103, indicating potential ceilings in price movement. Conversely, support levels are found at $1970, $1943, and $1908, providing potential floors for price dips.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is at 58, hovering near the midpoint of the 0-100 scale, suggesting a neutral market sentiment without clear overbought or oversold signals. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a value of -0.866, with the signal at 5.824, indicating a potential bearish divergence.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) is at $1994, closely aligning with the current price, suggesting a stable short-term trend.

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