Daily Price Outlook

During the early European session on Wednesday, the EUR/USD pair maintained its upward momentum and edging higher to around 1.0900 for the day. However, the driving force behind this upward movement can be attributed to the hawkish remarks delivered by ECB's Lagarde. These comments have offered some support to the shared currency and contributed to the EUR/USD pair gains.

Simultaneously, the US dollar is experiencing a decline in traction once again on this day, serving as another key factor contributing to the ongoing upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair.

USD Struggles and Uncertainties: Impact on EUR/USD Dynamics

The broad-based US dollar (USD), measured by the USD Index (DXY), is struggling to recover after a modest overnight bounce from a nearly three-month low, supporting the EUR/USD pair. The Federal Reserve's minutes hinted at maintaining higher interest rates to curb inflation, causing a brief rise in US Treasury yields and some short-covering in the USD on Tuesday.

However, market sentiment leans towards the Fed keeping rates steady, with expectations of a potential rate cut in the April 30-May 1 meeting. This belief is keeping 10-year US government bond yields low, limiting the Greenback's upside.

Factors Driving EUR/USD: Lagarde's Caution and Upcoming Economic Data

Another factor that has been boosting the EUR/USD pair is the recent positive comments from the European Central Bank (ECB) President Christine Lagarde. During a speech in Berlin, Lagarde adopted a cautious position regarding declaring victory over inflation.

She emphasized that it is too early to make such declarations and that placing bets based on short-term data would be premature. Thus, this cautious stance has caused investors to scale back their expectations of an immediate rate cut by the ECB, potentially in April.

Notably, the market initially expected a rate cut, but Lagarde's remarks have altered this perception. Consequently, traders are now hesitant to initiate new bullish positions on the EUR/USD pair.

Looking ahead, Investors expect Eurozone economic data on Wednesday. Meanwhile, the US weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be in the spotlight. These, along with US bond yields and market sentiment, will likely impact USD demand and influence the movement of the EUR/USD pair.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

In the current forex market, the EUR/USD pair, as of November 22, exhibits a notable stability, trading at 1.09122. This flat movement reflects the complex interplay of economic narratives and policy decisions from the Eurozone and the United States. As the market navigates these influences, the technical indicators and key price levels offer insights into the pair's potential direction.

The pivot point for the EUR/USD pair is established at 1.0994, serving as a critical benchmark for short-term price movements. Resistance levels are observed at 1.1083, 1.1249, and 1.1411, each representing potential hurdles for an upward trend. Conversely, support levels at 1.0829, 1.0750, and 1.0585 are crucial for preventing downward momentum.

From a technical perspective, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 56, indicating a cautiously optimistic trend, as the pair has not yet reached overbought conditions. The MACD, at a neutral value of 0.00, suggests a balance in market momentum, with neither a clear bullish nor bearish dominance. Further, the pair's current position just above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of 1.0922 suggests a slight bullish inclination in the short term.

Chart patterns, including candlestick analysis, signal a potential for bullish momentum, particularly if the pair maintains above its pivot point. This observation implies a readiness to test higher levels, provided the market sentiment remains favorable.

In conclusion, the EUR/USD pair's overall trend appears cautiously bullish above the 1.0899 level. The short-term expectation is for the pair to test the resistance at 1.1083. However, the forex market's dynamic nature calls for vigilance, as shifts in economic indicators and policy decisions could significantly impact the pair's trajectory. The upcoming days will be crucial in determining whether the EUR/USD can sustain its current position and challenge these resistance levels amidst evolving global economic conditions.

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Daily Price Outlook

Despite the bullish trend in the US dollar, the GBP/USD currency pair prolonged its winning streak and drew some additional bids around the 1.2540 level. However, the upward momentum in the pair can be attributed to the hawkish remarks made overnight by the Bank of England's (BoE) Bailey. These comments bolstered the British pound and contributed to the gains in the GBP/USD pair.

Meanwhile, the minutes from the Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting held on October 31-November 1 revealed that policymakers supported the idea of maintaining higher interest rates for an extended period to combat inflation. This stance helped the US dollar regain its lost momentum, leading to a slight surge on the day.

Consequently, the bullish bias in the US dollar was seen as a key factor that kept the lid on any additional gains in the GBPUSD pair.

BoE's Hawkish Stance Fuels GBP/USD Surge

As we mentioned above the British Pound is experiencing a boost due to recent positive comments from Bank of England (BoE) officials. They have indicated their intention to maintain high interest rates for an extended period to address inflation concerns in the UK.

During a meeting on Tuesday, Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey expressed concern that investors are placing excessive reliance on recent data without fully appreciating the potential persistence of inflation in the UK. He underscored the BoE's commitment to maintaining high-interest rates for an extended duration, opposing the notion that rates might be lowered by June 2024.

Hence, the optimistic remarks from the Bank of England, highlighting the commitment to maintaining high-interest rates for an extended period to address inflation, have propelled the GBP/USD pair.

US Dollar's Struggles Amid Fed's Mixed Signals and Rate Cut Anticipation

Moreover, the US Dollar struggles to bounce back despite a recent recovery, following the Federal Reserve's (Fed) meeting minutes suggesting a plan for keeping interest rates higher for an extended period to control inflation. However, this boosted the US dollar. Although, the positive market response didn't last because many believe the Fed will likely maintain current interest rates instead of raising them.

Meanwhile, the expectation of a potential rate cut at the April 30-May 1 policy meeting is further dampening the US dollar. This anticipation is keeping the yield on the 10-year US government bond low for the time being, diminishing the attractiveness of the USD.

Looking forward, traders will look to US data, including Weekly Initial Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, for market direction.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

As of November 22, the GBP/USD pair exhibits a complex movement pattern in the forex market, trading at 1.25353, marking a slight decrease of 0.01%. This minor fluctuation occurs within a larger framework of shifting economic conditions and adjustments in monetary policy in both the UK and the US.

The pair's key pivot point is established at 1.2575. It faces immediate resistance at 1.2683, with further potential barriers at 1.2853 and 1.3027. On the downside, support levels are identified at 1.2397, followed by 1.2285 and 1.2115, which are crucial in preventing further declines.

From a technical standpoint, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 68, suggesting a bullish trend that hasn't yet reached overbought conditions. The MACD, with a value of 0.000010 and a signal value of 0.003860, indicates potential upward momentum, as it is positioned slightly above the signal line. Additionally, the current price hovers just above the 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.2526, further reinforcing the bullish inclination.

Chart analysis, including patterns and candlestick formations, points towards possible bullish momentum, especially if the pair remains above the pivot point.

In conclusion, the overall trend for GBP/USD appears cautiously bullish, particularly if it sustains above the 1.2575 level. However, a fall below this pivot could shift the sentiment to bearish. In the short term, the pair is expected to challenge the resistance at 1.2683, and if the bullish trend continues, it may test even higher levels.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) struggled to maintain their previous upward momentum and experienced a decline below the $2,000 mark during the Asian session on Wednesday. However, the downward trend in gold can be attributed to the minutes released from the Federal Reserve's latest policy meeting on October 31-November 1. These minutes revealed a hawkish tone, indicating that officials are still committed to tightening policy further if progress in controlling inflation falters.

Consequently, this development was seen as a key factor prompting investors to shift away from the non-yielding yellow metal. In the meantime, the recovering US dollar, supported by the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance, has played a major role in deteriorating the value of gold.

Federal Reserve's Stance and Market Dynamics

It's worth noting that the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes reveal a push for keeping interest rates high to tackle inflation. However, many in the market believe the Fed will stick to steady rates and are even considering rate cuts by spring 2024.

Notably, the 10-year US Treasury bond yield is currently low, and the US Dollar is struggling to bounce back from a months-long low. In October, the National Association of Realtors reported a drop in US Existing Home Sales to the lowest level in over 13 years.

Despite this, policymakers are saying they want to be careful about raising interest rates again, suggesting that the Federal Reserve might not increase them further. Many people in the market expect that there could be rate cuts starting around the April 30-May 1 policy meeting next year. Therefore, this uncertainty has led to a slight recovery in the US Dollar, which is affecting gold prices.

Recent Middle East Developments and Market Focus

Another factor contributing to the decline in gold prices is the news that Israel and Hamas have reached an agreement to gradually release 50 hostages in Gaza. Simultaneously, Palestinian prisoners will also be released, and there will be a four-day pause in attacks. These developments have bolstered the risk-on market sentiment, impacting the safe-haven precious metal positively.

Moving ahead, traders are now turning their attention to upcoming US macroeconomic data, including Initial Weekly Jobless Claims, Durable Goods Orders, and the revised Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, for short-term market direction.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's market performance on November 22 presents a nuanced picture as it trades at $1997.265, showing a marginal decline of 0.08%. The pivot point at $2,007 serves as a crucial juncture for determining future price action. Key resistance levels are observed at $2,029, $2,069, and a significant barrier at $2,104. On the downside, immediate supports are identified at $1,969, $1,944, and $1,908, which will be pivotal in curtailing any further price drop.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) stands at 62, suggesting a modest bullish sentiment without crossing into overbought territory. The MACD, currently at 0.91 and above the signal line of 7.72, indicates a potential upward momentum. However, the presence of a triple top pattern around $2008 marks a key resistance, potentially capping the upside.

The 50-Day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at $1,993 supports a bullish trend, as the current price hovers above this marker. This configuration indicates a potential for upward movement, provided the resistance at $2008 is decisively breached.

The overall trend for Gold appears to be cautiously bullish, particularly if it sustains above the $2008 level. However, a break below this resistance-turned-support could shift the sentiment to bearish. In the short term, Gold may test the resistance at $2,029, and its ability to break or hold below this level will be critical in determining the direction for the coming days.

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Daily Price Outlook

During the European session on Tuesday, the USD/CAD currency pair struggled to stop its downward trend and remained well offered around the 1.3710 level. However, the decline in the pair can be attributed to a combination of factors. It should be noted that the Canadian Dollar gained upward momentum against the Greenback due to higher Crude Oil prices, exerting downward pressure on the USD/CAD pair. Meanwhile, the bearish trend in the US dollar, driven by a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve (Fed), was seen as another key factor contributing to the pair's decline.

WTI Crude Oil Prices and OPEC Speculation Impact on CAD/USD Dynamics

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) is trading at around $77.50 per barrel. However, the market is signaling the possibility that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) might choose for further oil production cuts in their upcoming meeting on November 26. Thus, this speculation is exerting a positive impact on the Canadian Dollar as the higher prices of crude oil boost the CAD price and kept the USD/CAD pair lower position.

Potential Impact of Lower Inflation on Bank of Canada and USD/CAD Pair

Furthermore, Canada is preparing for the release of its Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Tuesday. Analysts anticipate a year-on-year inflation rate for October to decrease to 3.2% from the previous 3.8%. If this happens, it could give the Bank of Canada (BoC) with some flexibility to maintain its overnight rate target at 5.0% in the upcoming December meeting. The central bank has explicitly stated that its rate decisions will be guided by economic indicators, and a lower inflation rate may align with their strategy to maintain stability.

Therefore, the lower inflation rate in Canada will ease pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates. This could potentially weaken the Canadian Dollar against the US Dollar, impacting the USD/CAD pair.

USD Faces Challenges Amidst Improved Risk Appetite and Fed Caution

Apart from these indicators, the US Dollar is facing challenges due to the expectations that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will take a more dovish approach. Last week's release of softer inflation figures, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) slowing to 3.2% (YoY) and core CPI dropping to 4.0% (YoY), has made investors rethink the chances of a rate hike in December. Some are even considering the possibility of rate cuts in 2024.

USD/CAD - Technical Analysis

As we delve into the technical stratum of the USD/CAD on November 21, we see the pair ebbing slightly by 0.1%, setting the currency at 1.37104. This minor retreat is set against a larger canvas where investors' vigilance is trained on the Bank of Canada's monetary policy direction and oil price fluctuations, which remain cardinal to the loonie's fortunes.

At the helm of key price points, the USD/CAD grapples with a pivot point situated at 1.3633, suggesting a tentative balance in market forces. Resistance waits patiently at 1.3742, with subsequent battlements at 1.3824 and 1.3929, potentially halting any bullish advances. Support, on the contrary, gathers at 1.3551, with further reinforcements at 1.3443 and 1.3340, ready to cushion any southward drifts.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) rests at 44, nestled in a neutral zone, yet tiptoeing near the bearish territory, signaling a market in contemplation rather than conviction. The MACD, a mere hairbreadth above its signal, whispers the potential for momentum, albeit with a cautious undertone. The proximity of the price to the 50-day EMA at 1.3718 amplifies this sentiment of hesitation.

An upward channel breakout, previously observed, now seems to question its own validity as the pair skirts below the crucial 1.3738 mark. This inflection point is now the fulcrum upon which the near-term market sentiment pivots.

Conclusively, the technical prognosis for the USD/CAD is a cautious one, with a bearish undercurrent below 1.3738. As traders cast their nets wide for the upcoming sessions, the looming resistance at 1.3742 stands as a testament to the pair's resolve, while the currency's movements await further impetus from economic data and commodity price shifts.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold prices (XAU/USD) maintained their upward momentum and regained strong positive traction on Tuesday, hovering near a two-week high. However, this surge in value can be attributed to the bearish performance of the US Dollar, which continues losing ground in the wake of dovish expectations from the Federal Reserve.

In the meantime, the previously released downbeat US macroeconomic data has erased any remaining expectations of additional rate hikes and fueling speculation about a potential series of rate cuts in 2024. This was seen as one of the key factors that led to a decline in US Treasury bond yields and contributed to the gains in the gold price.

Although, the recent upward trajectory in gold prices could be temporary as the ongoing risk-on sentiment in the market is dampening demand for the traditional safe-haven asset, gold. Notably, investors are upbeat about potential stimulus measures from China aimed at strengthening the post-pandemic recovery. Meanwhile, trader seem hesitant to place any strong position as the current attention is now turning to the upcoming release of the FOMC meeting minutes later in the US session.

Gold Price Dynamics Amidst Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations

It is worth noting that the broad-based US Dollar is consistently losing value due to expectations of a dovish stance by Federal Reserve, which is boosting the Gold price. Investors think the Fed has ended increasing interest rates and are now keeping an eye out for when they might start lowering them. Notably, the 2-year US government bond yield is lower than the current Fed target, hinting at a growing momentum for rate cuts.

According to CME's Fedwatch tool, there's about a 30% chance the Fed might cut rates by March 2024, with an expected total easing of nearly 100 basis points by year-end. Hence, the drop in the 10-year Treasury yield is weakening the US Dollar, benefiting Gold amid the overall positive market sentiment.

Furthermore, Federal Reserve officials have not dismissed the chance of further interest rate hikes, especially if economic data indicates a need for such measures. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, in a statement on Monday, suggested that persistent inflation might compel the central bank to maintain higher rates for a longer period than what investors anticipate. Hence, this possible scenario could present a challenge for precious metals like Gold.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

As we step into the trading arena on November 21, gold (XAU/USD) commands attention with its lustrous performance, marking an uplift of 0.72% to stand proudly at $1,992.64. The precious metal, often a haven in tumultuous times, now thrives in a landscape shaped by dovish central bank expectations and a softening greenback.

The pivot point for the session is set at $2,006, with gold casting its gaze towards immediate resistance levels poised at $2,031, $2,068, and the lofty $2,105. These levels are not just numbers but represent psychological barriers that could dictate the metal's journey towards or away from the $2,000-mark. On the downside, the supports at $1,969, $1,943, and $1,908 stand vigilant, ready to catch a faltering price should it retreat.

Technical indicators offer a gleam of bullish hope; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers at 63, signifying a strong buying momentum without venturing into overbought territory. The MACD, with a value of 0.17000, has eclipsed its signal at 5.56000, a beacon of potential growth. Additionally, the gold price, comfortably above the 50 EMA of $1,983, further cements the bullish narrative.

Chart patterns observed suggest an upward channel; a classical sign of sustained positive sentiment. The metal's triumphant breach above recent consolidation augurs well for gold enthusiasts.

In conclusion, the golden allure seems to hold steadfast above the $1,975 benchmark. Assuming this stance remains unchallenged, we may anticipate gold to grace the resistance at $2,031 in the near future. Yet, as the market anticipates the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, every technical prognostication must be weighed against the fulcrum of forthcoming economic revelations.

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The AUD/USD currency pair continued its upward momentum for the third consecutive session and drew some further bids on Tuesday. However, this rally was mainly driven by hawkish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock. Furthermore, the uptrend in the AUD/USD pair was further reinforced by the hawkish tone evident in the RBA's November meeting minutes, as well as the rise in commodity prices. In the meantime, Investor optimism regarding potential additional stimulus measures in China further contributed to the strengthening of the Australian dollar against the US dollar.

Australian Economic Landscape and RBA's Monetary Policy Outlook

It is worth noting that Michele Bullock, the governor of the Reserve Bank of Australia, has highlighted the strength of Australia's job market, expressing confidence in the ongoing positive trend in employment. Bullock also points out that the inflation challenge is not just about supply issues but also about underlying demand. According to her, it is a significant concern for the next couple of years.

During their November meeting, the Reserve Bank of Australia acknowledged a solid reason to hold off on an immediate interest rate increase. However, they also recognized a stronger argument in favor of raising rates due to increasing inflation risks. They highlighted that the decision to raise rates would depend on a thorough examination of data and risk assessment.

In October, Australia experienced a noteworthy surge in employment, adding 55,000 jobs, surpassing the market's anticipated 20,000. The unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7%, aligning with expectations. The Wage Price Index also saw the anticipated growth of 1.3%, with the yearly data reflecting a 4.0% increase, slightly exceeding the expected 3.9%.

Hence, the positive economic indicators, including strong job market and inflation concerns, will strengthen the AUD/USD pair, showing confidence in Australia's economic outlook.

Global Economic Overview and Monetary Policy Developments

On the U.S. front, in October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reported lower figures than expected, with the annual rate declining from 3.7% to 3.2%, below the anticipated 3.3%. The monthly CPI also saw a decrease from 0.4% to 0.0%. The Core CPI in the U.S. increased by 0.2%, falling short of the expected 0.3%, and the annual rate dropped to 4.0% from the preceding 4.1%.

Moreover, Boston Federal Reserve (Fed) President Susan Collins expresses optimism that the Fed can address inflation without negatively impacting the job market through a "patient" approach to interest rates.

The broad-based US dollar has been losing ground and declined to three-month lows, influenced by heightened risk appetite and lower U.S. Treasury yields. This was seen as a crucial factor contributing to the continued strength of the AUD/USD pair. Looking ahead, investors are eyeing U.S. Existing Home Sales and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.

AUD/USD - Technical Analysis

The AUD/USD pair exhibits an optimistic demeanor as the dawn of the trading week witnesses a 0.37% rise, positioning the currency at 0.65826. The ascent comes amidst a broader currency market recalibration, as traders dissect and digest the latest economic symposiums and policy pivots.

At the forefront of resistance, the Aussie dollar eyes the 0.6662 mark with an anticipatory gaze, and beyond lies the challenges at 0.6777 and 0.6895—levels that test the resolve of bulls in the market. Conversely, a narrative of supports unfolds at 0.6469, with subsequent thresholds at 0.6397 and 0.6282, standing by to uphold the currency should it encounter bearish sentiment.

Amidst the technical tableau, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) broadcasts a strong signal at 73, venturing into overbought realms yet depicting a market with an appetite for risk. The MACD corroborates this stance with a positive divergence, hinting at continued propulsion. Notably, the currency's dance above the 50-day EMA of 0.6550 lends credence to the bullish tune.

The charted course reveals an upward channel breakout, a pattern often associated with robust buying interest and bullish continuance. Thus, the currency is set on a trajectory that might soon see it grapple with the immediate resistance laid out at 0.6662.

In summation, the Australian dollar's stance is firmly bullish, anchored above a well-established pivot of 0.6587. The session ahead is ripe with the potential for testing established resistances, contingent on market sentiment and economic undercurrents.

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Despite market expectations for the Bank of England to implement interest rate cuts, the GBP/USD currency pair has sustained its upward momentum, hovering near the psychological mark of 1.2500. However, this upward rally can be attributed to the weaker US Dollar, influenced by dovish Federal Reserve expectations and optimism surrounding Chinese stimulus. These factors are undermining the safe-haven status of the dollar and contributing to the strength of the GBP/USD currency pair.

USD Decline Driven by Dovish Fed and Market Expectations for Rate Cuts

It is worth noting that the broad-based US dollar continues to decline due to the expected dovish stance from the Federal Reserve. Hence, this trend is lifting the GBP/USD pair for the second consecutive day. Investors believe the Fed won't tighten its policy further, especially after a softer US CPI report last week.

Meanwhile, the mounting anticipation in the market that the Fed might start rate cuts as early as March 2024 has driven the yield on the 10-year US government bond to a two-month low. Furthermore, the optimism regarding additional stimulus measures from China is exerting some extra pressure on the safe-haven appeal of the US Dollar, offering support to the GBP/USD pair.

Challenges for GBP/USD Momentum Amid BoE Rate Cut Expectations

On the flip side, the upward movements of the GBP/USD pair could be short-lived as the expectations of the Bank of England (BoE) starting rate cuts in the first half of 2024 limiting its gains. It should be noted that the markets are anticipating the BoE to start a rate-cutting cycle from its 15-year peak. This can be witnessed by the futures, which are already indicating a fully priced-in 25 basis points BoE rate cut for August 2024, with another one expected in November 2024. Hence, these indicators suggest that any positive momentum in the GBP/USD pair might be short-lived.

GBP/USD - Technical Analysis

The British Pound (GBP/USD) notched a 0.19% rise to $1.24855, capturing the market's modest optimism. The pair's pivot point stands at $1.2570, a pivotal level that may pave the way for a test of the immediate resistance at $1.2682. Ascending the ladder, the subsequent resistance levels at $1.2858 and $1.3029 represent potential targets for bullish ambitions. Conversely, a network of support begins at $1.2400, with further floors at $1.2288 and $1.2112, safeguarding against downward pressures.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is teetering on the brink of overbought territory at 69, signaling heightened buying activity that could presage a forthcoming consolidation phase. The MACD's minute crossover above the signal line at 0.00006 against 0.00311 echoes this sentiment, suggesting the presence of upward momentum. Supporting the bullish narrative, the GBP/USD's stance above the 50 EMA of $1.2447 provides a backdrop for potential continuation of the current trend.

The 4-hour chart displays a 'Three White Soldiers' pattern, commonly regarded as a bullish signal, further cementing the case for a continued uptrend. This pattern, in conjunction with the hovering RSI, offers a dual narrative: one of potential continuation and the other cautioning against potential overextension.

The GBP/USD presents a bullish case as long as it sustains levels above $1.24422. Traders are positioned for a potential ascent towards the noted resistances, with the 50 EMA serving as a litmus test for the strength of the ongoing trend.

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Daily Price Outlook

The EUR/USD currency pair maintained its upward momentum and drew some additional bids around above 1.0930 during the European session on Monday. However, the reason for its bullish trend can be attributed to the weakening US dollar and hawkish remarks from ECB policymakers. Notably, the US Dollar started the new week on a bearish note, serving as key factor pushing the EUR/USD pair higher. Moving ahead, traders seem cautious to place any strong position ahead of the release of the FOMC meeting minutes.

US Dollar's Decline and Market Expectations Impacting EUR/USD Pair

It is worth noting that the broad-based US Dollar failed to break its losing streak, reaching a two-and-a-half-month low. However, the driving force behind this trend is the growing belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) is unlikely to raise interest rates. This sentiment gained strength as US data showed that inflation was slowing down more than anticipated. Hence, the decline in the US dollar further boosted the EUR/USD pair.

Moreover, there is a increasing anticipation in the markets for potential rate cuts in the first half of 2024. This has led to a decrease in US Treasury bond yields, with the 10-year bond hitting a two-month low of 4.379% on Friday.

ECB Officials' Hawkish Stance Boosts EUR/USD Pair

Another factor that has been contributing to the upward momentum of the EUR/USD pair is the hawkish stance from European Central Bank (ECB) officials on Friday, rejecting the notion of an early rate cut. Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel cautioned against initiating rate cuts prematurely.

Furthermore, ECB policymaker Robert Holzmann argued that a rate cut in the second quarter would be premature. Thus, this scenario reinforces the short-term positive outlook for the EUR/USD pair, significantly favoring bullish traders.

EUR/USD - Technical Analysis

The EUR/USD experienced a modest ascent in today's trading, appreciating by 0.12% to $1.09244. It finds itself grappling with a pivot point at $1.0999, suggesting a tentative balance between buyers and sellers. A sequence of resistance levels lies overhead, with $1.1081 as the nearest hurdle, followed by $1.1246 and $1.1410, delineating the upper bounds of recent trading ranges. Should the pair wane, immediate support awaits at $1.0835, with successive safety nets at $1.0747 and $1.0583.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) resides at a lofty 75, venturing into overbought territory—a signal that the market may soon seek equilibrium, possibly through a corrective pullback. The MACD's marginal elevation above its signal line at 0.0001 against 0.0038 indicates only the faintest bullish momentum. However, the currency pair's trading above the 50 EMA of $1.0889 corroborates a short-term bullish trend.

The chart showcases a trio of 'Three White Soldiers' candlesticks on the 4-hour chart, a bullish formation typically indicative of a robust buying trend. This pattern aligns with the other indicators to suggest a continuing bullish sentiment.

The EUR/USD's technical posture is cautiously optimistic, maintaining bullishness above the 1.0895 mark. The currency pair's proximity to key technical indicators underpins the possibility of it challenging the immediate resistance level in the near term. However, the elevated RSI warrants vigilance for signs of an impending retracement.

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Daily Price Outlook

Gold price (XAU/USD) failed to extend its upward momentum and dipped to the lower end of the daily trading range during the European session. However, the reason can be linked to the fact that investor sentiment turned positive following Chinese officials' commitment to implementing additional policy support for the struggling real estate sector. This development was seen as a key factor undermining the safe-haven precious metal.

At the same time, the optimism regarding more stimulus measures from China is boosting investor confidence and poses a challenge to safe-haven gold. In contrast to this, the expectations that the Federal Reserve has ended its rate hikes are weakening the US Dollar, providing some support to gold price to limit it deeper losses.

Investors anticipate that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates and may consider lowering them from March 2024. This sentiment is causing the US Dollar to decline to its lowest level since August 31. Amid concerns about the global economy, people are turning to Gold as a potential investment.

Gold's Strength Amid Fed Expectations, Inflation Reports, and Dollar Weakness

Despite some mild losses, the gold continues to show strength as investors believe the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates. However, the recent reports indicating a slowdown in inflation and a decrease in jobless claims, signaling a cooling job market, contribute to this sentiment. Investors are increasingly confident that the Fed will maintain rates at their December 2023 meeting and are even considering a potential 1% rate cut by the end of 2024.

As a result, the change in expectations has caused the 10-year US Treasury yield to decline, benefiting Gold. Meanwhile, the weakness of the US dollar is offering additional support to Gold as the market awaits the upcoming FOMC minutes on Tuesday.

Global Economic Concerns Amid Israel-Hamas Tensions and Chinese Market Moves

Furthermore, the concerns about the situation between Israel and Hamas are raising worries about potential impacts on the global economy, with fears of a recession if the situation escalates. Reports of rejected talks between Israel and the US with Hamas regarding a potential pause in the fighting in exchange for freeing hostages add to the uncertainty. These factors may help limit deeper losses for the safe-haven gold price.

Meanwhile, China's central bank maintaining low interest rates and injecting funds into the markets, coupled with promises to support the struggling real estate sector, are boosting investor confidence. These factors are influencing the safe-haven Gold price against the US Dollar.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's market posture remained unchanged at $1,981, demonstrating a pause after recent movements. On the chart, a pivot point is established at $2,005, serving as a fulcrum for potential swings in price. Resistance levels are charted at $2,030, $2,067, and $2,104, each signifying a potential ceiling that bulls might find challenging to breach. Conversely, supports firm up beneath at $1,970, followed by $1,942 and $1,907, levels where buyers might emerge to bolster the price.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) holds steady at 60, reflecting a market that is neither overextended nor languishing – a balanced terrain where bullish sentiments have a slight edge. The MACD indicator presents a neutral stance, with its line at the threshold of 0 and a signal line at 6.83, hinting at a market in equilibrium awaiting a catalyst. Notably, the gold price floats above the 50 EMA of $1,968, suggesting a bullish trend that has yet to be confirmed by further price action.

The observed chart patterns hint at a consolidation phase, as gold prices hover in a range, suggesting an imminent breakout. The proximity to the 50 EMA and the RSI's position indicates that the path of least resistance may be upwards, provided support levels hold firm.

Gold currently showcases a cautiously bullish trend, especially with the price stationed above the $1,970 mark. The market's conviction will be tested in the near term as it approaches key resistances. A successful challenge of these levels could cement the bullish narrative, while a retreat below $1,970 may tilt the scales in favor of a bearish scenario.

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Daily Price Outlook

During the European trading session, the price of gold (XAU/USD) is maintaining its upward trajectory and consolidating its modest gains. However, this positive movement can be attributed to recent lackluster economic data from the US, notably the subdued figures from the October Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI).

Therefore, this data is reinforcing the belief that the Federal Reserve has concluded its tightening cycle. As a result, market speculation is growing regarding potential interest rate cuts, possibly in the first half of 2024. This anticipation is consequently keeping the yield on the 10-year US government bond at a low, providing support for the price of gold.

Gold Gains as Dollar Falters Amid Fed's Dovish Tone and Mixed US-China Signals

Furthermore, the broad-based US Dollar is struggling to rebound from its lowest point since September 1, prompted by lackluster consumer inflation figures reported on Tuesday. Despite expectations for a potential recovery, the dollar is hampered by dovish sentiments surrounding the Federal Reserve.

Meanwhile, the mixed signals emerging from high-level US-China talks are also enhancing the appeal of the safe-haven asset, Gold. Investors are currently closely monitoring US housing market data and statements from the Federal Reserve for fresh insights. Despite experiencing a recent dip, Gold (XAU/USD) is poised to conclude the week with gains of almost 2.5%, thereby breaking a two-week losing streak that brought it to its lowest level since October 18 on Monday.

Gold Rebounds on Dovish Fed Signals and Economic Indicators

It's noteworthy that Gold has experienced a rebound of over $50 from its recent low, hovering around $1,932-1,931 on Monday. However, this resurgence is driven by the belief that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates further. The recent US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report revealed a slower-than-expected inflation rate, and Thursday's Jobless Claims suggested a cooling job market. October's CPI remained unchanged, with the yearly rate experiencing its smallest increase in two years, rising to 3.2% from September's 3.7%. The number of initial jobless claims rose to 231K from the revised 218K.

Moreover, the decline in oil prices is anticipated to alleviate inflationary pressures, aligning with the Federal Reserve's 2% target and contributing to a softening of its hawkish stance. Numerous Fed officials have echoed progress in the battle against inflation, hinting at a potential conclusion to tightening policies. Traders are now speculating that US interest rates will remain unchanged, with CME Group's FedWatch Tool indicating an increasing probability of a rate cut by March 2024.

Therefore, the yield on the 10-year US government bond has touched a two-month low, leading to a weakened US Dollar and offering support to Gold.

GOLD (XAU/USD) - Technical Analysis

Gold's recent ascent reflects a broader market recalibration as it reaches $1984.67, a modest 0.17% daily uptick. This upward trajectory sees it approaching key resistance levels, with an immediate ceiling at $1971.51 and higher resistance at $2010.866, suggesting a potential test of the $2053.318 mark if the momentum persists. The pivot point for this bull run is firmly planted at $1932.328.

Technical indicators underscore the precious metal's current strength; the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers around 57.04, signaling a positive, yet not overextended, market sentiment. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) corroborates this bullish trend, though it's essential to monitor for any signs of divergence that may signal a momentum shift.

Support levels are carved out at $1900.489 and $1857.329, providing a buffer against potential pullbacks. The 50-day EMA at $1943.359 adds another layer of support, reinforcing the bullish sentiment.

Chart patterns reveal a consolidation phase, with gold prices trading within a narrowing range, hinting at an impending breakout. The asset’s trajectory above the 50 EMA confirms the market's short-term confidence in gold.

In conclusion, gold's current position above critical technical levels suggests a bullish outlook, with expectations that it may soon challenge upper resistance levels.

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